# Kostyuk vs Paolini Kostyuk vs Paolini (Jul 8) Updated: July 8, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Tennis HTML: /markets/sports/tennis/kostyuk-vs-paolini/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Marta Kostyuk to win, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Marta Kostyuk is generally favored by tennis analysts and major sportsbooks to win.** - Kostyuk demonstrates improved service stability, significantly reducing double faults. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** at 70c prices Kostyuk higher than **65%** **model**, implying overvaluation despite her **40%** career grass win rate. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 70.0% | 65.2% | Market higher by 4.8pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 65.2% (Yes) - Market Probability: 70.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: -4.8pp - Expected Return: -6.9% - R-Score: -0.48 - Total Volume: $42,419.94 - 24h Volume: $33,838.92 - Open Interest: $34,554.11 - Expiration: July 22, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This contract, pricing the outcome of the Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon quarterfinal, has traded on a distinct downward trend. It opened at a high of 93.0% for a Kostyuk win before experiencing a sharp 22.0 percentage point drop to 71.0% on July 6. The repricing appears directly tied to the finalization of the quarterfinal matchup. The initial 93.0% price likely reflected high confidence in Kostyuk advancing against her prior opponent, but the market significantly adjusted her win probability downward once the more formidable Jasmine Paolini was confirmed as her next challenger. Volume dynamics support this analysis. Trading was negligible at the initial peak, with only 3.21 contracts traded. Volume increased to 81.04 contracts during the price drop and then surged to over 1,700 contracts as the price settled around the current 70.0% level. This pattern indicates that the initial price lacked conviction, while the move to and consolidation around 70.0% is backed by substantial market participation. The 70.0% mark is now acting as a clear support level. The market sentiment has shifted from overwhelming confidence in Kostyuk to a more measured view, still favoring her as the likely winner but acknowledging a material threat from Paolini. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 July 06, 2026: 22.0pp drop Price decreased from 93.0% to 71.0% **Outcome:** Marta Kostyuk **What happened:** Based on the provided research, there is no credible public record or evidence of a 22.0 percentage point market "drop" associated with Marta Kostyuk on July 6, 2026 [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). On that date, Marta Kostyuk advanced to the quarterfinals of the 2026 Wimbledon Championships, defeating Ashlyn Krueger, while Jasmine Paolini also advanced, setting up their match for July 8, 2026 [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/sports/othersports/993970/jasmine-paolini-alex-eala-wimbledon-2026-marta-kostyuk/story/)[[^]](https://deadspin.com/marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-reach-wimbledon-quarterfinals/). Without evidence of the predicted market movement occurring, no primary driver, social media-related or otherwise, can be identified. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a driver for the specified movement. ## Contract Snapshot Marta Kostyuk's "Yes" resolves if she wins the Kostyuk vs Paolini professional tennis match in the 2026 Wimbledon Women Singles Quarterfinal after a ball has been played; otherwise, it resolves "No." The market opened on July 6, 2026, and closes after the match outcome or by July 22, 2026, with payouts projected 1 minute after closing. Special conditions state that if the match doesn't start (no ball played), it resolves to a fair price, and if a player withdraws or forfeits after the match begins, their "Yes" resolves to "No." ## Market Discussion As of July 8, 2026, prediction markets for the Wimbledon women's quarter-final show varied probabilities, with one platform pricing Marta Kostyuk at 71 cents and Jasmine Paolini at 31 cents to win their respective outcome contracts [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwtamatch/wta-tennis-match/kxwtamatch-26jul08kospao)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/wta-kostyuk-paolini-2026-07-07)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/tennis/events/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-quarter-finals-match-jul-08-2026/). Social media and sports analysis highlight Kostyuk's exceptional recent form, having won 21 of her last 22 matches, contrasting with Paolini's advantage in big-match experience as a 2024 Wimbledon finalist [[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.bets.com.au/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-wimbledon-tips-prediction-live-stream-20260708-0002/)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/). Despite Paolini holding a 2-1 head-to-head lead from previous hardcourt encounters, expert consensus is split, with some analysts favoring Kostyuk's consistency and others backing Paolini's tournament experience [[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/h2h-compare/jasmine-paolini-vs-marta-kostyuk.html)[[^]](https://www.matchsignal.com/tennis/predictions/wta/wimbledon---london/marta-kostyuk---jasmine-paolini/)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8). ## How do Marta Kostyuk's and Jasmine Paolini's career performances on grass courts compare? Marta Kostyuk WTA Grass Record | 10-25 (40%) [[^]](https://tennistonic.com/tennis-news/1024264/h2h-prediction-of-marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-in-wimbledon-with-odds-preview-pick-8th-july-2026/)[[^]](https://www.lta.org.uk/news/2026/june/marta-kostyuk-grass-court-season-history-record-and-past-results/)[[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer.cgi?p=MartaKostyuk)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/players/MartaKostyuk.html) | Jasmine Paolini WTA Grass Record | 11-10 (52.4%) [[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/h2h-compare/jasmine-paolini-vs-marta-kostyuk.html)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/players/JasminePaolini.html)[[^]](https://ausopen.com/articles/news/italian-pocket-rocket-paolini-suddenly-launching-on-grass) | Head-to-Head on Grass | Never competed [[^]](https://tennistonic.com/tennis-news/1024264/h2h-prediction-of-marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-in-wimbledon-with-odds-preview-pick-8th-july-2026/) | **Marta Kostyuk's career grass court performance is statistically her least successful surface** Marta Kostyuk's career grass court performance is statistically her least successful surface. Her WTA-level win-loss record on grass is approximately 10-25 (**40%**) [[^]](https://tennistonic.com/tennis-news/1024264/h2h-prediction-of-marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-in-wimbledon-with-odds-preview-pick-8th-july-2026/)[[^]](https://www.lta.org.uk/news/2026/june/marta-kostyuk-grass-court-season-history-record-and-past-results/)[[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer.cgi?p=MartaKostyuk)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/players/MartaKostyuk.html). Including qualifying matches, her overall career grass court record is approximately 20-19 [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer.cgi?p=MartaKostyuk). Despite this broader record, grass remains her least favorable surface [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer.cgi?p=MartaKostyuk). Jasmine Paolini has recently experienced a significant surge on grass courts. This is notably highlighted by her reaching the 2024 Wimbledon final [[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/h2h-compare/jasmine-paolini-vs-marta-kostyuk.html)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/players/JasminePaolini.html)[[^]](https://ausopen.com/articles/news/italian-pocket-rocket-paolini-suddenly-launching-on-grass). Her career WTA-level grass record stands at approximately 11-10 (**52.4%**) [[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/h2h-compare/jasmine-paolini-vs-marta-kostyuk.html)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/players/JasminePaolini.html)[[^]](https://ausopen.com/articles/news/italian-pocket-rocket-paolini-suddenly-launching-on-grass). Despite Paolini holding a 2-1 head-to-head advantage against Kostyuk on other surfaces, the two players have never competed against each other on grass courts [[^]](https://tennistonic.com/tennis-news/1024264/h2h-prediction-of-marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-in-wimbledon-with-odds-preview-pick-8th-july-2026/). ## What is the consensus from tennis analysts and betting markets for the Kostyuk vs. Paolini quarterfinal? Marta Kostyuk Moneyline Odds | -272 [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-odds-for-wimbledon-quarterfinals) | Jasmine Paolini Moneyline Odds | +215 [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-odds-for-wimbledon-quarterfinals) | Jasmine Paolini Implied Probability (Polymarket) | 69% [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/wta-kostyuk-paolini-2026-07-07) | **Most tennis analysts and major sportsbooks generally favor Marta Kostyuk to win her Wimbledon 2026 quarterfinal match against Jasmine Paolini [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-odds-for-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.freetips.com/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-betting-tips-20260708-0004/)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://legalbet.uk/tips/marta-kostyuk-zhasmin-paolini-simon-dalton/)[[^]](https://www.bets.com.au/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-wimbledon-tips-prediction-live-stream-20260708-0002/)** Most tennis analysts and major sportsbooks generally favor Marta Kostyuk to win her Wimbledon 2026 quarterfinal match against Jasmine Paolini [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-odds-for-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.freetips.com/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-betting-tips-20260708-0004/)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://legalbet.uk/tips/marta-kostyuk-zhasmin-paolini-simon-dalton/)[[^]](https://www.bets.com.au/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-wimbledon-tips-prediction-live-stream-20260708-0002/). Betting markets widely support this view, listing Kostyuk as a strong favorite with moneyline odds around -272, while Paolini is seen as a +215 underdog [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-odds-for-wimbledon-quarterfinals). This consensus is largely driven by Kostyuk's superior recent form and consistent performance throughout the 2026 season [[^]](https://www.freetips.com/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-betting-tips-20260708-0004/)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://legalbet.uk/tips/marta-kostyuk-zhasmin-paolini-simon-dalton/)[[^]](https://www.bets.com.au/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-wimbledon-tips-prediction-live-stream-20260708-0002/). However, some data presents a conflicting view for the match. One prediction **market** source indicates Paolini at a **69%** implied **probability** on Polymarket, which contrasts with the widespread opinion among professional tennis analysts and major sportsbooks [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/sports/wta-kostyuk-paolini-2026-07-07). Despite Paolini holding a 2-1 lead in their career head-to-head record, they have never competed on grass [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). Analysts point to Kostyuk's aggressive style and effective return game as being particularly well-suited for the grass surface [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). While some experts acknowledge Paolini's experience as a former Wimbledon finalist, they still anticipate a potentially close, three-set match [[^]](https://www.freetips.com/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-betting-tips-20260708-0004/)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://legalbet.uk/tips/marta-kostyuk-zhasmin-paolini-simon-dalton/)[[^]](https://www.bets.com.au/tennis/wimbledon/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-wimbledon-tips-prediction-live-stream-20260708-0002/). ## How might the dynamics of their previous head-to-head matches on hard courts translate to the 2026 Wimbledon grass surface? Head-to-head record | Paolini leads Kostyuk 2-1 (all on hard courts) [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/h2h-odds-bets/Jasmine%20Paolini/Marta%20Kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.blogarama.com/sports-blogs/1344286-free-picks-pick-dawgz-blog/77910023-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-prediction-782026-todayas-tennis) | 2026 Wimbledon Match Surface | First grass-court encounter [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.blogarama.com/sports-blogs/1344286-free-picks-pick-dawgz-blog/77910023-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-prediction-782026-todayas-tennis) | Paolini's Wimbledon history | 2024 Wimbledon finalist [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4530948/no-match-play-no-attention-no-expectation-no-problem-for-marta-kostyuk) | **Previous hard-court encounters offer limited insight for their upcoming grass-court match** Previous hard-court encounters offer limited insight for their upcoming grass-court match. Jasmine Paolini holds a 2-1 lead over Marta Kostyuk in their head-to-head record, with all three previous matches contested on hard courts between 2022 and 2023 [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/h2h-odds-bets/Jasmine%20Paolini/Marta%20Kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.blogarama.com/sports-blogs/1344286-free-picks-pick-dawgz-blog/77910023-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-prediction-782026-todayas-tennis). However, their quarterfinal match at the 2026 Wimbledon Championships, scheduled for July 8, 2026, will be their first encounter on a grass court, indicating that the dynamics of their past hard-court contests may not directly translate to this new surface [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.blogarama.com/sports-blogs/1344286-free-picks-pick-dawgz-blog/77910023-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-prediction-782026-todayas-tennis). Both players enter Wimbledon's quarterfinals with distinct strengths on grass. Marta Kostyuk has demonstrated recent improvement on grass after experiencing historical struggles with the surface [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4530948/no-match-play-no-attention-no-expectation-no-problem-for-marta-kostyuk). Jasmine Paolini, notably a 2024 Wimbledon finalist, is recognized for her speed, variety, and extensive big-match experience [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4530948/no-match-play-no-attention-no-expectation-no-problem-for-marta-kostyuk). Both athletes are entering this match with strong momentum, having reached their first (Kostyuk) and second (Paolini) Wimbledon quarterfinals, respectively [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4530948/no-match-play-no-attention-no-expectation-no-problem-for-marta-kostyuk). Analysts offer split predictions for the quarterfinal, highlighting different advantages. Predictions for the Wimbledon quarterfinal are divided [[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.blogarama.com/sports-blogs/1344286-free-picks-pick-dawgz-blog/77910023-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-prediction-782026-todayas-tennis). Some analysts favor Kostyuk, citing her current form and aggressive style of play. Others highlight Paolini's experience and movement as crucial advantages on grass [[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/07/07/wimbledon-quarterfinal-predictions-paolini-kostyuk/)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-pick-odds-wimbledon-quarterfinals-wednesday-july-8)[[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-preview-prediction-2026-wimbledon-championships-quarter-final-204452)[[^]](https://www.blogarama.com/sports-blogs/1344286-free-picks-pick-dawgz-blog/77910023-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini-prediction-782026-todayas-tennis). ## What specific performance metrics for Kostyuk and Paolini in the first four rounds of Wimbledon 2026 signal potential advantages? Kostyuk Double Faults (R3/R4 vs R2) | 3 vs 11 [[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html) | Paolini Second Serve Win Rate (R3) | 68% vs Emma Navarro [[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals) | Paolini Net Points Won (last 3 matches) | 71% (53 of 75) [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://mungomash.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon-2026/matches/womens-singles/2026-07-03-paolini-sakkari/) | **Marta Kostyuk demonstrates improved service stability, reducing double faults significantly** Marta Kostyuk demonstrates improved service stability, reducing double faults significantly. She notably reduced her double faults to a combined total of three in her third and fourth-round matches at Wimbledon 2026, a substantial decrease compared to the eleven double faults recorded in her second-round victory [[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html). This enhanced service game stability signals a potential advantage. Jasmine Paolini exhibits consistent second-serve reliability and a strong net game. Throughout Wimbledon 2026, she has maintained strong second-serve percentages, winning **65%** of her second-serve points against Alexandra Eala in the fourth round and consistently achieving above **50%** in prior matches, including **68%** against Emma Navarro in the third round [[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). Her net play is also a significant asset, with Paolini winning **71%** (53 of 75) of her net points across her past three matches [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://mungomash.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon-2026/matches/womens-singles/2026-07-03-paolini-sakkari/). Paolini also shows high tactical efficiency and first-serve performance under pressure. She won **84%** of her first-serve points against Maria Sakkari [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://mungomash.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon-2026/matches/womens-singles/2026-07-03-paolini-sakkari/). In her fourth-round win over Alexandra Eala, Paolini landed **70%** of her first serves and won **62%** of those points. Crucially, during the decisive third set of that match, she won **94%** of her first-serve points, dropped only five points on serve, and faced no break points, underscoring her ability to perform effectively in critical moments [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). ## How does each player's form and fatigue level, based on their path through the 2026 Wimbledon draw, compare? Quarterfinal Match Date | Wednesday, July 8, 2026 [[^]](https://www.olympics.com/en/news/wimbledon-2026-order-of-play-8-july-all-matches-complete-schedule)[[^]](https://m.aiscore.com/tennis/match-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini/oj7xruvljeos47g) | Marta Kostyuk's Recent Form | Won 20 of her last 21 matches [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531611/separating-results-from-self-worth-has-freed-marta-kostyuk-up)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4530948/no-match-play-no-attention-no-expectation-no-problem-for-marta-kostyuk) | Jasmine Paolini R16 Match Duration | 2 hours 22 minutes [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/tennis/player/_/id/2615/jasmine-paolini) | **The quarterfinal match between Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini is scheduled for today, Wednesday, July 8, 2026 [[^]](https://www.olympics.com/en/news/wimbledon-2026-order-of-play-8-july-all-matches-complete-schedule)[[^]](https://m.aiscore.com/tennis/match-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini/oj7xruvljeos47g)** The quarterfinal match between Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini is scheduled for today, Wednesday, July 8, 2026 [[^]](https://www.olympics.com/en/news/wimbledon-2026-order-of-play-8-july-all-matches-complete-schedule)[[^]](https://m.aiscore.com/tennis/match-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini/oj7xruvljeos47g). Their respective journeys through the Wimbledon draw have presented a contrast in terms of efficiency and physical demand, potentially impacting their current form and fatigue levels. Marta Kostyuk arrives in peak form with an efficient path. The 12th-seeded Kostyuk has navigated a relatively efficient path to her first Wimbledon quarterfinal [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/tennis/news/ukraines-marta-kostyuk-advances-to-wimbledon-quarterfinals-as-roger-federer-pays-visit)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). Her Round of 16 victory over Ashlyn Krueger was a straightforward 6-4, 6-4 affair [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/tennis/news/ukraines-marta-kostyuk-advances-to-wimbledon-quarterfinals-as-roger-federer-pays-visit)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). Despite an ankle injury preventing her from playing any grass-court warm-up matches, Kostyuk enters the quarterfinals in career-best form, having won 20 of her last 21 matches, which includes a Madrid WTA 1000 title and a Roland-Garros semifinal appearance [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/c2lyyw2e4d7o)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531611/separating-results-from-self-worth-has-freed-marta-kostyuk-up)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4530948/no-match-play-no-attention-no-expectation-no-problem-for-marta-kostyuk). In contrast, Jasmine Paolini endured a more demanding path to the quarterfinals. The 13th-seeded Paolini's progression to her second Wimbledon quarterfinal has been more strenuous [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/tennis/player/_/id/2615/jasmine-paolini). Her Round of 16 victory against Alexandra Eala was a grueling 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 match that extended to 2 hours and 22 minutes [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/tennis/player/_/id/2615/jasmine-paolini). Paolini's season has been marked by persistent foot injury issues and inconsistent form, though she has shown resilience at Wimbledon 2026 through several gritty, hard-fought wins [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals). ## What Could Change the Odds **The quarterfinal match between Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini at the 2026 Wimbledon Championships is scheduled for Wednesday, July 8, 2026 [[^]](https://www.flashscore.com/match/tennis/kostyuk-marta-8CZqQdSa/paolini-jasmine-noaX0EJn/)[[^]](https://www.livescore.com/en/tennis/wimbledon/wimbledon-2026/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini/1819178/)[[^]](https://www.royalscore.com/tennis/match/Marta-Kostyuk-vs-Jasmine-Paolini/08-07-2026/2815514)[[^]](https://m.aiscore.com/tennis/match-marta-kostyuk-jasmine-paolini/oj7xruvljeos47g)[[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html).** This match is not on July 22, 2026, as no WTA tournaments are scheduled for that date; the tour transitions to mid-July events like the Iasi Open and Hamburg Ladies Open, which commence around July 13, 2026 [[^]](https://wtafiles.wtatennis.com/pdf/calendar/calendar.pdf)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/tennis/schedule/_/type/wta)[[^]](https://tennistourcalendar.com/2026-wta-tour-calendar/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_WTA_Tour). **Key takeaway.** Jasmine Paolini leads the head-to-head series against Marta Kostyuk 2-1, with their Wimbledon quarterfinal representing their first encounter on grass [[^]](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4531622/paolini-pips-eala-becomes-first-italian-woman-with-multiple-wimbledon-quarterfinals)[[^]](https://tennis-db.com/wta/rivalries/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini?player1_id=balldontlie_wta%3A20&player2_id=balldontlie_wta%3A7)[[^]](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/wimbledon/preview/marta-kostyuk-vs-jasmine-paolini-prediction-form-head-to-head_600783.html). ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** July 22, 2026 - **Closes:** July 22, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - The quarterfinal match between Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini at the 2026 Wimbledon Championships is scheduled for Wednesday, July 8, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . - This match is not on July 22, 2026, as no WTA tournaments are scheduled for that date; the tour transitions to mid-July events like the Iasi Open and Hamburg Ladies Open, which commence around July 13, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] . - Jasmine Paolini leads the head-to-head series against Marta Kostyuk 2-1, with their Wimbledon quarterfinal representing their first encounter on grass [^] [^] [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks](/markets/sports/aussie-rules/adelaide-crows-vs-hawthorn-hawks/) - [Djurgarden vs Sirius](/markets/sports/soccer/djurgarden-vs-sirius/) - [APF Division de Honor Apertura Champion](/markets/sports/soccer/apf-division-de-honor-apertura-champion/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXWTAMATCH-26JUL07PEGGAU-PEG: NO (Jul 07, 2026) - KXWTAMATCH-26JUL07PEGGAU-GAU: YES (Jul 07, 2026) - KXWTAMATCH-26JUL07OSAMUC-OSA: NO (Jul 07, 2026) - KXWTAMATCH-26JUL07OSAMUC-MUC: YES (Jul 07, 2026) - KXWTAMATCH-26JUL06KEYNOS-NOS: YES (Jul 06, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/tennis/kostyuk-vs-paolini If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.