# 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Updated: September 1, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: US Open, ATP, Tennis

HTML: /markets/sports/us-open/2026-men-s-us-open-winner-tennis/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Carlos Alcaraz is considered unlikely to win the 2026 Men’s US Open, with the tournament in its early stages and no winner yet determined, priced at **33.0%**.

## Key Claims (September 2026)

**- - Carlos Alcaraz remains favored, despite a four-month layoff from a right wrist injury.** - Alexander Zverev's top seeding and strong 2026 Grand Slam form bolster his position.

## Market Behavior & Drivers

Carlos Alcaraz's recent four-month layoff from a right wrist injury presents a significant physical challenge despite his first-round match win.

The contract for Carlos Alcaraz to win the 2026 Men's US Open saw its largest single-day gain on August 31. The 9.0 percentage point spike, from 25.5% to 34.5%, coincided with his straight-sets victory over Roman Safiullin in the tournament's first round. Alcaraz is the defending champion.

An earlier 8.5 point increase on August 20, which lifted the implied probability from 18.0% to 26.5%, has no clear driver in available reporting. This move occurred before the tournament began on August 30.

The market has registered zero traded contracts. The price trajectory, which shows an overall upward trend from 13.5% to a current 33.5%, reflects price adjustments without any backing from trader activity. This lack of volume indicates the price changes do not represent shifts in market sentiment or conviction.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Novak Djokovic | 0.0% | 0.0% | Determined: NO |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 33.0% | 28.1% | His recent four-month layoff due to a right wrist injury presents a significant physical challenge for the tournament. |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 4.0% | 4.7% | Higher-ranked contenders like Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are more favored in the tournament. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Novak Djokovic | 0.0% | — |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 33.0% | 28.1% |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 4.0% | 4.7% |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0.0% | — |
| Arthur Fils | 0.0% | — |
| Alexander Zverev | 23.7% | 26.9% |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.0% | — |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3.5% | 4.1% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Ben Shelton | 8.1% | 9.2% |
| Taylor Fritz | 7.5% | 8.6% |
| Jannik Sinner | 0.0% | — |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Jack Draper | 0.0% | — |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Brandon Nakashima | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| Holger Rune | 0.0% | — |
| Tommy Paul | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Learner Tien | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Rafael Jodar | 5.2% | 6.1% |
| Alexander Blockx | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Alex de Minaur | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.1% | — |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.1% | — |
| Luciano Darderi | 0.1% | — |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.1% | — |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Jaume Munar | 0.1% | — |
| Ignacio Buse | 0.1% | — |
| Mariano Navone | 0.1% | — |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0.0% | — |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 0.1% | — |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0.1% | — |
| Casper Ruud | 0.1% | — |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.1% | — |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0.1% | — |
| Ugo Humbert | 0.0% | — |
| Other | 0.0% | — |
| Nuno Borges | 0.0% | — |
| Sebastian Baez | 0.0% | — |
| Gael Monfils | — | — |

- Expiration: September 13, 2026

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Carlos Alcaraz

#### 📈 August 31, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.5% to 34.5%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point price spike for Carlos Alcaraz on August 31, 2026, was his successful first-round match at the 2026 Men's US Open [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/cm2m3484v4xo)[[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-31/defending_champ_carlos_alcaraz_wins_comeback_match_at_2026_us_open.html)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-safiullin-us-open-2026-monday). On that date, Alcaraz, the defending champion, defeated Roman Safiullin in straight sets (6-4, 6-4, 6-4) to advance to the second round [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-safiullin-us-open-2026-monday)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-results). This strong performance early in the tournament by a top contender likely increased market confidence in his potential to win, directly preceding the price movement [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/cm2m3484v4xo)[[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-31/defending_champ_carlos_alcaraz_wins_comeback_match_at_2026_us_open.html)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-safiullin-us-open-2026-monday)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/32833/13579551/us-open-2026-carlos-alcaraz-impresses-on-return-from-injury-as-aryna-sabalenka-harriet-dart-also-win). Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver based on the available information.

#### 📈 August 20, 2026: 8.5pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 26.5%

**What happened:** No primary driver for the 8.5 percentage point spike in Carlos Alcaraz's odds on August 20, 2026, can be identified from the provided web research. The available sources indicate the 2026 US Open tournament began on August 30, 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_(tennis))[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-results), with Carlos Alcaraz winning a match on August 31, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-31/defending_champ_carlos_alcaraz_wins_comeback_match_at_2026_us_open.html)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/cm2m3484v4xo). These events occurred *after* the reported price movement. There is no information detailing social media activity, news announcements, or market factors specifically on or before August 20, 2026, that would explain the spike. Therefore, social media activity, traditional news, or market factors cannot be determined as a primary driver or contributing accelerant based on the provided data, as relevant information for the specified date is absent.

### Outcome: Alexander Zverev

#### 📈 August 21, 2026: 9.4pp spike

Price increased from 11.5% to 20.8%

**What happened:** The primary driver of Alexander Zverev's prediction market spike on August 21, 2026, was likely the traditional news that he became the No. 1 seed for the 2026 US Open following the withdrawal of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_singles)[[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-27/carlos_alcaraz_alexander_zverev_lead_mens_singles_draw_at_the_2026_us_open.html)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/32833/13577827/us-open-draw-schedule-results-from-the-final-grand-slam-tournament-of-2026-at-flushing-meadows-in-new-york). This significant development, which elevated Zverev's championship prospects, was confirmed by August 27, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-27/carlos_alcaraz_alexander_zverev_lead_mens_singles_draw_at_the_2026_us_open.html), making it a highly probable cause for the market movement on August 21, 2026. The provided research contains no evidence of specific social media activity or viral narratives impacting the market, suggesting social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" for the player who wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament. A "No" resolution is triggered for any listed player if it becomes impossible for them to win the tournament. The tournament is scheduled from August 23 to September 13, 2026; if it's cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or no winner is declared by then, the market resolves to "Other." Resolution relies primarily on official U.S. Open information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.

## Market Discussion

The market discussion indicates Carlos Alcaraz (34%) and Alexander Zverev (23.8%) are the top contenders for the 2026 Men's US Open title. Alcaraz's strong return from injury and Jannik Sinner's withdrawal are seen as boosts, while Zverev benefits from being the top seed, recent major success, and favorable draw. Arguments against strong certainty for any single player include the overall competitiveness of the field, variable player match sharpness, and the unpredictable nature of best-of-five set matches on Laykold courts.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alejandro Tabilo | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $13,093.09 | $0 |
| Alex de Minaur | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | $123,028.38 | $0 |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $58,305.25 | $0 |
| Alexander Blockx | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $126,185.85 | $0 |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $368,012.92 | $0 |
| Alexander Zverev | 23.7% | 23.8% | 23.7% | $630,506.01 | $0 |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $475,160.22 | $0 |
| Arthur Fils | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $688,822.96 | $0 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $57,597.68 | $0 |
| Ben Shelton | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | $531,890.74 | $0 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | $219,201.85 | $0 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 33% | 34% | 33% | $1,237,428.93 | $0 |
| Casper Ruud | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $12,117.74 | $0 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | $551,440.3 | $0 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 4% | 4.2% | 4% | $965,146.11 | $0 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | $440,528.12 | $0 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | $504,446.85 | $0 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $60,068.17 | $0 |
| Gael Monfils | — | 0.1% | — | $0 | $0 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $950,843.82 | $0 |
| Holger Rune | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $204,793.83 | $0 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $409,492.85 | $0 |
| Ignacio Buse | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $41,000 | $0 |
| Jack Draper | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $394,364.12 | $0 |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | $484,137.94 | $0 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $18,000 | $0 |
| Jannik Sinner | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $516,969.27 | $0 |
| Jaume Munar | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $44,819.75 | $0 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $620,404.31 | $0 |
| Joao Fonseca | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $583,458.63 | $0 |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $84,840.82 | $0 |
| Learner Tien | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | $134,926.34 | $0 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | $543,588.5 | $0 |
| Luciano Darderi | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $58,235.25 | $0 |
| Mariano Navone | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $34,092 | $0 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $30,265 | $0 |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $566,202.97 | $0 |
| Novak Djokovic | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,395,326.58 | $0 |
| Nuno Borges | — | 0.1% | — | $0 | $0 |
| Other | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Rafael Jodar | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | $128,060.4 | $0 |
| Sebastian Baez | — | 0.1% | — | $0 | $0 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | $83,004.53 | $0 |
| Taylor Fritz | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | $519,591.19 | $0 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,000 | $0 |
| Tommy Paul | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | $192,673.37 | $0 |
| Ugo Humbert | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,000 | $0 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | $47,174.27 | $0 |
| Zizou Bergs | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $9,000 | $0 |

## How do top contenders Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev compare in career head-to-head performance on hard courts?

Overall Head-to-Head Record | Alexander Zverev leads Carlos Alcaraz 6-5 (as of Sep 1, 2026) [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/carlos-alcaraz-vs-alexander-zverev/a0e2/z355) |
Zverev's 2026 US Open Title Probability | 22.9% [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html) |
2026 US Open Prediction Market Favorite | Jannik Sinner [[^]](https://predictioncircle.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)[[^]](https://predictionhero.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis) |

**Alexander Zverev currently leads Carlos Alcaraz in their career head-to-head encounters**

Alexander Zverev currently leads Carlos Alcaraz in their career head-to-head encounters. As of September 1, 2026, Zverev holds a 6-5 advantage in match victories [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/carlos-alcaraz-vs-alexander-zverev/a0e2/z355). On hard courts, Zverev has recorded notable wins against Alcaraz, including the 2021 Vienna semifinals, the 2021 Acapulco Round of 32, the 2024 ATP Finals, and a 2025 Cincinnati semifinal [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/alexander-zverev-vs-carlos-alcaraz/z355/a0e2)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/h2h-compare/alexander-zverev-vs-carlos-alcaraz.html)[[^]](https://tennistonic.com/head-to-head-compare/Carlos-Alcaraz-Vs-Alexander-Zverev/)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/carlos-alcaraz-vs-alexander-zverev/a0e2/z355). Alcaraz has also achieved significant hard-court victories, such as the 2024 Australian Open quarterfinal, the 2025 Cincinnati Masters semifinal, and a 2026 Australian Open semifinal [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/alexander-zverev-vs-carlos-alcaraz/z355/a0e2)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/h2h-compare/alexander-zverev-vs-carlos-alcaraz.html)[[^]](https://tennistonic.com/head-to-head-compare/Carlos-Alcaraz-Vs-Alexander-Zverev/)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/carlos-alcaraz-vs-alexander-zverev/a0e2/z355).

Jannik Sinner is the top contender for the 2026 US Open. Leading up to the tournament, prediction markets indicate Sinner as the foremost favorite [[^]](https://predictioncircle.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)[[^]](https://predictionhero.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis). Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are both recognized as strong potential winners, though their projected probabilities are lower than Sinner's [[^]](https://predictioncircle.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)[[^]](https://predictionhero.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis). Specifically, Alexander Zverev is forecast with a **22.9%** predicted **probability** of winning the 2026 US Open title, placing him among the significant contenders [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html).

## What does Daniil Medvedev's historical performance and win-loss record at the US Open indicate about his potential in the 2026 tournament?

US Open Career Win-Loss Record | 33-9 (.786) as of 2026 [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev) |
US Open Titles | 1 (2021) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniil_Medvedev_career_statistics) |
2026 US Open Winning Probability | 3.8% (Tennis Abstract) [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html) |

**Daniil Medvedev exhibits a strong historical record at the US Open**

Daniil Medvedev exhibits a strong historical record at the US Open. He holds a career win-loss record of 33-9 (.786) at the tournament as of 2026 [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev). This consistent performance is highlighted by his victory in the 2021 tournament and reaching the finals in both 2019 and 2023 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniil_Medvedev_career_statistics)[[^]](https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/players/28836-d.medvedev). These past successes underscore his status as a formidable competitor at the event.

Despite past success, Medvedev faces low odds for the 2026 title. As of September 1, 2026, he has advanced to the second round of the current US Open [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/sports/tennis/drama-free-medvedev-eases-into-us-open-second-round-2026-08-30/). However, various prediction markets currently assign him a very low **probability** of winning the 2026 Men's US Open, generally ranging from 2-**5%** [[^]](https://predictparity.com/markets/p/will-daniil-medvedev-win-the-2026-mens-us-open)[[^]](https://www.frenzycap.com/predictions/polymarket/0x2212033b5adefa053fe4c71067daa55118aa7e97cd9599f3d31d49bbc5778674)[[^]](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/**market**/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis/)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/tennis/events/2026-mens-singles-us-open-winner-sep-13-2026/). Specifically, Tennis Abstract's forecast indicates a **3.8%** chance of him winning the 2026 tournament, with further estimates of a **35.7%** likelihood for reaching the quarterfinals and **17.0%** for the semifinals [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html).

## How has the 2026 US Open draw, including early-round upsets, impacted the probable paths to the final for Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev?

Carlos Alcaraz implied win probability | 26-35% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatp/mens-tournament-winner/kxatp-26uso)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/open/2026/08/29/us-open-2026-odds-favorites-mens-womens-singles-draw/91506442007/) |
Carlos Alcaraz semi-final probability | 24.4% [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html) |
Daniil Medvedev implied win probability | 2-3% [[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/us-open-tennis-2026-odds-polymarket-kalshi-sportsbooks) |

**Carlos Alcaraz's path to the final looks favorable due to recent events**

Carlos Alcaraz's path to the final looks favorable due to recent events. As the second seed and defending champion, he is the betting favorite for the 2026 US Open, with an implied **probability** of winning ranging from **26%** to **35%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatp/mens-tournament-winner/kxatp-26uso)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/open/2026/08/29/us-open-2026-odds-favorites-mens-womens-singles-draw/91506442007/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis/will-daniil-medvedev-win-the-2026-mens-us-open)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/us-open-tennis-2026-odds-polymarket-kalshi-sportsbooks). This position is further strengthened by his strong track record and the withdrawal of Jannik Sinner, previously a pre-tournament favorite, due to a right knee injury [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatp/mens-tournament-winner/kxatp-26uso)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/open/2026/08/29/us-open-2026-odds-favorites-mens-womens-singles-draw/91506442007/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis/will-daniil-medvedev-win-the-2026-mens-us-open)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/us-open-tennis-2026-odds-polymarket-kalshi-sportsbooks). The early-round upset of Novak Djokovic by Mariano Navone also potentially removes a significant obstacle in the bottom half of the draw, as Alcaraz could have faced Djokovic in the semi-finals [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-scouting-report)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovic-navone-us-open-2026-r1)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovic-us-open-2026-r1-upset-shocking-facts). Current models predict Alcaraz has a **24.4%** chance to reach the semi-finals and a **6.7%** **probability** of winning the tournament [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html).

Daniil Medvedev enters the tournament as a significant underdog with a less clear path. The 2021 US Open champion is the No. 8 seed, with prediction markets assigning him an implied **probability** of approximately 2-**3%** to win the 2026 US Open [[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/us-open-tennis-2026-odds-polymarket-kalshi-sportsbooks)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-scouting-report). His forecasted **probability** of reaching the semi-finals stands at **17.0%**, and his **probability** of winning the tournament is **3.8%** [[^]](https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2026USOpenMenForecast.html). While Novak Djokovic's early exit could generally benefit other top players by eliminating a major competitor from the bottom half of the draw, the available research does not detail the specific impact on Medvedev's individual route to the final [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovic-navone-us-open-2026-r1)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovic-us-open-2026-r1-upset-shocking-facts).

## Are there any lingering injury concerns or notable dips in performance for top seeds like Alexander Zverev or Jannik Sinner heading into the second week of the 2026 US Open?

Jannik Sinner Status | Withdrew from 2026 US Open due to persistent right knee injury [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-us-open-2026-withdrawal)[[^]](https://www.si.com/onsi/serve/news/jannik-sinner-withdraws-from-us-open-with-ongoing-knee-injury-01m0k0k4smb9)[[^]](https://www.complex.com/bets/a/matt-burke/will-carlos-alcaraz-jannik-sinner-play-us-open) |
Alexander Zverev Status | Competing as top seed, won Roland Garros, reached Wimbledon final, no new injury concerns [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/us-open-top-seed-zverev-170743373.html)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-scouting-report)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-draw-preview) |
Carlos Alcaraz Status | Returned after four-month layoff due to right wrist injury [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovic-navone-us-open-2026-r1)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-us-open-2026-journey-back-feature)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-us-open-2026-preview)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-draw-preview) |

**Jannik Sinner will not compete in the 2026 US Open due to injury**

Jannik Sinner will not compete in the 2026 US Open due to injury. He withdrew from the tournament because of a persistent right knee injury [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-us-open-2026-withdrawal)[[^]](https://www.si.com/onsi/serve/news/jannik-sinner-withdraws-from-us-open-with-ongoing-knee-injury-01m0k0k4smb9)[[^]](https://www.complex.com/bets/a/matt-burke/will-carlos-alcaraz-jannik-sinner-play-us-open). Consequently, there are no ongoing injury concerns for Sinner as he is not participating in the event.

Alexander Zverev enters the second week with strong form and no new injury concerns. Competing as the top seed, he is reported to be in top form, having won his first major at Roland Garros and reaching the Wimbledon final [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/us-open-top-seed-zverev-170743373.html)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-scouting-report). There are no notable reports of new injury concerns for Zverev heading into the second week of the tournament [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-scouting-report)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-draw-preview). He is considered one of the primary favorites for the title, despite downplaying his own status [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/us-open-top-seed-zverev-170743373.html)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/page/picks*/us-open-2026-expert-picks-alcaraz-sabalenka-gauff)[[^]](https://rg.org/news/tennis/us-open-mens-odds-predictions-best-bets)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/us-open-predictions-picks-odds-150000547.html).

Other top seeds have faced physical challenges, influencing pre-tournament predictions. Carlos Alcaraz returned to competition after a four-month layoff due to a right wrist injury, and Novak Djokovic reportedly struggled physically during his first-round match [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovic-navone-us-open-2026-r1)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-us-open-2026-journey-back-feature)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-us-open-2026-preview)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-draw-preview). Despite Zverev's strong form, prediction markets at the start of the tournament listed Alcaraz with a higher implied **probability** of winning compared to Zverev [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-2026-mens-us-open)[[^]](https://rg.org/news/tennis/us-open-mens-odds-predictions-best-bets)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/us-open-predictions-picks-odds-150000547.html)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis).

## What recent performance metrics from the 2026 season justify Jannik Sinner's status as a leading favorite for the US Open title?

2026 Grand Slam Titles | 1 (Wimbledon) [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-infosys-atp-beyond-the-numbers-may-2026) |
2026 Match Record | 44-3 through July 13 [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/-/media/files/rankings-and-stats/rankings-info-reports-by-the-numbers/2026-atp-by-the-numbers-as-of-july-13.pdf) |
ATP World Ranking | No. 1 with 13,450 points as of September 2026 [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/-/media/files/rankings-and-stats/rankings-info-reports-by-the-numbers/2026-atp-by-the-numbers-as-of-july-13.pdf)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles/live) |

**Jannik Sinner’s dominant 2026 season performance solidified his status as a top US Open contender**

Jannik Sinner’s dominant 2026 season performance solidified his status as a top US Open contender. Prior to the tournament, Sinner had an exceptional 2026 season, marked by his fifth career Grand Slam title at Wimbledon in July [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-infosys-atp-beyond-the-numbers-may-2026). His historic success at ATP Masters 1000 events included winning the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) without dropping a set, alongside additional titles in Monte-Carlo and Rome [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-infosys-atp-beyond-the-numbers-may-2026)[[^]](https://www.olympics.com/en/news/italian-open-2026-jannik-sinner-record-consecutive-atp-masters-1000-wins-tennis-results)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/HardcoreItalians/posts/jannik-sinner-has-been-hailed-as-nearly-untouchable-on-hard-courts-after-a-drama/1464139515756553/)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-medvedev-indian-wells-2026-final)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz-sinner-monte-carlo-2026-final). As of July 13, 2026, he led the ATP with 44 match wins (44-3 record), 6 singles titles, and 10 victories against Top 10 opponents [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/-/media/files/rankings-and-stats/rankings-info-reports-by-the-numbers/2026-atp-by-the-numbers-as-of-july-13.pdf). He also maintained a perfect 29-0 record in ATP Masters 1000 matches up to mid-July [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/-/media/files/rankings-and-stats/rankings-info-reports-by-the-numbers/2026-atp-by-the-numbers-as-of-july-13.pdf). Statistically, Sinner demonstrated elite dominance, winning approximately **94.3%** of his service games and achieving a **31.9%** return-game win rate, supported by an overhauled serve that boosted his ace count [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner-infosys-atp-beyond-the-numbers-may-2026)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/HardcoreItalians/posts/jannik-sinner-has-been-hailed-as-nearly-untouchable-on-hard-courts-after-a-drama/1464139515756553/)[[^]](https://www.tennisratio.com/players/JannikSinner.html). He held the World No. 1 ranking in the PIF ATP Rankings, with 13,450 points as of September 2026 [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/-/media/files/rankings-and-stats/rankings-info-reports-by-the-numbers/2026-atp-by-the-numbers-as-of-july-13.pdf)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles/live), and was the initial **market** favorite for the US Open with odds often exceeding **50%** in July [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7535536/2026/08/28/us-open-tennis-2026-preview-player-guide/)[[^]](https://polyveritas.com/articles/2026-us-open-mens-winner-sinner-alcaraz-injury).

However, a right knee injury forced his withdrawal from the competition. Despite his overwhelming achievements and high expectations, Jannik Sinner ultimately withdrew from the 2026 US Open due to a right knee injury and did not compete [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7535536/2026/08/28/us-open-tennis-2026-preview-player-guide/)[[^]](https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/us-open-tennis-odds-sinner-withdrawal)[[^]](https://polyveritas.com/articles/2026-us-open-mens-winner-sinner-alcaraz-injury)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/players/jannik-sinner/s0ag/overview).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 US Open commenced on August 30, 2026, and is currently in progress as of September 1, 2026, with the tournament scheduled to run through September 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-schedule).** US Open Fan Week also began this weekend, spanning Sunday to Saturday [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uv3qyGn23g)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RanAKKB3oSs). The men's singles winner has not yet been determined, as the event is still ongoing [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_%E2%**80%**93_Men%27s_singles)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_(tennis))[[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/about/eventschedule.html)[[^]](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/us-open-tennis/schedule/)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/cddv720123vo)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-results)[[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-schedule).

**Key upcoming dates include the women's singles final on Saturday, September 12, 2026, and the men's singles final on Sunday, September 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/about/eventschedule.html)[[^]](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/us-open-tennis/schedule/)[[^]](https://sportsbrackets.net/2026/08/17/2026-us-open-order-of-play/).** Noteworthy contenders in the 2026 field include defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, top seed Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic [[^]](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-scouting-report).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** September 13, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 US Open commenced on August 30, 2026, and is currently in progress as of September 1, 2026, with the tournament scheduled to run through September 13, 2026 [^] .
- US Open Fan Week also began this weekend, spanning Sunday to Saturday [^] [^] .
- The men's singles winner has not yet been determined, as the event is still ongoing [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Key upcoming dates include the women's singles final on Saturday, September 12, 2026, and the men's singles final on Sunday, September 13, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

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We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 24 of 24 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the deterministic model scope show market prices only.

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