# Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Updated: August 4, 2026

Category: Trump-Machado

Tags: Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, Venezuela, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, maduro

HTML: /markets/trump-machado/rewards-20-4-5-50/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Nicolás Maduro to be Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Nicolás Maduro's high probability reflects legalistic interpretations despite his U.S.** detention.
- Delcy Rodríguez's explicitly interim role creates uncertainty for her as Venezuela's official leader.
- María Corina Machado appears sidelined, with the Trump administration supporting Rodríguez for stability.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** both price this outcome at **0.1%**/0c, implying **0%** true **probability** and no **probability** gap.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1% | No plausible path exists for this U.S. political figure to become Venezuela's head of state. |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | 0.1% | No plausible path exists for him to become Venezuela's head of state. |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | 0.1% | No plausible path exists for him to become Venezuela's head of state. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Evan Pettus | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dan Caine | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicolás Maduro | 82.4% | 83.4% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 10.0% | 9.2% |
| No Head of State | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| María Corina Machado | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Edmundo González | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Donald Trump | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leader 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 17 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 19 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 25 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 26 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 28 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 31 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 32 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 33 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 34 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 35 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 37 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 38 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 39 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leader 40 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Other | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: December 31, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price has remained static at its floor of 0.1% YES probability since trading began. The chart shows a flat, sideways trend with no significant movements. Both the starting price and the current price are 0.1%, reflecting a complete lack of positive momentum. This price level represents the market's effective support, with no trading history to establish any resistance.

The market has registered zero trading volume. This absence of activity indicates a total lack of market participation or conviction in the proposition. Despite reports that Nicolás Maduro was captured in a U.S. raid in January 2026 and is currently imprisoned, the market has not priced in any change in probability. The price action suggests market participants assign a near-zero likelihood to Edmundo González being the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, and no trader has been willing to take the other side of that view.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES for the individual officially holding the position of Venezuela's head of state on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. "Officially holds" means formal appointment, confirmation, and swearing-in, or confirmation by official government information. If no individual officially holds the position, the "No Head of State" outcome resolves YES.

Resolution relies primarily on official information from Venezuela's UN-recognized government; if unclear, UN listings or a consensus of credible reporting will be used. For any given outcome, a NO resolution is triggered if the specified individual or condition (e.g., "No Head of State") is not met based on these criteria.

## Market Discussion

The market shows a strong consensus, with 82.5% of traders predicting Nicolás Maduro will officially be Venezuela's head of state by the end of 2026. This view persists despite a hypothetical January 2026 US intervention installing Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, who is a distant second at 10%. Traders argue that Maduro will remain due to regime continuity, loyalist control of key institutions, and the US's engagement with the existing government structure, emphasizing that temporary legal measures or acting roles do not constitute an official transfer of the presidency.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dan Caine | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,093,078.78 | $0 |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 9% | 10% | 10% | $1,749,857.33 | $0 |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $2,923,205.45 | $0 |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $2,083,983.97 | $0 |
| Donald Trump | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $1,071,072.55 | $0 |
| Edmundo González | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $1,197,638.64 | $0 |
| Evan Pettus | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $5,602,950.51 | $0 |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $25,771,788 | $0 |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | $1,105,070.84 | $0 |
| Leader 1 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 10 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 11 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 12 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 13 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 14 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 15 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 16 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 17 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 18 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 19 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 20 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 21 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 22 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 23 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 24 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 25 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 26 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 27 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 28 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 29 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 3 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 30 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 31 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 32 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 33 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 34 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 35 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 36 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 37 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 38 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 39 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 4 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 40 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 5 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 6 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 7 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 8 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leader 9 | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| María Corina Machado | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | $1,429,389.71 | $0 |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $1,341,973.52 | $0 |
| Nicolás Maduro | 82.3% | 82.7% | 82.4% | $2,732,366.31 | $0 |
| Other | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $9,128,704.17 | $0 |
| Richard Grenell | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | $32,594,137.06 | $0 |
| No Head of State | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | $1,490,976.33 | $0 |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $791,814.35 | $0 |

## What political or economic catalysts could cause the Trump administration to withdraw support for Delcy Rodríguez before the end of 2026?

US Policy with Delcy Rodríguez | Cooperation as of August 2026 [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-lifts-sanctions-on-venezuelas-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ap-trump-administration-prosecutors-venezuela-leader-rodriguez/)[[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5770142-trump-praises-venezuelan-president/) |
Prediction Market for Maduro's Leadership | Approximately 80% confident Maduro will be leader by end of 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://predictiontoday.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://kalshi-uk.co.uk/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://www.marketahead.com/prediction/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://trump-prediction.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026) |
Nicolas Maduro's Capture | January 2026 [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-lifts-sanctions-on-venezuelas-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ap-trump-administration-prosecutors-venezuela-leader-rodriguez/)[[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5770142-trump-praises-venezuelan-president/) |

**The Trump administration currently supports Delcy Rodríguez's interim government, having initiated cooperation in August 2026**

The Trump administration currently supports Delcy Rodríguez's interim government, having initiated cooperation in August 2026. This policy involves lifting sanctions and halting federal criminal investigations to stabilize Venezuela's energy sector and attract investment [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-lifts-sanctions-on-venezuelas-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ap-trump-administration-prosecutors-venezuela-leader-rodriguez/)[[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5770142-trump-praises-venezuelan-president/). This collaborative approach began after the United States captured Nicolas Maduro in January 2026, which led to Delcy Rodríguez's installation as acting president [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-lifts-sanctions-on-venezuelas-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ap-trump-administration-prosecutors-venezuela-leader-rodriguez/)[[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5770142-trump-praises-venezuelan-president/). The US strategy is structured as a three-phase process aimed at securing energy interests, ensuring fair **market** access, and ultimately facilitating a political transition, utilizing both economic incentives and the potential for sanctions or military action to influence the interim authorities [[^]](https://abcnews.com/Politics/rubio-offers-threefold-plan-venezuela-white-house-maximum/story?id=128991694)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/).

Withdrawal of US support depends on specific conditions and remains an option for the Trump administration before the end of 2026. Such a withdrawal would be prompted if Rodríguez's administration fails to meet agreed milestones in the transition roadmap or if institutional progress stalls [[^]](https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/01/venezuela-economy-oil-democracy-transition)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/). Additionally, increased corruption, mismanagement of oil revenues, or the failure to release political prisoners would trigger a reconsideration of support [[^]](https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/01/venezuela-economy-oil-democracy-transition)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/).

Prediction markets anticipate Nicolas Maduro's return as leader by the close of 2026, despite his earlier capture. There is a high level of **confidence**, approximately **80%**, that Maduro will officially hold the title of Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026, despite his capture in January 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://predictiontoday.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://kalshi-uk.co.uk/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://www.marketahead.com/prediction/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://trump-prediction.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026). This outlook is likely influenced by the Venezuelan supreme court's declaration of his absence as 'temporary' and the complex legalities surrounding his formal removal. While Delcy Rodríguez is currently the interim leader, **market** probabilities suggest a lower likelihood of her retaining that specific role by the year's end [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://predictiontoday.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://kalshi-uk.co.uk/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://www.marketahead.com/prediction/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://trump-prediction.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026).

## What evidence supports the stability of Delcy Rodríguez's interim government and the U.S.-led transition plan through late 2026?

Interim President Start Date | January 2026 (following U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro) [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/venezuela-and-the-dominican-republic-say-they-will-work-to-restore-ties)[[^]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/15/venezuela-interim-government-opposition-talks-democracy-maria-corina-machado)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/)[[^]](https://halifax.citynews.ca/2026/04/06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired/) |
Formal Talks Commencement | August 1, 2026 (between interim government and opposition) [[^]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/15/venezuela-interim-government-opposition-talks-democracy-maria-corina-machado)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/)[[^]](https://colombiaone.com/2026/07/21/venezuela-us-floats-election-date/) |
Acting President Status | Delcy Rodríguez remains acting president (after initial 90-day appointment expired) [[^]](https://halifax.citynews.ca/2026/04/06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired/) |

**Delcy Rodríguez assumed interim presidency, initiating U.S.-backed transition talks**

Delcy Rodríguez assumed interim presidency, initiating U.S.-backed transition talks. She took on the role of interim/acting president of Venezuela in January 2026, succeeding Nicolás Maduro following his U.S. military capture [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/venezuela-and-the-dominican-republic-say-they-will-work-to-restore-ties)[[^]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/15/venezuela-interim-government-opposition-talks-democracy-maria-corina-machado)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/)[[^]](https://halifax.citynews.ca/2026/04/06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired/). This transition led to U.S.-backed negotiations, which commenced on August 1, 2026. These talks involved Rodríguez's interim government and the opposition, led by Dinorah Figuera, with the stated goal of fostering institutional stability and a democratic transition [[^]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/15/venezuela-interim-government-opposition-talks-democracy-maria-corina-machado)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/)[[^]](https://colombiaone.com/2026/07/21/venezuela-us-floats-election-date/).

Rodríguez's interim government stability is strengthened by specific actions. Her efforts to consolidate economic institutions, including the removal of officials allied with Cabello, bolster the government's stability [[^]](https://modeldiplomat.com/story/venezuelas-delcy-rodr%C3%ADguez-reshuffles-power). Additionally, the U.S. administration’s strategic decision to collaborate with her to maintain order provides further support [[^]](https://modeldiplomat.com/story/venezuelas-delcy-rodr%C3%ADguez-reshuffles-power). Despite her initial 90-day appointment having expired, Rodríguez continues to serve as acting president [[^]](https://halifax.citynews.ca/2026/04/06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired/). However, the absence of a defined electoral timetable remains a persistent concern [[^]](https://modeldiplomat.com/story/venezuelas-delcy-rodr%C3%ADguez-reshuffles-power). The ongoing U.S.-backed strategy is perceived as an opportunity for the U.S. to secure a favorable outcome in the region [[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/upcoming-venezuela-negotiations-are-an-opportunity-for-the-us-to-lock-in-a-victory/).

Future leadership of Venezuela faces significant **market** uncertainty. Prediction markets monitoring the future leadership of Venezuela by the end of 2026 exhibit significant and conflicting volatility [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://predictiontoday.bet/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://kalshi-uk.co.uk/event/trump-machado/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026).

## How do María Corina Machado and Delcy Rodríguez compare in terms of domestic popularity, military backing, and international recognition?

US Interim President Choice | Delcy Rodríguez (January 2026) [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-01-06/trump-followed-cia-recommendation-to-hand-power-to-delcy-rodriguez-due-to-risk-that-machado-would-not-control-the-army.html)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/machado-urges-u-s-leaders-to-push-for-a-democratic-government-in-venezuela)[[^]](https://www.gpb.org/news/2026/01/08/the-atmosphere-very-authoritarian-venezuelas-opposition-reels-the-sidelines)[[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/4418378/two-venezuelan-women-vying-for-trump-support-to-lead-country/) |
Machado's International Recognition | Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-04-01/the-delicate-balance-of-maria-corina-machado-in-trumps-washington.html) |
Start of Political Negotiations | August 1, 2026 [[^]](https://colombiaone.com/2026/07/21/venezuela-us-floats-election-date/)[[^]](https://orinocotribune.com/july-28-no-longer-mobilizes-people-maria-corina-machados-failed-attempt-at-protest/) |

**María Corina Machado enjoys significant domestic popularity and international recognition**

María Corina Machado enjoys significant domestic popularity and international recognition. She is a highly popular figure within Venezuela and maintains considerable international support, as evidenced by her winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-04-01/the-delicate-balance-of-maria-corina-machado-in-trumps-washington.html). Despite this substantial international backing, the Trump administration has sidelined Machado in favor of Delcy Rodríguez [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-04-01/the-delicate-balance-of-maria-corina-machado-in-trumps-washington.html)[[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-01-06/trump-followed-cia-recommendation-to-hand-power-to-delcy-rodriguez-due-to-risk-that-machado-would-not-control-the-army.html)[[^]](https://www.gpb.org/news/2026/01/08/the-atmosphere-very-authoritarian-venezuelas-opposition-reels-the-sidelines)[[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/4418378/two-venezuelan-women-vying-for-trump-support-to-lead-country/).

The United States backed Delcy Rodríguez for interim presidency over stability concerns. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal in January 2026, the U.S. chose to support Delcy Rodríguez as the interim president [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-01-06/trump-followed-cia-recommendation-to-hand-power-to-delcy-rodriguez-due-to-risk-that-machado-would-not-control-the-army.html)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/machado-urges-u-s-leaders-to-push-for-a-democratic-government-in-venezuela)[[^]](https://www.gpb.org/news/2026/01/08/the-atmosphere-very-authoritarian-venezuelas-opposition-reels-the-sidelines)[[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/4418378/two-venezuelan-women-vying-for-trump-support-to-lead-country/). This decision stemmed from a perception that Rodríguez was more capable of maintaining order through existing security institutions than Machado. The CIA specifically had concerns that Machado would struggle to control the Venezuelan military and police, potentially leading to instability or civil war [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-01-06/trump-followed-cia-recommendation-to-hand-power-to-delcy-rodriguez-due-to-risk-that-machado-would-not-control-the-army.html)[[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/machado-urges-u-s-leaders-to-push-for-a-democratic-government-in-venezuela)[[^]](https://www.gpb.org/news/2026/01/08/the-atmosphere-very-authoritarian-venezuelas-opposition-reels-the-sidelines)[[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/4418378/two-venezuelan-women-vying-for-trump-support-to-lead-country/). Formal political negotiations involving the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez commenced on August 1, 2026, though María Corina Machado is not a direct participant in these discussions [[^]](https://colombiaone.com/2026/07/21/venezuela-us-floats-election-date/)[[^]](https://orinocotribune.com/july-28-no-longer-mobilizes-people-maria-corina-machados-failed-attempt-at-protest/).

## Are there reliable polls tracking public support for Delcy Rodríguez versus María Corina Machado within Venezuela since January 2026?

Maria Corina Machado Support | 40-75% in opposition-friendly metrics [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership) |
Delcy Rodríguez Favorability | Under 10% in hypothetical matchups [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership) |
Poll Availability | Since January 2026 [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html) |

**Reliable public opinion polls have tracked support for key Venezuelan political figures**

Reliable public opinion polls have tracked support for key Venezuelan political figures. Since January 2026, reliable public opinion polls have been available within Venezuela, consistently tracking public support for figures such as Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership). These polls reveal distinct trends in their public favorability.

María Corina Machado consistently holds significant public support among Venezuelans. Polling data since January 2026 consistently identifies María Corina Machado as the most popular political leader in Venezuela [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership). Her support often ranges between **40%** and **75%** in metrics that are favorable to the opposition [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership).

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez maintains low personal favorability. In contrast, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez shows low personal favorability in these polls [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership). She frequently polls under **10%** when evaluated in hypothetical electoral matchups [[^]](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-05-11/venezuela-through-the-polls-venezuelans-trust-chevron-more-than-their-own-president.html)[[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-29/poll-venezuela-trump-delcy-rodriguez)[[^]](https://theworld.org/stories/2026/01/16/inside-caracas-how-venezuelans-view-machados-leadership).

## What actions from key Venezuelan military figures, like Vladimir Padrino López, could signal a challenge to the U.S.-led interim government?

Padrino López removed | March 19, 2026 (replaced by General Gustavo González López) [[^]](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/venezuela-country-focus/18-aftermath-us-intervention) |
Interim President | Delcy Rodríguez [[^]](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/venezuela-country-focus/18-aftermath-us-intervention) |
Security apparatus control | Maintained by interim government since January 2026 [[^]](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/venezuela-country-focus/18-aftermath-us-intervention)[[^]](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelans-welcome-us-intervention-hope-rapid-democratic-transition-post-maduro) |

**No specific military actions indicate a challenge to the interim government**

No specific military actions indicate a challenge to the interim government. The available research does not detail specific actions by key Venezuelan military figures, including Vladimir Padrino López, that would signal a challenge to the U.S.-led interim government. Notably, Vladimir Padrino López was removed from his position as Defense Minister by interim President Delcy Rodríguez on March 19, 2026. He was subsequently replaced by General Gustavo González López [[^]](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/venezuela-country-focus/18-aftermath-us-intervention).

Interim government maintains control over Venezuelan security apparatus. Following Nicolás Maduro's removal in January 2026, the interim government, led by Delcy Rodríguez, successfully maintained control over the security apparatus [[^]](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/venezuela-country-focus/18-aftermath-us-intervention)[[^]](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelans-welcome-us-intervention-hope-rapid-democratic-transition-post-maduro). Although the interim government faces internal pressure from factions resistant to political opening, the research does not specify these factions as military figures or detail any actions from them that would constitute a challenge to the U.S.-led interim government [[^]](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/venezuela-country-focus/18-aftermath-us-intervention)[[^]](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelans-welcome-us-intervention-hope-rapid-democratic-transition-post-maduro).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Following the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro by U.S.** forces in January 2026, his former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has served as the interim leader of Venezuela [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmlz7r0zrxo)[[^]](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/venezuela-transition-talks-start-person-230946704.html). The Trump administration opted to work with Rodríguez to manage the political transition, prioritizing stability over the immediate installation of opposition leader María Corina Machado [[^]](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/venezuela-transition-talks-start-person-230946704.html)[[^]](https://aljazeeranews-3fuh52rgrl.edgeone.app/news/2026/1/10/analysis-why-venezuelas-military-holds-the-key-to-countrys-future)[[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/americas/analysis-machado-trump-venezuela-test-intl-latam).

**Formal political transition negotiations between Rodríguez's interim government and the U.S.-backed opposition are scheduled to commence in Caracas in August 2026 [[^]](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/venezuela-transition-talks-start-person-230946704.html)[[^]](https://aljazeeranews-3fuh52rgrl.edgeone.app/news/2026/1/10/analysis-why-venezuelas-military-holds-the-key-to-countrys-future).** Despite Maduro's removal, prediction markets as of early August 2026 show an approximately 80-**81%** "YES" **probability** for the contract "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026/will-nicols-maduro-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://orrery.me/markets/will-nicols-maduro-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026). This **probability** reflects the specific legalistic definitions of "official head of state" used in these markets, which do not necessarily disqualify a detained leader absent a formal end to their term [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026/will-nicols-maduro-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026)[[^]](https://orrery.me/markets/will-nicols-maduro-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** December 31, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Following the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro by U.S.
- Forces in January 2026, his former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has served as the interim leader of Venezuela [^] [^] .
- The Trump administration opted to work with Rodríguez to manage the political transition, prioritizing stability over the immediate installation of opposition leader María Corina Machado [^] [^] [^] .
- Formal political transition negotiations between Rodríguez's interim government and the U.S.-backed opposition are scheduled to commence in Caracas in August 2026 [^] [^] .

## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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