# Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Updated: August 4, 2026

Category: United States

Tags: Elections, Politics, US Election, World Elections, Earn 4%, Primaries

HTML: /markets/united-states/elections/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Gavin Newsom to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Gavin Newsom consistently leads in early polling and prediction markets as a top contender.** - Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are frequently cited as prominent potential nominees.
- Kamala Harris may benefit from the proposed South Carolina early primary calendar.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **0.5%** **probability** for this outcome vs 0c **market** price, implying a 200x payout multiple.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.5% | 0.5% | Oprah Winfrey is a highly influential and popular public figure with broad appeal. |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | 0.8% | Bernie Sanders has a dedicated progressive base and significant past presidential primary experience. |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.9% | 1.1% | Chelsea Clinton is a member of a prominent political family with a recognizable name. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Yang | 0.2% | — |
| Hunter Biden | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| LeBron James | 0.2% | — |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.2% | — |
| George Clooney | 0.4% | — |
| Tim Walz | 0.2% | — |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.2% | — |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.2% | — |
| Phil Murphy | 0.2% | — |
| MrBeast | 0.2% | — |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.4% | — |
| Liz Cheney | 0.4% | — |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.4% | — |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.2% | — |
| Barack Obama | 0.2% | — |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Roy Cooper | 0.6% | — |
| Jared Polis | 0.2% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 18.7% | 27.5% |
| Michelle Obama | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Cory Booker | 0.5% | — |
| Jon Stewart | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| John Fetterman | 0.3% | — |
| Mark Cuban | 0.5% | — |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.4% | — |
| Wes Moore | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Mark Kelly | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| Kamala Harris | 8.5% | 12.4% |
| Andy Beshear | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.7% | 16.6% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | 6.4% |
| Ro Khanna | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| James Talarico | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.8% | 5.4% |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.3% | — |
| Graham Platner | 0.2% | — |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.2% | — |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — |
| Alex Padilla | 0.2% | — |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.2% | — |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — |
| Person V | 0.0% | — |
| Person W | 0.0% | — |
| Person X | 0.0% | — |
| Person Y | 0.0% | — |
| Person Z | 0.0% | — |
| Person AA | 0.0% | — |
| Person AB | 0.0% | — |
| Person AC | 0.0% | — |
| Person AD | 0.0% | — |
| Person AE | 0.0% | — |
| Person AF | 0.0% | — |
| Person AG | 0.0% | — |
| Person AH | 0.0% | — |
| Person AI | 0.0% | — |
| Person AJ | 0.0% | — |
| Person AK | 0.0% | — |
| Person AL | 0.0% | — |
| Person AM | 0.0% | — |
| Person AN | 0.0% | — |
| Person AO | 0.0% | — |
| Person AP | 0.0% | — |
| Person AQ | 0.0% | — |
| Person AR | 0.0% | — |
| Person AS | 0.0% | — |
| Person AT | 0.0% | — |
| Person AU | 0.0% | — |
| Person AV | 0.0% | — |
| Person AW | 0.0% | — |
| Person AX | 0.0% | — |
| Person AY | 0.0% | — |
| Person AZ | 0.0% | — |
| Person BA | 0.0% | — |
| Person BB | 0.0% | — |
| Person BC | 0.0% | — |
| Person BD | 0.0% | — |
| Person BE | 0.0% | — |
| Person BF | 0.0% | — |
| Person BG | 0.0% | — |
| Person BH | 0.0% | — |
| Person BI | 0.0% | — |
| Person BJ | 0.0% | — |
| Person BK | 0.0% | — |
| Person BL | 0.0% | — |
| Person BM | 0.0% | — |
| Person BN | 0.0% | — |
| Person BO | 0.0% | — |
| Person BP | 0.0% | — |
| Person BQ | 0.0% | — |
| Person BR | 0.0% | — |
| Person BS | 0.0% | — |
| Person BT | 0.0% | — |
| Person BU | 0.0% | — |
| Person BV | 0.0% | — |
| Person BW | 0.0% | — |
| Person BX | 0.0% | — |
| Person BY | 0.0% | — |
| Person BZ | 0.0% | — |
| Person CA | 0.0% | — |
| Person CB | 0.0% | — |
| Person CC | 0.0% | — |
| Person CD | 0.0% | — |
| Person CE | 0.0% | — |
| Person CF | 0.0% | — |
| Person CG | 0.0% | — |
| Person CH | 0.0% | — |
| Person CI | 0.0% | — |
| Person CJ | 0.0% | — |
| Person CK | 0.0% | — |
| Person CL | 0.0% | — |
| Person CM | 0.0% | — |
| Person CN | 0.0% | — |
| Person CO | 0.0% | — |
| Person CP | 0.0% | — |
| Person CQ | 0.0% | — |
| Person CR | 0.0% | — |
| Person CS | 0.0% | — |
| Other | 0.0% | — |

- Expiration: November 7, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Technical analysis of this contract shows a complete absence of market activity. The price has remained static at 0.4% since the market's inception, with no discernible trend or volatility. There have been no price movements to analyze. Consequently, key events such as the August 3, 2026, statement from Pete Buttigieg regarding a potential 2028 run have had no impact on the contract's valuation.

Total traded volume is zero contracts. This indicates the market is entirely illiquid, with no participation from traders. Without any transactions, the current price is a nominal placeholder and does not reflect any consensus view or market conviction. No support or resistance levels have been established. The chart data does not provide any insight into market sentiment regarding Gavin Newsom's nomination prospects, as no sentiment has been expressed through trading.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific listed individual if that person becomes the Democratic Presidential Nominee for the 2028 election, and 'No' if they do not. The relevant date for this event is November 7, 2028. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions or specific sources for resolution.

## Market Discussion

Traders in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market largely consider Gavin Newsom (18.6%), Jon Ossoff (14.8%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14.3%) to be the leading contenders. However, no single candidate holds a strong majority, as even the top choice, Newsom, is seen as having less than a 19% chance of securing the nomination. This indicates a highly fractured field, with current Vice President Kamala Harris having significantly lower odds at 8.5% compared to the top three.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $172,744.88 | $0 |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $103,199.76 | $0 |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $176,712.16 | $0 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.3% | $14,138,831.33 | $0 |
| Andrew Yang | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $48,405,827.56 | $0 |
| Andy Beshear | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | $12,836,997.4 | $0 |
| Other | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Barack Obama | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $33,839,870.19 | $0 |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $52,581,243.85 | $0 |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $42,659,307.36 | $0 |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $50,134,449.57 | $0 |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $17,041,215.1 | $0 |
| Cory Booker | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $25,453,793.88 | $0 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | $12,338,212.59 | $0 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $369,487.05 | $0 |
| Gavin Newsom | 18.6% | 18.7% | 18.7% | $26,630,008.83 | $0 |
| George Clooney | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $42,892,431.22 | $0 |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $35,559,899.12 | $0 |
| Graham Platner | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $7,948,967.15 | $0 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | $11,847,126.36 | $0 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $182,865.09 | $0 |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $43,534,575.9 | $0 |
| James Talarico | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | $10,215,182.46 | $0 |
| Jared Polis | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $27,164,035.08 | $0 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $36,252,846.38 | $0 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | $15,283,638.52 | $0 |
| John Fetterman | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $24,347,668.87 | $0 |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.7% | 14.8% | 14.7% | $12,466,710.79 | $0 |
| Jon Stewart | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | $24,564,628.6 | $0 |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | $9,409,260.46 | $0 |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $189,645.74 | $0 |
| Kamala Harris | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | $12,842,805.04 | $0 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $42,282,055.04 | $0 |
| LeBron James | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $43,810,369.32 | $0 |
| Liz Cheney | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $38,338,316.19 | $0 |
| Mark Cuban | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $22,750,398.36 | $0 |
| Mark Kelly | 2.9% | 3% | 2.9% | $17,111,552.65 | $0 |
| Michelle Obama | 0.9% | 1% | 1% | $26,025,836.09 | $0 |
| MrBeast | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $40,304,965.96 | $0 |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | $54,184,656.37 | $0 |
| Hunter Biden | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $43,993,372.53 | $0 |
| Person AA | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AB | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AC | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AD | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AE | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AF | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AG | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AH | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AI | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AJ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AK | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AL | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AM | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AN | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AO | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AP | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AQ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AR | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AS | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AT | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AU | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AV | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AW | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AX | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AY | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person AZ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BA | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BB | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BC | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BD | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BE | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BF | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BG | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BH | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BI | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BJ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BK | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BL | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BM | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BN | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BO | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BP | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BQ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BR | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BS | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BT | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BU | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BV | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BW | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BX | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BY | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person BZ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CA | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CB | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CC | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CD | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CE | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CF | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CG | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CH | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CI | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CJ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CK | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CL | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CM | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CN | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CO | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CP | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CQ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CR | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person CS | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person V | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person W | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person X | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person Y | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Person Z | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | $11,736,597.9 | $0 |
| Phil Murphy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $42,077,364.8 | $0 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | $14,379,777.36 | $0 |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $31,889,301.54 | $0 |
| Ro Khanna | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | $11,090,671.79 | $0 |
| Roy Cooper | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $31,315,081.4 | $0 |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $8,288,682.72 | $0 |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | $21,482,157.91 | $0 |
| Tim Walz | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $42,718,114.35 | $0 |
| Wes Moore | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | $17,435,123.76 | $0 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | $38,551,108.56 | $0 |

## How will the DNC's proposed 2028 primary calendar, starting with South Carolina, influence the campaign viability and strategy of potential candidates like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris?

First 2028 Democratic primary state | South Carolina (January 22, 2028) [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/04/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar-2/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/31/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar/) |
DNC calendar approval date | July 24, 2026 [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-presidential-nominating-calendar-2028-b3d153a33e39bd9e5ebcce3c58e9e84c)[[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/24/democrats-2028-first-primary-south-carolina-nevada)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/24/democrats-2028-presidential-primary-calendar/91009808007/) |
Gavin Newsom's prediction market polling | Approximately 19-24% [[^]](https://puck.news/how-will-the-reshuffled-early-state-voting-impact-dnc-candidates/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination) |

**The DNC established South Carolina as the initial 2028 primary state**

The DNC established South Carolina as the initial 2028 primary state. On July 24, 2026, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee approved a proposed 2028 primary calendar that designates South Carolina to host the first presidential primary on January 22, 2028 [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-presidential-nominating-calendar-2028-b3d153a33e39bd9e5ebcce3c58e9e84c)[[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/24/democrats-2028-first-primary-south-carolina-nevada)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/24/democrats-2028-presidential-primary-calendar/91009808007/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/04/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar-2/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/31/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar/). This decision underscores the DNC's emphasis on South Carolina's diverse electorate, particularly its substantial Black voter population. This demographic is viewed as a crucial indicator for assembling broad-based coalitions essential for success in the general election [[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/5-southern-democratic-chairs-say-south-carolina-should-lead-off-2028-presidential-primary-calendar/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/What_to_look_for_in_the_South_Carolina_Democratic_Primary).

South Carolina's lead position could significantly influence candidate viability and strategy. The proposed primary calendar, commencing with South Carolina, is largely seen as a potential advantage for Kamala Harris, given her strong support within the state's considerable Black electorate [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/24/democrats-2028-first-primary-south-carolina-nevada)[[^]](https://puck.news/how-will-the-reshuffled-early-state-voting-impact-dnc-candidates/)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/chris.cillizza/posts/my-first-take-on-south-carolina-going-first-in-the-2028-democratic-presidential-/1595118475316981/). Concurrently, Gavin Newsom emerges as a leading contender in current prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, consistently polling between approximately **19%** and **24%** across various platforms, positioning him as competitive within this evolving primary structure [[^]](https://puck.news/how-will-the-reshuffled-early-state-voting-impact-dnc-candidates/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination).

## What concrete evidence from fundraising reports and early polling (2025-2026) supports Gavin Newsom's status as a leading contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination?

Prediction Market Implied Probability | 18% to 24% for 2028 Democratic nomination (August 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination)[[^]](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/markets/politics/election-odds/democratic-nominee/)[[^]](https://orrery.me/markets/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568) |
New Donor Contributors | Over 100,000 in 2025 [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/christinaloreynews/posts/president-newsom%EF%B8%8F-california-gov-gavin-newsom-gained-more-than-100000-contributo/1282724197008156/)[[^]](https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/11/proposition-50-newsom-presidential-campaign/) |
FEC Registration Status | No formal registration as 2028 presidential candidate (mid-2026) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2028)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2028)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_registered_2028_presidential_candidates) |

**Gavin Newsom is frequently identified as a leading 2028 Democratic contender**

Gavin Newsom is frequently identified as a leading 2028 Democratic contender. As of mid-2026, he is consistently listed in early polling and prediction markets alongside other prominent figures such as Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [[^]](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-national-poll/)[[^]](https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1898&context=survey_center_polls)[[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2026/06/11/harris-polling-2028-democrats-shapiro-beshear/90470285007/). Prediction markets, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, place his implied probabilities of securing the nomination between **18%** and **24%** as of August 2026, positioning him among the frontrunners in betting odds [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination)[[^]](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/markets/politics/election-odds/democratic-nominee/)[[^]](https://orrery.me/markets/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co2Omyo7Ryo). His national profile-raising activities, such as campaigning for California's Proposition 50 in 2025, reportedly helped him acquire over 100,000 new contributors that year, providing a valuable list of potential donors [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/christinaloreynews/posts/president-newsom%EF%B8%8F-california-gov-gavin-newsom-gained-more-than-100000-contributo/1282724197008156/)[[^]](https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/11/proposition-50-newsom-presidential-campaign/).

Formal fundraising and declared candidacy evidence is currently absent. Despite his strong showing in early polls and prediction markets, there is no concrete evidence from 2025-2026 fundraising or polling that formally supports Newsom's status as a leading presidential contender [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/candidate-favorability/gavin-newsom-9233/national/lv-rv-adults)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/31/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/04/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar-2/). His public focus remains on his gubernatorial duties in California. Federal Election Commission (FEC) records confirm no formal registration or financial filings from Gavin Newsom as a 2028 presidential candidate as of mid-2026 [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/candidate-favorability/gavin-newsom-9233/national/lv-rv-adults)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/31/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/04/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar-2/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2028)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2028)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_registered_2028_presidential_candidates). Furthermore, the FEC reported no contributions by political action committees (PACs) to any declared 2028 presidential candidates as of December 31, 2025 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-12-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2025-2026-election-cycle/)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-six-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2025-2026-election-cycle/).

## How do the executive records of Governors Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) compare as models for a potential 2028 presidential campaign?

Gretchen Whitmer 2028 Presidential Campaign Status | Ruled out as of August 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/time/posts/michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer-has-ruled-out-a-run-for-president-in-2028-heres-wh/1359467232705939/?locale=ar_AR) |
Gretchen Whitmer Gubernatorial Term End | 2026 [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/27/three-democrats-compete-for-michigans-open-governors-seat-as-whitmers-term-limited-exit-looms/) |
Andy Beshear National Name Recognition | Approximately 7 in 10 Americans don't know enough about him [[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2024/what-polling-shows-about-the-top-vp-contenders-for-kamala-harris/) |

**Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a 2028 presidential campaign, while Andy Beshear remains a potential contender**

Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a 2028 presidential campaign, while Andy Beshear remains a potential contender. As potential models for a 2028 presidential campaign, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer formally ruled out a run as of August 4, 2026 [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/time/posts/michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer-has-ruled-out-a-run-for-president-in-2028-heres-wh/1359467232705939/?locale=ar_AR)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/UpNorthLive/videos/michigan-gov-whitmer-clarifies-comment-that-shes-not-running-for-president-in-20/1253608963294517/). In contrast, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is actively considered a potential Democratic contender [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/time/posts/michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer-has-ruled-out-a-run-for-president-in-2028-heres-wh/1359467232705939/?locale=ar_AR)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/UpNorthLive/videos/michigan-gov-whitmer-clarifies-comment-that-shes-not-running-for-president-in-20/1253608963294517/)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/a-democrat-winning-in-trump-country-why-isnt-andy-beshear-a-2028-favorite-11847806)[[^]](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-02-01/andy-beshear-gavin-newsom-trump-2028-democrats-presidential-race)[[^]](https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/10/03/andy-beshear-presidential-contender/)[[^]](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/prediction-markets/2026/03/kentucky-gov-beshear-criticizes-vance-latest-odds-democratic-nominee-2028/). Despite Beshear's consideration, prediction markets as of mid-2026 show very low probabilities for both candidates to secure the 2028 Democratic nomination [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/politics/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee-prediction-**market**). However, traders do view Beshear as a potential 'dark horse' candidate due to his documented electoral success in a red state [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/politics/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee-prediction-**market**).

Governor Whitmer's record highlights leadership in a swing state amidst legislative polarization. Gretchen Whitmer's executive record as Michigan Governor centered on leading a swing state, effectively managing infrastructure initiatives, and navigating a frequently polarized legislature [[^]](https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2024/04/10/whitmer-2024-election-trump-biden-democratic-candidate/73243170007/). Her tenure was notably defined by her approach to a divided or Republican-controlled legislature, where she utilized veto power to manage state budgets and policy [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2019/02/25/michigan-legislators-reject-executive-order-for-first-time-in-42-years-governor-issues-revised-order/). She also led high-profile responses to crises, such as COVID-19, which garnered both public support and faced recall attempts [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Gretchen_Whitmer_recall,_Governor_of_Michigan_(2020-2021)). Governor Whitmer is term-limited and is scheduled to leave office in 2026 [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/27/three-democrats-compete-for-michigans-open-governors-seat-as-whitmers-term-limited-exit-looms/).

Governor Beshear demonstrates a political **model** centered on bipartisanship in a red state. Andy Beshear's political **model** focuses on maintaining popularity in Kentucky, a state where the opposing party holds a massive voter registration advantage, by emphasizing an image as a healer and prioritizing economic development [[^]](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-02-01/andy-beshear-gavin-newsom-trump-2028-democrats-presidential-race)[[^]](https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/10/03/andy-beshear-presidential-contender/)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/a-democrat-winning-in-trump-country-why-isnt-andy-beshear-a-2028-favorite-11847806). As a two-term governor of a deep-red state, he has successfully leveraged bipartisan wins, including Medicaid expansion and infrastructure projects, while also vetoing conservative social legislation [[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/a-democrat-winning-in-trump-country-why-isnt-andy-beshear-a-2028-favorite-11847806)[[^]](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-02-01/andy-beshear-gavin-newsom-trump-2028-democrats-presidential-race)[[^]](https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/10/03/andy-beshear-presidential-contender/)[[^]](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/prediction-markets/2026/03/kentucky-gov-beshear-criticizes-vance-latest-odds-democratic-nominee-2028/). Despite these achievements, polling from 2024 indicated that Beshear faces significant challenges with national name recognition, with approximately 7 in 10 Americans reporting they did not know enough about him to form an opinion [[^]](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2024/what-polling-shows-about-the-top-vp-contenders-for-kamala-harris/).

## What trends can be identified from Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings by undeclared potential 2028 candidates like Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg through their PACs and other political committees?

Gavin Newsom PAC funds | Over $4 million (mid-2026) [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/01/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-the-waters-during-midterm-shadow-campaign/) |
Pete Buttigieg PAC funds | Over $5 million (mid-2026) [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/01/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-the-waters-during-midterm-shadow-campaign/)[[^]](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2028-election-democrats-running-for-president/) |
Kamala Harris DNC transfer | $600,000 (April 24, 2026) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00744946/1996251/sb/ALL)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00694455/)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00694455/sb)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/899/202408069666088899/202408069666088899.pdf) |

**Undeclared 2028 candidates use committees, delaying formal FEC campaign filings**

Undeclared 2028 candidates use committees, delaying formal FEC campaign filings. Potential Democratic presidential contenders, including Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Pete Buttigieg, are actively building support and funding operations through existing political action committees (PACs) and established political committee infrastructure [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/01/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-the-waters-during-midterm-shadow-campaign/)[[^]](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2028-election-democrats-running-for-president/)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00744946/1996251/sb/ALL)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00694455/)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00694455/sb)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/899/202408069666088899/202408069666088899.pdf). This strategic activity is characterized as a "midterm shadow campaign" primarily focused on the 2026 midterms, which has consequently led to a structural delay in the formal submission of FEC reports specifically designated for 2028 presidential campaigns [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/01/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-the-waters-during-midterm-shadow-campaign/)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/will-kamala-harris-announce-a-2028-run-for-president-by-june-30)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/will-gavin-newsom-announce-presidential-run-by)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/will-kamala-harris-announce-a-2028-run-for-president-by-june-30).

Candidates maintain strong financial positions and engage in early political actions. As of mid-2026, Gavin Newsom's PAC holds over **$4** million, while Pete Buttigieg's PAC possesses over **$5** million, providing substantial resources for their exploratory activities [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/01/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-the-waters-during-midterm-shadow-campaign/)[[^]](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2028-election-democrats-running-for-president/). Newsom had previously established a hybrid PAC in 2023 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00836353/1695361)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Gavin_Newsom). Buttigieg's former presidential campaign committee was converted into a PAC, and he remains engaged in national politics, including endorsing candidates in critical 2026 battleground races [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/P00010298/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Angie_Craig). Kamala Harris also maintains an active political committee infrastructure, with the Harris Victory Fund consistently transferring significant funds to the Democratic National Committee, such as a recorded **$600,000** transfer on April 24, 2026 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00744946/1996251/sb/ALL)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00694455/)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00694455/sb)[[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/899/202408069666088899/202408069666088899.pdf). This pre-declaration phase also involves travel to early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and private outreach to various party factions, exemplified by Harris connecting with progressive leaders [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/01/democratic-presidential-contenders-test-the-waters-during-midterm-shadow-campaign/)[[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5829207-harris-newsom-presidential-intentions/)[[^]](https://frnt.com/story/36841/kamala-harris-initiates-private-outreach-to-progressive-leaders-ahead-of-potential-2028-bid).

## What is the viability of Pete Buttigieg's potential 2028 candidacy, based on his national profile and performance in the 2020 primary?

Hypothetical 2028 Primary Support | 18-19% among likely voters [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/23/pete-buttigieg-jd-vance-lead-latest-2028-presidential-primary-poll/91026293007/)[[^]](https://time.com/article/2026/05/28/2028-election-president-contenders-who-running-polls/)[[^]](https://www.advocate.com/politics/national/pete-buttigieg-leads-2028-hopefuls)[[^]](https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1898&context=survey_center_polls) |
2028 Prediction Market Probability | Below 10% (August 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination) |
2020 Iowa Caucus Delegates | 14 projected [[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?elect=1&f=&off=0&year=2020) |

**Pete Buttigieg's potential 2028 presidential candidacy presents conflicting viability signals**

Pete Buttigieg's potential 2028 presidential candidacy presents conflicting viability signals. He frequently leads hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary polls, showing 18-**19%** support among likely voters in recent surveys [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/23/pete-buttigieg-jd-vance-lead-latest-2028-presidential-primary-poll/91026293007/)[[^]](https://time.com/article/2026/05/28/2028-election-president-contenders-who-running-polls/)[[^]](https://www.advocate.com/politics/national/pete-buttigieg-leads-2028-hopefuls)[[^]](https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1898&context=survey_center_polls). However, prediction markets offer a different perspective, assigning him a relatively low **probability** of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination, often less than **10%**, which places him behind other potential candidates like Gavin Newsom as of August 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination). Despite no official campaign announcements, Buttigieg is consistently recognized in media discussions as a potential 2028 candidate [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2028)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/28/almost-200-candidates-have-filed-to-run-in-the-2028-presidential-election/)[[^]](https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ImthinkingaboutitKamalaHarrissaysshesconsideringa2028WhiteHousebid/0ef4b971203e447b9029308cd365e8a1/video).

Buttigieg demonstrated significant early success during the 2020 Democratic primary campaign. He secured the most delegates in the Iowa caucuses, projected to earn 14 delegates, and tied for the most in New Hampshire [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg_2020_presidential_campaign)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html)[[^]](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/02/800856100/sen-amy-klobuchar-ends-presidential-campaign)[[^]](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?elect=1&f=&off=0&year=2020)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2020/02/10/iowa-dems-project-14-national-delegates-for-buttigieg-12-for-sanders/). Nationally, his campaign ultimately accumulated 26 delegates and 863,268 primary votes [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2020/02/10/iowa-dems-project-14-national-delegates-for-buttigieg-12-for-sanders/). His campaign, which launched in April 2019 and included ten primary debates, concluded on March 1, 2020 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Pete_Buttigieg_presidential_campaign,_2020). He suspended his campaign prior to Super Tuesday, primarily due to an inability to build a broad and diverse coalition, particularly failing to gain traction with Black voters in South Carolina [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg_2020_presidential_campaign)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html)[[^]](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/02/800856100/sen-amy-klobuchar-ends-presidential-campaign).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Democratic National Committee (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee set a new early-state primary calendar for 2028 in July 2026.** This proposed schedule places South Carolina first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-presidential-nominating-calendar-2028-b3d153a33e39bd9e5ebcce3c58e9e84c)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/dnc-committee-sets-south-carolina-vote-first-democrats-2028-presidenti-rcna588863)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2028_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/04/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar-2/). The full DNC is scheduled to vote on this proposal in mid-August 2026 [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-presidential-nominating-calendar-2028-b3d153a33e39bd9e5ebcce3c58e9e84c)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/04/democratic-national-committee-announces-proposed-early-states-for-2028-democratic-presidential-calendar-2/). This upcoming vote represents a near-term catalyst for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election cycle, which is scheduled for November 7, 2028 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2028_United_States_presidential_election).

**As of August 2026, California Governor Gavin Newsom leads Democratic presidential nomination prediction markets, with odds generally ranging between 19% and 24% [[^]](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/markets/politics/election-odds/democratic-nominee/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination).** Senator Jon Ossoff and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are also frequently cited contenders [[^]](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/markets/politics/election-odds/democratic-nominee/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28)[[^]](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination). While nearly 200 candidates have filed with the FEC for the 2028 presidential cycle as of August 2025, no noteworthy presidential campaign announcements for the 2028 Democratic nomination have occurred at this time [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/08/28/almost-200-candidates-have-filed-to-run-in-the-2028-presidential-election/). Prediction markets currently prioritize the 2026 midterm election cycle, which has reached approximately **$200** million in settled contracts, over the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/03/prediction-markets-approach-200-million-in-settled-contracts/). The commencement of primary contests in January 2028 will serve as a subsequent catalyst [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2028_United_States_presidential_election).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Closes:** November 07, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Democratic National Committee (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee set a new early-state primary calendar for 2028 in July 2026.
- This proposed schedule places South Carolina first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- The full DNC is scheduled to vote on this proposal in mid-August 2026 [^] [^] .
- This upcoming vote represents a near-term catalyst for the 2028 U.S.

## Related Research Reports

- [Republican Presidential Nominee 2028](/markets/united-states/politics/republican-presidential-nominee-2028/)

## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 22 of 24 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the deterministic model scope show market prices only.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://www.octagonai.co/markets/united-states/elections/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
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