---
title: 2026 Midterm Election Tracker
url: https://www.octagonai.co/midterms-tracker/
source: Octagon
generated_at: 2026-08-13T01:43:15.872Z
---

# 2026 Midterm Election Tracker

Live prediction-market odds (Kalshi + Polymarket) for every tracked 2026 U.S. Senate and Governor race and the balance of power in Congress, each paired with an Octagon research report. Election day is November 3, 2026.

- Races tracked: 158
- Senate races: 34 · Governor races: 36
- Sources: 147 Kalshi, 11 Polymarket
- Last updated: 2026-08-12T21:05:29.442003+00:00

## Balance of Power

| Race | Favored | Model | Market | Volume | Report |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? | Democratic Party (Democratic) | 85% | 83% | $20.3M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-house/ |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | R Senate, D House (Toss-up / uncalled) | 50% | 41% | $9.5M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/united-states/balance-of-power-2026-midterms/ |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? | D-House, R-Senate (Toss-up / uncalled) | 49% | 39% | $9.1M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/2026-midterms-congress-balance-of-power/ |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party (Democratic) | 88% | 87% | $9.1M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/parent-for-derivative/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026/ |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 (Toss-up / uncalled) | 18% | 24% | $2.8M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/midterms/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections/ |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? | 203-207 (Toss-up / uncalled) | 19% | 15% | $2.3M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/house/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-hold-after-the-midterms/ |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | Above 52 (Toss-up / uncalled) | 16% | 22% | $1.9M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-hold-after-the-midterms/ |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | 226-229 (Toss-up / uncalled) | 17% | 13% | $967K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/house/how-many-house-seats-will-democrats-hold-after-the-midterms/ |

## Senate Races

| Race | Favored | Model | Market | Volume | Report |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Texas Senate winner? | James Talarico (Democratic) | 52% | 49% | $7.3M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/texas-senate-winner/ |
| Maine Senate winner? | Troy Jackson (Democratic) | 56% | 65% | $3.7M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/maine-senate-winner/ |
| North Carolina Senate winner? | Roy Cooper (Democratic) | 89% | 90% | $1.3M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/north-carolina-senate-winner/ |
| Iowa Senate winner? | Ashley Hinson (Republican) | 58% | 60% | $1.0M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/iowa-senate-winner/ |
| Georgia Senate winner? | Jon Ossoff (Democratic) | 93% | 92% | $1.0M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/georgia-senate-winner/ |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) | Abdul El-Sayed (Democratic) | 55% | 58% | $761K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/michigan-senate-winner-person/ |
| Ohio Senate winner? | Sherrod Brown (Democratic) | 56% | 53% | $653K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/ohio-senate-winner/ |
| South Carolina Senate winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 87% | 89% | $615K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/south-carolina-senate-winner/ |
| Kansas Senate winner? | Roger Marshall (Republican) | 78% | 79% | $271K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/kansas-senate-winner/ |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Party) | Democratic party (Democratic) | 66% | 58% | $256K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/alaska-senate-winner-party/ |
| Nebraska Senate winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 66% | 68% | $253K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/nebraska-senate-winner/ |
| New Hampshire Senate winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 88% | 89% | $163K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/new-hampshire-senate-winner/ |
| Montana Senate winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 81% | 80% | $155K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/montana-senate-winner/ |
| Minnesota Senate winner? | Peggy Flanagan (Democratic) | 91% | 91% | $126K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/minnesota-senate-winner/ |
| Kentucky Senate winner? | Andy Barr (Republican) | 93% | 95% | $98K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/kentucky-senate-winner/ |
| Idaho Senate winner? | Jim Risch (Republican) | 93% | 94% | $81K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/idaho-senate-winner/ |
| Florida Senate winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 86% | 83% | $72K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/florida-senate-winner/ |
| New Jersey Senate winner? | Cory Booker (Democratic) | 98% | 97% | $35K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/new-jersey-senate-winner/ |
| Mississippi Senate winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 94% | 90% | $35K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/mississippi-senate-winner/ |
| Tennessee Senate winner? | Bill Hagerty (Republican) | 97% | 98% | $33K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/tennessee-senate-winner/ |
| South Dakota Senate winner? | Mike Rounds (Republican) | 93% | 94% | $30K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/south-dakota-senate-winner/ |
| New Mexico Senate winner? | Ben Ray Luján (Democratic) | 98% | 97% | $24K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/new-mexico-senate-winner/ |
| Arkansas Senate winner? | Tom Cotton (Republican) | 94% | 96% | $23K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/arkansas-senate-winner/ |
| Virginia Senate winner? | Mark Warner (Democratic) | 97% | 96% | $21K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/virginia-senate-winner/ |
| West Virginia Senate winner? | Shelley Moore Capito (Republican) | 97% | 98% | $19K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/west-virginia-senate-winner/ |
| Wyoming Senate winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 98% | 98% | $15K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/wyoming-senate-winner/ |
| Colorado Senate winner? | John Hickenlooper (Democratic) | 97% | 97% | $14K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/colorado-senate-winner/ |
| Rhode Island Senate winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 98% | 98% | $13K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/rhode-island-senate-winner/ |
| Oklahoma Senate winner? | Kevin Hern (Republican) | 98% | 97% | $11K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/oklahoma-senate-winner/ |
| Illinois Senate winner? | Juliana Stratton (Democratic) | 98% | 98% | $9K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/illinois-senate-winner/ |
| Alabama Senate winner? | Barry Moore (Republican) | 98% | 98% | $9K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/alabama-senate-winner/ |
| Delaware Senate winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 98% | 98% | $9K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/delaware-senate-winner/ |
| Massachusetts Senate winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 99% | 99% | $4K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/massachusetts-senate-winner/ |
| Oregon Senate winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 94% | 95% | $2K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/senate/oregon-senate-winner/ |

## Governor Races

| Race | Favored | Model | Market | Volume | Report |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| California Governor winner? (Person) | Xavier Becerra (Democratic) | 96% | 96% | $49.7M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/california-governor-winner-person/ |
| Alaska Governor Election Winner | Treg Taylor (Republican) | 29% | 24% | $1.1M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/alaska-midterm/alaska-governor-election-winner/ |
| Ohio Governor winner? | Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) | 51% | 51% | $939K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/ohio-governor-winner/ |
| Wisconsin Governor winner? | David Crowley (Democratic) | 76% | 77% | $688K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/wisconsin-governor-winner/ |
| Nevada Governor winner? | Joe Lombardo (Republican) | 60% | 62% | $644K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/nevada-governor-winner/ |
| Arizona Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 80% | 77% | $320K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/arizona-governor-winner/ |
| Michigan Governor winner? | Jocelyn Benson (Democratic) | 86% | 86% | $300K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/michigan-governor-winner/ |
| New York Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 92% | 89% | $276K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/new-york-governor-winner/ |
| Minnesota Governor winner? | Amy Klobuchar (Democratic) | 93% | 93% | $257K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/minnesota-governor-winner/ |
| Oregon Governor winner? | Tina Kotek (Democratic) | 86% | 89% | $132K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/oregon-governor-winner/ |
| Iowa Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 72% | 67% | $129K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/iowa-governor-winner/ |
| Massachusetts Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 93% | 95% | $128K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/massachusetts-governor-winner/ |
| Texas Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 91% | 86% | $94K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/texas-governor-winner/ |
| Florida Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 80% | 77% | $88K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/florida-governor-winner/ |
| Colorado Governor winner? | Phil Weiser (Democratic) | 95% | 95% | $82K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/colorado-governor-winner/ |
| Oklahoma Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 95% | 94% | $67K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/oklahoma-governor-winner/ |
| Georgia Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 56% | 53% | $64K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/georgia-governor-winner/ |
| Alabama Governor winner? | Tommy Tuberville (Republican) | 92% | 95% | $56K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/alabama-governor-winner/ |
| Vermont Governor winner? | Phil Scott (Republican) | 88% | 93% | $55K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/vermont-governor-winner/ |
| Illinois Governor winner? | JB Pritzker (Democratic) | 95% | 95% | $49K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/illinois-governor-winner/ |
| Maine Governor winner? | Hannah Pingree (Democratic) | 95% | 95% | $47K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/maine-governor-winner/ |
| Connecticut Governor winner? | Ned Lamont (Democratic) | 97% | 99% | $35K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/connecticut-governor-winner/ |
| Kansas Governor winner? | Ty Masterson (Republican) | 68% | 61% | $33K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/kansas-governor-winner/ |
| Pennsylvania Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 96% | 95% | $29K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/pennsylvania-governor-winner/ |
| South Carolina Governor winner? | Alan Wilson (Republican) | 91% | 93% | $25K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/south-carolina-governor-winner/ |
| Maryland Governor winner? | Wes Moore (Democratic) | 93% | 97% | $19K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/maryland-governor-winner/ |
| Tennessee Governor winner? | Marsha Blackburn (Republican) | 93% | 97% | $19K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/tennessee-governor-winner/ |
| Rhode Island Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 94% | 95% | $15K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/rhode-island-governor-winner/ |
| Nebraska Governor winner? | Republican (Republican) | 91% | 88% | $13K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/nebraska-governor-winner/ |
| New Mexico Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 95% | 92% | $11K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/new-mexico-governor-winner/ |
| New Hampshire Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 79% | 76% | $9K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/new-hampshire-governor-winner/ |
| Hawaii Governor winner? | Democratic party (Democratic) | 98% | 98% | $9K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/hawaii-governor-winner/ |
| South Dakota Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 95% | 94% | $6K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/south-dakota-governor-winner/ |
| Arkansas Governor winner? | Republican (Republican) | 98% | 97% | $3K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/arkansas-governor-winner/ |
| Idaho Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 97% | 93% | $2K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/idaho-governor-winner/ |
| Wyoming Governor winner? | Republican party (Republican) | 97% | 97% | $2K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/governor/wyoming-governor-winner/ |

## Primaries & Nominees

| Race | Favored | Model | Market | Volume | Report |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Florida Republican Governor nominee? | Byron Donalds (Toss-up / uncalled) | 96% | 98% | $16.9M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/florida-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? | Ken Paxton (Republican) | 96% | 94% | $14.0M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/texas-republican-senate-nominee/ |
| Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? | Francesca Hong (Toss-up / uncalled) | 87% | 90% | $3.6M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/wisconsin-democratic-governor-nominee/ |
| Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner | Byron Donalds (Toss-up / uncalled) | 97% | 98% | $2.6M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/primary-elections/florida-governor-republican-primary-winner/ |
| Maine Democratic Senate nominee? | Graham Platner (Democratic) | 82% | 90% | $2.6M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/maine-democratic-senate-nominee/ |
| South Carolina Republican Governor nominee? | Alan Wilson (Toss-up / uncalled) | 88% | 85% | $2.5M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/south-carolina-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) | 1 Democrat and 1 Republican (Democratic) | 85% | 87% | $1.5M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/california-governor-primary-advancers-party/ |
| Georgia Republican Governor nominee? | Burt Jones (Toss-up / uncalled) | 69% | 77% | $1.3M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/georgia-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| South Dakota Republican Governor nominee? | Larry Rhoden (Toss-up / uncalled) | 91% | 89% | $1.2M | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/south-dakota-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Person) | Steve Hilton (Republican) | 68% | 73% | $830K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/california-governor-primary-advancers-person/ |
| South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner | Darline Graham Nordone (Toss-up / uncalled) | 45% | 48% | $783K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner/ |
| Ohio Republican Governor nominee? | Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) | 95% | 98% | $760K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/ohio-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? | Amy Klobuchar (Toss-up / uncalled) | 79% | 93% | $444K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/minnesota-democratic-governor-nominee/ |
| Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? | Abdul El-Sayed (Democratic) | 36% | 48% | $400K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/michigan-democratic-senate-nominee/ |
| Georgia Democratic Governor nominee? | Keisha Lance Bottoms (Toss-up / uncalled) | 68% | 78% | $182K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/georgia-democratic-governor-nominee/ |
| Michigan Republican Governor nominee? | Perry Johnson (Toss-up / uncalled) | 42% | 53% | $160K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/michigan-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Kentucky Republican Senate nominee? | Andy Barr (Toss-up / uncalled) | 73% | 77% | $160K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/kentucky-republican-senate-nominee/ |
| Louisiana Republican Senate nominee? | Julia Letlow (Toss-up / uncalled) | 61% | 63% | $154K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/louisiana-republican-senate-nominee/ |
| South Carolina Republican Senate nominee? | Lindsey Graham (Toss-up / uncalled) | 86% | 85% | $152K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/south-carolina-republican-senate-nominee/ |
| Georgia Republican Senate nominee? | Mike Collins (Republican) | 61% | 78% | $151K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/georgia-republican-senate-nominee/ |
| Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? | Lisa Demuth (Toss-up / uncalled) | 63% | 63% | $116K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/minnesota-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Alabama Republican Senate nominee? | Barry Moore (Toss-up / uncalled) | 78% | 81% | $110K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/alabama-republican-senate-nominee/ |
| Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout | Above 600k (Toss-up / uncalled) | 100% | 99% | $107K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/ohio-republican-governor-primary-voter-turnout/ |
| Oregon Republican Governor nominee? | Christine Drazan (Toss-up / uncalled) | 78% | 86% | $79K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/oregon-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee? | Gentner Drummond (Toss-up / uncalled) | 38% | 52% | $67K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/oklahoma-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee? | Peggy Flanagan (Toss-up / uncalled) | 73% | 76% | $61K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/minnesota-democratic-senate-nominee/ |
| Arizona Republican Governor nominee? | Andy Biggs (Toss-up / uncalled) | 66% | 97% | $59K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/arizona-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Iowa Republican Governor nominee? | Randy Feenstra (Toss-up / uncalled) | 69% | 81% | $59K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/iowa-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Maine Republican Governor nominee? | Robert Charles (Toss-up / uncalled) | 33% | 44% | $56K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/maine-republican-governor-nominee/ |
| Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? | Tom Begich (Democratic) | 88% | 91% | $49K | https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/who-will-advance-from-alaska-s-top-four-primary-for-governor/ |

## Methodology

Odds are sourced live from Kalshi and Polymarket and paired with Octagon's independent model probability. Each race links to a full Octagon research report. Prediction markets reflect trader expectations, not certainties; nothing here is financial or political advice.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://www.octagonai.co/midterms-tracker
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.