--- title: "Live-Action 'Moana' Debuts to 36% Score, Sinking Prediction Market Odds" date: 2026-07-09T14:41:24.378743+00:00 category: Entertainment event_ticker: KXRT-MOA direction: drop change_pct: -77 price_before: 83.0% price_after: 6.0% anomaly_date: 2026-07-08 last_updated: 2026-07-09T14:41:24.378Z --- # Live-Action 'Moana' Debuts to 36% Score, Sinking Prediction Market Odds ## TL;DR Prediction markets on Kalshi for Disney's live-action *Moana* remake underwent a sharp repricing on July 08, 2026, following the release of initial critical reviews. Contracts for a Rotten Tomatoes score "Above 45" collapsed 77 percentage points from 83% to 6%, driven by the film's debut Tomatometer score of 36%. **Key Market Signals** - **Market Repricing:** The probability for a Rotten Tomatoes score "Above 35" significantly increased by 25.0pp to 49% on Kalshi following the review debut. - **Consensus Shift:** Market consensus on Kalshi for the film's final Rotten Tomatoes score moved sharply lower, now concentrating in the 35-40% range, with "Above 35" at 49% and "Above 40" at 11%. - **Catalyst Identified:** The immediate trigger for the repricing was the film's debut Rotten Tomatoes score of 36% from an initial 74 reviews, contrasting with previous franchise critical success. --- The release of early critical reviews for Disney's live-action *Moana* remake, establishing an initial Tomatometer score of 36%, triggered a sharp repricing in prediction markets for the film's final rating. In Monday's session (July 08, 2026), contracts on the Kalshi exchange for a score "Above 45" plummeted from a probable 83% to just 6%, a 77-percentage-point drop. The move reflects a significant recalibration of trader expectations, shifting the market's consensus from broad optimism based on the animated franchise's success to a much lower range centered on the film's lukewarm initial reception. ## Distribution Analysis The probability collapse in higher-rated outcomes was matched by a surge in contracts for scores in the 30-40% range. The contract for a score "Above 35" saw the largest gain, jumping 25 percentage points to 49%. This redistribution indicates that traders are not simply abandoning bullish positions, but actively re-pricing the film's prospects to align with the new critical data. | Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Above 20 | 99% | +2.0pp | 2,721 | | Above 22 | 98% | +2.0pp | 1,057 | | Above 25 | 98% | ~0pp | 427 | | Above 27 | 96% | +4.0pp | 4,317 | | Above 30 | 92% | +4.0pp | 3,002 | | Above 32 | 84% | ~0pp | 1,933 | | Above 35 | 49% | **+25.0pp** | 16,743 | | Above 37 | 38% | ~0pp | 409 | | Above 40 | 11% | +19.0pp | 33,097 | | Above 65 | 1% | -32.0pp | 6,102 | | Above 60 | 1% | -45.0pp | 20,978 | | Above 55 | 1% | -60.0pp | 79,596 | | Above 50 | 1% | -73.0pp | 128,441 | | Above 45 | 6% | **-77.0pp** | 108,395 | | Above 70 | 1% | -13.0pp | 8,054 | | Above 75 | 1% | -5.0pp | 4,325 | | Above 80 | 1% | -3.0pp | 1,120 | | Above 85 | 1% | -2.0pp | 571 | | Above 90 | 1% | -2.0pp | 1,067 | **Net: 10 of 19 contracts declined on a combined volume of over 358,000 shares, shifting the implied consensus for the film's final score sharply lower into the 35-40% range.** ## What's Driving the Shift - **Lukewarm Critical Debut:** The primary catalyst is the film's debut on Rotten Tomatoes with a 36% score based on an initial 74 reviews. The [critical consensus characterizes the film](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/moana_2026) as "unnecessary and faithful to a fault," suggesting it lacks the novelty and magic that made the original a success. This score stands in stark contrast to the franchise's previous critical darlings. - **Franchise Expectations Reset:** The market had previously priced the live-action remake with optimism reflecting the beloved status of its predecessors. The [original animated *Moana* (2016)](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/moana_2016) holds a 95% "Certified Fresh" rating, while the [2024 animated sequel *Moana 2*](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/moana_2) secured a 61% "Fresh" score. The 36% debut shattered the assumption that the new film would draft off the goodwill of the animated series. - **High-Volume Conviction:** The trading patterns show strong conviction behind the downward repricing. The contracts for scores "Above 50" and "Above 45" saw a combined trading volume of over 236,000 shares, indicating a decisive market move to align expectations with the newly available data rather than speculative sentiment. ## Market Context Prior to the release of early reviews, the market's pricing implied a high probability of another critical success for the *Moana* franchise. The 83% odds for a score above 45 suggested traders believed a "Rotten" rating was a remote possibility. The dramatic sell-off represents a classic market event where a speculative, brand-based valuation is confronted by concrete, film-specific data. The current distribution, with "Above 35" priced at 49% and "Above 40" at 11%, suggests traders believe the final score is most likely to settle in the high 30s. This implies the market views the initial 74 reviews as a representative sample of the final critical pool. ## What to Watch The key variable for this market is how the Tomatometer score evolves as more reviews are added leading up to and following the film's wide release on July 10, 2026. A significant trend upwards or downwards from the initial 36% would likely cause another wave of volatility. The market is scheduled to close on July 13, 2026, with the final score posted on the official Rotten Tomatoes website serving as the settlement source. ## Related Analysis - [Read the complete market report for "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score?](/markets/entertainment/rotten-tomatoes/moana-rotten-tomatoes-score/) ### Relevant Answer Library - [Can prediction markets help forecast IPO timing?](/answers/can-prediction-markets-help-forecast-ipo-timing) - [How do you monitor prediction market moves automatically?](/answers/how-do-you-monitor-prediction-market-moves-automatically) - [Why do prediction market probabilities change so quickly after news events?](/answers/why-do-prediction-market-probabilities-change-so-quickly-after-news-events) - [Browse all Answer Library topics](/answer-library)