---
title: 2026 World Cup Tracker | Live Kalshi Prediction Markets | Octagon
url: https://octagonai.co/world-cup-tracker/
---

# 2026 Men's World Cup Tracker

HTML: https://octagonai.co/world-cup-tracker/

Live Kalshi prediction-market odds for the 2026 Men's World Cup (Jun 11 – Jul 19, USA · Canada · Mexico). Tournament winner, knockout progression, group-stage standings, Golden Boot leaderboard, and team trackers refreshed hourly. Numbers are last-trade or bid/ask midpoint sourced from `api.elections.kalshi.com`.

## Snapshot

- Events tracked: 19/19
- Total markets: 352
- 24h trading volume: $21.4M
- Last refreshed (UTC): 2026-06-25T00:42:24.584Z

## Title contenders

Top 8 nations to win the tournament (event `KXMENWORLDCUP-26`). Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/2026-world-soccer-cup-winner/

| Rank | Country | YES odds | 24h volume |
|---:|---|---:|---:|
| 1 | France | 20.4% | $838.7k |
| 2 | Argentina | 15.5% | $1.2M |
| 3 | Spain | 13.3% | $490.1k |
| 4 | England | 10.4% | $337.8k |
| 5 | Portugal | 8.9% | $1.0M |
| 6 | Netherlands | 6.6% | $839.3k |
| 7 | Brazil | 5.7% | $933.9k |
| 8 | Germany | 5.2% | $305.6k |

## Path to the trophy

YES odds for each top-6 contender at every knockout stage, from Round of 16 through tournament winner. Each column is a separate Kalshi event with its own Octagon report.

Per-stage reports: RO16: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/world-soccer-cup-round-of-16-qualifiers/ · QF: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/world-soccer-cup-quarterfinals-qualifiers/ · SF: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/world-soccer-cup-semifinals-qualifiers/ · F: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/world-soccer-cup-final-qualifiers/ · Win: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/2026-world-soccer-cup-winner/

| Country | RO16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| France | 88.0% | 63.0% | 46.0% | 33.0% | 20.4% |
| Argentina | 84.0% | 66.0% | 48.0% | 31.0% | 15.5% |
| Spain | 82.0% | 59.0% | 47.0% | 28.0% | 13.3% |
| England | 83.0% | 60.0% | 36.0% | 22.0% | 10.4% |
| Portugal | 77.0% | 50.0% | 31.0% | 19.0% | 8.9% |
| Netherlands | 57.0% | 46.0% | 25.0% | 13.0% | 6.6% |

## Group stage

Live YES odds for each team to finish first in their group. Where the corresponding Group Qualifiers event is tracked, the "advances" probability is shown alongside.

### Group A

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-a-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| Mexico | 99.0% |
| Korea Republic | 1.0% |
| South Africa | 1.0% |
| Czechia | 1.0% |

### Group B

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-b-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| Switzerland | 99.0% |
| Canada | 1.0% |
| Qatar | 1.0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.0% |

### Group C

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-c-winner/
Group qualifiers report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-c-qualifiers/

| Team | Wins group | Advances from group |
|---|---:|---:|
| Brazil | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| Scotland | 2.0% | 47.0% |
| Haiti | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Morocco | 1.0% | 99.0% |

### Group D

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-d-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| USA | 99.0% |
| Australia | 1.0% |
| Paraguay | 1.0% |
| Turkiye | 1.0% |

### Group E

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-e-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| Germany | 99.0% |
| Curacao | 1.0% |
| Ivory Coast | 1.0% |
| Ecuador | 1.0% |

### Group F

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-f-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| Netherlands | 78.0% |
| Japan | 20.0% |
| Sweden | 4.0% |
| Tunisia | 1.0% |

### Group I

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-i-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| France | 81.0% |
| Norway | 20.0% |
| Senegal | 1.0% |
| Iraq | 1.0% |

### Group K

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-k-winner/

| Team | Wins group |
|---|---:|
| Portugal | 54.0% |
| Colombia | 47.0% |
| Uzbekistan | 1.0% |
| Jamaica | 1.0% |
| Congo DR | 1.0% |
| New Caledonia | 1.0% |

### Group L

Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-l-winner/
Group qualifiers report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/group-l-qualifiers/

| Team | Wins group | Advances from group |
|---|---:|---:|
| England | 87.0% | 99.0% |
| Croatia | 9.0% | 94.0% |
| Ghana | 5.0% | 99.0% |
| Panama | 1.0% | 1.0% |

## Golden Boot (top 10)

Tournament top-scorer odds (event `KXWCGOALLEADER-26`). Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/golden-boot-winner/

| Rank | Player | YES odds | 24h volume |
|---:|---|---:|---:|
| 1 | Lionel Messi | 39.0% | $81.4k |
| 2 | Kylian Mbappe | 32.0% | $28.8k |
| 3 | Erling Haaland | 10.0% | $15.9k |
| 4 | Harry Kane | 6.0% | $10.6k |
| 5 | Cristiano Ronaldo | 4.0% | $33.2k |
| 6 | Vinicius Junior | 3.0% | $122.7k |
| 7 | Mikel Oyarzabal | 2.0% | $12.2k |
| 8 | Matheus Cunha | 2.0% | $491 |
| 9 | Jonathan David | 2.0% | $3.8k |
| 10 | Deniz Undav | 2.0% | $3.2k |

## Continental winner

Confederation that produces the champion (event `KXWCCONTINENT-26`). Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/continent-to-win-the-men-s-world-cup/

| Confederation | YES odds |
|---|---:|
| Europe | 69.0% |
| South America | 22.0% |
| North America | 5.0% |
| Africa | 4.0% |
| Asia or Oceania | 3.0% |

## Mexico — stage of elimination

How far the market expects Mexico to advance (event `KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26MEX`). Report: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/soccer/mexico-stage-of-elimination/

| Stage | Probability |
|---|---:|
| Round of 16 | 36.0% |
| Round of 32 | 31.0% |
| Quarterfinals | 14.0% |
| Runner-Up | 13.0% |
| Semifinals | 10.0% |
| Outright Winner | 3.0% |
| Group Stage | 1.0% |

## Methodology

- Source: Kalshi public events API (`api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/{ticker}`).
- Update cadence: hourly Astro rebuild on the deploy workflow; per-request 10s timeout with soft-fail per event.
- Probability shown: last-trade price when present, else midpoint of the YES bid/ask. Cents are normalised to 0..1 dollars.
- Each row on the live page routes to the matching Octagon analysis report; this markdown mirrors the same routing so machine readers reach the same source content.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/world-cup-tracker
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.