How are contracts settled on Polymarket compared to Kalshi?

Detailed Explanation

Settlement mechanics differ significantly between the two platforms. Kalshi contracts specify objective resolution criteria tied to authoritative data sources, such as government agencies or official statistical releases. These criteria are reviewed as part of the regulatory process, reducing ambiguity and dispute risk.

Polymarket uses decentralized or platform-managed oracle systems to determine outcomes. While this allows flexibility and rapid market creation, it also introduces reliance on governance processes and interpretation of external data. For users, the key distinction is that settlement on Kalshi is more tightly bound to formal definitions, whereas Polymarket settlement may require closer scrutiny of resolution rules and governance procedures.

Common Scenarios

• Evaluating settlement risk before trading
• Comparing confidence in outcome determination
• Assessing suitability for enterprise analysis
• Understanding dispute resolution pathways

Exceptions & Edge Cases

• If external data sources are delayed, then settlement may lag.
• If outcomes are ambiguous, then interpretation risk increases.
• If governance disputes arise, then trust becomes critical.

Practical Examples

• A CPI contract settles on Kalshi using Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
• A similar market on Polymarket resolves via oracle consensus referencing public data.

Actionable Takeaways

• ✅ Read settlement criteria carefully
• ✅ Prefer clear, objective resolution sources
• ✅ Account for governance risk where applicable
• ✅ Align settlement structure with your use case

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