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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
What will Trump say during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips?
Market at 1c is 0.6pp above the 0.4% model, potentially overvaluing the "No Tax on Tips" focus.
Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers
Market at 63c exceeds the 52.4% model by 10.6pp, noting incomplete Play-In probability analysis.
US gas prices this week
Model's 98.5% slightly exceeds 98c market (+0.5pp gap), implying 1.0x payout from SPR refills, less EV destruction.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.