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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
Model (4.7%) forecasts lower probability than 7c market (7.4%), a 2.7% gap reflecting procedural dismissals.
Who will win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?
Model sees 13.4% (10.0x payout) for Oh Se-hoon, exceeding 10c market price despite trailing in key swing districts.
largadosypelados vs. MIBR Academy: Map 1
Model estimates 54.5% probability vs 0c market, implying a +54.5% gap due to Nuke win rate and CT-side strength.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.