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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
The 1c market price (1.0%) for rates staying is above the 0.4% model, contrasting 97-98% consensus for this outcome.
The Cj Cup Byron Nelson: Top 20 Finishers
Market prices 8c for a top-20 finish, 4.9pp above model despite Moore leading, implying 12.5x payout.
Nedic vs Jorda Sanchis
Model's 31.2% probability for Nedic is higher than the 25c market, suggesting a 4.0x payout for his 1-0 H2H lead.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.