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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Will Justin Bieber have a #1 hit this year?
Model's 22.2% probability versus the 15c market suggests a 6.7x payout multiple, implying undervaluation of Bieber's current relevance.
Will Ye and Travis Scott release a joint album this year?
At 24c, the market prices higher than the 22.4% model estimate, lacking official confirmation for a joint album.
Brazil unemployment rate in April
Model (92%) sees 1.0pp higher probability of rising April unemployment, driven by declining confidence, for a 1.1x payout.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.