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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Model's 60.3% probability (2.0x payout) vs 50c market attributes higher likelihood to ongoing AI efficiency initiatives.
Bruno Mars streams up this week?
Market and model align at 71% for streams to rise, driven by 'The Collaborations' album release.
Olivia Dean streams up this week?
Model sees 28.4% probability vs 21c market price, implying a 4.8x payout multiple as streams already spiked this week.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.