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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Highest temperature in NYC on Apr 4, 2026?
Model's 0.9% for sub-40°F is slightly below 1c market (100x payout), as extreme cold is improbable given forecasts.
Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?
Model's 29% probability (2.9x payout) is 5 points below the 34c market, as Kraken paused its IPO.
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
Model's 20.1% probability of US equity stakes (DPA/Trump policy) in critical firms exceeds 13c market, 7.7x payout.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.