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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
The market's 24c is 4% below the 28% model estimate (4.2x payout), given AGI clause challenges and unconfirmed GPT-6.
Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase?
With no probability gap, model and market align at 5% (5c), reflecting strong evidence Dimon is staying.
Costco raises hot dog combo price?
Model and market agree at 11.5%, consistent with improved margins and the CFO's strategy to avoid loss leader price hikes.
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Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.