Prediction Markets Research

Octagon AI provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.

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Active Markets (251)

GTA 6 release date?
GTA 6 release date?
Before August 2026
Market Model 3.0% 22.4%
Before June 2026
Market Model 2.0% 21.6%
$1,889,339 New
Milwaukee vs Kansas City
Milwaukee vs Kansas City
yes Bobby Witt Jr.: 1+,yes Maikel Garcia: 1+
Market Model 51.8% 49.0%
yes Bobby Witt Jr.: 1+,yes Brice Turang: 1+
Market Model 51.2% 48.4%
$64 New
Miami vs New York Y
Miami vs New York Y
yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs
Market Model 56.9% 60.5%
yes Xavier Edwards: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
$22 New
Combo
Combo
yes Atlanta,yes Boston,yes New York,yes Philadelphia,yes Toronto,yes Houston
Market Model 37.1% 100.0%
yes Atlanta,yes Boston,yes Chicago,yes Philadelphia,yes Toronto,yes Houston
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
$188 New
Combo
Combo
yes TB Lightning,yes DAL Stars
Market Model 31.6% 25.3%
yes BOS Bruins,yes DAL Stars
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
$30 New
New York M vs San Francisco
New York M vs San Francisco
yes Rafael Devers: 1+,yes Francisco Lindor: 2+
Market Model 34.3% 18.4%
yes Francisco Lindor: 1+,yes Rafael Devers: 1+
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
$27 New
Combo
Combo
yes Varvara Lepchenko,yes Marie Bouzkova,yes Anna Kalinskaya,yes Madison Keys,yes Jessica Pegula
Market Model 5.3% 1.9%
yes Emiliana Arango,yes Marie Bouzkova,yes Iva Jovic,yes Madison Keys,yes Jessica Pegula
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
$1,766 New
San Diego vs Boston
San Diego vs Boston
yes Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+,yes Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2+
Market Model 54.3% 51.8%
yes Jackson Merrill: 1+,yes Jarren Duran: 1+
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
$177 New
Combo
Combo
yes Kerry Carpenter: 1+,yes Spencer Torkelson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+,yes Detroit wins by over 1.5 runs
Market Model 16.5% 13.3%
yes Kevin McGonigle: 1+,yes Riley Greene: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+,yes Detroit wins by over 1.5 runs
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
$85 New
Combo
Combo
yes Freddie Freeman: 1+,yes Trent Grisham: 1+,yes Manny Machado: 1+
Market Model 0.8% 0.6%
yes Freddie Freeman: 1+,yes Giancarlo Stanton: 1+,yes Wilyer Abreu: 1+
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
$9,583 New
St. Louis vs Detroit
St. Louis vs Detroit
yes Detroit,yes Dillon Dingler: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+
Market Model 36.0% 32.2%
yes Detroit,yes Javier Báez: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 6+
Market Model 22.8% 19.0%
$93 New
Indiana at Charlotte
Indiana at Charlotte
yes Charlotte,yes Philadelphia
Market Model 51.9% 53.5%
yes Indiana,yes Minnesota
Market Model 3.9% 4.0%
$370 New
Indiana at Charlotte
Indiana at Charlotte
yes Charlotte,yes Arizona
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
yes Charlotte,yes Michigan
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
$0 New
Combo
Combo
yes Chicago,yes Indiana,yes Minnesota
Market Model 0.4% 0.6%
yes Chicago,yes Indiana,yes Philadelphia
Market Model 0.5% 0.7%
$9,678 New
Uchiyama vs Added
Uchiyama vs Added
Dan Added
Market Model 24.0% 43.3%
Yasutaka Uchiyama
Market Model 79.0% 56.7%
$816,957 New
Tammaro vs Ferrari
Tammaro vs Ferrari
Mariano Tammaro
Market Model 70.0% 1.0%
Gianmarco Ferrari
Market Model 40.0% 99.0%
$91,417 New
Rehberg vs La Vela
Rehberg vs La Vela
Giuseppe La Vela
Market Model 60.0% 78.2%
Max Hans Rehberg
Market Model 38.0% 21.9%
$146,489 New
Tiafoe vs Cazaux
Tiafoe vs Cazaux
Frances Tiafoe
Market Model 68.0% 80.0%
Arthur Cazaux
Market Model 34.0% 20.0%
$320,623 New
Cadenasso vs Midon
Cadenasso vs Midon
Lautaro Midon
Market Model 40.0% 62.0%
Gianluca Cadenasso
Market Model 62.0% 38.0%
$78,417 New
Event Market Model Conf Volume
Highest temperature in NYC on Apr 4, 2026?
Top outcome: 67° or below
 1.0% 0.9% Med $194,071 New
Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?
Top outcome: Citigroup
 37.0% 29.0% High $79,352 New
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
Top outcome: Anduril
 20.0% 20.1% Med $292,819 New
Texas Republican Senate nominee?
Top outcome: Ken Paxton
 64.0% 58.9% High $11,985,510 New
CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket
Top outcome: CB Malaga
 33.0% 34.0% High $377 New
Valero Texas Open Winner
Top outcome: Ludvig Aberg
 14.0% 12.1% Med $30,441,794 New
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?
Yes refers to: Before 2029
 43.0% 51.0% Med $5,239 New
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029
 7.0% 6.4% Med $105,682 New
Will Johnny Depp be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?
Yes refers to: Johnny Depp
 48.0% 50.0% Med $17,712 New
Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2050
 31.5% 31.5% Med $22,942 New
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Yes refers to: Before 2050
 80.0% 82.1% Med $11,483 New
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Yes refers to: Before 2050
 28.0% 36.7% Med $8,851 New
GTA 6 release date?
Top outcome: Before August 2026
 3.0% 22.4% High $1,889,339 New
Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians
Top outcome: Mumbai Indians
 42.0% 45.5% High $2,956,523 New
Navone vs Van de Zandschulp
Top outcome: Mariano Navone
 35.0% 42.6% High $980,580 New
Women's Championship: South Carolina vs UCLA
Top outcome: South Carolina
 60.0% 56.3% High $5,681,832 New
Valero Texas Open: Top 20 Finishers
Top outcome: Sudarshan Yellamaraju
 18.0% 8.8% Med $976,565 New
St. Louis vs Detroit: First 5 Innings Total
Top outcome: Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings
 23.0% 27.6% High $15,492 New
Combo
Yes refers to: yes Detroit,yes Boston,yes Texas,yes Milwaukee,yes A's,no Los Angeles D wins by over 2.5 runs,no Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 runs,no Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs,no New York M wins by over 2.5 runs,no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored
 0.2% 0.5% Med $6,818 New
Milwaukee vs Kansas City
Top outcome: yes Bobby Witt Jr.: 1+,yes Maikel Garcia: 1+
 51.8% 49.0% Med $64 New
Miami vs New York Y
Top outcome: yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs
 56.9% 60.5% Med $22 New
Combo
Top outcome: yes Atlanta,yes Boston,yes New York,yes Philadelphia,yes Toronto,yes Houston
 37.1% 100.0% Med $188 New
Combo
Top outcome: yes TB Lightning,yes DAL Stars
 31.6% 25.3% Med $30 New
New York M vs San Francisco
Top outcome: yes Rafael Devers: 1+,yes Francisco Lindor: 2+
 34.3% 18.4% Med $27 New
Combo
Top outcome: yes Varvara Lepchenko,yes Marie Bouzkova,yes Anna Kalinskaya,yes Madison Keys,yes Jessica Pegula
 5.3% 1.9% Med $1,766 New
San Diego vs Boston
Top outcome: yes Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+,yes Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2+
 54.3% 51.8% Med $177 New
Combo
Top outcome: yes Kerry Carpenter: 1+,yes Spencer Torkelson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+,yes Detroit wins by over 1.5 runs
 16.5% 13.3% Med $85 New
Combo
Top outcome: yes Freddie Freeman: 1+,yes Trent Grisham: 1+,yes Manny Machado: 1+
 0.8% 0.6% Med $9,583 New
St. Louis vs Detroit
Top outcome: yes Detroit,yes Dillon Dingler: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+
 36.0% 32.2% Med $93 New
Indiana at Charlotte
Top outcome: yes Charlotte,yes Philadelphia
 51.9% 53.5% Med $370 New
Indiana at Charlotte
Top outcome: yes Charlotte,yes Arizona
 0.0% 0.0% Med $0 New
Combo
Top outcome: yes Chicago,yes Indiana,yes Minnesota
 0.4% 0.6% Med $9,678 New
US gas prices this week
Top outcome: Above 4.040
 99.0% 98.8% High $791,870 New
How long will the government shutdown last?
Top outcome: At least 50 days
 97.0% 96.5% High $14,384,775 New
When will DHS be funded again?
Top outcome: Before Apr 8, 2026
 3.0% 1.0% Med $13,236,065 New
When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General?
Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026
 76.0% 74.0% High $4,405,941 New
Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 1, 2026?
Top outcome: Above 10
 1.0% 1.1% High $572,720 New
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Top outcome: Todd Blanche
 33.0% 22.0% High $602,678 New
How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year?
Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter
 12.0% 7.9% High $67,236 New
When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027
 20.0% 13.4% High $76,872 New
Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Top outcome: Kolkata Knight Riders
 17.0% 17.0% High $5,303,762 New
How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Top outcome: Below $60,000.00
 80.0% 77.5% High $2,198,030 New
Price of Solana by end of 2026?
Top outcome: 150 or above
 21.0% 23.8% High $127,466 New
What will MegaETH FDV be at 10:00 AM ET 1 day after launch?
Top outcome: Above $5,000,000,000
 3.0% 4.6% High $38,345 New
Will GTE deploy on MegaETH mainnet day 1?
Yes refers to: Yes
 22.0% 36.2% Med $8,169 New
Dhamne vs Blanchet
Top outcome: Ugo Blanchet
 93.0% 92.8% High $949,412 New
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
Top outcome: $180.01 or above
 19.2% 19.3% High $2,767,745 New
Dalla Valle vs Chazal
Top outcome: Maxime Chazal
 86.0% 82.7% High $646,786 New
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
Top outcome: 70,000 to 74,999.99
 6.2% 3.9% High $14,039,217 New
North Carolina Basketball - Next Head Coach
Top outcome: Tommy Lloyd
 29.0% 26.5% High $2,344,094 New
How long will the Pro Women's Basketball season be delayed?
Top outcome: 1 day or more
 5.0% 16.5% High $30,667 New
How many games will be played in the Pro Women's Basketball season?
Top outcome: At least 100% of total games
 95.0% 96.5% High $13,114 New
Will at least 1 game be played in the Pro Women's Basketball season?
Yes refers to: At least 1 game played
 95.0% 96.8% Med $3,884 New
Will there be a new Pro Basketball team added before 2030?
Yes refers to: Before 2030
 90.0% 92.3% Med $9,140 New
Which cities will receive Pro Basketball expansion teams before 2028?
Top outcome: Las Vegas
 81.0% 69.5% High $15,127 New
Will LeBron James be a majority owner of a men's Pro Basketball team before 2030?
Yes refers to: Before 2030
 13.0% 8.5% Med $6,973 New
Portland Trailblazers bought and changed to Seattle SuperSonics?
Yes refers to: Before 2030
 5.0% 2.9% Med $8,512 New
Men's College Basketball Champion
Top outcome: Arizona
 34.0% 28.9% High $206,150,772 New
Kopriva vs Medjedovic
Top outcome: Vit Kopriva
 82.0% 75.0% High $1,141,122 New
Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
Top outcome: Before May
 4.0% 1.4% High $800,323 New
FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament Winner
Top outcome: Hikaru Nakamura
 8.0% 8.7% High $920,627 New
Molcan vs Clarke
Top outcome: Jay Clarke
 43.0% 32.4% High $862,990 New
Cerundolo vs Majchrzak
Top outcome: Kamil Majchrzak
 86.0% 85.1% High $756,054 New
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 18.0% 18.0% Med $756,255 New
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
Top outcome: Above 9%
 52.0% 53.5% High $11,384 New
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
Top outcome: Rupert Lowe
 6.0% 6.0% High $457,285 New
When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
Top outcome: Before April 2026
 1.0% 1.1% High $4,897,991 New
Men's Championship Game Qualifiers
Top outcome: Arizona
 49.0% 50.0% Med $1,443,747 New
Seed to win the Men's College Basketball Championship
Top outcome: #1 seed
 70.0% 69.4% High $1,053,927 New
Texas Children's Houston Open: Top 20 Finishers
Top outcome: Jake Knapp
 35.0% 11.2% Med $1,294,770 New
Men's Semifinals Qualifiers
Top outcome: Duke
 68.0% 69.2% Med $6,089,006 New
SpaceX Starship 12th launch?
Top outcome: Before May
 83.0% 65.4% High $1,045,254 New
2026 Texas Senate matchup?
Top outcome: Talarico vs. Paxton
 68.0% 71.4% High $3,655,621 New
How high will Ethereum get in 2026?
Top outcome: Above $6,000.00
 9.0% 7.6% High $1,351,841 New
How high will Solana get in 2026?
Top outcome: Above $170.00
 33.0% 25.5% High $218,470 New
Ethereum price at the end of 2026
Top outcome: 2,250 to 2,499.99
 7.7% 8.0% High $4,838,254 New
Hercog vs Korpatsch
Top outcome: Tamara Korpatsch
 54.0% 36.8% High $1,386,218 New
Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup® before the 2031 season?
Yes refers to: Before 2031
 64.0% 65.8% Med $2,913 New
Who will perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?
Top outcome: Olivia Rodrigo
 68.0% 52.9% Med $1,764 New
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 78.0% 78.3% High $394,734 New
Who will Trump pardon?
Top outcome: Donald Trump
 59.0% 100.0% High $224,868 New
2028 Republican nominee for President?
Top outcome: Marco Rubio
 27.1% 28.8% High $25,693,763 New
Pro Basketball Champion?
Top outcome: San Antonio
 16.0% 14.5% High $45,468,278 New
2028 Democratic nominee for President?
Top outcome: Gavin Newsom
 27.3% 31.9% High $71,900,324 New
Stanley Cup® Champion?
Top outcome: Colorado Avalanche
 20.0% 15.8% High $16,100,846 New
Oklahoma City pro basketball wins this season?
Top outcome: 75+ wins
 1.0% 0.8% High $712,449 New
USD/BRL high in 20​26
Top outcome: 7 or above
 25.0% 18.0% High $542,760 New
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
Top outcome: Below 300
 11.0% 5.5% High $26,513 New
Will Trump balance the budget?
Yes refers to: During Trump's term
 12.0% 8.4% Med $40,327 New
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Top outcome: Clarence Thomas
 50.0% 27.0% Med $51,480 New
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?
Yes refers to: Before 2029
 14.0% 9.2% Med $53,434 New
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
Top outcome: $40 trillion
 98.0% 96.8% Med $65,704 New
How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?
Top outcome: At least 250 billion
 10.0% 5.0% High $69,966 New
Will Congress override Trump's veto?
Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029
 38.0% 15.3% High $98,074 New
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
Yes refers to: Before 2029
 12.0% 7.8% Med $109,977 New
Will Trump resign during his term?
Yes refers to: Before his term ends
 24.0% 16.3% Med $166,509 New
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Yes refers to: Before his term ends
 22.0% 14.9% Med $296,443 New
Will the US acquire any new territory?
Top outcome: Before Jan 2027
 13.0% 6.5% High $591,333 New
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
Top outcome: Greenland
 4.0% 18.7% High $594,741 New
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition
 78.0% 94.4% High $1,023,227 New
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029
 35.0% 27.1% High $3,752,771 New
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Top outcome: United States
 69.0% 65.2% Med $97,619 New
College Hockey National Championship Winner
Top outcome: North Dakota
 18.0% 14.3% High $110,266 New
Texas Senate: Exact outcome
Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico
 39.0% 34.2% Med $1,158 New
Who will the next Pope be?
Top outcome: Peter Erdo
 6.0% 11.2% High $77,974 New
Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep?
Yes refers to: Yes
 43.0% 31.8% Med $32,029 New
Will Trump bring back manufacturing?
Yes refers to: Before 2029
 11.0% 13.6% Med $18,754 New
Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
Top outcome: Hakeem Jeffries
 79.0% 59.2% High $16,077 New
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Top outcome: Anthropic
 44.0% 31.0% Med $84,681 New
Who will be the world's first trillionaire?
Top outcome: Elon Musk
 88.0% 83.4% High $171,344 New
Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?
Top outcome: Naftali Bennett
 31.0% 30.6% High $53,101 New
Merrimack vs North Dakota
Top outcome: North Dakota
 71.0% 58.6% High $372 New
Connecticut vs Michigan State
Top outcome: Michigan State
 67.0% 76.4% High $2,526 New
Lulea Hockey vs Frolunda HC
Top outcome: Frolunda HC
 64.0% 64.9% High $745 New
Uchiyama vs Added
Top outcome: Dan Added
 24.0% 43.3% High $816,957 New
Stanley Cup® Playoff Qualifiers
Top outcome: San Jose Sharks
 11.0% 7.2% Med $2,025,883 New
Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
Top outcome: Disney
 8.0% 1.9% Med $70,080 New
Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
Yes refers to: Hires
 21.0% 14.1% Med $35,324 New
Will Elon purchase Ryanair?
Yes refers to: Yes
 8.0% 5.1% Med $80,724 New
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026
 4.0% 2.4% High $245,481 New
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard
 16.0% 13.4% High $1,754,507 New
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Top outcome: Oil
 40.0% 44.7% High $79,853 New
U.S. oil production per day in 2026
Top outcome: At least 14.40M bpd
 30.0% 14.7% High $657 New
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?
Top outcome: Rhode Island
 36.0% 30.1% Med $276,968 New
Who will visit Iran before July?
Top outcome: Reza Pahlavi
 11.0% 9.5% High $113,976 New
Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
Yes refers to: Before 2028
 15.0% 9.8% Med $15,061 New
How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026?
Top outcome: above 1000
 45.0% 39.1% High $61,733 New
Who will be the next James Bond?
Top outcome: Callum Turner
 50.0% 30.2% Med $416,270 New
What will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?
Top outcome: More than $100
 11.0% 6.4% High $426,333 New
St. John's at Duke
Top outcome: St. John's
 30.0% 26.2% High $447,271 New
CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly -0.2%
 7.0% 6.0% High $595,061 New
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 49.0% 28.2% High $2,053,575 New
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
Yes refers to: Yes
 8.0% 5.1% Med $117,199 New
Trinidense vs CD Recoleta
Top outcome: CD Recoleta
 12.0% 11.8% High $13,105 New
Guayaquil City vs Leones
Top outcome: Guayaquil City
 47.0% 37.1% High $15,829 New
Independ. Santa Fe vs Ind. Medellin
Top outcome: Independ. Santa Fe
 68.0% 62.3% Med $67,201 New
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly 2.3%
 7.0% 4.0% High $708,794 New
Men's College Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player
Top outcome: Darius Acuff Jr.
 5.0% 3.1% High $133,083 New
Iowa at Florida
Top outcome: Florida
 52.0% 82.0% Med $13,462,903 New
Bassols Ribera vs Niemeier
Top outcome: Marina Bassols Ribera
 43.0% 47.5% High $57,528 New
Ivashka vs Albot
Top outcome: Ilya Ivashka
 41.0% 42.0% High $449 New
Yevseyev vs Vrbensky
Top outcome: Denis Yevseyev
 62.0% 60.8% Med $5,439 New
Tammaro vs Ferrari
Top outcome: Mariano Tammaro
 70.0% 1.0% High $91,417 New
Rehberg vs La Vela
Top outcome: Giuseppe La Vela
 60.0% 78.2% High $146,489 New
Miami (FL) at Purdue
Top outcome: Purdue
 76.0% 80.6% High $1,042,007 New
Valspar Championship Top 20 Finisher
Top outcome: Jacob Bridgeman
 60.0% 100.0% Med $1,755,933 New
Valspar Championship Top 10 Finisher
Top outcome: Brooks Koepka
 40.0% 40.0% Med $839,346 New
Tiafoe vs Cazaux
Top outcome: Frances Tiafoe
 68.0% 80.0% High $320,623 New
Cadenasso vs Midon
Top outcome: Lautaro Midon
 40.0% 62.0% High $78,417 New
Sevilla vs Valencia
Top outcome: Sevilla
 14.0% 45.0% High $223,590 New
Tondela vs AVS Futebol SAD
Top outcome: Tondela
 50.0% 53.3% High $1,504 New
Louisville City vs Rhode Island FC
Top outcome: Louisville City
 66.0% 70.0% High $1,471 New
Houston vs Boston Legacy FC
Top outcome: Houston
 37.0% 100.0% High $1,467 New
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
Yes refers to: Mars
 10.0% 1.6% Med $56,620 New
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
Yes refers to: Before 2035
 41.0% 24.2% Med $18,007 New
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
Yes refers to: Before 2035
 41.0% 20.4% Med $41,727 New
Will Ramp or Brex IPO first?
Top outcome: Brex
 10.0% 1.5% Med $15,443 New
Tesla Roadsters delivered this year?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027
 18.0% 1.1% Med $26,492 New
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?
Top outcome: 340000 or more
 65.0% 65.0% Med $546,589 New
Inflation in Mar 2026 (CPI YoY)
Top outcome: Above 3.1%
 78.0% 35.0% Med $575,935 New
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Top outcome: Cut >25bps
 12.0% 7.8% High $377,365 New
LIV Golf South Africa Top 10 Finisher
Top outcome: Jon Rahm
 74.0% 74.0% Med $8,999 New
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Top outcome: Above 160
 56.0% 56.0% Med $90,305 New
Will Deel or Rippling IPO first?
Top outcome: Deel
 73.0% 82.3% High $4,789 New
Next Fed rate hike?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 15.0% 2.5% Med $1,203,085 New
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Top outcome: Scottie Scheffler
 57.0% 62.0% Med $298,232 New
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Top outcome: Marco Rubio
 17.0% 19.5% High $18,744,212 New
2026 Grammy nominations for Song of the Year?
Top outcome: The Fate of Ophelia
 92.0% 95.0% Med $0 New
Who will play Britney Spears in the Jon M. Chu–directed biopic?
Top outcome: Addison Rae
 20.0% 10.0% Med $1,707 New
2026 Grammy nominations for Album of the Year?
Top outcome: Lux
 59.0% 56.5% Med $1,341 New
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?
Top outcome: Buffalo Sabres
 15.0% 13.5% High $972,208 New
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
Yes refers to: Grants license
 23.0% 20.5% Med $348,996 New
How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026?
Top outcome: Above 0.0%
 90.0% 95.0% Med $167,316 New
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027
 54.0% 68.0% Med $116,636 New
How low will the S&P get this year?
Top outcome: 5,900 or below
 50.0% 52.0% Med $245,278 New
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly 2.3%
 5.0% 1.2% High $1,022,794 New
CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly 0.6%
 15.0% 4.0% High $204,761 New
Netflix price increase in 2026?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 76.0% 81.0% Med $144,574 New
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly 3.3%
 5.0% 2.3% High $298,090 New
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027?
Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use
 24.0% 24.5% Med $89,594 New
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones
 68.0% 65.5% Med $56,957 New
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi
 21.0% 21.5% Med $711,678 New
Recession this year?
Yes refers to: Starts
 24.0% 24.5% Med $462,943 New
How much will the Steam Machine cost?
Top outcome: At least $900
 29.0% 15.0% Med $96,385 New
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
Top outcome: At least 250 billion
 7.0% 9.0% Med $152,669 New
How high will inflation get this year?
Top outcome: At least 3%
 73.0% 73.0% Med $61,885 New
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Top outcome: xAI
 54.0% 53.5% Med $842,732 New
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Top outcome: Above 5%
 46.0% 36.5% Med $333,505 New
GDP growth in 2026?
Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5
 5.0% 4.5% High $64,899 New
More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?
Yes refers to: Yes
 71.2% 86.1% Med $229,780 New
Which bank will take SpaceX public?
Top outcome: Citigroup
 87.0% 86.5% Med $647,231 New
When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027
 14.0% 83.0% Med $112,820 New
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Top outcome: At least 1000
 98.0% 25.0% Med $110,847 New
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
Yes refers to: By 2030
 22.0% 20.0% Med $57,276 New
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
Yes refers to: Before 2030
 30.0% 31.0% Med $52,761 New
Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
Top outcome: Paramount
 81.0% 74.0% Med $2,631,225 New
When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 37.0% 95.0% Med $153,528 New
Western Conference Finals Winner?
Top outcome: Colorado Avalanche
 36.0% 34.5% High $1,062,142 New
Who will win Survivor Season 50?
Top outcome: Aubry Bracco
 82.0% 72.6% High $4,555,613 New
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top outcome: Judy Shelton
 5.0% 3.8% High $196,269,477 New
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Top outcome: Before 2028
 27.0% 68.0% Med $571,972 New
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Top outcome: Cut 25bps
 15.0% 4.5% Med $201,833 New
How low will Ethereum get in 2026?
Top outcome: Below $1,500.00
 63.0% 68.5% Med $171,855 New
Who will acquire Pinterest this year?
Top outcome: OpenAI
 14.0% 16.0% Med $66,300 New
When will Discord officially announce an IPO?
Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026
 22.0% 78.0% Med $58,063 New
Will Solana end 2026 over $500?
Yes refers to: na
 6.0% 4.5% Med $181,012 New
When will Apple announce foldable iPhone?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 80.0% 83.5% Med $20,385 New
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Top outcome: Anthropic
 49.0% 37.2% Med $216,897 New
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Top outcome: Valar Atomics
 69.0% 3.0% Med $85,077 New
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
Top outcome: 1 cuts
 12.0% 11.1% Med $67,451 New
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 66.0% 46.5% Med $84,553 New
Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 9.0% 6.3% Med $52,315 New
Measles cases in 2026?
Top outcome: Above 10000
 23.0% 31.5% Med $405,394 New
Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 28.0% 24.5% Med $55,846 New
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts
 16.0% 11.0% Med $1,258,867 New
AI capability growth before July?
Top outcome: At least 1550 score
 40.0% 56.0% Med $70,699 New
Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
Top outcome: United Kingdom
 34.0% 55.0% Med $89,415 New
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes refers to: Positive Growth
 55.0% 65.5% Med $211,755 New
Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026?
Yes refers to: In 2026
 84.0% 72.0% Med $67,649 New
How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Top outcome: Above $99,999.99
 38.0% 85.0% Med $1,897,192 New
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027
 27.0% 18.5% Med $72,743 New
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
Yes refers to: In 2026
 23.0% 27.0% Med $132,837 New
NASA lands on the moon?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 5.0% 6.5% Med $164,960 New
Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?
Yes refers to: Above $200000
 10.0% 9.0% Med $3,226,453 New
Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027?
Yes refers to: Above $250000
 4.0% 8.8% Med $396,970 New
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below
 17.0% 19.2% Med $514,992 New
When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?
Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026
 38.0% 43.5% Med $492,938 New
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 8.0% 8.5% Med $108,581 New
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
Yes refers to: Above 5%
 57.0% 59.0% Med $136,854 New
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
Top outcome: More than $900 Billion
 83.0% 88.0% Med $43,054 New
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 19.0% 19.5% Med $6,438,777 New
Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Top outcome: SpaceX
 92.0% 80.0% Med $681,424 New
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
Yes refers to: In 2026
 33.0% 34.5% Med $81,228 New
Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase?
Top outcome: Before July
 5.0% 6.5% Med $12,539 New
Costco raises hot dog combo price?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 8.0% 1.6% Med $40,031 New
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Top outcome: Before June 2026
 3.0% 30.2% Med $11,864,120 New
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
Yes refers to: Before 2030
 55.0% 55.0% Med $73,763 New
When will Tim Cook leave Apple?
Top outcome: Before 2027
 32.0% 20.0% Med $88,753 New
When will the next US recession start?
Top outcome: Q1 2026
 14.0% 50.0% Med $408,091 New
When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
Top outcome: Before 2028
 15.0% 2.0% Med $46,462 New
When will Dogecoin hit $1?
Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027
 5.0% 4.5% Med $184,132 New
When will xAI release Grok 4.2?
Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026
 99.0% 99.5% Med $18,528 New
DoorDash Total Orders in Q4?
Top outcome: above 870 million
 97.0% 99.5% Med $67,904 New
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
Top outcome: Bitcoin (BTC)
 36.0% 63.7% Med $267,766 New
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Top outcome: Claude
 41.0% 32.5% Med $1,135,017 New
Tesla Optimus released this year?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
 18.0% 22.5% Med $213,169 New
S&P close price end of 2026?
Top outcome: 7,400 to 7,599.99
 11.0% 11.9% Med $826,748 New
How high will the S&P get this year?
Top outcome: 7,200 or above
 62.0% 64.5% Med $241,849 New
Unemployment in January 2026?
Yes refers to: Above 4.7%
 4.0% 9.5% Med $474,278 New
Unemployment rate in Jan 2026?
Yes refers to: Exactly 3.3%
 1.0% 0.5% Med $80,293 New
What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction?
Top outcome: At least $7 million
 81.0% 1.0% Med $499,183 New
Expired Markets (134)
Event Market Model Conf Volume
XRP 15 min · $1.31190 target
— — Med $196 New
Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — High $127,350 New
Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — High $942,140 New
Copper price on Mar 31, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — High $994 New
BTC 15 min · $67,431.59 target
— — Med $85,841.31 New
Bitcoin price range on Mar 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — High $56,414 New
Bitcoin price range on Mar 30, 2026 at 1pm EDT?
— — High $65,422 New
Will Kanye West / Ye release BULLY before Mar 28th?
— — Med $585,116 New
Bitcoin price range on Mar 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — Med $133,289 New
What will Nick Shirley say during his CPAC speech?
— — Med $105,817 New
US gas prices this week
— — High $650,747 New
Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — High $965,890 New
WTI oil price on Mar 26, 2026?
— — High $177,173 New
Tech layoffs up in February 2026?
— — Med $5,719 New
NYC temperature on Mar 24, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
— — High $73 New
How low will Bitcoin get in March?
— — Med $818,877 New
Diallo vs Humbert
— — High $129,247 New
Rublev vs Tabilo
— — High $367,766 New
Eala vs Linette
— — Med $140,062 New
Cirstea vs Mertens
— — High $99,398 New
Loudoun United FC vs Miami
— — High $4,968 New
Number of upsets in the Round of 64
— — Med $1,386,171 New
Parks vs Kraus
— — High $317,360 New
Kouame vs Svajda
— — High $823,643 New
Utah St. at Villanova
— — High $84,190 New
Akron at Texas Tech
— — High $223,138 New
Saint Louis at Georgia
— — High $202,893 New
Missouri at Miami (FL)
— — High $98,988 New
Texas at BYU
— — High $291,134 New
Texas A&M at Saint Mary's
— — High $205,431 New
VCU at North Carolina
— — High $402,916 New
Iowa at Clemson
— — High $87,120 New
UCF at UCLA
— — High $106,272 New
South Florida at Louisville
— — High $1,168,149 New
TCU at Ohio St.
— — High $1,672,326 New
WTI oil price on Mar 20, 2026?
— — High $720,493 New
Bitcoin price on Mar 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
— — Med $796,058 New
Gas prices in the US in Mar 2026?
— — Med $2,781,097 New
How high will Bitcoin get in March?
— — Med $1,499,656 New
Cruz Azul vs Monterrey
— — High $382,486 New
Los Angeles D vs Kansas City
— — High $120,501 New
First Four: Texas vs NC St.
— — High $4,673,463 New
Stephen F. Austin at Tulsa
— — High $216,377 New
Davidson at Oklahoma St.
— — High $871,238 New
Siniakova vs Osorio
— — High $50,727 New
Olimpia vs Luqueno
— — High $30,748 New
Miami at Charlotte
— — High $2,405,820 New
Wyoming at Wichita St.
— — High $413,378 New
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
— — High $10,032,453 New
Liberty vs George Mason: First to Reach 10 Points
— — High $0 New
Kuzmanov vs Gea
— — High $401,194 New
Seidel vs Masarova
— — High $416,123 New
New York Y vs Tampa Bay
— — Med $150,661 New
Ethereum price on Mar 17, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
— — Med $17,311 New
Buse vs Wong
— — High $714,135 New
Sporting CP vs Bodoe/Glimt
— — High $1,701,092 New
Vukic vs Harris
— — High $891,683 New
Phoenix at Toronto
— — High $0 New
What nicknames will Trump say before April?
— — Med $0 New
LIV Golf Singapore Top 5 Finisher
— — Med $0 New
Head-to-Head Matchup: Rahm vs DeChambeau
— — High $1,686 New
Stetson at Eastern Kentucky
— — High $3,709,181 New
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros?
— — Med $2,106,410 New
Head-to-Head Matchup: Niemann vs Garcia
— — High $1,223 New
Passion UA vs. paiN
— — Med $328,601 New
Zarazua vs Hon
— — High $21,119 New
What will Melania say during her United Nations Address?
— — Med $651,472 New
What will Trump say during the Medal of Honor Ceremony?
— — Med $3,299,685 New
Tiafoe vs Bellucci
— — High $920,132 New
St. John's at UConn
— — High $1,955,758 New
What will Dave Portnoy say during his Fox News interview?
— — Med $41,559 New
CPI in Feb 2026?
— — Med $69,788 New
How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025?
— — Med $84,580 New
Who will be the next CEO of Disney?
— — High $55,833 New
What will EA say during their next earnings call?
— — Med $5,770,836 New
GDP growth in 2025?
— — Med $2,593,605 New
US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
— — Med $3,417,113 New
BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes
— — Med $55,143 New
Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 10pm EST?
— — Med $313,435 New
Announcers at Detroit vs New York Professional Basketball Game
— — Med $222,814 New
Announcers at Phoenix vs San Antonio
— — Med $145,180 New
Announcers at Boston vs Golden State Professional Basketball Game
— — Med $69,779 New
Mention: Illinois Senate Democratic Primary Debate
— — Med $17,700 New
WTI oil price on Feb 20, 2026?
— — Med $58,037 New
Bitcoin price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — Med $245,391 New
Ethereum price on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — Med $186,700 New
S&P price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 4pm EST?
— — Med $56,909 New
Best AI this week?
— — Med $334,912 New
US gas prices this week
— — Med $242,507 New
What will Trump say this week?
— — Med $106,085 New
Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026?
— — Med $395,527 New
Best AI in Feb 2026?
— — Med $1,626,854 New
How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026?
— — Med $736,763 New
What will be the top AI model this month?
— — High $2,193,012 New
How high will Bitcoin get in February?
— — Med $1,254,451 New
How low will Bitcoin get in February?
— — Med $1,065,340 New
How high will Ethereum get in February?
— — Med $239,714 New
How low will Ethereum get in February?
— — Med $201,132 New
How high will Solana get in February?
— — Med $102,474 New
How high will XRP get in February?
— — Med $114,244 New
What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?
— — Med $469,075 New
Will Trump say "Bad Bunny" this month?
— — Med $712,853 New
Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?
— — Med $503,843 New
Fed decision in Mar 2026?
— — High $11,022,727 New
What will Powell say during his March press conference?
— — Med $54,276 New
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
— — Med $11,658,168 New
Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video
— — Med $102,289 New
Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting?
— — Med $226,656 New
How much will the government increase spending in 2025?
— — Med $365,355 New
WTI oil price on Feb 13, 2026?
— — Med $103,769 New
BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes
— — Med $57,133 New
S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?
— — Med $59,064 New
Bitcoin price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?
— — High $59,173 New
Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?
— — Med $509,407 New
Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST?
— — Med $64,972 New
Bitcoin price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — High $518,921 New
Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — Med $3,467,644 New
S&P price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 4pm EST?
— — Med $151,752 New
S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 4pm EST?
— — Med $58,466 New
What will Bernie say during his Durham rally?
— — Med $313,557 New
Best AI this week?
— — Med $443,679 New
What will be the top AI model this week?
— — Med $264,092 New
US Gas prices up this week?
— — Med $111,120 New
How much will US debt increase in 2025?
— — Med $178,498 New
Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 of 2026?
— — Med $297,831 New
Coinbase trading volume in Q4?
— — Med $357,769 New
Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?
— — High $84,823 New
Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?
— — Med $719,574 New
Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — Med $737,018 New
Ethereum price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — Med $167,215 New
Ethereum price on Feb 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
— — Med $571,304 New
What will Trump say during the State of the Union?
— — Med $364,706 New
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
— — Med $461,265 New
What will Trump say in February?
— — Med $61,790 New
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