Prediction Markets Research

Octagon provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.

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Active Markets (1120)

When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

Market Model 0.4% 0.2%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 8.0% 2.8%

$1.1M Refresh

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket

↑$3.0T

Market Model 16.0% 8.0%

↑$2.0T

Market Model 39.0% 29.2%

$2.9M Refresh

Largest Company end of September? Polymarket

NVIDIA

Market Model 85.0% 80.7%

Alphabet

Market Model 5.0% 6.4%

$101.1K Refresh

How many SpaceX launches in 2026? Polymarket

200 or more

Market Model 5.0% 6.4%

160-179

Market Model 26.0% 32.0%

$324.6K Refresh

Zscaler customers with arr of at least $1m in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 760

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

Above 770

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

$0 Refresh

Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi

Nithya Raman

Market Model 38.0% 34.1%

Karen Bass

Market Model 62.0% 65.9%

$91.2M Refresh

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

Market Model 1.0% 0.8%

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 27.0% 20.8%

$1.1M Refresh

Hims subscribers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2.95 million

Market Model 96.0% 1.0%

Above 3 million

Market Model 0.0% 0.8%

$199 Refresh

Instacart gross transaction value in Q3 Kalshi

Above $10.7 billion

Market Model 3.0% 1.0%

Above $10.65 billion

Market Model 4.0% 2.0%

$300 Refresh

Instacart gross transaction value in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $42.5 billion

Market Model 23.0% 3.0%

Above $41.5 billion

Market Model 91.0% 8.0%

$2.1K Refresh

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion Polymarket

Shakhtar Donetsk

Market Model 0.2% 0.5%

Real Madrid

Market Model 13.0% 15.8%

$5.7M Refresh

2028 Democratic presidential nominee Kalshi

Gavin Newsom

Market Model 17.0% 17.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Market Model 15.0% 14.5%

$176.2M Refresh

2027 Pro Football Champion Kalshi

Los Angeles R

Market Model 16.0% 21.5%

Dallas

Market Model 4.0% 3.4%

$57.7M Refresh

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Kalshi

Marco Rubio

Market Model 16.0% 18.9%

Jon Ossoff

Market Model 10.0% 10.9%

$58.3M Refresh

Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 8%

Market Model 34.0% 23.9%

Above 14%

Market Model 5.0% 10.0%

$406 Refresh

Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q2 Kalshi

Above 1.5%

Market Model 33.0% 23.9%

Above 3%

Market Model 5.0% 2.0%

$206 Refresh

eToro funded accounts in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.35 million

Market Model 46.0% 9.0%

Above 4.4 million

Market Model 30.0% 7.0%

$2.7K Refresh

Dick's Sporting Goods comparable store sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 7%

Market Model 6.0% 4.0%

Above 2%

Market Model 0.0% 16.7%

$1 Refresh

Best Buy domestic comparable store sales in Q2 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 85.0% 6.0%

Above 4%

Market Model 6.0% 4.0%

$13 Refresh

Medtronic cardiovascular organic growth in Q1 Kalshi

Above 10%

Market Model 34.0% 18.0%

Above 11%

Market Model 16.0% 14.0%

$1.4K Refresh

Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2 Kalshi

Above 6%

Market Model 28.0% 5.0%

Above 2%

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

$400 Refresh

Next Fed rate hike? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 56.0% 33.9%

Before July 2027

Market Model 72.0% 54.2%

$3.5M Refresh

Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 4880

Market Model 8.0% 20.0%

Above 4680

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

$1 Refresh

Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in Q2 Kalshi

Above 4675

Market Model 5.0% 2.0%

Above 4575

Market Model 0.0% 12.0%

$1 Refresh

Expired Markets (1939)

Zeta super-scaled customers (>$1m) in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$30.6K

Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$37.4K

KFC same-store sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$33.2K

Clear+ members in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$82.3K

Wingstop total system-wide restaurants in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$42.8K

Wingstop US same store sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$26.9K

Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$26.0K

Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$59.1K

Uber Trips in Q2? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$106.6K

United Airlines passengers in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$252.4K

Tesla production in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$383.3K

Tesla deliveries in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$841.2K

Toast total locations in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$62.5K

Talen Energy TWh generation in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$113.9K

Constellation Brands Beer Shipments in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$16.6K

Spotify monthly active users in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$24.6K

Spotify headcount in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$6.6K

Snap daily active users in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$80.4K

Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$47.1K

Sweetgreen profit margin in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$127.1K

Sea Garena paying users in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$56.1K

Charles Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$166.7K

Starbucks comparable transactions growth in Q3 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$55.5K

Starbucks total stores in Q3 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$30.2K

Prediction Markets Research

Active Markets (1120)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company