Prediction Markets Research

Octagon provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.

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Active Markets (1252)

Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q3 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

Above 0.5%

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

0 contracts Refresh

Nvidia headcount in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 52000

Market Model 40.0% 27.1%

Above 46000

Market Model 88.0% 86.3%

27.3K contracts Refresh

Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 82%

Market Model 82.0% 62.0%

Above 83.5%

Market Model 21.0% 9.9%

12.5K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 15.0%

$65.6M Refresh

What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention? Kalshi

Radical Left

Market Model 7.0% 2.0%

Made in America / American Made

Market Model 1.0% 0.4%

145.3K contracts Refresh

What will Ted Cruz say during RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

Talarico

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

Election / Midterm

Market Model 99.0% 99.4%

11.8K contracts Refresh

Tencent market share this week Kalshi

Above 6.8%

Market Model 72.0% 79.9%

Above 4.1%

Market Model 99.0% 99.6%

70.3K contracts Refresh

What will Mike Johnson say during RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

Socialism / Socialist

Market Model 98.0% 96.8%

SAVE America Act / SAVE Act

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

20.1K contracts Refresh

What will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

Election / Midterm

Market Model 1.0% 0.3%

Tariff

Market Model 7.0% 2.7%

13.0K contracts Refresh

What will Greg Abbott say during RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

ICE

Market Model 16.0% 10.0%

Data Center

Market Model 47.0% 30.6%

1.2K contracts Refresh

What will Scott Bessent say during RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

Iran / Iranian

Market Model 4.0% 0.9%

China / Chinese

Market Model 2.0% 0.4%

33.6K contracts Refresh

Qwen market share this week Kalshi

Above 6.1%

Market Model 1.0% 0.5%

Above 5.45%

Market Model 12.0% 28.0%

12.4K contracts Refresh

What will Anna Paulina Luna say during RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

Trump

Market Model 1.0% 0.5%

Florida

Market Model 1.0% 0.5%

28.3K contracts Refresh

Who will Trump mention during the RNC Midterm Convention? Kalshi

Event does not qualify

Market Model 1.0% 12.3%

Charlie / Kirk

Market Model 99.0% 87.0%

161.2K contracts Refresh

What will Trump say during the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)? Kalshi

America First

Market Model 1.0% 0.3%

Israel / Israeli

Market Model 1.0% 0.3%

694.4K contracts Refresh

Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Kalshi

Aaron Guckian

Market Model 99.4% 99.5%

Elaine Pelino

Market Model 0.4% 0.4%

216.5K contracts Refresh

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 6

Market Model 33.0% 32.3%

Above 4

Market Model 54.0% 57.2%

2.8K contracts Refresh

ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $24.4 billion

Market Model 94.0% 88.0%

Above $24.7 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

2 contracts Refresh

Medtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2 Kalshi

Above 14%

Market Model 5.0% 2.0%

Above 11.5%

Market Model 41.0% 22.5%

5.0K contracts Refresh

New Jersey Senate winner? Kalshi

Justin Murphy

Market Model 0.2% 0.2%

Cory Booker

Market Model 98.1% 99.8%

39.9K contracts Refresh

California Governor winner? (Person) Kalshi

Steve Hilton

Market Model 4.4% 3.8%

Xavier Becerra

Market Model 95.8% 96.2%

13.6M contracts Refresh

Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi

Michele Tafoya

Market Model 11.0% 11.8%

Peggy Flanagan

Market Model 90.1% 88.2%

519.1K contracts Refresh

Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi

Josh Turek

Market Model 37.0% 36.6%

Ashley Hinson

Market Model 64.0% 63.4%

2.2M contracts Refresh

Wisconsin Governor winner? Kalshi

Tom Tiffany

Market Model 19.0% 25.1%

David Crowley

Market Model 80.0% 74.9%

942.3K contracts Refresh

Expired Markets (2220)

BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.9M contracts

BTC 15 min · $77,795.94 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.7M contracts

BTC 15 min · $77,671.90 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.4M contracts

BTC 15 min · $77,083.74 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

739.3K contracts

BTC 15 min · $77,104.50 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.3M contracts

USDJPY price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.6K contracts

What will Brian Chesky say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia? Kalshi

Agent / Service Agent

Market Model 99.0% 99.6%

World Cup

Market Model 99.0% 98.4%

34.0K contracts

What will Figma CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia? Kalshi

Agent / Agentic

Market Model 99.0% 99.4%

Anthropic / Claude

Market Model 1.0% 0.3%

31.5K contracts

Atlanta vs Philadelphia Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

486.8K contracts

Drake: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

64.1K contracts

Emmy winner: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series Kalshi

Ernest Harden, Jr.

Market Model 98.0% 100.0%

Colman Domingo

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

65.1K contracts

BTC 15 min · $79,960.77 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

696.2K contracts

BTC 15 min · $80,104.17 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

607.1K contracts

BTC price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

23.9K contracts

Kendrick Lamar: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.0K contracts

NBA YoungBoy: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.2K contracts

Kanye West: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.8K contracts

Justin Bieber: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

23.0K contracts

Ford US total vehicles sales in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

91.3K contracts

Prediction Markets Research

Active Markets (1252)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

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