Yes
Market Model 21.0% 10.3%
Politics Markets
Active Markets (165)
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 95.7% 94.6%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 96.0% 94.6%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 8.6%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 20.5%
Before August
Market Model 7.5% 4.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 48.0% 30.8%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Market Model 60.0% 48.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 3.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 4.1% 2.8%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 58.0% 43.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 27.0% 20.8%
Before 2028
Market Model 70.0% 72.2%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.9% 6.9%
Before January 21, 2029
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.5% 4.2%
Kash Patel
Market Model 61.0% 50.0%
Pete Hegseth
Market Model 28.0% 16.7%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 22.0% 11.2%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.7% 3.8%
Before August 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Yes
Market Model 35.0% 36.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 39.0% 21.2%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.2% 5.3%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 1.7%
Yes
Market Model 99.1% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model 99.5% 99.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 17.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 34.0% 32.9%
Before 2027
Market Model 51.0% 35.6%
Before August
Market Model 33.0% 23.5%
Yes
Market Model 89.0% 83.4%
Yes
Market Model 67.0% 55.7%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 36.0% 43.7%
Yes
Market Model 91.0% 93.8%
Yes
Market Model 74.0% 79.7%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Thom Tillis
Market Model 79.0% 72.4%
Susan Collins
Market Model 82.0% 71.1%
0
Market Model 12.0% 15.3%
2
Market Model 16.0% 13.2%
Turkey
Market Model 75.0% 79.3%
Taiwan
Market Model 8.5% 3.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Iran
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Syria
Market Model 12.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 15.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 49.0% 31.6%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 15.4%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 52.0% 30.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 27.0% 14.0%
Yes
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
Saudi Arabia
Market Model 19.0% 7.7%
Lebanon
Market Model 14.0% 6.3%
Below 36%
Market Model 58.0% 59.1%
Below 35%
Market Model 48.0% 49.8%
Yes
Market Model 91.8% 94.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 34.0% 20.6%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Market Model 46.0% 29.2%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 31.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 6.6%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 17.2%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 13.5%
Before Nov 4, 2026
Market Model 25.0% 9.3%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 14.0% 5.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 8.4%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Mandatory body-worn cameras
Market Model 9.9% 6.0%
Visible identification
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
Reserve President Rejected
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
Presser Skipped
Market Model 55.0% 43.0%
Yes
Market Model 55.0% 53.4%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 12.2%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 12.1%
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 85.0% 85.1%
Before Aug 2026
Market Model 38.0% 40.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 36.0% 14.3%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 77.2% 67.7%
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 76.4%
Yes
Market Model 91.0% 92.2%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 65.0% 34.3%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 56.0% 26.3%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 23.9%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 24.7%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 15.0% 7.5%
Derek Chauvin
Market Model 6.1% 2.3%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 73.0% 73.4%
Before Jul 20, 2026
Market Model 69.0% 69.6%
Barron Trump
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
Donald Trump
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
Market Model 11.0% 3.6%
SHOWER Act
Market Model 23.0% 12.2%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 30.0%
Yes
Market Model 5.8% 2.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 28.0% 21.6%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 16.9%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 34.8%
Before Aug 8, 2026
Market Model 38.0% 17.5%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Market Model 44.0% 22.5%
Tim Walz
Market Model 17.0% 8.1%
Ilhan Omar
Market Model 49.0% 36.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.1% 5.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.0%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 10.2%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before August
Market Model 5.0% 2.5%
Above 43%
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Above 44%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 13.4%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Wind turbines
Market Model 49.0% 40.0%
Canadian aircraft
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
James Fishback
Market Model 9.9% 4.0%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.3% 5.6%
Yes
Market Model 39.0% 42.9%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 3.7%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 30.9%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 9.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Before 2028
Market Model 47.0% 44.8%
Decrease 0-0.99%
Market Model 48.0% 38.0%
Increase 0.01-0.99%
Market Model 40.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 49.9%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 21.8%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 12.3%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 32.6%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 60.0% 50.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 0.0% 50.2%
Yes
Market Model 4.7% 5.4%
Donald Trump
Market Model 74.0% 52.6%
Bill Clinton
Market Model 80.0% 73.7%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 22.5%
Japan
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Italy
Market Model 9.9% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 6.1%
0
Market Model 64.0% 64.3%
2
Market Model 20.0% 10.2%
Yes
Market Model 54.0% 55.4%
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 14.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 50.0% 32.4%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 21, 2029
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Yes
Market Model 7.3% 3.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Before 2029
Market Model 40.0% 24.7%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 46.0% 36.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 76.0% 66.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 14.0% 9.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 27.0% 19.9%
Before 2027
Market Model 23.0% 25.8%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 50.0% 51.6%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 61.8%
Yes
Market Model 38.0% 36.6%
Cuba
Market Model 40.0% 18.6%
Russia
Market Model 21.0% 7.0%
Nicolás Maduro
Market Model 13.0% 5.7%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 93.8% 91.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.5%
5
Market Model 1.6% 2.9%
6
Market Model 86.0% 82.7%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 30.3%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 30.0%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 12.1%
Portland
Market Model 21.0% 13.3%
San Francisco
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
No other person
Market Model 52.0% 28.6%
Ron DeSantis
Market Model 16.0% 11.1%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 19.0% 6.5%
Mark Zuckerberg
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 78.0% 61.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 71.0% 53.0%
James Comey
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Barack Obama
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 7.9% 10.6%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 13.1%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 50.0% 37.4%
Reza Pahlavi
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 13.9%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Yes
Market Model 8.4% 4.7%
Nancy Pelosi
Market Model 4.0% 15.1%
Larry Bucshon
Market Model 5.0% 12.6%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
United Nations
Market Model 43.0% 22.3%
World Trade Organization
Market Model 45.0% 22.6%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 6.1%
Amul Thapar
Market Model 9.0% 7.8%
Aileen Cannon
Market Model 12.0% 8.9%
Yes
Market Model 90.1% 91.4%
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 61.4%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 40.0%
Keir Starmer
Market Model 53.0% 44.4%
Sanae Takaichi
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 23.0%
Félix Tshisekedi
Market Model 15.0% 12.6%
Paul Kagame
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 51.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.4%
Todd Blanche
Market Model 64.0% 22.0%
Lee Zeldin
Market Model 18.0% 33.3%
Below 300
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Above 800
Market Model 21.0% 17.6%
Clarence Thomas
Market Model 50.0% 27.0%
Samuel Alito
Market Model 70.0% 49.1%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 15.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 16.3%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before Jan 2028
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Greenland
Market Model 2.3% 18.7%
Venezuela
Market Model 1.8% 6.3%
$0 / No Acquisition
Market Model 78.0% 94.4%
$600 billion to $899 billion
Market Model 6.0% 0.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026 | 21.0% | 10.3% | Med | $672,399.73 | Refresh |
| Keir Starmer departure announced? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 95.7% | 94.6% | High | $2,750,349.81 | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11.0% | 8.6% | High | $54,191.12 | Refresh |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 23.0% | 20.5% | High | $2,153,846.63 | Refresh |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before August | 7.5% | 4.3% | High | $14,100,979.96 | Refresh |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | $3,357,247.16 | Refresh |
| Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 10.8% | High | $2,314,692.22 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.1% | 2.8% | High | $3,631,522.35 | Refresh |
| Will marijuana be rescheduled? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 27.0% | 20.8% | High | $2,317,680.26 | Refresh |
| Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | $2,877,365.04 | Refresh |
| Will the SAVE Act become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 8.9% | 6.9% | Med | $5,723,984.36 | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029 | 30.0% | 15.7% | High | $3,175,830.25 | Refresh |
| Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Top outcome: Kash Patel | 61.0% | 50.0% | Med | $3,855,945.37 | Refresh |
| Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 20, 2029 | 22.0% | 11.2% | High | $7,248,072.05 | Refresh |
| Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.7% | 3.8% | High | $9,322,776.57 | Refresh |
| Will the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House? Yes refers to: Yes | 35.0% | 36.8% | Med | $488,884.35 | Refresh |
| When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 39.0% | 21.2% | High | $19,854,047.04 | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.2% | 5.3% | High | $1,126,742.15 | Refresh |
| Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 99.1% | 100.0% | High | $2,847,550.49 | Refresh |
| When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99.5% | 99.4% | High | $141,149.64 | Refresh |
| Will Congressional salaries increase? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.2% | High | $27 | Refresh |
| Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 51.0% | 35.6% | High | $2,011,609.74 | Refresh |
| When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 89.0% | 83.4% | High | $528,094.54 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits? Yes refers to: Before 2026 | 67.0% | 55.7% | Med | $7,728.57 | Refresh |
| Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $12,109.19 | Refresh |
| Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 36.0% | 43.7% | Med | $13,764.15 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Yes refers to: Yes | 91.0% | 93.8% | Med | $38,912.15 | Refresh |
| Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day? Yes refers to: Before August 2026 | 74.0% | 79.7% | Med | $58,926.74 | Refresh |
| Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users? Yes refers to: Before 2026 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | $62,637.83 | Refresh |
| Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Top outcome: Thom Tillis | 79.0% | 72.4% | Med | $30,147.32 | Refresh |
| How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 15.3% | High | $92,101.92 | Refresh |
| What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: Turkey | 75.0% | 79.3% | Med | $571,579.72 | Refresh |
| Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | $90,030.64 | Refresh |
| Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Top outcome: Iran | 4.0% | 1.4% | Med | $66,072.14 | Refresh |
| Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | $62,017.63 | Refresh |
| Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | $77,341.38 | Refresh |
| Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 15.0% | 8.7% | High | $759,024.34 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 9.8% | Med | $1,249,003.47 | Refresh |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 26.0% | 15.4% | High | $375,789.9 | Refresh |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 52.0% | 30.6% | Med | $277,366.09 | Refresh |
| Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Med | $119,526.66 | Refresh |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Top outcome: Saudi Arabia | 19.0% | 7.7% | Med | $267,646.23 | Refresh |
| How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Below 36% | 58.0% | 59.1% | High | $189,454.94 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 91.8% | 94.8% | Med | $22,101.7 | Refresh |
| Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 34.0% | 20.6% | Med | $1,570 | Refresh |
| Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 31.0% | 31.0% | Med | $468.38 | Refresh |
| Will Trump make IVF free? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 6.6% | Med | $34,509.74 | Refresh |
| Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 17.2% | Med | $548.45 | Refresh |
| Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes
| 17.0% | 13.5% | Med | $7,688.02 | Refresh |
| Will Trump declare an election emergency? Top outcome: Before Nov 4, 2026 | 25.0% | 9.3% | High | $33,192.06 | Refresh |
| Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 9.0% | 8.4% | Med | $8,744.01 | Refresh |
| Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $1,958.96 | Refresh |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Top outcome: Mandatory body-worn cameras | 9.9% | 6.0% | Med | $44,125.96 | Refresh |
| Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? Top outcome: Reserve President Rejected | 9.0% | 3.6% | Med | $17,366.72 | Refresh |
| Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 55.0% | 53.4% | High | $10,030.29 | Refresh |
| Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 16.0% | 12.2% | Med | $18,727.05 | Refresh |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 12.1% | Med | $37,418.65 | Refresh |
| Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | $9,540.74 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 9.0% | 7.8% | Med | $29,179.21 | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 1.0% | 0.7% | Med | $9,750 | Refresh |
| When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 85.0% | 85.1% | High | $11,719.43 | Refresh |
| Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | $292,187.31 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 22.0% | 17.0% | Med | $450,741.14 | Refresh |
| Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 5.1% | Med | $10,269.04 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 77.2% | 67.7% | Med | $106,452.91 | Refresh |
| Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 68.0% | 76.4% | Med | $316,011.59 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani tax luxury second homes? Yes refers to: Yes | 91.0% | 92.2% | Med | $5,226.88 | Refresh |
| Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 65.0% | 34.3% | High | $19,967.3 | Refresh |
| Will Pete Hegseth announce his departure as Secretary of Defense? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 31.0% | 23.9% | High | $22,483.05 | Refresh |
| Will Howard Lutnick announce his departure as Commerce Secretary? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 25.0% | 24.7% | High | $16,914.66 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell | 15.0% | 7.5% | Med | $198,913.22 | Refresh |
| When will a Trump passport be issued? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 73.0% | 73.4% | High | $6,407.98 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Barron Trump | 40.0% | 27.0% | Med | $286,657.68 | Refresh |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0% | Med | $885,303.16 | Refresh |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? Top outcome: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 11.0% | 3.6% | Med | $223,403.72 | Refresh |
| Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 21.0% | 30.0% | Med | $109,873.78 | Refresh |
| Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.8% | 2.6% | Med | $37,777.71 | Refresh |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 28.0% | 21.6% | High | $293,447.23 | Refresh |
| Will Kash Patel announce his departure as FBI Director? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 42.0% | 34.8% | High | $186,539.17 | Refresh |
| When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Top outcome: Before Aug 8, 2026 | 38.0% | 17.5% | High | $49,454.35 | Refresh |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Top outcome: Tim Walz | 17.0% | 8.1% | Med | $712,769.36 | Refresh |
| US bans social media for children in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 9.1% | 5.8% | Med | $15,544.81 | Refresh |
| Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | $12,655.08 | Refresh |
| Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 25.0% | 21.0% | Med | $32,740.93 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.2% | Med | $55,390.81 | Refresh |
| Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $1,887,226.31 | Refresh |
| How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Above 43% | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | $100,314.87 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani raise property taxes? Yes refers to: Yes | 19.0% | 13.4% | Med | $4,203.72 | Refresh |
| Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 10.0% | 10.0% | Med | $56,293.56 | Refresh |
| When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 0.0% | High | $31,622 | Refresh |
| Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Top outcome: Wind turbines | 49.0% | 40.0% | Med | $34,891.22 | Refresh |
| Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Top outcome: James Fishback | 9.9% | 4.0% | Med | $52,525.27 | Refresh |
| Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.3% | 5.6% | High | $420,547.72 | Refresh |
| Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | 42.9% | Med | $39,067.26 | Refresh |
| Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 5.0% | 3.7% | Med | $41,752.37 | Refresh |
| Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 42.0% | 30.9% | Med | $16,531.25 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Yes refers to: any 3rd Amendment case | 12.0% | 9.0% | Med | $6,525 | Refresh |
| Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 31.0% | 30.2% | High | $54,792.71 | Refresh |
| NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Top outcome: Decrease 0-0.99% | 48.0% | 38.0% | High | $56,174.67 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Yes refers to: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump | 42.0% | 49.9% | Med | $14,231.17 | Refresh |
| Will ICE change its name in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 31.0% | 21.8% | Med | $629.8 | Refresh |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned? Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 24.0% | 12.3% | High | $38,063.06 | Refresh |
| Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Yes refers to: By Jan 1, 2027 | 26.0% | 32.6% | Med | $36,710.6 | Refresh |
| When will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 60.0% | 50.2% | High | $1,173.65 | Refresh |
| Will the nickel be discontinued? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.7% | 5.4% | Med | $639.04 | Refresh |
| Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Top outcome: Donald Trump | 74.0% | 52.6% | Med | $11,868.06 | Refresh |
| Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 27.0% | 22.5% | Med | $122,991.83 | Refresh |
| Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Top outcome: Japan | 11.0% | 4.6% | Med | $85,742.2 | Refresh |
| Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $6,841.31 | Refresh |
| Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027 | 17.0% | 6.1% | High | $46,810 | Refresh |
| How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 64.0% | 64.3% | High | $107,844.7 | Refresh |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard announce her departure as Director of National Intelligence? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 54.0% | 55.4% | Med | $30,335.01 | Refresh |
| Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | $12,066.89 | Refresh |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0% | Med | $99,583.85 | Refresh |
| Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 23.0% | 13.5% | High | $15,899.58 | Refresh |
| Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 8.7% | High | $79,685.65 | Refresh |
| Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.3% | 3.6% | High | $54,735.91 | Refresh |
| When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 11.0% | 6.4% | High | $38,687.95 | Refresh |
| When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 46.0% | 36.2% | High | $8,476.21 | Refresh |
| Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 14.0% | 9.9% | High | $126,382.55 | Refresh |
| Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 23.0% | 25.8% | High | $923,936.7 | Refresh |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 61.8% | Med | $1,045.61 | Refresh |
| Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Yes refers to: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 38.0% | 36.6% | High | $254,936.64 | Refresh |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026? Top outcome: Cuba | 40.0% | 18.6% | Med | $58,874.18 | Refresh |
| Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Top outcome: Nicolás Maduro | 13.0% | 5.7% | Med | $336,510.4 | Refresh |
| Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 5.5% | Med | $22,818.51 | Refresh |
| 1.6% | 2.9% | High | $51,521.68 | Refresh | |
| Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 24.0% | 30.3% | Med | $20,270.04 | Refresh |
| Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 30.0% | 30.0% | Med | $517,032.68 | Refresh |
| Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 12.1% | Med | $299,710.69 | Refresh |
| Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Top outcome: Portland | 21.0% | 13.3% | Med | $66,782.43 | Refresh |
| Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 16.2% | High | $706,222.22 | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Top outcome: No other person | 52.0% | 28.6% | High | $25,193.42 | Refresh |
| Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell | 19.0% | 6.5% | Med | $85,653.6 | Refresh |
| When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 78.0% | 61.8% | High | $158,108.13 | Refresh |
| Who will be arrested before 2027? Top outcome: James Comey | 75.0% | 67.3% | Med | $1,697,030.31 | Refresh |
| Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? Yes refers to: Before August 2026 | 7.9% | 10.6% | Med | $499,094.81 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 13.1% | Med | $27,025.84 | Refresh |
| Who will visit the White House in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 50.0% | 37.4% | Med | $180,468.54 | Refresh |
| Will the filibuster be weakened? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 13.9% | High | $32,566.83 | Refresh |
| Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.4% | 4.7% | Med | $17,552.18 | Refresh |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Top outcome: Nancy Pelosi | 4.0% | 15.1% | Med | $8,017 | Refresh |
| Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 21.0% | 19.5% | Med | $1,488 | Refresh |
| Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $11,785.62 | Refresh |
| What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Top outcome: United Nations | 43.0% | 22.3% | Med | $16,430.71 | Refresh |
| Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 13.0% | 6.1% | Med | $9,303.05 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Top outcome: Amul Thapar | 9.0% | 7.8% | High | $306,260.87 | Refresh |
| Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Yes refers to: Ending Jun 4, 2029 | 90.1% | 91.4% | Med | $12,659 | Refresh |
| EU has a new member before 2030? Yes refers to: Any country | 72.0% | 61.4% | Med | $6,654.8 | Refresh |
| Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | $7,037.29 | Refresh |
| Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer | 53.0% | 44.4% | Med | $35,601.87 | Refresh |
| Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? Yes refers to: Between 2025 and 2035? | 19.0% | 23.0% | Med | $800 | Refresh |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi | 15.0% | 12.6% | High | $9,487 | Refresh |
| Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 51.0% | Med | $5,239 | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 7.0% | 6.4% | Med | $105,682 | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche | 64.0% | 22.0% | High | $602,678 | Refresh |
| How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | $26,513 | Refresh |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas | 50.0% | 27.0% | Med | $51,480 | Refresh |
| Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | $53,434 | Refresh |
| Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | 15.3% | High | $98,074 | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 12.0% | 7.8% | Med | $109,977 | Refresh |
| Will Trump resign during his term? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 24.0% | 16.3% | Med | $166,509 | Refresh |
| Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $591,333 | Refresh |
| What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland | 2.3% | 18.7% | High | $594,741 | Refresh |
| How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition | 78.0% | 94.4% | High | $1,023,227 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (81)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Ballroom security funding
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 69.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 72.0% 54.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 82.0% 67.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 88.0% 89.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 99.1% 99.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Judy Shelton
Market Model 0.3% 2.0%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 99.5% 95.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least 90 days
Market Model 34.0% 19.3%
At least 75 days
Market Model 99.9% 100.0%
9,000 to 9,999
Market Model 23.0% 18.6%
12,000 to 13,000
Market Model 22.0% 17.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Rand Paul
Market Model 69.0% 59.7%
John Fetterman
Market Model 98.0% 97.4%
6
Market Model 8.0% 10.4%
3
Market Model 58.0% 46.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least 30 days
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
At least 90 days
Market Model 75.0% 75.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 92.6% 77.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 99.0% 98.8%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 8.4%
Tulsi Gabbard
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Market Model 60.0% 44.7%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Low | $0 | ||
| — | — | Med | $10,799.27 | ||
| — | — | High | $6,370.11 | ||
| — | — | High | $30,752.92 | ||
| — | — | High | $19,515.06 | ||
| — | — | Med | $623,489.85 | ||
| When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $26,616.62 | |
| — | — | Med | $13,215.98 | ||
| — | — | Med | $9,420.5 | ||
| — | — | High | $46,254.1 | ||
| — | — | High | $38,384.01 | ||
| — | — | Med | $18,288.73 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,049,828.71 | ||
| What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Ballroom security funding | 2.0% | 0.7% | Med | $40,903.21 | |
| — | — | High | $1,365,157.04 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,348.13 | ||
| Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 16.2% | Med | $1,209,226.19 | |
| — | — | High | $11,568.67 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,336.02 | ||
| Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal? Yes refers to: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 72.0% | 69.1% | High | $66,572.21 | |
| — | — | High | $4,123.67 | ||
| — | — | Med | $149,552.25 | ||
| — | — | High | $56,043.27 | ||
| Marty Makary out as FDA commissioner? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 72.0% | 54.2% | High | $13,948.99 | |
| — | — | Med | $21,305.76 | ||
| — | — | Med | $52,956.39 | ||
| — | — | High | $19,815.53 | ||
| — | — | High | $29,166.84 | ||
| — | — | Med | $450,812.3 | ||
| Will the DNC release the 2024 autopsy report? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 30.0% | 15.7% | High | $42,627.15 | |
| — | — | High | $616,936.11 | ||
| Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 88.0% | 89.6% | Med | $182,518.35 | |
| — | — | High | $89,207.37 | ||
| When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes refers to: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 99.1% | 99.1% | High | $2,711,534.57 | |
| — | — | High | $127,193.33 | ||
| — | — | Med | $94,748.56 | ||
| — | — | High | $56,372.13 | ||
| — | — | High | $776,058.91 | ||
| Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 0.3% | 2.0% | High | $6,881,888.2 | |
| — | — | High | $43,227.01 | ||
| — | — | High | $110,971.27 | ||
| How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 90 days | 34.0% | 19.3% | High | $19,826,631.06 | |
| How many border encounters in Apr 2026? Top outcome: 9,000 to 9,999 | 23.0% | 18.6% | Med | $2,544.96 | |
| — | — | Med | $145,217.42 | ||
| — | — | Med | $31,569.2 | ||
| — | — | High | $19,188.48 | ||
| — | — | Med | $13,988.43 | ||
| — | — | High | $16,164.99 | ||
| — | — | Med | $26,276.57 | ||
| — | — | Med | $3,680.86 | ||
| — | — | Med | $19,082.09 | ||
| — | — | High | $13,715.47 | ||
| — | — | Med | $6,240.69 | ||
| — | — | Med | $544,271.76 | ||
| — | — | Med | $51,053.08 | ||
| — | — | High | $27,903.91 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,298.17 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,346.82 | ||
| — | — | High | $72,283.73 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,861.94 | ||
| Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Top outcome: Rand Paul | 69.0% | 59.7% | Med | $127,505.74 | |
| 8.0% | 10.4% | High | $45,065.47 | ||
| — | — | Med | $27,221.35 | ||
| — | — | Med | $119,865.15 | ||
| — | — | High | $25,729.26 | ||
| — | — | High | $72,912.66 | ||
| — | — | Med | $13,585.92 | ||
| — | — | Med | $105,200.56 | ||
| — | — | Med | $245,669.08 | ||
| — | — | High | $31,967.64 | ||
| — | — | Med | $81,678.33 | ||
| How long will the next FISA authorization be? Top outcome: At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | High | $41,980.89 | |
| — | — | High | $966,005.47 | ||
| — | — | Med | $302,456.41 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,637,041.71 | ||
| When will DHS be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 92.6% | 77.0% | High | $14,355,230.22 | |
| — | — | Med | $96,233.28 | ||
| When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General? Yes refers to: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 98.8% | High | $4,405,941 | |
| Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 12.0% | 8.4% | Med | $40,327 | |
| Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard | 16.0% | 13.4% | High | $1,754,507 | |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 |
