Politics Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (180)

When will CISA announce the addition of CVE-2026-109618 to the KEV catalog? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 66.0% 44.0%

Before Nov 15, 2026

Market Model 24.0% 50.4%

2.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump abolish the Department of Education? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 10.6%

164.8K contracts Refresh

Which states will Trump visit in Oct 2026? Kalshi

New Hampshire

Market Model 5.0% 1.6%

Pennsylvania

Market Model 25.0% 17.4%

39.7K contracts Refresh

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Oct 2026? Kalshi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Market Model 36.0% 18.1%

Xi Jinping

Market Model 8.0% 2.5%

60.0K contracts Refresh

When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 31.0% 16.3%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 84.0% 70.4%

4.2K contracts Refresh

Will France declare a state of emergency? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 16.0% 11.4%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 26.0% 17.6%

15.9K contracts Refresh

Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 18.0% 23.2%

10.0K contracts Refresh

When will Katie Zacharia deliver her next White House briefing? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 2.0% 1.0%

121.5K contracts Refresh

When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 6.0% 3.5%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 24.0% 14.1%

17.9K contracts Refresh

How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? Kalshi

Exactly 1

Market Model 87.0% 86.1%

Exactly 2

Market Model 8.5% 7.4%

7.3K contracts Refresh

When will Trump rename something else? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 31.0% 25.3%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 62.0% 53.5%

3.3K contracts Refresh

Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 29.0% 20.8%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 28.0% 20.1%

84.9K contracts Refresh

When will Serbia call its presidential election? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 40.0% 29.8%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 93.0% 90.6%

15.7K contracts Refresh

Will marijuana be rescheduled? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 67.0% 54.2%

985.2K contracts Refresh

Number of White House Press Briefings in Oct 2026? Kalshi

At least 5

Market Model 1.0% 0.5%

At least 3

Market Model 45.0% 20.5%

23.7K contracts Refresh

Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 94.4% 96.5%

8.5K contracts Refresh

Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 98.0% 97.7%

7.8K contracts Refresh

Will NYC add a new 3 Michelin Star restaurant in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 22.0% 22.0%

5.1K contracts Refresh

When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia? Kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 12.0% 6.9%

Before Mar 1, 2027

Market Model 84.0% 73.7%

2.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 20.0% 28.8%

1.9K contracts Refresh

When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 24.0% 12.3%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 27.0% 16.0%

4.7K contracts Refresh

Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 84.0% 70.4%

7.5K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 15.0%

$65.6M Refresh

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 13.3%

4.2K contracts Refresh

AfD in a German state government in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 40.0% 45.9%

1.2K contracts Refresh

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 11.0% 5.5%

October 31

Market Model 2.5% 1.2%

$17.0M Refresh

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

October 31

Market Model 2.0% 1.0%

$17.9M Refresh

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 4.0% 2.7%

$21.8M Refresh

Putin out as President of Russia by...? Polymarket

December 31, 2026

Market Model 6.0% 4.0%

June 30, 2027

Market Model 16.0% 10.7%

$22.3M Refresh

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 64.0% 55.0%

October 31

Market Model 41.0% 28.6%

$24.1M Refresh

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 16.0% 14.2%

December 31

Market Model 14.0% 14.2%

$24.5M Refresh

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 7.0%

$25.4M Refresh

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei

Market Model 82.1% 80.2%

Mohammad Khatami

Market Model 0.2% 0.5%

$39.0M Refresh

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Polymarket

Benjamin Netanyahu

Market Model 30.0% 24.2%

Naftali Bennett

Market Model 7.0% 7.7%

$34.3M Refresh

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 3.6% 2.6%

$35.4M Refresh

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 3.8% 3.8%

$40.5M Refresh

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 3.7% 1.7%

September 30

Market Model 0.0% 0.3%

$66.1M Refresh

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 8.0% 4.6%

$72.5M Refresh

Venezuela leader end of 2026? Polymarket

Richard Grenell

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

Frank Donovan

Market Model 0.2% 0.2%

$95.9M Refresh

Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 48.0% 40.1%

$124.1M Refresh

Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? Kalshi

On Dec 10, 2026

Market Model 76.0% 53.3%

On Nov 13, 2026

Market Model 57.0% 53.3%

13.5K contracts Refresh

Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027? Kalshi

Above 350 days

Market Model 83.0% 69.0%

Above 275 days

Market Model 0.0% 78.0%

206 contracts Refresh

Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 6.0% 2.1%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 0.0% 3.1%

77 contracts Refresh

Will the ABA lose its law school accreditation power? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 64.0% 73.0%

3.1K contracts Refresh

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 83.0% 76.6%

2.6K contracts Refresh

When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 5.1% 2.5%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 21.0% 20.2%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 6.4%

1.8M contracts Refresh

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 5.4% 3.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 16.0% 10.7%

10.7M contracts Refresh

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 60.0% 56.7%

$7.3M Refresh

Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 5.0% 1.7%

$2.5M Refresh

Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 5.2%

$10.5M Refresh

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 4.2% 4.2%

$11.7M Refresh

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 4.0% 4.5%

$29.0M Refresh

US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 30.0% 26.1%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 23.0% 20.2%

15.5M contracts Refresh

Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 49.0% 36.9%

Before Oct 1, 2027

Market Model 67.0% 52.5%

2.5M contracts Refresh

Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi

Xi Jinping

Market Model 3.0% 1.0%

Miguel Díaz-Canel

Market Model 60.0% 48.8%

3.4M contracts Refresh

Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 10.8%

2.3M contracts Refresh

Will Trump be impeached? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 4.1% 2.8%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 58.0% 43.3%

3.6M contracts Refresh

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 5.0%

2.9M contracts Refresh

Will the SAVE Act become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.9% 6.9%

5.7M contracts Refresh

Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Kalshi

Before January 21, 2029

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

Before 2027

Market Model 8.5% 4.2%

3.2M contracts Refresh

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi

Kash Patel

Market Model 61.0% 50.0%

Pete Hegseth

Market Model 28.0% 16.7%

3.9M contracts Refresh

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Kalshi

Before January 20, 2029

Market Model 22.0% 11.2%

Before 2027

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

7.2M contracts Refresh

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 70.0% 51.8%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 84.0% 70.4%

19.9M contracts Refresh

Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.2% 5.3%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Will Congressional salaries increase? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 17.0% 17.2%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 34.0% 32.9%

27 contracts Refresh

Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

12.1K contracts Refresh

Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 36.0% 43.7%

13.8K contracts Refresh

How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Kalshi

Market Model 12.0% 15.3%

Market Model 16.0% 13.2%

92.1K contracts Refresh

What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Kalshi

Turkey

Market Model 75.0% 79.3%

Taiwan

Market Model 8.5% 3.3%

571.6K contracts Refresh

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 9.0%

90.0K contracts Refresh

Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Kalshi

Iran

Market Model 4.0% 1.4%

Syria

Market Model 12.0% 5.1%

66.1K contracts Refresh

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 43.0% 31.8%

62.0K contracts Refresh

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 9.0%

77.3K contracts Refresh

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 49.0% 31.6%

Before Jan 31, 2028

Market Model 98.0% 95.7%

759.0K contracts Refresh

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 9.8%

1.2M contracts Refresh

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 26.0% 15.4%

375.8K contracts Refresh

Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 52.0% 30.6%

Before 2027

Market Model 27.0% 14.0%

277.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 20.0% 13.4%

119.5K contracts Refresh

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Kalshi

Saudi Arabia

Market Model 19.0% 7.7%

Lebanon

Market Model 14.0% 6.3%

267.6K contracts Refresh

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Kalshi

Below 36%

Market Model 58.0% 59.1%

Below 35%

Market Model 48.0% 49.8%

189.5K contracts Refresh

Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 46.0% 29.2%

1.6K contracts Refresh

Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 31.0% 31.0%

468 contracts Refresh

Will Trump make IVF free? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 6.6%

34.5K contracts Refresh

Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 17.2%

548 contracts Refresh

Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 13.5%

7.7K contracts Refresh

Will Trump declare an election emergency? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 25.0% 9.3%

33.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 8.4%

8.7K contracts Refresh

Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

2.0K contracts Refresh

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Kalshi

Mandatory body-worn cameras

Market Model 9.9% 6.0%

Visible identification

Market Model 9.0% 3.6%

44.1K contracts Refresh

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? Kalshi

Reserve President Rejected

Market Model 9.0% 3.6%

Presser Skipped

Market Model 55.0% 43.0%

17.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 12.2%

18.7K contracts Refresh

Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 12.1%

37.4K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 7.8%

29.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 1.0% 0.7%

9.8K contracts Refresh

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 12.0% 4.2%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 36.0% 14.3%

292.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 22.0% 17.0%

450.7K contracts Refresh

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 5.1%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 68.0% 76.4%

316.0K contracts Refresh

Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement? Kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Market Model 65.0% 34.3%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 56.0% 26.3%

20.0K contracts Refresh

Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Kalshi

Ghislaine Maxwell

Market Model 15.0% 7.5%

Derek Chauvin

Market Model 6.1% 2.3%

198.9K contracts Refresh

Who will Trump pardon? Kalshi

Barron Trump

Market Model 40.0% 27.0%

Donald Trump

Market Model 56.0% 44.1%

286.7K contracts Refresh

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 12.0%

885.3K contracts Refresh

Which bills will become law in 2026? Kalshi

FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)

Market Model 11.0% 3.6%

SHOWER Act

Market Model 23.0% 12.2%

223.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 30.0%

109.9K contracts Refresh

Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.8% 2.6%

37.8K contracts Refresh

When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 44.0% 22.5%

49.5K contracts Refresh

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Kalshi

Tim Walz

Market Model 17.0% 8.1%

Ilhan Omar

Market Model 49.0% 36.3%

712.8K contracts Refresh

US bans social media for children in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.1% 5.8%

15.5K contracts Refresh

Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 8.0%

12.7K contracts Refresh

Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 25.0% 21.0%

32.7K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 10.2%

55.4K contracts Refresh

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 6.5%

1.9M contracts Refresh

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Kalshi

Above 43%

Market Model 28.0% 16.6%

Above 44%

Market Model 23.0% 13.5%

100.3K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani raise property taxes? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 19.0% 13.4%

4.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 10.0%

56.3K contracts Refresh

Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Kalshi

Wind turbines

Market Model 49.0% 40.0%

Canadian aircraft

Market Model 18.0% 8.8%

34.9K contracts Refresh

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Kalshi

James Fishback

Market Model 9.9% 4.0%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Market Model 24.0% 13.0%

52.5K contracts Refresh

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.3% 5.6%

420.5K contracts Refresh

Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.0% 3.7%

41.8K contracts Refresh

Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 42.0% 30.9%

16.5K contracts Refresh

Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 9.0%

6.5K contracts Refresh

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 31.0% 30.2%

Before 2028

Market Model 47.0% 44.8%

54.8K contracts Refresh

NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Kalshi

Decrease 0-0.99%

Market Model 48.0% 38.0%

Increase 0.01-0.99%

Market Model 40.0% 20.0%

56.2K contracts Refresh

Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 42.0% 49.9%

14.2K contracts Refresh

Will ICE change its name in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 31.0% 21.8%

630 contracts Refresh

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 24.0% 12.3%

38.1K contracts Refresh

Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 26.0% 32.6%

36.7K contracts Refresh

Will the nickel be discontinued? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 4.7% 5.4%

639 contracts Refresh

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Kalshi

Donald Trump

Market Model 74.0% 52.6%

Bill Clinton

Market Model 80.0% 73.7%

11.9K contracts Refresh

Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 27.0% 22.5%

123.0K contracts Refresh

Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Kalshi

Japan

Market Model 11.0% 4.6%

Italy

Market Model 9.9% 2.3%

85.7K contracts Refresh

Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

6.8K contracts Refresh

Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 6.1%

46.8K contracts Refresh

How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Kalshi

Market Model 64.0% 64.3%

Market Model 20.0% 10.2%

107.8K contracts Refresh

Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 49.0% 49.0%

12.1K contracts Refresh

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 14.0%

99.6K contracts Refresh

Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 50.0% 32.4%

15.9K contracts Refresh

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 13.0% 8.7%

Before Jan 21, 2029

Market Model 59.0% 44.2%

79.7K contracts Refresh

Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.3% 3.6%

54.7K contracts Refresh

When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Kalshi

Before 2028

Market Model 11.0% 6.4%

Before 2029

Market Model 40.0% 24.7%

38.7K contracts Refresh

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 25.0% 25.8%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 59.0% 51.6%

923.9K contracts Refresh

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 52.0% 61.8%

1.0K contracts Refresh

What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026? Kalshi

Cuba

Market Model 40.0% 18.6%

Russia

Market Model 21.0% 7.0%

58.9K contracts Refresh

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Kalshi

Nicolás Maduro

Market Model 13.0% 5.7%

Xi Jinping

Market Model 93.8% 91.8%

336.5K contracts Refresh

Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.0% 5.5%

22.8K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 24.0% 30.3%

20.3K contracts Refresh

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 30.0% 30.0%

517.0K contracts Refresh

Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 12.1%

299.7K contracts Refresh

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Kalshi

Portland

Market Model 21.0% 13.3%

San Francisco

Market Model 24.0% 13.0%

66.8K contracts Refresh

Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 16.2%

706.2K contracts Refresh

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Kalshi

No other person

Market Model 52.0% 28.6%

Ron DeSantis

Market Model 16.0% 11.1%

25.2K contracts Refresh

Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Kalshi

Ghislaine Maxwell

Market Model 19.0% 6.5%

Mark Zuckerberg

Market Model 40.0% 27.0%

85.7K contracts Refresh

Who will be arrested before 2027? Kalshi

James Comey

Market Model 75.0% 67.3%

Barack Obama

Market Model 11.0% 4.6%

1.7M contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 13.1%

27.0K contracts Refresh

Who will visit the White House in 2026? Kalshi

Xi Jinping

Market Model 50.0% 37.4%

Reza Pahlavi

Market Model 24.0% 13.0%

180.5K contracts Refresh

Will the filibuster be weakened? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 18.0% 13.9%

Before January 20, 2029

Market Model 35.0% 27.1%

32.6K contracts Refresh

Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.4% 4.7%

17.6K contracts Refresh

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Kalshi

Nancy Pelosi

Market Model 4.0% 15.1%

Larry Bucshon

Market Model 5.0% 12.6%

8.0K contracts Refresh

Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 19.5%

1.5K contracts Refresh

Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

11.8K contracts Refresh

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Kalshi

United Nations

Market Model 43.0% 22.3%

World Trade Organization

Market Model 45.0% 22.6%

16.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 6.1%

9.3K contracts Refresh

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Kalshi

Amul Thapar

Market Model 9.0% 7.8%

Aileen Cannon

Market Model 12.0% 8.9%

306.3K contracts Refresh

Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 90.1% 91.4%

12.7K contracts Refresh

EU has a new member before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 72.0% 61.4%

6.7K contracts Refresh

Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 40.0% 40.0%

7.0K contracts Refresh

Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 19.0% 23.0%

800 contracts Refresh

Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Kalshi

Félix Tshisekedi

Market Model 15.0% 12.6%

Paul Kagame

Market Model 5.0% 4.1%

9.5K contracts Refresh

Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 43.0% 51.0%

5.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 6.4%

105.7K contracts Refresh

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Kalshi

Below 300

Market Model 11.0% 5.5%

Above 800

Market Model 21.0% 17.6%

26.5K contracts Refresh

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Kalshi

Clarence Thomas

Market Model 50.0% 27.0%

Samuel Alito

Market Model 70.0% 49.1%

51.5K contracts Refresh

Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 9.2%

53.4K contracts Refresh

Will Congress override Trump's veto? Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 38.0% 15.3%

Before 2027

Market Model 12.0% 4.2%

98.1K contracts Refresh

Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 7.8%

110.0K contracts Refresh

Will Trump resign during his term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 24.0% 16.3%

166.5K contracts Refresh

Will the US acquire any new territory? Kalshi

Before Jan 2027

Market Model 13.0% 6.5%

Before Jan 2028

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

591.3K contracts Refresh

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Kalshi

Greenland

Market Model 2.3% 18.7%

Venezuela

Market Model 1.8% 6.3%

594.7K contracts Refresh

How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Kalshi

$0 / No Acquisition

Market Model 78.0% 94.4%

$600 billion to $899 billion

Market Model 6.0% 0.2%

1.0M contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will CISA announce the addition of CVE-2026-109618 to the KEV catalog? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	66.0%	44.0%	High	—	Refresh
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029	14.0%	10.6%	Med	71	Refresh
Which states will Trump visit in Oct 2026? Top outcome: New Hampshire	5.0%	1.6%	Med	67	Refresh
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Volodymyr Zelenskyy	36.0%	18.1%	Med	74	Refresh
When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	31.0%	16.3%	High	71	Refresh
Will France declare a state of emergency? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	16.0%	11.4%	High	72	Refresh
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France? Yes refers to: Yes	18.0%	23.2%	Med	61	Refresh
When will Katie Zacharia deliver her next White House briefing? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026	2.0%	1.0%	High	68	Refresh
When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	6.0%	3.5%	High	75	Refresh
How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 1	87.0%	86.1%	High	65	Refresh
When will Trump rename something else? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	31.0%	25.3%	High	79	Refresh
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029	29.0%	20.8%	High	78	Refresh
When will Serbia call its presidential election? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	40.0%	29.8%	High	90	Refresh
Will marijuana be rescheduled? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	7.0%	3.5%	High	74	Refresh
Number of White House Press Briefings in Oct 2026? Top outcome: At least 5	1.0%	0.5%	High	71	Refresh
Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate? Yes refers to: Before 2028	94.4%	96.5%	Med	73	Refresh
Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	98.0%	97.7%	High	66	Refresh
Will NYC add a new 3 Michelin Star restaurant in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026	22.0%	22.0%	Med	81	Refresh
When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia? Top outcome: Before Dec 1, 2026	12.0%	6.9%	High	58	Refresh
Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? Yes refers to: Yes	20.0%	28.8%	Med	75	Refresh
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	24.0%	12.3%	High	66	Refresh
Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii? Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026	84.0%	70.4%	High	32	Refresh
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	15.0%	Med	55	Refresh
Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	10.0%	13.3%	Med	68	Refresh
AfD in a German state government in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	40.0%	45.9%	Med	76	Refresh
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31	11.0%	5.5%	High	69	Refresh
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31	7.0%	3.5%	High	62	Refresh
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31	4.0%	2.7%	High	68	Refresh
Putin out as President of Russia by...? Top outcome: December 31, 2026	6.0%	4.0%	High	40	Refresh
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Top outcome: December 31	64.0%	55.0%	High	59	Refresh
Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31	16.0%	14.2%	High	70	Refresh
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	7.0%	7.0%	Med	53	Refresh
Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei	82.1%	80.2%	High	57	Refresh
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu	30.0%	24.2%	High	68	Refresh
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	3.6%	2.6%	Med	57	Refresh
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	3.8%	3.8%	Med	57	Refresh
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Top outcome: December 31	3.7%	1.7%	High	56	Refresh
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31	8.0%	4.6%	High	65	Refresh
Venezuela leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Richard Grenell	0.1%	0.1%	High	55	Refresh
Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31	48.0%	40.1%	Med	40	Refresh
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? Top outcome: On Dec 10, 2026	76.0%	53.3%	High	61	Refresh
Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027? Top outcome: Above 350 days	83.0%	69.0%	High	67	Refresh
Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	6.0%	2.1%	High	67	Refresh
Will the ABA lose its law school accreditation power? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	64.0%	73.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	83.0%	76.6%	Med	66	Refresh
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	5.1%	2.5%	High	30	Refresh
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026	10.0%	6.4%	Med	40	Refresh
Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Top outcome: Before 2027	5.4%	3.6%	High	60	Refresh
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes	60.0%	56.7%	Med	67	Refresh
Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026	5.0%	1.7%	High	51	Refresh
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	7.0%	5.2%	Med	40	Refresh
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	4.2%	4.2%	Med	54	Refresh
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Yes refers to: December 31	4.0%	4.5%	High	56	Refresh
US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	30.0%	26.1%	High	74	Refresh
Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	49.0%	36.9%	High	77	Refresh
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping	3.0%	1.0%	Med	40	Refresh
Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	14.0%	10.8%	High	71	Refresh
Will Trump be impeached? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	4.1%	2.8%	High	80	Refresh
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Yes refers to: Before 2027	10.0%	5.0%	High	30	Refresh
Will the SAVE Act become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027	8.9%	6.9%	Med	79	Refresh
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029	30.0%	15.7%	High	66	Refresh
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Top outcome: Kash Patel	61.0%	50.0%	Med	44	Refresh
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 20, 2029	22.0%	11.2%	High	75	Refresh
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	70.0%	51.8%	High	80	Refresh
Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	9.2%	5.3%	High	78	Refresh
Will Congressional salaries increase? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	17.0%	17.2%	High	60	Refresh
Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	54	Refresh
Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? Yes refers to: Before 2029	36.0%	43.7%	Med	77	Refresh
How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Top outcome: 0	12.0%	15.3%	High	75	Refresh
What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: Turkey	75.0%	79.3%	Med	74	Refresh
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars	9.0%	9.0%	Med	72	Refresh
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Top outcome: Iran	4.0%	1.4%	Med	68	Refresh
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Yes refers to: Before 2029	43.0%	31.8%	Med	71	Refresh
Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	9.0%	9.0%	Med	74	Refresh
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	49.0%	31.6%	High	78	Refresh
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	14.0%	9.8%	Med	79	Refresh
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027	26.0%	15.4%	High	76	Refresh
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029	52.0%	30.6%	Med	76	Refresh
Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Yes refers to: Before 2029	20.0%	13.4%	Med	72	Refresh
Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Top outcome: Saudi Arabia	19.0%	7.7%	Med	70	Refresh
How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Below 36%	58.0%	59.1%	High	79	Refresh
Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026	46.0%	29.2%	Med	77	Refresh
Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027	31.0%	31.0%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Trump make IVF free? Yes refers to: Before 2029	14.0%	6.6%	Med	72	Refresh
Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Yes refers to: Before 2027	15.0%	17.2%	Med	66	Refresh
Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	17.0%	13.5%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Trump declare an election emergency? Yes refers to: Before Nov 4, 2026	25.0%	9.3%	High	84	Refresh
Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027	9.0%	8.4%	Med	75	Refresh
Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	66	Refresh
Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Top outcome: Mandatory body-worn cameras	9.9%	6.0%	Med	70	Refresh
Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? Top outcome: Reserve President Rejected	9.0%	3.6%	Med	59	Refresh
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	16.0%	12.2%	Med	67	Refresh
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	12.1%	Med	78	Refresh
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	9.0%	7.8%	Med	78	Refresh
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	1.0%	0.7%	Med	66	Refresh
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	12.0%	4.2%	High	72	Refresh
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends	22.0%	17.0%	Med	78	Refresh
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Yes refers to: Before 2027	11.0%	5.1%	Med	72	Refresh
Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029	68.0%	76.4%	Med	81	Refresh
Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027	65.0%	34.3%	High	65	Refresh
Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell	15.0%	7.5%	Med	60	Refresh
Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Barron Trump	40.0%	27.0%	Med	60	Refresh
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027	12.0%	12.0%	Med	77	Refresh
Which bills will become law in 2026? Top outcome: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)	11.0%	3.6%	Med	67	Refresh
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	21.0%	30.0%	Med	73	Refresh
Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	5.8%	2.6%	Med	75	Refresh
When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026	44.0%	22.5%	High	68	Refresh
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Top outcome: Tim Walz	17.0%	8.1%	Med	60	Refresh
US bans social media for children in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	9.1%	5.8%	Med	67	Refresh
Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	16.0%	8.0%	High	63	Refresh
Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Yes refers to: Yes	25.0%	21.0%	Med	70	Refresh
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	13.0%	10.2%	Med	72	Refresh
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Yes refers to: Before 2027	13.0%	6.5%	High	78	Refresh
How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Above 43%	28.0%	16.6%	High	73	Refresh
Will Mamdani raise property taxes? Yes refers to: Yes	19.0%	13.4%	Med	75	Refresh
Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Yes refers to: Before 2027	10.0%	10.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Top outcome: Wind turbines	49.0%	40.0%	Med	77	Refresh
Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Top outcome: James Fishback	9.9%	4.0%	Med	74	Refresh
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Yes refers to: Before 2027	8.3%	5.6%	High	74	Refresh
Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027	5.0%	3.7%	Med	67	Refresh
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028	42.0%	30.9%	Med	67	Refresh
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Yes refers to: any 3rd Amendment case	12.0%	9.0%	Med	69	Refresh
Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Top outcome: Before 2027	31.0%	30.2%	High	69	Refresh
NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Top outcome: Decrease 0-0.99%	48.0%	38.0%	High	79	Refresh
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Yes refers to: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump	42.0%	49.9%	Med	73	Refresh
Will ICE change its name in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	31.0%	21.8%	Med	73	Refresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned? Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026	24.0%	12.3%	High	64	Refresh
Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Yes refers to: By Jan 1, 2027	26.0%	32.6%	Med	73	Refresh
Will the nickel be discontinued? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	4.7%	5.4%	Med	68	Refresh
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Top outcome: Donald Trump	74.0%	52.6%	Med	72	Refresh
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Yes refers to: Before 2029	27.0%	22.5%	Med	64	Refresh
Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Top outcome: Japan	11.0%	4.6%	Med	75	Refresh
Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	66	Refresh
Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027	17.0%	6.1%	High	74	Refresh
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Top outcome: 0	64.0%	64.3%	High	60	Refresh
Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	49.0%	49.0%	Med	70	Refresh
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Yes refers to: Before 2027	14.0%	14.0%	Med	70	Refresh
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	50.0%	32.4%	High	73	Refresh
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Top outcome: Before 2027	13.0%	8.7%	High	76	Refresh
Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	7.3%	3.6%	High	30	Refresh
When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Top outcome: Before 2028	11.0%	6.4%	High	75	Refresh
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Top outcome: Before 2027	25.0%	25.8%	High	76	Refresh
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	52.0%	61.8%	Med	68	Refresh
What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026? Top outcome: Cuba	40.0%	18.6%	Med	71	Refresh
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Top outcome: Nicolás Maduro	13.0%	5.7%	Med	76	Refresh
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Yes refers to: Before 2027	8.0%	5.5%	Med	73	Refresh
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	24.0%	30.3%	Med	69	Refresh
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	30.0%	30.0%	Med	76	Refresh
Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	12.1%	Med	76	Refresh
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Top outcome: Portland	21.0%	13.3%	Med	70	Refresh
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Yes refers to: Before 2027	21.0%	16.2%	High	76	Refresh
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Top outcome: No other person	52.0%	28.6%	High	60	Refresh
Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell	19.0%	6.5%	Med	69	Refresh
Who will be arrested before 2027? Top outcome: James Comey	75.0%	67.3%	Med	71	Refresh
Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	13.1%	Med	71	Refresh
Who will visit the White House in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping	50.0%	37.4%	Med	70	Refresh
Will the filibuster be weakened? Top outcome: Before 2027	18.0%	13.9%	High	70	Refresh
Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027	8.4%	4.7%	Med	76	Refresh
Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Top outcome: Nancy Pelosi	4.0%	15.1%	Med	72	Refresh
Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	21.0%	19.5%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	17.0%	17.0%	Med	74	Refresh
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Top outcome: United Nations	43.0%	22.3%	Med	71	Refresh
Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Yes refers to: Before 2029	13.0%	6.1%	Med	74	Refresh
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Top outcome: Amul Thapar	9.0%	7.8%	High	71	Refresh
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Yes refers to: Ending Jun 4, 2029	90.1%	91.4%	Med	76	Refresh
EU has a new member before 2030? Yes refers to: Any country	72.0%	61.4%	Med	68	Refresh
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	40.0%	40.0%	Med	77	Refresh
Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? Yes refers to: Between 2025 and 2035?	19.0%	23.0%	Med	71	Refresh
Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi	15.0%	12.6%	High	38	Refresh
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029	43.0%	51.0%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029	7.0%	6.4%	Med	75	Refresh
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300	11.0%	5.5%	High	70	Refresh
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas	50.0%	27.0%	Med	40	Refresh
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029	14.0%	9.2%	Med	74	Refresh
Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029	38.0%	15.3%	High	56	Refresh
Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029	12.0%	7.8%	Med	65	Refresh
Will Trump resign during his term? Yes refers to: Before his term ends	24.0%	16.3%	Med	40	Refresh
Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027	13.0%	6.5%	High	61	Refresh
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland	2.3%	18.7%	High	71	Refresh
How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition	78.0%	94.4%	High	30	Refresh

Expired Markets (149)

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 20, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.5K contracts

Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 98.0% 100.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

2.6M contracts

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/5-10/11) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.7K contracts

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 71.0% 60.2%

10.4K contracts

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/27 - 10/3) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.1K contracts

Which AI CEOs will Trump meet this month? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

74.8K contracts

Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 54.0% 63.4%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 72.0% 81.9%

41.7K contracts

Number of White House Press Briefings in Sep 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.3K contracts

When will Trump release more UFO files? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

47.4K contracts

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

96.9K contracts

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/13 - 9/19) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

39.7K contracts

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.0K contracts

Fed Decision in September? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$106.4M

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

41.7K contracts

Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

73.2K contracts

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.9K contracts

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/29-9/4) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.1K contracts

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$14.2M

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Polymarket

Donald Trump

Market Model 0.0% 13.6%

UNRWA

Market Model 0.0% 11.9%

$23.6M

Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$27.7M

Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 99.0% 99.9%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 99.0% 99.9%

9.1K contracts

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (8/30-9/5) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.1K contracts

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/23 - 8/29) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.9K contracts

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

29.6K contracts

Oklahoma Republican Labor Commissioner nominee? Kalshi

Kevin West

Market Model 79.0% 75.7%

John Pfeiffer

Market Model 21.0% 24.3%

1.9K contracts

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (8/16-8/22) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

236.0K contracts

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

25.4K contracts

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$337.0K

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$615.2K

Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

629.0K contracts

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 43.0% 23.9%

$767.4K

Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 4.2%

$1.8M

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$12.5M

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket

October 31

Market Model 77.0% 99.5%

December 31

Market Model 67.0% 99.5%

$20.8M

What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$194.3K

When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 35.0% 27.1%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 33.0% 20.7%

87.7K contracts

Will a court order a tariff refund? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Keir Starmer departure announced? Kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 99.0% 98.6%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 98.0% 97.3%

2.8M contracts

Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 8.6%

54.2K contracts

Kash Patel out as FBI Director? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.2M contracts

Trump-Zelenskyy bilateral at G7? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.8K contracts

When will the full text of the US-Iran MoU be officially released? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

6.4K contracts

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

30.8K contracts

Will Spencer Pratt concede? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.5K contracts

Who will attend Freedom 250? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

623.5K contracts

When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.6K contracts

Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.8M contracts

Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (6/7 - 6/13) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.2K contracts

Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.4K contracts

When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 99.5% 99.4%

141.1K contracts

Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

46.3K contracts

Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

38.4K contracts

Will Trump meet Mamdani before Jun 9, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

18.3K contracts

Will Trump attend a Pro Basketball finals game? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.0M contracts

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 89.0% 83.4%

528.1K contracts

Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.7K contracts

Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 91.0% 93.8%

38.9K contracts

Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

58.9K contracts

Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

62.6K contracts

What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi

Ballroom security funding

Market Model 2.0% 0.7%

Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years

Market Model 94.0% 92.1%

40.9K contracts

Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Kalshi

Thom Tillis

Market Model 79.0% 72.4%

Susan Collins

Market Model 82.0% 71.1%

30.1K contracts

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.4M contracts

Will Trump lower beef tariffs? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.3K contracts

Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 91.8% 94.8%

22.1K contracts

Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 16.2%

1.2M contracts

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.6K contracts

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/11 - 5/17) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.3K contracts

Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

66.6K contracts

Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 55.0% 53.4%

10.0K contracts

Who will make a public appearance in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.1K contracts

Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 49.0% 49.0%

9.5K contracts

Who will leave Congress before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

149.6K contracts

When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Kalshi

Before Jan 2027

Market Model 85.0% 85.1%

Before Dec 2026

Market Model 79.0% 79.2%

11.7K contracts

Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 77.2% 67.7%

106.5K contracts

When will JD Vance visit Pakistan? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

56.0K contracts

Marty Makary out as FDA commissioner? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 82.0% 67.4%

13.9K contracts

Will Mamdani tax luxury second homes? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 91.0% 92.2%

5.2K contracts

Will Pete Hegseth announce his departure as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.5K contracts

Will Howard Lutnick announce his departure as Commerce Secretary? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.9K contracts

Will Trump order more tariffs in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

21.3K contracts

When will a Trump passport be issued? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 89.0% 89.1%

6.4K contracts

Will Trump sue Powell before his term ends? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

53.0K contracts

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

293.4K contracts

Will Kash Patel announce his departure as FBI Director? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

186.5K contracts

Will Trump do anything this week? (5/3-5/9) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.8K contracts

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (5/3-5/9) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

29.2K contracts

Who will visit Iran before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

450.8K contracts

Will the DNC release the 2024 autopsy report? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 44.0% 24.6%

42.6K contracts

How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

616.9K contracts

Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 88.0% 89.6%

182.5K contracts

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

89.2K contracts

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.7M contracts

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/4 - 5/10) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

127.2K contracts

Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/3-5/9) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

94.7K contracts

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/3 - 5/9) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

56.4K contracts

When will Trump visit China? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

776.1K contracts

Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Kalshi

Judy Shelton

Market Model 0.3% 2.0%

Kevin Warsh

Market Model 99.5% 95.0%

6.9M contracts

Trump's approval rating on May 8, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

43.2K contracts

When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 3.0% 0.0%

31.6K contracts

Trump's approval rating on May 1, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

111.0K contracts

How long will the government shutdown last? Kalshi

At least 90 days

Market Model 34.0% 19.3%

At least 75 days

Market Model 99.9% 100.0%

19.8M contracts

How many border encounters in Apr 2026? Kalshi

9,000 to 9,999

Market Model 23.0% 18.6%

12,000 to 13,000

Market Model 22.0% 17.9%

2.5K contracts

Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

145.2K contracts

When will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 0.0% 50.2%

1.2K contracts

Who will Trump sue before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

31.6K contracts

Number of White House Press Briefings in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.2K contracts

Will Trump punish SpaceX? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.0K contracts

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.2K contracts

Will Tulsi Gabbard announce her departure as Director of National Intelligence? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

30.3K contracts

Will Pam Bondi testify in front of Congress in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.3K contracts

Will Trump do anything this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.7K contracts

Who will join the Trump administration before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.1K contracts

Major news story in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.7K contracts

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

6.2K contracts

When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 76.0% 66.6%

8.5K contracts

Who will visit Venezuela before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

544.3K contracts

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

51.1K contracts

How many Truths will Trump delete in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27.9K contracts

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

254.9K contracts

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.3K contracts

How many justices will vote for Trump in the FTC removal case? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

51.5K contracts

How many people will Trump pardon in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.3K contracts

When will the Supreme Court issue an opinion on the Voting Rights Act? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

72.3K contracts

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (4/27 - 5/3) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.9K contracts

When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

158.1K contracts

Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Kalshi

Rand Paul

Market Model 69.0% 59.7%

John Fetterman

Market Model 98.0% 97.4%

127.5K contracts

How many justices will vote for reversal in Louisiana v. Callais? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

45.1K contracts

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

499.1K contracts

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27.2K contracts

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

119.9K contracts

How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

25.7K contracts

When will FISA be reauthorized again? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

72.9K contracts

Trump late night post this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.6K contracts

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (4/19 - 4/25) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

105.2K contracts

Which Senators will vote to advance the SAVE America Act? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

245.7K contracts

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

32.0K contracts

Who will be confirmed by the Senate before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

81.7K contracts

How long will the next FISA authorization be? Kalshi

At least 30 days

Market Model 80.0% 80.2%

At least 90 days

Market Model 75.0% 75.4%

42.0K contracts

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

966.0K contracts

Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

302.5K contracts

How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6M contracts

When will DHS be funded again? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 92.6% 77.0%

14.4M contracts

Which DHS components will receive more funding before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

96.2K contracts

Which G7 leader will leave next? Kalshi

Keir Starmer

Market Model 53.0% 44.4%

Sanae Takaichi

Market Model 1.0% 1.1%

35.6K contracts

When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.4M contracts

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Kalshi

Todd Blanche

Market Model 64.0% 22.0%

Lee Zeldin

Market Model 18.0% 33.3%

602.7K contracts

Will Trump balance the budget? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 8.4%

40.3K contracts

Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Kalshi

Tulsi Gabbard

Market Model 16.0% 13.4%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Market Model 60.0% 44.7%

1.8M contracts

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Kalshi

Judy Shelton

Market Model 5.0% 3.8%

Kevin Warsh

Market Model 94.0% 86.3%

196.3M contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Generic congressional ballot on Oct 20, 2026?	—	—	High	65
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	98.0%	100.0%	High	—
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/5-10/11)	—	—	High	74
Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	71.0%	60.2%	Med	—
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/27 - 10/3)	—	—	High	—
Which AI CEOs will Trump meet this month?	—	—	Med	68
Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	54.0%	63.4%	High	—
Number of White House Press Briefings in Sep 2026?	—	—	High	71
When will Trump release more UFO files?	—	—	High	—
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19)	—	—	High	82
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/13 - 9/19)	—	—	High	—
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)	—	—	High	80
Fed Decision in September?	—	—	High	58
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12)	—	—	High	76
Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law?	—	—	Med	75
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)	—	—	High	—
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/29-9/4)	—	—	High	—
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?	—	—	Med	—
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Top outcome: Donald Trump	0.0%	13.6%	High	—
Israel closes its airspace by...?	—	—	High	—
Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	99.0%	99.9%	High	—
How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (8/30-9/5)	—	—	High	—
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/23 - 8/29)	—	—	High	—
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)	—	—	Med	—
Oklahoma Republican Labor Commissioner nominee? Top outcome: Kevin West	79.0%	75.7%	High	—
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (8/16-8/22)	—	—	High	—
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21)	—	—	High	—
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election	—	—	High	—
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?	—	—	High	—
Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?	—	—	High	—
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31	43.0%	23.9%	High	64
Ukraine election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026	12.0%	4.2%	High	52
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)	—	—	High	—
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Top outcome: October 31	77.0%	99.5%	High	—
What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting?	—	—	Med	—
When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	35.0%	27.1%	High	—
Will a court order a tariff refund?	—	—	Low	—
Keir Starmer departure announced? Top outcome: Before Dec 1, 2026	99.0%	98.6%	High	—
Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	11.0%	8.6%	High	—
Kash Patel out as FBI Director?	—	—	High	—
Trump-Zelenskyy bilateral at G7?	—	—	Med	—
When will the full text of the US-Iran MoU be officially released?	—	—	High	—
When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?	—	—	High	—
Will Spencer Pratt concede?	—	—	High	—
Who will attend Freedom 250?	—	—	Med	—
When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced?	—	—	High	—
Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence?	—	—	High	—
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (6/7 - 6/13)	—	—	Med	—
Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup?	—	—	Med	—
When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	99.5%	99.4%	High	—
Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump meet Mamdani before Jun 9, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump attend a Pro Basketball finals game?	—	—	Med	—
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	89.0%	83.4%	High	—
Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits?	—	—	Med	—
Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Yes refers to: Yes	91.0%	93.8%	Med	—
Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day?	—	—	Med	—
Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users?	—	—	Med	—
What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Ballroom security funding	2.0%	0.7%	Med	—
Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Top outcome: Thom Tillis	79.0%	72.4%	Med	—
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?	—	—	High	—
Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Yes refers to: Before 2027	91.8%	94.8%	Med	—
Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Yes refers to: Before 2027	21.0%	16.2%	Med	—
What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?	—	—	High	—
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/11 - 5/17)	—	—	High	—
Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	55.0%	53.4%	High	—
Who will make a public appearance in May 2026?	—	—	High	—
Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	49.0%	49.0%	Med	—
Who will leave Congress before July?	—	—	Med	—
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027	85.0%	85.1%	High	—
Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026	77.2%	67.7%	Med	—
When will JD Vance visit Pakistan?	—	—	High	—
Marty Makary out as FDA commissioner? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	82.0%	67.4%	High	—
Will Mamdani tax luxury second homes? Yes refers to: Yes	91.0%	92.2%	Med	—
Will Pete Hegseth announce his departure as Secretary of Defense?	—	—	High	—
Will Howard Lutnick announce his departure as Commerce Secretary?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump order more tariffs in May 2026?	—	—	Med	—
When will a Trump passport be issued? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	89.0%	89.1%	High	—
Will Trump sue Powell before his term ends?	—	—	Med	—
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?	—	—	High	—
Will Kash Patel announce his departure as FBI Director?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump do anything this week? (5/3-5/9)	—	—	High	—
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (5/3-5/9)	—	—	High	—
Who will visit Iran before July?	—	—	Med	—
Will the DNC release the 2024 autopsy report? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026	44.0%	24.6%	High	—
How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	88.0%	89.6%	Med	—
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in May 2026?	—	—	High	—
When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	—	—	High	—
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/4 - 5/10)	—	—	High	—
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/3-5/9)	—	—	Med	—
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/3 - 5/9)	—	—	High	—
When will Trump visit China?	—	—	High	—
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton	0.3%	2.0%	High	—
Trump's approval rating on May 8, 2026?	—	—	High	—
When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	3.0%	0.0%	High	—
Trump's approval rating on May 1, 2026?	—	—	High	—
How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 90 days	34.0%	19.3%	High	—
How many border encounters in Apr 2026? Top outcome: 9,000 to 9,999	23.0%	18.6%	Med	—
Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026?	—	—	Med	—
When will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	0.0%	50.2%	High	—
Who will Trump sue before May?	—	—	Med	—
Number of White House Press Briefings in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump punish SpaceX?	—	—	Med	—
Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?	—	—	High	—
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce her departure as Director of National Intelligence?	—	—	Med	—
Will Pam Bondi testify in front of Congress in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump do anything this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	Med	—
Who will join the Trump administration before July?	—	—	Med	—
Major news story in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	76.0%	66.6%	High	—
Who will visit Venezuela before May?	—	—	Med	—
Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?	—	—	Med	—
How many Truths will Trump delete in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?	—	—	High	—
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	High	—
How many justices will vote for Trump in the FTC removal case?	—	—	High	—
How many people will Trump pardon in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
When will the Supreme Court issue an opinion on the Voting Rights Act?	—	—	High	—
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (4/27 - 5/3)	—	—	High	—
When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced?	—	—	High	—
Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Top outcome: Rand Paul	69.0%	59.7%	Med	—
How many justices will vote for reversal in Louisiana v. Callais?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump's approval rating increase this week?	—	—	Med	—
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
When will FISA be reauthorized again?	—	—	High	—
Trump late night post this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	Med	—
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (4/19 - 4/25)	—	—	Med	—
Which Senators will vote to advance the SAVE America Act?	—	—	Med	—
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	High	—
Who will be confirmed by the Senate before May?	—	—	Med	—
How long will the next FISA authorization be? Top outcome: At least 30 days	80.0%	80.2%	High	—
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	Med	—
How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May?	—	—	High	—
When will DHS be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	92.6%	77.0%	High	—
Which DHS components will receive more funding before May?	—	—	Med	—
Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer	53.0%	44.4%	Med	—
When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General?	—	—	High	—
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche	64.0%	22.0%	High	—
Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	12.0%	8.4%	Med	—
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard	16.0%	13.4%	High	—
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton	5.0%	3.8%	High	—

Politics Markets

Active Markets (180)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company