Above 175
Market Model 59.0% 43.3%
Above 250
Market Model 6.0% 0.0%
Politics Markets
Active Markets (170)
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 70.4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Fed Decision in September? Polymarket
25 bps decrease
Market Model 0.5% 0.5%
No change
Market Model 45.0% 45.2%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 13.3%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 45.9%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 49.8%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
September 30
Market Model 0.8% 0.4%
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by...? Polymarket
December 31, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
September 30, 2026
Market Model 1.4% 0.8%
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Polymarket
Donald Trump
Market Model 2.1% 13.6%
UNRWA
Market Model 4.3% 11.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
September 30
Market Model 21.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 3.5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 30.0% 24.2%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 7.0% 7.7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.6% 2.6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.8% 3.8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 3.7% 1.7%
September 30
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
September 30
Market Model 2.1% 1.2%
December 31
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Venezuela leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Richard Grenell
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Frank Donovan
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 40.1%
On Dec 10, 2026
Market Model 76.0% 53.3%
On Nov 13, 2026
Market Model 57.0% 53.3%
Above 350 days
Market Model 83.0% 69.0%
Above 275 days
Market Model 0.0% 78.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 2.1%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 0.0% 3.1%
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 73.0%
Yes
Market Model 83.0% 76.6%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 5.1% 2.5%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 21.0% 20.2%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 6.4%
Before 2027
Market Model 5.4% 3.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 16.0% 10.7%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 5.2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 1.1% 1.9%
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 30.0% 26.1%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 11.0% 6.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 49.0% 36.9%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 47.0% 33.5%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Market Model 60.0% 48.8%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Will Trump be impeached? Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 4.1% 2.8%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 58.0% 43.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 27.0% 20.8%
Before 2028
Market Model 70.0% 72.2%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.9% 6.9%
Before January 21, 2029
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.5% 4.2%
Kash Patel
Market Model 61.0% 50.0%
Pete Hegseth
Market Model 28.0% 16.7%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 22.0% 11.2%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 70.0% 51.8%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 54.0% 35.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 5.3%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 17.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 34.0% 32.9%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 36.0% 43.7%
0
Market Model 12.0% 15.3%
2
Market Model 16.0% 13.2%
Turkey
Market Model 75.0% 79.3%
Taiwan
Market Model 8.5% 3.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Iran
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Syria
Market Model 12.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 49.0% 31.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 31.0% 18.6%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 15.4%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 52.0% 30.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 27.0% 14.0%
Yes
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
Saudi Arabia
Market Model 19.0% 7.7%
Lebanon
Market Model 14.0% 6.3%
Below 36%
Market Model 58.0% 59.1%
Below 35%
Market Model 48.0% 49.8%
Yes
Market Model 46.0% 29.2%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 31.0%
Will Trump make IVF free? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 6.6%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 17.2%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 9.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 8.4%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Mandatory body-worn cameras
Market Model 9.9% 6.0%
Visible identification
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
Reserve President Rejected
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
Presser Skipped
Market Model 55.0% 43.0%
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 12.2%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 12.1%
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 36.0% 14.3%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 76.4%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 65.0% 34.3%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 56.0% 26.3%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 15.0% 7.5%
Derek Chauvin
Market Model 6.1% 2.3%
Who will Trump pardon? Kalshi
Barron Trump
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
Donald Trump
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
Market Model 11.0% 3.6%
SHOWER Act
Market Model 23.0% 12.2%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 30.0%
Yes
Market Model 5.8% 2.6%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Market Model 44.0% 22.5%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 0.0% 17.5%
Tim Walz
Market Model 17.0% 8.1%
Ilhan Omar
Market Model 49.0% 36.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.1% 5.8%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.0%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 10.2%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Above 43%
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Above 44%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 13.4%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Wind turbines
Market Model 49.0% 40.0%
Canadian aircraft
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
James Fishback
Market Model 9.9% 4.0%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.3% 5.6%
Yes
Market Model 39.0% 42.9%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 3.7%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 30.9%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 9.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Before 2028
Market Model 47.0% 44.8%
Decrease 0-0.99%
Market Model 48.0% 38.0%
Increase 0.01-0.99%
Market Model 40.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 49.9%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 21.8%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 12.3%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 32.6%
Yes
Market Model 4.7% 5.4%
Donald Trump
Market Model 74.0% 52.6%
Bill Clinton
Market Model 80.0% 73.7%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 22.5%
Japan
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Italy
Market Model 9.9% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 6.1%
0
Market Model 64.0% 64.3%
2
Market Model 20.0% 10.2%
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 14.0%
Yes
Market Model 50.0% 32.4%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 21, 2029
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Yes
Market Model 7.3% 3.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Before 2029
Market Model 40.0% 24.7%
Yes
Market Model 76.0% 66.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 25.0% 25.8%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 59.0% 51.6%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 61.8%
Cuba
Market Model 40.0% 18.6%
Russia
Market Model 21.0% 7.0%
Nicolás Maduro
Market Model 13.0% 5.7%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 93.8% 91.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.5%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 30.3%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 30.0%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 12.1%
Portland
Market Model 21.0% 13.3%
San Francisco
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
No other person
Market Model 52.0% 28.6%
Ron DeSantis
Market Model 16.0% 11.1%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 19.0% 6.5%
Mark Zuckerberg
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
James Comey
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Barack Obama
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 13.1%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 50.0% 37.4%
Reza Pahlavi
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 13.9%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Yes
Market Model 8.4% 4.7%
Nancy Pelosi
Market Model 4.0% 15.1%
Larry Bucshon
Market Model 5.0% 12.6%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
United Nations
Market Model 43.0% 22.3%
World Trade Organization
Market Model 45.0% 22.6%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 6.1%
Amul Thapar
Market Model 9.0% 7.8%
Aileen Cannon
Market Model 12.0% 8.9%
Yes
Market Model 90.1% 91.4%
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 61.4%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 40.0%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 23.0%
Félix Tshisekedi
Market Model 15.0% 12.6%
Paul Kagame
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 51.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.4%
Below 300
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Above 800
Market Model 21.0% 17.6%
Clarence Thomas
Market Model 50.0% 27.0%
Samuel Alito
Market Model 70.0% 49.1%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 15.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 16.3%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before Jan 2028
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Greenland
Market Model 2.3% 18.7%
Venezuela
Market Model 1.8% 6.3%
$0 / No Acquisition
Market Model 78.0% 94.4%
$600 billion to $899 billion
Market Model 6.0% 0.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) Top outcome: Above 175 | 59.0% | 43.3% | High | 1,016 contracts | Refresh |
| Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii? Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 84.0% | 70.4% | High | 7,518 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | $65,564,832 | Refresh |
| Fed Decision in September? Top outcome: 25 bps decrease | 0.5% | 0.5% | High | $106,360,090 | Refresh |
| Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 10.0% | 13.3% | Med | 4,201 contracts | Refresh |
| AfD in a German state government in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 40.0% | 45.9% | Med | 1,195 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? Yes refers to: Yes | 30.0% | 49.8% | Med | 73,213 contracts | Refresh |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | $16,961,854 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | $17,855,633 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | $21,835,020 | Refresh |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? Top outcome: December 31, 2026 | 6.0% | 4.0% | High | $22,309,198 | Refresh |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Top outcome: Donald Trump | 2.1% | 13.6% | High | $23,607,469 | Refresh |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 21.0% | 14.2% | High | $24,088,220 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 16.0% | 14.2% | High | $24,484,143 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | $25,387,502 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | $39,021,762 | Refresh |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes refers to: September 30 | 6.0% | 3.5% | High | $27,692,519 | Refresh |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu | 30.0% | 24.2% | High | $34,335,757 | Refresh |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.6% | 2.6% | Med | $35,391,858 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.8% | 3.8% | Med | $40,452,395 | Refresh |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 3.7% | 1.7% | High | $66,135,669 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 2.1% | 1.2% | High | $72,451,457 | Refresh |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $95,882,980 | Refresh |
| Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 48.0% | 40.1% | Med | $124,097,646 | Refresh |
| Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? Top outcome: On Dec 10, 2026 | 76.0% | 53.3% | High | 13,531 contracts | Refresh |
| Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027? Top outcome: Above 350 days | 83.0% | 69.0% | High | 206 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 2.1% | High | 77 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the ABA lose its law school accreditation power? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 64.0% | 73.0% | Med | 3,076 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 83.0% | 76.6% | Med | 2,585 contracts | Refresh |
| When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.1% | 2.5% | High | 1,071,480 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026 | 10.0% | 6.4% | Med | 1,778,669 contracts | Refresh |
| Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Top outcome: Before 2027 | 5.4% | 3.6% | High | 10,747,368 contracts | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | $7,274,431 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | $1,780,551 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | $2,491,209 | Refresh |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 5.2% | Med | $10,489,655 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 4.2% | 4.2% | Med | $11,678,221 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 4.0% | 4.5% | High | $29,033,085 | Refresh |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 30.0% | 26.1% | High | 15,536,170 contracts | Refresh |
| Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 49.0% | 36.9% | High | 2,458,180 contracts | Refresh |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | 3,357,247 contracts | Refresh |
| Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 10.8% | High | 2,314,692 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.1% | 2.8% | High | 3,631,522 contracts | Refresh |
| Will marijuana be rescheduled? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 27.0% | 20.8% | High | 2,317,680 contracts | Refresh |
| Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | 2,877,365 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the SAVE Act become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 8.9% | 6.9% | Med | 5,723,984 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029 | 30.0% | 15.7% | High | 3,175,830 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Top outcome: Kash Patel | 61.0% | 50.0% | Med | 3,855,945 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 20, 2029 | 22.0% | 11.2% | High | 7,248,072 contracts | Refresh |
| When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 70.0% | 51.8% | High | 19,854,047 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.2% | 5.3% | High | 1,126,742 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Congressional salaries increase? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.2% | High | 27 contracts | Refresh |
| Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | 12,109 contracts | Refresh |
| Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 36.0% | 43.7% | Med | 13,764 contracts | Refresh |
| How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 15.3% | High | 92,102 contracts | Refresh |
| What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: Turkey | 75.0% | 79.3% | Med | 571,580 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | 90,031 contracts | Refresh |
| Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Top outcome: Iran | 4.0% | 1.4% | Med | 66,072 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | 62,018 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | 77,341 contracts | Refresh |
| Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 49.0% | 31.6% | High | 759,024 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 9.8% | Med | 1,249,003 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 26.0% | 15.4% | High | 375,790 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 52.0% | 30.6% | Med | 277,366 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Med | 119,527 contracts | Refresh |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Top outcome: Saudi Arabia | 19.0% | 7.7% | Med | 267,646 contracts | Refresh |
| How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Below 36% | 58.0% | 59.1% | High | 189,455 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 46.0% | 29.2% | Med | 1,570 contracts | Refresh |
| Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 31.0% | 31.0% | Med | 468 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump make IVF free? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 6.6% | Med | 34,510 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 17.2% | Med | 548 contracts | Refresh |
| Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes
| 17.0% | 13.5% | Med | 7,688 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump declare an election emergency? Yes refers to: Before Nov 4, 2026 | 25.0% | 9.3% | High | 33,192 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 9.0% | 8.4% | Med | 8,744 contracts | Refresh |
| Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | 1,959 contracts | Refresh |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Top outcome: Mandatory body-worn cameras | 9.9% | 6.0% | Med | 44,126 contracts | Refresh |
| Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? Top outcome: Reserve President Rejected | 9.0% | 3.6% | Med | 17,367 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 16.0% | 12.2% | Med | 18,727 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 12.1% | Med | 37,419 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | 9,541 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 9.0% | 7.8% | Med | 29,179 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 1.0% | 0.7% | Med | 9,750 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | 292,187 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 22.0% | 17.0% | Med | 450,741 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 5.1% | Med | 10,269 contracts | Refresh |
| Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 68.0% | 76.4% | Med | 316,012 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 65.0% | 34.3% | High | 19,967 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell | 15.0% | 7.5% | Med | 198,913 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Barron Trump | 40.0% | 27.0% | Med | 286,658 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0% | Med | 885,303 contracts | Refresh |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? Top outcome: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 11.0% | 3.6% | Med | 223,404 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 21.0% | 30.0% | Med | 109,874 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.8% | 2.6% | Med | 37,778 contracts | Refresh |
| When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Top outcome: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 44.0% | 22.5% | High | 49,454 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Top outcome: Tim Walz | 17.0% | 8.1% | Med | 712,769 contracts | Refresh |
| US bans social media for children in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 9.1% | 5.8% | Med | 15,545 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | 12,655 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 25.0% | 21.0% | Med | 32,741 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.2% | Med | 55,391 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | 1,887,226 contracts | Refresh |
| How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Above 43% | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | 100,315 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani raise property taxes? Yes refers to: Yes | 19.0% | 13.4% | Med | 4,204 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 10.0% | 10.0% | Med | 56,294 contracts | Refresh |
| When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 0.0% | High | 31,622 contracts | Refresh |
| Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Top outcome: Wind turbines | 49.0% | 40.0% | Med | 34,891 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Top outcome: James Fishback | 9.9% | 4.0% | Med | 52,525 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.3% | 5.6% | High | 420,548 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | 42.9% | Med | 39,067 contracts | Refresh |
| Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 5.0% | 3.7% | Med | 41,752 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 42.0% | 30.9% | Med | 16,531 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Yes refers to: any 3rd Amendment case | 12.0% | 9.0% | Med | 6,525 contracts | Refresh |
| Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 31.0% | 30.2% | High | 54,793 contracts | Refresh |
| NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Top outcome: Decrease 0-0.99% | 48.0% | 38.0% | High | 56,175 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Yes refers to: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump | 42.0% | 49.9% | Med | 14,231 contracts | Refresh |
| Will ICE change its name in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 31.0% | 21.8% | Med | 630 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned? Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 24.0% | 12.3% | High | 38,063 contracts | Refresh |
| Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Yes refers to: By Jan 1, 2027 | 26.0% | 32.6% | Med | 36,711 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the nickel be discontinued? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.7% | 5.4% | Med | 639 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Top outcome: Donald Trump | 74.0% | 52.6% | Med | 11,868 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 27.0% | 22.5% | Med | 122,992 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Top outcome: Japan | 11.0% | 4.6% | Med | 85,742 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | 6,841 contracts | Refresh |
| Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027 | 17.0% | 6.1% | High | 46,810 contracts | Refresh |
| How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 64.0% | 64.3% | High | 107,845 contracts | Refresh |
| Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | 12,067 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0% | Med | 99,584 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 50.0% | 32.4% | High | 15,900 contracts | Refresh |
| Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 8.7% | High | 79,686 contracts | Refresh |
| Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.3% | 3.6% | High | 54,736 contracts | Refresh |
| When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 11.0% | 6.4% | High | 38,688 contracts | Refresh |
| When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 76.0% | 66.6% | High | 8,476 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 25.0% | 25.8% | High | 923,937 contracts | Refresh |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 61.8% | Med | 1,046 contracts | Refresh |
| What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026? Top outcome: Cuba | 40.0% | 18.6% | Med | 58,874 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Top outcome: Nicolás Maduro | 13.0% | 5.7% | Med | 336,510 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 5.5% | Med | 22,819 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 24.0% | 30.3% | Med | 20,270 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 30.0% | 30.0% | Med | 517,033 contracts | Refresh |
| Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 12.1% | Med | 299,711 contracts | Refresh |
| Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Top outcome: Portland | 21.0% | 13.3% | Med | 66,782 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 16.2% | High | 706,222 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Top outcome: No other person | 52.0% | 28.6% | High | 25,193 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell | 19.0% | 6.5% | Med | 85,654 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be arrested before 2027? Top outcome: James Comey | 75.0% | 67.3% | Med | 1,697,030 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 13.1% | Med | 27,026 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will visit the White House in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 50.0% | 37.4% | Med | 180,469 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the filibuster be weakened? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 13.9% | High | 32,567 contracts | Refresh |
| Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.4% | 4.7% | Med | 17,552 contracts | Refresh |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Top outcome: Nancy Pelosi | 4.0% | 15.1% | Med | 8,017 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 21.0% | 19.5% | Med | 1,488 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | 11,786 contracts | Refresh |
| What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Top outcome: United Nations | 43.0% | 22.3% | Med | 16,431 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 13.0% | 6.1% | Med | 9,303 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Top outcome: Amul Thapar | 9.0% | 7.8% | High | 306,261 contracts | Refresh |
| Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Yes refers to: Ending Jun 4, 2029 | 90.1% | 91.4% | Med | 12,659 contracts | Refresh |
| EU has a new member before 2030? Yes refers to: Any country | 72.0% | 61.4% | Med | 6,655 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | 7,037 contracts | Refresh |
| Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? Yes refers to: Between 2025 and 2035? | 19.0% | 23.0% | Med | 800 contracts | Refresh |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi | 15.0% | 12.6% | High | 9,487 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 51.0% | Med | 5,239 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 7.0% | 6.4% | Med | 105,682 contracts | Refresh |
| How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 26,513 contracts | Refresh |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas | 50.0% | 27.0% | Med | 51,480 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | 53,434 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | 15.3% | High | 98,074 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 12.0% | 7.8% | Med | 109,977 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump resign during his term? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 24.0% | 16.3% | Med | 166,509 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | 591,333 contracts | Refresh |
| What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland | 2.3% | 18.7% | High | 594,741 contracts | Refresh |
| How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition | 78.0% | 94.4% | High | 1,023,227 contracts | Refresh |
Expired Markets (129)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 99.0% 99.9%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 96.0% 99.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Kevin West
Market Model 79.0% 75.7%
John Pfeiffer
Market Model 21.0% 24.3%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
September 30
Market Model 88.0% 99.5%
October 31
Market Model 77.0% 99.5%
What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 25.0% 15.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 97.0% 95.9%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 98.6%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 8.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Will Spencer Pratt concede? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Who will attend Freedom 250? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 99.5% 99.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 89.0% 83.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 91.0% 93.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Ballroom security funding
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Thom Tillis
Market Model 79.0% 72.4%
Susan Collins
Market Model 82.0% 71.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 91.8% 94.8%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 55.0% 53.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 85.0% 85.1%
Before Dec 2026
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Yes
Market Model 77.2% 67.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 82.0% 67.4%
Yes
Market Model 91.0% 92.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 89.0% 89.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 88.0% 89.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
When will Trump visit China? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Judy Shelton
Market Model 0.3% 2.0%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 99.5% 95.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least 90 days
Market Model 34.0% 19.3%
At least 75 days
Market Model 99.9% 100.0%
9,000 to 9,999
Market Model 23.0% 18.6%
12,000 to 13,000
Market Model 22.0% 17.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 0.0% 50.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Will Trump punish SpaceX? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Rand Paul
Market Model 69.0% 59.7%
John Fetterman
Market Model 98.0% 97.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least 30 days
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
At least 90 days
Market Model 75.0% 75.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 92.6% 77.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Keir Starmer
Market Model 53.0% 44.4%
Sanae Takaichi
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Todd Blanche
Market Model 64.0% 22.0%
Lee Zeldin
Market Model 18.0% 33.3%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 8.4%
Tulsi Gabbard
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Market Model 60.0% 44.7%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 41,652 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 26,858 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 19,130 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | $14,195,586 | ||
| Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99.0% | 99.9% | High | 9,134 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 11,078 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 10,918 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 29,588 contracts | ||
| Oklahoma Republican Labor Commissioner nominee? Top outcome: Kevin West | 79.0% | 75.7% | High | 1,876 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 235,982 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 25,410 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | $336,982 | ||
| — | — | High | $615,224 | ||
| — | — | High | 629,016 contracts | ||
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | $767,367 | |
| — | — | High | $12,510,059 | ||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Top outcome: September 30 | 88.0% | 99.5% | High | $20,840,729 | |
| — | — | Med | $194,293 | ||
| When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 25.0% | 15.4% | High | 87,653 contracts | |
| — | — | Low | 0 contracts | ||
| Keir Starmer departure announced? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 97.0% | 95.9% | High | 2,750,350 contracts | |
| Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11.0% | 8.6% | High | 54,191 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 2,153,847 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 10,799 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 6,370 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 30,753 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 19,515 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 623,490 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 26,617 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,847,550 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 13,216 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 9,421 contracts | ||
| When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99.5% | 99.4% | High | 141,150 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 46,254 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 38,384 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 18,289 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 1,049,829 contracts | ||
| When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 89.0% | 83.4% | High | 528,095 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 7,729 contracts | ||
| Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? Yes refers to: Yes | 91.0% | 93.8% | Med | 38,912 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 58,927 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 62,638 contracts | ||
| What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Ballroom security funding | 2.0% | 0.7% | Med | 40,903 contracts | |
| Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Top outcome: Thom Tillis | 79.0% | 72.4% | Med | 30,147 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 1,365,157 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,348 contracts | ||
| Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 91.8% | 94.8% | Med | 22,102 contracts | |
| Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 16.2% | Med | 1,209,226 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 11,569 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 4,336 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 66,572 contracts | ||
| Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 55.0% | 53.4% | High | 10,030 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 4,124 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 149,552 contracts | ||
| When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 85.0% | 85.1% | High | 11,719 contracts | |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 77.2% | 67.7% | Med | 106,453 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 56,043 contracts | ||
| Marty Makary out as FDA commissioner? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 82.0% | 67.4% | High | 13,949 contracts | |
| Will Mamdani tax luxury second homes? Yes refers to: Yes | 91.0% | 92.2% | Med | 5,227 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 22,483 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 16,915 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 21,306 contracts | ||
| When will a Trump passport be issued? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 89.0% | 89.1% | High | 6,408 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 52,956 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 293,447 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 186,539 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 19,816 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 29,167 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 450,812 contracts | ||
| Will the DNC release the 2024 autopsy report? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 44.0% | 24.6% | High | 42,627 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 616,936 contracts | ||
| Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 88.0% | 89.6% | Med | 182,518 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 89,207 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,711,535 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 127,193 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 94,749 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 56,372 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 776,059 contracts | ||
| Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 0.3% | 2.0% | High | 6,881,888 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 43,227 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 110,971 contracts | ||
| How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 90 days | 34.0% | 19.3% | High | 19,826,631 contracts | |
| How many border encounters in Apr 2026? Top outcome: 9,000 to 9,999 | 23.0% | 18.6% | Med | 2,545 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 145,217 contracts | ||
| When will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.0% | 50.2% | High | 1,174 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 31,569 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 19,188 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 13,988 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 16,165 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 30,335 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 26,277 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 3,681 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 19,082 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 13,715 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 6,241 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 544,272 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 51,053 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 27,904 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 254,937 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 1,298 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 51,522 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 4,347 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 72,284 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 4,862 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 158,108 contracts | ||
| Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Top outcome: Rand Paul | 69.0% | 59.7% | Med | 127,506 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 45,065 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 499,095 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 27,221 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 119,865 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 25,729 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 72,913 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 13,586 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 105,201 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 245,669 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 31,968 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 81,678 contracts | ||
| How long will the next FISA authorization be? Top outcome: At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | High | 41,981 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 966,005 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 302,456 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 1,637,042 contracts | ||
| When will DHS be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 92.6% | 77.0% | High | 14,355,230 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 96,233 contracts | ||
| Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer | 53.0% | 44.4% | Med | 35,602 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 4,405,941 contracts | ||
| Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche | 64.0% | 22.0% | High | 602,678 contracts | |
| Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 12.0% | 8.4% | Med | 40,327 contracts | |
| Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard | 16.0% | 13.4% | High | 1,754,507 contracts | |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | 196,269,477 contracts |
