Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Trump's approval rating will get Below 40% before 2027.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern, with the price consistently indicating a high probability for the "YES" outcome. The contract has traded within a narrow 6-point range, from a low of 79.0% to a high of 85.0%. These levels have effectively acted as support and resistance, respectively. Since opening at 82.0%, the price has shown minimal volatility, currently sitting at 84.0%. This stability at a high probability level suggests a strong and unwavering market consensus from the outset.
The price action directly reflects the provided context. With President Trump's approval rating reported to be consistently between 36% and 39% in late May 2026, the market is pricing in the existing reality that his approval is already below the 40% threshold. The lack of significant price drops suggests traders believe a recovery above this level is unlikely before the market's resolution period. The total trading volume of 1,577 contracts across numerous data points is relatively low, and recent sample points show no volume. This pattern suggests a strong consensus or lack of disagreement, as there are few participants willing to bet against the prevailing sentiment, leading to lower trading activity. The market sentiment is therefore one of high conviction that Trump's approval will dip below 40% at some point before 2027.
  • Current polling reports President Trump's approval rating at historically low levels.
  • Some polls place approval as low as 34% as of May 27, 2026.
  • Negative economic and political factors are expected to depress approval through late 2026.
  • Q2 2026 polling indicates significantly low support among independent voters.
  • Consumer sentiment plummeted to a record low in May 2026.
  • Major legislative and foreign policy events may reduce approval in late 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Below 36% 58.0% 59.1% Current polling reports President Trump's approval rating as low as 34%.
Below 35% 48.0% 49.8% President Trump's approval rating is reported as low as 34% in recent polls.
Below 33% 29.0% 31.7% Persistent negative economic and political factors are expected to further depress approval through late 2026.
Below 38% 84.0% 84.1% Polling consistently reports President Trump's approval rating at historically low levels.
Below 34% 34.0% 36.6% President Trump's approval rating is currently reported as low as 34% by polls.

Current Context

As of late May 2026, President Trump's approval rating ranges between 36% and 39%. His overall job approval rating consistently sits within this range across major polling aggregators, with disapproval ratings typically reported between 57% and 61% [1][2][3][4][5].
Widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy is the primary driver of Trump's declining approval. Throughout 2026, public discontent regarding inflation and high consumer prices has been a significant factor, leading to net approval on these issues reaching record lows of -47 [1][2][3][6][7]. This decline has also seen a notable erosion of support among key voting blocs critical to his 2024 election success, including independent voters and suburban voters [2][6][7].
A significant recovery in Trump's approval rating above 44% in 2026 is considered unlikely. Prediction markets and analysts generally hold this view, citing the absence of traditional rally effects and the persistence of structural economic headwinds as contributing factors [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Trump Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low With GOP: Fox News Poll - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  2. 2Trump Approval Rating May 2026: Key Trends | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  3. 3Poll: Trump’s approval rating hits another low on prices as Democrats hit +8 on generic ballotgelliottmorris.com
  4. 4Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletinnatesilver.net
  5. 5Opinion polling on the second Trump presidencyen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Trump Loses Ground on Several Personal Traits as Approval Rating Slips | Pew Research Centerpewresearch.org
  7. 7'The GOP Is In a Silent State of Panic': Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Are A Total Disaster - National Security Journalnationalsecurityjournal.org
  8. 8Polymarket Odds: How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026? (AI Predictions)polychances.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 26, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 41.0% to 49.0%

Outcome: Below 35%

What happened: The market's 8.0 percentage point spike on May 26, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news: the release of new polling data showing President Trump's approval rating reaching historic lows. On this date, multiple reputable polls placed his approval between 34% and 39% [1][2][3]. This news directly coincided with the market movement, as his ratings were already nearing or within the "Below 35%" threshold [1][2]. Social media was not indicated as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or a relevant factor in the provided research.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Poll: Trump’s approval rating hits another low on prices as Democrats hit +8 on generic ballotgelliottmorris.com
  2. 2Shock Fox News Poll Shows Trump's Approval Rating In The Toilet With Republicans | HuffPost Latest Newshuffpost.com
  3. 3Donald Trump drops to record-low for his presidential job approvalyougovamerica.substack.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump's average approval rating, as reported by VoteHub, falls below 35% at any point between December 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. If the rating never drops below 35% during this period, the market resolves to No. The market opens on December 11, 2025, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by January 7, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Below 38% $0.85 $0.17 84%
Below 37% $0.70 $0.32 68%
Below 36% $0.59 $0.42 58%
Below 35% $0.48 $0.58 48%
Below 34% $0.32 $0.71 34%
Below 33% $0.29 $0.74 29%

Market Discussion

Traders on Kalshi are debating the likelihood of Donald Trump's approval rating dropping below thresholds like 35% as measured by VoteHub before 2027, with the market currently showing a 48% chance for it to fall below 35%. Arguments for a decline cite a struggling economy and alleged corruption, while one user speculates on a "sympathy bump" from an assassination attempt. A significant point of discussion reveals that many participants may be misunderstanding the market rules, as informed traders clarify that the official VoteHub aggregate has not yet reached the low figures some traders are referencing.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score59Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
75Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

5 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Below 34%49
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below 35%74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below 33%74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 8% vs realized 1%
Below 36%76
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below 37%77
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

5 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Below 36%70
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Below 37%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Below 35%—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Below 34%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Below 33%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Below 37%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 36%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 35%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 34%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 33%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
59Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 75 (notional-weighted across 5 scored legs)

$100 order: 2.6c slippage (~3% of a 76.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 settled or closed — not scored

Below 37%77Market scoreLiquidity77Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 77
Liquidity
77 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 36%76Market scoreLiquidity76Move quality70Rule clarity100
Why 76
Liquidity
76 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 35%74Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 34%49Market scoreLiquidity49Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 49
Liquidity
49 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below 33%74Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 8% vs realized 1%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 24, 2026

6. What potential economic shocks in the second half of 2026 could cause a significant drop in President Trump's approval rating?

Overall Job Approval (May 2026)38% [1]
Economy-Handling Approval (May 2026)36% [1][2]
Top Economic Concern ('prices')45% (May 2026) [1][2]
Economic shocks in late 2026 could significantly reduce President Trump's approval. A substantial drop in President Trump's approval rating during the second half of 2026 could stem from an inflation-and-energy shock, particularly if coupled with deteriorating employment and fiscal vulnerabilities arising from increasing interest costs [3][4]. By May 2026, President Trump's overall job approval was reported at 38%, with his approval for handling the economy at 36%. The primary economic concern cited by the public was "prices," at 45% [1][2]. An "inflation-and-energy shock" is identified as a critical macro threat [3].
Middle East supply disruptions could trigger a severe energy and inflation shock. Such an "inflation-and-energy shock" is specifically linked to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, which could actively influence public sentiment and heighten recession probabilities if high inflation persists and hiring weakens [3]. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint accounting for approximately 20% of the world's oil during peacetime, can transmit directly to global energy prices and shipping costs [5]. The most detrimental scenario for approval ratings would involve this energy and inflation shock combined with a weakening job market, such as unemployment rising toward a critical threshold [3].
Rising net interest costs could exacerbate economic downturns and fiscal challenges. This situation could be further complicated by underlying fiscal vulnerabilities. Projections indicate that net interest costs are set to increase to $1.0 trillion, representing 3.3% of GDP, in fiscal year 2026 [4]. This rising "interest-to-revenue" problem means that a larger proportion of federal revenue is allocated to debt service, thereby limiting the government's tools to effectively respond to a recession. It also contributes to a feedback loop of higher yields and increased interest costs, which can negatively impact presidential approval ratings [4][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and Moremaristpoll.marist.edu
  2. 2Donald Trump dealt economic blow across three new polls - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  3. 3Recession Risk 34/100 — May 26, 2026 | RecessionPulserecessionpulse.com
  4. 4Interest Payments on the National Debt: the Near- and Long-term Outlook - AAFamericanactionforum.org
  5. 5Maths behind Hormuz toll: Is paying Iran for transit cheaper than blockade? | US-Israel war on Iran | Al Jazeera1-e8259.azureedge.net
  6. 6US Debt Sustainability: Economic Risks and Interest Cost Challenges - News Usa Todaynews-usa.today

7. What do Q2-Q3 2026 polling crosstabs from major pollsters like Fox News and Pew Research show about Trump's support among independent voters?

Net Approval Decrease (Independents)18-point decrease compared to May 2025 [1]
Disapproval of Economy (Independents)70% disapproved [2][3]
Generic Congressional Ballot Preference (Independents)49% preferred Democratic candidate [4]
Polling crosstabs from Q2 2026 indicated significantly low support for Trump among independent voters. A Pew poll from May 2026 revealed that Trump reached "record or near-record lows among key voting blocs, including Gen Z and independent voters" [5][6]. This represented a notable 18-point decrease in net approval among independents compared to May 2025 [1]. Furthermore, a Newsweek analysis suggested that "Independents jumped ship in 2025," noting that "non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering" [7][8].
Specific polls in Q2 2026 further detailed Trump's low approval ratings among independents. Among independents, 70% disapproved of his handling of the economy, while only 27% approved [2][3]. A New York Times/Siena poll in May 2026 reportedly showed Trump with 26% approval among independents [9]. Additionally, an April 24-28, 2026, Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that Trump's ratings among Republican-leaning independents reached a new low of 56% disapproval [10].
Independent voters also preferred Democratic candidates on generic congressional ballots. The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, conducted April 27-30, 2026, indicated that 49% of independent voters preferred the Democratic candidate, compared to 37% for the Republican candidate [4]. A Survey 160 tracking poll from April 8-13, 2026, reinforced this, showing independent voters' preference for Democratic candidates remained largely stable at 51% in April, with 22% preferring Republican candidates [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1newsweek.com
  2. 2forbes.com
  3. 3qu.edupoll.qu.edu
  4. 4marist.edumaristpoll.marist.edu
  5. 5pewresearch.org
  6. 6newsweek.com
  7. 7wonderwall.com
  8. 8youtube.com
  9. 9reddit.com
  10. 10washingtonpost.com
  11. 11survey160.com

8. Which leading consumer sentiment indices, such as the University of Michigan's survey, are forecasting economic dissatisfaction to persist through late 2026?

Consumer Sentiment Index (May 2026)44.8 [1][2][3]
Consumer Sentiment Trend (May 2026)Third consecutive monthly decline [1][2][3]
Recession Expectation (KPMG Summer 2026)63 percent of respondents expect a recession within the next year [4]
Consumer sentiment plummeted to a record low in May 2026. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment recorded a record-low of 44.8 in May 2026, reflecting intense economic dissatisfaction and marking its third consecutive monthly decline [1][2][3]. This significant decline was attributed to intensified cost-of-living concerns, further exacerbated by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and resulting higher gasoline prices [1][2][3].
Economic pessimism and recession forecasts are expected to persist. The KPMG Consumer Pulse Survey for Summer 2026 further indicates widespread expectations for persistent economic pessimism [4]. Specifically, 63 percent of respondents anticipate an economic downturn within the next year, supporting the projection that economic dissatisfaction is likely to continue through late 2026 [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Surveys of Consumerssca.isr.umich.edu
  2. 2United States Michigan Consumer Sentimenttradingeconomics.com
  3. 3Consumer Sentiment Sinks to Record Low as Cost of Living Concerns Intensify - dshort - Advisor Perspectivesadvisorperspectives.com
  4. 4Consumer Pulse Survey | Summer 2026kpmg.com

9. What major legislative or foreign policy events scheduled for late 2026 could act as catalysts for a negative shift in Trump's public approval?

BUILD America 250 Act DeadlineSeptember 30, 2026 [1][2][3]
Trump Approval Early 2026Approximately 44% [4][5]
Trump Approval Spring 2026Around 40% [4][5]
Legislative deadlines and foreign policy challenges may reduce Trump's approval. Key legislative items include the September 30, 2026, deadline for the reauthorization of the BUILD America 250 Act, alongside anticipated further debate on housing affordability legislation [1][2][3]. Concurrently, stalled peace initiatives in Ukraine and the Middle East are anticipated to present significant foreign policy challenges [3][6][7].
Economic concerns are projected to decrease Trump's approval ratings. These international conflicts, combined with persistent domestic economic anxiety over inflation and housing costs, are expected to be central to electoral scrutiny leading up to the 2026 midterms [3][6][7]. Prediction markets tracking Trump's approval ratings for 2026 indicate a downward trajectory, moving from approximately 44% in early 2026 to around 40% by the spring [4][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Graves & Larsen Announce Deal on Bipartisan, Five-Year Surface Transportation Reauthorization – the BUILD America 250 Act | Transportation and Infrastructure Committeetransportation.house.gov
  2. 2House passes housing affordability bill that softens institutional investor ban | CNN Businesscnn.com
  3. 32026 in the United Statesen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026 66% No · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
  5. 5How low will Trump's approval rating get 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  6. 6Trump's Biggest Challenges in 2026, From Russia-Ukraine to Midtermsforeignpolicy.com
  7. 7Trump’s Foreign Policy Focus Faces Test in 2026: Unfinished Wars, Rising Tensions, and a Crowded Global Agendatheasialive.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of May 27, 2026, President Donald Trump's overall job approval rating is consistently reported in the range of 34%–38%, with various aggregates placing it near 37%–38.6% [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This reflects a steady decline throughout 2026 from highs near 44%–47% in January [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Key bearish catalysts driving the declining approval ratings include persistent inflation and high cost-of-living concerns, with record-low approval on prices [1][2][7][3][5][6]. Additional factors are controversy over immigration enforcement, military strikes in Iran and Venezuela, and erosion of support among independent and suburban voters [1][2][7][3][5][6]. Midterm election anxiety is also a primary factor [1][2][7][3][5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 07, 2027
  • Closes: January 07, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Poll: Trump’s approval rating hits another low on prices as Democrats hit +8 on generic ballotgelliottmorris.com
  2. 2'The GOP Is In a Silent State of Panic': Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Are A Total Disaster - National Security Journalnationalsecurityjournal.org
  3. 3Trump Approval Rating May 2026: Key Trends | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  4. 4FiftyPlusOne - Latest Donald Trump Approval Polls and Average for 2026fiftyplusone.news
  5. 5Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and Moremaristpoll.marist.edu
  6. 6Trump Loses Ground on Several Personal Traits as Approval Rating Slips | Pew Research Centerpewresearch.org
  7. 7Trump's strikes on Iran, Venezuela complicate US-Iran peace, nuclear dealscryptobriefing.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-40: YES (Apr 15, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-39: YES (Apr 21, 2026)