Trade Kalshi and Polymarket from your terminal.
An AI agent that researches every market, finds edge against the live order book, and executes trades. One CLI per venue, one research pipeline underneath. Half-Kelly sizing. Five-gate risk engine.
bunx kalshi-trading-bot-cli@latest bunx polymarket-trading-bot-cli@latest A research analyst, risk manager, and order router — on both venues.
AI agent loop
Natural-language queries trigger up to 10 tool-use iterations across the venue and Octagon. Bring your own LLM key — OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, OpenRouter, or local Ollama.
Edge detection
Octagon's model probability minus the live order book = edge. Surfaced per market, ranked across the universe, and sized with half-Kelly behind five risk gates before a dollar is risked.
Diversified baskets Kalshi
One-call basket construction with thematic-cluster caps and pairwise correlation caps. Backtest a theme, Kelly-size it, validate cluster overlap — all server-side. Available on Kalshi, where Octagon computes the clustering.
From "I have an idea" to a filled order in four lines.
Discover
Server-side full-text + semantic search across the Kalshi universe.
> search "bitcoin price" --category crypto --min-volume 10000 Ticker Title Last Volume
KXBTC-26APR-B95000 Bitcoin above $95k by Apr 30 $0.58 12,841
KXBTC-26APR-B100000 Bitcoin above $100k by Apr 30 $0.31 8,203
KXETH-26APR-B2000 Ethereum above $2k by Apr 30 $0.72 5,419
3 markets foundAnalyze
Per-event research report with model probability, drivers, and Kelly sizing.
> analyze KXBTC-26APR-B95000 Octagon Research Report — KXBTC-26APR-B95000
────────────────────────────────────────
Model Probability 72%
Market Price 58%
Edge +14.0% (very_high confidence)
Top Drivers
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerating impact: high
2. Halving cycle momentum impact: high
3. Macro risk-on sentiment impact: moderate
Kelly Sizing: 3 contracts YES at $0.58
Risk gates: ✓ Kelly ✓ Liquidity ✓ Corr ✓ Concentration ✓ DrawdownBuild a diversified basket
One call: candidate universe → cluster caps → correlation caps → Kelly sizing.
> basket build --label fed,cpi,fomc,gdp,jobs -n 5 --max-corr 0.4 Basket built · 5 legs · max pairwise corr 0.32
────────────────────────────────────────
KXFEDDECISION-MAR YES $0.61 Kelly $122 cluster: fed-policy
KXCPIYOY-FEB NO $0.44 Kelly $98 cluster: inflation
KXFOMC-DOTS-25Q4 YES $0.55 Kelly $87 cluster: fed-policy
KXU3-MAR NO $0.39 Kelly $76 cluster: labor
KXGDPNOW-Q1 YES $0.52 Kelly $64 cluster: growth
Total exposure: $447 · expected return: +18.6%Execute
Confirm with one keystroke. Limit price in cents, side defaults to YES.
> buy KXBTC-26APR-B95000 3 58 Confirm order? [y/n] y
✓ Order placed: BUY 3 YES @ $0.58
Order ID: abc-123-def
Cash: $487.26 · Exposure: $1.74 · Open positions: 1Discover
Search by keyword, category, theme, or liquidity across Polymarket.
> search crypto --min-volume 5000 --limit 3 Market Last Volume
will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-march-31-2027 0.41 9,640
will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-june-30-2027 0.53 6,175
will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-december-31-2027 0.69 11,208
3 markets foundAnalyze
Per-market research report with model probability, drivers, and Kelly sizing.
> analyze will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-december-31-2027 Octagon Research Report
— will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-december-31-2027
────────────────────────────────────────
Model Probability 81%
Market Price 69%
Edge +12.0% (very_high confidence)
Top Drivers
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerating impact: high
2. Halving cycle momentum impact: high
3. Macro risk-on sentiment impact: moderate
Kelly Sizing: 14 shares YES at $0.69
Risk gates: ✓ Kelly ✓ Liquidity ✓ Corr ✓ Concentration ✓ DrawdownCheck the contract
Trader Trust scores how clearly a market is defined before you rely on its price.
> trust when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k Trader Trust — when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k
────────────────────────────────────────
Overall 84 / 100
Integrity (80%) 87 resolution source named, terms unambiguous
Trade quality (20%) 72 spread 1.0¢ · depth adequate both sides
6 markets scored in this eventExecute
Confirm with one keystroke. Limit price in decimal dollars, side defaults to YES.
> buy will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-december-31-2027 14 0.69 Confirm order? 14 shares YES @ $0.69 = $9.66 [y/n] y
✓ Order placed: BUY 14 YES @ $0.69
Order ID: 0x3f2a9c…
Balance: $487.26 · Exposure: $9.66 · Open positions: 1No clone. No install. Just bunx.
Install Bun
Bun ≥ 1.1 is required — the CLI uses bun:sqlite and runs .tsx directly.
curl -fsSL https://bun.com/install | bash Get a Kalshi API key
From kalshi.com — you'll need an API key plus an RSA private key. Use demo mode for paper trading.
Optional: Octagon key
An Octagon key unlocks AI edge analysis, semantic search, clusters, and basket construction.
Run the CLI
The setup wizard handles the rest — keys land in ~/.kalshi-bot/.env.
bunx kalshi-trading-bot-cli@latest Install Bun
Bun ≥ 1.1 is required — the CLI uses bun:sqlite and runs .tsx directly.
curl -fsSL https://bun.com/install | bash Import your wallet
Fund an account on polymarket.com, then import the key. It stays on your machine — orders are signed locally. Pass an address instead to read balances without trading.
polymarket wallet import <private-key> Optional: Octagon key
An Octagon key unlocks AI edge analysis, related-market discovery, event outcome ladders, and Trader Trust scorecards.
Run the CLI
The setup wizard handles the rest — configuration lands in ~/.polymarket-bot/.
bunx polymarket-trading-bot-cli@latest Command reference Click to expand · what each CLI supports
| Command | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
search, search edge | ✓ | ✓ |
analyze | ✓ | ✓ |
report, trust | ✓ | ✓ |
events, catalysts | ✓ | ✓ |
similar | ✓ | ✓ |
watch, backtest | ✓ | ✓ |
themes | ✓ | — |
clusters, peers | ✓ | — |
correlate | ✓ | — |
basket | ✓ | — |
series | ✓ | — |
buy, sell | ✓ | ✓ |
wallet | — | ✓ |
Octagon computes clustering, correlation, basket construction, and series rollups for Kalshi, so clusters, peers, correlate, basket, series and the editorial themes registry that builds on them are available there. Full reference: Kalshi CLI docs · Polymarket CLI docs.
Try Kalshi now — zero install
No clone, no setup. The wizard prompts you on first launch and writes everything locally to ~/.kalshi-bot/.env.
bunx kalshi-trading-bot-cli@latest Try Polymarket now — zero install
No clone, no setup. The wizard prompts you on first launch and writes everything locally to ~/.polymarket-bot/.
bunx polymarket-trading-bot-cli@latest Or wire the API into your own stack
Both CLIs run entirely on the public Octagon REST API — search, edge, events, reports. Bring your own runtime.
New to the venues? Start with how Kalshi works or Polymarket versus Kalshi, check a market's Trust Score, then browse the research.
