The prediction market intelligence platform.
We turn every active prediction market into a researched, cited report — and surface where our model disagrees with the live price.
What we build
Octagon publishes prediction market intelligence across four surfaces, all powered by the same research pipeline:
- Reports — AI-assisted research, reviewed by Octagon analysts, on every active Kalshi event. Cited sources, model probabilities, executive summaries, refreshed continuously.
- News — Real-time analysis of significant probability moves: which events repriced, by how much, and why. Covers Companies, Economics, Politics, Sports, Crypto, Financials, and Mentions.
- CLI — A terminal trading agent (
kalshi-trading-bot-cli) that researches markets, finds edge versus the live order book, and executes trades with half-Kelly sizing behind a five-gate risk engine. - API — 21 typed REST endpoints for semantic search, thematic clusters, basket construction, and edge ranking across the full Kalshi universe.
How the research works
Every report is built by a research agent that reads the underlying sources, weighs the drivers, and produces a model probability with confidence — distinct from the market price. The gap between our model and the live price is what we call edge. We surface that edge per event, rank it across the universe, and expose it through every product surface. Every claim is linked to source material so it can be audited.
Coverage
We currently cover Kalshi — the largest US-regulated prediction market exchange — across every active contract: Companies, Economics, Crypto, Politics, Sports, Financials, Climate, and emerging verticals. Polymarket coverage is on the roadmap. Reports refresh as new evidence appears; news articles refresh as fresh probability moves are detected.
Who's behind it
Octagon was founded in 2023 by Ken So. The company is backed by AI Fund — the early-stage venture firm founded by Dr. Andrew Ng. AI Fund is a $176M fund that has incubated 33+ AI companies. Octagon also partners with SALT, whose events connect with over $15T of investible capital globally.
Team
Ken So
Co-Founder & CEO, Octagon
Sets Octagon's research and editorial direction. Designs the model probability methodology and reviews every published market report.
Melvin Tercan
Head of Engineering, Octagon
Builds Octagon's research pipeline, prediction APIs, and the trading CLI on top of live Kalshi market data.
Editorial standards
Every prediction market story and report is published as first-party editorial work by Octagon Research — original analysis using Octagon's research workflow over live market data and external evidence, not scraped rewrites of wire copy. Articles focus on material probability moves rather than noise, with transparent methodology, consistent terminology, and direct links to source material so every claim can be verified.
Get in touch
For partnerships, press, enterprise deals, or research inquiries: [email protected]. For product questions, the developer docs are the fastest start.
