US gas prices this week Kalshi
Above 4.1800
Market Model 99.0% 99.1%
Above 4.1400
Market Model 99.0% 99.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US gas prices this week Top outcome: Above 4.1800 | 99.0% | 99.1% | High | 145,602 contracts | Refresh |
Diesel prices this week Top outcome: Above $5.94 | 68.0% | 59.1% | High | 56,628 contracts | Refresh |
Diesel prices in Sep 2026 Top outcome: Above $6.00 | 42.0% | 58.3% | High | 34,015 contracts | Refresh |
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026? Top outcome: Hike 25bps | 6.0% | 6.5% | High | 2,855 contracts | Refresh |
How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.9% | 3.9% | High | 88,327 contracts | Refresh |
Reserve Bank of India rate decision in October Top outcome: Hike 1-25bps | 58.0% | 50.1% | High | 2,125 contracts | Refresh |
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps) | 89.0% | 89.6% | High | $50,421,379 | Refresh |
How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 94,000 MW | 2.0% | 0.4% | High | 73,918 contracts | Refresh |
CPI in September Top outcome: Above 0.6% | 20.0% | 10.1% | Med | 77,661 contracts | Refresh |
Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026? Yes refers to: In Dec 2026 | 97.0% | 93.3% | Med | 16,275 contracts | Refresh |
Largest Company end of September? Top outcome: NVIDIA | 85.0% | 80.7% | High | $101,108 | Refresh |
Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 56.0% | 33.9% | High | 3,516,678 contracts | Refresh |
Will the Citrini scenario happen? Yes refers to: Yes | 21.0% | 21.0% | Med | 25,884,204 contracts | Refresh |
Largest Company end of December 2026? Top outcome: NVIDIA | 67.0% | 62.3% | Med | $5,589,124 | Refresh |
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 63.0% | 68.4% | Med | $6,360,596 | Refresh |
Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 2.0% | 2.5% | High | 77,007 contracts | Refresh |
Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 5.0% | 3.2% | Med | 2,589 contracts | Refresh |
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $1.4 trillion | 36.0% | 39.9% | High | 1,214,645 contracts | Refresh |
How high will US gas prices get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $4.80 | 27.0% | 23.5% | High | 872,055 contracts | Refresh |
Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 9.0% | 13.8% | Med | 2,636,128 contracts | Refresh |
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 89.5% | 93.2% | Med | 31,403,662 contracts | Refresh |
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.2% | 2.5% | High | 202,274 contracts | Refresh |
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Med | 85,351 contracts | Refresh |
Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 37.0% | 32.1% | Med | 159,645 contracts | Refresh |
Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 74.2% | 70.5% | High | 4,170,294 contracts | Refresh |
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 98.0% | 98.0% | High | 71,780 contracts | Refresh |
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.5% | 8.8% | Med | 141,396 contracts | Refresh |
How high will CPI get this year? Top outcome: Above 4.5% | 36.0% | 47.9% | High | 120,863 contracts | Refresh |
How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year? Top outcome: Above 6.6% | 81.0% | 78.6% | High | 78,536 contracts | Refresh |
Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 6.6% | Med | 38,541 contracts | Refresh |
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 9.0% | 5.8% | Med | 300,626 contracts | Refresh |
Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? Yes refers to: For tax year 2026 | 64.0% | 80.5% | Med | 9,293 contracts | Refresh |
How low will gas prices in New York get this year? Top outcome: Below $2.90 | 9.0% | 19.3% | High | 11,143 contracts | Refresh |
How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 4% | 91.3% | 90.0% | High | 492,831 contracts | Refresh |
Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026? Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20% | 25.0% | 43.6% | Med | 1,673 contracts | Refresh |
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0 | 30.0% | 35.4% | High | 19,243 contracts | Refresh |
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? Top outcome: Above $1200 | 5.0% | 10.0% | High | 40,155 contracts | Refresh |
How high will gas prices in Florida get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.50 | 99.0% | 98.8% | High | 70,681 contracts | Refresh |
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 83.0% | 68.9% | High | 34,253 contracts | Refresh |
Highest natural gas spot price in 2026 Top outcome: $7.01 or above | 39.0% | 50.3% | High | 21,812 contracts | Refresh |
How high will gas prices in California get this year? Top outcome: Above $7.40 | 42.0% | 40.2% | High | 57,862 contracts | Refresh |
More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 65.0% | 45.0% | Med | 48,592 contracts | Refresh |
Fed rate cut before 2027? Yes refers to: Cuts | 49.2% | 48.0% | Med | 104,789 contracts | Refresh |
US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026 Top outcome: Above $180 billion | 15.0% | 13.4% | High | 177 contracts | Refresh |
US tariff revenue for 2026 Top outcome: Above $200 billion | 64.0% | 64.8% | Med | 6,834 contracts | Refresh |
How low will gas prices in California get this year? Top outcome: Below $4.10 | 18.0% | 10.5% | High | 28,540 contracts | Refresh |
How high will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.00 | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | 141,030 contracts | Refresh |
How high will gas prices in New York get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.80 | 48.9% | 50.6% | High | 18,379 contracts | Refresh |
State of the economy at the end of 2026 Top outcome: Stagflation | 32.8% | 36.8% | High | 22,031 contracts | Refresh |
How low will US gas prices get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $3.40 | 46.0% | 24.5% | High | 5,115 contracts | Refresh |
US credit rating downgrade in 2026? Yes refers to: Rating reduced | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | 46,129 contracts | Refresh |
U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? Yes refers to: Below 5% | 6.0% | 2.7% | Med | 52,292 contracts | Refresh |
How low will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Below $1.80 | 6.0% | 4.7% | High | 37,343 contracts | Refresh |
Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.5% | Med | 18,623 contracts | Refresh |
Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 18.0% | 20.5% | Med | 3,529 contracts | Refresh |
ADP employment change in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Above -25000 | 97.0% | 95.3% | Med | 1,956 contracts | Refresh |
Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 7.0% | 6.2% | Med | 1,405 contracts | Refresh |
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 42.0% | 21.8% | Med | 65,263 contracts | Refresh |
Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps | 4.0% | 4.7% | High | 936 contracts | Refresh |
How high will unemployment get before 2030? Top outcome: Above 9% | 52.0% | 53.5% | High | 11,384 contracts | Refresh |
Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 11.0% | 13.6% | Med | 18,754 contracts | Refresh |
U.S. oil production per day in 2026 Top outcome: At least 14.40M bpd | 30.0% | 14.7% | High | 657 contracts | Refresh |
How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 27.1% | 36.5% | Med | 333,505 contracts | Refresh |
GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 0.0 or below | 2.5% | 4.9% | High | 64,899 contracts | Refresh |
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 cuts | 90.1% | 80.9% | Med | 67,451 contracts | Refresh |
Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | 55,846 contracts | Refresh |
Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | 136,854 contracts | Refresh |
When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | 408,091 contracts | Refresh |
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 11,680 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 8,154 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 50,782 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 20,857 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 50,744 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | $3,079,008 | ||
| — | — | High | 579,529 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 484,271 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 19,151,113 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 685,036 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 8,378 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,425 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 30,918,453 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,910,220 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 9,530 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 6,558 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 10,704 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 15,447 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,022 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 469,363 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,494 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 62,231 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 336,320 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 34,051 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 84,510 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 20,808 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,540 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 11,962 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 6,328 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,237 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 16,781 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 17,268 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 210,082 contracts | ||
Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 71.2% | Med | 6,993 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 32,553 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,510,550 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 88,100 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 358,456 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 84,040 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 3,620 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 0 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 8,148 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,290 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 8,362 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 9,543 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 27,545 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 7,270 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 19,058 contracts | ||
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | 404,260 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 14,073 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 340,248 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 67,203 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 32,484 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 30,487 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 232,424 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 32,168 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 646,865 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 343,292 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 462,530 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 108,769 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 673,124 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 0 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 235 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 9,410 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 4,026 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 914 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 26,727 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 192 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 4,403 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 4,043 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 82,009 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 4,130 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,996 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 1,830 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 30,043 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 1,068 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 12,336 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,167 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,141 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 5,821 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 52,838 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 21,891 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 24,531 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 13,507 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 28,432 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 39,278 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 15,773 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 85,277 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 23,315 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 10,972 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 11,747 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 408,344 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 784,009 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 2,848 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 555,846 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 36,670 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 791,870 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 650,747 contracts | ||
Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 83.4% | High | 171,344 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 5,719 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 595,061 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 708,794 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 575,935 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 2,781,097 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 1,022,794 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 201,833 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 69,788 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 84,580 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 2,593,605 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 3,417,113 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 242,507 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 395,527 contracts | ||
| — | — | High | 11,022,727 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 11,658,168 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 226,656 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 365,355 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 111,120 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 178,498 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 474,278 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 80,293 contracts | ||
| — | — | Med | 461,265 contracts |