Economics Markets

Active Markets (68)

Event Market Model Conf Volume
US gas prices this week
US gas prices this week
Top outcome: Above 4.1800
99.0% 99.1% High 145,602 contracts Refresh
Diesel prices this week
Diesel prices this week
Top outcome: Above $5.94
68.0% 59.1% High 56,628 contracts Refresh
Diesel prices in Sep 2026
Diesel prices in Sep 2026
Top outcome: Above $6.00
42.0% 58.3% High 34,015 contracts Refresh
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
Top outcome: Hike 25bps
6.0% 6.5% High 2,855 contracts Refresh
7.9% 3.9% High 88,327 contracts Refresh
58.0% 50.1% High 2,125 contracts Refresh
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top outcome: 0 (0 bps)
89.0% 89.6% High $50,421,379 Refresh
2.0% 0.4% High 73,918 contracts Refresh
CPI in September
CPI in September
Top outcome: Above 0.6%
20.0% 10.1% Med 77,661 contracts Refresh
97.0% 93.3% Med 16,275 contracts Refresh
Largest Company end of September?
Largest Company end of September?
Top outcome: NVIDIA
85.0% 80.7% High $101,108 Refresh
Next Fed rate hike?
Next Fed rate hike?
Top outcome: Before 2027
56.0% 33.9% High 3,516,678 contracts Refresh
21.0% 21.0% Med 25,884,204 contracts Refresh
67.0% 62.3% Med $5,589,124 Refresh
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes refers to: Yes
63.0% 68.4% Med $6,360,596 Refresh
Costco raises hot dog combo price?
Costco raises hot dog combo price?
Top outcome: Before 2027
2.0% 2.5% High 77,007 contracts Refresh
5.0% 3.2% Med 2,589 contracts Refresh
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
Top outcome: More than $1.4 trillion
36.0% 39.9% High 1,214,645 contracts Refresh
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Top outcome: Above $4.80
27.0% 23.5% High 872,055 contracts Refresh
Recession this year?
Recession this year?
Yes refers to: Starts
9.0% 13.8% Med 2,636,128 contracts Refresh
89.5% 93.2% Med 31,403,662 contracts Refresh
7.2% 2.5% High 202,274 contracts Refresh
20.0% 13.4% Med 85,351 contracts Refresh
37.0% 32.1% Med 159,645 contracts Refresh
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts
74.2% 70.5% High 4,170,294 contracts Refresh
98.0% 98.0% High 71,780 contracts Refresh
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027
9.5% 8.8% Med 141,396 contracts Refresh
How high will CPI get this year?
How high will CPI get this year?
Top outcome: Above 4.5%
36.0% 47.9% High 120,863 contracts Refresh
81.0% 78.6% High 78,536 contracts Refresh
14.0% 6.6% Med 38,541 contracts Refresh
9.0% 5.8% Med 300,626 contracts Refresh
64.0% 80.5% Med 9,293 contracts Refresh
9.0% 19.3% High 11,143 contracts Refresh
How high will inflation get this year?
How high will inflation get this year?
Top outcome: At least 4%
91.3% 90.0% High 492,831 contracts Refresh
Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026?
Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026?
Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20%
25.0% 43.6% Med 1,673 contracts Refresh
30.0% 35.4% High 19,243 contracts Refresh
5.0% 10.0% High 40,155 contracts Refresh
99.0% 98.8% High 70,681 contracts Refresh
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
Top outcome: Above 3.50%
83.0% 68.9% High 34,253 contracts Refresh
Highest natural gas spot price in​ 2026
Highest natural gas spot price in​ 2026
Top outcome: $7.01 or above
39.0% 50.3% High 21,812 contracts Refresh
42.0% 40.2% High 57,862 contracts Refresh
65.0% 45.0% Med 48,592 contracts Refresh
Fed rate cut before 2027?
Fed rate cut before 2027?
Yes refers to: Cuts
49.2% 48.0% Med 104,789 contracts Refresh
15.0% 13.4% High 177 contracts Refresh
US tariff revenue for 2026
US tariff revenue for 2026
Top outcome: Above $200‎ billion
64.0% 64.8% Med 6,834 contracts Refresh
18.0% 10.5% High 28,540 contracts Refresh
78.0% 75.4% High 141,030 contracts Refresh
48.9% 50.6% High 18,379 contracts Refresh
State of the economy at the end of 2026
State of the economy at the end of 2026
Top outcome: Stagflation
32.8% 36.8% High 22,031 contracts Refresh
How low will US gas prices get in 2026?
How low will US gas prices get in 2026?
Top outcome: Below $3.40
46.0% 24.5% High 5,115 contracts Refresh
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
Yes refers to: Rating reduced
40.0% 40.0% Med 46,129 contracts Refresh
6.0% 2.7% Med 52,292 contracts Refresh
6.0% 4.7% High 37,343 contracts Refresh
13.0% 10.5% Med 18,623 contracts Refresh
18.0% 20.5% Med 3,529 contracts Refresh
ADP employment change in Oct 2026?
ADP employment change in Oct 2026?
Top outcome: Above -25000
97.0% 95.3% Med 1,956 contracts Refresh
7.0% 6.2% Med 1,405 contracts Refresh
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
Top outcome: Above 3.50%
42.0% 21.8% Med 65,263 contracts Refresh
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
Top outcome: Hike >25bps
4.0% 4.7% High 936 contracts Refresh
52.0% 53.5% High 11,384 contracts Refresh
Will Trump bring back manufacturing?
Will Trump bring back manufacturing?
Yes refers to: Before 2029
11.0% 13.6% Med 18,754 contracts Refresh
U.S. oil production per day in 2026
U.S. oil production per day in 2026
Top outcome: At least 14.40M bpd
30.0% 14.7% High 657 contracts Refresh
27.1% 36.5% Med 333,505 contracts Refresh
GDP growth in 2026?
GDP growth in 2026?
Top outcome: 0.0 or below
2.5% 4.9% High 64,899 contracts Refresh
90.1% 80.9% Med 67,451 contracts Refresh
28.0% 24.5% Med 55,846 contracts Refresh
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
Yes refers to: Above 5%
57.0% 59.0% Med 136,854 contracts Refresh
14.0% 50.0% Med 408,091 contracts Refresh
Expired Markets (122)
CPI in June
CPI in June Kalshi
Yes
Market Model
CPI in April
CPI in April Kalshi
Yes
Market Model
Event Market Model Conf Volume
High 11,680 contracts
Med 8,154 contracts
High 50,782 contracts
High 20,857 contracts
High 50,744 contracts
High $3,079,008
High 579,529 contracts
High 484,271 contracts
High 19,151,113 contracts
High 685,036 contracts
High 8,378 contracts
High 5,425 contracts
High 30,918,453 contracts
High 2,910,220 contracts
High 9,530 contracts
High 6,558 contracts
High 10,704 contracts
High 15,447 contracts
High 5,022 contracts
Med 469,363 contracts
High 5,494 contracts
High 62,231 contracts
High 336,320 contracts
High 34,051 contracts
High 84,510 contracts
High 20,808 contracts
High 5,540 contracts
High 11,962 contracts
Med 6,328 contracts
High 5,237 contracts
Med 16,781 contracts
Med 17,268 contracts
High 210,082 contracts
80.0% 71.2% Med 6,993 contracts
High 32,553 contracts
High 2,510,550 contracts
High 88,100 contracts
High 358,456 contracts
Med 84,040 contracts
High 3,620 contracts
High 0 contracts
High 8,148 contracts
High 2,290 contracts
High 8,362 contracts
Med 9,543 contracts
High 27,545 contracts
High 7,270 contracts
High 19,058 contracts
78.0% 75.4% High 404,260 contracts
High 14,073 contracts
High 340,248 contracts
Med 67,203 contracts
High 32,484 contracts
High 30,487 contracts
High 232,424 contracts
High 32,168 contracts
High 646,865 contracts
Med 343,292 contracts
High 462,530 contracts
High 108,769 contracts
High 673,124 contracts
High 0 contracts
High 235 contracts
High 9,410 contracts
Med 4,026 contracts
Med 914 contracts
High 26,727 contracts
High 192 contracts
High 4,403 contracts
High 4,043 contracts
Med 82,009 contracts
High 4,130 contracts
High 2,996 contracts
Med 1,830 contracts
High 30,043 contracts
High 1,068 contracts
High 12,336 contracts
High 5,167 contracts
High 2,141 contracts
High 5,821 contracts
Med 52,838 contracts
High 21,891 contracts
High 24,531 contracts
High 13,507 contracts
High 28,432 contracts
High 39,278 contracts
High 15,773 contracts
High 85,277 contracts
Med 23,315 contracts
Med 10,972 contracts
High 11,747 contracts
High 2 contracts
High 408,344 contracts
High 784,009 contracts
High 2,848 contracts
High 555,846 contracts
Med 36,670 contracts
High 791,870 contracts
High 650,747 contracts
88.0% 83.4% High 171,344 contracts
Med 5,719 contracts
High 595,061 contracts
High 708,794 contracts
Med 575,935 contracts
Med 2,781,097 contracts
High 1,022,794 contracts
Med 201,833 contracts
Med 69,788 contracts
Med 84,580 contracts
Med 2,593,605 contracts
Med 3,417,113 contracts
Med 242,507 contracts
Med 395,527 contracts
High 11,022,727 contracts
Med 11,658,168 contracts
Med 226,656 contracts
Med 365,355 contracts
Med 111,120 contracts
Med 178,498 contracts
Med 474,278 contracts
Med 80,293 contracts
Med 461,265 contracts