Economics Markets

Active Markets (78)

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026 Kalshi

Above 0

Market Model 43.0% 43.2%

Above -100,000

Market Model 70.0% 69.9%

3.4K contracts Refresh

US retail jobs added this holiday season Kalshi

Above 600,000 jobs

Market Model 18.0% 6.9%

Above 550,000 jobs

Market Model 23.0% 14.2%

32.7K contracts Refresh

Avocado advertised prices this week Kalshi

Above $0.90

Market Model 88.0% 86.5%

Above $1.10

Market Model 50.0% 43.4%

2.2K contracts Refresh

US refinery utilization in November Kalshi

Above 92%

Market Model 96.0% 95.4%

Above 94%

Market Model 61.0% 47.2%

16.7K contracts Refresh

Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026 Kalshi

Above $6.2000

Market Model 94.0% 89.1%

Above $6.0000

Market Model 87.0% 89.1%

29.9K contracts Refresh

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta? Kalshi

Marc Sumerlin

Market Model 13.0% 12.5%

Rebecca Patterson

Market Model 13.0% 13.5%

24.5K contracts Refresh

Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi

Maintains rate

Market Model 31.0% 32.6%

Hike 25bps

Market Model 61.0% 64.2%

349.5K contracts Refresh

McDonald's Big Mac price in October Kalshi

At least $6.09

Market Model 81.0% 68.7%

At least $6.10

Market Model 67.0% 50.9%

5.1K contracts Refresh

Unemployment in November Kalshi

Above 4.1%

Market Model 66.0% 68.3%

Above 4.3%

Market Model 66.0% 62.1%

17.6K contracts Refresh

Unemployment in October Kalshi

Above 4.1%

Market Model 65.0% 76.9%

Above 4.5%

Market Model 3.0% 0.7%

131.2K contracts Refresh

Diesel prices in Oct 2026 Kalshi

Above $7.50

Market Model 13.0% 16.9%

Above $6.30

Market Model 89.0% 91.7%

366.9K contracts Refresh

New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.8000

Market Model 97.0% 97.2%

Above 4.6000

Market Model 89.0% 90.7%

8.4K contracts Refresh

Nebraska corn yield in 2026 Kalshi

Above 190 bu/acre

Market Model 32.0% 30.0%

Above 185 bu/acre

Market Model 62.0% 76.3%

117.4K contracts Refresh

Poland rate decision in November Kalshi

Maintain current rate

Market Model 67.0% 68.4%

Cut more than 25bps

Market Model 2.0% 1.5%

7.2K contracts Refresh

Disneyland ticket price at year-end 2026 Kalshi

Above $224

Market Model 25.0% 2.0%

Above $228

Market Model 10.0% 1.6%

15.1K contracts Refresh

Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Market Model 83.0% 88.6%

Hike 25bps

Market Model 19.0% 8.6%

7.6M contracts Refresh

Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in October? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 9.8%

8.3K contracts Refresh

Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 6.0% 3.8%

151.0K contracts Refresh

Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Kalshi

Above 3.9%

Market Model 15.0% 11.8%

Above 4.1%

Market Model 4.0% 1.8%

123.8K contracts Refresh

CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026? Kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

Market Model 99.0% 98.1%

Exactly 0.0%

Market Model 1.0% 1.2%

3.3K contracts Refresh

Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi

Maintains rate

Market Model 52.0% 56.0%

Cut 25bps

Market Model 31.0% 27.7%

6.3K contracts Refresh

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket

No change

Market Model 53.0% 64.4%

25 bps increase

Market Model 47.0% 34.2%

$5.9M Refresh

How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Kalshi

At least 250 billion

Market Model 7.9% 3.9%

At least 1 trillion

Market Model 4.8% 3.9%

88.3K contracts Refresh

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket

0 (0 bps)

Market Model 89.0% 89.6%

11 (275 bps)

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

$50.4M Refresh

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026? Kalshi

Above 94,000 MW

Market Model 2.0% 0.4%

Above 92,000 MW

Market Model 12.0% 13.7%

73.9K contracts Refresh

Will the Citrini scenario happen? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 21.0%

25.9M contracts Refresh

Largest Company end of December 2026? Polymarket

NVIDIA

Market Model 67.0% 62.3%

Apple

Market Model 16.2% 15.6%

$5.6M Refresh

Costco raises hot dog combo price? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 4.0% 2.5%

Before 2028

Market Model 10.0% 5.5%

79.2K contracts Refresh

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.0% 3.2%

2.6K contracts Refresh

How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Kalshi

More than $1.4 trillion

Market Model 36.0% 39.9%

More than $2 trillion

Market Model 7.0% 4.0%

1.2M contracts Refresh

How high will US gas prices get in 2026? Kalshi

Above $4.80

Market Model 27.0% 23.5%

Above $5.00

Market Model 22.0% 19.3%

872.1K contracts Refresh

Recession this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 13.8%

2.6M contracts Refresh

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 89.5% 93.2%

31.4M contracts Refresh

How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Kalshi

At least 250 billion

Market Model 7.2% 2.5%

At least 500 billion

Market Model 5.2% 2.2%

202.3K contracts Refresh

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 20.0% 13.4%

85.4K contracts Refresh

Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Kalshi

United Kingdom

Market Model 37.0% 32.1%

China

Market Model 7.7% 3.0%

159.6K contracts Refresh

Number of rate cuts in 2026? Kalshi

Exactly 0 cuts

Market Model 74.2% 70.5%

Exactly 1 cut

Market Model 21.6% 14.5%

4.2M contracts Refresh

Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Kalshi

$40 trillion

Market Model 98.0% 98.0%

$50 trillion

Market Model 44.0% 42.1%

71.8K contracts Refresh

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.5% 8.8%

141.4K contracts Refresh

How high will CPI get this year? Kalshi

Above 4.5%

Market Model 36.0% 47.9%

Above 4.4%

Market Model 59.0% 60.1%

120.9K contracts Refresh

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year? Kalshi

Above 6.6%

Market Model 81.0% 78.6%

Above 7.0%

Market Model 27.0% 29.8%

78.5K contracts Refresh

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 6.6%

38.5K contracts Refresh

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 5.8%

300.6K contracts Refresh

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 64.0% 80.5%

9.3K contracts Refresh

How low will gas prices in New York get this year? Kalshi

Below $2.90

Market Model 9.0% 19.3%

Below $2.80

Market Model 8.0% 16.1%

11.1K contracts Refresh

How high will inflation get this year? Kalshi

At least 4%

Market Model 91.3% 90.0%

At least 3.5%

Market Model 99.1% 98.9%

492.8K contracts Refresh

Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 25.0% 43.6%

1.7K contracts Refresh

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Kalshi

Exactly 0

Market Model 30.0% 35.4%

Exactly 1

Market Model 32.2% 33.0%

19.2K contracts Refresh

How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? Kalshi

Above $1200

Market Model 5.0% 10.0%

Above $1000

Market Model 78.0% 83.8%

40.2K contracts Refresh

How high will gas prices in Florida get this year? Kalshi

Above $4.50

Market Model 99.0% 98.8%

Above $4.70

Market Model 62.0% 59.1%

70.7K contracts Refresh

Highest natural gas spot price in 2026 Kalshi

$7.01 or above

Market Model 39.0% 50.3%

$6.01 or above

Market Model 62.0% 71.2%

21.8K contracts Refresh

How high will gas prices in California get this year? Kalshi

Above $7.40

Market Model 42.0% 40.2%

Above $7.60

Market Model 26.0% 27.5%

57.9K contracts Refresh

More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 65.0% 45.0%

48.6K contracts Refresh

Fed rate cut before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 49.2% 48.0%

104.8K contracts Refresh

US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026 Kalshi

Above $180 billion

Market Model 15.0% 13.4%

Above $190 billion

Market Model 16.0% 13.4%

177 contracts Refresh

US tariff revenue for 2026 Kalshi

Above $200‎ billion

Market Model 64.0% 64.8%

Above $250‎ billion

Market Model 43.0% 45.1%

6.8K contracts Refresh

How low will gas prices in California get this year? Kalshi

Below $4.10

Market Model 18.0% 10.5%

Below $4.00

Market Model 13.0% 9.3%

28.5K contracts Refresh

How high will gas prices in Texas get this year? Kalshi

Above $4.00

Market Model 78.0% 75.4%

Above $4.40

Market Model 41.0% 39.3%

141.0K contracts Refresh

How high will gas prices in New York get this year? Kalshi

Above $4.80

Market Model 48.9% 50.6%

Above $5.00

Market Model 42.5% 44.6%

18.4K contracts Refresh

State of the economy at the end of 2026 Kalshi

Stagflation

Market Model 32.8% 36.8%

Soft landing

Market Model 16.9% 29.9%

22.0K contracts Refresh

How low will US gas prices get in 2026? Kalshi

Below $3.40

Market Model 46.0% 24.5%

Below $3.00

Market Model 34.0% 16.9%

5.1K contracts Refresh

US credit rating downgrade in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 40.0% 40.0%

46.1K contracts Refresh

How low will gas prices in Texas get this year? Kalshi

Below $1.80

Market Model 6.0% 4.7%

Below $2.30

Market Model 28.0% 23.1%

37.3K contracts Refresh

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 10.5%

18.6K contracts Refresh

Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 18.0% 20.5%

3.5K contracts Refresh

ADP employment change in Oct 2026? Kalshi

Above -25000

Market Model 97.0% 95.3%

Above 50000

Market Model 52.0% 41.6%

2.0K contracts Refresh

Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 6.2%

1.4K contracts Refresh

Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Kalshi

Above 3.50%

Market Model 42.0% 21.8%

Above 3.25%

Market Model 54.0% 30.5%

65.3K contracts Refresh

Fed decision in Sep 2027? Kalshi

Hike >25bps

Market Model 4.0% 4.7%

Cut 25bps

Market Model 16.0% 12.3%

936 contracts Refresh

How high will unemployment get before 2030? Kalshi

Above 9%

Market Model 52.0% 53.5%

Above 10%

Market Model 35.0% 37.5%

11.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 13.6%

18.8K contracts Refresh

U.S. oil production per day in 2026 Kalshi

At least 14.40M bpd

Market Model 30.0% 14.7%

At least 14.10M bpd

Market Model 63.0% 38.4%

657 contracts Refresh

How high will unemployment get in 2026? Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 27.1% 36.5%

Above 6%

Market Model 8.6% 17.0%

333.5K contracts Refresh

GDP growth in 2026? Kalshi

0.0 or below

Market Model 2.5% 4.9%

4.6 to 5.0

Market Model 1.0% 3.5%

64.9K contracts Refresh

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Kalshi

0 cuts

Market Model 90.1% 80.9%

1 cuts

Market Model 8.2% 11.1%

67.5K contracts Refresh

Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 28.0% 24.5%

55.8K contracts Refresh

Will there be a Trump economic boom? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 57.0% 59.0%

136.9K contracts Refresh

When will the next US recession start? Kalshi

Q1 2026

Market Model 14.0% 50.0%

Q4 2025

Market Model 9.0% 30.0%

408.1K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026 Top outcome: Above 0	43.0%	43.2%	High	64	Refresh
US retail jobs added this holiday season Top outcome: Above 600,000 jobs	18.0%	6.9%	High	69	Refresh
Avocado advertised prices this week Top outcome: Above $0.90	88.0%	86.5%	High	74	Refresh
US refinery utilization in November Top outcome: Above 92%	96.0%	95.4%	High	63	Refresh
Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026 Top outcome: Above $6.2000	94.0%	89.1%	High	74	Refresh
Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta? Top outcome: Marc Sumerlin	13.0%	12.5%	High	65	Refresh
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Maintains rate	31.0%	32.6%	High	82	Refresh
McDonald's Big Mac price in October Top outcome: At least $6.09	81.0%	68.7%	High	67	Refresh
Unemployment in November Top outcome: Above 4.1%	66.0%	68.3%	High	59	Refresh
Unemployment in October Top outcome: Above 4.1%	65.0%	76.9%	High	72	Refresh
Diesel prices in Oct 2026 Top outcome: Above $7.50	13.0%	16.9%	High	75	Refresh
New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.8000	97.0%	97.2%	High	66	Refresh
Nebraska corn yield in 2026 Top outcome: Above 190 bu/acre	32.0%	30.0%	High	81	Refresh
Poland rate decision in November Top outcome: Maintain current rate	67.0%	68.4%	High	67	Refresh
Disneyland ticket price at year-end 2026 Top outcome: Above $224	25.0%	2.0%	High	66	Refresh
Fed decision in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate	83.0%	88.6%	High	74	Refresh
Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in October? Yes refers to: AI #1?	15.0%	9.8%	Med	76	Refresh
Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026? Yes refers to: In Dec 2026	6.0%	3.8%	Med	69	Refresh
Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 3.9%	15.0%	11.8%	Med	66	Refresh
CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.3%	99.0%	98.1%	High	66	Refresh
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026? Top outcome: Maintains rate	52.0%	56.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Fed Decision in October? Top outcome: No change	53.0%	64.4%	High	30	Refresh
How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion	7.9%	3.9%	High	66	Refresh
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps)	89.0%	89.6%	High	59	Refresh
How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 94,000 MW	2.0%	0.4%	High	71	Refresh
Will the Citrini scenario happen? Yes refers to: Yes	21.0%	21.0%	Med	67	Refresh
Largest Company end of December 2026? Top outcome: NVIDIA	67.0%	62.3%	Med	71	Refresh
Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027	4.0%	2.5%	High	68	Refresh
Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? Yes refers to: Before 2029	5.0%	3.2%	Med	83	Refresh
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $1.4 trillion	36.0%	39.9%	High	72	Refresh
How high will US gas prices get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $4.80	27.0%	23.5%	High	75	Refresh
Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts	9.0%	13.8%	Med	60	Refresh
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes	89.5%	93.2%	Med	81	Refresh
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion	7.2%	2.5%	High	74	Refresh
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030	20.0%	13.4%	Med	60	Refresh
Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom	37.0%	32.1%	Med	64	Refresh
Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts	74.2%	70.5%	High	73	Refresh
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion	98.0%	98.0%	High	70	Refresh
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	9.5%	8.8%	Med	67	Refresh
How high will CPI get this year? Top outcome: Above 4.5%	36.0%	47.9%	High	64	Refresh
How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year? Top outcome: Above 6.6%	81.0%	78.6%	High	75	Refresh
Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	14.0%	6.6%	Med	69	Refresh
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026	9.0%	5.8%	Med	57	Refresh
Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? Yes refers to: For tax year 2026	64.0%	80.5%	Med	74	Refresh
How low will gas prices in New York get this year? Top outcome: Below $2.90	9.0%	19.3%	High	68	Refresh
How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 4%	91.3%	90.0%	High	66	Refresh
Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026? Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20%	25.0%	43.6%	Med	68	Refresh
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0	30.0%	35.4%	High	75	Refresh
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? Top outcome: Above $1200	5.0%	10.0%	High	64	Refresh
How high will gas prices in Florida get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.50	99.0%	98.8%	High	67	Refresh
Highest natural gas spot price in 2026 Top outcome: $7.01 or above	39.0%	50.3%	High	65	Refresh
How high will gas prices in California get this year? Top outcome: Above $7.40	42.0%	40.2%	High	72	Refresh
More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes	65.0%	45.0%	Med	79	Refresh
Fed rate cut before 2027? Yes refers to: Cuts	49.2%	48.0%	Med	65	Refresh
US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026 Top outcome: Above $180 billion	15.0%	13.4%	High	70	Refresh
US tariff revenue for 2026 Top outcome: Above $200‎ billion	64.0%	64.8%	Med	73	Refresh
How low will gas prices in California get this year? Top outcome: Below $4.10	18.0%	10.5%	High	70	Refresh
How high will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.00	78.0%	75.4%	High	72	Refresh
How high will gas prices in New York get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.80	48.9%	50.6%	High	77	Refresh
State of the economy at the end of 2026 Top outcome: Stagflation	32.8%	36.8%	High	70	Refresh
How low will US gas prices get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $3.40	46.0%	24.5%	High	75	Refresh
US credit rating downgrade in 2026? Yes refers to: Rating reduced	40.0%	40.0%	Med	71	Refresh
How low will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Below $1.80	6.0%	4.7%	High	62	Refresh
Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	13.0%	10.5%	Med	58	Refresh
Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	18.0%	20.5%	Med	66	Refresh
ADP employment change in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Above -25000	97.0%	95.3%	Med	65	Refresh
Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	7.0%	6.2%	Med	66	Refresh
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50%	42.0%	21.8%	Med	56	Refresh
Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps	4.0%	4.7%	High	60	Refresh
How high will unemployment get before 2030? Top outcome: Above 9%	52.0%	53.5%	High	60	Refresh
Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029	11.0%	13.6%	Med	67	Refresh
U.S. oil production per day in 2026 Top outcome: At least 14.40M bpd	30.0%	14.7%	High	75	Refresh
How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5%	27.1%	36.5%	Med	59	Refresh
GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 0.0 or below	2.5%	4.9%	High	64	Refresh
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 cuts	90.1%	80.9%	Med	70	Refresh
Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	28.0%	24.5%	Med	76	Refresh
Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5%	57.0%	59.0%	Med	71	Refresh
When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026	14.0%	50.0%	Med	71	Refresh

Expired Markets (146)

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

162.5K contracts

30-year mortgage rate this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

88.8K contracts

Diesel prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

66.9K contracts

Will Canada inflation be above Euro Area inflation in September? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.5K contracts

SOFR for October 2, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.5K contracts

Diesel prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

86.6K contracts

Mexico unemployment rate in September Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.2K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

178.6K contracts

Alaska diesel prices in Sep 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

17.8K contracts

Colombia rate decision in September Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.5K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

778.7K contracts

New Jersey gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

15.0K contracts

PPI YoY in September Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.4K contracts

California gas prices tomorrow Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.6K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

145.6K contracts

Diesel prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

56.6K contracts

Diesel prices in Sep 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

34.0K contracts

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in October Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.1K contracts

US existing home sales for August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.7K contracts

EV commodity prices on Aug 27, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.2K contracts

EV commodity prices on Aug 26, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

50.8K contracts

US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

20.9K contracts

CPI in September Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

77.7K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

50.7K contracts

Largest Company end of September? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$101.1K

Next Fed rate hike? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 56.0% 33.9%

Before July 2027

Market Model 72.0% 54.2%

3.5M contracts

Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.1M

Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 63.0% 68.4%

$6.4M

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

579.5K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

484.3K contracts

Fed decision in Jul 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.2M contracts

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

685.0K contracts

Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.4K contracts

UK retail sales in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.4K contracts

Fed decision in Jun 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

30.9M contracts

Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.9M contracts

Fed median dot plot in June 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.5K contracts

US retail sales in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

6.6K contracts

PPI YoY in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.7K contracts

EV commodity prices on Jun 12, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

15.4K contracts

South Africa inflation rate MoM for May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.0K contracts

CPI core month-over-month in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

469.4K contracts

US electricity price in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.5K contracts

Bank of Canada decision in Jun 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

62.2K contracts

US gasoline CPI for May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

336.3K contracts

US consumer confidence on Jun 9, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

34.1K contracts

Will the Samsung Electronics labor union go on strike? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

84.5K contracts

US airline fares CPI for May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

20.8K contracts

Argentina inflation rate MoM for May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.5K contracts

South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

12.0K contracts

US existing home sales for May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

6.3K contracts

Germany balance of trade for April 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.2K contracts

Bitcoin purchasing power on Jun 8, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.8K contracts

US gas prices on Jun 3, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

17.3K contracts

How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

210.1K contracts

Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 80.0% 71.2%

7.0K contracts

US housing starts for May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

32.6K contracts

Gas prices in the US in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.5M contracts

Unemployment in May 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

88.1K contracts

Inflation in May 2026 (CPI YoY) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

358.5K contracts

Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

84.0K contracts

Brazil unemployment rate in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.6K contracts

Deadlift index on May 12, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.1K contracts

Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.3K contracts

US housing starts for April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.4K contracts

CPI in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.5K contracts

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27.5K contracts

CPI month-over-month in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.3K contracts

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

34.3K contracts

CPI in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.1K contracts

When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 78.0% 75.4%

Before 2028

Market Model 88.0% 86.3%

404.3K contracts

US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 5/8 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.1K contracts

CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

340.2K contracts

Core inflation in Apr 2026 (Core CPI YoY) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

67.2K contracts

US nonfarm payrolls for April 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

32.5K contracts

USD/IRR on May 29, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

30.5K contracts

Unemployment in April 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

232.4K contracts

US gas prices on May 8, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

32.2K contracts

Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

646.9K contracts

Jobs numbers in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

343.3K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

462.5K contracts

CPI core in Apr 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

108.8K contracts

CPI in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

673.1K contracts

Price of a dozen eggs on May 4, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

UK unemployment rate for March 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

235 contracts

US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.4K contracts

Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.0K contracts

Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

914 contracts

US government debt on April 30, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.7K contracts

CPI core in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

192 contracts

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.4K contracts

Bank of Russia rate decision in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.0K contracts

Will 32BJ SEIU NYC residential building workers strike before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

82.0K contracts

US personal spending MoM for March 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.1K contracts

Brazil inflation rate in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.0K contracts

Bank of Israel rate decision in July Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.8K contracts

US housing starts for March 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

30.0K contracts

TSA avg check-ins from Apr 27 to May 3, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.1K contracts

Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

12.3K contracts

US shelter CPI in April 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.2K contracts

Japan inflation rate MoM for April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.1K contracts

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

52.3K contracts

Bank of England rate decision in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.8K contracts

Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

52.8K contracts

USD/IRR on April 30, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

21.9K contracts

Elon Musk net worth on April 30 (Bloomberg) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

24.5K contracts

Jet fuel prices for the week ending April 24, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.5K contracts

Bank of Mexico rate decision in May Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

28.4K contracts

European Central Bank rate decision in April Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

39.3K contracts

Bank of Japan rate decision in June Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

15.8K contracts

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

85.3K contracts

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

23.3K contracts

US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.0K contracts

Airport passengers on Apr 28, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.7K contracts

Truflation EV Commodity Index for April 22, 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2 contracts

CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

408.3K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

784.0K contracts

ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.8K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

555.8K contracts

Egg prices up in March 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

36.7K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

791.9K contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

650.7K contracts

Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Kalshi

Elon Musk

Market Model 88.0% 83.4%

Jensen Huang

Market Model 4.0% 3.4%

171.3K contracts

Tech layoffs up in February 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.7K contracts

CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

595.1K contracts

CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

708.8K contracts

Inflation in Mar 2026 (CPI YoY) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

575.9K contracts

Gas prices in the US in Mar 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.8M contracts

CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.0M contracts

Fed decision in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

201.8K contracts

CPI in Feb 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

69.8K contracts

How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

84.6K contracts

GDP growth in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.6M contracts

US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.4M contracts

US gas prices this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

242.5K contracts

Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

395.5K contracts

Fed decision in Mar 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.0M contracts

How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.7M contracts

Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

226.7K contracts

How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

365.4K contracts

US Gas prices up this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

111.1K contracts

How much will US debt increase in 2025? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

178.5K contracts

Unemployment in January 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

474.3K contracts

Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

80.3K contracts

More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

461.3K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	83
30-year mortgage rate this week	—	—	High	75
Diesel prices this week	—	—	High	80
Will Canada inflation be above Euro Area inflation in September?	—	—	Med	66
SOFR for October 2, 2026	—	—	High	62
Diesel prices this week	—	—	High	78
Mexico unemployment rate in September	—	—	High	63
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	84
Alaska diesel prices in Sep 2026	—	—	High	82
Colombia rate decision in September	—	—	High	77
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	84
New Jersey gas prices this week	—	—	High	72
PPI YoY in September	—	—	High	73
California gas prices tomorrow	—	—	High	70
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	82
Diesel prices this week	—	—	High	75
Diesel prices in Sep 2026	—	—	High	77
Reserve Bank of India rate decision in October	—	—	High	77
US existing home sales for August	—	—	High	—
EV commodity prices on Aug 27, 2026	—	—	Med	—
EV commodity prices on Aug 26, 2026	—	—	High	—
US SPR level for the week ending August 21, 2026	—	—	High	—
CPI in September	—	—	Med	72
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
Largest Company end of September?	—	—	High	74
Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027	56.0%	33.9%	High	—
Fed rate cut by...?	—	—	High	—
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	63.0%	68.4%	Med	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
Fed decision in Jul 2026?	—	—	High	—
Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)	—	—	High	—
Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
UK retail sales in May	—	—	High	—
Fed decision in Jun 2026?	—	—	High	—
Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting?	—	—	High	—
Fed median dot plot in June 2026	—	—	High	—
US retail sales in May	—	—	High	—
PPI YoY in June	—	—	High	—
EV commodity prices on Jun 12, 2026	—	—	High	—
South Africa inflation rate MoM for May	—	—	High	—
CPI core month-over-month in May 2026?	—	—	Med	—
US electricity price in May	—	—	High	—
Bank of Canada decision in Jun 2026?	—	—	High	—
US gasoline CPI for May	—	—	High	—
US consumer confidence on Jun 9, 2026	—	—	High	—
Will the Samsung Electronics labor union go on strike?	—	—	High	—
US airline fares CPI for May	—	—	High	—
Argentina inflation rate MoM for May	—	—	High	—
South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
US existing home sales for May	—	—	Med	—
Germany balance of trade for April 2026	—	—	High	—
Bitcoin purchasing power on Jun 8, 2026	—	—	Med	—
US gas prices on Jun 3, 2026	—	—	Med	—
How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	80.0%	71.2%	Med	—
US housing starts for May	—	—	High	—
Gas prices in the US in May 2026?	—	—	High	—
Unemployment in May 2026	—	—	High	—
Inflation in May 2026 (CPI YoY)	—	—	High	—
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?	—	—	Med	—
Brazil unemployment rate in April	—	—	High	—
Deadlift index on May 12, 2026	—	—	High	—
TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026?	—	—	High	—
Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, 2026	—	—	High	—
US housing starts for April	—	—	High	—
CPI in August	—	—	Med	68
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?	—	—	High	—
CPI month-over-month in May 2026?	—	—	High	—
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?	—	—	High	71
CPI in June	—	—	High	—
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027	78.0%	75.4%	High	—
US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 5/8	—	—	High	—
CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Core inflation in Apr 2026 (Core CPI YoY)	—	—	Med	—
US nonfarm payrolls for April 2026	—	—	High	—
USD/IRR on May 29, 2026	—	—	High	—
Unemployment in April 2026	—	—	High	—
US gas prices on May 8, 2026	—	—	High	—
Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)	—	—	High	—
Jobs numbers in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
CPI core in Apr 2026	—	—	High	—
CPI in April	—	—	High	—
Price of a dozen eggs on May 4, 2026	—	—	High	—
UK unemployment rate for March 2026	—	—	High	—
US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026	—	—	Med	—
Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026	—	—	Med	—
US government debt on April 30, 2026	—	—	High	—
CPI core in June	—	—	High	—
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in May	—	—	High	—
Bank of Russia rate decision in June	—	—	High	—
Will 32BJ SEIU NYC residential building workers strike before May?	—	—	Med	—
US personal spending MoM for March 2026	—	—	High	—
Brazil inflation rate in April	—	—	High	—
Bank of Israel rate decision in July	—	—	Med	—
US housing starts for March 2026	—	—	High	—
TSA avg check-ins from Apr 27 to May 3, 2026?	—	—	High	—
Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY)	—	—	High	—
US shelter CPI in April 2026	—	—	High	—
Japan inflation rate MoM for April	—	—	High	—
U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?	—	—	Med	59
Bank of England rate decision in April	—	—	High	—
Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in April	—	—	Med	—
USD/IRR on April 30, 2026	—	—	High	—
Elon Musk net worth on April 30 (Bloomberg)	—	—	High	—
Jet fuel prices for the week ending April 24, 2026	—	—	High	—
Bank of Mexico rate decision in May	—	—	High	—
European Central Bank rate decision in April	—	—	High	—
Bank of Japan rate decision in June	—	—	High	—
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?	—	—	High	—
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026	—	—	Med	—
US gas prices on Apr 29, 2026	—	—	Med	—
Airport passengers on Apr 28, 2026	—	—	High	—
Truflation EV Commodity Index for April 22, 2026	—	—	High	—
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026	—	—	High	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
Egg prices up in March 2026?	—	—	Med	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	High	—
Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk	88.0%	83.4%	High	—
Tech layoffs up in February 2026?	—	—	Med	—
CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?	—	—	High	—
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?	—	—	High	—
Inflation in Mar 2026 (CPI YoY)	—	—	Med	—
Gas prices in the US in Mar 2026?	—	—	Med	—
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?	—	—	High	—
Fed decision in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
CPI in Feb 2026?	—	—	Med	—
How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025?	—	—	Med	—
GDP growth in 2025?	—	—	Med	—
US GDP growth in Q4 2025?	—	—	Med	—
US gas prices this week	—	—	Med	—
Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Fed decision in Mar 2026?	—	—	High	—
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?	—	—	Med	—
Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting?	—	—	Med	—
How much will the government increase spending in 2025?	—	—	Med	—
US Gas prices up this week?	—	—	Med	—
How much will US debt increase in 2025?	—	—	Med	—
Unemployment in January 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Unemployment rate in Jan 2026?	—	—	Med	—
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?	—	—	Med	—

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