2026 U.S. Midterms · Nov 3, 2026

2026 Midterm Election Tracker

Name: 2026 U.S. Midterm Election Odds
Creator: Octagon

Odds and model probabilities as of 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

Live prediction-market odds for every Senate and Governor race and the balance of power in Congress — each race enriched with an Octagon research report, model probability, and the latest midterms news. Sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

0 days until Election Day Tuesday, November 3, 2026

187races tracked

34Senate races

36Governor races

Nov 11, 2026research updated

The Battleground Map

Live odds on 34 Senate races and 36 governorships. Republicans lead 28, Democrats 35 — and 7 are still toss-ups. 26 states are voting for both; those are split diagonally.

Democratic Republican Independent Toss-up / uncalled No race in 2026 Senate / Governor

VT G 80%
NH S 89% G 94%
MA S 98% G 97%
RI S 99% G 96%
CT G 97%
NJ S 96%
DE S 99%
MD G 97%
DC —

Balance of Power

Who controls Congress after the midterms.

Bar = market price tick = Octagon model

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi

Democrats sweep 66% Octagon 67%
D-House, R-Senate 29% Octagon 27%
Republicans sweep 8% Octagon 6%

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? odds → Vol $66.7M

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi

Democratic Party 83% Octagon 85%
Republican Party 17% Octagon 15%

Which party will win the U.S. House? odds → Vol $20.3M

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket

R Senate, D House 41% Octagon 50%
Democrats Sweep 46% Octagon 39%
Republicans Sweep 13% Octagon 9%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms odds → Vol $9.5M

Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket

Democratic Party 87% Octagon 88%
Republican Party 14% Octagon 12%
Party A 0%

Which party will win the House in 2026? odds → Vol $9.1M

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi

Above 52 46% Octagon 38%
52 19% Octagon 18%
48 4% Octagon 3%

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? odds → Vol $8.7M

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi

Below 193 51% Octagon 54%
193-197 13% Octagon 15%
198-202 13% Octagon 13%

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? odds → Vol $6.4M

Senate Races

Every 2026 U.S. Senate race, toss-ups first.

Bar = market price tick = Octagon model

Maine Senate 2026

Jackson vs Collins Octagon: Democratic favored

Toss-up Kalshi

Troy Jackson 65% Octagon 61%
Susan Collins 36% Octagon 39%

Polymarket Troy Jackson (D) · 69% Vol $1.1M

Maine Senate 2026 odds → Vol $9.7M

Ohio Senate 2026

Brown vs Husted Octagon: Democratic favored

Toss-up Kalshi

Sherrod Brown 71% Octagon 63%
Jon Husted 30% Octagon 37%

Ohio Senate 2026 odds → Vol $8.1M

Iowa Senate 2026

Hinson vs Turek Octagon: Republican favored

Toss-up Kalshi

Ashley Hinson 59% Octagon 54%
Josh Turek 42% Octagon 46%

Polymarket Ashley Hinson (R) · 60% Vol $206K

Iowa Senate 2026 odds → Vol $5.8M

Kansas Senate 2026

Marshall vs Hamilton Octagon: Republican favored

Toss-up Kalshi

Roger Marshall 62% Octagon 58%
Adam Hamilton 39% Octagon 42%

Kansas Senate 2026 odds → Vol $4.2M

Texas Senate 2026

Talarico vs Paxton Octagon: Democratic favored

Lean Kalshi

James Talarico 68% Octagon 67%
Ken Paxton 33% Octagon 33%

Polymarket James Talarico (D) · 50% Vol $668K

Texas Senate 2026 odds → Vol $34.9M

South Carolina Senate 2026

Graham vs Andrews Octagon: Republican favored

Lean Kalshi

Darline Graham 82% Octagon 76%
Annie Andrews 19% Octagon 24%

South Carolina Senate 2026 odds → Vol $4.0M

Michigan Senate 2026

El-Sayed vs Rogers Octagon: Democratic favored

Lean Kalshi

Abdul El-Sayed 74% Octagon 73%
Mike Rogers 27% Octagon 27%

Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed (D) · 59% Vol $468K

Michigan Senate 2026 odds → Vol $3.2M

Nebraska Senate 2026

Ricketts vs Osborn Octagon: Republican favored

Lean Kalshi

Pete Ricketts 73% Octagon 77%
Dan Osborn 27% Octagon 23%

Nebraska Senate 2026 odds → Vol $3.0M

Alaska Senate 2026

Octagon: Democratic favored

Lean Kalshi

Democratic party 74% Octagon 70%
Republican party 26% Octagon 30%

Polymarket Mary Peltola · 63% Vol $470K

Alaska Senate 2026 odds → Vol $3.0M

North Carolina Senate 2026

Cooper vs Whatley Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Roy Cooper 96% Octagon 97%
Michael Whatley 4% Octagon 3%

North Carolina Senate 2026 odds → Vol $3.6M

Minnesota Senate 2026

Flanagan vs Tafoya Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Peggy Flanagan 86% Octagon 85%
Michele Tafoya 15% Octagon 15%

Minnesota Senate 2026 odds → Vol $3.2M

New Hampshire Senate 2026

Pappas vs Sununu Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Chris Pappas 89% Octagon 89%
John E. Sununu 12% Octagon 11%

New Hampshire Senate 2026 odds → Vol $2.2M

Georgia Senate 2026

Ossoff vs Collins Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Jon Ossoff 96% Octagon 97%
Mike Collins 6% Octagon 3%

Georgia Senate 2026 odds → Vol $2.1M

Florida Senate 2026

Moody vs Nixon Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Ashley Moody 89% Octagon 90%
Angie Nixon 12% Octagon 10%

Florida Senate 2026 odds → Vol $1.7M

Montana Senate 2026

Alme vs Bodnar Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Kurt Alme 92% Octagon 93%
Seth Bodnar 8% Octagon 7%

Montana Senate 2026 odds → Vol $961K

Mississippi Senate 2026

Hyde-Smith vs Colom Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Cindy Hyde-Smith 89% Octagon 89%
Scott Colom 10% Octagon 11%

Mississippi Senate 2026 odds → Vol $667K

Idaho Senate 2026

Risch vs Achilles Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Jim Risch 84% Octagon 88%
Todd Achilles 11% Octagon 12%

Idaho Senate 2026 odds → Vol $636K

Tennessee Senate 2026

Hagerty vs Bradshaw Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Bill Hagerty 96% Octagon 98%
Marquita Bradshaw 4% Octagon 2%

Tennessee Senate 2026 odds → Vol $458K

South Dakota Senate 2026

Rounds vs Bengs Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Mike Rounds 94% Octagon 94%
Brian Bengs 6% Octagon 6%

South Dakota Senate 2026 odds → Vol $421K

Arkansas Senate 2026

Cotton vs Shoffner Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Tom Cotton 94% Octagon 95%
Hallie Shoffner 6% Octagon 5%

Arkansas Senate 2026 odds → Vol $284K

Louisiana Senate 2026

Letlow vs Davis Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Julia Letlow 91% Octagon 90%
Jamie Davis 9% Octagon 10%

Louisiana Senate 2026 odds → Vol $221K

New Jersey Senate 2026

Booker vs Murphy Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Cory Booker 97% Octagon 96%
Justin Murphy 4% Octagon 4%

New Jersey Senate 2026 odds → Vol $208K

New Mexico Senate 2026

Luján vs Marker Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Ben Ray Luján 98% Octagon 98%
Larry E. Marker 4% Octagon 2%

New Mexico Senate 2026 odds → Vol $112K

Massachusetts Senate 2026

Markey vs Deaton Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Ed Markey 98% Octagon 98%
John Deaton 2% Octagon 2%

Massachusetts Senate 2026 odds → Vol $80K

Oklahoma Senate 2026

Hern vs Thomas Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Kevin Hern 98% Octagon 97%
N’Kiyla Thomas 3% Octagon 3%

Oklahoma Senate 2026 odds → Vol $48K

Rhode Island Senate 2026

Reed vs McKay Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Jack Reed 99% Octagon 99%
Raymond McKay 2% Octagon 1%

Rhode Island Senate 2026 odds → Vol $40K

Colorado Senate 2026

Hickenlooper vs Baisley Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

John Hickenlooper 99% Octagon 99%
Mark Baisley 1% Octagon 1%

Colorado Senate 2026 odds → Vol $37K

Virginia Senate 2026

Warner vs Mizusawa Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Mark Warner 98% Octagon 98%
Bert Mizusawa 2% Octagon 2%

Virginia Senate 2026 odds → Vol $37K

West Virginia Senate 2026

Capito vs Anderson Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Shelley Moore Capito 98% Octagon 97%
Rachel Fetty Anderson 3% Octagon 3%

West Virginia Senate 2026 odds → Vol $33K

Delaware Senate 2026

Coons vs Katz Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Chris Coons 100% Octagon 99%
Michael Katz 2% Octagon 1%

Delaware Senate 2026 odds → Vol $28K

Wyoming Senate 2026

Hageman vs Byrd Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Harriet Hageman 99% Octagon 99%
James Byrd 1% Octagon 1%

Wyoming Senate 2026 odds → Vol $27K

Illinois Senate 2026

Stratton vs Tracy Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Juliana Stratton 99% Octagon 98%
Don Tracy 2% Octagon 2%

Illinois Senate 2026 odds → Vol $23K

Oregon Senate 2026

Merkley vs Smith Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Jeff Merkley 99% Octagon 98%
David Brock Smith 2% Octagon 2%

Oregon Senate 2026 odds → Vol $15K

Alabama Senate 2026

Moore vs Wess Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Barry Moore 99% Octagon 99%
Everett Wess 2% Octagon 1%

Alabama Senate 2026 odds → Vol $14K

Governor Races

Every 2026 gubernatorial race, toss-ups first.

Bar = market price tick = Octagon model

Georgia Governor 2026

Bottoms vs Jackson Octagon: Democratic favored

Toss-up Kalshi

Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% Octagon 56%
Rick Jackson 42% Octagon 44%

Georgia Governor 2026 odds → Vol $2.3M

Nevada Governor 2026

Ford vs Lombardo Octagon: Democratic favored

Toss-up Kalshi

Aaron Ford 66% Octagon 64%
Joe Lombardo 34% Octagon 36%

Nevada Governor 2026 odds → Vol $1.8M

Alaska Governor 2026

Kreiss-Tomkins vs Wilson Octagon: Toss-up / uncalled favored

Toss-up Polymarket

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 60% Octagon 64%
Bernadette Wilson 26% Octagon 35%

Kalshi Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins · 89% Vol $946K

Alaska Governor 2026 odds → Vol $1.3M

Florida Governor 2026

Donalds vs Jolly Octagon: Republican favored

Lean Kalshi

Byron Donalds 79% Octagon 75%
David Jolly 23% Octagon 25%

Florida Governor 2026 odds → Vol $3.8M

Ohio Governor 2026

Acton vs Ramaswamy Octagon: Democratic favored

Lean Kalshi

Amy Acton 80% Octagon 76%
Vivek Ramaswamy 21% Octagon 24%

Ohio Governor 2026 odds → Vol $3.6M

Texas Governor 2026

Abbott vs Hinojosa Octagon: Republican favored

Lean Kalshi

Greg Abbott 65% Octagon 71%
Gina Hinojosa 36% Octagon 29%

Texas Governor 2026 odds → Vol $3.5M

Wisconsin Governor 2026

Crowley vs Tiffany Octagon: Democratic favored

Lean Kalshi

David Crowley 80% Octagon 79%
Tom Tiffany 20% Octagon 21%

Polymarket David Crowley (D) · 78% Vol $292K

Wisconsin Governor 2026 odds → Vol $1.4M

Vermont Governor 2026

Scott vs Janoo Octagon: Republican favored

Lean Kalshi

Phil Scott 77% Octagon 80%
Amanda Janoo 24% Octagon 20%

Vermont Governor 2026 odds → Vol $556K

Oregon Governor 2026

Kotek vs Drazan Octagon: Democratic favored

Lean Kalshi

Tina Kotek 82% Octagon 78%
Christine Drazan 19% Octagon 22%

Oregon Governor 2026 odds → Vol $399K

California Governor 2026

Becerra vs Hilton Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Polymarket

Xavier Becerra 96% Octagon 97%
Steve Hilton 5% Octagon 3%

Kalshi Xavier Becerra · 97% Vol $24.8M

California Governor 2026 odds → Vol $40.9M

New York Governor 2026

Hochul vs Blakeman Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Kathy Hochul 95% Octagon 96%
Bruce Blakeman 6% Octagon 4%

New York Governor 2026 odds → Vol $4.2M

Iowa Governor 2026

Sand vs Lahn Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Rob Sand 86% Octagon 87%
Zach Lahn 14% Octagon 13%

Iowa Governor 2026 odds → Vol $2.0M

Massachusetts Governor 2026

Healey vs Minogue Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Maura Healey 96% Octagon 97%
Mike Minogue 4% Octagon 3%

Massachusetts Governor 2026 odds → Vol $1.6M

Pennsylvania Governor 2026

Shapiro vs Garrity Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Josh Shapiro 97% Octagon 98%
Stacy Garrity 3% Octagon 2%

Pennsylvania Governor 2026 odds → Vol $941K

Arizona Governor 2026

Hobbs vs Biggs Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Katie Hobbs 92% Octagon 93%
Andy Biggs 9% Octagon 7%

Arizona Governor 2026 odds → Vol $908K

Minnesota Governor 2026

Klobuchar vs Demuth Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Amy Klobuchar 96% Octagon 96%
Lisa Demuth 5% Octagon 4%

Minnesota Governor 2026 odds → Vol $546K

Michigan Governor 2026

Benson vs James Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Jocelyn Benson 92% Octagon 95%
John James 9% Octagon 5%

Michigan Governor 2026 odds → Vol $482K

Oklahoma Governor 2026

Mazzei vs Munson Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Mike Mazzei 90% Octagon 90%
Cyndi Munson 11% Octagon 10%

Oklahoma Governor 2026 odds → Vol $278K

Colorado Governor 2026

Weiser vs Marx Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Phil Weiser 97% Octagon 97%
Victor Marx 4% Octagon 3%

Colorado Governor 2026 odds → Vol $241K

Illinois Governor 2026

Pritzker vs Bailey Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

JB Pritzker 97% Octagon 97%
Darren Bailey 4% Octagon 3%

Illinois Governor 2026 odds → Vol $240K

Tennessee Governor 2026

Blackburn vs Green Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Marsha Blackburn 93% Octagon 93%
Jerri Green 6% Octagon 5%

Tennessee Governor 2026 odds → Vol $228K

New Hampshire Governor 2026

Ayotte vs Warmington Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Kelly Ayotte 95% Octagon 94%
Cinde Warmington 6% Octagon 6%

New Hampshire Governor 2026 odds → Vol $213K

Kansas Governor 2026

Masterson vs Holscher Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Ty Masterson 76% Octagon 81%
Cindy Holscher 25% Octagon 19%

Kansas Governor 2026 odds → Vol $177K

New Mexico Governor 2026

Haaland vs Hull Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Deb Haaland 94% Octagon 95%
Greggory D. Hull 7% Octagon 5%

New Mexico Governor 2026 odds → Vol $170K

Alabama Governor 2026

Tuberville vs Jones Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Tommy Tuberville 94% Octagon 96%
Doug Jones 6% Octagon 4%

Alabama Governor 2026 odds → Vol $165K

Maine Governor 2026

Pingree vs Charles Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Hannah Pingree 95% Octagon 94%
Robert Charles 6% Octagon 4%

Maine Governor 2026 odds → Vol $106K

Rhode Island Governor 2026

Foulkes vs Block Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Helena Foulkes 95% Octagon 96%
Ken Block 4% Octagon 4%

Rhode Island Governor 2026 odds → Vol $85K

Maryland Governor 2026

Moore vs Cox Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Wes Moore 97% Octagon 97%
Dan Cox 3% Octagon 3%

Maryland Governor 2026 odds → Vol $71K

Nebraska Governor 2026

Pillen vs Walz Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Jim Pillen 89% Octagon 84%
Lynne Walz 12% Octagon 16%

Nebraska Governor 2026 odds → Vol $69K

Connecticut Governor 2026

Lamont vs Fazio Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Ned Lamont 97% Octagon 97%
Ryan Fazio 4% Octagon 3%

Connecticut Governor 2026 odds → Vol $62K

South Carolina Governor 2026

Wilson vs Johnson Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Alan Wilson 93% Octagon 93%
Jermaine Johnson 7% Octagon 7%

South Carolina Governor 2026 odds → Vol $43K

Hawaii Governor 2026

Green vs Cordery Octagon: Democratic favored

Safe Kalshi

Josh Green 99% Octagon 99%
Gary Cordery 3% Octagon 1%

Hawaii Governor 2026 odds → Vol $13K

South Dakota Governor 2026

Rhoden vs Ahlers Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Larry Rhoden 98% Octagon 99%
Dan Ahlers 2% Octagon 1%

South Dakota Governor 2026 odds → Vol $10K

Wyoming Governor 2026

Barlow vs Casner Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Eric Barlow 98% Octagon 99%
Kenneth Casner 1% Octagon 1%

Wyoming Governor 2026 odds → Vol $9K

Idaho Governor 2026

Little vs Pickens Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Brad Little 98% Octagon 97%
Terri Pickens 3% Octagon 3%

Idaho Governor 2026 odds → Vol $9K

Arkansas Governor 2026

Sanders vs Love Octagon: Republican favored

Safe Kalshi

Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97% Octagon 98%
Fred Love 3% Octagon 2%

Arkansas Governor 2026 odds → Vol $8K

Primaries & Nominees

Who wins each party's nomination ahead of November.

Florida Republican Governor nominee? Byron Donalds · 96% Texas Republican Senate nominee? Ken Paxton · 96% South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? Darline Graham · 91% Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? Francesca Hong · 87% Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Byron Donalds · 97% Maine Democratic Senate nominee? Graham Platner · 82% South Carolina Republican Governor nominee? Alan Wilson · 88% California Governor primary advancers? (Party) 1 Democrat and 1 Republican · 85% Georgia Republican Governor nominee? Burt Jones · 69% South Dakota Republican Governor nominee? Larry Rhoden · 91% California Governor primary advancers? (Person) Steve Hilton · 68% South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner Darline Graham Nordone · 45% Ohio Republican Governor nominee? Vivek Ramaswamy · 95% South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout Above 325k · 100% Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner Mike Mazzei · 66% Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? Amy Klobuchar · 79% Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? Abdul El-Sayed · 36% Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Above 1.45M · 100% Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner Eric Barlow · 77% Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary? Tom Begich · 99% Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Aaron Guckian · 100% Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner Alexander Vindman · 82% Georgia Democratic Governor nominee? Keisha Lance Bottoms · 68% Michigan Republican Governor nominee? Perry Johnson · 42%

Midterms News

Octagon's AI newsroom covers the biggest overnight moves in the midterms markets.

RSS

Peltola's Growing Lead in Alaska Vote Count Pushes Victory Margin Odds Higher

A vote count update on Monday, November 9, 2026, that expanded Democrat Mary Peltola's lead in the Alaska Senate race has driven a significant repricing in prediction markets, with traders now assigni...

Nov 10, 2026

Mississippi Ballot Deadline Pushes AP Call Odds Later in Senate Race Market

The razor-thin margin in Mississippi's U.S. Senate race, combined with a key ballot receipt deadline, prompted a sharp repricing in prediction markets on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Odds on the Associ...

Nov 6, 2026

Montana Election Result Drives 'Closer Race' Market to 95% Certainty

Reported results from the November 3, 2026, midterm elections have effectively settled a prediction market contract asking whether the U.S. Senate race in Montana or New Jersey would be closer. In the...

Nov 6, 2026

Keisha Lance Bottoms’ 8.6-Point Win Resolves Georgia Governor Markets

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms’ historic victory in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election, with a margin of approximately 8.6 percentage points, prompted a decisive repricing in prediction markets as...

Nov 4, 2026

Trump Housing Order Fuels Bets on 'Mortgage' Talk in Final Midterm Push

Expectations that President Donald Trump will emphasize housing affordability in his final campaign push ahead of the 2026 midterm elections drove a significant repricing in a dedicated prediction mar...

Nov 1, 2026

Trump's Midterm Rally Rhetoric Refocuses Market on Grievances Over Policy

A heavy midterm campaign schedule for Donald Trump, marked by rallies prioritizing base motivation over specific policy, prompted a broad repricing in markets on Wednesday (October 14, 2026) concernin...

Oct 15, 2026

Trump Midterm Blitz Broadens Market Bets on October Rhetoric

The start of former President Donald Trump’s October campaign blitz ahead of the 2026 midterm elections has triggered a broad repricing in markets betting on his public statements, with odds rising on...

Oct 3, 2026

MN GOP State Senate Odds Surge After Polls Show Tightening Statewide Races

A pair of new polls showing Republican candidates gaining ground in Minnesota's top statewide races preceded a dramatic repricing in the market for control of the State Senate. In the session on Thurs...

Sep 18, 2026

Johnson's RNC Speech Cements GOP Midterm Themes, Spikes Mention Odds

A keynote speech by House Speaker Mike Johnson at the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention on Thursday, September 10, 2026, caused a sharp repricing in markets speculating on his talking...

Sep 11, 2026

Leavitt Speech Resolves Mention Bets; 'Midterm' Contract Falls as Phrasing Misses Mark

The content of former White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s speech at the Republican Midterm Convention on Thursday, September 10, provided definitive clarity for traders, causing a dramatic ...

Sep 11, 2026

Trump's RNC Speech Lifts Mention Odds for Foes and Allies to Near-Certainty

Donald Trump's keynote address at the Republican National Committee's first-ever midterm convention on Wednesday, September 9, triggered a sharp repricing in a market speculating on whom he would ment...

Sep 10, 2026

Guckian Primary Win Pushes Nomination Odds to 99% in RI Governor Market

Aaron Guckian’s victory in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, prompted a near-total repricing in a key prediction market, with contracts for his nominat...

Sep 10, 2026

See the edge on every race

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Frequently Asked Questions

When are the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 33–35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships are on the ballot.

Which party is favored to win the House in 2026?

Prediction markets and Octagon's model currently favor the Democratic party to win the U.S. House, with an implied probability near 85%. Odds update as markets move.

How does Octagon calculate midterm election odds?

Each race links to an Octagon research report that pairs live prediction-market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket with an AI-generated model probability, an executive summary, and the key factors that could move the race.

What is the difference between the market and model probability?

The market probability is the price traders are paying on Kalshi or Polymarket. The Octagon model probability is our independent estimate of the outcome, so a gap between the two flags a potential mispricing.

What are the toss-up Senate races in 2026?

The most competitive 2026 Senate races on this tracker — where the favored candidate is under 65% — currently include Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas. Toss-up races are listed first in the Senate and Governor sections.

Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?

This tracker shows live control-of-the-Senate odds in the Balance of Power section, combining Kalshi and Polymarket prices with Octagon's model probability. The favored party updates as the markets move.

How many days until the 2026 election?

There are 0 days until Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Methodology

Odds are sourced live from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets and paired with Octagon's independent model probability. Each race links to a full Octagon research report. Prediction markets reflect trader expectations, not certainties — nothing here is financial or political advice. Data refreshes on every site rebuild.

Cite this page: Octagon, "2026 Midterm Election Tracker," https://www.octagonai.co/midterms-tracker/ — machine-readable data at /midterms-tracker.md.