- Democratic Party 83% Octagon 85%
- Republican Party 17% Octagon 15%
Read Report → Vol $20.3M
2026 U.S. Midterms · Nov 3, 2026
2026 Midterm Election Tracker
Live prediction-market odds for every Senate and Governor race and the balance of power in Congress — each race enriched with an Octagon research report, model probability, and the latest midterms news. Sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.
83
days until Election Day Tuesday, November 3, 2026
158races tracked
34Senate races
36Governor races
Aug 12, 2026research updated
The Battleground Map
Live odds on 34 Senate races and 36 governorships. Republicans lead 29, Democrats 32 — and 9 are still toss-ups. 26 states are voting for both; those are split diagonally.
Democratic Republican Independent Toss-up / uncalled No race in 2026 Senate / Governor
Senate
AL R 98% AK D 66% AR R 94% CO D 97% DE D 98% FL R 86% GA D 93% ID R 93% IL D 98% IA R 58% KS R 78% LA R 93% ME D 56% MA D 99% MI D 55% MN D 91% MS R 94% MT R 81% NE R 66% NH D 88% NJ D 98% NM D 98% NC D 89% OH D 56% OK R 98% OR D 94% RI D 98% SC R 87% SD R 93% TN R 97% TX D 52% VA D 97% WV R 97% WY R 98%
Governor
AL R 92% AK R 29% AZ D 80% AR R 98% CA D 96% CO D 95% CT D 97% FL R 80% GA D 56% HI D 98% ID R 97% IL D 95% IA D 72% KS R 68% ME D 95% MD D 93% MA D 93% MI D 86% MN D 93% NE R 91% NV R 60% NH R 79% NM D 95% NY D 92% OH R 51% OK R 95% OR D 86% PA D 96% RI D 94% SC R 91% SD R 95% TN R 93% TX R 91% VT R 88% WI D 76% WY R 97%
Balance of Power
Who controls Congress after the midterms.
No markets match this filter.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket
- R Senate, D House 41% Octagon 50%
- Democrats Sweep 46% Octagon 39%
- Republicans Sweep 13% Octagon 9%
Read Report → Vol $9.5M
- D-House, R-Senate 39% Octagon 49%
- D-House, D-Senate 43% Octagon 38%
- R-House, R-Senate 16% Octagon 12%
Read Report → Vol $9.1M
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
- Democratic Party 87% Octagon 88%
- Republican Party 14% Octagon 12%
- Party A 0%
Read Report → Vol $9.1M
- ≤47 24% Octagon 18%
- 50 13% Octagon 17%
- 49 13% Octagon 17%
Read Report → Vol $2.8M
- 203-207 15% Octagon 19%
- 198-202 15% Octagon 17%
- 208-212 11% Octagon 15%
Read Report → Vol $2.3M
Senate Races
Every 2026 U.S. Senate race, toss-ups first.
No races match this filter.
TX
Texas
Octagon: Democratic favored Toss-up Kalshi
- James Talarico 49% Octagon 52%
- Ken Paxton 52% Octagon 48%
Polymarket James Talarico (D) · 50% Vol $668K
Read Report →
Vol $7.3M
ME
Maine
Octagon: Democratic favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Troy Jackson 65% Octagon 56%
- Susan Collins 37% Octagon 44%
Polymarket Troy Jackson (D) · 69% Vol $1.1M
Read Report →
Vol $3.7M
IA
Iowa
Octagon: Republican favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Ashley Hinson 60% Octagon 58%
- Josh Turek 40% Octagon 42%
Read Report →
Vol $1.0M
MI
Michigan
Octagon: Democratic favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Abdul El-Sayed 58% Octagon 55%
- Mike Rogers 42% Octagon 45%
Read Report →
Vol $761K
OH
Ohio
Octagon: Democratic favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Sherrod Brown 53% Octagon 56%
- Jon Husted 48% Octagon 44%
Read Report →
Vol $653K
KS
Kansas
Octagon: Republican favored Lean Kalshi
- Roger Marshall 79% Octagon 78%
- Adam Hamilton 22% Octagon 22%
Read Report →
Vol $271K
AK
Alaska
Octagon: Democratic favored Lean Kalshi
- Democratic party 58% Octagon 66%
- Republican party 41% Octagon 34%
Read Report →
Vol $256K
NE
Nebraska
Octagon: Republican favored Lean Kalshi
- Republican party 68% Octagon 66%
- Dan Osborn 32% Octagon 33%
Read Report →
Vol $253K
NC
North Carolina
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Roy Cooper 90% Octagon 89%
- Michael Whatley 10% Octagon 11%
Read Report →
Vol $1.3M
GA
Georgia
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Jon Ossoff 92% Octagon 93%
- Mike Collins 9% Octagon 7%
Read Report →
Vol $1.0M
SC
South Carolina
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 89% Octagon 87%
- Annie Andrews 13% Octagon 13%
Read Report →
Vol $615K
NH
New Hampshire
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 89% Octagon 88%
- Republican party 12% Octagon 12%
Read Report →
Vol $163K
MT
Montana
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 80% Octagon 81%
- Seth Bodnar 16% Octagon 14%
Read Report →
Vol $155K
MN
Minnesota
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Peggy Flanagan 91% Octagon 91%
- Michele Tafoya 9% Octagon 9%
Read Report →
Vol $126K
LA
Louisiana
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Andy Barr 95% Octagon 93%
- Charles Booker 7% Octagon 7%
Read Report →
Vol $98K
ID
Idaho
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Jim Risch 94% Octagon 93%
- Todd Achilles 5% Octagon 5%
Read Report →
Vol $81K
FL
Florida
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 83% Octagon 86%
- Democratic party 18% Octagon 14%
Read Report →
Vol $72K
NJ
New Jersey
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Cory Booker 97% Octagon 98%
- Justin Murphy 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $35K
MS
Mississippi
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 90% Octagon 94%
- Democratic party 14% Octagon 6%
Read Report →
Vol $35K
TN
Tennessee
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Bill Hagerty 98% Octagon 97%
- Marquita Bradshaw 4% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $33K
SD
South Dakota
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Mike Rounds 94% Octagon 93%
- Brian Bengs 6% Octagon 6%
Read Report →
Vol $30K
NM
New Mexico
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Ben Ray Luján 97% Octagon 98%
- Larry E. Marker 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $24K
AR
Arkansas
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Tom Cotton 96% Octagon 94%
- Hallie Shoffner 6% Octagon 6%
Read Report →
Vol $23K
VA
Virginia
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Mark Warner 96% Octagon 97%
- Bert Mizusawa 3% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $21K
WV
West Virginia
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Shelley Moore Capito 98% Octagon 97%
- Rachel Fetty Anderson 3% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $19K
WY
Wyoming
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 98% Octagon 98%
- Democratic party 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $15K
CO
Colorado
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- John Hickenlooper 97% Octagon 97%
- Mark Baisley 3% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $14K
RI
Rhode Island
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 98% Octagon 98%
- Republican party 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $13K
OK
Oklahoma
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Kevin Hern 97% Octagon 98%
- Democratic party 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $11K
IL
Illinois
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Juliana Stratton 98% Octagon 98%
- Don Tracy 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $9K
AL
Alabama
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Barry Moore 98% Octagon 98%
- Everett Wess 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $9K
DE
Delaware
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 98% Octagon 98%
- Republican party 3% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $9K
MA
Massachusetts
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 99% Octagon 99%
- Republican party 1% Octagon 1%
Read Report →
Vol $4K
OR
Oregon
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 95% Octagon 94%
- Republican party 6% Octagon 6%
Read Report →
Vol $2K
Governor Races
Every 2026 gubernatorial race, toss-ups first.
No races match this filter.
AK
Alaska
Octagon: Republican favored Toss-up Polymarket
- Treg Taylor 24% Octagon 29%
- Bernadette Wilson 26% Octagon 27%
Kalshi Tom Begich · 39% Vol $92K
Read Report →
Vol $1.1M
OH
Ohio
Octagon: Republican favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Vivek Ramaswamy 51% Octagon 51%
- Amy Acton 50% Octagon 50%
Read Report →
Vol $939K
NV
Nevada
Octagon: Republican favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Joe Lombardo 62% Octagon 60%
- Aaron Ford 41% Octagon 40%
Read Report →
Vol $644K
GA
Georgia
Octagon: Democratic favored Toss-up Kalshi
- Democratic party 53% Octagon 56%
- Republican party 42% Octagon 44%
Read Report →
Vol $64K
WI
Wisconsin
Octagon: Democratic favored Lean Kalshi
- David Crowley 77% Octagon 76%
- Tom Tiffany 24% Octagon 24%
Read Report →
Vol $688K
IA
Iowa
Octagon: Democratic favored Lean Kalshi
- Democratic party 67% Octagon 72%
- Republican party 36% Octagon 28%
Read Report →
Vol $129K
FL
Florida
Octagon: Republican favored Lean Kalshi
- Republican party 77% Octagon 80%
- Democratic party 23% Octagon 20%
Read Report →
Vol $88K
KS
Kansas
Octagon: Republican favored Lean Kalshi
- Ty Masterson 61% Octagon 68%
- Cindy Holscher 40% Octagon 32%
Read Report →
Vol $33K
NH
New Hampshire
Octagon: Republican favored Lean Kalshi
- Republican party 76% Octagon 79%
- Democratic party 24% Octagon 21%
Read Report →
Vol $9K
CA
California
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Xavier Becerra 96% Octagon 96%
- Steve Hilton 4% Octagon 4%
Read Report →
Vol $49.7M
AZ
Arizona
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 77% Octagon 80%
- Republican party 26% Octagon 20%
Read Report →
Vol $320K
MI
Michigan
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Jocelyn Benson 86% Octagon 86%
- John James 14% Octagon 14%
Read Report →
Vol $300K
NY
New York
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 89% Octagon 92%
- Republican party 10% Octagon 8%
Read Report →
Vol $276K
MN
Minnesota
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Amy Klobuchar 93% Octagon 93%
- Lisa Demuth 7% Octagon 7%
Read Report →
Vol $257K
OR
Oregon
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Tina Kotek 89% Octagon 86%
- Christine Drazan 14% Octagon 14%
Read Report →
Vol $132K
MA
Massachusetts
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 95% Octagon 93%
- Republican party 7% Octagon 7%
Read Report →
Vol $128K
TX
Texas
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 86% Octagon 91%
- Democratic party 12% Octagon 9%
Read Report →
Vol $94K
CO
Colorado
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Phil Weiser 95% Octagon 95%
- Victor Marx 3% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $82K
OK
Oklahoma
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 94% Octagon 95%
- Cyndi Munson 5% Octagon 5%
Read Report →
Vol $67K
AL
Alabama
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Tommy Tuberville 95% Octagon 92%
- Doug Jones 9% Octagon 8%
Read Report →
Vol $56K
VT
Vermont
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Phil Scott 93% Octagon 88%
- Amanda Janoo 13% Octagon 12%
Read Report →
Vol $55K
IL
Illinois
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- JB Pritzker 95% Octagon 95%
- Darren Bailey 5% Octagon 5%
Read Report →
Vol $49K
ME
Maine
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Hannah Pingree 95% Octagon 95%
- Robert Charles 4% Octagon 4%
Read Report →
Vol $47K
CT
Connecticut
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Ned Lamont 99% Octagon 97%
- Ryan Fazio 3% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $35K
PA
Pennsylvania
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 95% Octagon 96%
- Republican party 7% Octagon 4%
Read Report →
Vol $29K
SC
South Carolina
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Alan Wilson 93% Octagon 91%
- Jermaine Johnson 9% Octagon 9%
Read Report →
Vol $25K
MD
Maryland
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Wes Moore 97% Octagon 93%
- Dan Cox 7% Octagon 7%
Read Report →
Vol $19K
TN
Tennessee
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Marsha Blackburn 97% Octagon 93%
- Jerri Green 7% Octagon 7%
Read Report →
Vol $19K
RI
Rhode Island
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 95% Octagon 94%
- Republican party 5% Octagon 5%
Read Report →
Vol $15K
NE
Nebraska
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican 88% Octagon 91%
- Democratic 15% Octagon 9%
Read Report →
Vol $13K
NM
New Mexico
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 92% Octagon 95%
- Republican party 11% Octagon 5%
Read Report →
Vol $11K
HI
Hawaii
Octagon: Democratic favored Safe Kalshi
- Democratic party 98% Octagon 98%
- Republican party 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $9K
SD
South Dakota
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 94% Octagon 95%
- Democratic party 1% Octagon 5%
Read Report →
Vol $6K
AR
Arkansas
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican 97% Octagon 98%
- Democratic 2% Octagon 2%
Read Report →
Vol $3K
ID
Idaho
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 93% Octagon 97%
- Democratic party 5% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $2K
WY
Wyoming
Octagon: Republican favored Safe Kalshi
- Republican party 97% Octagon 97%
- Democratic party 3% Octagon 3%
Read Report →
Vol $2K
Primaries & Nominees
Who wins each party's nomination ahead of November.
Florida Republican Governor nominee? Byron Donalds · 96% Texas Republican Senate nominee? Ken Paxton · 96% Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? Francesca Hong · 87% Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Byron Donalds · 97% Maine Democratic Senate nominee? Graham Platner · 82% South Carolina Republican Governor nominee? Alan Wilson · 88% California Governor primary advancers? (Party) 1 Democrat and 1 Republican · 85% Georgia Republican Governor nominee? Burt Jones · 69% South Dakota Republican Governor nominee? Larry Rhoden · 91% California Governor primary advancers? (Person) Steve Hilton · 68% South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner Darline Graham Nordone · 45% Ohio Republican Governor nominee? Vivek Ramaswamy · 95% Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? Amy Klobuchar · 79% Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? Abdul El-Sayed · 36% Georgia Democratic Governor nominee? Keisha Lance Bottoms · 68% Michigan Republican Governor nominee? Perry Johnson · 42% Kentucky Republican Senate nominee? Andy Barr · 73% Louisiana Republican Senate nominee? Julia Letlow · 61% South Carolina Republican Senate nominee? Lindsey Graham · 86% Georgia Republican Senate nominee? Mike Collins · 61% Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? Lisa Demuth · 63% Alabama Republican Senate nominee? Barry Moore · 78% Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Above 600k · 100% Oregon Republican Governor nominee? Christine Drazan · 78%
Midterms News
Octagon's AI newsroom covers the biggest overnight moves in the midterms markets.
Kelly Endorsement Boosts Holscher Odds in Kansas Governor Market
A post-primary endorsement from popular incumbent Governor Laura Kelly appears to have driven a significant repricing in the 2026 Kansas governor election market. In the session on Tuesday, August 11,...
Guckian Odds Surge in RI Governor Primary Market After Radio Gaffe Apology
Editorial Note This analysis details a significant price movement in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary market. However, this shift occurred on extremely low trading volume, with the ke...
Early Voting Surge Lifts Gov. Rhoden's Odds in SD GOP Runoff Market
Reports on Wednesday of a surge in advance voting for South Dakota's Republican gubernatorial runoff, attributed by election officials to an influx of party-switchers, prompted a significant repricing...
Platner Primary Win Lifts Democratic Odds in Maine Senate Market
The formalization of the general election matchup in Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race is prompting traders to re-evaluate the contest, shifting the implied odds significantly in favor of the Democratic P...
Alan Wilson's Post-Primary Lead Shifts Odds in SC Governor Runoff Market
New polling indicating Attorney General Alan Wilson has taken a lead over Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette in the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial runoff race triggered a significant repricing...
Wilson Nomination Odds Surge as Rivals Consolidate Behind Him in SC Runoff
In the week following South Carolina's June 9 Republican gubernatorial primary, prediction markets have significantly repriced the upcoming runoff, with odds shifting sharply in favor of Attorney Gene...
Jones's Odds Surge in Georgia GOP Runoff Market as Tuesday Vote Nears
In the final trading sessions before Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial runoff, prediction market odds have shifted decisively in favor of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Contracts for Jones to win the nominatio...
Wilson Pulls Ahead of Evette in SC Governor Market After Mace Endorsement
The endorsement of Attorney General Alan Wilson by his former rival, U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, appears to have reshaped the odds in the prediction market for South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial nomi...
Evette's Lead Narrows in SC Gov Market After Primary Forces Runoff
The results of South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 9, 2026, triggered a significant repricing in the nomination prediction market, as frontrunner Pamela Evette failed to secure a...
CA Primary Vote Count Cements Hilton Lead, Pushing Becerra-Hilton Odds to 93%
Updated vote counts from California's June 2 primary have all but confirmed a November gubernatorial matchup between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, causing a sharp repricing in p...
Becerra Primary Projection Solidifies 1D-1R Odds in CA Governor Race
News projections that Democrat Xavier Becerra will advance to the general election in California’s gubernatorial race have significantly shifted prediction market odds, cementing expectations for a No...
Market Prices in 1-Dem, 1-GOP Runoff for CA Governor
Prediction market odds for the 2026 California gubernatorial primary shifted decisively overnight to favor a November runoff between one Democrat and one Republican. In trading on Wednesday, June 03, ...
See the edge on every race
Octagon pairs live Kalshi and Polymarket prices with an independent model probability on every 2026 race — so you can spot where the market is mispriced before it moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 33–35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships are on the ballot.
Which party is favored to win the House in 2026?
Prediction markets and Octagon's model currently favor the Democratic party to win the U.S. House, with an implied probability near 85%. Odds update as markets move.
How does Octagon calculate midterm election odds?
Each race links to an Octagon research report that pairs live prediction-market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket with an AI-generated model probability, an executive summary, and the key factors that could move the race.
What is the difference between the market and model probability?
The market probability is the price traders are paying on Kalshi or Polymarket. The Octagon model probability is our independent estimate of the outcome, so a gap between the two flags a potential mispricing.
What are the toss-up Senate races in 2026?
The most competitive 2026 Senate races on this tracker — where the favored candidate is under 65% — currently include Texas, Maine, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio. Toss-up races are listed first in the Senate and Governor sections.
Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?
This tracker shows live control-of-the-Senate odds in the Balance of Power section, combining Kalshi and Polymarket prices with Octagon's model probability. The favored party updates as the markets move.
How many days until the 2026 election?
There are 83 days until Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Methodology
Odds are sourced live from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets and paired with Octagon's independent model probability. Each race links to a full Octagon research report. Prediction markets reflect trader expectations, not certainties — nothing here is financial or political advice. Data refreshes on every site rebuild.
Cite this page: Octagon, "2026 Midterm Election Tracker," https://www.octagonai.co/midterms-tracker/ — machine-readable data at /midterms-tracker.md.
