Arizona Governor 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~43d): Katie Hobbs' model probability rose +5.6pp, widening edge as market gained +4.9pp (model_led).
- Andy Biggs' model probability fell -5.6pp, compressing edge as market dropped -6.4pp (market_led).
- The overall model-market edge increased by +0.7pp; confidence remained stable.
- Katie Hobbs (D) likely wins, leading Andy Biggs by 6-8 points in late polling.
- Hobbs maintains a significant fundraising advantage over Republican Andy Biggs.
- Biggs's path to victory hinges on consolidating a Trump-aligned 2024 coalition.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Biggs | 8.6% | 7.2% | Andy Biggs could benefit from Arizona's Republican registration advantage and voter consolidation. |
| Katie Hobbs | 91.9% | 92.8% | Katie Hobbs consistently leads Andy Biggs in late-cycle polls and has a significant fundraising advantage. |
Current Context
Sources (12)
- 12026 Arizona Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 2Arizona gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Results from the July 21st Primary in Arizona - CAWPcawp.rutgers.edu
- 4Arizona State Report 2026elexcentral.org
- 52026 Polls: Arizona Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
- 6FiftyPlusOne - Arizona General Governor Election Polls and Average for the 2026 General Electionfiftyplusone.news
- 7Arizona Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 8Arizona Governor Odds — Live Prediction Market Pricespredictionscout.com
- 9Arizona Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 10Arizona Morning Briefing 10-14: Hobbs Opens Massive Lead, Sinema Promoting Feely, Supreme Court Rejects Lake Sanctions, and More - Arizona Globearizonaglobe.com
- 11Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
- 12Calendar Dates - Electionsazsos.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market, titled "Arizona Governor winner?", resolves based on the winning party of the Arizona Governor election.
A "Yes" resolution for a specific candidate's contract (e.g., Katie Hobbs or Andy Biggs) occurs if that candidate is officially declared the winner of the Arizona Governor election. Conversely, a "No" resolution for a candidate's contract occurs if that candidate is officially declared not to have won the election. The key date is the general election on November 3, 2026, after which the market will settle upon the official declaration of the winning party.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Hobbs | $0.92 | $0.08 | 92% |
| Andy Biggs | $0.09 | $0.91 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Traders on this market overwhelmingly anticipate Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs to win the Arizona Governor race, with a current probability of 91.3%. This strong consensus is supported by recent polling averages showing Hobbs leading Republican Andy Biggs by 48.2% to 39.9%. Arguments for Hobbs center on her incumbent status and platform focusing on middle-class tax relief, housing, and water security, while Biggs's proposals include tax cuts and border security.
4. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. How do Katie Hobbs's and Andy Biggs's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compare ahead of the November 2026 election?
| Hobbs Total Fundraising (Oct 2026) | $12 million [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Hobbs Cash On Hand (Oct 2026) | $5.4 million [1][2] |
| Biggs Total Fundraising (Oct 2026) | $3 million [1][2] |
Sources (6)
- 1New reports shed light on Hobbs', Biggs' campaign financesyourvalley.net
- 2Katie Hobbs shrinks cash lead over Andy Biggsktar.com
- 3Gubernatorial candidates rake in millions in donations...azcapitoltimes.com
- 42026 Arizona gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 52026 Arizona Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
- 6Scan: Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? — Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
6. What does late-cycle polling data from October 2026 indicate about the strength and stability of Katie Hobbs's lead over Andy Biggs?
| Central Polling Tendency | Hobbs +6 to +8 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Probability | 90%-91% for Hobbs [6][4][7][8] |
| Model-Based Win Probability | 73% for Hobbs [5] |
Sources (9)
- 1Memo: Arizona Voter Research - Sept 2026weareequis.us
- 2Statewide poll shows Trump voters shift left this electionnews.azpm.org
- 3Hobbs leads Arizona governor race by 5.7 pointswick.io
- 42026 Arizona Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 5Arizona Governor 2026 Polls — Hobbs vs Biggs — PoliAggpoliagg.com
- 6Arizona Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Hobbs vs. Biggs | Kalshikalshi.com
- 7Arizona Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 8Arizona Governor Odds 2026: Hobbs vs. Biggs Market Pricesdefirate.com
- 9New Arizona poll shows Democrats leading in several key...azfamily.com
7. Which key voter demographics or electoral bellwethers in Arizona could signal a potential upset victory for Andy Biggs?
| Republican Support for Biggs | Needs 85-90% (currently 70.6%) [1] |
|---|---|
| Independent Voters (Hobbs vs. Biggs) | Hobbs 58.0% to Biggs 20.5% [1] |
| Voters aged 50-64 | Hobbs led by more than 10 points (Trump carried by 22 points in 2024) [1] |
Sources (4)
8. What insights can be drawn from Arizona's early voting and mail-in ballot return data from October 7 to November 3, 2026?
| Availability of AZ early voting return data | Not available for statewide series (Oct 7 - Nov 3, 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Forecast justification from early-return data | Cannot independently justify specific forecast for Hobbs or Biggs [5][6][7][8][9] |
| Katie Hobbs market favorability (Oct 22, 2026) | Approx. 91% vs. Andy Biggs 9-10% [5][7][10] |
Sources (13)
- 12026 Election Info | Arizona Secretary of Stateazsos.gov
- 2November 3, 2026 General Election - Maricopaazcleanelections.gov
- 3VOTER GUIDE: What to know about Arizona's 2026 electionabc15.com
- 4Important Election Dateselections.maricopa.gov
- 5Live odds: Arizona Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 62026 Arizona Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 7Governor Markets | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 8https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/arizona-governor-winner-2026polymarket.copilot.markets
- 9https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhuntnewswidgetpolymarket.com
- 10Arizona Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Hobbs vs. Biggs | Kalshikalshi.com
- 11Early voting starts in Arizona for November midterm electionazfamily.com
- 12Post-Election Procedures | Arizona Secretary of Stateazsos.gov
- 13Ballot Processingazsos.gov
9. What is Andy Biggs's most plausible path to victory, and what evidence supports it given the 2024 presidential election results in Arizona?
| Trump 2024 Arizona Presidential Margin | 5.53 points (52.22%-46.69%) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Biggs Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | 10% [6] |
| Hobbs Polling Lead (Prediction Edge) | 6.4 points (46.3%-39.9%) [7] |
Sources (10)
- 1Rep. Andy Biggs wins GOP primary for Arizona governorpolitico.com
- 2Arizona President Election 2024 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 3November 5, 2024 FINAL OFFICIAL RESULTSelections.maricopa.gov
- 42024 United States presidential election in Arizonaen.wikipedia.org
- 5Arizona Election Results 2024: Live Map - Races by Countypolitico.com
- 6Arizona Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 7Andy Biggs: 2026 Arizona Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 8Andy Biggs wins Republican nomination to challenge...pbs.org
- 9Endorsementsbiggsforarizona.com
- 102026 Arizona governor's race: The candidateskjzz.org
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1Arizona Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 22026 Arizona Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 3Arizona Governor Odds 2026: Hobbs vs. Biggs Market Pricesdefirate.com
- 42026 Polls: Arizona Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
- 5Arizona Governor Odds 2026: Hobbs 91% to Win — Kalshi Livepredictionmarketspicks.com
- 6Memo: Arizona Voter Research - Sept 2026 | Equis Researchweareequis.us
- 7Arizona gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 82026 Election Info | Arizona Secretary of Stateazsos.gov