Aaron Guckian
Market Model 99.4% 99.5%
Elaine Pelino
Market Model 0.4% 0.4%
Elections Markets
Active Markets (333)
New Jersey Senate winner? Kalshi
Justin Murphy
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Cory Booker
Market Model 98.1% 99.8%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 4.4% 3.8%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 95.8% 96.2%
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi
Michele Tafoya
Market Model 11.0% 11.8%
Peggy Flanagan
Market Model 90.1% 88.2%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi
Josh Turek
Market Model 37.0% 36.6%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 64.0% 63.4%
Wisconsin Governor winner? Kalshi
Tom Tiffany
Market Model 19.0% 25.1%
David Crowley
Market Model 80.0% 74.9%
Jermaine Johnson
Market Model 5.0% 4.3%
Alan Wilson
Market Model 94.0% 95.7%
Wyoming Governor winner? Kalshi
Eric Barlow
Market Model 98.0% 99.0%
Kenneth Casner
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Oregon Governor winner? Kalshi
Christine Drazan
Market Model 12.0% 10.1%
Tina Kotek
Market Model 88.0% 89.9%
Tennessee Governor winner? Kalshi
Jerri Green
Market Model 4.8% 4.7%
Marsha Blackburn
Market Model 98.0% 95.3%
Oklahoma Governor winner? Kalshi
Cyndi Munson
Market Model 9.2% 5.9%
Republican party
Market Model 91.0% 94.1%
Maine Governor winner? Kalshi
Hannah Pingree
Market Model 92.4% 95.9%
Robert Charles
Market Model 4.1% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 4.8% 2.8%
Republican party
Market Model 95.6% 97.2%
Michigan Governor winner? Kalshi
John James
Market Model 11.0% 13.7%
Mike Duggan
Market Model 0.9% 0.4%
Minnesota Governor winner? Kalshi
Lisa Demuth
Market Model 5.8% 3.4%
Amy Klobuchar
Market Model 94.5% 96.6%
Arkansas Governor winner? Kalshi
Fred Love
Market Model 4.4% 2.5%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Market Model 99.8% 97.5%
Illinois Governor winner? Kalshi
JB Pritzker
Market Model 95.7% 97.4%
Darren Bailey
Market Model 4.4% 2.6%
Colorado Governor winner? Kalshi
Victor Marx
Market Model 4.9% 4.2%
Phil Weiser
Market Model 95.0% 95.8%
Alabama Governor winner? Kalshi
Doug Jones
Market Model 9.9% 9.8%
Tommy Tuberville
Market Model 91.2% 90.2%
Mike Minogue
Market Model 6.9% 5.8%
Maura Healey
Market Model 94.1% 94.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 98.0% 88.0%
Republican party
Market Model 6.7% 9.2%
Vermont Governor winner? Kalshi
Phil Scott
Market Model 90.0% 94.4%
Amanda Janoo
Market Model 7.4% 5.6%
Wyoming Senate winner? Kalshi
Harriet Hageman
Market Model 99.8% 98.9%
James Byrd
Market Model 1.9% 1.1%
West Virginia Senate winner? Kalshi
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 3.4% 2.1%
Shelley Moore Capito
Market Model 96.8% 97.9%
Virginia Senate winner? Kalshi
Mark Warner
Market Model 98.0% 98.2%
Bert Mizusawa
Market Model 2.1% 1.8%
South Dakota Senate winner? Kalshi
Brian Bengs
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
Mike Rounds
Market Model 95.4% 96.0%
Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi
Marquita Bradshaw
Market Model 1.7% 1.0%
Bill Hagerty
Market Model 96.0% 99.0%
Rhode Island Senate winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 98.0% 97.3%
Republican party
Market Model 2.7% 2.7%
Oklahoma Senate winner? Kalshi
Kevin Hern
Market Model 94.1% 95.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.8% 5.0%
New Mexico Senate winner? Kalshi
Ben Ray Luján
Market Model 97.1% 98.4%
Larry E. Marker
Market Model 2.7% 1.6%
Nevada Governor winner? Kalshi
Aaron Ford
Market Model 40.0% 31.9%
Joe Lombardo
Market Model 62.0% 68.1%
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 17.0% 19.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 84.0% 80.8%
Illinois Senate winner? Kalshi
Don Tracy
Market Model 3.1% 3.1%
Juliana Stratton
Market Model 97.1% 96.9%
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi
Adam Hamilton
Market Model 20.0% 17.6%
Roger Marshall
Market Model 80.0% 82.4%
Maryland Governor winner? Kalshi
Dan Cox
Market Model 6.3% 6.1%
Wes Moore
Market Model 97.4% 93.9%
Kentucky Senate winner? Kalshi
Charles Booker
Market Model 5.0% 2.3%
Andy Barr
Market Model 94.1% 97.7%
Massachusetts Senate winner? Kalshi
Ed Markey
Market Model 96.9% 99.0%
John Deaton
Market Model 1.4% 1.0%
Idaho Senate winner? Kalshi
David Roth
Market Model 1.4% 0.8%
Jim Risch
Market Model 96.0% 94.9%
Hawaii Governor winner? Kalshi
Josh Green
Market Model 95.9% 97.7%
Gary Cordery
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Connecticut Governor winner? Kalshi
Ryan Fazio
Market Model 4.9% 4.1%
Ned Lamont
Market Model 99.8% 95.9%
Alabama Senate winner? Kalshi
Everett Wess
Market Model 1.5% 1.1%
Barry Moore
Market Model 97.9% 98.9%
Arkansas Senate winner? Kalshi
Hallie Shoffner
Market Model 7.0% 5.2%
Tom Cotton
Market Model 93.2% 94.8%
Colorado Senate winner? Kalshi
Mark Baisley
Market Model 3.9% 5.1%
John Hickenlooper
Market Model 96.9% 94.9%
Delaware Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 98.9% 99.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 53.0% 51.8%
Democratic Party
Market Model 48.0% 48.2%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi
Ken Paxton
Market Model 51.0% 48.8%
James Talarico
Market Model 49.0% 51.2%
R-House, R-Senate
Market Model 17.0% 20.4%
D-House, D-Senate
Market Model 48.0% 42.0%
Annie Andrews
Market Model 13.0% 13.1%
Darline Graham
Market Model 86.0% 86.9%
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi
Vivek Ramaswamy
Market Model 44.0% 52.0%
Amy Acton
Market Model 56.0% 48.0%
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi
Jon Husted
Market Model 48.0% 45.3%
Sherrod Brown
Market Model 53.0% 54.7%
Roy Cooper
Market Model 91.2% 93.6%
Michael Whatley
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Mike Rogers
Market Model 36.0% 36.7%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 64.0% 62.6%
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi
Susan Collins
Market Model 33.0% 36.3%
Troy Jackson
Market Model 68.0% 63.7%
Georgia Senate winner? Kalshi
Mike Collins
Market Model 7.8% 5.7%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 93.3% 94.3%
Republican party
Market Model 88.0% 87.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 16.0% 13.0%
Idaho Governor winner? Kalshi
Brad Little
Market Model 98.0% 97.1%
Terri Pickens
Market Model 4.1% 2.9%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 0.1% 0.2%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 26.0% 35.3%
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Mary Peltola
Market Model 63.0% 74.8%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 24.8%
New Mexico Governor winner? Kalshi
Greggory D. Hull
Market Model 9.3% 9.0%
Deb Haaland
Market Model 94.2% 91.0%
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi
Gina Hinojosa
Market Model 17.0% 14.9%
Greg Abbott
Market Model 83.0% 85.1%
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi
Angie Nixon
Market Model 8.3% 8.4%
Ashley Moody
Market Model 90.8% 91.6%
Nebraska Governor winner? Kalshi
Jim Pillen
Market Model 92.4% 88.7%
Lynne Walz
Market Model 9.8% 11.3%
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi
Byron Donalds
Market Model 82.0% 84.2%
David Jolly
Market Model 18.0% 15.8%
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi
Rob Sand
Market Model 77.0% 80.4%
Zach Lahn
Market Model 22.0% 19.6%
Oregon Senate winner? Kalshi
Jeff Merkley
Market Model 98.9% 98.1%
David Brock Smith
Market Model 2.5% 1.9%
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi
Rick Jackson
Market Model 43.0% 35.4%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Market Model 57.0% 64.6%
Stacy Garrity
Market Model 2.6% 2.7%
Josh Shapiro
Market Model 95.5% 97.3%
New York Governor winner? Kalshi
Bruce Blakeman
Market Model 9.6% 8.6%
Kathy Hochul
Market Model 92.2% 91.4%
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi
Dan Osborn
Market Model 27.0% 27.7%
Pete Ricketts
Market Model 73.0% 72.2%
Arizona Governor winner? Kalshi
Katie Hobbs
Market Model 87.0% 87.2%
Andy Biggs
Market Model 15.0% 12.8%
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi
Seth Bodnar
Market Model 6.7% 6.7%
Kurt Alme
Market Model 91.9% 92.2%
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi
Scott Colom
Market Model 6.7% 5.7%
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Market Model 94.5% 94.3%
≥80,000
Market Model 33.0% 33.2%
≥65,000
Market Model 99.0% 99.0%
John Kulewicz
Market Model 17.0% 14.6%
Keith Faber
Market Model 83.0% 85.4%
At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 12.0%
At least 26%
Market Model 4.0% 4.0%
Republicans, 20+ pts
Market Model 70.0% 66.0%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 73.5%
MO-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 13.0% 15.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 84.0% 84.6%
Virginia Question 1
Market Model 90.0% 86.8%
Missouri Amendment 3
Market Model 95.0% 93.4%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 0.0% 32.8%
Lindsey Horvath
Market Model 0.0% 32.8%
United Russia (ER)
Market Model 70.0% 60.6%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Market Model 4.9% 6.8%
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tom Steyer
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 4.8% 3.0%
Next French Presidential Election Polymarket
Mathilde Panot
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
François Bayrou
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket
Tarcisio de Freitas
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Renan Santos
Market Model 1.7% 2.0%
Presidential Election Winner 2028 Polymarket
LeBron James
Market Model 0.1% 0.4%
Tim Walz
Market Model 0.1% 40.0%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Byron Donalds
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
Mike Pence
Market Model 0.2% 50.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Polymarket
Oprah Winfrey
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Bernie Sanders
Market Model 0.4% 0.5%
LA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Lauren Jewett
Market Model 16.0% 98.9%
Jim Long
Market Model 0.3% 1.1%
Max Engling
Market Model 29.0% 23.4%
Beau Bayh
Market Model 95.0% 76.6%
Georgia State House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 98.0% 48.1%
Republican party
Market Model 65.0% 51.9%
Maine State Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 88.0% 66.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 24.0% 33.4%
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 88.4%
MO-02 House winner? Kalshi
Ann Wagner
Market Model 79.0% 83.0%
Fred Wellman
Market Model 21.0% 17.0%
Republican party
Market Model 99.0% 47.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 99.0% 52.2%
France United Left Primary Winner Polymarket
Canceled
Market Model 93.1% 97.0%
Marine Tondelier
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ashley Hinson (R)
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
Josh Turek (D)
Market Model 39.0% 35.7%
Next Premier of Quebec Polymarket
Bernard Drainville
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Sol Zanetti
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner Polymarket
Likud
Market Model 50.0% 47.1%
Yashar
Market Model 41.0% 49.0%
São Paulo Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tarcísio de Freitas
Market Model 96.8% 97.5%
Kim Kataguiri
Market Model 0.1% 0.0%
220-224
Market Model 3.9% 2.8%
205-209
Market Model 11.1% 13.6%
Marine Le Pen
Market Model 86.0% 77.7%
Jordan Bardella
Market Model 8.9% 3.5%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Tom Tiffany (R)
Market Model 23.0% 27.9%
David Crowley (D)
Market Model 78.0% 72.1%
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Polymarket
PL
Market Model 77.0% 80.7%
MDB
Market Model 16.3% 16.9%
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place Polymarket
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
Market Model 81.0% 79.0%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Market Model 10.9% 9.7%
Renan Santos Victory
Market Model 0.9% 0.9%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
Market Model 26.1% 15.2%
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Fred Pacheco
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Eduardo Paes
Market Model 96.7% 91.8%
Bulgaria Presidential Election Polymarket
Iliana Iotova
Market Model 74.0% 77.3%
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Market Model 0.3% 0.4%
Yes
Market Model 96.2% 96.2%
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Polymarket
Cleitinho Azevedo
Market Model 69.8% 73.2%
Alexandre Kalil
Market Model 9.0% 8.5%
Utah
Market Model 90.0% 86.8%
Indiana
Market Model 4.0% 0.6%
SPD
Market Model 16.0% 14.8%
AfD
Market Model 85.0% 84.6%
Argentina Presidential Election Winner Polymarket
Javier Milei
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
Axel Kicillof
Market Model 41.0% 44.0%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Market Model 59.0% 51.8%
Mike Rogers (R)
Market Model 40.0% 48.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 96.1% 95.6%
Tarcisio de Frietas
Market Model 0.5% 0.2%
Renan Santos
Market Model 52.0% 50.4%
Ratinho Júnior
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Kansas Governor winner? Kalshi
Ty Masterson
Market Model 69.0% 67.7%
Cindy Holscher
Market Model 31.0% 32.3%
Louisiana Senate winner? Kalshi
Jamie Davis
Market Model 8.5% 8.3%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 93.9% 91.7%
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi
Nithya Raman
Market Model 38.0% 34.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 65.9%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 17.0% 17.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 15.0% 14.5%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 16.0% 18.9%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 10.0% 10.9%
Above 52
Market Model 22.0% 15.9%
Below 45
Market Model 7.1% 7.7%
Yes
Market Model 32.0% 39.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 61.0% 52.0%
Kamala Harris
Market Model 76.0% 68.6%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi
Mike Rogers
Market Model 42.0% 37.8%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 59.0% 62.2%
Above 249
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
Below 210
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
California Governor winner? Kalshi
Steve Hilton
Market Model 5.3% 4.4%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 95.1% 95.6%
2028 Republican VP nominee Kalshi
Marco Rubio
Market Model 28.0% 37.2%
J.D. Vance
Market Model 6.7% 4.8%
2028 Democratic VP nominee Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 8.5% 10.1%
Gretchen Whitmer
Market Model 9.7% 9.7%
Virginia
Market Model 7.0% 1.7%
California
Market Model 97.9% 98.3%
Below 193
Market Model 18.0% 14.0%
223-227
Market Model 4.9% 3.3%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 26.0% 22.3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 68.0% 70.3%
Delcy Rodríguez
Market Model 15.0% 9.9%
María Corina Machado
Market Model 2.4% 0.8%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 26.0% 25.2%
Tucker Carlson
Market Model 3.1% 3.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 17.0% 14.9%
Democratic Party
Market Model 83.0% 85.1%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 26.8%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Ken Paxton (R)
Market Model 52.0% 49.0%
James Talarico (D)
Market Model 50.0% 51.0%
28–29
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
<22
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Quebec General Election Winner Polymarket
PCQ
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
PVQ
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 11.0% 3.7%
Donald Trump
Market Model 7.3% 2.8%
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Market Model 0.8% 0.8%
Moderate Party (M)
Market Model 0.5% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
French election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Troy Jackson (D)
Market Model 69.0% 62.9%
Susan Collins (R)
Market Model 32.0% 37.0%
Republican
Market Model 41.0% 35.7%
Democratic
Market Model 60.0% 64.2%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
United Russia (ER)
Market Model 97.9% 96.7%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
Market Model 0.1% 0.4%
Berlin State Election Winner Polymarket
AfD
Market Model 17.1% 20.0%
SPD
Market Model 4.3% 7.5%
Next Prime Minister of Romania? Polymarket
Sorin Grindeanu
Market Model 23.0% 20.1%
Eugen Tomac
Market Model 1.8% 0.9%
Next Prime Minister of Sweden Polymarket
Jimmie Åkesson
Market Model 1.7% 2.0%
Nooshi Dadgostar
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Renan Santos
Market Model 6.0% 6.8%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket
Democrats Sweep
Market Model 46.0% 38.8%
Republicans Sweep
Market Model 13.0% 9.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 87.0% 88.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 14.0% 11.6%
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket
Republican
Market Model 89.0% 91.3%
Democrat
Market Model 10.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 47.0% 43.1%
LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo Kalshi
Karen Bass and Tom Steyer
Market Model 3.0% 2.6%
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
Market Model 34.0% 31.2%
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 62.9%
Patriotic Front
Market Model 9.9% 11.4%
United Party for National Development
Market Model 63.0% 88.6%
IA-01 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 70.0% 65.3%
Republican party
Market Model 34.0% 34.7%
Alaska House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 15.0% 12.7%
Republican party
Market Model 82.0% 87.3%
APC
Market Model 63.0% 93.2%
Labour
Market Model 4.0% 6.4%
NY-03 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 81.0% 82.3%
Republican party
Market Model 24.0% 17.7%
CA-41 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 89.0% 96.6%
Republican party
Market Model 5.0% 3.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.0% 96.8%
Republican party
Market Model 7.3% 3.2%
Republican party
Market Model 95.2% 95.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.0% 4.4%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.9% 96.9%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Republican party
Market Model 96.0% 95.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.5% 92.8%
Republican party
Market Model 10.0% 7.2%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 26.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 80.0% 73.8%
FL-13 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 73.0% 84.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 24.0% 15.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 6.7% 5.4%
Republican party
Market Model 97.9% 94.6%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 74.0% 71.2%
Republicans, 29+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 70.2%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.3% 5.7%
Republicans, 30+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 27.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 72.3%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 8.9% 5.2%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 28.2%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 18.6%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
IN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 5.0%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.0%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 30.0%
Democrats, 39+ pts
Market Model 98.6% 98.0%
Democrats, 25+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 14.3%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 4.6%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 92.2% 86.2%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 38.6%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 39.6%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 50.3%
Republicans, 16+ pts
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 69.5%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 56.0% 41.4%
Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 8.6%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 17.9%
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi
Bobby Pulido
Market Model 43.0% 47.9%
Monica De La Cruz
Market Model 56.0% 52.1%
Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 27.3%
Republican party
Market Model 60.0% 72.7%
MI-10 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 77.0% 79.4%
Republican party
Market Model 20.0% 20.6%
Democratic Sweep
Market Model 41.0% 34.2%
Republican Sweep
Market Model 28.0% 20.6%
CO-08 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 67.0% 61.3%
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 38.7%
WI-03 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 76.0% 60.4%
Republican party
Market Model 29.0% 39.6%
FL-23 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 79.0% 78.0%
Republican party
Market Model 19.0% 22.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 58.0% 66.1%
Republican party
Market Model 41.0% 33.9%
0
Market Model 12.0% 84.0%
Above 2
Market Model 3.0% 9.9%
Democrats, 56+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Democrats, 80+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 83.0% 80.8%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.9%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 58.1%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Before July 1, 2027
Market Model 26.0% 15.4%
Before January 1, 2028
Market Model 29.0% 17.3%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 9.8% 4.9%
LA-06 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 95.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 8.6% 7.0%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Market Model 34.0% 21.3%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 66.0% 61.8%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 81.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
IN-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Democrats, 35+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Republicans, 22+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 35.9%
Republicans, 28+ pts
Market Model 38.0% 25.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 62.0% 43.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Republicans, 2+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 32.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 74.9%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 21.2%
Democrats, 18+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 91.4%
Democrats, 21+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 81.4%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 100.0%
Republicans, 37+ pts
Market Model 9.9% 0.0%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 83.0% 88.9%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 86.0% 85.9%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Democrats, 38+ pts
Market Model 8.3% 10.1%
Democrats, 20+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 62.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.5% 1.5%
Democrats, 38+ pts
Market Model 27.0% 17.9%
Democrats, 26+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 29.2%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 26.0% 20.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 9.3% 7.3%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 38.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 7.8%
Democrats, 19+ pts
Market Model 12.0% 8.7%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.7%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 90.0% 93.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 23.0% 17.7%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 51.0% 54.6%
New Democracy
Market Model 77.0% 89.7%
SYRIZA
Market Model 0.5% 0.4%
Republicans, 60+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 20.6%
Republicans, 36+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 20.6%
FL-09 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.1% 5.3%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.8% 6.1%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 7.0% 5.5%
Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi
Zach Wahls
Market Model 15.0% 15.9%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 58.0% 77.0%
Democrats, 30+ pts
Market Model 90.4% 87.3%
Democrats, 33+ pts
Market Model 86.0% 81.8%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 76.0% 59.2%
Democrats, 7+ pts
Market Model 51.0% 32.5%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 7.6% 5.9%
Yes
Market Model 92.5% 96.6%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 10.5%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 91.0% 91.7%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 84.0% 85.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.4% 4.9%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 4.9% 3.2%
0
Market Model 79.0% 76.7%
1
Market Model 19.0% 14.4%
Yes
Market Model 8.9% 6.1%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 11.4%
Democrats, 7+ pts
Market Model 4.0% 4.3%
Democrats, 28+ pts
Market Model 95.1% 95.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 20.0%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 39.0% 73.1%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 90.0% 95.0%
Democrats, 27+ pts
Market Model 91.4% 90.1%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 10.0%
São Paulo Governor winner? Kalshi
Tarcísio de Freitas
Market Model 91.0% 91.7%
Fernando Haddad
Market Model 8.0% 8.3%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Democrats, 26+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.0%
Democrats, 44+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 3.1%
Republicans, 1+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Republicans, 4+ pts
Market Model 82.0% 79.7%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 50.0% 58.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 68.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 38.2%
Republicans, 1+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 74.6%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 32.0% 19.2%
Republicans, 18+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 11.4%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 12.0% 7.0%
Republicans, 4+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
Republicans, 1+ pts
Market Model 85.0% 75.1%
Republicans, 4+ pts
Market Model 77.0% 64.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 85.3%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 73.3%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 35.0% 18.7%
Before Aug 1, 2027
Market Model 41.0% 22.5%
Above 195K
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 200K
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 36.0% 25.8%
TX-32 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 81.0% 64.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 19.0% 35.2%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 42.0% 34.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.0% 7.6%
10
Market Model 51.0% 38.2%
7
Market Model 17.0% 17.1%
Yes
Market Model 8.1% 6.0%
Australian Labor Party
Market Model 59.0% 47.0%
Liberal-National Coalition
Market Model 43.0% 41.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.4% 5.6%
Yes
Market Model 53.0% 58.9%
Coalition including ODM
Market Model 56.0% 57.2%
Coalition including UDA
Market Model 36.0% 31.3%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 49.0%
Flávio Bolsonaro
Market Model 46.0% 35.9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Market Model 52.0% 48.6%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 56.0% 48.1%
Maria Pappas
Market Model 3.1% 1.0%
Chris Murphy
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Chuck Schumer
Market Model 50.0% 40.6%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 13.1%
Below 53
Market Model 81.0% 70.1%
53
Market Model 11.0% 10.8%
Javier Milei
Market Model 64.0% 67.8%
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
Market Model 7.9% 6.8%
Before Election Day
Market Model 25.0% 16.9%
Before 2028
Market Model 14.0% 9.4%
Union of Greens and Farmers
Market Model 2.0% 8.2%
New Unity
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Governor
Market Model 76.0% 65.0%
Lieutenant Governor
Market Model 84.0% 78.9%
Yes
Market Model 44.0% 34.5%
Matthew McConaughey
Market Model 10.0% 4.1%
Casey DeSantis
Market Model 19.0% 9.4%
Wilson Witzel
Market Model 5.0% 97.0%
Anthony Garotinho
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Blue tsunami in 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 36.4%
John Coupar
Market Model 12.0% 11.2%
Ken Sim
Market Model 32.0% 27.1%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
Market Model 12.0% 10.1%
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
Market Model 12.0% 17.2%
Iliana Yotova
Market Model 57.0% 42.9%
Nikolai Denkov
Market Model 20.0% 17.4%
Fiona Ma
Market Model 70.0% 50.9%
Josh Fryday
Market Model 23.0% 30.6%
5 or more
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Exactly 4
Market Model 41.0% 38.8%
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 5.0% 8.1%
Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear
Market Model 4.0% 6.5%
2026: Trump's dream year? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 8.7%
CA-11 House winner? (Person) Kalshi
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 37.0% 30.9%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 62.0% 60.0%
Mary Peltola
Market Model 59.0% 59.6%
Dan Sullivan
Market Model 45.0% 37.8%
Republicans win
Market Model 15.0% 11.7%
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Market Model 5.9% 3.9%
Maine Senate Exact Outcome Kalshi
Democratic party wins
Market Model 64.0% 71.2%
Republican party wins
Market Model 37.0% 22.1%
At least 3
Market Model 87.0% 75.2%
At least 5
Market Model 37.0% 22.6%
Cleitinho Azevedo
Market Model 62.0% 86.1%
Mateus Simões
Market Model 10.0% 13.4%
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi
Georgia
Market Model 7.8% 13.4%
Texas
Market Model 19.0% 15.5%
Dan McKee
Market Model 29.0% 19.9%
Helena Foulkes
Market Model 70.0% 79.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 39.0% 45.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 55.0%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Tom Begich
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 15.9%
Yes
Market Model 92.9% 95.5%
Susan Mendoza
Market Model 16.0% 12.4%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 63.0% 44.7%
Bennett 2026
Market Model 5.1% 16.8%
Likud
Market Model 49.0% 50.0%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Arizona State House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 47.0% 41.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 53.0% 58.6%
LA-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Renada Collins
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Troy Carter
Market Model 95.2% 97.7%
TN-08 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
Deportations in 2026? Kalshi
Above 500,000
Market Model 31.0% 42.1%
Above 400,000
Market Model 74.0% 80.6%
No new person
Market Model 55.0% 42.2%
Alina Habba
Market Model 20.0% 11.9%
Republican party
Market Model 37.0% 36.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 62.0% 63.8%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 10.9%
Restore Britain party
Market Model 13.0% 0.5%
Reform party
Market Model 47.0% 40.7%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 10.6%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 19.4%
Hungary
Market Model 4.6% 1.6%
Italy
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Before 2030
Market Model 12.0% 11.6%
Before 2032
Market Model 13.0% 11.6%
Hungary
Market Model 3.0% 1.2%
Greece
Market Model 4.0% 0.9%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 10.6%
Chen Jining
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Ding Xuexiang
Market Model 21.0% 23.1%
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 6.5%
Texas Senate: Exact outcome Kalshi
Cornyn beats Talarico
Market Model 39.0% 34.2%
Talarico beats Paxton
Market Model 25.0% 21.9%
Who will the next Pope be? Kalshi
Pietro Parolin
Market Model 8.2% 22.3%
Peter Erdo
Market Model 3.0% 11.2%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 79.0% 59.2%
Jim Jordan
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 31.0% 30.6%
Israel Katz
Market Model 14.0% 13.8%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Guckian | 99.4% | 99.5% | High | 216,469 contracts | Refresh |
| New Jersey Senate winner? Top outcome: Justin Murphy | 0.2% | 0.2% | High | 39,884 contracts | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 4.4% | 3.8% | High | 13,616,461 contracts | Refresh |
| Minnesota Senate winner? Top outcome: Michele Tafoya | 11.0% | 11.8% | High | 519,137 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? Top outcome: Josh Turek | 37.0% | 36.6% | High | 2,160,361 contracts | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor winner? Top outcome: Tom Tiffany | 19.0% | 25.1% | High | 942,290 contracts | Refresh |
| South Carolina Governor winner? Top outcome: Jermaine Johnson | 5.0% | 4.3% | Med | 30,514 contracts | Refresh |
| Wyoming Governor winner? Top outcome: Eric Barlow | 98.0% | 99.0% | Med | 1,580 contracts | Refresh |
| Oregon Governor winner? Top outcome: Christine Drazan | 12.0% | 10.1% | High | 174,766 contracts | Refresh |
| Tennessee Governor winner? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 4.8% | 4.7% | High | 28,379 contracts | Refresh |
| Oklahoma Governor winner? Top outcome: Cyndi Munson | 9.2% | 5.9% | High | 110,566 contracts | Refresh |
| Maine Governor winner? Top outcome: Hannah Pingree | 92.4% | 95.9% | High | 55,081 contracts | Refresh |
| South Dakota Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 4.8% | 2.8% | High | 7,277 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan Governor winner? Top outcome: John James | 11.0% | 13.7% | High | 325,059 contracts | Refresh |
| Minnesota Governor winner? Top outcome: Lisa Demuth | 5.8% | 3.4% | High | 347,894 contracts | Refresh |
| Arkansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Fred Love | 4.4% | 2.5% | High | 4,277 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois Governor winner? Top outcome: JB Pritzker | 95.7% | 97.4% | High | 100,370 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado Governor winner? Top outcome: Victor Marx | 4.9% | 4.2% | High | 100,724 contracts | Refresh |
| Alabama Governor winner? Top outcome: Doug Jones | 9.9% | 9.8% | Med | 73,300 contracts | Refresh |
| Massachusetts Governor winner? Top outcome: Mike Minogue | 6.9% | 5.8% | High | 324,588 contracts | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 98.0% | 88.0% | Med | 15,283 contracts | Refresh |
| Vermont Governor winner? Top outcome: Phil Scott | 90.0% | 94.4% | High | 73,135 contracts | Refresh |
| Wyoming Senate winner? Top outcome: Harriet Hageman | 99.8% | 98.9% | High | 22,050 contracts | Refresh |
| West Virginia Senate winner? Top outcome: Rachel Fetty Anderson | 3.4% | 2.1% | High | 20,635 contracts | Refresh |
| Virginia Senate winner? Top outcome: Mark Warner | 98.0% | 98.2% | High | 23,816 contracts | Refresh |
| South Dakota Senate winner? Top outcome: Brian Bengs | 6.0% | 4.0% | High | 103,372 contracts | Refresh |
| Tennessee Senate winner? Top outcome: Marquita Bradshaw | 1.7% | 1.0% | High | 34,010 contracts | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 98.0% | 97.3% | Med | 14,995 contracts | Refresh |
| Oklahoma Senate winner? Top outcome: Kevin Hern | 94.1% | 95.0% | Med | 29,726 contracts | Refresh |
| New Mexico Senate winner? Top outcome: Ben Ray Luján | 97.1% | 98.4% | High | 25,139 contracts | Refresh |
| Nevada Governor winner? Top outcome: Aaron Ford | 40.0% | 31.9% | High | 726,209 contracts | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 17.0% | 19.2% | High | 376,488 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois Senate winner? Top outcome: Don Tracy | 3.1% | 3.1% | High | 10,956 contracts | Refresh |
| Kansas Senate winner? Top outcome: Adam Hamilton | 20.0% | 17.6% | High | 668,821 contracts | Refresh |
| Maryland Governor winner? Top outcome: Dan Cox | 6.3% | 6.1% | Med | 26,222 contracts | Refresh |
| Kentucky Senate winner? Top outcome: Charles Booker | 5.0% | 2.3% | Med | 142,451 contracts | Refresh |
| Massachusetts Senate winner? Top outcome: Ed Markey | 96.9% | 99.0% | High | 9,624 contracts | Refresh |
| Idaho Senate winner? Top outcome: David Roth | 1.4% | 0.8% | High | 94,950 contracts | Refresh |
| Hawaii Governor winner? Top outcome: Josh Green | 95.9% | 97.7% | High | 9,182 contracts | Refresh |
| Connecticut Governor winner? Top outcome: Ryan Fazio | 4.9% | 4.1% | High | 37,015 contracts | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? Top outcome: Everett Wess | 1.5% | 1.1% | Med | 9,244 contracts | Refresh |
| Arkansas Senate winner? Top outcome: Hallie Shoffner | 7.0% | 5.2% | High | 80,927 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado Senate winner? Top outcome: Mark Baisley | 3.9% | 5.1% | High | 17,250 contracts | Refresh |
| Delaware Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | 9,970 contracts | Refresh |
| Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Top outcome: Republican Party | 53.0% | 51.8% | High | 8,058,113 contracts | Refresh |
| Texas Senate winner? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 51.0% | 48.8% | High | 11,127,024 contracts | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: R-House, R-Senate | 17.0% | 20.4% | High | 12,257,684 contracts | Refresh |
| South Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Annie Andrews | 13.0% | 13.1% | Med | 1,262,356 contracts | Refresh |
| Ohio Governor winner? Top outcome: Vivek Ramaswamy | 44.0% | 52.0% | High | 1,568,601 contracts | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? Top outcome: Jon Husted | 48.0% | 45.3% | High | 2,646,120 contracts | Refresh |
| North Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Roy Cooper | 91.2% | 93.6% | Med | 2,010,096 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 36.0% | 36.7% | High | 1,868,716 contracts | Refresh |
| Maine Senate winner? Top outcome: Susan Collins | 33.0% | 36.3% | High | 5,292,959 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia Senate winner? Top outcome: Mike Collins | 7.8% | 5.7% | High | 1,232,637 contracts | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 88.0% | 87.0% | High | 28,641 contracts | Refresh |
| Idaho Governor winner? Top outcome: Brad Little | 98.0% | 97.1% | High | 4,104 contracts | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 0.1% | 0.2% | High | $1,253,707 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 63.0% | 74.8% | High | $470,465 | Refresh |
| New Mexico Governor winner? Top outcome: Greggory D. Hull | 9.3% | 9.0% | Med | 53,977 contracts | Refresh |
| Texas Governor winner? Top outcome: Gina Hinojosa | 17.0% | 14.9% | High | 838,703 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida Senate winner? Top outcome: Angie Nixon | 8.3% | 8.4% | High | 538,940 contracts | Refresh |
| Nebraska Governor winner? Top outcome: Jim Pillen | 92.4% | 88.7% | High | 51,944 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida Governor winner? Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 82.0% | 84.2% | High | 826,484 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa Governor winner? Top outcome: Rob Sand | 77.0% | 80.4% | High | 643,793 contracts | Refresh |
| Oregon Senate winner? Top outcome: Jeff Merkley | 98.9% | 98.1% | High | 7,333 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia Governor winner? Top outcome: Rick Jackson | 43.0% | 35.4% | High | 686,500 contracts | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Governor winner? Top outcome: Stacy Garrity | 2.6% | 2.7% | Med | 491,077 contracts | Refresh |
| New York Governor winner? Top outcome: Bruce Blakeman | 9.6% | 8.6% | High | 1,283,482 contracts | Refresh |
| Nebraska Senate winner? Top outcome: Dan Osborn | 27.0% | 27.7% | High | 830,871 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona Governor winner? Top outcome: Katie Hobbs | 87.0% | 87.2% | High | 550,970 contracts | Refresh |
| Montana Senate winner? Top outcome: Seth Bodnar | 6.7% | 6.7% | High | 503,602 contracts | Refresh |
| Mississippi Senate winner? Top outcome: Scott Colom | 6.7% | 5.7% | High | 112,641 contracts | Refresh |
| NH-01 Democratic primary: voter turnout Top outcome: ≥80,000 | 33.0% | 33.2% | High | 41,265 contracts | Refresh |
| Ohio Attorney General winner? Top outcome: John Kulewicz | 17.0% | 14.6% | High | 2,247 contracts | Refresh |
| Saxony-Anhalt state election: CDU vote percent Top outcome: At least 20% | 4.0% | 12.0% | High | 2,589 contracts | Refresh |
| Missouri's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 20+ pts | 70.0% | 66.0% | High | 4,795 contracts | Refresh |
| MO-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 13.0% | 15.4% | High | 57,303 contracts | Refresh |
| Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026? Top outcome: Virginia Question 1 | 90.0% | 86.8% | Med | 11,149 contracts | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayoral Election Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 0.0% | 32.8% | High | $13,496,855 | Refresh |
| Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 70.0% | 60.6% | High | $24,256,661 | Refresh |
| California Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tom Steyer | 0.1% | 0.0% | High | $40,895,404 | Refresh |
| Next French Presidential Election Top outcome: Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | 0.5% | High | $123,852,610 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election Top outcome: Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $140,378,330 | Refresh |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Top outcome: LeBron James | 0.1% | 0.4% | Med | $696,135,851 | Refresh |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 0.4% | 0.5% | Med | $693,297,468 | Refresh |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Top outcome: Oprah Winfrey | 0.3% | 0.4% | High | $1,268,367,681 | Refresh |
| LA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Lauren Jewett | 16.0% | 98.9% | High | 73,137 contracts | Refresh |
| Indiana Secretary of State winner? Top outcome: Max Engling | 29.0% | 23.4% | Med | 19,501 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia State House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 98.0% | 48.1% | High | 1,146 contracts | Refresh |
| Maine State Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 88.0% | 66.6% | High | 5,200 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Serbia announce a snap election? Yes refers to: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 84.0% | 88.4% | High | 11,146 contracts | Refresh |
| MO-02 House winner? Top outcome: Ann Wagner | 79.0% | 83.0% | Med | 6,557 contracts | Refresh |
| Minnesota State Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 99.0% | 47.8% | Med | 5,595 contracts | Refresh |
| France United Left Primary Winner Top outcome: Canceled | 93.1% | 97.0% | High | $203,052 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ashley Hinson (R) | 60.0% | 64.2% | High | $206,045 | Refresh |
| Next Premier of Quebec Top outcome: Bernard Drainville | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $246,698 | Refresh |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner Top outcome: Likud | 50.0% | 47.1% | High | $233,182 | Refresh |
| São Paulo Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas | 96.8% | 97.5% | High | $284,393 | Refresh |
| Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 220-224 | 3.9% | 2.8% | High | $286,502 | Refresh |
| 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? Top outcome: Marine Le Pen | 86.0% | 77.7% | Med | $289,784 | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Tom Tiffany (R) | 23.0% | 27.9% | High | $291,599 | Refresh |
| Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won Top outcome: PL | 77.0% | 80.7% | High | $293,650 | Refresh |
| Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place Top outcome: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 81.0% | 79.0% | High | $318,944 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Renan Santos Victory | 0.9% | 0.9% | High | $323,381 | Refresh |
| Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Fred Pacheco | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $323,998 | Refresh |
| Bulgaria Presidential Election Top outcome: Iliana Iotova | 74.0% | 77.3% | High | $332,872 | Refresh |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes refers to: Yes | 96.2% | 96.2% | Med | $342,206 | Refresh |
| Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo | 69.8% | 73.2% | High | $355,399 | Refresh |
| Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? Top outcome: Utah | 90.0% | 86.8% | Med | $395,141 | Refresh |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: SPD | 16.0% | 14.8% | High | $456,070 | Refresh |
| Argentina Presidential Election Winner Top outcome: Javier Milei | 52.0% | 52.5% | High | $527,244 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 59.0% | 51.8% | High | $467,639 | Refresh |
| Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 96.1% | 95.6% | Med | $480,108 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 52.0% | 50.4% | Med | $549,272 | Refresh |
| Kansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Ty Masterson | 69.0% | 67.7% | High | 33,053 contracts | Refresh |
| Louisiana Senate winner? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 8.5% | 8.3% | Med | 28,904 contracts | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? Top outcome: Nithya Raman | 38.0% | 34.1% | High | 91,167,784 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 17.0% | 17.5% | High | 176,244,230 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 16.0% | 18.9% | High | 58,306,769 contracts | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 52 | 22.0% | 15.9% | High | 1,924,116 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 32.0% | 39.3% | Med | 650,715 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 61.0% | 52.0% | Med | 746,413 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 42.0% | 37.8% | High | 745,695 contracts | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 249 | 9.2% | 6.9% | High | 966,836 contracts | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 5.3% | 4.4% | High | 1,199,182 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican VP nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 28.0% | 37.2% | High | 1,251,007 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% | 10.1% | High | 2,570,313 contracts | Refresh |
| Which states will redistrict before the midterms? Top outcome: Virginia | 7.0% | 1.7% | Med | 1,992,844 contracts | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Below 193 | 18.0% | 14.0% | High | 2,333,139 contracts | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential election winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro | 26.0% | 22.3% | High | 2,890,078 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Delcy Rodríguez | 15.0% | 9.9% | Med | 5,127,668 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 26.0% | 25.2% | Med | 55,836,056 contracts | Refresh |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? Top outcome: Republican Party | 17.0% | 14.9% | High | 20,304,296 contracts | Refresh |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 30.0% | 26.8% | Med | $3,617,972 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Ken Paxton (R) | 52.0% | 49.0% | High | $667,716 | Refresh |
| How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 28–29 | 3.0% | 2.3% | High | $685,946 | Refresh |
| Quebec General Election Winner Top outcome: PCQ | 0.1% | 0.5% | High | $736,939 | Refresh |
| Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 11.0% | 3.7% | Med | $1,023,194 | Refresh |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: Sweden Democrats (SD) | 0.8% | 0.8% | High | $1,280,539 | Refresh |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | $1,048,994 | Refresh |
| French election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 13.0% | 7.5% | High | $1,090,566 | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Troy Jackson (D) | 69.0% | 62.9% | High | $1,124,762 | Refresh |
| Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Top outcome: Republican | 41.0% | 35.7% | High | $1,987,447 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | $2,789,166 | Refresh |
| Russia Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: United Russia (ER) | 97.9% | 96.7% | High | $2,912,291 | Refresh |
| Berlin State Election Winner Top outcome: AfD | 17.1% | 20.0% | High | $3,166,714 | Refresh |
| Next Prime Minister of Romania? Top outcome: Sorin Grindeanu | 23.0% | 20.1% | High | $3,276,891 | Refresh |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden Top outcome: Jimmie Åkesson | 1.7% | 2.0% | High | $3,410,864 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | $3,754,540 | Refresh |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Top outcome: Renan Santos | 6.0% | 6.8% | High | $4,427,416 | Refresh |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Top outcome: Democrats Sweep | 46.0% | 38.8% | Med | $9,458,397 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 87.0% | 88.4% | High | $9,060,714 | Refresh |
| Florida Senate Election Winner Top outcome: Republican | 89.0% | 91.3% | High | $61,058 | Refresh |
| When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | 4,134 contracts | Refresh |
| LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo Top outcome: Karen Bass and Tom Steyer | 3.0% | 2.6% | High | 24,259 contracts | Refresh |
| Blue wave in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? | 68.0% | 62.9% | Med | 235,279 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election? Top outcome: Patriotic Front | 9.9% | 11.4% | High | 9,996 contracts | Refresh |
| IA-01 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 70.0% | 65.3% | High | 4,368 contracts | Refresh |
| Alaska House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 15.0% | 12.7% | High | 17,101 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Nigerian Senate election? Top outcome: APC | 63.0% | 93.2% | High | 197 contracts | Refresh |
| NY-03 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 81.0% | 82.3% | High | 3,615 contracts | Refresh |
| CA-41 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 89.0% | 96.6% | High | 8,483 contracts | Refresh |
| New York Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.0% | 96.8% | High | 16,096 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Nebraska? Top outcome: Republican party | 95.2% | 95.6% | High | 413 contracts | Refresh |
| Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 3.1% | High | 6,374 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Democrats hold a midterm convention? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | Med | 12,976 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Top outcome: Republican party | 96.0% | 95.0% | High | 633 contracts | Refresh |
| Connecticut Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.5% | 92.8% | High | 570 contracts | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 26.2% | High | 5,486 contracts | Refresh |
| FL-13 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 73.0% | 84.2% | High | 3,687 contracts | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 6.7% | 5.4% | High | 243 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 26+ pts | 74.0% | 71.2% | High | 1,220 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | 4,166 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 30+ pts | 31.0% | 27.0% | High | 2,646 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 16.0% | 16.3% | High | 5,961 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | 17,514 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 11+ pts | 21.0% | 28.2% | High | 1,772 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 58+ pts | 15.0% | 15.0% | High | 2,392 contracts | Refresh |
| IN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 92.7% | 96.5% | High | 3,080 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 27th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 7.9% | 5.0% | High | 2,523 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 51+ pts | 46.0% | 30.0% | High | 11,244 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 25+ pts | 14.0% | 14.3% | Med | 11,452 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | Med | 5,041 contracts | Refresh |
| Kansas's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 30.0% | 32.7% | High | 3,208 contracts | Refresh |
| Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 22+ pts | 92.2% | 86.2% | High | 33,164 contracts | Refresh |
| Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 13+ pts | 54.0% | 39.6% | High | 21,738 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 16+ pts | 55.0% | 55.0% | High | 8,673 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 59.0% | 44.2% | High | 12,320 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 8+ pts | 8.4% | 8.6% | High | 10,018 contracts | Refresh |
| TX-15 House winner? Top outcome: Bobby Pulido | 43.0% | 47.9% | High | 19,848 contracts | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 33.0% | 27.3% | High | 13,233 contracts | Refresh |
| MI-10 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 77.0% | 79.4% | High | 9,026 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate? Top outcome: Democratic Sweep | 41.0% | 34.2% | High | 221,678 contracts | Refresh |
| CO-08 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 67.0% | 61.3% | High | 4,997 contracts | Refresh |
| WI-03 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 76.0% | 60.4% | High | 7,434 contracts | Refresh |
| FL-23 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 79.0% | 78.0% | High | 14,072 contracts | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 58.0% | 66.1% | High | 256,169 contracts | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 84.0% | High | 51 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 56+ pts | 89.0% | 89.0% | High | 1,076 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 83.0% | 80.8% | High | 5,850 contracts | Refresh |
| New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 61.0% | 58.1% | Med | 17,482 contracts | Refresh |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan? Top outcome: Before July 1, 2027 | 26.0% | 15.4% | Med | 15,340 contracts | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 10.0% | 10.4% | High | 917 contracts | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | 917 contracts | Refresh |
| LA-06 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 32.0% | 40.4% | High | 28,596 contracts | Refresh |
| Indiana's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 34+ pts | 92.6% | 95.0% | Med | 1,046 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Top outcome: Marjorie Taylor Greene | 34.0% | 21.3% | Med | 266,967 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 89.0% | 81.1% | High | 1,186 contracts | Refresh |
| IN-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 84.0% | 87.8% | High | 3,686 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | 1,858 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 35+ pts | 10.0% | 2.0% | High | 1,211 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 22+ pts | 48.0% | 35.9% | High | 4,956 contracts | Refresh |
| Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 20.0% | 20.1% | High | 2,370 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 3+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | 3,131 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Yes refers to: Yes | 56.0% | 44.1% | Med | 27,245 contracts | Refresh |
| Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | High | 1,023 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 44.0% | 24.6% | High | 2,534 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona's 9th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 87.0% | 88.0% | High | 10,440 contracts | Refresh |
| Montana's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 11.0% | 6.4% | Med | 1,891 contracts | Refresh |
| Colorado's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 18+ pts | 88.0% | 91.4% | High | 4,636 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 13+ pts | 88.0% | 100.0% | High | 1,380 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will run for President of Brazil? Top outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 83.0% | 88.9% | Med | 99,455 contracts | Refresh |
| New York's 17th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | 1,727 contracts | Refresh |
| Connecticut's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 38+ pts | 8.3% | 10.1% | Med | 1,813 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 3.5% | 1.5% | Med | 40,853 contracts | Refresh |
| Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 38+ pts | 27.0% | 17.9% | High | 3,934 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 26.0% | 20.0% | High | 3,262 contracts | Refresh |
| Montana's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 48.0% | 38.0% | High | 1,890 contracts | Refresh |
| New Mexico's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 19+ pts | 12.0% | 8.7% | High | 4,908 contracts | Refresh |
| Indiana's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 90.0% | 93.0% | High | 1,477 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2029 | 9.2% | 6.9% | Med | 214,683 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 26+ pts | 23.0% | 17.7% | High | 5,519 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Greek general election? Top outcome: New Democracy | 77.0% | 89.7% | High | 4,348 contracts | Refresh |
| Nebraska's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 60+ pts | 11.0% | 20.6% | High | 1,728 contracts | Refresh |
| FL-09 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 42.0% | 34.0% | High | 20,997 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 4th District margin of victory Yes refers to: Democrats, 3+ pts | 7.1% | 5.3% | Med | 1,802 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 7.8% | 6.1% | High | 1,900 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Zach Wahls | 15.0% | 15.9% | High | 2,822 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 30+ pts | 90.4% | 87.3% | High | 2,166 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 1+ pts | 76.0% | 59.2% | Med | 2,767 contracts | Refresh |
| Ohio's 15th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 1+ pts | 20.0% | 20.1% | High | 3,327 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the 2028 presidential election occur? Yes refers to: In 2028 | 92.5% | 96.6% | Med | 58,354 contracts | Refresh |
| Minnesota's 8th District margin of victory Yes refers to: Democrats, 2+ pts | 16.0% | 10.5% | Med | 2,427 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 31+ pts | 91.0% | 91.7% | High | 2,679 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 7.4% | 4.9% | High | 2,945 contracts | Refresh |
| How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 79.0% | 76.7% | High | 108,537 contracts | Refresh |
| New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory Yes refers to: Republicans, 2+ pts | 8.9% | 6.1% | Med | 3,829 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 4+ pts | 11.0% | 11.4% | High | 3,544 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 28+ pts | 95.1% | 95.0% | High | 3,318 contracts | Refresh |
| Kansas's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 14+ pts | 39.0% | 73.1% | High | 5,578 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 27+ pts | 91.4% | 90.1% | High | 4,133 contracts | Refresh |
| São Paulo Governor winner? Top outcome: Tarcísio de Freitas | 91.0% | 91.7% | High | 24,389 contracts | Refresh |
| Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory Yes refers to: Democrats, 3+ pts | 12.0% | 12.0% | Med | 4,104 contracts | Refresh |
| Illinois's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 26+ pts | 92.1% | 90.0% | High | 5,396 contracts | Refresh |
| Kansas's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 1+ pts | 90.5% | 89.1% | High | 5,427 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 11+ pts | 50.0% | 58.0% | High | 6,437 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 13+ pts | 44.0% | 38.2% | High | 8,732 contracts | Refresh |
| Michigan's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 4+ pts | 17.0% | 9.9% | High | 6,140 contracts | Refresh |
| New Jersey's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 18+ pts | 11.0% | 11.4% | High | 6,583 contracts | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 7+ pts | 12.0% | 7.0% | Med | 7,829 contracts | Refresh |
| Indiana's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 1+ pts | 85.0% | 75.1% | High | 8,412 contracts | Refresh |
| Florida's 23rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 5+ pts | 80.0% | 85.3% | Med | 17,735 contracts | Refresh |
| Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 35.0% | 18.7% | High | 57,664 contracts | Refresh |
| Hawaii 02 House General Election: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 195K | 0.0% | 20.0% | High | 0 contracts | Refresh |
| Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 36.0% | 25.8% | Med | 6,458 contracts | Refresh |
| TX-32 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 81.0% | 64.8% | High | 9,087 contracts | Refresh |
| When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2027 | 42.0% | 34.8% | Med | 608 contracts | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? Top outcome: 10 | 51.0% | 38.2% | High | 57,720 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Nancy Mace resign before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026 | 8.1% | 6.0% | Med | 4,455 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Australian House election? Top outcome: Australian Labor Party | 59.0% | 47.0% | High | 16,038 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026 | 9.4% | 5.6% | Med | 737 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Rubio and Vance run for President? Yes refers to: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican | 53.0% | 58.9% | Med | 4,431 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election? Top outcome: Coalition including ODM | 56.0% | 57.2% | High | 9,371 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 57.0% | 49.0% | Med | 20,596 contracts | Refresh |
| Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro | 46.0% | 35.9% | High | 11,791 contracts | Refresh |
| Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027) Top outcome: Alexi Giannoulias | 56.0% | 48.1% | Med | 36,121 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election? Top outcome: Chris Murphy | 5.0% | 5.0% | High | 102,367 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | 144,798 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 13.1% | High | 66,066 contracts | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Top outcome: Below 53 | 81.0% | 70.1% | Med | 12,265 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? Top outcome: Javier Milei | 64.0% | 67.8% | High | 7,145 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Trump run for a third term? Top outcome: Before Election Day | 25.0% | 16.9% | High | 87,086 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election? Top outcome: Union of Greens and Farmers | 2.0% | 8.2% | High | 6,948 contracts | Refresh |
| Georgia: Which elections will be won outright? Top outcome: Governor | 76.0% | 65.0% | Med | 32,034 contracts | Refresh |
| 44.0% | 34.5% | Med | 3,671 contracts | Refresh | |
| Who will run for public office in 2026? Top outcome: Matthew McConaughey | 10.0% | 4.1% | Med | 99,234 contracts | Refresh |
| Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? Top outcome: Wilson Witzel | 5.0% | 97.0% | High | 1 contracts | Refresh |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? | 48.0% | 36.4% | Med | 176,557 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Top outcome: John Coupar | 12.0% | 11.2% | High | 35,821 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Presidential race: exact outcome Top outcome: Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance | 12.0% | 10.1% | High | 11,744 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election? Top outcome: Iliana Yotova | 57.0% | 42.9% | High | 14,485 contracts | Refresh |
| California Lieutenant Governor winner? Top outcome: Fiona Ma | 70.0% | 50.9% | High | 9,357 contracts | Refresh |
| How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? Top outcome: 5 or more | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | 40,211 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket Top outcome: Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 5.0% | 8.1% | High | 1,856 contracts | Refresh |
| 2026: Trump's dream year? Yes refers to: Yes | 6.0% | 8.7% | Med | 419,366 contracts | Refresh |
| CA-11 House winner? (Person) Top outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | High | 6,867 contracts | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 59.0% | 59.6% | High | 77,121 contracts | Refresh |
| 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Top outcome: Republicans win | 15.0% | 11.7% | Med | 116,454 contracts | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Exact Outcome Top outcome: Democratic party wins | 64.0% | 71.2% | Med | 2,669 contracts | Refresh |
| How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries? Top outcome: At least 3 | 87.0% | 75.2% | High | 9,508 contracts | Refresh |
| Minas Gerais Governor winner? Top outcome: Cleitinho Azevedo | 62.0% | 86.1% | High | 722 contracts | Refresh |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? Top outcome: Georgia | 7.8% | 13.4% | High | 75,489 contracts | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Dan McKee | 29.0% | 19.9% | High | 8,749 contracts | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 39.0% | 45.0% | High | 27,096 contracts | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Bernadette Wilson | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | 91,907 contracts | Refresh |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 24.0% | 15.9% | Med | 75,191 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? Yes refers to: Yes | 92.9% | 95.5% | Med | 63,502 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the Chicago mayoral election? Top outcome: Susan Mendoza | 16.0% | 12.4% | High | 24,001 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? Top outcome: Bennett 2026 | 5.1% | 16.8% | High | 50,327 contracts | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 0.0% | 0.1% | Med | 0 contracts | Refresh |
| Arizona State House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 47.0% | 41.4% | High | 28 contracts | Refresh |
| LA-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | High | 118 contracts | Refresh |
| TN-08 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | High | 4,750 contracts | Refresh |
| Deportations in 2026? Top outcome: Above 500,000 | 31.0% | 42.1% | High | 19,297 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? Top outcome: No new person | 55.0% | 42.2% | High | 16,666 contracts | Refresh |
| 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) Top outcome: Republican party | 37.0% | 36.2% | High | 398,853 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada? Yes refers to: Before the next general election | 22.0% | 10.9% | Med | 59,350 contracts | Refresh |
| Which party will win the next UK general election? Top outcome: Restore Britain party | 13.0% | 0.5% | High | 174,682 contracts | Refresh |
| EU loses a member before 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 14.0% | 10.6% | Med | 23,020 contracts | Refresh |
| Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 28.0% | 19.4% | Med | 1,602 contracts | Refresh |
| Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030? Top outcome: Hungary | 4.6% | 1.6% | Med | 11,539 contracts | Refresh |
| Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? Top outcome: Before 2030 | 12.0% | 11.6% | Med | 1,422 contracts | Refresh |
| What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU? Top outcome: Hungary | 3.0% | 1.2% | Med | 5,593 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election? Yes refers to: Before 2035 | 1.0% | 0.6% | Med | 17,181 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045? Yes refers to: Before 2045 | 14.0% | 10.6% | Med | 40,016 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor? Top outcome: Chen Jining | 1.0% | 1.0% | High | 12,465 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045? Yes refers to: Before 2045 | 6.0% | 6.5% | Med | 18,866 contracts | Refresh |
| Texas Senate: Exact outcome Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico | 39.0% | 34.2% | Med | 1,158 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will the next Pope be? Top outcome: Pietro Parolin | 8.2% | 22.3% | High | 77,974 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the House? Top outcome: Hakeem Jeffries | 79.0% | 59.2% | High | 16,077 contracts | Refresh |
| Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel? Top outcome: Naftali Bennett | 31.0% | 30.6% | High | 53,101 contracts | Refresh |
| Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 15.0% | 9.8% | Med | 15,061 contracts | Refresh |
| Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | 117,199 contracts | Refresh |
Expired Markets (222)
At least 55%
Market Model 10.0% 0.0%
At least 70%
Market Model 5.0% 0.0%
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Mike Mazzei, ≥6%
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Mike Mazzei, ≥3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Gentner Drummond, 0-3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Mike Mazzei, 0-3%
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 325k
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 300k
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least 35%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
At least 30%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Above 1.7M
Market Model 17.0% 0.0%
Above 1.45M
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least 50%
Market Model 99.0% 99.9%
At least 80%
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Ryan Elijah, 12-16%
Market Model 97.0% 69.0%
Ryan Elijah, ≥20%
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Dan J. Sullivan
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Dan S. Sullivan
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least 55%
Market Model 54.0% 35.0%
At least 60%
Market Model 31.0% 12.0%
At least 35%
Market Model 81.0% 72.8%
At least 40%
Market Model 80.0% 71.5%
At least 30%
Market Model 99.0% 98.5%
At least 50%
Market Model 85.0% 80.9%
Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Zambia Presidential Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
No Shutdown & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
No Shutdown & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Extended & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Extended & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Darline Graham
Market Model 86.0% 91.4%
Ralph Norman
Market Model 14.0% 5.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Francesca Hong
Market Model 90.2% 87.2%
David Crowley
Market Model 9.6% 10.2%
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Clacton by-election Winner Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
James Fishback
Market Model 2.2% 2.7%
Jay Collins
Market Model 0.3% 0.5%
At least 1%
Market Model 98.0% 96.8%
At least 20%
Market Model 19.0% 12.8%
Toby Doeden
Market Model 11.0% 8.6%
Larry Rhoden
Market Model 89.0% 91.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Jim Priest
Market Model 11.0% 8.3%
N’Kiyla Thomas
Market Model 88.0% 91.7%
Pamela Evette
Market Model 14.0% 11.8%
Alan Wilson
Market Model 85.0% 88.2%
Burt Jones
Market Model 77.0% 69.4%
Rick Jackson
Market Model 24.0% 30.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 0.8% 0.0%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 99.3% 100.0%
SC-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Mark Smith
Market Model 62.0% 60.9%
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Market Model 47.0% 39.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Bass, Raman, Pratt
Market Model 99.6% 100.0%
Raman, Bass, Pratt
Market Model 0.6% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Keiko Fujimori
Market Model 72.0% 60.3%
Roberto Sánchez
Market Model 29.0% 39.7%
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Market Model 87.0% 84.8%
2 Democrats
Market Model 17.0% 15.2%
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 36.0% 52.5%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 62.0% 47.5%
Abelardo de la Espriella
Market Model 82.0% 71.3%
Iván Cepeda Castro
Market Model 16.0% 28.6%
Ken Paxton, 20%+
Market Model 99.8% 99.9%
Ken Paxton, 15-20%
Market Model 0.2% 0.0%
CO-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Christina Blunt
Market Model 0.0% 46.9%
Kelley Dennison
Market Model 0.0% 53.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
CA-40 primary advancers? Kalshi
Esther Kim Varet
Market Model 39.0% 26.0%
Young Kim
Market Model 86.0% 81.5%
2026 Texas Senate matchup? Kalshi
Talarico vs. Paxton
Market Model 93.4% 94.0%
Talarico vs. Cornyn
Market Model 6.0% 6.0%
Ken Paxton
Market Model 93.9% 95.8%
John Cornyn
Market Model 6.7% 4.2%
MA-06 Republican nominee? Kalshi
John Field
Market Model 0.0% 47.8%
Micah Jones
Market Model 0.0% 52.2%
VA-10 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Anthony Suttles
Market Model 0.0% 27.0%
Julie Perry
Market Model 0.0% 27.0%
Randy Villegas
Market Model 44.0% 31.0%
Rudy Salas
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Labour Party
Market Model 93.0% 100.0%
Nationalist Party
Market Model 9.0% 0.0%
ND-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Alex Balazs
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Julie Fedorchak
Market Model 97.0% 92.0%
NY-05 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Alexandria Foxworth
Market Model 0.0% 53.1%
George Marsh
Market Model 0.0% 47.0%
Jim Risch
Market Model 97.2% 96.8%
Joe Evans
Market Model 3.8% 3.2%
Jamie Davis
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Gary Crockett
Market Model 2.0% 9.0%
AL-04 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Amanda Pusczek
Market Model 36.0% 73.8%
Shane Weaver
Market Model 9.3% 26.2%
Spencer Pratt wins
Market Model 31.0% 23.1%
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Market Model 14.0% 19.5%
Steve Hilton, 3+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
GA-10 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Millsap
Market Model 54.0% 46.5%
Houston Gaines
Market Model 46.0% 52.5%
Above 3.0M
Market Model 5.1% 20.1%
Above 2.6M
Market Model 3.1% 20.1%
NM-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Jose Orozco
Market Model 5.0% 80.0%
Greg Cunningham
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
IA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Christina Bohannan
Market Model 96.0% 93.0%
Travis Terrell
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
SD-AL Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Nikki Gronli
Market Model 97.0% 97.1%
Scott Schlagel
Market Model 4.0% 2.9%
Dave Bronson
Market Model 35.0% 22.2%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Market Model 52.0% 39.6%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 67.0% 57.6%
John Fleming
Market Model 31.0% 35.3%
ID-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Russ Fulcher
Market Model 99.0% 99.8%
Joseph Morrison
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
NE-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
John Cavanaugh
Market Model 60.0% 60.5%
Denise Powell
Market Model 41.0% 38.2%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 56.0%
Burt Jones, 3-6%
Market Model 96.0% 34.6%
Rick Jackson, 6-9%
Market Model 23.0% 8.5%
CA-07 primary: first place Kalshi
Doris Matsui
Market Model 88.0% 77.2%
Mai Vang
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
Yes
Market Model 41.0% 48.9%
Haley Stevens
Market Model 31.0% 30.6%
Mallory McMorrow
Market Model 31.0% 24.3%
Senate Republican primary
Market Model 25.0% 13.7%
Governor Republican primary
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
CA-12 primary: first place Kalshi
Lateefah Simon
Market Model 91.0% 99.6%
Jamie Joyce
Market Model 0.0% 0.4%
TX-18 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Christian Menefee
Market Model 94.3% 95.6%
Al Green
Market Model 6.0% 4.4%
Robb Tucker
Market Model 69.0% 47.8%
Christine Bish
Market Model 22.0% 11.5%
NJ-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Robert Menendez Jr.
Market Model 89.0% 91.7%
Mussab Ali
Market Model 13.0% 8.3%
Above 64
Market Model 5.1% 5.2%
Above 60
Market Model 70.0% 51.8%
Yes
Market Model 95.0% 95.7%
Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga
Market Model 4.0% 3.2%
Keiko Fujimori vs. Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Market Model 98.0% 85.7%
WV-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Brit Aguirre
Market Model 78.0% 89.1%
Vince George
Market Model 22.0% 10.9%
Christopher Gonzales
Market Model 7.5% 4.6%
Eric Troutman
Market Model 26.0% 13.6%
Diego Morales
Market Model 81.0% 47.9%
David Shelton
Market Model 91.0% 51.7%
Hilda Solis
Market Model 98.0% 98.1%
Monica Sanchez
Market Model 34.0% 18.4%
Viktor Orbán
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Péter Magyar
Market Model 99.8% 99.9%
CA-32 primary: first place Kalshi
Brad Sherman
Market Model 96.0% 92.6%
Marena Lin
Market Model 8.0% 1.6%
Above 60k
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Above 90k
Market Model 52.0% 53.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 22.0%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 94.3% 91.9%
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 79.0% 69.7%
Ceci Truman
Market Model 28.0% 16.1%
Joe Males
Market Model 77.0% 69.9%
TX-33 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Colin Allred
Market Model 79.0% 82.5%
Julie Johnson
Market Model 23.0% 17.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
MI-11 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jeremy Moss
Market Model 93.0% 88.5%
Dave Woodward
Market Model 0.6% 0.5%
Jeff Kessler
Market Model 87.0% 83.6%
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Chip Roy
Market Model 38.0% 29.5%
Mayes Middleton
Market Model 67.0% 70.5%
Laura Friedman
Market Model 99.1% 98.8%
Scott Meyers
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.8% 6.8%
Xavier Becerra, 1+ pts
Market Model 36.0% 21.9%
Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts
Market Model 27.0% 16.0%
Tom Steyer, 5+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 5.8%
Tom Steyer, 3+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 12.3%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 49.0% 36.3%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 98.8% 98.4%
Maxine Waters
Market Model 97.9% 98.0%
David Sedlik
Market Model 7.5% 2.9%
Carlos Álvarez, ≥5%
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Keiko Fujimori, 0-5%
Market Model 4.0% 4.6%
NJ-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Tiffany Burress
Market Model 10.0% 6.7%
Rosie Pino
Market Model 86.0% 93.3%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 62.0% 51.2%
Matt Mahan
Market Model 5.6% 2.0%
Above 1.0M
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Above 900k
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model 0.0% 65.3%
TX-38 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Jon Bonck
Market Model 98.6% 97.8%
Shelly DeZevallos
Market Model 4.5% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
Mike Rogers
Market Model 99.0% 93.4%
Kent Benham
Market Model 1.0% 0.8%
Salud Carbajal
Market Model 95.8% 94.5%
Sarah Bacon
Market Model 7.1% 2.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
ID-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Kaylee Peterson
Market Model 98.0% 96.1%
Ken Brungardt
Market Model 7.0% 3.9%
NV-02 Republican nominee? Kalshi
David Flippo
Market Model 53.0% 37.1%
James Settelmeyer
Market Model 52.0% 49.5%
MO-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Cori Bush
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Wesley Bell
Market Model 68.0% 68.8%
OR-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Maxine Dexter
Market Model 99.0% 88.4%
Jessica Salas
Market Model 9.0% 8.0%
Robert White
Market Model 59.0% 44.3%
Brooke Pinto
Market Model 27.0% 23.4%
Andy Biggs
Market Model 96.9% 65.9%
Karrin Taylor Robson
Market Model 1.0% 21.0%
Bob Trammell
Market Model 6.3% 18.0%
Tanya Miller
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
Tim Walz
Market Model 1.6% 0.0%
Amy Klobuchar
Market Model 93.0% 78.9%
Billy Webster
Market Model 18.0% 16.2%
Jermaine Johnson
Market Model 72.0% 64.9%
Sam Bregman
Market Model 13.0% 11.1%
Deb Haaland
Market Model 86.0% 87.1%
NY-17 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Beth Davidson
Market Model 43.0% 28.8%
Cait Conley
Market Model 50.0% 33.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Sharice Davids
Market Model 15.0% 15.6%
Noah Taylor
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
ME-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Ronald Russell
Market Model 95.0% 87.0%
Joshua Pietrowicz
Market Model 33.0% 13.0%
Civil Contract
Market Model 92.0% 84.8%
Armenia Alliance
Market Model 3.3% 3.1%
OH-12 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jerrad Christian
Market Model 95.3% 91.4%
Jason Reynard
Market Model 9.0% 8.6%
Phil Weiser
Market Model 32.0% 26.1%
Michael Bennet
Market Model 73.0% 73.1%
Amy McGrath
Market Model 12.0% 11.5%
Charles Booker
Market Model 87.0% 83.2%
Graham Platner, ≥50%
Market Model 20.0% 18.8%
Graham Platner, 30-40%
Market Model 20.0% 18.8%
Mike Lindell
Market Model 15.0% 15.5%
Lisa Demuth
Market Model 63.0% 62.5%
Nirav Shah
Market Model 21.0% 29.7%
Troy Jackson
Market Model 4.4% 22.1%
NH-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Stefany Shaheen
Market Model 61.0% 62.8%
Maura Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 28.1%
MT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Busse
Market Model 56.0% 53.6%
Sam Forstag
Market Model 26.0% 33.5%
NY-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Antonio Reynoso
Market Model 24.0% 26.3%
Claire Valdez
Market Model 74.0% 66.2%
Allen Waters
Market Model 7.0% 3.4%
Raymond McKay
Market Model 87.0% 96.6%
Jerri Green
Market Model 86.0% 76.7%
Adam Kurtz
Market Model 11.0% 11.3%
MA-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Dan Koh
Market Model 79.0% 76.2%
Seth Moulton
Market Model 3.0% 15.9%
NE-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chris Backemeyer
Market Model 94.0% 94.2%
Eric Moyer
Market Model 8.0% 5.8%
Aaron Ford
Market Model 98.1% 96.3%
Steve Sisolak
Market Model 1.7% 1.8%
Newark Mayor winner? Kalshi
Ras Baraka
Market Model 96.5% 94.3%
Douglas R. Davis
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
MD-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Adrian Boafo
Market Model 61.0% 38.4%
Rushern Baker III
Market Model 14.0% 7.7%
IN-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
J.D. Ford
Market Model 92.2% 87.2%
Jackson Franklin
Market Model 8.3% 8.2%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 72.0% 60.2%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 21.0% 20.1%
Mike Mazzei
Market Model 28.0% 23.5%
Gentner Drummond
Market Model 52.0% 38.0%
Plaid Cymru
Market Model 86.0% 67.1%
Reform
Market Model 3.6% 23.6%
Lindsey Graham
Market Model 87.0% 86.2%
Paul Dans
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
NY-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chi Ossé
Market Model 7.2% 5.2%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 97.5% 88.0%
Bill Cassidy, 9%+
Market Model 1.0% 4.1%
Bill Cassidy, 3-6%
Market Model 1.0% 8.1%
Michael Minogue
Market Model 80.0% 93.4%
Brian Shortsleeve
Market Model 6.0% 5.9%
Mejia, 24% and above
Market Model 0.3% 1.3%
Mejia, 16-20%
Market Model 0.5% 3.3%
Yes
Market Model — —
Jocelyn Benson
Market Model 89.0% 92.5%
Chris Swanson
Market Model 6.7% 6.8%
MA-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Katherine Clark
Market Model 88.0% 99.8%
Jonathan Paz
Market Model 12.0% 0.1%
Janez Janša
Market Model 83.0% 70.5%
Robert Golob
Market Model 7.0% 4.5%
CA-04 primary advancers? Kalshi
Mike Thompson
Market Model 97.7% 97.4%
Eric Jones
Market Model 90.0% 93.0%
Laurel Libby
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Jonathan Bush
Market Model 23.0% 22.9%
SNP
Market Model 99.9% 94.7%
Conservatives
Market Model 0.1% 1.7%
SC-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jim Clyburn
Market Model 96.0% 99.0%
Frederick Goodwin
Market Model 9.0% 1.0%
PA-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Crosswell
Market Model 27.0% 32.7%
Bob Brooks
Market Model 71.0% 58.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Los Angeles mayor matchup Kalshi
Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 53.5%
Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
T.W. Shannon
Market Model 89.0% 86.2%
Cindy Byrd
Market Model 2.0% 1.6%
NY-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Market Model 47.0% 21.2%
Adriano Espaillat
Market Model 56.0% 55.1%
AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Amish Shah
Market Model 72.0% 69.3%
Marlene Galán-Woods
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
Barry Moore
Market Model 90.1% 78.1%
Jared Hudson
Market Model 9.9% 16.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
UT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ben McAdams
Market Model 76.0% 85.8%
Nate Blouin
Market Model 24.0% 8.3%
NJ-12 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Adam Hamawy
Market Model 52.0% 26.4%
Sue Altman
Market Model 15.0% 9.1%
NY-15 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Michael Blake
Market Model 15.0% 3.1%
Ritchie Torres
Market Model 85.0% 90.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Megan Degenfelder
Market Model 77.0% 77.5%
Eric Barlow
Market Model 28.0% 18.3%
Angie Craig
Market Model 26.0% 18.4%
Peggy Flanagan
Market Model 76.0% 72.8%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 59.0% 55.6%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 11.0% 12.8%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 62.0% 61.2%
John Fleming
Market Model 39.0% 26.5%
GA-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jasmine Clark
Market Model 79.0% 75.6%
Everton Blair Jr.
Market Model 18.0% 7.6%
PA-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chris Rabb
Market Model 38.0% 39.2%
Sharif Street
Market Model 63.0% 40.3%
MN-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Matt Little
Market Model 69.0% 76.4%
Matt Klein
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
4 or more
Market Model 12.0% 11.3%
2
Market Model 41.0% 38.7%
Randy Feenstra
Market Model 74.0% 69.3%
Zach Lahn
Market Model 17.0% 9.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
KY-06 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Cherlynn Stevenson
Market Model 47.0% 41.7%
Zach Dembo
Market Model 46.0% 31.8%
Rafael López Aliaga
Market Model 2.1% 2.9%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Market Model 95.8% 93.7%
Above 1.2M
Market Model 99.5% 99.6%
Above 1.4M
Market Model 99.7% 99.4%
OH-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Derek Merrin
Market Model 86.0% 88.0%
Madison Sheahan
Market Model 0.3% 0.3%
Jay Collins
Market Model 19.0% 24.9%
James Fishback
Market Model 50.0% 58.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
UT-03 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Celeste Maloy
Market Model 70.0% 75.5%
Phil Lyman
Market Model 29.0% 24.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Mike Collins
Market Model 87.0% 61.5%
Brian Kemp
Market Model 1.0% 0.4%
Zach Wahls
Market Model 22.0% 32.7%
Josh Turek
Market Model 75.0% 65.1%
NY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Anthony D’Esposito
Market Model 0.4% 20.0%
Don Clavin
Market Model 3.6% 1.0%
Perry Johnson
Market Model 56.0% 41.8%
John James
Market Model 39.0% 36.8%
Christine Drazan
Market Model 86.0% 78.3%
Chris Dudley
Market Model 5.0% 5.5%
Andy Barr
Market Model 95.1% 72.8%
Nate Morris
Market Model 0.9% 6.9%
Keiko Fujimori
Market Model 96.4% 89.4%
Carlos Álvarez
Market Model 0.1% 2.8%
Iván Cepeda Castro
Market Model 89.0% 92.8%
Abelardo de la Espriella
Market Model 15.0% 6.4%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 51.0% 36.4%
Haley Stevens
Market Model 21.0% 26.3%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Market Model 86.0% 68.5%
Michael Thurmond
Market Model 13.0% 14.0%
Pete Ricketts
Market Model 96.0% 98.9%
Edward Dunn
Market Model 2.5% 1.1%
KY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Thomas Massie
Market Model 44.0% 71.9%
Ed Gallrein
Market Model 58.0% 27.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Market Model 98.2% 95.3%
Casey Putsch
Market Model 2.7% 3.0%
Yes, 0-3%
Market Model 0.7% 1.6%
No, 0-3%
Market Model 0.5% 0.9%
SC-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Nancy Lacore
Market Model 81.0% 69.2%
Mac Deford
Market Model 20.0% 24.7%
April Verlato
Market Model 94.7% 96.9%
Peter Roybal
Market Model 36.0% 11.5%
Chong Won-o
Market Model 89.0% 71.1%
Oh Se-hoon
Market Model 10.0% 13.4%
California Governor matchup? Kalshi
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton
Market Model 93.0% 14.7%
Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer
Market Model 7.0% 10.0%
Graham Platner
Market Model 98.2% 81.8%
Janet Mills
Market Model 1.4% 13.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Rupert Lowe
Market Model 6.0% 6.0%
Nigel Farage
Market Model 10.0% 16.4%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA-01 Democratic primary: Richard Neal vote percent Top outcome: At least 55% | 10.0% | 0.0% | High | 19,786 contracts | |
| — | — | High | $285,812,184 | ||
| Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum Yes refers to: Yes | 1.0% | 0.6% | Med | 55,963 contracts | |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? (Mike Mazzei) Top outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | High | 19,445 contracts | |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? Top outcome: Gentner Drummond, 0-3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | 96,840 contracts | |
| South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 325k | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | 674,052 contracts | |
| FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent Top outcome: At least 35% | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | 33,390 contracts | |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.7M | 17.0% | 0.0% | High | 300,372 contracts | |
| FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent Top outcome: At least 50% | 99.0% | 99.9% | High | 43,299 contracts | |
| FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory? Top outcome: Ryan Elijah, 12-16% | 97.0% | 69.0% | High | 28,793 contracts | |
| Alaska Senate: who will advance? Top outcome: Dan J. Sullivan | 99.0% | 100.0% | Med | 152,605 contracts | |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent Top outcome: At least 55% | 54.0% | 35.0% | High | 218,498 contracts | |
| FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent Top outcome: At least 35% | 81.0% | 72.8% | Med | 4,984 contracts | |
| Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent Top outcome: At least 30% | 99.0% | 98.5% | High | 9,711 contracts | |
| — | — | High | $206,446 | ||
| — | — | High | $213,125 | ||
| — | — | High | $212,966 | ||
| — | — | High | $216,346 | ||
| — | — | High | $230,447 | ||
| — | — | Med | $263,509 | ||
| — | — | High | $269,736 | ||
| — | — | High | $286,477 | ||
| — | — | Med | $293,543 | ||
| Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: No Shutdown & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | $332,397 | |
| ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Extended & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | $404,572 | |
| — | — | High | $450,678 | ||
| South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? Top outcome: Darline Graham | 86.0% | 91.4% | Med | 9,776,546 contracts | |
| — | — | High | $3,667 | ||
| Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Francesca Hong | 90.2% | 87.2% | High | 3,644,619 contracts | |
| — | — | High | $663,378 | ||
| — | — | Med | $782,938 | ||
| — | — | Med | $872,456 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,609,876 | ||
| — | — | High | $3,817,175 | ||
| Florida Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: James Fishback | 2.2% | 2.7% | High | 16,932,842 contracts | |
| Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent Top outcome: At least 1% | 98.0% | 96.8% | High | 1,420,274 contracts | |
| South Dakota Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Toby Doeden | 11.0% | 8.6% | High | 1,189,686 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 6,658,053 contracts | ||
| Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jim Priest | 11.0% | 8.3% | High | 30,241 contracts | |
| South Carolina Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Pamela Evette | 14.0% | 11.8% | High | 2,485,135 contracts | |
| Georgia Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Burt Jones | 77.0% | 69.4% | High | 1,331,421 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 7,464 contracts | ||
| California Governor primary: 1st place Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 0.8% | 0.0% | High | 5,761,176 contracts | |
| SC-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Mark Smith | 62.0% | 60.9% | High | 131,782 contracts | |
| Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner Top outcome: Karen Bass | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | 3,696,241 contracts | |
| Los Angeles mayoral primary: exact place Top outcome: Bass, Raman, Pratt | 99.6% | 100.0% | High | 505,361 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 16,863 contracts | ||
| Peru Presidential election winner? Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori | 72.0% | 60.3% | High | 4,672,737 contracts | |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Top outcome: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | 87.0% | 84.8% | Med | 1,518,437 contracts | |
| Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 36.0% | 52.5% | Med | 2,219,194 contracts | |
| Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? Top outcome: Abelardo de la Espriella | 82.0% | 71.3% | High | 1,359,861 contracts | |
| Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 99.8% | 99.9% | High | 3,541,667 contracts | |
| CO-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Christina Blunt | 0.0% | 46.9% | High | 0 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 17,635 contracts | ||
| CA-40 primary advancers? Top outcome: Esther Kim Varet | 39.0% | 26.0% | Med | 50,178 contracts | |
| 2026 Texas Senate matchup? Top outcome: Talarico vs. Paxton | 93.4% | 94.0% | High | 3,107,882 contracts | |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 93.9% | 95.8% | High | 14,028,914 contracts | |
| MA-06 Republican nominee? Top outcome: John Field | 0.0% | 47.8% | High | 0 contracts | |
| VA-10 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony Suttles | 0.0% | 27.0% | High | 0 contracts | |
| Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Top outcome: Randy Villegas | 44.0% | 31.0% | Med | 38,058 contracts | |
| Malta Parliamentary Election Winner Top outcome: Labour Party | 93.0% | 100.0% | High | 4,593 contracts | |
| ND-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% | High | 2,564 contracts | |
| NY-05 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alexandria Foxworth | 0.0% | 53.1% | High | 0 contracts | |
| Idaho Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jim Risch | 97.2% | 96.8% | High | 3,147 contracts | |
| Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 86.0% | 85.0% | High | 17,160 contracts | |
| AL-04 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amanda Pusczek | 36.0% | 73.8% | High | 4,400 contracts | |
| Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory Top outcome: Spencer Pratt wins | 31.0% | 23.1% | High | 35,505 contracts | |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Steve Hilton, 3+ pts | 19.0% | 11.1% | High | 12,713 contracts | |
| GA-10 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Millsap | 54.0% | 46.5% | High | 27,840 contracts | |
| Voter turnout for the Virginia redistricting referendum? Top outcome: Above 3.0M | 5.1% | 20.1% | High | 764,655 contracts | |
| NM-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jose Orozco | 5.0% | 80.0% | High | 1 contracts | |
| IA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christina Bohannan | 96.0% | 93.0% | High | 8,757 contracts | |
| SD-AL Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nikki Gronli | 97.0% | 97.1% | High | 28,123 contracts | |
| Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? Top outcome: Dave Bronson | 35.0% | 22.2% | Med | 49,234 contracts | |
| Louisiana Republican Senate primary: first round winner Top outcome: Julia Letlow | 67.0% | 57.6% | High | 17,457 contracts | |
| ID-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Russ Fulcher | 99.0% | 99.8% | High | 10,995 contracts | |
| NE-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: John Cavanaugh | 60.0% | 60.5% | High | 49,296 contracts | |
| 2026 Republican Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 56.0% | Med | 26,777 contracts | |
| Georgia Republican Governor primary: first round margin of victory Top outcome: Burt Jones, 3-6% | 96.0% | 34.6% | High | 1,736 contracts | |
| CA-07 primary: first place Top outcome: Doris Matsui | 88.0% | 77.2% | High | 13,851 contracts | |
| Will the Switzerland 10 million population cap referendum pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 41.0% | 48.9% | Med | 10,874 contracts | |
| Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place Top outcome: Haley Stevens | 31.0% | 30.6% | High | 4,394 contracts | |
| Which Georgia primary elections will have a first-round winner? Top outcome: Senate Republican primary | 25.0% | 13.7% | Med | 24,435 contracts | |
| CA-12 primary: first place Top outcome: Lateefah Simon | 91.0% | 99.6% | High | 18,076 contracts | |
| TX-18 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christian Menefee | 94.3% | 95.6% | High | 84,606 contracts | |
| CA-03 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Robb Tucker | 69.0% | 47.8% | Med | 33,229 contracts | |
| NJ-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Robert Menendez Jr. | 89.0% | 91.7% | High | 22,456 contracts | |
| How many seats will the SNP win in the Scottish Parliament election? Top outcome: Above 64 | 5.1% | 5.2% | High | 34,653 contracts | |
| Will the Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes refers to: Green Party | 95.0% | 95.7% | Med | 15,361 contracts | |
| Peru presidential election matchup Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori vs. Rafael López Aliaga | 4.0% | 3.2% | High | 499,086 contracts | |
| WV-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Brit Aguirre | 78.0% | 89.1% | High | 4,372 contracts | |
| CA-47 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Christopher Gonzales | 7.5% | 4.6% | Med | 18,826 contracts | |
| Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Top outcome: Diego Morales | 81.0% | 47.9% | High | 25,238 contracts | |
| CA-38 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Hilda Solis | 98.0% | 98.1% | Med | 26,982 contracts | |
| Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2026 election? Top outcome: Viktor Orbán | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 3,517,055 contracts | |
| CA-32 primary: first place Top outcome: Brad Sherman | 96.0% | 92.6% | High | 7,299 contracts | |
| KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 60k | 96.0% | 96.0% | High | 20,458 contracts | |
| 2026 Democratic Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 17.0% | 22.0% | Med | 121,044 contracts | |
| Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Top outcome: Scott Wiener | 94.3% | 91.9% | Med | 100,610 contracts | |
| CA-25 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Ceci Truman | 28.0% | 16.1% | Med | 9,318 contracts | |
| TX-33 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Colin Allred | 79.0% | 82.5% | High | 248,958 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 6,956 contracts | ||
| MI-11 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jeremy Moss | 93.0% | 88.5% | High | 7,763 contracts | |
| West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jeff Kessler | 87.0% | 83.6% | High | 19,233 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 180,295 contracts | ||
| Texas Republican Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Chip Roy | 38.0% | 29.5% | High | 193,445 contracts | |
| CA-30 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Laura Friedman | 99.1% | 98.8% | Med | 77,961 contracts | |
| Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round? Yes refers to: First-round winner | 9.8% | 6.8% | Med | 15,569 contracts | |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Xavier Becerra, 1+ pts | 36.0% | 21.9% | High | 4,847 contracts | |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Tom Steyer, 5+ pts | 10.0% | 5.8% | Med | 11,793 contracts | |
| CA-14 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Rakhi Israni Singh | 49.0% | 36.3% | Med | 75,946 contracts | |
| CA-43 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Maxine Waters | 97.9% | 98.0% | Med | 8,974 contracts | |
| Peru presidential first round: margin of victory Top outcome: Carlos Álvarez, ≥5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | High | 206,861 contracts | |
| NJ-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Tiffany Burress | 10.0% | 6.7% | High | 14,991 contracts | |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Person) Top outcome: Xavier Becerra | 62.0% | 51.2% | Med | 829,852 contracts | |
| Ohio Republican Governor primary: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.0M | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | 106,614 contracts | |
| Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 0.0% | 65.3% | High | 13,098 contracts | |
| TX-38 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jon Bonck | 98.6% | 97.8% | High | 37,086 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 16,692 contracts | ||
| Michigan Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 99.0% | 93.4% | High | 2,830 contracts | |
| CA-24 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: Salud Carbajal | 95.8% | 94.5% | Med | 10,875 contracts | |
| — | — | Low | 0 contracts | ||
| ID-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Kaylee Peterson | 98.0% | 96.1% | High | 5,390 contracts | |
| NV-02 Republican nominee? Top outcome: David Flippo | 53.0% | 37.1% | High | 11,446 contracts | |
| MO-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cori Bush | 37.0% | 31.2% | High | 13,251 contracts | |
| OR-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Maxine Dexter | 99.0% | 88.4% | High | 9,266 contracts | |
| DC Democratic House delegate nominee? Top outcome: Robert White | 59.0% | 44.3% | High | 6,960 contracts | |
| Arizona Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Andy Biggs | 96.9% | 65.9% | High | 59,443 contracts | |
| Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Bob Trammell | 6.3% | 18.0% | High | 12,631 contracts | |
| Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Tim Walz | 1.6% | 0.0% | High | 444,024 contracts | |
| South Carolina Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Billy Webster | 18.0% | 16.2% | Med | 2,611 contracts | |
| New Mexico Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Sam Bregman | 13.0% | 11.1% | High | 33,451 contracts | |
| NY-17 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Beth Davidson | 43.0% | 28.8% | High | 17,333 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 10,208 contracts | ||
| Kansas Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Sharice Davids | 15.0% | 15.6% | High | 26,398 contracts | |
| ME-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Ronald Russell | 95.0% | 87.0% | High | 1,005 contracts | |
| Who will win the next Armenian parliamentary election? Top outcome: Civil Contract | 92.0% | 84.8% | High | 9,284 contracts | |
| OH-12 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jerrad Christian | 95.3% | 91.4% | High | 115 contracts | |
| Colorado Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Phil Weiser | 32.0% | 26.1% | High | 32,084 contracts | |
| Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Amy McGrath | 12.0% | 11.5% | High | 14,814 contracts | |
| Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary? Top outcome: Graham Platner, ≥50% | 20.0% | 18.8% | High | 4,707 contracts | |
| Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Mike Lindell | 15.0% | 15.5% | High | 115,661 contracts | |
| Maine Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Nirav Shah | 21.0% | 29.7% | High | 42,644 contracts | |
| NH-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Stefany Shaheen | 61.0% | 62.8% | High | 5,699 contracts | |
| MT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Busse | 56.0% | 53.6% | High | 17,019 contracts | |
| NY-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Antonio Reynoso | 24.0% | 26.3% | High | 57,706 contracts | |
| Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Allen Waters | 7.0% | 3.4% | High | 5,199 contracts | |
| Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 86.0% | 76.7% | High | 8,538 contracts | |
| MA-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Dan Koh | 79.0% | 76.2% | High | 11,518 contracts | |
| NE-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Backemeyer | 94.0% | 94.2% | High | 1,677 contracts | |
| Nevada Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Ford | 98.1% | 96.3% | High | 8,379 contracts | |
| Newark Mayor winner? Top outcome: Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | High | 6,047 contracts | |
| MD-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Adrian Boafo | 61.0% | 38.4% | High | 12,269 contracts | |
| IN-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: J.D. Ford | 92.2% | 87.2% | Med | 17,562 contracts | |
| CA-14 special election winner Top outcome: Aisha Wahab | 72.0% | 60.2% | High | 11,476 contracts | |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Mike Mazzei | 28.0% | 23.5% | High | 67,236 contracts | |
| Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election? Top outcome: Plaid Cymru | 86.0% | 67.1% | High | 29,548 contracts | |
| South Carolina Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Lindsey Graham | 87.0% | 86.2% | High | 151,849 contracts | |
| NY-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chi Ossé | 7.2% | 5.2% | High | 33,298 contracts | |
| Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory Top outcome: Bill Cassidy, 9%+ | 1.0% | 4.1% | Med | 39,535 contracts | |
| Massachusetts Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Michael Minogue | 80.0% | 93.4% | High | 33,905 contracts | |
| 2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory? Top outcome: Mejia, 24% and above | 0.3% | 1.3% | High | 658,631 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 11,956 contracts | ||
| Michigan Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jocelyn Benson | 89.0% | 92.5% | High | 43,596 contracts | |
| MA-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Katherine Clark | 88.0% | 99.8% | High | 1,209 contracts | |
| Who will be Prime Minister of Slovenia after their election? Top outcome: Janez Janša | 83.0% | 70.5% | High | 68,704 contracts | |
| CA-04 primary advancers? Top outcome: Mike Thompson | 97.7% | 97.4% | Med | 18,901 contracts | |
| Maine Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Laurel Libby | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | 56,283 contracts | |
| Who will win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? Top outcome: SNP | 99.9% | 94.7% | High | 20,986 contracts | |
| SC-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jim Clyburn | 96.0% | 99.0% | High | 911 contracts | |
| PA-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Crosswell | 27.0% | 32.7% | High | 32,456 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 8,130 contracts | ||
| Los Angeles mayor matchup Top outcome: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 62.0% | 53.5% | Med | 9,344 contracts | |
| Oklahoma Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee? Top outcome: T.W. Shannon | 89.0% | 86.2% | High | 14,552 contracts | |
| NY-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier | 47.0% | 21.2% | High | 13,494 contracts | |
| AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amish Shah | 72.0% | 69.3% | High | 19,662 contracts | |
| Alabama Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Barry Moore | 90.1% | 78.1% | High | 110,148 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 11,761 contracts | ||
| UT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | High | 19,782 contracts | |
| NJ-12 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Adam Hamawy | 52.0% | 26.4% | Med | 5,155 contracts | |
| NY-15 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Michael Blake | 15.0% | 3.1% | Med | 16,177 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 5,389 contracts | ||
| Wyoming Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Megan Degenfelder | 77.0% | 77.5% | High | 12,535 contracts | |
| Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Angie Craig | 26.0% | 18.4% | High | 61,356 contracts | |
| Who will lead the next qualifying poll in the California governor's race? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 59.0% | 55.6% | High | 1,524 contracts | |
| Louisiana Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Julia Letlow | 62.0% | 61.2% | High | 154,383 contracts | |
| GA-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jasmine Clark | 79.0% | 75.6% | High | 6,878 contracts | |
| PA-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Rabb | 38.0% | 39.2% | High | 53,907 contracts | |
| MN-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | High | 22,259 contracts | |
| How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026? Top outcome: 4 or more | 12.0% | 11.3% | High | 342,264 contracts | |
| Iowa Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Randy Feenstra | 74.0% | 69.3% | High | 59,213 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 604,418 contracts | ||
| KY-06 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cherlynn Stevenson | 47.0% | 41.7% | High | 14,160 contracts | |
| Peru presidential election: first round second place? Top outcome: Rafael López Aliaga | 2.1% | 2.9% | High | 399,235 contracts | |
| Voter turnout in the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election? Top outcome: Above 1.2M | 99.5% | 99.6% | High | 76,738 contracts | |
| OH-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Derek Merrin | 86.0% | 88.0% | High | 34,702 contracts | |
| Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place Top outcome: Jay Collins | 19.0% | 24.9% | High | 4,747 contracts | |
| — | — | Med | 10,023 contracts | ||
| UT-03 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Celeste Maloy | 70.0% | 75.5% | High | 16,485 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 246,311 contracts | ||
| Georgia Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Mike Collins | 87.0% | 61.5% | High | 151,294 contracts | |
| Iowa Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Zach Wahls | 22.0% | 32.7% | High | 45,031 contracts | |
| NY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony D’Esposito | 0.4% | 20.0% | High | 36,239 contracts | |
| Michigan Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Perry Johnson | 56.0% | 41.8% | High | 159,845 contracts | |
| Oregon Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Christine Drazan | 86.0% | 78.3% | High | 78,551 contracts | |
| Kentucky Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Andy Barr | 95.1% | 72.8% | High | 159,604 contracts | |
| Peru presidential election: first round winner? Top outcome: Keiko Fujimori | 96.4% | 89.4% | High | 270,218 contracts | |
| Colombian presidential election first round winner? Top outcome: Iván Cepeda Castro | 89.0% | 92.8% | High | 136,411 contracts | |
| Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Abdul El-Sayed | 51.0% | 36.4% | High | 399,844 contracts | |
| Georgia Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Keisha Lance Bottoms | 86.0% | 68.5% | High | 182,066 contracts | |
| Nebraska Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Pete Ricketts | 96.0% | 98.9% | High | 3,255 contracts | |
| KY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Thomas Massie | 44.0% | 71.9% | Med | 1,242,330 contracts | |
| Ohio Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Vivek Ramaswamy | 98.2% | 95.3% | High | 760,263 contracts | |
| Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory? Top outcome: Yes, 0-3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | Med | 6,428,408 contracts | |
| SC-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | High | 13,788 contracts | |
| CA-28 primary: Who will advance? Top outcome: April Verlato | 94.7% | 96.9% | Med | 2,440 contracts | |
| Who will win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Top outcome: Chong Won-o | 89.0% | 71.1% | High | 57,396 contracts | |
| California Governor matchup? Top outcome: Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton | 93.0% | 14.7% | Med | 209,347 contracts | |
| Maine Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Graham Platner | 98.2% | 81.8% | High | 2,568,406 contracts | |
| — | — | High | 572,720 contracts | ||
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? Top outcome: Rupert Lowe | 6.0% | 6.0% | High | 457,285 contracts | |
| Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? Yes refers to: Yes | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | 32,029 contracts |
