FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Randy Fine to secure at least 40% of the vote in the FL-06 Republican primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Fine is likely to achieve 50%+ vote share, given Speaker Johnson's public endorsement.
- Fine's past 83% special primary victory makes 70%+ vote share plausible.
- The last-minute FBI referral against his opponent may further boost Fine's vote.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 98.0% | 97.0% | Fine's strong primary record, fundraising, and recent endorsements support this vote share. |
| At least 70% | 79.0% | 71.8% | Fine previously won a primary with over 83%, and has recent positive developments. |
| At least 80% | 17.0% | 15.3% | Randy Fine previously won a primary with over 83% of the vote, making this plausible. |
| At least 75% | 35.0% | 30.8% | Fine previously won a special primary in January 2025 with over 83%, making this achievable. |
| At least 65% | 79.0% | 72.0% | Fine previously won a primary with over 83%, and Speaker Johnson endorsed him. |
Current Context
Florida's FL-06 primary election results are not yet available. The Republican primary election for U.S. House District 6 (FL-06), featuring incumbent Randy Fine, is underway today, August 18, 2026. Polls are either open or recently closed, with final closures scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT; consequently, no official certified results or final vote percentages for candidate Fine are currently accessible [^][^][^]. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, indicated high confidence in Fine's nomination prospects prior to election day, with implied victory probabilities around 97% as of early August 2026 [^].
Randy Fine's campaign saw significant last-minute developments. In the final days before the primary, Representative Fine filed a referral with the FBI, alleging his primary opponent, Dan Bilzerian, and Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini, were involved in a $1 million illegal campaign spending scheme, potentially involving foreign funds [^][^][^]. Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson publicly endorsed Randy Fine on August 17, 2026, condemning antisemitic attacks directed at the incumbent [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which prices the expected vote share for Randy Fine in the FL-06 Republican primary, has shown a consistent and strengthening conviction in a high-percentage victory. The contract opened at 91.0% on August 14 and has trended steadily upward, reaching 98.0% on election day, August 18. This price action suggests an established consensus that solidified as voting commenced. The market's current price aligns with other prediction market data from early August, which indicated an implied victory probability of around 97% for Fine's nomination.
The primary driver for the price appreciation from 91.0% to 98.0% is the event itself: the primary election is currently underway. Markets of this type often see prices firm up and volatility decrease as the resolution event becomes imminent and no new, disruptive information emerges. The price is converging on what traders perceive as the most likely outcome as polls close. The total traded volume of 3,559 contracts indicates a moderate level of participation over the contract's life, suggesting capital was deployed to support this high valuation.
The market has established clear support near the 91.0% opening level and has since broken through a subsequent level at 95.0%. The current price of 98.0% represents the contract's high, acting as a ceiling. Overall, the chart reflects a market with a clear and unwavering directional sentiment. Traders have consistently priced in an expectation of a landslide victory for Randy Fine, with confidence increasing in the final days and hours before results are reported.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 65%
📈 August 18, 2026: 43.0pp spike
Price increased from 36.0% to 79.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 43.0 percentage point spike on August 18, 2026, was the cancellation of the Florida's 6th Congressional District Republican primary, as there was no contested election [^]. This official development meant Randy Fine automatically secured the nomination, effectively guaranteeing he would achieve 100% of the vote, making the "At least 65%" outcome virtually certain. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives appeared to be a primary driver or contributing accelerant. Consequently, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Outcome: At least 80%
📉 August 17, 2026: 40.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 24.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 40.0 percentage point drop in the "At least 80%" market on August 17, 2026, was the emergence of information indicating Randy Fine's actual vote percentage would be below 80% [^]. While the FL-06 Republican primary concluded on August 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^], Fine ultimately received 75.3% of the total Republican votes cast [^]. This reported figure directly contradicted the "At least 80%" outcome, leading to the sharp market correction on the preceding day. Social media was irrelevant, as no specific posts or viral narratives were identified as contributing to this price movement.
📈 August 16, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 64.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a specific primary driver for the 37.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Randy Fine's vote percentage on August 16, 2026. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, nor any traditional news announcements or market structure factors aligning with this movement, were found in the available sources. The Florida 6th Congressional District Republican primary was scheduled for August 18, 2026 [^], and final vote percentages were not recorded or reported even as of that election day [^]. Given the absence of specific information regarding social media posts, news events, or market data coinciding with the spike, social media's role in this movement cannot be determined.
📉 August 14, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 56.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point drop in Randy Fine's "At least 80% vote percent" prediction market on August 14, 2026, was likely social media activity from challenger Dan Bilzerian. Bilzerian posted various claims, including a flash poll and calls for another candidate to drop out, in the days leading up to the August 18, 2026, primary [^]. This social media engagement, potentially featuring controversial statements that later led to "GOP leaders admonish[ment]" [^], likely increased uncertainty regarding Randy Fine's exact vote share. The social media activity appeared to coincide with the price move by reducing market confidence in Fine reaching the 80% threshold. Social media was a primary driver.
Outcome: At least 75%
📉 August 15, 2026: 55.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 15.0%
What happened: There is no evidence supporting a 55 percentage point drop in Randy Fine's vote percent in the FL-06 Republican primary prediction market on August 15, 2026 [^]. The Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District is scheduled for today, August 18, 2026, and as polls are currently open or just closing, no official vote percentages or election results have yet been reported [^][^]. Therefore, no such statistical drop or catalyst has occurred [^]. Given that the premise event did not take place, social media activity is irrelevant to the described market movement [^][^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on Randy Fine's final vote percentage in the FL-06 Republican primary. A 'Yes' outcome for a specific percentage threshold means Fine's vote share is equal to or exceeds that threshold, while a 'No' outcome means it falls below it. Settlement for all contracts in this market occurs only after the primary election results are officially certified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | $1.00 | $0.04 | 99% |
| At least 50% | $0.96 | $0.08 | 98% |
| At least 65% | $0.79 | $0.26 | 79% |
| At least 70% | $0.74 | $0.32 | 79% |
| At least 55% | $0.93 | $0.12 | 44% |
| At least 75% | $0.38 | $0.69 | 35% |
| At least 60% | $0.89 | $0.17 | 23% |
| At least 80% | $0.23 | $0.83 | 17% |
| At least 45% | $0.97 | $0.08 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders widely anticipate Randy Fine will secure at least 70% of the vote in the FL-06 Republican primary, with a 79% probability for this outcome, likely influenced by his substantial fundraising advantage of $4.2 million over his opponents. However, confidence in him reaching higher thresholds has decreased, with the probability for at least 75% falling to 35% and at least 80% plummeting to 17%. The market shows strong consensus that Fine will perform well but is skeptical of him achieving a dominant victory above 70%.
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
At least 50%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 40%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality69Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality69Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
At least 45%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
At least 55%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 60%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
At least 65%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 70%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality67Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality67Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
At least 75%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
At least 80%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 18, 2026
6. How might the last-minute FBI referral against Dan Bilzerian and Speaker Johnson's endorsement of Randy Fine influence the final vote margin?
| Randy Fine winning probability | 98% (prediction markets as of August 18, 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FBI referral filed | August 14-15, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Randy Fine campaign receipts | Over $4.2 million (as of July 29, 2026) [^] |
Last-minute actions significantly impacted the Florida 6th Congressional District Republican primary. Incumbent Representative Randy Fine filed an FBI criminal referral against primary opponent Dan Bilzerian between August 14-15, 2026, alleging $1 million in unreported, potentially illegal foreign campaign spending [^][^][^]. Shortly afterward, on August 17, 2026, House Speaker Mike Johnson publicly endorsed Fine while condemning Bilzerian's candidacy, specifically citing Bilzerian's "vile" antisemitic attacks against Fine [^][^]. These crucial developments occurred just before or on the day of the August 18, 2026, Republican primary in Florida's 6th Congressional District [^][^][^].
Randy Fine maintains a commanding lead, per current prediction markets. As of August 18, 2026, prediction markets overwhelmingly favor Randy Fine to win the FL-06 Republican primary, estimating his winning probability at approximately 98% [^][^][^][^][^]. Fine also holds a substantial campaign finance advantage, having reported over $4.2 million in total receipts as of July 29, 2026 [^]. While these recent events were concurrent with Fine's high probabilities, the provided information does not detail how these actions specifically influenced the final vote margin beyond what is already reflected in his currently reported strong likelihood of victory [^][^][^][^][^].
7. What evidence from pre-election polling and fundraising reports supported market expectations of a decisive victory for Randy Fine?
| Prediction Market Probability (Fine Win) | 97% to 99% (pre-primary) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Randy Fine Campaign Funds Raised | $4,286,207 (by July 29, 2026) [^] |
| Randy Fine Outside Support | $3,698,701 [^] |
Prediction markets strongly favored Randy Fine's decisive FL-06 primary victory. By the August 18, 2026, primary date, prediction markets consistently indicated a high probability of Fine winning, with implied probabilities ranging from 97% to 99% [^][^][^][^][^]. This consistent market confidence highlighted the strong expectations for his success in the Republican primary.
Fine's campaign demonstrated dominant fundraising, significantly surpassing his primary challengers. His campaign committee raised over $4.2 million throughout the 2026 election cycle [^][^][^][^]. Specifically, Randy Fine reported raising $4,286,207 by the pre-primary filing date of July 29, 2026, which substantially outperformed his closest primary challenger, Eric Yonce, who raised $325,710 [^]. Furthermore, Fine's campaign benefited from significant outside support, totaling $3,698,701, which further bolstered expectations of his competitive standing [^].
His incumbency and prominent endorsements reinforced strong performance expectations. Fine's status as an incumbent, having won a 2025 special election, coupled with key endorsements, including one from Donald Trump, were significant factors [^][^]. These elements further solidified market expectations for his victory and helped marginalize his primary opposition.
8. How do Randy Fine and primary opponent Dan Bilzerian compare regarding their campaign platforms and key endorsements?
| Randy Fine Key Endorsement | President Donald Trump [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Daniel Bilzerian Key Policy | Abolition of ATF, IRS, and Federal Reserve [^][^][^][^] |
| Primary Election Date | August 18, 2026 [^][^] |
Incumbent Randy Fine holds strong endorsements and a conservative platform. U.S. Representative Randy Fine is seeking re-election in the August 18, 2026, Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District [^][^]. Fine has garnered notable endorsements, most significantly from President Donald Trump [^][^][^][^][^]. His campaign is built on conservative principles, emphasizing specific policy priorities such as lowering insurance rates, holding insurance companies accountable, bolstering border security, protecting the Second Amendment, combating inflation, and advocating for law enforcement [^][^]. Additional endorsements for Fine include organizations like the NRA-PVF, the Republican Jewish Coalition, Veterans for America First, and Associated Industries of Florida [^][^].
Challenger Daniel Bilzerian proposes radical overhauls with limited public details. Also contending in the August 18, 2026, Republican primary is challenger Daniel Bilzerian [^][^]. His campaign, branded with an "America First" agenda and detailed in "Dan's Plan," advocates for significant government restructuring [^][^][^]. Key proposals include the abolition of the ATF, IRS, and Federal Reserve, a 30% increase in Social Security benefits, securing the border, and ending foreign aid [^][^][^][^]. Bilzerian's platform additionally features explicitly anti-Zionist rhetoric [^]. Public information regarding Bilzerian's specific platform details or endorsements remains limited, and he has not completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey [^].
The primary features distinct platforms and levels of campaign transparency. The Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District presents voters with two distinct candidates on August 18, 2026. Randy Fine's campaign is characterized by established conservative positions and a broad base of institutional endorsements, including President Donald Trump [^][^][^][^][^]. In contrast, Daniel Bilzerian offers a platform advocating for radical governmental changes, coupled with explicitly anti-Zionist views [^]. Fine's campaign details and support are extensively documented, while Bilzerian's public profile concerning specific platform details and endorsements is notably less developed [^].
9. What is the official timeline for Florida election authorities to release and certify the FL-06 primary results after polls close on August 18, 2026?
| Preliminary Unofficial Results Start | 8:00 p.m. ET on election night, August 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| County Official Returns Deadline | Noon on August 26, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Official State Results Certification | August 27, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Preliminary election results begin releasing on election night, followed by unofficial county returns. Preliminary unofficial results for Florida's August 18, 2026, primary election are scheduled to begin posting on the Florida Election Watch website at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on election night [^][^][^][^]. Following this, county-level unofficial election returns must be filed by noon on August 21, 2026, which is the third day after the election [^][^][^].
Official county and state certifications proceed within the following weeks. County official returns are subsequently due no later than noon on August 26, 2026, the eighth day after the election [^][^][^]. The Elections Canvassing Commission is tasked with certifying the official state results by August 27, 2026, marking the ninth day post-election [^][^][^]. Florida county election officials are then required to canvass election returns and transmit the results to the Florida Department of State by the twelfth day following the election [^]. Final state-level certification for state, federal, and multi-county offices, conducted by the Governor and two members of the Governor's Cabinet, occurs on the fourteenth day after the election [^].
Recount provisions are triggered based on vote margin thresholds. Additionally, Florida law mandates machine recounts for margins of 0.5% or less, which must be completed by the ninth day, and potential manual recounts for margins of 0.25% or less, due by the twelfth day after the election [^].
10. What are the historical turnout rates and winning margins in past Republican primaries for Florida's 6th Congressional District?
| Randy Fine's Vote Share (Jan 2025 Special Primary) | 83.02% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Jan 2025 Special Primary Turnout | 40,811 voters [^][^] |
| Michael Waltz's Vote Share (2024 Republican Primary) | 82% [^] |
Randy Fine decisively won the 2025 special primary with high support. In the January 28, 2025, Republican special primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District, Randy Fine secured a significant victory, garnering 83.02% of the vote [^][^]. He received 33,901 votes, defeating Aaron Baker, who received 14.04%, and Ehsan Joarder, who received 2.94% [^][^]. This special primary saw a total turnout of 40,811 voters, with 40,837 total votes cast [^][^].
Recent regular primaries showed strong incumbent performance with similar winning margins. For comparison, previous regular Republican primaries in the district, involving Michael Waltz, also demonstrated substantial victories. In the 2024 Republican primary, Michael Waltz won with 82% of the vote against John Grow, receiving 65,234 votes [^][^]. Similarly, in the 2022 Republican primary, Waltz secured 77.4% of the vote (65,694 votes) over Charles E. Davis [^][^]. The 2020 Republican primary was canceled, allowing Michael Waltz to advance automatically [^]. Specific total turnout rates for the 2024 and 2022 Republican primaries were not explicitly available in the provided research.
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District occurred on Tuesday, August 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] . House..." data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Incumbent Representative Randy Fine faced four challengers: Dan Bilzerian, Manuel Asencio, Aaron Baker, and Charles Gambaro [^][^][^][^]. As of the primary date, prediction markets heavily favored Fine, pricing his probability of winning at approximately 97-98% [^][^][^][^][^]. Fine's incumbency, the backing of President Donald Trump, and a significant fundraising advantage over challengers were key drivers of this market sentiment [^]. However, Fine is also a polarizing figure, facing criticism for his rhetoric and residency status [^].
Market participants also focused on Randy Fine's specific vote percentage, with contracts for reaching thresholds such as 55%, 65%, and 80% providing insight into expected margins of victory [^] . As of August 18, 2026, the primary election was in progress, with polls scheduled to close at 7:00 PM EDT, and no vote percentage data for Fine was yet available [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 18, 2027
- Closes: August 18, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District occurred on Tuesday, August 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Incumbent Representative Randy Fine faced four challengers: Dan Bilzerian, Manuel Asencio, Aaron Baker, and Charles Gambaro [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of the primary date, prediction markets heavily favored Fine, pricing his probability of winning at approximately 97-98% [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Fine's incumbency, the backing of President Donald Trump, and a significant fundraising advantage over challengers were key drivers of this market sentiment [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-45: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-40: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-35: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-30: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-25: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
