Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Randy Fine to secure at least 40% of the vote in the FL-06 Republican primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract priced in a high probability of the outcome from the start. The market opened with the YES price at 91.0% on August 14, 2026, and maintained an upward trajectory, closing at 99.0%. This indicates a consistent and strong market sentiment that Randy Fine would win the FL-06 Republican primary. The most significant price movement was a 19.0 percentage point spike from 80.0% to 99.0% on August 19, 2026. This move was directly caused by the confirmation of the election results from the previous day. Fine was reported to have secured the nomination with 56.99% of the vote.
The price action suggests a market with a clear conviction that stabilized as the event resolved. The initial high price of 91.0% acted as a strong support level, reflecting the market's baseline expectation. Following the confirmed results, the price moved to its effective ceiling near 99.0%, where it settled. Total volume reached 9,027 contracts, suggesting substantial market participation and liquidity for this contract. The final price reflects the certainty of the primary election's outcome.
  • Since last update (~21h): Model conviction flipped the edge on "At least 60%", as its probability dropped 72.1pp.
  • Market-led movement compressed the edge on "At least 45%", with its probability rising 99.0pp.
  • Confidence score increased 1.0pp, as the overall model-market edge expanded 1.9pp.
  • Market-led shifts compressed edges for 65%, 70%, and 75% outcomes, all dropping significantly.
  • Randy Fine secured 56.99% of the vote, according to preliminary reports.
  • Fine's campaign maintained a significant cash advantage over his primary challenger.
  • FL-06 Republican incumbents typically secure substantial vote shares in primaries.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 50% 99.0% 99.9% Randy Fine secured the nomination with a reported preliminary vote count of 56.99%.
At least 80% 1.0% 0.1% Randy Fine secured 56.99% of the vote, falling short of this threshold.
At least 70% 1.0% 0.1% Randy Fine secured 56.99% of the vote, falling short of this threshold.
At least 75% 1.0% 0.1% Randy Fine secured 56.99% of the vote, falling short of this threshold.
At least 55% 99.0% 99.9% Randy Fine secured the nomination with a reported preliminary vote count of 56.99%.

Current Context

Randy Fine secured the FL-06 Republican primary nomination with 56.99% of the vote. Incumbent Randy Fine secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 6th Congressional District on August 18, 2026, receiving 56.99% of the vote [1]. This outcome allowed Fine to advance [2]. The primary featured challengers Dan Bilzerian, Aaron Baker, and Charles Gambaro [2]. The campaign was marked by significant spending by Bilzerian and instances of antisemitic rhetoric [2]. One report, however, indicated Fine lost the primary [3].
Fine advances to the November 3, 2026 general election against Eric Yonce. Following his primary victory, Randy Fine will face Democratic challenger Eric Yonce in the general election on November 3, 2026 [4]. Key dates for the general election include the voter registration deadline on October 5, and the early voting period from October 24 to October 31 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Summary Results - Election Night Reportingenr.electionsfl.org
  2. 2Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions spent by Dan Bilzerianfloridapolitics.com
  3. 3Election results, 2026ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Incumbent Randy Fine wins GOP primary in Florida District 6; advances to face Democrat Eric Yonce | FOX 35 Orlandofox35orlando.com
  5. 5Randy Fine wins Republican nomination for US House, AP projects - WESHwesh.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: At least 55%

📈 August 19, 2026: 79.0pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 79.0 percentage point spike was the confirmation of election results following the Florida's 6th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, 2026 [1][2]. By August 19, 2026, Randy Fine had secured the Republican nomination with approximately 57% of the vote, as reported by various news outlets and official election results [3][4][5][6]. This outcome unequivocally met the prediction market's "At least 55%" threshold, causing the market price to surge as results solidified [3][4][7][8][9][10]. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as there is no evidence of specific posts or viral narratives influencing this particular market movement in the available research.

Outcome: At least 65%

📈 August 18, 2026: 39.0pp spike

Price increased from 36.0% to 75.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain evidence of a 39.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market concerning Randy Fine receiving "at least 65%" of the vote in the FL-06 Republican primary on August 18, 2026 [1]. Randy Fine ultimately won the primary with approximately 56.9% to 57% of the vote, meaning the "at least 65%" condition was not met [3][10][6][11]. Without information confirming the described price movement, it is not possible to identify any primary driver, including social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors [1]. Therefore, social media activity cannot be assessed as a driver.

Outcome: At least 80%

📉 August 17, 2026: 40.0pp drop

Price decreased from 64.0% to 24.0%

What happened: No specific social media activity or traditional news reports from August 17, 2026, directly explaining the 40-point price drop are available in the provided research. The market movement appears to have reflected the highly competitive nature of the FL-06 Republican primary, where Randy Fine faced significant opposition. The campaign was noted as bitter, involving significant spending from challenger Dan Bilzerian and accusations of antisemitic attacks against Randy Fine [4][7], making an "At least 80%" vote share for Fine improbable. The price drop likely indicated an accurate market adjustment to these known campaign dynamics, as Randy Fine ultimately won with 56.99% of the vote on August 18, 2026 [6]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant due to the lack of identifiable activity.

📈 August 16, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 27.0% to 64.0%

What happened: The provided research offers no evidence of a 37.0 percentage point spike in Randy Fine's predicted vote share to "At least 80%" on August 16, 2026 [12]. The Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District took place on August 18, 2026, where Randy Fine won with approximately 56.7-57% of the vote [12]. Without evidence that the described price movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity, from the available information. The campaign was notable for negative rhetoric, including antisemitic attacks against Fine [4].

Outcome: At least 75%

📉 August 15, 2026: 55.0pp drop

Price decreased from 70.0% to 15.0%

What happened: Research indicates there is no credible information supporting a 55-percentage-point drop in Randy Fine's predicted vote share for "At least 75%" around August 15, 2026, for the FL-06 Republican primary [3]. Randy Fine ultimately won the August 18, 2026, primary with approximately 56.9% of the vote, well below the 75% threshold [6][11][13]. Without evidence that the specified market movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver for it. Consequently, the role of social media in influencing such an unsubstantiated movement cannot be determined.
Sources (13)
  1. 12026 Florida US House 6 | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2026 (August...ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Florida House District 6 Primary Election Live Results 2026 - NBC Newsnbcnews.com
  4. 4Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions spent by Dan Bilzerianfloridapolitics.com
  5. 52026 Primary Electionenr.electionsfl.org
  6. 6Summary Results - Election Night Reportingenr.electionsfl.org
  7. 7Randy Fine wins Florida's 6th Congressional District Republican primary | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  8. 8Randy Fine wins Republican nomination for US House, AP projects - WESHwesh.com
  9. 9Florida Election Result: Randy Fine-R to challenge Eric Yonce-D for District 6 seat | FOX 35 Orlandofox35orlando.com
  10. 10Florida Sixth Congressional District Primary Election Resultsnytimes.com
  11. 11Florida House Primary Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  12. 12Randy Fine wins GOP primary amid antisemitic campaign rhetoric | The Jerusalem Postjpost.com
  13. 13Randy Fine wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Florida’s 6th Congressional Districtground.news

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to YES if Randy Fine's final vote percentage in the 2026 FL-06 Republican primary meets or exceeds the specific percentage stated in the contract (e.g., "At least 40%"). Conversely, it resolves to NO if his vote percentage falls below that specified threshold. The maximum payout date for this market is August 18, 2027. The provided content does not detail special settlement conditions or the official source for vote percentages.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
At least 40% $1.00 $0.01 99%
At least 45% $1.00 $0.01 99%
At least 50% $1.00 $0.01 99%
At least 55% $1.00 $0.01 99%
At least 60% $0.01 $1.00 1%
At least 65% $0.01 $1.00 1%
At least 70% $0.01 $1.00 1%
At least 75% $0.01 $1.00 1%
At least 80% $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

In the Florida 6th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, 2026, incumbent Randy Fine secured the nomination with 56.99% of the vote [1]. Prediction markets consistently favored Fine leading up to the election, assigning him a 96-98% win probability due to his incumbent status and fundraising advantage [2], despite the primary being marked by acrimonious exchanges and bipartisan condemnation [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Summary Results - Election Night Reportingenr.electionsfl.org
  2. 2FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  3. 3Randy Fine defeats Dan Bilzerian in primary marked by...washingtonexaminer.com

5. How do Randy Fine's campaign fundraising totals and cash on hand compare to his primary challenger Dan Bilzerian's, according to the final FEC reports before the August 18, 2026 primary?

Randy Fine Total Receipts$4,236,071.80 (from November 26, 2024, to June 30, 2026) [1]
Dan Bilzerian Total Contributions$0 [2]
Dan Bilzerian Self-Loan$1 million [3][4][1][5]
Randy Fine's campaign amassed substantial funds, maintaining a significant cash advantage. Ahead of the August 18, 2026, primary, Randy Fine's campaign reported significantly higher fundraising totals compared to his challenger. According to the final FEC reporting period covering November 26, 2024, to June 30, 2026, Fine's campaign recorded total receipts of $4,236,071.80 and total disbursements of $3,087,250.53 [1]. His overall fundraising efforts throughout the 2026 election cycle successfully brought in over $1.73 million, reaching the aforementioned $4.23 million in total receipts [3][4][1][5].
Dan Bilzerian's campaign relied heavily on a self-loan, with no external contributions. In stark contrast, Daniel Bilzerian's 2026 campaign reported $0 in external contributions, indicating a complete absence of significant public fundraising activity according to available FEC data before the primary [2]. Bilzerian primarily funded his campaign through a $1 million self-loan [3][4][1][5]. Despite spending nearly $386,000 by July 29, 2026, he consistently lagged behind Randy Fine in both total funds and cash on hand throughout the entire election cycle [3][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1FINE, RANDY - Candidate overviewfec.gov
  2. 2Daniel Bilzerianballotpedia.org
  3. 3Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions...floridapolitics.com
  4. 4Randy Fine defeats Dan Bilzerian in primary marked by antisemitismwashingtonexaminer.com
  5. 5Randy Fine - Florida | MyRepTrackermyreptracker.com
  6. 6Dan Bilzerian loans campaign $1M, still trails Randy Fine in cashfloridapolitics.com

6. What do historical election results in Florida's 6th District reveal about the typical performance and vote share of Republican incumbents facing primary challenges?

Randy Fine 2026 Primary Vote Share56.6%-57.6% [1]
Michael Waltz 2022 Primary Vote Share77.4% [2][3][4][5]
Michael Waltz 2024 Primary Vote Share82.0% [2][3][4][5]
Republican incumbents in Florida's 6th District perform strongly in primaries. Historically, these incumbents consistently secure substantial vote shares when facing primary challenges. Michael Waltz exemplifies this trend, frequently winning his Republican primaries by significant margins against limited opposition or with decisive victories [2][3][4]. Another incumbent, Randy Fine, also secured the nomination in a special election primary held on January 28, 2025 [6][7].
Incumbents consistently secure high vote shares in primary elections. Michael Waltz's specific results demonstrate this dominance, as he garnered 77.4% of the vote in the 2022 primary and increased his share to 82.0% in the 2024 primary, both against single challengers [2][3][4][5]. More recently, Randy Fine successfully won the nomination in the August 18, 2026 Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District, securing approximately 56.6% to 57.6% of the vote in a multi-candidate field [1][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Florida House District 6 Primary Election Live Results 2026 - NBC Newsnbcnews.com
  2. 2Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 20 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 18 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2024ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Randy Fineballotpedia.org
  7. 7Florida's 6th Congressional District special election, 2025 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2026 (August...ballotpedia.org

7. Which major political figures or organizations have endorsed a candidate in the FL-06 Republican primary, and what is their historical influence on Florida primary outcomes?

Randy Fine's Key EndorsementsPresident Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senator Rick Scott, six sheriffs [1][2]
Charles Gambaro's Key EndorsementsFormer acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, local government/law enforcement figures [2]
Impact of Trump EndorsementDecisive factor in Randy Fine's strong favorability [3][4]
Randy Fine secured endorsements from prominent national and local figures. In the 2026 FL-06 Republican primary, Randy Fine's campaign received significant support from national political figures including President Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Senator Rick Scott. Fine also garnered local backing from six sheriffs within Florida's 6th District [1][2]. As of August 19, 2026, widespread endorsements from major political organizations for candidates in this primary were not extensively documented [5][1].
Charles Gambaro received notable endorsements, but Trump's backing proved decisive. Challenger Charles Gambaro's campaign was endorsed by former acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, alongside various local government and law enforcement officials [2]. Prediction markets indicated that President Donald Trump's endorsement played a decisive role in establishing Randy Fine's strong favorability leading up to the election [3][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 16 sheriffs in Florida's 6th endorse Congressman Randy Finestaugustine.com
  2. 2Charles Gambaro Endorsed by 2 Flagler Public Officials | WNDB - News Daytona Beachnewsdaytonabeach.com
  3. 3Who Wins FL | Lines.comlines.com
  4. 4Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions spent by Dan Bilzerianfloridapolitics.com
  5. 5Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2026 (August...ballotpedia.org

8. Are there reliable, district-level polls for the FL-06 Republican primary, and what do they indicate about the race between Randy Fine and his challengers?

Winner Vote Share56-61% (Randy Fine, August 18, 2026) [1][2]
Prediction Market OddsUp to 98% (for Randy Fine) [3][4][5][6]
Public Opinion PollsNone widely cited at district level [3][4][7][8][9]
District-level polls for the FL-06 primary were notably absent. No prominent, widely cited, independent public opinion polls were conducted at the district level for the FL-06 Republican primary prior to the August 18, 2026, election [3][4][7][8][9]. Instead, the race was primarily tracked through fundraising, campaign activity, and prediction market odds [3][4][7].
Randy Fine secured the nomination against multiple challengers. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Randy Fine won the Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District on August 18, 2026, with approximately 56-61% of the vote [1][2]. Challengers included Dan Bilzerian, Aaron Baker, and Charles Gambaro, who collectively failed to overcome Fine's incumbency and fundraising advantage. Other reported challengers, whose specific inclusion varied by source, included Will Furry, Ernest Audino, and Alexandra van Cleef [1][2][10][9][11].
Prediction markets accurately forecasted Randy Fine's victory. Leading up to the August 18, 2026, primary, prediction markets consistently favored Randy Fine with very high probabilities, reaching up to 98% [3][4][5][6]. This strong market confidence aligned with the final outcome of the election.
Sources (11)
  1. 1Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions spent by Dan Bilzerianfloridapolitics.com
  2. 2Florida House District 6 Primary Election Live Results 2026nbcnews.com
  3. 32026 Florida Republican House Primary: Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  4. 4FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  5. 5August 18, 2026: FL-06 Republican nominee Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Who Wins FL | Lines.comlines.com
  7. 72026 FL-6 Republican Primary | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  8. 82026 Florida US House 6 | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Florida's 6th Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  10. 10Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2026 (August...ballotpedia.org
  11. 11Will Furry (Florida)ballotpedia.org

9. What does local media sentiment and early voting turnout suggest about Randy Fine's base of support ahead of the August 2026 primary?

Campaign Funds Raised$4.2 million (as of July 2026 pre-primary report) [1]
Primary Vote Share57.6% [2]
Prediction Market Probability97-98% (final days before election) [3][4][5][6][7]
Randy Fine successfully secured the Republican nomination in Florida's 6th District. He won the August 2026 primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District, with early voting trends indicating a shift in momentum toward Republicans that helped pave his way to success [8]. His campaign was significantly bolstered by a strong base of support, an endorsement from Donald Trump, and his established reputation as a conservative "MAGA Warrior" [9][8][3][6]. The primary contest was notably bitter, marked by personal and antisemitic attacks from his opponent, social media influencer Dan Bilzerian [9][10][11].
Fine's victory was supported by strong finances and predictions. He maintained a substantial financial advantage throughout his campaign, having raised over $4.2 million by the July 2026 pre-primary report [1]. Fine ultimately won the primary on August 18, 2026, with 57.6% of the vote [2]. Prediction markets consistently favored him throughout the primary cycle, with implied probabilities of victory reaching approximately 97-98% in the final days leading up to the election, signaling strong expectations for his base of support [3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Florida US House 6 Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2Florida's 6th Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  3. 3FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  4. 4August 18, 2026: FL-06 Republican nominee Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5Will Randy Fine Win the FL-06 Republican Primary?lines.com
  6. 62026 Florida Republican House Primary: Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  7. 7Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? — 96% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  8. 8https://flvoicenews.com/florida-republicans-start-picking-up-steam-in-congressional-early-voting-ahead-of-tuesday/flvoicenews.com
  9. 9Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions spent by Dan Bilzerianfloridapolitics.com
  10. 10Randy Fine defeats Dan Bilzerian in Florida primary - Jewish Telegraphic Agencyjta.org
  11. 11Randy Fine wins Florida's 6th Congressional District Republican primary | Fox Newsfoxnews.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Incumbent U.S. Representative Randy Fine secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 6th Congressional District on August 18, 2026, winning the primary with approximately 52.0% to 61% of the vote across various county reports [1][2]. Fine's victory followed a primary campaign marked by significant spending and aggressive personal and antisemitic attacks from challenger Dan Bilzerian. Fine utilized a substantial fundraising edge and a key endorsement from Donald Trump to secure his win [3][2]. Official results for the 2026 Florida 6th Congressional District Republican primary were not available as of August 19, 2026, with election data systems still reflecting preliminary status [4][5].
Fine will now face Democratic challenger Eric Yonce in the general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, in a district currently rated as safely Republican [3][6]. Fine's political career is characterized by a polarizing, bare-knuckle style, including numerous controversies such as ethics violations regarding state funding, public spats, and inflammatory remarks about Muslims and Palestinians [7][8][9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 18, 2027
  • Closes: August 18, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Florida House District 6 Primary Election Live Results 2026nbcnews.com
  2. 2Randy Fine secures GOP nomination, fending off millions spent by Dan Bilzerianfloridapolitics.com
  3. 3Randy Fine wins Florida's 6th Congressional District Republican primary | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  4. 42026 Florida US House 6 | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Florida's 6th Congressional Districtballotpedia.org
  6. 6Incumbent Randy Fine wins GOP primary in Florida District 6; advances to face Democrat Eric Yonce | FOX 35 Orlandofox35orlando.com
  7. 7Randy Fineen.wikipedia.org
  8. 8DC, get ready for Randy Fine: ‘Hardest right hook in the business’politico.com
  9. 9Major Controversies Surrounding Randy Fine: A Detailed Timeline - Popular Timelinespopulartimelines.com
  10. 10Randy Fine, a swamp creature so vile even DeSantis hates him, wins special election in Florida - Salon.comsalon.com

12. Related News

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13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-45: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-40: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-35: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-30: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26MSANMSAN-25: NO (Aug 14, 2026)