Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Francesca Hong is most likely to be the Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~100d): Francesca Hong's model probability surged +49.7pp, while market tracked +47.2pp (edge compressed, model_led).
- Mandela Barnes (model -30.6pp) and Sara Rodriguez (model -23.5pp) saw probabilities collapse (market_led).
- Confidence score rose +4.0pp, as David Crowley's model probability increased +9.1pp.
- Francesca Hong holds a strong lead in recent polling for the nomination. David Crowley attempts a late surge, boosted by Governor Evers' endorsement. * Crowley trails Hong significantly in polling despite his July fundraising advantage.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca Hong | 90.2% | 87.2% | Francesca Hong leads significantly in recent polling and has the most cash on hand among Democratic candidates. |
| David Crowley | 9.6% | 10.2% | David Crowley received Governor Tony Evers' endorsement and outraised Hong in July, despite trailing in recent polling. |
| Mandela Barnes | 0.1% | 0.1% | Mandela Barnes suspended his campaign for the Democratic nomination. |
| Sara Rodriguez | 0.2% | 0.2% | Sara Rodriguez suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination. |
| Kelda Roys | 0.4% | 0.5% | Kelda Roys is an active candidate but shows no significant polling or fundraising support. |
Current Context
Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary will occur on August 11, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, no Democratic nominee has been determined [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Four active candidates remain in the race: state Representative Francesca Hong, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Senator Kelda Roys, and former Department of Administration secretary Joel Brennan [^][^][^][^]. Despite suspending their campaigns, former candidates Mandela Barnes, Sara Rodriguez, and Missy Hughes remain on the printed ballot [^][^][^][^]. Mandela Barnes suspended his campaign on July 30, 2026 [^]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^].
Francesca Hong leads recent polling but faces challenge from David Crowley. Hong has led polling in the Democratic primary [^][^][^]. David Crowley, who initially suspended his campaign before reentering the race, has Governor Tony Evers' endorsement and is attempting a late surge [^][^][^][^]. This surge occurs amidst recent controversy surrounding Hong's past social media posts [^][^][^]. U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany is widely considered the presumptive Republican nominee and is expected to face the Democratic primary winner [^][^][^][^]. The general election race is currently rated as a toss-up [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price has been static, trading in an extremely narrow band between 0.1% and 0.2% probability. The contract opened at 0.1% and is currently priced at 0.1%. This price action establishes firm support at 0.1% and immediate resistance at 0.2%. The trend is perfectly sideways with no significant movements, indicating a stable and long-held market consensus.
Recent political developments have had no discernible impact on the price. The contract's value remained at 0.1% despite news of a candidate's exit and the release of a final Marquette poll showing a clear frontrunner ahead of the August 11 primary. The market's complete lack of response to these events suggests traders believe the outcome represented by this contract is uncorrelated with the competitive dynamics between the leading candidates.
Total volume stands at 2,895 contracts, but recent trading has been sporadic, with sample data showing days with zero volume. This pattern, combined with the static price, points to a lack of new information or speculative interest sufficient to challenge the prevailing sentiment. The market's view is unambiguous: the "YES" outcome is considered a near-zero probability event, and this assessment has remained unchanged by recent campaign news.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 28, 2026: 10.1pp spike
Price increased from 81.0% to 91.1%
Outcome: Francesca Hong
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.1 percentage point spike in Francesca Hong's prediction market price on July 28, 2026, was likely the release of a State Navigate poll on the same day [^]. This poll confirmed Hong's significant lead in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, with some analysts interpreting the results as indicating the primary was effectively "over" [^]. Francesca Hong also participated in the only televised primary debate on July 28, 2026, which may have contributed to market sentiment [^]. Social media activity cannot be assessed as a driver given the lack of information in the provided sources.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a contract on a specific candidate, a "YES" resolution is triggered if that individual becomes the Democratic nominee for Governor of Wisconsin, while a "NO" resolution is triggered if they do not. The market is scheduled to resolve by November 3, 2026, which is also the maximum payout date. No special settlement conditions are explicitly detailed in the provided market information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca Hong | $0.90 | $0.10 | 90% |
| David Crowley | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Josh Kaul | $0.00 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kelda Roys | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Joel Brennan | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Sara Rodriguez | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ben Wikler | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Brett Hulsey | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mandela Barnes | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Missy Hughes | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tony Evers | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The market displays a strong consensus that Francesca Hong is the overwhelming favorite to be the Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee, with her probability currently at 90.2%. David Crowley is a distant second at 9.6%, and Kelda Roys holds a negligible 0.4% chance. While Francesca Hong's odds have slightly dipped and her challengers' odds have marginally increased, the overall market sentiment indicates very high confidence in her nomination.
5. How do Francesca Hong's and David Crowley's campaign strategies and voter coalitions compare ahead of the August 11 primary?
| Crowley July Fundraising | $776,000 (July) [^] |
|---|---|
| Hong Polling Lead | 44% (late July) [^][^][^] |
| Hong Win Probability | Exceeding 90% (final weeks) [^][^][^] |
Francesca Hong and David Crowley employ distinct strategies and target different voter coalitions. Hong, a Democratic state assembly member, has cultivated a strong base among young progressives, voters aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), and Madison-area activists [^][^][^][^]. Her campaign emphasizes policies such as universal child care, paid family leave, and increased taxes on the wealthy. In contrast, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley relies on institutional backing, including an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers and robust ties to unions [^][^][^][^].
Despite Crowley's fundraising advantage, Hong maintains a significant lead in polling and prediction markets. In July, Crowley secured approximately $776,000 in campaign funds, while Hong raised about $339,000 [^][^][^]. However, Hong consistently leads in voter polls, holding a substantial advantage such as 44% to Crowley's 15% in late July [^][^][^]. Crowley's late entry into the August 11, 2026, primary race has complicated his efforts to consolidate moderate and establishment support against Hong's momentum [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets consistently show Hong as a heavy favorite, with her win probabilities remaining above 90% in the final weeks before the primary [^][^][^].
6. What polling data and fundraising metrics from Q2-Q3 2026 support Francesca Hong's position as the primary frontrunner?
| Poll Support (late July 2026) | 44% (State Navigate/Main Street Action) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Cash on Hand (June 30, 2026) | $410,563 [^][^][^] |
| Implied Probability of Winning Nomination (late July 2026) | 90-92% (Prediction markets) [^] |
Francesca Hong consistently leads primary polling, reinforcing her frontrunner status. As of early August 2026, Hong is widely regarded as the leading candidate for the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nomination. A late July 2026 poll conducted by State Navigate/Main Street Action revealed Hong with 44% support, establishing a lead of nearly 30 points over her closest competitors [^][^][^]. This sentiment is further supported by prediction markets, which, in late July 2026, assigned Hong a significant 90-92% implied probability of securing the Democratic nomination, a probability bolstered by her strong polling numbers and the withdrawal of other key establishment candidates [^].
Hong holds a strong financial position, though her lead is not universally conclusive. Financial disclosures up to June 30, 2026, indicate that Hong possessed the highest cash on hand among Democratic candidates, totaling $410,563, and had successfully raised over $1.1 million through a grassroots fundraising strategy [^][^][^]. While Hong benefits from strong support among liberal voters, some reports suggest that comprehensive Q2-Q3 2026 polling or fundraising data does not definitively establish her as the unequivocal primary frontrunner [^]. Similarly, public election data trackers do not conclusively show a single candidate as the clear frontrunner for the August 11, 2026, primary [^]. The landscape of the primary race was notably reshaped by the withdrawal of Mandela Barnes from the Democratic nomination on July 30, 2026 [^][^].
7. What impact might Governor Tony Evers' endorsement of David Crowley have on the race dynamics before the August 11 primary?
| Endorsement Date | July 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 11, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Active Candidates (as of July 30, 2026) | Four [^][^][^][^] |
Governor Evers endorsed David Crowley, significantly boosting his campaign. On July 18, 2026, Governor Tony Evers officially endorsed Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a move intended to consolidate mainstream support in the Democratic primary against Francesca Hong. This intervention occurred as the August 11, 2026, primary had become highly competitive, marked by a "schism" between party establishment figures and progressive voters. Evers' endorsement immediately resulted in a substantial boost to Crowley's fundraising efforts [^][^][^][^][^].
Despite fundraising gains, the primary remains intensely competitive. Crowley had briefly withdrawn from the race in early July 2026 but re-entered following Evers' endorsement, which enabled him to raise significantly more than Hong in the latter half of July [^][^][^]. The candidate field had also narrowed, with Mandela Barnes and Sara Rodriguez among those who had dropped out, leaving David Crowley, Francesca Hong, Joel Brennan, and Kelda Roys as the four active candidates as of July 30, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Nevertheless, the race remains highly competitive, as a large number of absentee ballots were cast prior to Crowley's re-entry, and late-cycle polling indicated a significant lead for Hong [^][^][^].
8. How could votes cast for suspended candidates like Mandela Barnes and Sara Rodriguez, who remain on the ballot, affect the final margins for the active contenders?
| Mandela Barnes Suspension Date | July 30, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sara Rodriguez Suspension Date | July 17, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Francesca Hong Nomination Probability | 70% to 85% (as of early August 2026) [^][^][^] |
Suspended candidates' votes will still be counted, impacting margins. Votes cast for suspended candidates Mandela Barnes and Sara Rodriguez will be counted in the August 11, 2026, primary election for the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nomination [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Barnes suspended his campaign on July 30, 2026, and Rodriguez on July 17, 2026; however, their names legally remain on the ballot despite their withdrawals [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This situation could influence the final margins for active contenders by splitting potential support, either from voters unaware of the withdrawals or those casting protest votes [^][^].
The remaining active contenders face a complicated primary election. The continued presence of withdrawn candidates on the ballot complicates the race for remaining active contenders, including Joel Brennan, David Crowley, Francesca Hong, and Kelda Roys [^][^]. Prediction markets currently heavily favor Francesca Hong as the likely Democratic nominee, with probabilities ranging from approximately 70% to 85% as of early August 2026 [^][^][^]. In response to these late withdrawals, the Wisconsin Democratic Party formally requested that the Wisconsin Elections Commission permit voters who had already submitted mail-in ballots to recast their votes [^].
9. What evidence supports the narrative of a late surge for David Crowley's campaign following his re-entry and Governor Evers' endorsement?
| Crowley Re-entry Date | July 18, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| First Week Fundraising Post Re-entry | Over $550,000 [^] |
| Voters Not Swayed by Evers' Endorsement | 56% [^] |
David Crowley's campaign experienced a late surge after re-entering the gubernatorial race. This began on July 18, 2026, following Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez's withdrawal from the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary [^][^][^]. Governor Tony Evers promptly endorsed Crowley, seeking to unify moderate and establishment Democrats by emphasizing Crowley's executive experience and electability [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Evidence of this momentum included substantial fundraising and party action. Crowley's campaign raised over $550,000 in the first week after his re-entry, using Evers' endorsement to project strength and consolidate the moderate voter base [^][^][^][^]. The significant changes in the candidate field shortly before the August 11, 2026, primary led the state Democratic Party to request that the Wisconsin Election Commission allow voters to recast mail-in ballots [^][^][^]. Despite these signs, polling data has shown mixed results, with some surveys indicating that 56% of voters were not influenced by Governor Evers' endorsement [^][^][^][^][^]. Crowley still faces competition from progressive candidates, including Francesca Hong and Mandela Barnes [^][^][^][^]. Earlier, before his withdrawal and re-entry, Crowley was polling at the bottom of the field during a volatile period with multiple high-profile candidate withdrawals [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, scheduled for August 11, 2026, represents an immediate catalyst [^] [^] [^] . As of August 6, 2026, four active candidates remain: state Rep. Francesca Hong, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Sen. Kelda Roys, and former Evers Cabinet secretary Joel Brennan [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The deadline to request an absentee ballot for regular and overseas voters is 5:00 p.m. today, August 6, 2026 [^][^]. This field saw significant late-stage consolidation; candidates Mandela Barnes, Sara Rodriguez, and Missy Hughes withdrew after the ballot was finalized, meaning their names still appear [^][^][^][^]. David Crowley also suspended his campaign but subsequently un-suspended [^].
Recent polling shows Francesca Hong leading the Democratic field with 38% support in a Marquette poll [^] [^] . On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany has largely coalesced support [^][^]. The winner of the Democratic primary will face Tiffany in the general election, which major election forecasters currently rate as a 'Toss-up' [^]. The primary outcome will clarify the Democratic contender in this crucial general election.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, scheduled for August 11, 2026, represents an immediate catalyst [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of August 6, 2026, four active candidates remain: state Rep.
- Trigger: Francesca Hong, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Sen.
- Trigger: Kelda Roys, and former Evers Cabinet secretary Joel Brennan [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
