IN-09 House winner? (2028) Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 11.0% 19.0%
Republican party
Market Model 39.0% 81.0%
House Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (28)
TN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Victoria Broderick
Market Model 95.9% 97.8%
Scott DesJarlais
Market Model 5.1% 2.2%
Republicans sweep
Market Model 8.2% 5.6%
R-House, D-Senate
Market Model 0.8% 0.7%
10
Market Model 4.2% 3.3%
9
Market Model 40.0% 38.6%
2
Market Model 34.0% 36.8%
1
Market Model 66.0% 61.7%
Republicans win
Market Model 5.4% 4.2%
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Market Model 2.0% 1.4%
Above 249
Market Model 25.0% 14.7%
Below 210
Market Model 3.3% 2.9%
Below 193
Market Model 51.0% 53.6%
218-222
Market Model 5.0% 4.2%
LA-06
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
LA-05
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
CA-04 House winner? Kalshi
Mike Thompson
Market Model 66.0% 70.8%
Eric Jones
Market Model 32.0% 29.2%
MO-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 13.0% 15.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 84.0% 84.6%
MO-02 House winner? Kalshi
Ann Wagner
Market Model 79.0% 83.0%
Fred Wellman
Market Model 21.0% 17.0%
IA-01 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 70.0% 65.3%
Republican party
Market Model 34.0% 34.7%
Alaska House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 15.0% 12.7%
Republican party
Market Model 82.0% 87.3%
NY-03 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 81.0% 82.3%
Republican party
Market Model 24.0% 17.7%
CA-41 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 89.0% 96.6%
Republican party
Market Model 5.0% 3.4%
FL-13 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 73.0% 84.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 24.0% 15.8%
IN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi
Bobby Pulido
Market Model 43.0% 47.9%
Monica De La Cruz
Market Model 56.0% 52.1%
MI-10 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 77.0% 79.4%
Republican party
Market Model 20.0% 20.6%
CO-08 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 67.0% 61.3%
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 38.7%
WI-03 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 76.0% 60.4%
Republican party
Market Model 29.0% 39.6%
FL-23 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 79.0% 78.0%
Republican party
Market Model 19.0% 22.0%
LA-06 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
IN-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
FL-09 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
TX-32 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 81.0% 64.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 19.0% 35.2%
TN-08 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN-09 House winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 11.0% | 19.0% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| TN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Victoria Broderick | 95.9% | 97.8% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: Republicans sweep | 8.2% | 5.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? Top outcome: 10 | 4.2% | 3.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama? Top outcome: 2 | 34.0% | 36.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Top outcome: Republicans win | 5.4% | 4.2% | High | 86 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 249 | 25.0% | 14.7% | High | 89 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Below 193 | 51.0% | 53.6% | Med | 89 | Refresh |
| Louisiana: Which House races will be won outright? Top outcome: LA-06 | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| CA-04 House winner? Top outcome: Mike Thompson | 66.0% | 70.8% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| MO-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 13.0% | 15.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| MO-02 House winner? Top outcome: Ann Wagner | 79.0% | 83.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| IA-01 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 70.0% | 65.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| Alaska House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 15.0% | 12.7% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| NY-03 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 81.0% | 82.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| CA-41 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 89.0% | 96.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| FL-13 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 73.0% | 84.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| IN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 92.7% | 96.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| TX-15 House winner? Top outcome: Bobby Pulido | 43.0% | 47.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| MI-10 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 77.0% | 79.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| CO-08 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 67.0% | 61.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| WI-03 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 76.0% | 60.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| FL-23 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 79.0% | 78.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| LA-06 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 32.0% | 40.4% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| IN-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 84.0% | 87.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| FL-09 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 42.0% | 34.0% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| TX-32 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 81.0% | 64.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| TN-08 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | High | — | Refresh |
