CA-04 House winner? Kalshi
Mike Thompson
Market Model 66.0% 70.8%
Eric Jones
Market Model 32.0% 29.2%
House Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (24)
R-House, R-Senate
Market Model 17.0% 20.4%
D-House, D-Senate
Market Model 48.0% 42.0%
MO-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 13.0% 15.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 84.0% 84.6%
MO-02 House winner? Kalshi
Ann Wagner
Market Model 79.0% 83.0%
Fred Wellman
Market Model 21.0% 17.0%
Above 249
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
Below 210
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Below 193
Market Model 18.0% 14.0%
223-227
Market Model 4.9% 3.3%
IA-01 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 70.0% 65.3%
Republican party
Market Model 34.0% 34.7%
Alaska House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 15.0% 12.7%
Republican party
Market Model 82.0% 87.3%
NY-03 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 81.0% 82.3%
Republican party
Market Model 24.0% 17.7%
CA-41 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 89.0% 96.6%
Republican party
Market Model 5.0% 3.4%
FL-13 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 73.0% 84.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 24.0% 15.8%
IN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi
Bobby Pulido
Market Model 43.0% 47.9%
Monica De La Cruz
Market Model 56.0% 52.1%
MI-10 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 77.0% 79.4%
Republican party
Market Model 20.0% 20.6%
CO-08 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 67.0% 61.3%
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 38.7%
WI-03 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 76.0% 60.4%
Republican party
Market Model 29.0% 39.6%
FL-23 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 79.0% 78.0%
Republican party
Market Model 19.0% 22.0%
0
Market Model 12.0% 84.0%
Above 2
Market Model 3.0% 9.9%
LA-06 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
IN-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
FL-09 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
TX-32 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 81.0% 64.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 19.0% 35.2%
10
Market Model 51.0% 38.2%
7
Market Model 17.0% 17.1%
TN-08 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-04 House winner? Top outcome: Mike Thompson | 66.0% | 70.8% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: R-House, R-Senate | 17.0% | 20.4% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| MO-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 13.0% | 15.4% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| MO-02 House winner? Top outcome: Ann Wagner | 79.0% | 83.0% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 249 | 9.2% | 6.9% | High | 85 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Below 193 | 18.0% | 14.0% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| IA-01 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 70.0% | 65.3% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Alaska House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 15.0% | 12.7% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| NY-03 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 81.0% | 82.3% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| CA-41 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 89.0% | 96.6% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| FL-13 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 73.0% | 84.2% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| IN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 92.7% | 96.5% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| TX-15 House winner? Top outcome: Bobby Pulido | 43.0% | 47.9% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| MI-10 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 77.0% | 79.4% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| CO-08 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 67.0% | 61.3% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| WI-03 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 76.0% | 60.4% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| FL-23 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 79.0% | 78.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 84.0% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| LA-06 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 32.0% | 40.4% | High | 63 | Refresh |
| IN-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 84.0% | 87.8% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| FL-09 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 42.0% | 34.0% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| TX-32 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 81.0% | 64.8% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? Top outcome: 10 | 51.0% | 38.2% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| TN-08 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | High | 72 | Refresh |
