Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: Ann Wagner at 67.9% model vs 78.0% market, suggesting her probability of winning may be slightly overstated by the market.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Fred Wellman's market probability is highest, despite significant incumbent fundraising disadvantage.
  • Ann Wagner consistently won MO-02; non-partisan ratings identify it "Solid Republican."
  • Wagner secured her primary win, with $4.2 million cash on hand.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Ann Wagner 78.0% 67.9% Incumbent Ann Wagner holds a significant fundraising lead and consistent historical victories.
Fred Wellman 85.0% 32.1% Fred Wellman secured the Democratic nomination on August 4, 2026.

Current Context

MO-02 general election results remain undetermined as of late August. The general election for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of August 22, 2026, no winner has been determined for the seat [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Major party nominees were decided in the August 4, 2026, primary elections [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Republican incumbent Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Democratic challenger Fred Wellman won his party's nomination [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Libertarian candidate Brandon Coulter Daugherty will also appear on the ballot [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets favor incumbent Ann Wagner to win the general election. As of late August 2026, prediction markets consistently indicate Republican incumbent Ann Wagner as the favored candidate for the general election [^][^][^][^]. Implied probabilities for her victory range from approximately 75% to 83% [^][^][^][^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
The price for the "MO-02 House winner?" contract has traded in a wide range, from a high of 83.0% to a low of 12.0%, but has shown an overall sideways trend. The market opened with the contract at 81.0% and currently prices it at 78.0%. The 81-83% level has acted as a resistance band for much of the observed period. The market's most significant activity occurred on August 21 and August 22. On August 21, the price collapsed 71 percentage points, from 83.0% to 12.0%. This drop was reportedly driven by unsubstantiated rumors of the candidate's withdrawal from the race.
The market immediately reversed the next day. On August 22, the price spiked 66 percentage points, from 12.0% back to 78.0%. This recovery appears to be a delayed reaction to Ann Wagner securing the Republican primary nomination on August 4. The extreme volatility suggests a thinly traded market susceptible to rumors, which can temporarily overwhelm fundamental factors like primary results.
Total volume stands at 954 contracts. The sharp price swings occurred on relatively low aggregate volume, indicating that a small number of trades likely drove the dramatic price action. Despite the brief collapse, the contract has spent most of its time trading above 80%, suggesting a persistent market sentiment that assigns a high probability to a victory for the Republican candidate. The quick reversion from the 12.0% low reinforces this conviction.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 22, 2026: 66.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 78.0%

Outcome: Ann Wagner

What happened: The primary driver of the 66.0 percentage point price spike for Ann Wagner on August 22, 2026, appears to be a delayed market adjustment following her decisive Republican primary win on August 4, 2026 [^][^]. Ann Wagner secured the nomination for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District with approximately 73.9% of the vote, solidifying her position as the candidate for the November 3, 2026 general election [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Lacking any identified social media activity or new traditional news on or immediately preceding August 22, this significant movement likely reflects the market fully pricing in the implications of her nomination after an 18-day lag. Social media was not a primary driver of this price movement.

📉 August 21, 2026: 71.0pp drop

Price decreased from 83.0% to 12.0%

Outcome: Ann Wagner

What happened: The 71.0 percentage point drop in Ann Wagner's prediction market price on August 21, 2026, appears to have been driven by an unsubstantiated belief or rumor that she had withdrawn from the election [^][^]. This occurred despite Wagner winning her Republican primary for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District on August 4, 2026, with no evidence supporting any claim of her dropping out of the general election [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While such misinformation frequently disseminates via social media, the provided web research does not contain specific social media posts, accounts, or viral narratives to directly link it as the primary driver. Therefore, based solely on the available information, social media's role in this particular price movement cannot be definitively determined.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves positively (YES) if Fred Wellman, representing the Democratic party, wins the MO-02 House race. It resolves negatively (NO) if Fred Wellman does not win. The resolution is determined by the winning party of the MO-02 House race, with trading beginning on November 3rd, 8:00 AM EST, and a maximum payout date of November 3rd, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Fred Wellman $0.26 $0.79 85%
Ann Wagner $0.79 $0.27 78%

Market Discussion

The general election for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner won the Republican primary on August 4, 2026, while Frederick Wellman won the Democratic primary on the same date [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently favor Ann Wagner to win the general election, with her win probability consistently around 83% [^][^][^][^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Ann WagnerPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Fred WellmanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 22, 2026

6. How do Ann Wagner's and Fred Wellman's fundraising totals compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Ann Wagner Cash on Hand$4.2 million (mid-July 2026) [^]
Fred Wellman Cash on Hand$242,217 (mid-July 2026) [^]
Ann Wagner Campaign Contributions (2026)$2,258,443 (2026 election cycle) [^]
Ann Wagner significantly outpaces Fred Wellman in fundraising for the 2026 election. As of mid-July 2026, incumbent Ann Wagner's fundraising totals for the 2026 election cycle considerably exceed those of her challenger, Fred Wellman. Wagner reported $4.2 million in cash on hand [^]. In contrast, Wellman, the Democratic nominee for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, held $242,217 in cash on hand, having raised $1.2 million [^].
Wagner has formally reported substantial campaign contributions this cycle. For the 2026 election cycle, Ann Wagner has reported $2,258,443 in campaign contributions [^]. Frederick Wellman has not yet reported campaign contributions for the 2026 cycle, according to available FEC-linked data [^].

7. What do non-partisan election ratings from sources like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball indicate for the MO-02 race in 2026?

Cook Political Report RatingSolid Republican (R+6 PVI) [^][^]
Sabato's Crystal Ball RatingSafe Republican [^][^]
Incumbent Ann Wagner Probability83% (Kalshi) [^][^][^]
Non-partisan ratings consistently favor Republicans in the MO-02 2026 race. Major non-partisan election analysis outlets indicate a strong Republican advantage for the Missouri 2nd District (MO-02) contest in 2026. The Cook Political Report assesses the MO-02 race as Solid Republican, noting a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+6 [^][^]. Similarly, Sabato's Crystal Ball designates the district as Safe Republican [^][^], and Decision Desk HQ rates it as 'Likely Republican' [^][^].
Prediction markets reinforce the Republican advantage for the MO-02 election. These platforms project a high likelihood of a Republican victory in the Missouri 2nd District. As of August 22, 2026, Kalshi data shows incumbent Ann Wagner (Republican) with an implied probability of approximately 83% to win the MO-02 election. This figure contrasts with an approximate 21% implied probability for the Democratic challenger Fred Wellman [^][^][^].

8. What national political trends or specific policy debates could act as a catalyst to shift voter sentiment in MO-02 before November 2026?

Incumbent Favorability (Prediction Markets)Ann Wagner overwhelmingly favored to win MO-02 [^][^][^][^]
Presidential Approval Rating (Aug 2026)44% [^]
Congressional Approval Rating (Aug 2026)14% [^]
National political trends will significantly influence MO-02 voter sentiment. These trends are expected to act as catalysts for shifts in voter sentiment before November 2026, encompassing a highly polarized electorate, the significant role of President Trump as a focal point for both mobilization and opposition, and national debates over economic policies [^][^]. Furthermore, a strong Democratic voter appetite for generational turnover and institutional change could impact incumbent performance if successfully leveraged against general election opponents [^].
MO-02 remains largely competitive, but specific shifts could alter dynamics. While prediction markets overwhelmingly favor incumbent Republican Ann Wagner, the district would only become genuinely competitive with a significant shift in suburban voter sentiment or a broad national Democratic wave [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Currently, neither party holds a decisive advantage on the economy [^]. The political landscape and baseline competitiveness for the 2026 elections may also be altered due to Missouri congressional district boundaries being redrawn in September 2025 [^][^].
National political indicators provide crucial context for voter sentiment. As of August 2026, foundational context for voter sentiment includes a 44% presidential approval rating, a 55% presidential disapproval rating, and a 14% congressional approval rating [^].

9. Is there regular, publicly available district-level polling for the MO-02 race from reputable pollsters for the 2026 cycle?

Ann Wagner Poll Result44% (FM3 Research, May 2026) [^]
Fred Wellman Poll Result41% (FM3 Research, May 2026) [^]
Ann Wagner Prediction Market Probability83% (as of August 22, 2026) [^][^][^]
Public polling for the 2026 MO-02 race remains scarce as of August 22, 2026. There is no evidence of regular, publicly available district-level polling from reputable sources for the 2026 MO-02 U.S. House race [^][^][^][^][^]. Only one district-level poll has been recorded for this election cycle. This single poll, conducted by FM3 Research (D) in May 2026, reported Republican incumbent Ann Wagner at 44% support and Democratic challenger Fred Wellman at 41% [^].
Election dates are set, and prediction markets favor the incumbent. The primary elections for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District were held on August 4, 2026, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^][^]. As of August 22, 2026, prediction markets consistently indicate incumbent Ann Wagner (R) is favored to win the MO-02 House race, with implied probabilities around 83% compared to 21% for Democratic challenger Fred Wellman [^][^][^]. However, no major prediction market data or reputable election analysis forecast explicitly lists a projected winner for the 2026 MO-02 House race as of this date [^][^][^][^][^].

10. How has Ann Wagner's margin of victory in Missouri's 2nd District changed in previous election cycles, particularly in midterm years?

2018 Margin of Victory4 percentage points [^][^][^][^]
2022 Margin of Victory11.8 percentage points [^][^]
2024 Margin of Victory12 percentage points [^][^]
Ann Wagner consistently secured comfortable majorities in her district. Ann Wagner, the incumbent Republican, has consistently won Missouri's 2nd Congressional District since her first election in 2012, with her margins of victory in general elections historically being comfortable [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Victory margins varied across different election cycles, particularly midterms. Her margin of victory has shown fluctuations across previous election cycles. In midterm years, she won by 4 percentage points in 2018 [^][^][^][^]. More recently, her wins include an approximately 11.8 percentage point margin in 2022 (54.9% to 43.1%) and about a 12 percentage point margin in 2024 (56.2% to 43.8%) [^][^]. Additionally, she secured a 21 percentage point margin in 2016 and a 6.4 percentage point margin in 2020 (51.9% to 45.5%) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The general election for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . Incumbent Ann Wagner won the Republican primary, and Fred Wellman won the Democratic primary, both held on August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of August 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts incumbent Ann Wagner with an 88% probability of victory, compared to 12% for Fred Wellman [^].
Broader market catalysts for US House control include generic congressional ballot polls, presidential approval ratings, economic prints such as inflation and GDP, redistricting and court decisions, candidate fundraising, and late turnout signals [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Prediction market volatility will likely increase around FEC fundraising deadlines, during the September-October debate seasons, and leading up to the November 3, 2026 election date [^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The general election for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Incumbent Ann Wagner won the Republican primary, and Fred Wellman won the Democratic primary, both held on August 4, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: As of August 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts incumbent Ann Wagner with an 88% probability of victory, compared to 12% for Fred Wellman [^] .
  • Trigger: Broader market catalysts for US House control include generic congressional ballot polls, presidential approval ratings, economic prints such as inflation and GDP, redistricting and court decisions, candidate fundraising, and late turnout signals [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 17 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHOUSERACE-WA09-26-KSAW: NO (Aug 05, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-CA37-26-R: NO (Jun 30, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-CA37-26-D: YES (Jun 30, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-CA34-26-R: NO (Jun 30, 2026)
  • KXHOUSERACE-CA34-26-D: YES (Jun 30, 2026)