Science and Technology Markets

Active Markets (34)

When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?

Before Jul 1, 2026

Market Model 36.0% 16.9%

Before Jun 27, 2026

Market Model 20.0% 8.8%

$378,514.46 Refresh

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before 2027

Market Model 12.4% 6.2%

Before July 2026

Market Model 1.0% 0.5%

$26,822,141.92 Refresh

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

Market Model 47.0% 37.8%

xAI

Market Model 16.0% 5.1%

$257,936.56 Refresh

NASA lands on the moon?

Before 2027

Market Model 1.6% 0.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 5.3% 1.8%

$470,155.73 Refresh

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 160

Market Model 36.0% 31.2%

Above 180

Market Model 23.0% 17.7%

$349,798.81 Refresh

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 20.8%

$306,699.53 Refresh

Measles cases in 2026?

Above 4000

Market Model 35.0% 46.3%

Above 6000

Market Model 17.0% 25.9%

$712,959.65 Refresh

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2027

Market Model 8.2% 8.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 29.5% 28.8%

$551,899.08 Refresh

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jul 1, 2026

Market Model 3.0% 1.7%

Before Aug 1, 2026

Market Model 7.0% 4.0%

$1,111,054.43 Refresh

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States

Market Model 54.0% 41.8%

China

Market Model 32.4% 24.0%

$131,856.81 Refresh

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

At least 90%

Market Model 7.0% 8.6%

At least 85%

Market Model 6.0% 8.6%

$2,271.01 Refresh

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

Before July

Market Model 15.0% 1.0%

Before September

Market Model 50.0% 19.8%

$15,676.54 Refresh

US test scores in Reading in 2026?

Significant decrease

Market Model 67.0% 64.2%

No significant difference

Market Model 30.0% 25.5%

$31,142.34 Refresh

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?

Yes

Market Model 71.0% 62.1%

$59,340.7 Refresh

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?

Yes

Market Model 58.0% 50.1%

$6,700.74 Refresh

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

At least 450

Market Model 22.0% 21.9%

At least 440

Market Model 93.0% 91.9%

$6,508.61 Refresh

Will there be a year without polio before 2030?

Yes

Market Model 4.3% 4.3%

$28,330.64 Refresh

Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?

Yes

Market Model 32.0% 35.6%

$7,938.27 Refresh

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

Yes

Market Model 16.1% 18.4%

$17,965 Refresh

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Before 2030

Market Model 34.0% 16.9%

Before 2040

Market Model 56.0% 32.1%

$37,793.26 Refresh

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

Yes

Market Model 28.0% 36.7%

$8,851 Refresh

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

Yes

Market Model 41.0% 20.4%

$41,727 Refresh

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Yes

Market Model 23.0% 20.5%

$348,996 Refresh

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027?

Yes

Market Model 24.0% 24.5%

$89,594 Refresh

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Earbuds/Headphones

Market Model 68.0% 65.5%

Clip-on device for clothing

Market Model 30.0% 32.0%

$56,957 Refresh

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

At least 1000

Market Model 98.0% 25.0%

At least 5000

Market Model 44.0% 5.0%

$110,847 Refresh

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

Yes

Market Model 30.0% 31.0%

$52,761 Refresh

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

Market Model 49.0% 37.2%

Google

Market Model 11.0% 25.0%

$216,897 Refresh

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Valar Atomics

Market Model 69.0% 3.0%

Atomic Alchemy

Market Model 59.0% 3.0%

$85,077 Refresh

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Yes

Market Model 66.0% 46.5%

$84,553 Refresh

AI capability growth before July?

At least 1550 score

Market Model 40.0% 56.0%

At least 1575 score

Market Model 25.0% 31.5%

$70,699 Refresh

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

Yes

Market Model 55.0% 55.0%

$73,763 Refresh

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2028

Market Model 15.0% 2.0%

Before 2027

Market Model 8.0% 0.1%

$46,462 Refresh

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Market Model 62.1% 32.5%

Gemini

Market Model 22.1% 37.9%

$1,135,017 Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	Volume
When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026	36.0%	16.9%	High	$378,514.46	Refresh
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Top outcome: Before 2027	12.4%	6.2%	Med	$26,822,141.92	Refresh
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI	47.0%	37.8%	Med	$257,936.56	Refresh
NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027	1.6%	0.6%	High	$470,155.73	Refresh
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160	36.0%	31.2%	High	$349,798.81	Refresh
Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	16.0%	20.8%	Med	$306,699.53	Refresh
Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 4000	35.0%	46.3%	High	$712,959.65	Refresh
When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2027	8.2%	8.6%	High	$551,899.08	Refresh
When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026	3.0%	1.7%	High	$1,111,054.43	Refresh
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States	54.0%	41.8%	Med	$131,856.81	Refresh
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90%	7.0%	8.6%	High	$2,271.01	Refresh
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1? Top outcome: Before July	15.0%	1.0%	High	$15,676.54	Refresh
US test scores in Reading in 2026? Top outcome: Significant decrease	67.0%	64.2%	High	$31,142.34	Refresh
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? Yes refers to: Before 2030	71.0%	62.1%	Med	$59,340.7	Refresh
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	58.0%	50.1%	Med	$6,700.74	Refresh
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? Top outcome: At least 450	22.0%	21.9%	High	$6,508.61	Refresh
Will there be a year without polio before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	4.3%	4.3%	Med	$28,330.64	Refresh
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033? Yes refers to: Before 2033	32.0%	35.6%	Med	$7,938.27	Refresh
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? Yes refers to: Before 2050	16.1%	18.4%	Med	$17,965	Refresh
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? Top outcome: Before 2030	34.0%	16.9%	High	$37,793.26	Refresh
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? Yes refers to: Before 2050	28.0%	36.7%	Med	$8,851	Refresh
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? Yes refers to: Before 2035	41.0%	20.4%	Med	$41,727	Refresh
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license	23.0%	20.5%	Med	$348,996	Refresh
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use	24.0%	24.5%	Med	$89,594	Refresh
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones	68.0%	65.5%	Med	$56,957	Refresh
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000	98.0%	25.0%	Med	$110,847	Refresh
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	30.0%	31.0%	Med	$52,761	Refresh
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic	49.0%	37.2%	Med	$216,897	Refresh
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics	69.0%	3.0%	Med	$85,077	Refresh
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	66.0%	46.5%	Med	$84,553	Refresh
AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score	40.0%	56.0%	Med	$70,699	Refresh
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	55.0%	55.0%	Med	$73,763	Refresh
When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028	15.0%	2.0%	Med	$46,462	Refresh
Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude	62.1%	32.5%	Med	$1,135,017	Refresh

Expired Markets (15)

Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$282

Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by May 31, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$1,044.13

NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$410

NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$27

NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$216

NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$193

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$160

NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$351

Best AI this week?

Yes

Market Model — —

$334,912

Best AI in Feb 2026?

Yes

Market Model — —

$1,626,854

What will be the top AI model this month?

Yes

Market Model — —

$2,193,012

When will xAI release Grok 4.2?

Yes

Market Model — —

$18,528

Best AI this week?

Yes

Market Model — —

$443,679

What will be the top AI model this week?

Yes

Market Model — —

$264,092

Event	Market	Model	Conf	Volume
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026?	—	—	High	$282
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by May 31, 2026?	—	—	High	$1,044.13
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	$2
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	$410
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	$27
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	$216
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	$193
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	$160
NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	$351
Best AI this week?	—	—	Med	$334,912
Best AI in Feb 2026?	—	—	Med	$1,626,854
What will be the top AI model this month?	—	—	High	$2,193,012
When will xAI release Grok 4.2?	—	—	Med	$18,528
Best AI this week?	—	—	Med	$443,679
What will be the top AI model this week?	—	—	Med	$264,092

Science and Technology Markets

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