Science and Technology Markets

Active Markets (40)

Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 1.0% 0.8%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 40.0% 38.4%

7.0K contracts Refresh

SpaceX Starship 14th launch? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 82.0% 79.1%

Before Oct 16, 2026

Market Model 95.0% 92.4%

216.2K contracts Refresh

When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved? Kalshi

Before 2028

Market Model 20.0% 11.7%

Before 2030

Market Model 44.0% 27.7%

127.4K contracts Refresh

OpenRouter AI token usage in September Kalshi

Above 300T tokens

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

Above 700T tokens

Market Model 42.0% 23.3%

14.7K contracts Refresh

Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE) Kalshi

Gemini

Market Model 29.0% 29.2%

ChatGPT

Market Model 56.0% 40.8%

27.4K contracts Refresh

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 91.0% 93.8%

$268.7K Refresh

How many SpaceX launches in 2026? Polymarket

200 or more

Market Model 5.0% 6.4%

160-179

Market Model 26.0% 32.0%

$324.6K Refresh

Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? Kalshi

Above 20k

Market Model 44.0% 54.5%

Above 14k

Market Model 86.0% 89.9%

18.9K contracts Refresh

Nobel Prize in Economics 2026 Kalshi

Luigi Zingales

Market Model 8.0% 3.1%

Ariel Pakes

Market Model 16.0% 7.5%

1.0K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 12.4% 6.2%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

26.8M contracts Refresh

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Kalshi

OpenAI

Market Model 47.0% 37.8%

xAI

Market Model 16.0% 5.1%

257.9K contracts Refresh

NASA lands on the moon? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 1.6% 0.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 5.3% 1.8%

470.2K contracts Refresh

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Kalshi

Above 160

Market Model 36.0% 31.2%

Above 180

Market Model 23.0% 17.7%

349.8K contracts Refresh

Tesla Optimus released this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 20.8%

306.7K contracts Refresh

Measles cases in 2026? Kalshi

Above 4000

Market Model 35.0% 46.3%

Above 6000

Market Model 17.0% 25.9%

713.0K contracts Refresh

When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 7.0% 8.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 22.9% 28.8%

551.9K contracts Refresh

When will Anthropic release Mythos? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 28.0% 16.6%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 18.0% 11.1%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Kalshi

United States

Market Model 54.0% 41.8%

China

Market Model 32.4% 24.0%

131.9K contracts Refresh

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Kalshi

At least 90%

Market Model 7.0% 8.6%

At least 85%

Market Model 6.0% 8.6%

2.3K contracts Refresh

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 70.0% 66.2%

Before November

Market Model 64.0% 33.3%

15.7K contracts Refresh

US test scores in Reading in 2026? Kalshi

Significant decrease

Market Model 67.0% 64.2%

No significant difference

Market Model 30.0% 25.5%

31.1K contracts Refresh

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 71.0% 62.1%

59.3K contracts Refresh

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 58.0% 50.1%

6.7K contracts Refresh

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? Kalshi

At least 450

Market Model 22.0% 21.9%

At least 440

Market Model 93.0% 91.9%

6.5K contracts Refresh

Will there be a year without polio before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 4.3% 4.3%

28.3K contracts Refresh

Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 32.0% 35.6%

7.9K contracts Refresh

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.1% 18.4%

18.0K contracts Refresh

When will nuclear fusion be achieved? Kalshi

Before 2030

Market Model 34.0% 16.9%

Before 2040

Market Model 56.0% 32.1%

37.8K contracts Refresh

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 28.0% 36.7%

8.9K contracts Refresh

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 41.0% 20.4%

41.7K contracts Refresh

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 23.0% 20.5%

349.0K contracts Refresh

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 24.0% 24.5%

89.6K contracts Refresh

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Kalshi

Earbuds/Headphones

Market Model 68.0% 65.5%

Clip-on device for clothing

Market Model 30.0% 32.0%

57.0K contracts Refresh

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Kalshi

At least 1000

Market Model 98.0% 25.0%

At least 5000

Market Model 44.0% 5.0%

110.8K contracts Refresh

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 30.0% 31.0%

52.8K contracts Refresh

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Kalshi

Anthropic

Market Model 49.0% 37.2%

Google

Market Model 11.0% 25.0%

216.9K contracts Refresh

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 66.0% 46.5%

84.6K contracts Refresh

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 55.0% 55.0%

73.8K contracts Refresh

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Kalshi

Before 2028

Market Model 15.0% 2.0%

Before 2027

Market Model 8.0% 0.1%

46.5K contracts Refresh

Best AI at the end of 2026? Kalshi

Claude

Market Model 62.1% 32.5%

Gemini

Market Model 22.1% 37.9%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	1.0%	0.8%	High	64	Refresh
SpaceX Starship 14th launch? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	82.0%	79.1%	Med	71	Refresh
When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved? Top outcome: Before 2028	20.0%	11.7%	High	77	Refresh
OpenRouter AI token usage in September Top outcome: Above 300T tokens	99.0%	99.0%	High	72	Refresh
Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE) Top outcome: Gemini	29.0%	29.2%	High	72	Refresh
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	91.0%	93.8%	Med	73	Refresh
How many SpaceX launches in 2026? Top outcome: 200 or more	5.0%	6.4%	High	51	Refresh
Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? Top outcome: Above 20k	44.0%	54.5%	High	74	Refresh
Nobel Prize in Economics 2026 Top outcome: Luigi Zingales	8.0%	3.1%	Med	62	Refresh
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Top outcome: Before 2027	12.4%	6.2%	Med	69	Refresh
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI	47.0%	37.8%	Med	69	Refresh
NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027	1.6%	0.6%	High	76	Refresh
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160	36.0%	31.2%	High	69	Refresh
Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027	16.0%	20.8%	Med	69	Refresh
Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 4000	35.0%	46.3%	High	81	Refresh
When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2027	7.0%	8.6%	High	78	Refresh
When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	28.0%	16.6%	High	69	Refresh
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States	54.0%	41.8%	Med	65	Refresh
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90%	7.0%	8.6%	High	76	Refresh
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1? Top outcome: Before 2027	70.0%	66.2%	High	77	Refresh
US test scores in Reading in 2026? Top outcome: Significant decrease	67.0%	64.2%	High	60	Refresh
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? Yes refers to: Before 2030	71.0%	62.1%	Med	79	Refresh
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	58.0%	50.1%	Med	77	Refresh
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? Top outcome: At least 450	22.0%	21.9%	High	68	Refresh
Will there be a year without polio before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	4.3%	4.3%	Med	70	Refresh
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033? Yes refers to: Before 2033	32.0%	35.6%	Med	74	Refresh
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? Yes refers to: Before 2050	16.1%	18.4%	Med	80	Refresh
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? Top outcome: Before 2030	34.0%	16.9%	High	71	Refresh
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? Yes refers to: Before 2050	28.0%	36.7%	Med	76	Refresh
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? Yes refers to: Before 2035	41.0%	20.4%	Med	77	Refresh
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license	23.0%	20.5%	Med	74	Refresh
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use	24.0%	24.5%	Med	77	Refresh
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones	68.0%	65.5%	Med	57	Refresh
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000	98.0%	25.0%	Med	76	Refresh
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	30.0%	31.0%	Med	77	Refresh
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic	49.0%	37.2%	Med	77	Refresh
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	66.0%	46.5%	Med	73	Refresh
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	55.0%	55.0%	Med	61	Refresh
When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028	15.0%	2.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude	62.1%	32.5%	Med	81	Refresh

Expired Markets (35)

OpenAI market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

35.9K contracts

DeepSeek market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.3K contracts

Google market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

52.3K contracts

Tencent market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

70.3K contracts

Qwen market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

12.4K contracts

Anthropic market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

23.5K contracts

Most popular AI this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

13.1K contracts

When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 30.0% 18.1%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 56.0% 37.6%

532.5K contracts

OpenAI corporate adoption rate in August Kalshi

Above 41.5%

Market Model 50.0% 40.0%

Above 40%

Market Model 10.0% 90.0%

8.7K contracts

OpenRouter AI token usage: Aug 24–30 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

25.7K contracts

Will the FDA approve camizestrant for advanced breast cancer? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 13.0% 4.6%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 6.0% 30.1%

12.3K contracts

Stealth market share this week Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

69.5K contracts

When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

29.2K contracts

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 9.8%

$47.9K

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 97.5% 96.0%

$170.1K

Total space launches in July Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

91.0K contracts

How many launches will SpaceX have in July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.1M contracts

When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.7M contracts

Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

282 contracts

Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by May 31, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.0K contracts

NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2 contracts

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

410 contracts

NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27 contracts

NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

216 contracts

NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

193 contracts

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

160 contracts

NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

351 contracts

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

85.1K contracts

AI capability growth before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

70.7K contracts

Best AI this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

334.9K contracts

Best AI in Feb 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6M contracts

What will be the top AI model this month? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.2M contracts

When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

18.5K contracts

Best AI this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

443.7K contracts

What will be the top AI model this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

264.1K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
OpenAI market share this week	—	—	High	70
DeepSeek market share this week	—	—	High	83
Google market share this week	—	—	Med	83
Tencent market share this week	—	—	High	80
Qwen market share this week	—	—	High	73
Anthropic market share this week	—	—	High	79
Most popular AI this week	—	—	High	—
When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	30.0%	18.1%	High	—
OpenAI corporate adoption rate in August Top outcome: Above 41.5%	50.0%	40.0%	High	—
OpenRouter AI token usage: Aug 24–30	—	—	High	—
Will the FDA approve camizestrant for advanced breast cancer? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	13.0%	4.6%	High	—
Stealth market share this week	—	—	High	—
When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7?	—	—	High	—
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	9.8%	Med	52
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	97.5%	96.0%	Med	—
Total space launches in July	—	—	High	—
How many launches will SpaceX have in July?	—	—	High	—
When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?	—	—	High	—
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026?	—	—	High	—
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by May 31, 2026?	—	—	High	—
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 17, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA B200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H200 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
NVIDIA RTX 5090 Compute Price Up or Down by Apr 10, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?	—	—	Med	—
AI capability growth before July?	—	—	Med	—
Best AI this week?	—	—	Med	—
Best AI in Feb 2026?	—	—	Med	—
What will be the top AI model this month?	—	—	High	—
When will xAI release Grok 4.2?	—	—	Med	—
Best AI this week?	—	—	Med	—
What will be the top AI model this week?	—	—	Med	—

Science and Technology Markets

Active Markets (40)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company