Best AI at the end of 2026? Kalshi
Claude
Market Model 62.1% 32.5%
Gemini
Market Model 22.1% 37.9%
Topic tracker · Science and Technology
Year-end top LLM
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 4 so far (1 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Year-end top LLM markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated February 20, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best AI this week? | February 21, 2026 | 90.3% vs 93.5% | Report → |
| Best AI in Feb 2026? | February 28, 2026 | 8.0% vs 12.5% | Report → |
| Best AI this week? | February 14, 2026 | 1.5% vs 1.5% | Report → |
