KPI Whisper · prediction-market signal Company KPIs,
Top print by volume Tesla deliveries in Q2 443K market-implied 97.7% confirms · +1.7pp Model's 97.7% probability exceeds 96c market, a +1.7pp gap amid raised analyst delivery forecasts. Read the report → Company KPIs,
priced live.
Market-implied estimates for the metrics companies are about to report — deliveries, subscribers, orders, DAU — straight from Kalshi order books, ranked by real-money volume and measured against Octagon's model.
Ranked by volume · model edge = model − market
The KPI board
- 01 Tesla deliveries 443K 354K 98% +1.7pp
- 02 Tesla production 443K 243K 95% -3.0pp
- 03 How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter 1.64K 125K 94% -3.4pp
- 04 Robinhood funded customers 28.1M 106K 100% +0.5pp
- 05 Rivian total vehicles delivered 10.9K 75.7K 72% edge n/a
- 06 Sweetgreen profit margin 15 65.9K 98% +0.6pp
- 07 Hims & Hers subscribers 2.76M 63.8K 97% +2.8pp
- 08 Norwegian Cruise passengers carried 3.36M 50.4K 98% +1.2pp
- 09 DoorDash total orders 975M 31.1K 93% -0.9pp
- 10 Clear+ members 8.38M 27.5K 86% -6.1pp
- 11 Reddit daily active uniques 131M 26.5K 99% +0.1pp
- 12 Spotify monthly active users 780M 15.8K 99% +0.1pp
- 13 Reddit daily active uniques 141M 10.6K 96% +0.3pp
- 14 Robinhood funded customers 28.5M 7.64K 89% -2.7pp
model leads (+≥2pp) rich vs model (−≥2pp) confirms
Model vs market · biggest gaps
Where Octagon disagrees
Model sees upside model ≥ +2pp over market
Priced rich vs model market ≥ 2pp above model
Catalyst calendar · nearest first
Reporting soon
- In 53 days (August 21) Tesla deliveries 443K 354K 98% +1.7pp
- In 53 days (August 21) Tesla production 443K 243K 95% -3.0pp
- In 59 days (August 27) Spotify monthly active users 780M 15.8K 99% +0.1pp
- In 60 days (August 28) Robinhood funded customers 28.1M 106K 100% +0.5pp
- In 61 days (August 29) Reddit daily active uniques 131M 26.5K 99% +0.1pp
- In 65 days (September 2) Hims & Hers subscribers 2.76M 63.8K 97% +2.8pp
- In 66 days (September 3) Clear+ members 8.38M 27.5K 86% -6.1pp
- In 66 days (September 3) Rivian total vehicles delivered 10.9K 75.7K 72% edge n/a
