KPI Newsdesk · market vs Octagon model Company KPIs,
Company KPIs,
priced live.
Market-implied forecasts for the metrics companies are about to report — deliveries, subscribers, orders, DAU — from aggregated prediction markets, measured against Octagon's independent model.
Model edge = Octagon model − market-implied
The KPI board
- In 3 days ~Jul 20 Same Store Sales Growth 0 model below
- In 3 days ~Jul 20 Total US Stores 7.24K +2.00 · +0.0%
- In 4 days ~Jul 21 Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts 39.75M near settled
- In 5 days ~Jul 22 Headcount 196K +553.00 · +0.3%
- In 5 days ~Jul 22 Seats Flown 56.45M +2.66M · +4.7%
- In 5 days ~Jul 22 Average Passenger Fare 230 -2.00 · -1.0%
- In 5 days ~Jul 22 Total Rooms 877K -228.00 · -0.0%
- In 5 days ~Jul 22 Shipment Volume 185M -3.23M · -1.8%
- In 6 days ~Jul 23 Headcount 81.95K -345.00 · -0.4%
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Headcount 75.28K model below
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Comparable Restaurant Sales Increase 2 -0.18 · -10.0%
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Funded Customers 28.02M near settled
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Daily Active People 3.62B -3.35M · -0.1%
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Gross Merchandise Volume 22.24B near settled
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales 197K -94.00 · -0.0%
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Gold Subs 4.55M near settled
- In 12 days ~Jul 29 Total Restaurant Count 4.16K near settled
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Cigarette Shipments 15.24B -332M · -2.2%
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Passengers Carried 824K +606.00 · +0.1%
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Hours Engaged 32.93B model below
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Hours Streamed — near settled
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Headcount 1.56M +2.72K · +0.2%
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Total Trading Volume 163B -5.3B · -3.2%
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Monthly Transacting Users 7.91M -47.94K · -0.6%
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Total Shipments 3.46K -7.00 · -0.2%
- In 13 days ~Jul 30 Daily Active Uniques 131M near settled
- In 17 days ~Aug 3 Monthly Transacting Users — near settled
- In 17 days ~Aug 3 Daily Active Users 490M -2.99M · -0.6%
- In 17 days ~Aug 3 Total Rooms 1.81M +1.8K · +0.1%
- In 17 days ~Aug 3 Total Customers 1.07K near settled
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Global Comparable Sales Growth 0.205882 +0.09 · +46.0%
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Total Payers 13.17M +28.78K · +0.2%
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Members 8.35M -11.89K · -0.1%
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Headcount 7.28K near settled
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Total Locations 180K +266.00 · +0.1%
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Total Systemwide Restaurants 46.05K +20.00 · +0.0%
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Monthly Active Users 779M near settled
- In 18 days ~Aug 4 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) 196 near settled
- In 19 days ~Aug 5 Gross Merchandise Volume — near settled
- In 19 days ~Aug 5 Total Orders 974M near settled
- In 19 days ~Aug 5 Items Sold 799M +5.13M · +0.6%
- In 19 days ~Aug 5 Total Rides 255M -927K · -0.4%
- In 20 days ~Aug 6 Bookings 147M -1.75M · -1.2%
- In 20 days ~Aug 6 Total Production (Mboed) — near settled
- In 20 days ~Aug 6 Profit Margin 15 near settled
- In 21 days ~Aug 7 Same-restaurant Sales Growth — model below
- In 24 days ~Aug 10 Subscribers 2.78M +1.64K · +0.1%
- In 25 days ~Aug 11 Restaurants 476 near settled
- In 25 days ~Aug 11 Paying Users 68.43M +1.34M · +2.0%
- In 25 days ~Aug 11 Same Restaurant Sales Growth 9 near settled
- In 27 days ~Aug 13 Customers 139M near settled
- In 28 days ~Aug 14 Paid Customers >$100k Arr — near settled
- In 32 days ~Aug 18 Active Consumers 122M -71.83K · -0.1%
- In 32 days ~Aug 18 Customer Transactions 446M near settled
- In 33 days ~Aug 19 Total Funded Accounts 3.8M +18.73K · +0.5%
- In 33 days ~Aug 19 Transactions Change 3 -0.43 · -14.9%
- In 33 days ~Aug 19 Customer Transactions 224M -1.6M · -0.7%
- In 41 days ~Aug 27 Funded Accounts 5.21M near settled
- In 41 days ~Aug 27 Transactions Growth 1 near settled
- Settles Aug 27 Total Stores 41.34K +8.00 · +0.0%
- Settles Aug 27 Comparable Transactions Growth 4 -0.31 · -7.6%
- Settles Sep 17 Delivered Homes 2.68K +10.00 · +0.4%
- Settles Sep 19 Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) 4 near settled
- Settles Sep 25 Total Stores 810 -2.00 · -0.2%
- In 80 days ~Oct 5 Available Lower Berth Days 24.91M -7.27K · -0.0%
- Settles Nov 27 Food Same-store Sales Growth 2 -0.21 · -8.5%
- Settles Dec 4 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles Dec 9 Passenger Load Factor — near settled
- Settles Dec 24 Customers With Trailing 12-month Revenue >$1m 832 near settled
- Settles Jan 1 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles Jan 1 How many Tesla semi trucks produced 936 +10.00 · +1.1%
- Settles Jan 8 Comparable Store Sales Growth 5 near settled
- Settles Jan 29 Total Vehicles Delivered 12.74K +3.34K · +26.2%
- Settles Jan 29 Total Vehicles US Sales 524K -1.93K · -0.4%
- Settles Jan 30 Total Deliveries 476K -2.97K · -0.6%
- Settles Jan 30 Total Production 472K -4.98K · -1.1%
- Settles Feb 2 Total Beer Shipments 120M -2.4M · -2.0%
- Settles Feb 19 Commercial Airplane Deliveries — near settled
- Settles Feb 19 Deliveries 448K near settled
- Settles Mar 7 Comparable Sales Growth 22 near settled
- Settles Apr 1 Tesla deliveries by 516K -13.13K · -2.5%
- Settles Apr 1 Tesla energy business 26 near settled
- Settles May 2 Passenger Load Factor — near settled
- Settles May 2 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles May 2 Same Store Sales Growth 2 -0.53 · -28.0%
- Settles May 2 Total US Stores 7.38K +106.00 · +1.4%
- Settles May 2 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) 209 +16.00 · +7.5%
- Settles May 2 Food Retail Same-store Sales Growth 2 +0.06 · +2.3%
- Settles May 30 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles Jun 30 Comparable Store Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Jul 30 Comparable Sales Growth 22 -1.00 · -4.9%
- Settles Mar 31 Domestic Cigarette Shipments 58.19B -2.95B · -5.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Restaurant Count 4.38K +4.00 · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Seats Flown 228M +333K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Comparable Transactions Growth — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Premium Subscribers — model below
- Settles Mar 31 Total Payers 13.02M -252K · -1.9%
- Settles Mar 31 Commercial Airplane Deliveries 649 -12.00 · -1.9%
- Settles Mar 31 Items Sold 3.36B +12.72M · +0.4%
- Settles Mar 31 Available Lower Berth Days 97.35M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Total Global Stores 41.58K +39.00 · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Car Shipments 13.65K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Subscribers 3.06M -11.84K · -0.4%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Customer Count 1.2K +9.00 · +0.7%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Deliveries 1.74M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Funded Customers 32.38M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Vehicle Sales Volume 2.03M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Gross Merchandise Volume 87.71B near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Daily Active People 3.74B -5.94M · -0.2%
- Settles Mar 31 Passengers Carried 3.35M +3.41K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Vehicles Delivered — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Daily Active Uniques 141M -358K · -0.3%
- Settles Mar 31 Passengers Flown 186M +203K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Active Clear+ Members 8.75M +75.47K · +0.9%
- Settles Mar 31 Monthly Transacting Users 56.97M +52.76K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Shipment Volume 773M +2.71M · +0.4%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Production 1.77M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Total Locations 190K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Total Monthly Active Users 830M +667K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 79.18K -105.00 · -0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 72.56K -2.29K · -3.2%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 1.57M -7.59K · -0.5%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Customers 148M -513K · -0.3%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 203K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 49.12K +637.00 · +1.3%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 169K -129.00 · -0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 139K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 17.61K +142.00 · +0.8%
- Settles Oct 29 Brands Beer Shipments 415M model below
- Settles May 1 Market Share 26 -0.99 · -3.8%
- Reported Jul 15 Passengers 48.69M model pending
- Reported Jul 14 Commercial Airplane Deliveries 171 model pending
- Reported Jul 6 Total Vehicles Sales 549K model pending
- Reported Jul 2 Production 452K model pending
- Reported Jul 2 Total Vehicles Delivered 12.19K model pending
- Reported Jul 2 Deliveries 480K model pending
- Reported Jun 30 Brands Beer Shipments 113M model pending
- Reported Jun 23 Avg Daily Package Volume 17.1M model pending
- Reported Jun 23 Available Lower Berth Days 24.7M model pending
- Reported Jun 8 Skier Visits 7.28M model pending
- Reported May 28 Total Cardholders 148M model pending
- Reported May 28 Total Funded Accounts 3.59M model pending
- Reported May 27 Customers With Trailing 12-month Revenue Above $1 Million 779 model pending
- Reported May 21 Funded Accounts 5.11M model pending
- Reported May 21 Customer Transactions 197M model pending
- Reported May 19 Restaurants 459 near settled
- Reported May 11 Subscribers 2.58M near settled
- Reported Apr 5 Deliveries 358K +0.00 · +0.0%
- Reported Shipment Volume 186M +2.75M · +1.5%
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Everything on this board — the market-implied forecasts, the P25–P75 bands, Octagon's model estimates, and settled actuals — is served by two REST endpoints.
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GET /v1/predictions/kpi-events
# One KPI event — market vs model vs actual + analysis
GET /v1/predictions/kpi-events/{event_id}