KPI Newsdesk · market vs Octagon model Company KPIs,
Company KPIs,
priced live.
Market-implied forecasts for the metrics companies are about to report — deliveries, subscribers, orders, DAU — from aggregated prediction markets, measured against Octagon's independent model.
Model edge = Octagon model − market-implied
The KPI board
- In 4 days ~Aug 18 Active Consumers 122M -483K · -0.4%
- In 4 days ~Aug 18 Customer Transactions 447M near settled
- In 5 days ~Aug 19 Funded Accounts 5.2M near settled
- In 5 days ~Aug 19 Comparable Sales Growth 0.222222 near settled
- In 5 days ~Aug 19 Transactions Change 3 -0.90 · -26.9%
- In 5 days ~Aug 19 Customer Transactions 223M -1.26M · -0.6%
- In 6 days ~Aug 20 Total Funded Accounts 3.8M -8.76K · -0.2%
- In 11 days ~Aug 25 Comparable Sales — near settled
- In 12 days ~Aug 26 Brand Growth — near settled
- In 13 days ~Aug 27 Same-store Sales Growth — near settled
- In 13 days ~Aug 27 Transactions Growth 1 near settled
- In 19 days ~Sep 2 Active Customers — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 King Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 & Fitch Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Bros Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Foot Traffic — near settled
- Settles Sep 7 Monthly Credit Card Spend — near settled
- Settles Sep 17 Delivered Homes 2.61K +81.00 · +3.1%
- Settles Sep 19 Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) 3 near settled
- Settles Sep 25 Total Stores 809 -0.55 · -0.1%
- In 60 days ~Oct 13 Same Store Sales Growth 2 +0.42 · +20.0%
- In 60 days ~Oct 13 Total US Stores 7.28K near settled
- In 62 days ~Oct 15 Active Brokerage Accounts — model below
- In 68 days ~Oct 21 Seats Flown 57.45M -518K · -0.9%
- In 68 days ~Oct 21 Passengers — near settled
- In 68 days ~Oct 21 Average Passenger Fare — in line
- In 69 days ~Oct 22 Headcount 81.39K -1.07K · -1.3%
- In 69 days ~Oct 22 Total Vehicles US Sales — model below
- In 69 days ~Oct 22 Passenger Load Factor 86 -1.00 · -1.6%
- In 69 days ~Oct 22 Passenger Load Factor 84 -1.00 · -1.2%
- In 70 days ~Oct 23 Cards-in-force 156M near settled
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Commercial Airplane Deliveries 173 near settled
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Daily Active People — model above
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Headcount 69.7K -1.68K · -2.4%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Ad Impressions Growth 11 -2.00 · -22.1%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Total Rooms 880K -3.66K · -0.4%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Headcount 203K +914.00 · +0.5%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Total Deliveries 494K -20.97K · -4.2%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Total Production 478K -10.18K · -2.1%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Search Paid Clicks Change 14 -2.00 · -11.4%
- In 75 days ~Oct 28 Deliveries 448K near settled
- In 76 days ~Oct 29 Module Volume Sold 4.2K near settled
- In 76 days ~Oct 29 Daily Active Users 140M model below
- In 76 days ~Oct 29 Hours Engaged 34.54B +2.23B · +6.4%
- In 76 days ~Oct 29 Headcount 1.6M near settled
- In 76 days ~Oct 29 Daily Active Uniques 132M near settled
- In 76 days ~Oct 29 Cigarette Shipments 14.62B near settled
- In 80 days ~Nov 2 Total Customers 1.07K near settled
- In 80 days ~Nov 2 Subscribers 3.07M near settled
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Total Vehicles Delivered 17.18K -1.1K · -6.4%
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Total Rooms 1.83M near settled
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Gross Merchandise Volume 119B +74.4M · +0.1%
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Total Locations — near settled
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Domestic Same Store Sales Growth — model below
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) — near settled
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Premium Subscribers 306M -833K · -0.3%
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Monthly Active Users 797M -5.5M · -0.7%
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Monthly Transacting Users 55.2M near settled
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Total Restaurants 3.37K -4.00 · -0.1%
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Shipments 3.24K near settled
- In 81 days ~Nov 3 Trips 4.13B +11.1M · +0.3%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Event Contracts Trading Volume 15.76B near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Funded Customers 29.22M +46.76K · +0.2%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Total Orders 993M -102K · -0.0%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Paid Subscribers 13.18M -73.17K · -0.6%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Gold Subs 5.26M -114K · -2.2%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Total Customers — near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Global Comparable Sales Growth 2 near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Fintech Monthly Active Users — near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Active Customers — near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Daily Active Users 495M -2.88M · -0.6%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Total Rides 268M -4.67M · -1.7%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Daily Active Users 60.48M -252K · -0.4%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Customers Over $100k ACV — near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Total Systemwide Restaurants 46.58K +47.00 · +0.1%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Gross Merchandise Volume — near settled
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Total Restaurant Count 4.29K -20.00 · -0.5%
- In 82 days ~Nov 4 Comparable Restaurant Sales Increase 2 -0.92 · -58.3%
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Customers Over $100k ARR — near settled
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Total Production (Mboed) 2.97K near settled
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Bookings 148M -5.3M · -3.6%
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Sportsbook Margin 7 -0.81 · -11.3%
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Average Monthly Unique Payers 3.87M -418K · -10.8%
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Restaurant-level Profit Margin 11 near settled
- In 83 days ~Nov 5 Members — near settled
- In 84 days ~Nov 6 Same-restaurant Sales Growth — in line
- In 87 days ~Nov 9 Funded Accounts — near settled
- In 87 days ~Nov 9 Power Capacity — near settled
- In 87 days ~Nov 9 Vehicles Launched — near settled
- In 88 days ~Nov 10 Paying Users — near settled
- In 88 days ~Nov 10 Total Restaurants 494 near settled
- In 89 days ~Nov 11 Policies In Force — near settled
- In 94 days ~Nov 16 Monthly Active Users — near settled
- Settles Nov 25 Gross Merchandise Volume — near settled
- Settles Dec 2 Customers With Arr Of At Least $1m — near settled
- Settles Dec 4 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles Dec 23 Customers With Over $100k In TTM Revenue — near settled
- Settles Dec 24 Customers With Acv Over $100k — near settled
- Settles Dec 25 Comparable Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Dec 25 Best Buy quarter kpi 0.411765 near settled
- Settles Dec 30 Cardiovascular Organic Growth — near settled
- Settles Dec 31 Customers With Arr Over $100k — near settled
- Settles Jan 1 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles Jan 1 Customers With Arr Of At Least $1m — near settled
- Settles Jan 1 How many Tesla semi trucks produced 827 +120.00 · +14.5%
- Settles Jan 8 Sales Growth (excl. Fuel) — near settled
- Settles Jan 8 Comparable Store Sales Growth 6 near settled
- Settles Jan 26 Available Lower Berth Days 24.91M -7.86K · -0.0%
- Settles Feb 2 Total Beer Shipments 120M -2.4M · -2.0%
- Settles Feb 10 Domestic Parks Attendance Growth 0.8125 -0.73 · -89.6%
- Settles Feb 10 Headcount — model above
- Settles Feb 17 Postpaid Phone Net Additions 233K near settled
- Settles Feb 17 Deliveries 40 near settled
- Settles Mar 4 Gross Transaction Value 10.32B +100M · +1.0%
- Settles Mar 4 Same-store Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Mar 4 Active Subscribers — near settled
- Settles Mar 4 Same-store Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Mar 5 Origination Volume — near settled
- Settles Mar 6 Generation — near settled
- Settles Mar 7 Comparable Sales Growth 31 near settled
- Settles Mar 9 Delivered Homes — near settled
- Settles Mar 10 Active Klarna Consumers 123M near settled
- Settles Mar 13 New Customers — near settled
- Settles Mar 17 Customer Transactions 391M -3.94M · -1.0%
- Settles Mar 19 Total Funded Accounts 4.04M -25.09K · -0.6%
- Settles Mar 19 Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) — model below
- Settles Mar 19 Comparable Sales Growth 0.734043 +0.01 · +1.2%
- Settles Mar 24 Comparable Sales — near settled
- Settles Mar 25 Customers With Trailing 12-month Revenue >$1m — near settled
- Settles Apr 1 Tesla deliveries by 500K +2.49K · +0.5%
- Settles Apr 1 Tesla energy business 19 near settled
- Settles Apr 3 Comparable Sales — near settled
- Settles Apr 23 Cards-in-force 158M -87.02K · -0.1%
- Settles Apr 26 Deliveries 140 near settled
- Settles Apr 27 Passenger Load Factor — near settled
- Settles Apr 27 Postpaid Phone Net Additions 672K +288K · +42.8%
- Settles Apr 27 Total Restaurants 47.51K -24.00 · -0.0%
- Settles Apr 27 Comparable Sales Growth 3 model below
- Settles Apr 27 Passenger Load Factor 83 near settled
- Settles Apr 27 Average Passenger Fare 225 +3.00 · +1.2%
- Settles Apr 28 Advertisement Impressions Growth 15 -2.00 · -11.0%
- Settles Apr 29 Members — near settled
- Settles May 2 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles May 2 Passenger Load Factor 84 near settled
- Settles May 2 Same Store Sales Growth 2 -0.41 · -23.4%
- Settles May 2 Total US Stores 7.37K +114.00 · +1.5%
- Settles May 2 Sold — near settled
- Settles May 2 Generation 53 near settled
- Settles May 2 Same Store Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles May 2 Total System-wide Restaurants 3.53K +30.00 · +0.8%
- Settles May 2 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) 209 +0.81 · +0.4%
- Settles May 2 Food Retail Same-store Sales Growth 3 -0.10 · -4.0%
- Settles May 5 Average Daily Active Users 496M -4.77M · -1.0%
- Settles May 5 Same-store Sales Growth 2 -0.36 · -22.5%
- Settles May 5 Same-store Sales Growth 5 near settled
- Settles May 5 Search Paid Clicks Change 10 near settled
- Settles May 6 Shipment Volume (pouches) — near settled
- Settles May 9 Net Dollar Retention Rate For The >$100k Arr Cohort — near settled
- Settles May 11 Headcount — near settled
- Settles May 12 Hours Engaged — model below
- Settles May 12 Monthly Transacting Users — near settled
- Settles May 12 Event Contracts Total Trading Volume 61.25B near settled
- Settles May 12 Gold Subscribers 5.43M -482K · -8.9%
- Settles May 12 Total Rooms — near settled
- Settles May 12 Daily Active Users — model below
- Settles May 12 Total Rooms 892K near settled
- Settles May 12 Total Rides 1.04B -9.2M · -0.9%
- Settles May 12 Total Orders 3.92B +2.22M · +0.1%
- Settles May 12 Trips 16.14B -19.4M · -0.1%
- Settles May 13 Nights & Experiences Booked 577M -4.51M · -0.8%
- Settles May 14 Headcount — near settled
- Settles May 14 Sportsbook Margin 7 -0.27 · -3.7%
- Settles May 14 Average Monthly Unique Payers 4.11M +8.96K · +0.2%
- Settles May 16 Active Subscribers — near settled
- Settles May 17 Funded Accounts 4.45M near settled
- Settles May 18 Gross Transaction Value 42.14B near settled
- Settles May 19 Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) 4 near settled
- Settles May 24 Fintech Monthly Active Users — near settled
- Settles May 24 Gross Merchandise Volume — near settled
- Settles May 25 Customers With Over $100k In TTM Revenue — near settled
- Settles May 25 Customer Transactions 1.61B -22.82M · -1.4%
- Settles May 26 Funded Accounts 5.32M -58.77K · -1.1%
- Settles May 26 Active Consumers 128M near settled
- Settles May 26 Comparable Sales Growth 0.225275 near settled
- Settles May 26 Paid Customers >$100k Arr 1.96K -17.00 · -0.9%
- Settles May 26 Total Production (Mboed) — model above
- Settles May 26 Total Restaurants 519 -2.00 · -0.5%
- Settles May 26 Restaurant-level Profit Margin 11 near settled
- Settles May 26 Data Centers — near settled
- Settles May 26 Customers With Trailing 12-month Revenue >$1m — near settled
- Settles May 26 Same-restaurant Sales Growth — in line
- Settles May 27 Customer Over$100k ARR — near settled
- Settles May 27 Paid Subscribers 13.73M -232K · -1.7%
- Settles May 27 New Customers — near settled
- Settles May 27 Monthly Active Users — near settled
- Settles May 27 Customers Over $100k ACV — near settled
- Settles May 27 Policies In Force 373K -861.00 · -0.2%
- Settles May 27 Total Global Stores 41.55K +58.00 · +0.1%
- Settles May 27 Transactions Processed — near settled
- Settles May 27 Daily Active Users 63.71M -1.04M · -1.6%
- Settles May 27 Total Customers — near settled
- Settles May 27 Comparable Transactions Growth 4 +0.32 · +7.3%
- Settles May 27 Gross Merchandise Volume — near settled
- Settles May 30 Comparable Sales Growth — model below
- Settles May 31 Best Buy annual kpi — near settled
- Settles May 31 Customers With Arr Over $100k — near settled
- Settles Jun 2 Sales Growth (excl. Fuel) — near settled
- Settles Jun 2 Comparable Sales Growth 0.728261 near settled
- Settles Jun 2 Comparable Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Jun 3 Same Restaurant Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Jun 8 Customers With Arr Of At Least $1m — near settled
- Settles Jun 8 Comparable Sales — near settled
- Settles Jun 9 Same-store Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Jun 9 Comparable Store Sales — near settled
- Settles Jun 9 Comparable Sales — near settled
- Settles Jun 13 Total Funded Accounts 4.19M -13.12K · -0.3%
- Settles Jun 15 Total Comparable Brand Growth — near settled
- Settles Jun 22 Active Customers — near settled
- Settles Jun 26 Paying Users 70.15M near settled
- Settles Jun 30 Comparable Store Sales Growth — near settled
- Settles Jul 30 Comparable Sales Growth 23 -1.00 · -6.4%
- Settles Aug 31 Cardiovascular Organic Growth — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Domestic Cigarette Shipments 58.44B -3.21B · -5.5%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Restaurant Count 4.38K +4.00 · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales 831K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Premium Subscribers — model below
- Settles Mar 31 Total Payers 12.97M -205K · -1.6%
- Settles Mar 31 Seats Flown 228M +214K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Comparable Transactions Growth 4 near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Commercial Airplane Deliveries 651 -15.00 · -2.3%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Global Stores 41.58K +40.00 · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Items Sold 3.37B +337K · +0.0%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Deliveries 1.76M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Funded Customers 29.33M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Total Customer Count 1.2K +7.00 · +0.6%
- Settles Mar 31 Gross Merchandise Volume 87.61B near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Available Lower Berth Days 97.35M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Passengers Carried — in line
- Settles Mar 31 Total Vehicles Delivered 56.77K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Total Car Shipments 13.66K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Daily Active Uniques 141M -343K · -0.2%
- Settles Mar 31 Passengers Flown 187M -897K · -0.5%
- Settles Mar 31 Subscribers 3.1M -57.4K · -1.9%
- Settles Mar 31 Active Clear+ Members 8.7M +125K · +1.4%
- Settles Mar 31 Monthly Transacting Users 56.95M +71.51K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Vehicle Sales Volume 2.07M near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Daily Active People 3.75B -9.28M · -0.2%
- Settles Mar 31 Total Locations 190K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Total Monthly Active Users 831M +426K · +0.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 72.9K -2.63K · -3.6%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 81.5K -2.43K · -3.0%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts — near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 1.57M -7.71K · -0.5%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 7.12K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Customers 148M -513K · -0.3%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 205K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 50.83K -1.07K · -2.1%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 139K near settled
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 17.76K -9.00 · -0.0%
- Settles Mar 31 Headcount 171K -2.1K · -1.2%
- Settles Oct 29 Brands Beer Shipments 415M model below
- Settles May 1 Market Share 26 -0.90 · -3.5%
- Reported Aug 12 Passenger Load Factor 88 model pending
- Reported Aug 11 Same Restaurant Sales Growth 9 model pending
- Reported Aug 11 Restaurants 476 model pending
- Reported Aug 10 Subscribers 2.89M model pending
- Reported Aug 7 Same-restaurant Sales Growth -7 model pending
- Reported Aug 6 Bookings 148M model pending
- Reported Aug 6 Hours Streamed 37.9B model pending
- Reported Aug 6 Profit Margin 13 model pending
- Reported Aug 6 Total Rides 262M model pending
- Reported Aug 5 Total Orders 970M model pending
- Reported Aug 5 Items Sold 795M model pending
- Reported Aug 5 Generation 14 model pending
- Reported Aug 5 Gross Merchandise Volume 22.4B model pending
- Reported Aug 5 Members 8.33M model pending
- Reported Aug 5 Gross Merchandise Volume 116B model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Total Locations 180K model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Total Payers 13.25M model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) 197 model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Monthly Active Users 777M model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Total Restaurants 46.03K model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Comparable Sales Growth 1 model pending
- Reported Aug 4 Monthly Transacting Users 53.9M model pending
- Reported Aug 3 Total Customers 1.05K model pending
- Reported Aug 3 Daily Active Users 493M model pending
- Reported Aug 3 Total Rooms 1.81M model pending
- Reported Aug 3 Total Production (Mboed) 3.34K model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Monthly Transacting Users 7.6M model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Megawatts Sold 3.74K model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Daily Active Uniques 130M model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Hours Engaged 29B model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Passengers Carried 907K model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Cigarette Shipments 15.55B model pending
- Reported Jul 30 Total Shipments 3.37K model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Daily Active People 3.6B model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Headcount 75.47K model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Comparable Restaurant Sales Increase 2 model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Total Restaurant Count 4.19K model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales 197K model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Total Stores 41.3K model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Gold Subs 4.8M model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Funded Customers 28.4M model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Same Store Sales Growth -8 model pending
- Reported Jul 29 Total System-wide Restaurants 3.25K model pending
- Reported Jul 22 Total Rooms 873K model pending
- Reported Jul 22 Average Passenger Fare 226 model pending
- Reported Jul 22 Seats Flown 59.01M model pending
- Reported Jul 22 Headcount 199K model pending
- Reported Jul 21 Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts 39.8M model pending
- Reported Jul 20 Total US Stores 7.23K model pending
- Reported Jul 15 Passengers 48.69M model pending
- Reported Jul 14 Commercial Airplane Deliveries 171 model pending
- Reported Jul 6 Total Vehicles Sales 549K model pending
- Reported Jul 2 Production 452K model pending
- Reported Jul 2 Total Vehicles Delivered 12.19K model pending
- Reported Jul 2 Deliveries 480K model pending
- Reported Jun 30 Brands Beer Shipments 113M model pending
- Reported Jun 23 Avg Daily Package Volume 17.1M model pending
- Reported Jun 23 Available Lower Berth Days 24.7M model pending
- Reported Jun 8 Skier Visits 7.28M model pending
- Reported Apr 5 Deliveries 358K +0.00 · +0.0%
- Reported Shipment Volume 186M +2.75M · +1.5%
- Reported Same Store Sales Growth 0.5 model pending
- Reported Headcount 82.25K model pending
- Reported Shipment Volume 192M model pending
- Reported Comparable Transactions Growth 4 model pending
- Reported Same-store Sales Growth 2 model pending
- Reported Same-store Sales Growth 6 model pending
- Reported Headcount — model pending
- Reported Total Trading Volume 153B model pending
- Reported Food Same-store Sales Growth 2 model pending
- Reported Paying Users 68.5M model pending
- Settles Dec 11 Customers 139M near settled
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GET /v1/predictions/kpi-events
# One KPI event — market vs model vs actual + analysis
GET /v1/predictions/kpi-events/{event_id}