Yes
Market Model 75.0% 80.5%
Financials Markets
Active Markets (46)
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 18.0% 17.5%
At least £10,700
Market Model 20.0% 16.1%
At least £11,200
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
At least ₩8,900
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least ₩8,875
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 4.65%
Market Model 9.0% 6.2%
Above 4.60%
Market Model 14.0% 9.9%
Paramount
Market Model 84.0% 81.3%
Netflix
Market Model 3.0% 1.2%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 16.9%
Before Feb 1, 2027
Market Model 16.0% 10.9%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 16.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 15.0%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 3.0% 1.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 0.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 0.0%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 8.1%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 4.1%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 3.7%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 16.0% 11.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 19.0% 14.7%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 35.0% 33.8%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 8.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 10.0% 7.0%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 15.0% 7.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 32.0% 18.1%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 6.4%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 0.1%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 9.0% 0.1%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 18.5%
5,900 or below
Market Model 23.8% 26.0%
6,300 or below
Market Model 33.1% 36.0%
18,999.99 or below
Market Model 10.0% 6.4%
33,000.01 or above
Market Model 30.0% 25.3%
8,000 or above
Market Model 56.9% 58.1%
7,800 or above
Market Model 65.6% 66.3%
At least $900
Market Model 83.0% 83.1%
At least $1000
Market Model 51.0% 52.6%
Spirit Airlines
Market Model 6.0% 2.2%
Anduril
Market Model 32.0% 19.5%
3,999.99 or below
Market Model 2.0% 1.3%
7,400 to 7,599.99
Market Model 9.0% 6.4%
SpaceX
Market Model 99.0% 99.4%
OpenAI
Market Model 57.0% 65.3%
Citigroup
Market Model 41.0% 27.9%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 31.0% 18.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 5.0% 2.7%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Above 7620
Market Model 97.0% 93.5%
Above 7640
Market Model 28.0% 26.6%
Above 4.70%
Market Model 11.0% 11.5%
Above 4.55%
Market Model 45.0% 44.5%
Mango
Market Model 9.0% 2.4%
Mint
Market Model 30.0% 11.8%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 29.0% 17.3%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 10.8%
Deel
Market Model 60.0% 72.4%
Rippling
Market Model 37.0% 27.6%
WTI Crude Oil
Market Model 34.0% 29.9%
Brent Crude Oil
Market Model 55.0% 70.1%
Gold
Market Model 36.0% 28.7%
S&P 500 Total Return Index
Market Model 65.0% 71.3%
S&P 500 Total Return Index
Market Model 75.0% 89.6%
BTC
Market Model 14.0% 10.4%
above 1020 million
Market Model 5.0% 5.3%
above 1060 million
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Brex
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Ramp
Market Model 91.0% 89.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 81.0% 80.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 31.0% 18.6%
28,400 or above
Market Model 99.9% 100.0%
29,000 or above
Market Model 98.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.5% 22.3%
Yes
Market Model 69.9% 64.8%
7 or above
Market Model 25.0% 18.0%
6.5 or above
Market Model 73.0% 52.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P finish positive this year? Yes refers to: Positive Growth | 75.0% | 80.5% | Med | $769,295.52 | Refresh |
| When will Rippling officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 2.0% | High | $2,878.43 | Refresh |
| How high will the FTSE 100 get in June 2026? Top outcome: At least £10,700 | 20.0% | 16.1% | High | $10,145.57 | Refresh |
| How high will the KOSPI Composite Index get in 2026? Top outcome: At least ₩8,900 | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $17,139.39 | Refresh |
| How high will the 10Y US Treasury Yield climb by month-end? Top outcome: Above 4.65% | 9.0% | 6.2% | Med | $28,058.47 | Refresh |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 84.0% | 81.3% | High | $3,567,970.16 | Refresh |
| When will Anduril officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25.0% | 16.9% | High | $84,756.93 | Refresh |
| When will Beast Industries officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25.0% | 16.0% | High | $7,633.29 | Refresh |
| When will Airtable officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 17.0% | 9.9% | High | $2,437.19 | Refresh |
| When will Brex officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 0.0% | High | $7,182.29 | Refresh |
| When will Cluely officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 4.0% | High | $3,281.11 | Refresh |
| When will Deel officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 8.1% | High | $16,033.34 | Refresh |
| When will Olipop officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 3.0% | 3.7% | High | $3,305.29 | Refresh |
| When will Whoop officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 14.7% | High | $5,992.65 | Refresh |
| When will Stripe officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 8.6% | High | $35,798.04 | Refresh |
| When will Glean officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | $1,166 | Refresh |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | $47,920.22 | Refresh |
| When will AppsFlyer officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 15.0% | 7.5% | High | $964.01 | Refresh |
| When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 8.7% | High | $31,729.73 | Refresh |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 0.1% | High | $403,931.12 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0% | High | $589,588.05 | Refresh |
| How low will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 5,900 or below | 23.8% | 26.0% | High | $681,372.56 | Refresh |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below | 10.0% | 6.4% | High | $2,463,285.32 | Refresh |
| How high will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 8,000 or above | 56.9% | 58.1% | High | $1,434,449.82 | Refresh |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 83.0% | 83.1% | High | $180,787.56 | Refresh |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? Top outcome: Spirit Airlines | 6.0% | 2.2% | Med | $881,008.69 | Refresh |
| S&P close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 3,999.99 or below | 2.0% | 1.3% | High | $3,860,090.71 | Refresh |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 99.0% | 99.4% | Med | $1,836,383.54 | Refresh |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Citigroup | 41.0% | 27.9% | Med | $104,211.74 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 2.7% | High | $803,623.98 | Refresh |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $6,675,610.8 | Refresh |
| How high will the S&P get by month-end? Top outcome: Above 7620 | 97.0% | 93.5% | High | $712,377.94 | Refresh |
| 10Y US Treasury Yield at month-end? Top outcome: Above 4.70% | 11.0% | 11.5% | High | $9,283.34 | Refresh |
| What flavors will JUUL relaunch? Top outcome: Mango | 9.0% | 2.4% | Med | $51,837.22 | Refresh |
| When will Ramp officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 29.0% | 17.3% | High | $5,857.57 | Refresh |
| Will Deel or Rippling IPO first? Top outcome: Deel | 60.0% | 72.4% | High | $9,003 | Refresh |
| Annual Return: WTI vs. Brent? Top outcome: WTI Crude Oil | 34.0% | 29.9% | High | $12,963.95 | Refresh |
| Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? Top outcome: Gold | 36.0% | 28.7% | High | $17,910.1 | Refresh |
| Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC? Top outcome: S&P 500 Total Return Index | 75.0% | 89.6% | High | $7,640.71 | Refresh |
| DoorDash total orders in Q2 Top outcome: above 1020 million | 5.0% | 5.3% | High | $16,208.05 | Refresh |
| Will Ramp or Brex IPO first? Top outcome: Brex | 3.0% | 0.0% | Med | $21,403.45 | Refresh |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Top outcome: Anthropic | 81.0% | 80.0% | Med | $124,032.03 | Refresh |
| How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026? Top outcome: 28,400 or above | 99.9% | 100.0% | High | $227,168.32 | Refresh |
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 30.5% | 22.3% | Med | $162,559.71 | Refresh |
| Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026? Yes refers to: 25,249.86 or above | 69.9% | 64.8% | Med | $54,109.31 | Refresh |
| USD/BRL high in 2026 Top outcome: 7 or above | 25.0% | 18.0% | High | $542,760 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (36)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 76.0% 81.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least $7 million
Market Model 81.0% 1.0%
At least $6 million
Market Model 91.0% 85.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $9,090.3 | ||
| — | — | High | $8,802 | ||
| — | — | Med | $5,729.82 | ||
| — | — | Med | $15,246 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,584 | ||
| — | — | High | $54,326.3 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,212.29 | ||
| — | — | Med | $3,027.15 | ||
| — | — | Med | $613.28 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,404.38 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,254 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,221.06 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,363.25 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,036.71 | ||
| — | — | High | $25,704.9 | ||
| — | — | Med | $204,889.69 | ||
| — | — | High | $174,980 | ||
| — | — | High | $12,948 | ||
| — | — | High | $194,063 | ||
| — | — | High | $12,634 | ||
| — | — | Med | $20,322 | ||
| — | — | High | $39,476 | ||
| — | — | High | $47,936 | ||
| — | — | Med | $582,337 | ||
| — | — | High | $994 | ||
| — | — | High | $177,173 | ||
| — | — | High | $720,493 | ||
| Netflix price increase in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 76.0% | 81.0% | Med | $144,574 | |
| — | — | Med | $58,037 | ||
| — | — | Med | $56,909 | ||
| — | — | Med | $103,769 | ||
| — | — | Med | $59,064 | ||
| — | — | Med | $151,752 | ||
| — | — | Med | $58,466 | ||
| — | — | Med | $297,831 | ||
| What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction? Top outcome: At least $7 million | 81.0% | 1.0% | Med | $499,183 |
