Short Answer

The market considers it unlikely that UiPath will have more than 388 customers with at least $1m in ARR by Q3 2027, despite historical growth and strategic focus on AI-driven platform consolidation; this outcome is priced at 0.0%, with the model at 20.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price moved sharply on October 27, jumping from 1.0% to 95.0%, in direct response to UiPath's second-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results. The report established a baseline of 387 customers with at least $1 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), a 21% increase year-over-year. This new data point rendered a low-end outcome for Q3 highly probable, causing the contract to be repriced to reflect the near-certainty that the final number would exceed a threshold near the Q2 baseline.
The price adjustment occurred on zero traded volume. This indicates the shift was not driven by trader activity or capital flows but was likely an adjustment by the market's originator or automated market maker. The new price reflects the incorporation of the latest public financial data, establishing a revised baseline probability before any significant trading took place. Related markets priced "Above 397" at 72% and "Above 400" at 57%, consistent with a near 100% probability for a bracket just above the last reported figure.
  • Outcomes above 387 customers are likely, given strong historical growth in large accounts.
  • High 109% net retention indicates potential for existing accounts to surpass $1M ARR.
  • Management's AI-driven consolidation focus suggests further growth in large enterprise customers.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 388 0.0% 20.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 391 0.0% 20.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 394 0.0% 20.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 397 0.0% 20.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 400 0.0% 20.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

The most defensible estimate for UiPath's Q3 FY2027 $1M+ ARR customers is 400. This estimate is derived from the Q2 FY2027 baseline of 387 customers with at least $1 million ARR, which marked a 21% year-over-year increase [1]. As of October 27, 2026, the relevant prediction market prices "Above 397" at 72%, "Above 400" at 57%, and "Above 403" at 42% [2]. The market is scheduled to resolve after the quarter, with the display indicating a close on December 2, 2026, at 4:00 p.m. ET [2]. This point estimate is an analytical judgment, not company guidance [2].
UiPath reported Q2 FY2027 revenue of $410 million, up 13% year-over-year. Company ARR reached $1.938 billion, increasing 12% year-over-year, with net new ARR of $37 million [1]. Dollar-based net retention stood at 109%, and gross retention at 97% [1]. Cloud ARR approximated $1.3 billion, growing over 19%, while remaining performance obligations (RPO) were $1.378 billion, up 14% [1]. Non-GAAP operating income was $89 million, and GAAP operating income was $32 million [1]. For Q3 FY2027, management anticipates revenue between $440 million and $445 million, total ARR between $1.992 billion and $1.997 billion by October 31, 2026, and non-GAAP operating income around $100 million [1]. The full FY2027 outlook projects revenue of $1.789 billion to $1.794 billion, ARR of $2.065 billion to $2.070 billion by January 31, 2027, non-GAAP operating income of approximately $445 million, and adjusted free cash flow of roughly $425 million, with non-GAAP gross margin near 84% [1].
Management's strategy emphasizes enterprise consolidation and AI-led expansion. This narrative highlights larger expansions increasingly integrating AI, including a major Canadian bank win involving agentic workflows [3]. Analysts project Q3 FY2027 revenue at approximately $443.0 million and EPS at $0.19, based on Yahoo Finance and MarketWatch consensus figures [4]. MarketWatch also indicates a Hold consensus and an average price target of $17.37 [5]. Q3 FY2027 concludes on October 31, 2026 [2]. Reported earnings dates vary between December 1 and December 9, 2026, suggesting that the official UiPath investor relations calendar should be consulted for the precise release date [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  2. 2UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  3. 3UiPath (PATH) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5PATH | UiPath Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
  6. 6UiPath (PATH) Earnings Dates, Reports & Conference Callmoomoo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 October 26, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 21.0%

Outcome: Above 394

What happened: A definitive primary driver for the 20.0 percentage point spike in the UiPath prediction market on October 26, 2026, cannot be established from the available information. Traditional news flow during October 2026 did not identify a single company-specific catalyst to explain such a substantial movement [1][2]. While social monitoring data indicated elevated positive sentiment and X activity around UiPath, the research explicitly states this activity does not establish causation for a 20% price move [3]. Therefore, social media activity appears to have been a contributing accelerant to overall positive sentiment, rather than the primary driver for this specific, sharp prediction market spike.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Weekly Recap | UiPath +9.96%, closing in on recent range highs | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  2. 2News:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  3. 3Topic $path | LunarCrush for AIlunarcrush.ai

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if UiPath reports having more than 400 customers with an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of at least $1 million for Q3 2027. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if this number is 400 or fewer. Trading for this market ends on December 2, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is April 1, 2027, with no special settlement conditions detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 388 $0.96 $0.05 0%
Above 391 $0.92 $0.09 0%
Above 394 $0.85 $0.16 0%
Above 397 $0.73 $0.28 0%
Above 400 $0.58 $0.43 0%
Above 403 $0.43 $0.58 0%
Above 406 $0.29 $0.72 0%
Above 409 $0.20 $0.81 0%
Above 412 $0.13 $0.88 0%
Above 415 $0.09 $0.92 0%
Above 418 $0.06 $0.95 0%

Market Discussion

As of October 27, 2026, market probabilities indicate a 57% likelihood of UiPath having at least 400 customers with $1M+ ARR in Q3 FY2027 [1], an increase from the 387 customers reported as of July 31, 2026 [2][3][4][5]. While UiPath's Q3 FY2027 guidance projects continued ARR growth and significant AI adoption in deals [2][4][5][6][7], investor sentiment remains mixed, with negative share reactions post-earnings suggesting skepticism about the durability of this growth [4][6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial...ir.uipath.com
  3. 3UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  4. 4UiPath (PATH) Q2 2027 Summary | Quartrquartr.com
  5. 5PATH Q2 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  6. 6Earnings call transcript: UiPath tops revenue forecast in Q2 2026, shares slide By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7UiPath (PATH.US) Q2 conference call: Increased AI penetration rate leverages larger order models irrespective of process orchestration to provide competitive advantagewebull.com

5. What does UiPath's dollar-based net retention rate, last reported at 109%, signal about its ability to expand existing accounts past the $1M ARR threshold in Q3?

Net Retention Rate109% (as of July 31, 2026) [1][2]
$1M+ ARR Customers387 (as of July 31, 2026) [3]
YoY Increase in $1M+ Accounts21% (year over year) [3][4]
UiPath's 109% net retention rate signals positive account expansion potential. As of July 31, 2026, UiPath reported a dollar-based net retention rate of 109%, indicating that its prior-year customer cohort generated 109% of its previous annual recurring revenue (ARR), representing a 9% net expansion rate excluding new customer acquisitions [1][2]. This rate provides positive evidence for the company's capability to expand existing accounts beyond the $1 million ARR threshold [1][4]. However, the net retention rate is not a direct forecast for the precise number of $1M+ customers in Q3 FY2027, given that it is calculated across the entire prior-year customer cohort and is influenced by various factors that differ from the individual account growth required to cross the $1 million threshold [1][4].
Enterprise accounts with $1M+ ARR show strong growth. UiPath had 387 customers generating at least $1 million in ARR as of July 31, 2026, marking a 21% increase year over year [3][4]. This growth trend for larger enterprise accounts appears more robust than the overall retention figure, with attrition primarily concentrated among smaller customers [4][3]. Therefore, the existing 387 customers serve as the relevant baseline for predicting the Q3 FY2027 count of customers with $1M+ ARR [3].
Combined data points suggest a modest increase in $1M+ accounts. The convergence of a 109% net retention rate, a 21% year-over-year growth in accounts exceeding $1 million ARR, and attrition predominantly observed among smaller customers collectively supports a modest increase above 387 customers by Q3 FY2027 [5][3][4]. This outlook aligns with expectations leaning towards approximately 397-400+ customers, though it does not, by itself, establish high confidence for a breakout above 403 customers [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  3. 3UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: UiPath tops revenue forecast in Q2 2026, shares slide By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

6. How might management's commentary on AI-driven platform consolidation during the Q3 FY2027 earnings call affect the outlook for large-customer growth?

Q3 FY2027 $1M+ ARR Customers (Start)387 (up 21% YoY) [1][2]
Dollar-Based Net Retention109% (108% ex-FX) [1][2]
Kalshi Probability >397 Customers72% (as of Oct 27, 2026) [3]
Management commentary suggests a modestly bullish outlook for large customer growth. This outlook applies to the Q3 FY2027 $1 million-plus ARR customer count, indicating a potential to reach or exceed the market's 397 threshold, with stronger evidence for expansion quality than for a precise count above 400 or 403 [1][4][2]. UiPath began Q3 FY2027 with 387 customers generating $1 million-plus ARR, marking a 21% year-over-year increase [1][2]. The positive sentiment is driven by AI-driven platform consolidation, as 18 of the top 20 Q2 deals integrated AI, prompting customers to evolve from individual automation to end-to-end processes [1][2]. This shift involves consolidating automation and AI workloads onto UiPath's platform and focusing on larger enterprise customers, which has resulted in deal values roughly 4–6 times historical averages due to executive-level transformation programs [1][4][5].
Strong Q2 operating indicators support continued expansion for large accounts. Favorable Q2 FY2027 metrics included a 10% rise in customers with over $100,000 ARR, reaching 2,666, alongside a dollar-based net retention of 109% (108% excluding FX), and a gross retention of 97%, with smaller customers responsible for most attrition [1][2]. While Q3 FY2027 guidance projects ARR between $1.992–$1.997 billion as of October 31, 2026, implying $54–$59 million of sequential ARR growth, this forecast supports general expansion rather than directly predicting the Q3 $1 million-plus customer count [1][2]. As of October 27, 2026, the Kalshi market indicated a 72% probability of exceeding 397 customers, 57% for above 400, and 42% for above 403 [3]. However, consolidation can increase ARR within existing large customers without necessarily adding many new $1 million-plus accounts, meaning ARR growth is not a direct forecast for the customer count [1][4][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1UiPath (PATH) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  2. 2UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  3. 3UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  4. 4UiPath at Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference: platform push deepens By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5Earnings call transcript: UiPath tops revenue forecast in Q2 2026, shares slide By Investing.cominvesting.com

7. How does UiPath's recent performance in the enterprise automation market compare to key rivals like Microsoft Power Automate and Automation Anywhere?

UiPath Q2 FY2027 Revenue and ARR$410 million revenue (up 13% YoY), $1.938 billion ARR (up 12% YoY) [1]
UiPath $1M+ ARR Customers (Q2 FY2027)387 customers (up 21% YoY as of July 31, 2026) [2][3]
Microsoft Power Automate Spending Momentum72% net spending score (ETR 2025 survey) [4]
UiPath recently reported solid financial results and significant customer expansion. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, UiPath achieved $410 million in revenue, representing a 13% increase year over year, while Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 12% to $1.938 billion [1]. The company also expanded its reach among large enterprises, reporting 387 customers with at least $1 million in ARR as of July 31, 2026, marking a 21% year over year increase [2][3]. Looking ahead to Q3 FY2027, UiPath anticipates revenue between $440–$445 million and ARR ranging from $1.992–$1.997 billion [1][5]. A base case projection suggests UiPath could reach approximately 400–403 customers with at least $1 million ARR in Q3 FY2027 [1][6][2].
Key rivals Microsoft Power Automate and Automation Anywhere show strong market presence. Microsoft Power Automate is recognized as a leader in process automation, demonstrating robust spending momentum with a 72% net spending score in ETR’s 2025 survey [4]. Its integration within the broader Microsoft ecosystem and extensive distribution network provide substantial advantages, with 93% of Fortune 500 companies reportedly utilizing Power Automate [7]. Automation Anywhere, a private entity, is making significant strides in enterprise AI, with its AI-powered offerings accounting for 61% of its Q4 software bookings [8]. The company also reported a 23% year over year growth in its $1M+ ARR customer count in its latest full-year update and 25% year over year growth for enterprises with over $1 million ARR in Q1 FY2027 [8][9][10].
Directly comparing these companies' financial performance remains challenging. This difficulty arises primarily from their differing disclosure practices; Microsoft does not provide specific revenue figures for Power Automate, and Automation Anywhere offers less standardized financial reporting compared to UiPath [7][11][10][4][8][1].
Sources (11)
  1. 1UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  2. 2Earnings call transcript: UiPath tops revenue forecast in Q2 2026, shares slide By Investing.cominvesting.com
  3. 3UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  4. 4Microsoft Leads Process Automation While AI Reshapes Vendor Positioningresearch.etr.ai
  5. 5PATH Q2 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  6. 6UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  7. 7Copilot in Power Automatemarketingassets.microsoft.com
  8. 861% of Q4 Software Bookings from AIautomationanywhere.com
  9. 9Automation Anywhere Reports Largest Outcome-Based Transaction in Company's History while Gaining Significant Momentum on AI Deploymentsitnewsonline.com
  10. 10Automation Anywhere Accelerates Momentumautomationanywhere.com
  11. 11AI-Powered Development Tools | Microsoft Power Platformmicrosoft.com

8. Where in UiPath's Q3 FY2027 earnings release and 10-Q filing will the definitive count of customers with over $1 million in ARR be published?

Q3 FY2027 Reporting DateDecember 9, 2026 [1][2]
Q2 FY2027 Customers with >= $1M ARR387 (as of July 31, 2026) [3]
Prediction Market DeadlineDecember 2, 2026 [4]
The definitive count of UiPath customers with over $1 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for Q3 FY2027 is anticipated in the company's Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 [3]. This specific data point is expected to be located in the “Key Performance Metric” section, within the ARR-related data table, under the row titled “Customers with ARR >= $1 million: Number of customers” [3]. While the earnings release may also provide this key performance indicator, the 10-Q filing is considered the authoritative source in case of any discrepancies [3][2]. The strongest definitive source for resolution is identified as the explicitly stated customer count in the Q3 10-Q's “Customers with ARR >= $1 million” row [2].
UiPath's Q3 FY2027 earnings release is expected in December. The Q3 FY2027 earnings release is projected to be posted on December 9, 2026, on UiPath’s Investor Relations Quarterly Results page [1][2]. For context, UiPath’s previous Q2 FY2027 10-Q reported 387 customers with ARR of at least $1 million as of July 31, 2026 [3]. A prediction market's displayed deadline of December 2, 2026, appears inconsistent with the currently indicated Q3 earnings timing [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Quarterly Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  2. 2UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  3. 3September 8, 2026 - 10-Q: Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] | UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  4. 4UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

9. What does UiPath's historical growth rate in its large-enterprise customer segment imply for the upcoming Q3 FY2027 report?

Customers $1M+ ARR (Q2 FY2027)387 (end of Q2 FY2027) [1][2]
YoY Growth $1M+ ARR Customers21% (Q2 FY2027) [1][2]
Expected Customers $1M+ ARR (Q3 FY2027)Approximately 400-403 [1][2]
UiPath demonstrated strong large-enterprise customer growth and retention in Q2 FY2027. The company concluded Q2 FY2027 with 387 customers generating at least $1 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), marking a 21% year-over-year increase in this segment [1][2]. This performance builds on a historical base of 317 customers at or above $1 million ARR in FY2025 [1][3]. Management highlighted robust enterprise retention, noting that customer attrition was primarily observed among smaller accounts, while dollar-based net retention stood at 109% [4][5][6]. Net new ARR also improved to $37 million from $31 million in Q1, further supported by UiPath's constructive guidance for Q3 FY2027 [1][4][5].
Q3 FY2027 large-enterprise customer forecasts project modest sequential growth. Prediction markets estimate approximately 400-403 customers with at least $1 million in ARR for Q3 FY2027 [1][2]. While a direct application of the 21% year-over-year growth rate would aggressively imply about 468 customers, a more conservative sequential-growth approach suggests a range of roughly 400-410 customers [1][3][4][5][6]. This indicates that an outcome above 397 customers is plausible, though achieving above 403 customers is less certain [1]. UiPath cautions that historical revenue and ARR growth should not be considered a forecast, as growth can decelerate due to business maturation, increased competition, technology changes, or macroeconomic conditions, rendering such customer-count extrapolations directional rather than deterministic [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  3. 3UiPath Annual Report Fiscal Year 2025ir.uipath.com
  4. 4PATH Q2 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  5. 5Earnings call transcript: UiPath tops revenue forecast in Q2 2026, shares slide By Investing.cominvesting.com
  6. 6UiPath Q2 FY2027 slides: profitability rises, AI drives enterprise deals By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7UiPath Annual Report Fiscal Year 2026ir.uipath.com
  8. 8March 25, 2026 - 10-K: Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] | UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

UiPath's Q3 FY2027 customer count with at least $1 million ARR is a primary catalyst. As of October 27, 2026, Kalshi market probabilities were 72% for above 397, 57% for above 400, and 42% for above 403 [1]. This market closes December 2, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. ET [1]. UiPath reported 387 customers with at least $1 million ARR as of July 31, 2026, an increase from 320 a year prior; this cohort represented 50% of current-period revenue, up from 47% year-over-year [2][3]. The market's 72% probability above 397 is consistent with modest sequential growth from 387. The 57% probability above 400 implies roughly even odds of reaching at least 401, while above 403 is a more demanding bull case at 42% [1][2][3]. The Q3 FY2027 ARR measurement date is October 31, 2026 [4]. Management's Q3 FY2027 guidance includes revenue of $440 million-$445 million, ARR of $1.992 billion-$1.997 billion as of October 31, 2026, and non-GAAP operating income of approximately $100 million [5][6][7].
Bullish catalysts include enterprise concentration, AI-agent and orchestration adoption, and expansion within large accounts [8][9][10]. A major Canadian-bank win has been noted [8][9][10]. Approximately $1.3 billion of cloud ARR is growing more than 19% [8][9][10]. Management's stated focus is on attaching orchestration and Test Suite across the installed base [8][9][10]. Underlying operating momentum entering Q3 included total ARR of $1.938 billion, up 12% year over year; net new ARR of $37 million; dollar-based net retention of 109%; 2,666 customers with at least $100,000 ARR; and approximately 10,350 total customers [2][3][8].
Bearish risks involve a variable macroeconomic environment, attrition concentrated among smaller customers, foreign-exchange headwinds, and execution risk from leadership changes [5][7][8][10]. Uncertainty around converting AI/platform positioning into sustained net-new ARR acceleration also represents a risk [5][7][8][10]. The Q3 FY2027 earnings report is currently listed for December 9, 2026 [11]. For FY2027, guidance is revenue of $1.789 billion-$1.794 billion, ending ARR of $2.065 billion-$2.070 billion as of January 31, 2027, non-GAAP operating income of approximately $445 million, adjusted free cash flow of approximately $425 million, and non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 84% [5][7][12][13]. The FY2027 ending-ARR measurement date is January 31, 2027 [5][7][12][13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: April 01, 2027
  • Closes: April 01, 2027
Sources (13)
  1. 1UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q3 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  3. 3UiPath Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending July 31, 2026 (Form 10-Q)ebs.publicnow.com
  4. 4PATH | UiPath Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
  5. 5UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7UiPath (PATH) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8Earnings call transcript: UiPath tops revenue forecast in Q2 2026, shares slide By Investing.cominvesting.com
  9. 9UiPath Q2 FY2027 slides: profitability rises, AI drives enterprise deals By Investing.cominvesting.com
  10. 10UiPath at Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference: platform push deepens By Investing.cominvesting.com
  11. 11UiPath Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results Conference Call:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  12. 12UiPath (PATH) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  13. 13UiPath (PATH) Q2 2027 Summary | Quartrquartr.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPATH-26SEPCUST1M-410: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
  • KXPATH-26SEPCUST1M-400: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
  • KXPATH-26SEPCUST1M-390: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
  • KXPATH-26SEPCUST1M-380: YES (Sep 08, 2026)
  • KXPATH-26SEPCUST1M-370: YES (Sep 08, 2026)