Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for UiPath reporting Above 400 customers with at least $1 million ARR in fiscal 2027, at 20.0% model probability versus 0.0% market probability. This divergence is driven by evidence of UiPath's continued growth in large customers, its strong Q1 FY2027 performance, strategic enterprise AI integration, and positive overall ARR guidance for FY2027.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, pricing the likelihood of UiPath having at least 400 customers with $1M+ ARR in fiscal 2027, has been entirely static. The contract has a single price point of 88.0% and has recorded zero trading volume. With no price action, the trend is flat. The 88.0% level serves as the market's sole, untested price point. The absence of trading activity indicates a complete lack of market participation or disagreement with the initial pricing.
The high probability of 88.0% is anchored by UiPath's Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results. The company reported 374 customers in the target cohort as of April 30, 2026, which is just 26 customers shy of the 400 threshold needed for a "YES" resolution. This customer segment also grew 18% year-over-year. The market price reflects a strong consensus that adding the required number of high-value customers over the remaining three quarters of the fiscal year is highly probable. The lack of trading suggests the market views the outcome as nearly certain based on the available data, leaving little incentive for new positions.
  • UiPath reported 374 customers with over $1M ARR in Q1 fiscal 2027, providing a strong base.
  • GenAI product pipeline and enterprise AI strategy likely boost large customer acquisition and expansion.
  • Successful commercial adoption of agentic AI (Maestro) may drive expansion in enterprise AI deals.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 420 60.0% 20.0% Market higher by 40.0pp
Above 450 6.0% 10.0% Model higher by 4.0pp
Above 400 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 410 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 430 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

UiPath expanded its high-value customer base and overall ARR in Q1. As of April 30, 2026 (Q1 fiscal 2027), UiPath reported 374 customers with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $1 million or more; this represented an 18% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. Total ARR reached $1.901 billion, a 12% year-over-year growth [4][5][2]. The company also noted 2,624 customers with $100,000 or more in ARR, an 11% increase from the prior year [2][3]. For the full fiscal year 2027, UiPath has provided ARR guidance in the range of $2.058 billion to $2.063 billion, based on figures as of January 31, 2027 [4][5][2].
UiPath reported revenue growth and projected substantial full-year fiscal 2027 results. UiPath's Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue was $418 million, a 17% increase year-over-year [2][3]. The dollar-based net retention rate stood at 109% [2][3]. Full-year fiscal 2027 revenue is projected between $1.776 billion and $1.781 billion [4][6]. The company targets a non-GAAP operating income of approximately $430 million for the full fiscal year [4][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1UiPath Inc. (PATH) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - Roic AIroic.ai
  2. 2UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3UiPath Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsbarchart.com
  4. 4UiPath Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Resultsir.uipath.com
  5. 5UiPath, Inc. (PATH) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  6. 6UiPath posts Q1 profit with 17% revenue growth | PATH 8-K Filingstocktitan.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the number of UiPath customers with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of at least $1 million in fiscal year 2027 is above the specific threshold of the purchased contract (e.g., "Above 420"). Conversely, it resolves NO if the number is at or below that threshold. Trading ends on March 10, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout expected by June 8, 2027. No special settlement conditions are detailed beyond these criteria and dates.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 420 $0.68 $0.41 60%
Above 450 $0.07 $0.98 6%
Above 400 $0.98 $0.11 0%
Above 410 $0.82 $0.27 0%
Above 430 $0.31 $0.78 0%
Above 440 $0.14 $0.95 0%

Market Discussion

UiPath reported 374 customers with at least $1 million in ARR as of April 30, 2026, representing an 18% year-over-year increase [1][2][3][4]. While the company has provided guidance for total ARR in fiscal year 2027 to be between $2.058 billion and $2.063 billion as of January 31, 2027 [5][6][2][7], market discussions in mid-2026 have centered on the enterprise segment's ability to drive long-term expansion (including $1M+ ARR customers) amidst concerns over overall ARR growth deceleration and attrition in smaller accounts [3][8][4].

Sources (8)
  1. 1UiPath Inc. (PATH) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - Roic AIroic.ai
  2. 2UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3UiPath Q1 Earnings Call Highlights — StockScreenerstockscreener.finance
  4. 4UiPath Rises 14%, Eyes $31 Million ARR Challengets2.tech
  5. 5UiPath Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Resultsir.uipath.com
  6. 6UiPath, Inc. (PATH) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  7. 7Earnings call transcript: UiPath’s Q1 2027 revenue beats forecasts, stock rises By Investing.comca.investing.com
  8. 8UiPath Price Forecast: PATH Posts First-Ever GAAP Profit as AI Deals Grow 6x Largertradingkey.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 67 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score42High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 420—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
79Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 42079
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 420100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
42High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 79 across 1 legs

$100 order: 4.5c slippage (~7% of a 63.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 420–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality79Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
79 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 21, 2026

5. What are analysts' projections for UiPath's count of customers with over $1M ARR for fiscal year 2027?

Analyst FY2027 $1M+ ARR Customer ProjectionNot available [1][2][3][4][5][6]
UiPath FY2027 $1M+ ARR Customer GuidanceNo specific future guidance provided [7][8][9][10]
UiPath $1M+ ARR Customers Q1 FY2027374 (as of April 30, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
Analysts do not provide FY2027 projections for UiPath's $1M+ ARR customers. There are no publicly available analyst consensus projections or reliable estimates for UiPath's count of customers with over $1 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) specifically for fiscal year 2027 [1][2][3][4][5][6].
UiPath provides current $1M+ ARR customer count, but no future projections. The company itself has not offered specific forward-looking guidance or projections for the exact number of customers with over $1 million ARR for the full fiscal year 2027 [7][8][9][10]. As of the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, reported on May 28, 2026, UiPath had 374 customers with at least $1 million in ARR [7][8][9][10]. This figure, reported as of April 30, 2026, is a management-provided number, not an analyst forecast [1][2][3][4][5][6]. While UiPath has guided to a total ARR for fiscal year 2027 in the range of $2.058 billion to $2.063 billion, this guidance does not include a breakdown of customer cohorts by ARR tier and therefore does not provide insight into the $1 million+ ARR customer count [8][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1PATH_Q22026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2PATH_Q22026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3PATH_Q22026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4PATH_Q22026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  6. 6www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
  7. 7https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_PATH_2026-05-28finance.biggo.com
  8. 8UiPath Q1 Earnings Call Highlights — StockScreenerstockscreener.finance
  9. 9https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/path/earnings/q1-2027-reporttipranks.com
  10. 10UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

6. How are UiPath's strategic partnerships and GenAI product pipeline expected to influence large customer acquisition through fiscal 2027?

AI in top deals16 of 20 (Q1 FY2027) [1][2]
AI-inclusive deal size6 times larger than non-AI deals [1][2]
$1M+ ARR Customers374 (as of April 30, 2026) [1][3]
UiPath's GenAI product pipeline significantly boosts customer acquisition and expansion. The company's strategy involves embedding AI and agentic automation directly into its process orchestration platform, which is expected to synergistically drive customer growth and expansion [1][2]. This approach has shown tangible results, with AI integrated into 16 of the top 20 deals in Q1 FY2027. Furthermore, AI-inclusive expansion deals proved to be six times larger than those without [1][2]. UiPath's management views AI products as synergistic catalysts, capable of pulling through other platform components, thereby driving both customer retention and high-value expansion [2][4].
Strategic partnerships and robust customer metrics underpin UiPath's growth trajectory. Key collaborations with partners such as Deloitte, Accenture, Microsoft, and Databricks are central to UiPath's go-to-market and operationalization strategy [5][6][7]. These partnerships are crucial for scaling enterprise deployments and integrating UiPath's platform within complex customer ecosystems, including ERPs [5][6][7]. As of April 30, 2026, UiPath reported 374 customers generating over $1 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) [1][3]. The company's fiscal 2027 guidance targets an ARR in the range of $2.058 billion to $2.063 billion by January 31, 2027 [1][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1UiPath Price Forecast: PATH Posts First-Ever GAAP Profit as AI Deals Grow 6x Largertradingkey.com
  2. 2UIPATH INC Earnings Call Transcript FY26 Q4stockinsights.ai
  3. 3UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  4. 4UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7UiPath Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Resultsbarchart.com

7. How does UiPath's growth rate in enterprise customers (>$1M ARR) compare to key competitors like Automation Anywhere and Microsoft Power Automate?

UiPath $1M+ ARR Customers374 (as of April 30, 2026) [1][2]
UiPath $1M+ ARR Customer YoY Growth18% [1][2]
UiPath $1M+ ARR Customer Growth (FY2024-FY2026)35% [3]
UiPath shows consistent growth in its large enterprise customer base. As of Q1 fiscal 2027, which concluded on April 30, 2026, UiPath reported 374 customers generating at least $1 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). This represents an 18% year-over-year increase for this segment [1][2]. Looking at a broader historical trend, UiPath's customer base with $1 million-plus ARR grew from 264 customers in fiscal year 2024 to 357 in fiscal year 2026, marking a 35% growth over that two-year period [3].
Direct comparisons with key competitors are challenging due to data availability. Publicly available information regarding the growth rate of enterprise customers generating at least $1 million in ARR for competitors such as Automation Anywhere and Microsoft Power Automate is not available [3][4][5]. Automation Anywhere, operating as a private company, does not disclose specific financial metrics like its count of $1M+ ARR customers [3][4][5]. Similarly, Microsoft Power Automate does not publicly report specific enterprise customer counts in this category. Its RPA and automation functionalities are typically integrated within the broader Microsoft 365 and Power Platform ecosystem, making direct, head-to-head enterprise ARR customer comparisons with standalone vendors like UiPath difficult [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_PATH_2026-05-28finance.biggo.com
  2. 2UiPath Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsbarchart.com
  3. 3UIPATH, INC. (PATH) — Stock Analysis & Business Breakdown | OmahaLineomahaline.com
  4. 4UiPath vs Power Automate vs Automation Anywhere 2026strategypeeps.com
  5. 5UiPath vs Microsoft Power Automate vs Automation Anywhere: 2026 Detailed Comparison, Pricing, AI Features & Which to Choose - InfoSeeMediainfoseemedia.com

8. What is the timeline for UiPath's upcoming fiscal 2027 earnings reports, and which releases will provide updates on the $1M+ ARR customer count?

Fiscal 2027 Q1 Earnings Report DateMay 28, 2026 [1]
Fiscal 2027 Q2 Earnings Release DateSeptember 3, 2026 [1]
Customer $1M+ ARR ReportingRegularly provided in quarterly earnings releases [2][3][4]
UiPath's fiscal 2027 earnings reports span from May 2026 to early 2027. The company's fiscal year 2027 encompasses four quarters: Q1, which concluded on April 30, 2026; Q2, ending July 31, 2026; Q3, ending October 31, 2026; and Q4, ending January 31, 2027 [1]. UiPath released its Q1 FY2027 results on May 28, 2026 [1]. The earnings release for Q2 FY2027 is scheduled for September 3, 2026 [1]. While the dates for Q3 and Q4 are not yet confirmed, these reports typically occur in early December and early March, respectively [1][5][6].
Updates on $1M+ ARR customers are a consistent feature in earnings. UiPath routinely includes information on customers with $1 million or more in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [2][3][4]. This data is provided within its quarterly earnings press releases and during the accompanying conference calls [2][3][4]. This practice was observed in the Q1 FY2027 report and is anticipated to continue for all subsequent fiscal 2027 earnings releases [2][3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1UiPath Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results Conference Call:: UiPath, Inc. (PATH)ir.uipath.com
  2. 2UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/path/earnings/q1-2027-reporttipranks.com
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: UiPath’s Q1 2027 revenue beats forecasts, stock rises By Investing.comm.investing.com
  5. 5https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/path/earningstipranks.com
  6. 6https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/PATH/earnings/marketbeat.com

9. What does UiPath's official fiscal 2027 ARR guidance imply for the required growth in its cohort of customers paying over $1 million?

FY27 ARR Guidance$2.058 billion to $2.063 billion (as of January 31, 2027) [1][2]
Customers with $1M+ ARR (Q1 FY27)374 (as of April 30, 2026) [2][3]
YoY Increase in $1M+ ARR Customers (Q1 FY27)18% [2][3]
UiPath's fiscal 2027 ARR guidance ranges from $2.058 billion to $2.063 billion. The company officially projects its fiscal year 2027 Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) to be between $2.058 billion and $2.063 billion as of January 31, 2027 [1][2]. However, UiPath has not provided specific fiscal year-end guidance for the count of customers paying over $1 million in ARR [3].
The $1 million+ ARR customer cohort expanded by 18% year-over-year. As of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended on April 30, 2026, UiPath reported 374 customers with an ARR of at least $1 million [2][3]. This segment demonstrated an 18% year-over-year increase during that period [2][3]. While no explicit growth target for this specific customer group has been outlined for the full fiscal year 2027, the achievement of the overall fiscal 2027 ARR guidance is significantly dependent on contributions from existing enterprise customers [3]. These enterprise customers currently account for approximately 70% of the company's ARR growth [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1UiPath Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Resultsir.uipath.com
  2. 2UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3UiPath Rises 14%, Eyes $31 Million ARR Challengets2.tech

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Bullish catalysts include the successful commercial adoption of agentic AI (Maestro) platform, expansion in high-margin enterprise AI deals, share buybacks, and operating margin improvements [1].
Bearish catalysts include risks from generative AI cannibalizing traditional RPA, competition from entrenched giants like Microsoft and ServiceNow, and slowing ARR growth or declining net retention rates [2][3].
As of the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended April 30, 2026), UiPath reported 374 customers with $1 million or more in ARR, representing an 18% year-over-year increase [4][5]. For fiscal year 2027, UiPath has guided for revenue in the range of $1.776 billion to $1.781 billion and ending ARR in the range of $2.058 billion to $2.063 billion as of January 31, 2027 [6][7][8]. A notable key date is October 14, 2026, the expiration date for a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by an entity controlled by CEO Daniel Dines to sell up to 2.975 million Class A shares [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 08, 2027
  • Closes: June 08, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1UiPath Stock: The Odds Of Agentic AI Are Not Priced In (NYSE:PATH) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  2. 2UiPath (PATH) Price Prediction 2026: Cheap Value Play or AI Cannibalization Trap?bingx.com
  3. 3PATH Stock Forecast & Price Target 2026 | Is PATH a Good Stock to Buy? | RockFlowrockflow.ai
  4. 4UiPath Inc. (PATH) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - Roic AIroic.ai
  5. 5UiPath (PATH) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6UiPath Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Resultsir.uipath.com
  7. 7UiPath, Inc. (PATH) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  8. 8UiPath posts Q1 profit with 17% revenue growth | PATH 8-K Filingstocktitan.net