Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Klaviyo to have Above 4950 customers generating over $50k ARR in fiscal 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market is illiquid and has not established a clear trend. Price discovery has been erratic, with quotes ranging from a low of 1.0% to a high of 49.0% before settling at a current price of 2.0%. These movements have occurred without any corresponding trade volume. The lack of trading activity means the chart reflects initial price setting, not a market consensus reacting to new information.
The price action does not appear to be a direct response to the provided context. Klaviyo reported strong Q2 2026 results, including reaching 4,477 customers with over $50k in ARR, a 36% year-over-year increase. The company also raised its full-year 2026 outlook. The market's target appears to be 4,950 customers. The current low probability of 2.0% implies a view that the company will fail to add the net 473 customers required in the final two quarters of the fiscal year. This pricing stands in contrast to the company's reported growth momentum.
The most significant technical factor is the zero-contract volume. This indicates a complete lack of conviction from market participants. Without executed trades, key technical levels like support and resistance have not been formed. The current price of 2.0% represents an untested offer, not a consensus valuation. The market sentiment, as implied by the price, is highly pessimistic, but this reading is unreliable until meaningful volume participates.
  • Above 4950 carries low model probability despite Klaviyo's 36% Q2 customer growth.
  • Strategic AI enhancements and Agency acquisition target continued growth in the large-customer segment.
  • Analysts do not project fiscal 2026 customer counts; Klaviyo offers no specific segment guidance.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 4950 0.0% 0.8% Model higher by 0.8pp
Above 5025 0.0% 0.7% Model higher by 0.7pp
Above 5100 0.0% 0.6% Model higher by 0.6pp
Above 5175 0.0% 0.5% Model higher by 0.5pp
Above 5250 0.0% 0.4% Model higher by 0.4pp

Current Context

Klaviyo reported 4,477 customers with over $50,000 ARR in Q2 FY2026. As of June 30, 2026, these customers represented a 36% year-over-year increase and accounted for approximately 40% of Klaviyo's total ARR [1][2][3].
The company delivered strong Q2 2026 financial results and raised its FY2026 outlook. Revenue for Q2 2026 reached $370.6 million, up 26% year-over-year, alongside $82.9 million in free cash flow [4][5]. Klaviyo revised its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance upwards to a range of $1.526 billion to $1.534 billion, projecting 24% year-over-year growth [2][4].
Recent August 2026 developments include strategic AI investments and international expansion. Klaviyo acquired the AI-native customer success company Agency and expanded its 'Composer' AI marketing agent capabilities [6][7]. The company also established a new Asia headquarters in Singapore [8]. Concurrently, a website configuration bug that inadvertently shared sign-up information for a small number of customers with third-party advertisers was reported and subsequently fixed [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIP...finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Klaviyo tops 205,000 customers as new products roll outstocktitan.net
  4. 4Klaviyo Q2 FY2026 earnings: 26% revenue growth supports a higher outlooktradingkey.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6Klaviyo strengthens AI capabilities with strategic acquisition of Agency team and technology - Klaviyoklaviyo.com
  7. 7Composer: Generate Flows, Segments, and Push in One Prompt - Klaviyoklaviyo.com
  8. 8Klaviyo opens Asia HQ in Singapore as AI rewrites the rules of shopping - Klaviyoklaviyo.com
  9. 9Signed up for Klaviyo? Dozens of advertisers may have...techcrunch.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 16.0%

Outcome: Above 5100

What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point spike was the release of Klaviyo's Q2 2026 earnings report around August 11-12, 2026 [1][2]. The report announced 4,477 customers with over $50,000 ARR as of June 30, 2026, marking a 36% year-over-year increase and exhibiting accelerating sequential growth from previous quarters [3][1][4][5][6][7][8]. This robust performance and positive trajectory in a directly relevant metric likely boosted market confidence that Klaviyo would surpass 5100 customers by fiscal 2026. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no specific catalyst or viral narrative coinciding with the price move was identified [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Klaviyo, Inc. Hits Day High with Strong 7.52% Intraday Surgemarketsmojo.com
  3. 3Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: Klaviyo shares slide after q2 2026...investing.com
  5. 5Klaviyo tops 205,000 customers as new products roll outstocktitan.net
  6. 6www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  7. 7www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  8. 8www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Klaviyo customers over $50k ARR in fiscal 2026 - Above 5175" contract, a "YES" resolution occurs if Klaviyo reports more than 5175 customers with over $50k ARR for fiscal year 2026. Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if the reported number of such customers is 5175 or less. Trading on this market concludes on February 12, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is May 13, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 4950 $0.99 $0.06 0%
Above 5025 $0.92 $0.17 0%
Above 5100 $0.64 $0.45 0%
Above 5175 $0.31 $0.78 0%
Above 5250 $0.13 $0.96 0%

Market Discussion

Klaviyo reported 3,291 customers generating over $50,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for Q2 FY2026 as of June 30, 2026, marking a decline from 4,175 customers in Q1 FY2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These higher-ARR customers account for approximately 40% of Klaviyo's total ARR, and investor sentiment appears generally bullish despite a cooling of retail social media chatter [7][8][9][10]. The company updated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $1.526 billion to $1.534 billion and revised its non-GAAP operating income guidance to $212 million–$218 million following Q2 results [11][12].

Sources (12)
  1. 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  2. 2techcrunch.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  4. 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6techcrunch.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7klaviyo-inc-q2-earnings-call-signals-growth-first-strategytipranks.com
  8. 8Klaviyo (KVYO) Sentiment Analysis: Bullish or Bearish? Score 88/100 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  9. 9KVYO Stock Sentiment Today: Reddit, X & Newsadanos.org
  10. 10Klaviyo (KVYO) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
  11. 11Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  12. 12Q1 2026 Klaviyo Transcripts203.q4cdn.com

5. How might Klaviyo's recent AI product enhancements and acquisition of Agency influence its large-customer growth through fiscal year-end 2026?

FY 2026 Revenue Projection$1.526 billion to $1.534 billion [1][2]
FY 2026 Revenue Growth (YOY)24% [1][2]
Customers with >$50k ARR (Q2 2026)4,477 [3]
Klaviyo's AI enhancements and Agency acquisition target large-customer growth. Klaviyo's management anticipates that recent AI product enhancements and the acquisition of Agency will be key drivers of growth, particularly among its larger customer base, through the end of fiscal year 2026 [4][5][6][7][8]. The core of this strategy is to boost multi-product adoption and monetization through the deployment of AI-powered agents [9].
Agency acquisition accelerates agentic product development for autonomous B2C CRM. The acquisition of Agency, along with the appointment of its former CEO Elias Torres as Klaviyo’s new Chief Product Officer, is set to accelerate the development of Klaviyo’s "agentic" product line [4][5][6][7][8]. This includes offerings like Composer and Customer Agent, designed to facilitate more autonomous B2C CRM experiences [4][5][6][7][8]. For large customers, Klaviyo plans to leverage these AI-powered agents to increase interaction volume and usage frequency, aiming to consolidate marketing, service, and analytics functions into a unified experience [9].
Klaviyo projects strong fiscal year 2026 revenue with significant large-customer growth. Klaviyo's financial outlook for fiscal year 2026 projects revenue between $1.526 billion and $1.534 billion, reflecting a robust 24% year-over-year growth [1][2]. This projection includes absorbing $10 million to $12 million in costs associated with the Agency acquisition [1][2]. As of the second quarter of 2026, Klaviyo reported 4,477 customers with over $50,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), marking a 36% year-over-year increase and contributing approximately 40% to its total ARR [3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Klaviyo Delivers Strong Q2 as Autonomous B2C CRM...investors.klaviyo.com
  2. 2Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  4. 4Klaviyo Expands AI Agents to Power the Autonomous B2C...klaviyo.com
  5. 5Klaviyo Launches AI Agents that Work Together to Drive Revenue for Consumer Brands - Klaviyoklaviyo.com
  6. 69 New Klaviyo AI Features for Autonomous Marketing &...klaviyo.com
  7. 7Klaviyo strengthens AI capabilities with strategic...klaviyo.com
  8. 8Klaviyo acquires Agency's AI technology and names Elias Torres product chief - RuntimeWireruntimewire.com
  9. 9https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1835830/000183583026000020/kvyo-2026arsfinal.pdfsec.gov

6. Based on Klaviyo's updated FY2026 revenue guidance, what is the implied growth rate for its >$50k ARR customer segment?

FY2026 Revenue Guidance Range$1.526 billion to $1.534 billion [1][2]
FY2026 Overall YOY Revenue Growth24% [1][2]
>$50k ARR Customer Segment Growth (Q2 2026)36% year-over-year [1][3]
Klaviyo has not provided specific forward-looking growth for its >$50k ARR segment. An implied growth rate for Klaviyo's customer segment with over $50,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for fiscal year 2026 cannot be determined from the company's updated FY2026 revenue guidance alone, as explicit forward-looking guidance for this specific segment has not been released [1][3].
Klaviyo's updated FY2026 revenue guidance projects 24% year-over-year growth. The company's overall fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance is set between $1.526 billion and $1.534 billion, which indicates a 24% year-over-year growth rate for the entire company [1][2]. While Klaviyo did report a 36% year-over-year growth for its >$50k ARR customer segment as of Q2 2026, this figure represents historical performance for a specific quarter and is not a forward-looking projection for the entire fiscal year 2026 [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  3. 3Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 earnings review - Finseefinsee.ai

7. How does Klaviyo's growth rate for customers over $50k ARR compare to that of key competitors like HubSpot in fiscal year 2026?

Klaviyo $50k+ ARR Customer Growth36% year-over-year in Q2 FY26 (4,477 customers) [1][2]
HubSpot $60k+ ARR Deal Growth37% year-over-year in Q1 FY26 [3][4]
Reporting ThresholdsKlaviyo uses $50k+ ARR, HubSpot uses $60k+ and $120k+ ARR [1][3][5]
Both Klaviyo and HubSpot reported strong customer growth in high-value segments during fiscal year 2026. Klaviyo saw a 36% year-over-year increase in customers generating over $50,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of the second quarter, reaching a total of 4,477 customers [1][2]. Similarly, HubSpot demonstrated robust performance, with deals exceeding $60,000 ARR growing by 37% year-over-year during the first quarter of 2026 [3][4].
Direct comparison is challenging due to differing customer value thresholds used by each company. Klaviyo reports on customers with over $50,000 ARR, while HubSpot provides metrics for deals exceeding $60,000 ARR and also for the $120,000+ ARR segments [1][3][5]. Despite these reporting differences, both Klaviyo and HubSpot have exhibited strong and comparable upmarket momentum throughout the first half of fiscal year 2026, even amidst prevailing macroeconomic challenges [1][3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Earnings call transcript: Klaviyo shares slide after q2 2026...investing.com
  3. 3https://ir.hubspot.com/static-files/a4c0bbe9-83ff-47b3-89f6-259fecf58a2eir.hubspot.com
  4. 4HubSpot Q1 2026 Earnings: Margin Expansion Hits 2027 Target a Year Early | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5HubSpot (HUBS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

8. What is the expected release date for Klaviyo's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report, which will contain the final customer ARR data?

Expected Q4 FY2026 Earnings Releaseearly February 2027 [1]
Fiscal Year EndDecember 31 [2][3][4]
Data in Q4 FY2026 EarningsFinal customer ARR data [1]
Klaviyo's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings are anticipated in early February 2027. This report is expected to contain the final customer Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) data for the entire fiscal year 2026, making it a crucial release for understanding the company's full-year performance [1].
Klaviyo consistently releases its Q4 and full-year reports in early February. The company's fiscal year concludes on December 31st, meaning fiscal year 2026 will end on December 31, 2026 [2][3][4]. Historically, Klaviyo has maintained a pattern of releasing its Q4 and full-year earnings reports in early February of the subsequent calendar year. For instance, the Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings were published on February 10, 2026 [2][3][4][1]. This established historical trend supports the expectation for the Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release in early February 2027.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Calendar Klaviyo, Inc.marketscreener.com
  2. 2Klaviyo Delivers Outstanding 2025 Results: 32% Revenue...investors.klaviyo.com
  3. 3Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO) 10-K Annual Report February 2026last10k.com
  4. 4KLAVIYO, INC. - Cloudfront.netd18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net

9. What are the current analyst projections for Klaviyo's number of customers with over $50k ARR by the end of fiscal 2026?

Customers over $50k ARR (Q2 2026)4,477 [1][2][3]
Customers over $50k ARR (FY 2025)3,912 [4][5][6]
Customers over $50k ARR (Q1 FY26)4,175 [7][8][9][10][11][12]
Analysts do not currently project Klaviyo's $50k+ ARR customer count for fiscal 2026. Specific projections for Klaviyo's number of customers with over $50k ARR by the end of fiscal 2026 are not available from analyst reports or company-issued forecasts in the reviewed sources [7][8][9][10][11][12]. Klaviyo's guidance is typically focused on broader financial metrics such as overall revenue, which for FY 2026 is projected between $1.526 billion and $1.534 billion, and operating income, rather than this specific customer segment metric [13][1].
Klaviyo shows consistent growth in its high-value customer segment. Recent reported figures indicate ongoing growth in the number of customers with over $50k ARR. As of the end of Q2 2026, Klaviyo reported 4,477 customers in this segment, marking a 36% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. Earlier in fiscal year 2026, specifically as of March 31, 2026 (Q1 FY26), the company had 4,175 customers with over $50k ARR, representing a 38% year-over-year growth [7][8][9][10][11][12]. To provide further context, at the close of fiscal year 2025, Klaviyo recorded 3,912 customers with over $50k ARR [4][5][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  3. 3Earnings call transcript: Klaviyo shares slide after q2 2026...investing.com
  4. 4Klaviyo Delivers Outstanding 2025 Results: 32% Revenue Growth, Record Fourth Quarter and Raised Fiscal Year 2026 Outlookbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Klaviyo (KVYO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Klaviyo Q4 2025 Earnings Transcripts203.q4cdn.com
  7. 7seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  8. 8techcrunch.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  10. 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  11. 11seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  12. 12techcrunch.comOctagon Agent
  13. 13EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIP...finance.yahoo.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Klaviyo reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $370.6 million, representing 26% year-over-year growth [1][2][3]. The company also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $1.526 billion to $1.534 billion [1][2][3]. As of June 30, 2026, Klaviyo had 4,477 customers generating over $50,000 in ARR, reflecting 36% year-over-year growth [4][1][5]. Bullish catalysts include sustained enterprise adoption, momentum in AI-powered products such as Composer and Customer Agent, and the acquisition of the AI-native firm Agency [1][3][6][7].
Conversely, bearish catalysts include margin pressure from messaging infrastructure costs, heavy reliance on the Shopify ecosystem, and competitive pressure from legacy enterprise marketing clouds [1][3][6][7]. Upcoming fiscal 2026 key dates include the Q1 earnings release on May 5, 2026, and the Q2 earnings release on August 5, 2026 [2][5]. Quarterly results are expected for Q3, ending September 30, 2026, and for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026 [2][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 13, 2027
  • Closes: May 13, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Earnings call transcript: Klaviyo shares slide after q2 2026...investing.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Klaviyo Q2 FY2026 earnings: 26% revenue growth supports a higher outlooktradingkey.com
  4. 4Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Klaviyo tops 205,000 customers as new products roll outstocktitan.net
  6. 6Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  7. 7How Investors Are Reacting To Klaviyo (KVYO) Q2 Beat, Higher Guidance, AI Deal And Buybacks - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st