Remitly active customers in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Remitly active customers in fiscal 2026 will be above 10.8 million, with no actionable edge.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's probability trended sharply upward, climbing from a 1.0% starting price to its current 18.0%. The definitive price action began around August 12, 2026, when the probability leaped from 1.0% to 17.0% over a single day. The price has since consolidated at a new high of 18.0%, indicating a fundamental repricing rather than a temporary spike.
The primary driver for this re-rating was Remitly's Q2 2026 earnings release on August 5. The company announced it had surpassed 10 million active customers for the first time, reporting a record 10.2 million for the quarter. Remitly also raised its full-year 2026 outlook. The market's sharp positive reaction suggests traders immediately priced in the strong performance and improved guidance, shifting sentiment on the company's growth trajectory.
Total trading volume across the contract stands at 1,098. The initial price of 1.0% acted as a floor before the breakout. The current price of 18.0% is the contract high and serves as the immediate resistance level. The rapid price appreciation suggests a decisive shift in market expectations following the corporate filing.
- Remitly's 10.2 million Q2 2026 active customers and campaign support exceeding 10.8 million.
- Raised FY2026 outlook and strong performance suggest active customers above 10.9 million.
- Mexico's remittance rebound and consistent 20% growth may drive higher customer count.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 11.2 million | 20.0% | 22.0% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Above 11.1 million | 29.0% | 33.5% | Model higher by 4.5pp |
| Above 11 million | 46.0% | 42.3% | Market higher by 3.7pp |
| Above 10.9 million | 55.0% | 42.3% | Market higher by 12.7pp |
| Above 11.3 million | 3.0% | 0.9% | Market higher by 2.1pp |
Current Context
Remitly surpassed 10 million active customers in Q2 2026. The company reported 10.2 million quarterly active customers as of Q2 2026, marking the first time it surpassed the 10 million milestone [^][^][^]. This figure follows 9.6 million active customers reported in Q1 2026 [^][^][^]. Q2 2026 performance included $495.2 million in revenue, a 20% year-over-year increase, and $23.5 billion in send volume, up 27% year-over-year [^][^].
Remitly projects strong fiscal year 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth. For fiscal year 2026, Remitly projects total revenue between $1.978 billion and $1.988 billion, representing 21%–22% year-over-year growth [^][^][^]. Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $410 million and $415 million [^][^][^]. Management attributes this growth to the "Skip the Line" campaign, AI-driven operating efficiencies, and a strategic focus on high-value senders and business customers [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 12, 2026: 36.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 37.0%
Outcome: Above 11 million
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was traditional news and company announcements. Remitly announced strong Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, reporting 10.2 million quarterly active customers, a new record, and raised its full-year 2026 outlook [^][^][^]. Although Remitly did not report 11 million active customers, this positive earnings report and the subsequent earnings call on August 12, 2026, likely boosted confidence in the company reaching "Above 11 million" active customers by fiscal 2026 [^][^][^]. There is no evidence of social media activity being a primary driver or contributing accelerant; rather, it appears irrelevant given the direct link between the price movement and the company's financial disclosures [^][^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Remitly's active customers in fiscal 2026 are reported to be above the specific threshold stated in the contract. A "No" resolution occurs if the active customers are not above that threshold. Trading for these markets concludes on February 26, 4:00 pm EST, with the maximum payout date set for May 27, 2027. No special settlement conditions are specified beyond the reported number of active customers.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10.8 million | $0.79 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Above 10.9 million | $0.63 | $0.45 | 55% |
| Above 11 million | $0.46 | $0.63 | 46% |
| Above 11.1 million | $0.30 | $0.72 | 29% |
| Above 11.2 million | $0.18 | $0.86 | 20% |
| Above 11.3 million | $0.11 | $0.92 | 3% |
| Above 11.4 million | $0.08 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above 11.5 million | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Remitly reported 10.2 million quarterly active customers for Q2 2026, marking the first time the company surpassed 10 million active users [^][^][^]. Following the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, market sentiment has been largely bullish, driven by the company's pivot to a broader cross-border financial services platform, strong growth in high-value sender segments, and raised full fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score62Caution
Trade quality20% of score0Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score47High Risk
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Market integrity85
Outcome is hard to influenceStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality0
Order book is critically thinAvoid
6. How might the performance of Remitly's 'Skip the Line' campaign and other marketing initiatives impact new customer acquisition in the second half of 2026?
| Quarterly Active Customers (Q2 2026) | 10.2 million [^][^] |
|---|---|
| LTV to CAC Ratio | Approximately 6x [^][^] |
| Full-Year 2026 Revenue Projection | $1.978 billion to $1.988 billion [^][^] |
Remitly's extended 'Skip the Line' campaign targets increased customer acquisition. The company plans to continue this initiative into the second half of 2026, building on its prior success as a significant driver for new customer acquisition. Alongside this, Remitly projects a slight increase in Q3 marketing spend for year-over-year quarterly active user growth and expanded brand marketing efforts in the UAE, all anticipated to positively influence new customer acquisition [^][^].
Remitly maintains a disciplined marketing strategy with impressive efficiency metrics. This strategy is characterized by a robust lifetime value to customer acquisition cost (LTV to CAC) ratio of approximately 6x and a payback period of under 12 months. The company aims to further enhance these marketing efficiencies in the latter half of 2026. In Q2 2026, Remitly successfully reached 10.2 million quarterly active customers, marking the first time it surpassed 10 million [^][^][^].
7. How does Remitly's year-over-year active customer growth in 2026 compare to that of key competitors like Wise and Western Union?
| Remitly Active Customer Growth | 20% year-over-year (H1 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Wise Active Customer Growth | 21% year-over-year (FY 2026) [^] |
| Western Union Branded Digital Transaction Growth | 25% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Remitly and Wise showed strong active customer growth in 2026. Remitly demonstrated a consistent 20% year-over-year growth in active customers during the first half of 2026, reporting 9.6 million active customers in Q1 2026 and increasing to 10.2 million in Q2 2026 [^][^]. Wise concluded its fiscal year 2026 (ending March 31, 2026) with a 21% year-over-year increase in active customers, reaching a total of 18.9 million [^]. For its Q4 FY26, Wise also noted 11.3 million active customers, representing a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^].
Western Union's reporting highlights transaction growth, not active customers. The company's reporting structure differs, as it does not publicly disclose total active customer counts in a manner directly comparable to Remitly or Wise [^]. However, Western Union reported growth in its transaction volumes for Q2 2026. Its Branded Digital business experienced a 25% year-over-year increase in transactions, while its total Consumer Money Transfer (CMT) business grew by 3% year-over-year in transactions [^][^][^][^].
8. Based on Remitly's reports from 2024 through Q2 2026, what does the historical quarter-over-quarter growth trend imply for Q3 and Q4 2026?
| Active Customers (Q2 2026) | 10.2 million [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Year-over-year increase | 20% [^][^] |
| Active Customers (Q1 2026) | 9.6 million [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Remitly demonstrated strong annual customer growth but flat sequential performance. The company reported 10.2 million active customers in Q2 2026, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [^][^]. Despite this robust annual expansion, historical quarter-over-quarter trends suggest a stabilization in active customer growth. Specifically, Remitly reported 9.6 million active customers for both Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
This flat sequential growth implies near-term stabilization in customer acquisition. Absent evidence of re-acceleration, active customer growth is likely to remain low, near 0%, on a quarter-over-quarter basis for Q3 2026, and potentially Q4 2026, unless a new step-change in performance emerges [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Management anticipates revenue growth for the remainder of 2026 will be supported by a strategic shift towards digital remittances and high-value senders, with Q4 typically experiencing outsized volume due to the holiday season [^][^]. To confirm or refute the stabilization implication, it will be crucial to observe whether reported quarterly active customers for Q3 2026 materially exceed 9.6 million and if Q4 2026 continues an upward pattern or reverts to flat or declining sequential change [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What level of active customer growth is implied by Remitly's official FY2026 revenue guidance when analyzed against historical ARPU trends?
| FY2026 Revenue Guidance | $1.978 billion to $1.988 billion (21% to 22% YoY growth) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Active Customer Growth | 20% year-over-year [^] |
| Projected Send Volume per Customer Growth (remainder 2026) | mid to high single digits range [^][^] |
Remitly projects strong revenue growth, surpassing active customer expansion, for fiscal year 2026. The company's official revenue guidance anticipates between $1.978 billion and $1.988 billion for the year, representing a 21% to 22% year-over-year increase [^][^]. This forecast, based on explicit Q3 2026 guidance, indicates that revenue growth is expected to modestly exceed active customer growth for the fiscal year [^].
Growth in high-value customers and transaction sizes drives anticipated ARPU gains. In Q2 2026, Remitly reported a 20% year-over-year increase in both active customers and revenue [^]. The company attributes its positive revenue and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) trends to a growing proportion of "high-value senders and business customers" and larger average transaction sizes [^][^]. Management further expects the send volume per active customer to rise in the "mid to high single digits range" through the remainder of 2026, reinforcing the expectation for revenue growth to outpace active customer growth [^][^].
10. What macroeconomic trends in key remittance corridors like US-Mexico and US-Philippines could impact Remitly's customer growth in H2 2026?
| US-Mexico Remittance Growth H1 2026 | 3.1% year-over-year increase [^][^] |
|---|---|
| US-Philippines Remittance Growth Early 2026 | Slowed to a four-year low of approximately 2% [^][^] |
| Impact of 2026 US Regulations on Remitly | Minimal material impact [^][^] |
Mexico's remittances saw a strong rebound in early 2026. This trend aligns with broader macroeconomic expectations for key remittance corridors in H2 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Remittances to Mexico in the US-Mexico corridor increased by 3.1% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. This growth occurred despite a U.S. executive order designed to restrict financial access for undocumented migrants [^][^].
Philippines remittances faced slowdowns but anticipate H2 2026 recovery. In the US-Philippines corridor, remittance growth decelerated to a four-year low of approximately 2% in early 2026. This slowdown was primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties, specifically the Middle East conflict [^][^]. However, a partial recovery for remittances is projected for the second half of 2026, following recent de-escalation efforts in the region [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Remitly reached 10.2 million active customers in Q2 2026, marking a 20% year-over-year increase and the first time surpassing the 10 million milestone [^] . For fiscal year 2026, the company raised its outlook to revenue of $1.978 billion to $1.988 billion, representing 21%–22% growth, and Adjusted EBITDA of $410 million to $415 million [^][^]. Bullish catalysts include the transition toward a broader cross-border finance platform, the expansion of 'Growth Accelerators' such as the Remitly Global Card and business payments, and strong operating leverage [^][^]. For Q3 2026, Remitly expects revenue of $505 million to $507 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $92 million to $94 million [^].
Potential bearish risks include execution challenges with new products, possible margin strain from high-value user mix shifts, and sensitivity to currency fluctuations in key corridors such as India [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 27, 2027
- Closes: May 27, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Remitly reached 10.2 million active customers in Q2 2026, marking a 20% year-over-year increase and the first time surpassing the 10 million milestone [^] .
- Trigger: For fiscal year 2026, the company raised its outlook to revenue of $1.978 billion to $1.988 billion, representing 21%–22% growth, and Adjusted EBITDA of $410 million to $415 million [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include the transition toward a broader cross-border finance platform, the expansion of 'Growth Accelerators' such as the Remitly Global Card and business payments, and strong operating leverage [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For Q3 2026, Remitly expects revenue of $505 million to $507 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $92 million to $94 million [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
