Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Remitly active customers in fiscal 2026 will be above 10.8 million, with no actionable edge.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's probability trended sharply upward, climbing from a 1.0% starting price to its current 18.0%. The definitive price action began around August 12, 2026, when the probability leaped from 1.0% to 17.0% over a single day. The price has since consolidated at a new high of 18.0%, indicating a fundamental repricing rather than a temporary spike.
The primary driver for this re-rating was Remitly's Q2 2026 earnings release on August 5. The company announced it had surpassed 10 million active customers for the first time, reporting a record 10.2 million for the quarter. Remitly also raised its full-year 2026 outlook. The market's sharp positive reaction suggests traders immediately priced in the strong performance and improved guidance, shifting sentiment on the company's growth trajectory.
Total trading volume across the contract stands at 1,098. The initial price of 1.0% acted as a floor before the breakout. The current price of 18.0% is the contract high and serves as the immediate resistance level. The rapid price appreciation suggests a decisive shift in market expectations following the corporate filing.
  • Remitly's 10.2 million Q2 2026 active customers and campaign support exceeding 10.8 million.
  • Raised FY2026 outlook and strong performance suggest active customers above 10.9 million.
  • Mexico's remittance rebound and consistent 20% growth may drive higher customer count.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 11.2 million 20.0% 22.0% Model higher by 2.0pp
Above 11.1 million 30.0% 33.5% Model higher by 3.5pp
Above 11 million 46.0% 42.3% Market higher by 3.7pp
Above 10.9 million 55.0% 42.3% Market higher by 12.7pp
Above 11.3 million 3.0% 0.9% Market higher by 2.1pp

Current Context

Remitly surpassed 10 million active customers in Q2 2026. The company reported 10.2 million quarterly active customers as of Q2 2026, marking the first time it surpassed the 10 million milestone [1][2][3]. This figure follows 9.6 million active customers reported in Q1 2026 [1][4][3]. Q2 2026 performance included $495.2 million in revenue, a 20% year-over-year increase, and $23.5 billion in send volume, up 27% year-over-year [1][5].
Remitly projects strong fiscal year 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth. For fiscal year 2026, Remitly projects total revenue between $1.978 billion and $1.988 billion, representing 21%–22% year-over-year growth [1][3][5]. Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $410 million and $415 million [1][3][5]. Management attributes this growth to the "Skip the Line" campaign, AI-driven operating efficiencies, and a strategic focus on high-value senders and business customers [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  3. 3Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  4. 4Remitly Reports Record First Quarter Results and Raises...ir.remitly.com
  5. 5Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  6. 6Remitly Global (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 12, 2026: 36.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 37.0%

Outcome: Above 11 million

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was traditional news and company announcements. Remitly announced strong Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, reporting 10.2 million quarterly active customers, a new record, and raised its full-year 2026 outlook [1][2][3]. Although Remitly did not report 11 million active customers, this positive earnings report and the subsequent earnings call on August 12, 2026, likely boosted confidence in the company reaching "Above 11 million" active customers by fiscal 2026 [1][2][4]. There is no evidence of social media activity being a primary driver or contributing accelerant; rather, it appears irrelevant given the direct link between the price movement and the company's financial disclosures [3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Remitly Stock Surges Following Massive Q2 Earnings Beat and Record User Growth | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  5. 5Remitly: Business Receivers Top 25,000 As First $1 Million Volume Customer Joins Platformpulse2.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Remitly's active customers in fiscal 2026 are reported to be above the specific threshold stated in the contract. A "No" resolution occurs if the active customers are not above that threshold. Trading for these markets concludes on February 26, 4:00 pm EST, with the maximum payout date set for May 27, 2027. No special settlement conditions are specified beyond the reported number of active customers.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 10.8 million $0.81 $0.28 70%
Above 10.9 million $0.66 $0.42 55%
Above 11 million $0.50 $0.59 46%
Above 11.1 million $0.37 $0.69 30%
Above 11.2 million $0.22 $0.86 20%
Above 11.3 million $0.12 $0.96 3%
Above 10.5 million $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 10.6 million $0.99 $0.10 0%
Above 10.7 million $0.92 $0.17 0%
Above 11.4 million $0.08 $0.98 0%
Above 11.5 million $0.06 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

Remitly reported 10.2 million quarterly active customers for Q2 2026, marking the first time the company surpassed 10 million active users [1][2][3]. Following the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, market sentiment has been largely bullish, driven by the company's pivot to a broader cross-border financial services platform, strong growth in high-value sender segments, and raised full fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance [1][3][4][5][6][7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  2. 2Remitly Global, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:RELY) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  3. 3Remitly Stock Surges Following Massive Q2 Earnings Beat and Record User Growth | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  5. 5Remitly Global (RELY) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  6. 6Remitly stock gains 7.2% on record Q2 revenue and first-ever 10 million active customerstradersunion.com
  7. 7Remitly Global (RELY) Is Up 7.2% After Raising 2026 Outlook And Launching New Global Card Product – Has The Bull Case Changed? - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  8. 8Remitly Global (RELY) Stock Jumps On Margin Breakthrough And Profit Surge - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 49 High Risk

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score65Caution
Trade quality20% of score0Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score49High Risk

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity91
Outcome is hard to influenceStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality0
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
91Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
0Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 9.6c slippage (~28% of a 34.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 52.1c slippage (~151% of a 34.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 11.1 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 11.2 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 27, 2026

6. How might the performance of Remitly's 'Skip the Line' campaign and other marketing initiatives impact new customer acquisition in the second half of 2026?

Quarterly Active Customers (Q2 2026)10.2 million [1][2]
LTV to CAC RatioApproximately 6x [1][3]
Full-Year 2026 Revenue Projection$1.978 billion to $1.988 billion [4][2]
Remitly's extended 'Skip the Line' campaign targets increased customer acquisition. The company plans to continue this initiative into the second half of 2026, building on its prior success as a significant driver for new customer acquisition. Alongside this, Remitly projects a slight increase in Q3 marketing spend for year-over-year quarterly active user growth and expanded brand marketing efforts in the UAE, all anticipated to positively influence new customer acquisition [1][3].
Remitly maintains a disciplined marketing strategy with impressive efficiency metrics. This strategy is characterized by a robust lifetime value to customer acquisition cost (LTV to CAC) ratio of approximately 6x and a payback period of under 12 months. The company aims to further enhance these marketing efficiencies in the latter half of 2026. In Q2 2026, Remitly successfully reached 10.2 million quarterly active customers, marking the first time it surpassed 10 million [1][3][2].
Strong Q2 results prompt an upward revision of Remitly's financial outlook. Following this performance, Remitly has updated its full-year 2026 financial guidance. The company now anticipates total revenue to range between $1.978 billion and $1.988 billion [4][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  3. 3Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  4. 4Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com

7. How does Remitly's year-over-year active customer growth in 2026 compare to that of key competitors like Wise and Western Union?

Remitly Active Customer Growth20% year-over-year (H1 2026) [1][2]
Wise Active Customer Growth21% year-over-year (FY 2026) [3]
Western Union Branded Digital Transaction Growth25% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [4][5][6][7]
Remitly and Wise showed strong active customer growth in 2026. Remitly demonstrated a consistent 20% year-over-year growth in active customers during the first half of 2026, reporting 9.6 million active customers in Q1 2026 and increasing to 10.2 million in Q2 2026 [1][2]. Wise concluded its fiscal year 2026 (ending March 31, 2026) with a 21% year-over-year increase in active customers, reaching a total of 18.9 million [3]. For its Q4 FY26, Wise also noted 11.3 million active customers, representing a 22% year-over-year increase [8][9].
Western Union's reporting highlights transaction growth, not active customers. The company's reporting structure differs, as it does not publicly disclose total active customer counts in a manner directly comparable to Remitly or Wise [4]. However, Western Union reported growth in its transaction volumes for Q2 2026. Its Branded Digital business experienced a 25% year-over-year increase in transactions, while its total Consumer Money Transfer (CMT) business grew by 3% year-over-year in transactions [4][5][6][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record First Quarter Results and Raises...ir.remitly.com
  3. 3Wise Group plc reports Full Year 2026 Financial Resultsowners.wise.com
  4. 4Western Union Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Western Union presses on with digital transformation in Q2 26fxcintel.com
  6. 6The Western Union Company (WU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  7. 7Western Union Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
  8. 8EX-99.1sec.gov
  9. 9Wise plc Q4 FY26 Trading Updatewise.com

8. Based on Remitly's reports from 2024 through Q2 2026, what does the historical quarter-over-quarter growth trend imply for Q3 and Q4 2026?

Active Customers (Q2 2026)10.2 million [1][2]
Year-over-year increase20% [1][2]
Active Customers (Q1 2026)9.6 million [3][4][5][6][7][8]
Remitly demonstrated strong annual customer growth but flat sequential performance. The company reported 10.2 million active customers in Q2 2026, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [1][2]. Despite this robust annual expansion, historical quarter-over-quarter trends suggest a stabilization in active customer growth. Specifically, Remitly reported 9.6 million active customers for both Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8].
This flat sequential growth implies near-term stabilization in customer acquisition. Absent evidence of re-acceleration, active customer growth is likely to remain low, near 0%, on a quarter-over-quarter basis for Q3 2026, and potentially Q4 2026, unless a new step-change in performance emerges [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Management anticipates revenue growth for the remainder of 2026 will be supported by a strategic shift towards digital remittances and high-value senders, with Q4 typically experiencing outsized volume due to the holiday season [9][2]. To confirm or refute the stabilization implication, it will be crucial to observe whether reported quarterly active customers for Q3 2026 materially exceed 9.6 million and if Q4 2026 continues an upward pattern or reverts to flat or declining sequential change [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Remitly Global, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:RELY) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  3. 3Remitly Global, Inc. (10-Q) - 2024-Q3, Page: 30Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4Remitly Global, Inc. (10-Q) - 2024-Q3, Page: 31Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5Remitly Global, Inc. (10-Q) - 2024-Q3, Page: 32Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6Remitly Global, Inc. (10-Q) - 2025-Q3, Page: 25Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7Remitly Global, Inc. (10-Q) - 2025-Q3, Page: 25Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8Remitly Global, Inc. (10-Q) - 2023-Q3, Page: 47Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai

9. What level of active customer growth is implied by Remitly's official FY2026 revenue guidance when analyzed against historical ARPU trends?

FY2026 Revenue Guidance$1.978 billion to $1.988 billion (21% to 22% YoY growth) [1][2]
Q2 2026 Active Customer Growth20% year-over-year [2]
Projected Send Volume per Customer Growth (remainder 2026)mid to high single digits range [3][2]
Remitly projects strong revenue growth, surpassing active customer expansion, for fiscal year 2026. The company's official revenue guidance anticipates between $1.978 billion and $1.988 billion for the year, representing a 21% to 22% year-over-year increase [1][2]. This forecast, based on explicit Q3 2026 guidance, indicates that revenue growth is expected to modestly exceed active customer growth for the fiscal year [2].
Growth in high-value customers and transaction sizes drives anticipated ARPU gains. In Q2 2026, Remitly reported a 20% year-over-year increase in both active customers and revenue [2]. The company attributes its positive revenue and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) trends to a growing proportion of "high-value senders and business customers" and larger average transaction sizes [3][2]. Management further expects the send volume per active customer to rise in the "mid to high single digits range" through the remainder of 2026, reinforcing the expectation for revenue growth to outpace active customer growth [3][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and...ir.remitly.com
  2. 2Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  3. 3Remitly Global (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

10. What macroeconomic trends in key remittance corridors like US-Mexico and US-Philippines could impact Remitly's customer growth in H2 2026?

US-Mexico Remittance Growth H1 20263.1% year-over-year increase [1][2]
US-Philippines Remittance Growth Early 2026Slowed to a four-year low of approximately 2% [3][4]
Impact of 2026 US Regulations on RemitlyMinimal material impact [5][6]
Mexico's remittances saw a strong rebound in early 2026. This trend aligns with broader macroeconomic expectations for key remittance corridors in H2 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Remittances to Mexico in the US-Mexico corridor increased by 3.1% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. This growth occurred despite a U.S. executive order designed to restrict financial access for undocumented migrants [1][2].
Philippines remittances faced slowdowns but anticipate H2 2026 recovery. In the US-Philippines corridor, remittance growth decelerated to a four-year low of approximately 2% in early 2026. This slowdown was primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties, specifically the Middle East conflict [3][4]. However, a partial recovery for remittances is projected for the second half of 2026, following recent de-escalation efforts in the region [3][4].
New U.S. remittance regulations have minimally impacted Remitly's digital model. Proposed 2026 U.S. regulations, which specifically target non-digital remittance funding methods, have had negligible material impact on Remitly's inherently digital-first business model [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Mexico | Through June, remittances mark 5 months of growth | BBVA Researchbbvaresearch.com
  2. 2Mexico's remittances rebound in first half of 2026mexiconewsdaily.com
  3. 3OFW Remittances 2026: Complete Data Report — Monthly Trends & Outlookworldngayon.com
  4. 4Maybank forecasts 2.8% growth in OFW remittances to $36.5 billion by 2026 despite risks | Economyph.headtopics.com
  5. 5The U.S. Started Taxing Remittances. Mexico's Money Barely Flinched. | Remit-Scoutremit-scout.com
  6. 6Remitly Global, Inc. quarterly report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:RELY) | MetaTradermetatrader.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Remitly reached 10.2 million active customers in Q2 2026, marking a 20% year-over-year increase and the first time surpassing the 10 million milestone [1]. For fiscal year 2026, the company raised its outlook to revenue of $1.978 billion to $1.988 billion, representing 21%–22% growth, and Adjusted EBITDA of $410 million to $415 million [2][3]. Bullish catalysts include the transition toward a broader cross-border finance platform, the expansion of 'Growth Accelerators' such as the Remitly Global Card and business payments, and strong operating leverage [4][5]. For Q3 2026, Remitly expects revenue of $505 million to $507 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $92 million to $94 million [2].
Potential bearish risks include execution challenges with new products, possible margin strain from high-value user mix shifts, and sensitivity to currency fluctuations in key corridors such as India [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 27, 2027
  • Closes: May 27, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  2. 2Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - August 5, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  3. 3Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlook | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  4. 4Remitly Global (RELY) Stock Jumps On Margin Breakthrough And Profit Surge - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  5. 5Remitly forecasts $1.978B-$1.988B 2026 revenue while expanding the Remitly Global Card (NASDAQ:RELY) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com