Short Answer

Remitly's active customers in Q1 2027 are unlikely to exceed 10.5 million, given decelerating growth through 2026 and management's forecast for slowing growth in 2027. The market prices active customers above 10.5 million at 0.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Q1 2027 active customers likely below 10.5 million due to decelerating growth. Management expects slowing 2027 growth; Wise outpaced Remitly in H2 2026. * Remitly prioritizes higher-value transactions over raw customer count expansion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 10.5 million 0.0% 0.4% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 10.8 million 0.0% 0.3% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 11 million 0.0% 0.2% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 11.2 million 0.0% 0.1% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 11.4 million 0.0% 0.1% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

Remitly's active customer growth decelerated through 2026, lowering Q1 2027 expectations. Active customers increased 20% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to 9.6 million [1][2], and 20% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to 10.2 million (revised from 10.1 million) [1][3]. By Q3 2026, year-over-year growth slowed to 17%, reaching 10.3 million active customers [4][5][6]. This trend suggests a deceleration in user acquisition heading into 2027 [1][3][6][2]. Kalshi prediction markets for Remitly active customers in May 2027 assign less than a 1% probability of exceeding 10.5 million, 10.8 million, or 11 million, implying Q1 2027 active customers are expected below 10.5 million [7].
Management expects slower 2027 revenue growth, despite share repurchases and strong transaction metrics. The company projects 2027 revenue growth at the lower end of the high teens, approximately 15-17%, as the 1% U.S. cash remittance tax tailwind laps [4]. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to remain broadly flat with 2026 levels [4]. In November 2026, Remitly's board increased its share repurchase authorization from $200 million to $500 million, indicating confidence in financial position and future growth [5]. Q1 2027 analyst estimates project revenue at $540 million, representing 19.25% year-over-year growth, with EPS of $0.39, based on 8 analyst coverings [8][9]. Send volume per active customer reached a record over $2,350 in Q3 2026, a 7% year-over-year increase, driven by higher average transaction sizes and an increased mix of business and large transfers [10][3][11]. Remitly Business expanded to 30,000 users in Q3 2026, up from 25,000 in Q2 2026, with the total addressable market for business payments estimated over $40 trillion [4][3].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Remitly Global, Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026sec.gov
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record First Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookir.remitly.com
  3. 3Presentationir.remitly.com
  4. 4Remitly's Profit Surge And Fourth Guidance Raise Collide With Cooling User Growth And A Slower FY27 Outlookfinviz.com
  5. 5Remitly Reports Record Third Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  6. 6rely-20260930sec.gov
  7. 7Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  8. 8Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  9. 9Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) earnings calendar and key datesplutux.ai
  10. 10Remitly Global, Inc. Earnings Call Transcripts — RELY | Roic AIroic.ai
  11. 11Remitly Global Earnings Call Shows Record Growthtipranks.com

2. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks whether Remitly's active customer count for Q3 2026 will exceed specified thresholds. A "Yes" resolution is triggered if the active customer count is strictly above the threshold for the respective contract (e.g., 10.5 million), while "No" resolves if it is at or below that threshold. Trading for the market concludes on May 5, 4:00 PM EDT, and no special settlement conditions beyond the numerical thresholds are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 10.5 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 10.8 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 11 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 11.2 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 11.4 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 11.6 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 11.8 million $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Remitly's active customer growth decelerated to 17% year-over-year in Q3 2026, down from 20% in Q1 and Q2 2026, with management guiding for 2027 revenue growth at the lower end of the high-teens range due to a tough comparable [1]. A prediction market for Q1 2027 active customers shows less than 1% probability for exceeding 10.5 million, 10.8 million, or 11 million, implying expectations below 10.5 million [2]. Conversely, analysts rate Remitly a "Strong Buy" [3], and discussions highlight positive trends like record net dollar retention and higher send volume per active customer [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Remitly's Profit Surge And Fourth Guidance Raise Collide With Cooling User Growth And A Slower FY27 Outlookfinviz.com
  2. 2Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  3. 3Remitly earnings in focus: Can user growth sustain momentum? By Investing.cominvesting.com
  4. 4Remitly Global Inc (RELY) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Regurufocus.com

3. What do the sequential growth trends from Q1-Q3 2026 imply for Remitly's projected active customers in Q1 2027?

Q3 2026 Active Customers10.3M (up 17% YoY) [1][2][3][4][5]
Q1-Q2 2026 Sequential Customer Growthapproximately 500K [1][2][6][7][8]
Q2-Q3 2026 Sequential Customer Growthapproximately 200K [1][2][6][7][8]
Remitly's customer growth slowed sequentially during 2026, impacting future projections. The company experienced a deceleration in active customer growth from Q1 to Q3 2026, adding approximately 500,000 customers sequentially between Q1 and Q2, reaching 10.1 million total active customers, and then approximately 200,000 customers between Q2 and Q3, bringing the total to 10.3 million [1][2][6][7][8]. This sequential slowdown was mirrored by a deceleration in year-over-year growth, which dropped from 20% in Q1 and Q2 to 17% in Q3 2026 [1][2][6][7][8][3][4][5]. This trend, along with the conclusion of the 1% U.S. cash remittance tax tailwind, implies that Q1 2027 year-over-year growth will likely be in the low-to-mid teens, leading to an estimated 10.5-11.0 million active customers [4][5][9].
Market predictions diverge from management's outlook, despite strategic investments. The Kalshi prediction market, for instance, prices strikes for Q1 2027 active customers above 10.5 million, 10.8 million, and 11 million at less than 1% for 'Yes', suggesting a market expectation of active customers below 10.5 million for that quarter [10][11]. In contrast, management projects revenue growth in the lower end of high teens for 2027, with adjusted EBITDA margin broadly flat compared to 2026, and is actively investing in Q4 2026 marketing efforts to support 2027 growth [7][4][5]. New growth initiatives include Remitly Business, which saw its customer base increase from 25,000 in Q2 2026 to over 30,000 in Q3 2026 [1][3][4].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Presentationir.remitly.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Third Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Remitly Global Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinstrategist.com
  4. 4Remitly's Profit Surge And Fourth Guidance Raise Collide With Cooling User Growth And A Slower FY27 Outlookfinviz.com
  5. 5Remitly (RELY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Remitly Reports Record First Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookir.remitly.com
  7. 7Remitly Global, Inc. Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026sec.gov
  8. 8Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookir.remitly.com
  9. 9Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  11. 11Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com

4. How could the expansion of Remitly Business and its higher-value transactions affect the overall active customer count in Q1 2027?

Send volume per active customer (Q3 2026)over $2,350 [1][2][3]
Remitly Business customers (Q3 2026)over 30,000 [2][4][5]
Q1 2027 Quarterly Active Users (market expectation)below 10.5 million [6]
Remitly prioritizes high-value transactions and business expansion over raw customer count growth. Remitly's projected growth for Q1 2027 is anticipated to be driven primarily by the expansion of Remitly Business and an increase in higher-value transactions, leading to growth in send volume, revenue, and value per customer, rather than a proportional increase in the total active customer count [1][7][8][9][3]. Management has indicated a strategic focus on the quality of quarterly active users (QAU) over maximizing the raw QAU number [3]. This approach aligns with prior guidance for Q1 2026, which stated that send volume growth would exceed revenue growth, and revenue growth would surpass active customer growth, a pattern expected to continue into Q1 2027 due to momentum from high-amount senders and businesses [8][9].
High-value senders and business clients significantly boost volume, with limited customer growth. High-value senders, defined as those completing transactions of $5,000 or more since Q1 2026, are significant contributors, generating substantially more value per customer compared to Core Senders, although they represent a smaller incremental addition to the total customer count [10][1][2]. Remitly Business has seen considerable growth, surpassing 30,000 business customers by Q3 2026, with over 80% of customers added to the business platform in Q2 2026 being new to Remitly [2][4][5]. This strategic shift towards high-value senders and business clients has resulted in a record send volume per active customer of over $2,350 in Q3 2026 [1][2][3]. Market predictions, such as a Kalshi prediction market, reinforce this trend, showing a less than 1% probability for Remitly active customers in Q1 2027 to exceed 10.5 million, 10.8 million, or 11 million, implying market expectations for Q1 2027 QAU to be below 10.5 million [6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Q1 2026 Remitly Global Inc Earnings Call on May 06, 2026 / 9:00PMir.remitly.com
  2. 2Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Remitly Global Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinstrategist.com
  4. 4remitlyq2earningspresentsec.gov
  5. 5Earnings call transcript: Remitly tops Q2 2026 estimates and jumps after hours By Investing.cominvesting.com
  6. 6Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  7. 7Remitly (RELY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8Remitly (RELY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  9. 9Remitly (RELY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Investor Presentationir.remitly.com

5. How did Remitly's active customer growth rate in H2 2026 compare to that of its key competitor, Wise?

Remitly Q3 2026 Active Customer Growth17% YoY [1][2][3][4]
Wise H2 2026 Active Customer Growth20-21% YoY [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]
Wise Q2 FY27 Active Customers12.503 million [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]
Wise outpaced Remitly in active customer growth during H2 2026. In Q3 2026, Remitly reported a 17% year-over-year (YoY) increase in active customers, which was 3 to 4 percentage points lower than Wise's consistent 20-21% YoY growth recorded during the same calendar period [1][2][5][6][7][13][10]. This indicates Wise was expanding its customer base at a faster rate.
Wise maintained a consistent and strong growth rate in H2 2026. Wise demonstrated stable active customer growth at 20-21% YoY throughout the second half of 2026. Its active customer base grew by 21% YoY, reaching 11.863 million by June 30, 2026 (Q1 FY27), and subsequently increased by 20% YoY to 12.503 million by September 30, 2026 (Q2 FY27) [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].
Remitly's customer growth decelerated in H2 2026 due to several factors. In contrast, Remitly's quarterly active customer growth decelerated during H2 2026. In Q3 2026, active customers increased by 17% YoY, reaching 10.343 million, a decrease from the 20% YoY growth observed in Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This slowdown was attributed to multiple factors, including a Reserve Bank of India FX mobilization scheme, the potential pull-forward of large transfers, and a challenging comparison period from the initial implementation of the 1% U.S. cash remittance tax [14][13].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Remitly Reports Record Third Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  2. 2rely-20260930sec.gov
  3. 3Presentationir.remitly.com
  4. 4remitlyq2earningspresentsec.gov
  5. 5Wise Group plc reports Q2 FY27 Results | Thu, 10/15/2026 - 16:01owners.wise.com
  6. 6Form 6-K for Wise Group PLC filed 07/16/2026owners.wise.com
  7. 7EX-99.1sec.gov
  8. 8Wise Group’s Q1 FY27 Results Highlight Rapid Growth and Lower Fees in Global Money Transfers - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  9. 9Wise Group (LON:WISE) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  10. 10Earnings call transcript: Wise posts strong Q2 2027 growth as stock slips 1.4% By Investing.cominvesting.com
  11. 11Wise Group plc Delivers Double-Digit Growth in Q2 FY27 as Global Money Network Scalestipranks.com
  12. 12Wise earnings lift FY27 revenue growth outlook to upper halftrendandticker.com
  13. 13Remitly's Profit Surge And Fourth Guidance Raise Collide With Cooling User Growth And A Slower FY27 Outlookfinviz.com
  14. 14Remitly (RELY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

6. What range of active customer counts for Q1 2027 is implied by consensus analyst revenue forecasts and recent trends in send volume per customer?

Implied Q1 2027 Active Customers10.5 million to 11.5 million [1][2][3][4]
Q1 2027 Consensus Revenue Estimate$539.97 million [1][3]
Q3 2026 Active Customers10.3 million (+17% YoY) [5][6][7][4]
Q1 2027 active customers are projected to be between 10.5 million and 11.5 million. This projection is derived from a consensus Q1 2027 revenue estimate of approximately $540 million, an assumed take rate ranging from 2.05% to 2.10%, and a projected send volume per customer of $2,450 to $2,550 [1][2][3][4]. The Q1 2027 consensus revenue estimate itself stands at $539.97 million, representing approximately 19.25% year-over-year growth from Q1 2026's $452.8 million [1][3]. Furthermore, the full year 2027 consensus revenue is forecast at $2.37 billion, indicating approximately 19.4% year-over-year growth [1][2][8].
Active customer growth has decelerated despite a boost from a new federal tax. Active customer growth reached 10.3 million active customers in Q3 2026, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, which is a deceleration compared to the 20% growth observed in prior quarters of 2026 [5][6][7][4]. This slowdown is attributed to a larger customer base and a strategic shift towards higher-value senders [5][6][7][4]. Concurrently, send volume per active customer growth is moderating, moving from double-digit to mid-single-digit ranges, with Q3 2026 reporting $2,350 per customer, a 7% year-over-year increase [2][9][10][11]. However, a U.S. federal 1% tax on physical cash remittances, implemented in 2026, is encouraging customers to switch from traditional cash-based transfers to digital platforms, thereby supporting continued momentum in active user growth [12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Remitly (RELY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3RELY Stock — Remitly Global, Inc.: Analyst Estimates - Equiblesequibles.com
  4. 4Remitly Reports Record Third Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  5. 5Remitly Reports Record First Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookir.remitly.com
  6. 6Presentationir.remitly.com
  7. 7Remitly Reports Record Second Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookir.remitly.com
  8. 8Remitly Global (RELY) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  9. 9Earnings call transcript: Remitly tops Q2 2026 estimates and jumps after hours By Investing.cominvesting.com
  10. 10Remitly (RELY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  11. 11Remitly (RELY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  12. 12Remitly earnings in focus: Can user growth sustain momentum? By Investing.cominvesting.com
  13. 13Remitly earnings in focus: Can user growth sustain momentum? By Investing.comuk.investing.com

7. How does Remitly's upsized $500M share repurchase program conflict with its guidance for slowing growth in FY27?

Share Repurchase Program$500 million [1][2][3]
FY27 Revenue Growth Guidance15-17% [4][1][5]
Q3 2026 Active Customer Growth17% year-over-year [4][6][5][7][8][9]
Remitly's large buyback conflicts with its slowing growth projections. The company's decision to upsize its share repurchase program to $500 million appears to conflict with its guidance for slowing growth in fiscal year 2027 [4][1][10]. This substantial capital allocation commits funds to buybacks rather than to growth initiatives, even as the company faces decelerating active customer growth and a projected slowdown in FY27 revenue growth [4][1][10]. Management's focus on per-share earnings is evident through its adoption of diluted EPS as a key metric and its identification of share repurchases as the top use of free cash flow after organic investment and customer prefunding, which the buyback directly supports [1][11][12][13].
Revenue and customer growth are projected to significantly decelerate. Remitly's guidance for FY27 revenue growth is set at the lower end of the high-teens range, approximately 15-17%, marking a notable deceleration from FY26's 22% growth [4][1][5]. This anticipated slowdown is largely attributed to the lapping of a 1% U.S. cash remittance tax tailwind that previously boosted digital conversion in 2025-2026 [4][1][5]. Furthermore, quarterly active customer growth has consistently decelerated throughout 2026, falling from 20% year-over-year in Q1 to 17% year-over-year in Q3, indicating weakening customer acquisition momentum as the company approaches FY27 [4][6][5][7][8][9]. Market expectations for active customers in Q1 2027, as reflected by the Kalshi prediction market, are reportedly below 10.5 million [14][15].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Remitly Global Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinstrategist.com
  2. 2Remitly Global Announces Board Increases Buyb...benzinga.com
  3. 3rely-20260930sec.gov
  4. 4Remitly's Profit Surge And Fourth Guidance Raise Collide With Cooling User Growth And A Slower FY27 Outlookfinviz.com
  5. 5Remitly (RELY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Presentationir.remitly.com
  7. 7Remitly Reports Record Third Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlook | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  8. 8Remitly Reports Record First Quarter Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Outlookir.remitly.com
  9. 9Remitly (RELY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Remitly Cash Flow & Margins — From −$6M FCF to a $400M Machine | MajorHoldersmajorholders.com
  11. 11Remitly (RELY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  12. 12Q4 2025 Remitly Global Inc Earnings Call on February 18, 2026 / 10:00PMir.remitly.com
  13. 13Remitly (Investor Day) December 9, 2025ir.remitly.com
  14. 14Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  15. 15Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com

8. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Recent performance metrics indicate a deceleration in core growth. Remitly's Q3 2026 active customers grew 17% year-over-year, a slowdown from 20% in prior quarters, while send volume growth decelerated to 25% from 37% in Q1 2026 [1][2][3]. Analysts pressed management twice on this slowdown during the earnings call [1][2][3]. Large transfer growth fell to 25% due to the Reserve Bank of India FX mobilization scheme [1][2][3]. Kalshi prediction markets indicate less than 1% probability of Remitly active customers exceeding 10.5 million, 10.8 million, or 11 million for the May 2027 quarter (Q2 2027) [4]. The company's Q1 2027 earnings are expected March 30, 2027, with one analyst forecasting $0.25 EPS and $540.58M revenue, and MarketScreener projecting $0.20 EPS and $537M revenue [5][6].
Despite near-term growth concerns, strategic actions and longer-term targets provide potential upside. Remitly's board increased its share repurchase authorization from $200 million to $500 million in November 2026, following $14.4 million (612,000 shares) in buybacks recorded in Q3 2026 [2][3]. The Remitly Business segment reached over 30,000 users in Q3 2026, with large transfers outside India growing 80% year-over-year [1][3]. Newer businesses are on track to exceed 10% of total revenue by 2028 [1][3]. While the 2027 outlook anticipates revenue growth in the high teens with adjusted EBITDA margins broadly in line with 2026, the medium-term 2028 outlook targets $2.6B-$3.0B in revenue and 20-22% adjusted EBITDA margins [1][3][7][8]. All 10 analysts covering the stock maintain a Strong Buy rating, with a consensus price target of $32.11, implying 27-49% upside from current levels near $25.38 [9][10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 02, 2027
  • Closes: September 02, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Remitly's Profit Surge And Fourth Guidance Raise Collide With Cooling User Growth And A Slower FY27 Outlookfinviz.com
  2. 2Remitly Reports Record Third Quarter Results and Raisesglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Remitly Global Inc (RELY) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Regurufocus.com
  4. 4Remitly active customers next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  5. 5Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) earnings calendar and key datesplutux.ai
  6. 6Remitly Global, Inc.: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | RELY | US75960P1049 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  7. 7Remitly Global Inc (RELY) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
  8. 8final4q25earningsdecksec.gov
  9. 9Remitly earnings in focus: Can user growth sustain momentum? By Investing.cominvesting.com
  10. 10Remitly Global (RELY) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  11. 11RELY Stock Forecast 2026-2027 - Remitly Global, Inc. Price Targets & Predictionstickernerd.com