Know before you bet. One Trust Score, 0 to 100, on every open Kalshi and Polymarket market. Built from order books, price history, and settlement rules. Weighted in the open. Versioned forever.
How it's scored
Can anyone rig it? Can you trade it?
Integrity. 80% of the score.
Does someone control the outcome? Does a small circle know first? Will it settle the way the rules say? Ten screens run on every market. One flag becomes a sentence in your report, not a footnote.
Integrity sets the ceiling. No amount of liquidity buys back a market someone else controls.
See the full methodologyTrade quality. 20% of the score.
A fair market you can't exit is still a trap. We measure the depth at your fill price, whether moves carry real volume, and whether the rules are clear enough to size against.
Trade quality can lower a score. It can never cap one.
See the full methodologyTrading strategies
Six traders. Six rules. Three steps each.
The news trader
Sort your watchlist by Trust Score. If Info fairness is flagged, you're already late. Size by band and skip High Risk.
Screen Info fairnessThe spread trader
Stick to Deep or Tradeable liquidity. Unconfirmed moves will run you over, and a severe flag means walk away.
Screen Trade qualityThe longshot buyer
Buy tails only where integrity holds, and read the rules before you size. Big size with no tape behind it? Ask why.
Screen Market integrityThe cross-venue trader
Compare scores across venues. The timing flag tells you who leads, so check liquidity on the leg you'll exit.
Compare venuesThe systematic trader
Pull scores by API or MCP, gate entries on the label and the caps that fired, and re-pull every hour.
Pull the APIThe desk analyst
Read the verdict and the primary risk, export with the disclosure included, and link the methodology.
Read the methodologyLive markets
Markets from across the scale, as of the last computation.
81% of substantive prints on KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.33 share one size (100 contracts)
Computed Oct 2, 2026 View report
Order book is critically thin.
Computed Oct 2, 2026 View report
Order book is critically thin.
Computed Oct 2, 2026 View report
How it stays honest
Three promises every score keeps.
Missing data drops out of the weights and lowers stated confidence.
A pillar with no applicable screen is labeled a structural prior on the card.
Scored once, server-side. The report, the exports, and this page show the same payload.
A 0 to 100 Trust Score on every open Kalshi and Polymarket market. It measures whether a prediction market can be rigged and whether you can trade it, across 4 pillars: market integrity, info fairness, resolution quality, trade quality.
4 pillar scores, blended by published weights, then capped. Market integrity 30% · Info fairness 30% · Resolution quality 20% · Trade quality 20%. Market integrity, Info fairness, or Resolution quality below 30 caps the total near 40–50. A severe activity flag caps the total at 30. Trade quality lowers the blend but never caps it.
High Risk. The scale: 0–29 Avoid, 30–49 High Risk, 50–69 Caution, 70–84 Good, 85–100 Strong. The report names the pillar and the screen responsible.
It detects the conditions and the footprints. Whether a small group could know first. Whether price moved before the news. Whether a longshot flipped ahead of a scheduled reveal. It describes contracts, not people, and never certifies a market clean.
Because integrity outweighs convenience. Trade quality is 20% of the score and never caps it. A market whose subject controls the outcome stays capped no matter how deep the book.
Every open market recomputes on a rolling 24-hour cycle, oldest first. Every report shows its timestamp and marks itself stale after 24 hours.
Same pillars, same weights, same caps. Fees, tick sizes, and settlement mechanics enter through the measurements, so the same event can score differently on each venue.
No. It is research on observable market risk, published for traders. Not investment advice. Not a compliance product.
Every open Kalshi and Polymarket market, scored and explained.
