The Trust Index
One 0–100 answer to the question every prediction-market trader asks first: how much should I trust this market? Computed from order books, price history, settlement rules, and the market's information structure — never from vibes.
The scale
Every scored event gets a Trust Score from 0 to 100, read on five bands. The score is conservative by design: a market has to earn its way up.
Four questions, one number
The score blends four measured pillars. Three of them — the safety questions — form the Integrity axis (80% of the score); the fourth is the Trade quality axis (20%). Safety outweighs convenience on purpose: a market you can trade easily but can't trust is the worst kind.
Can someone cause or influence the outcome they're trading?
Can a small group know the outcome materially early?
Will settlement follow clean, objective rules?
Can you actually get in and out near the screen price?
Blend, then cap
The pillars are blended by weight — and then hard caps apply. A great average can't paper over a disqualifying weakness:
- Market integrity, Info fairness, or Resolution quality below 30 caps the total near 40–50.
- A severe activity flag caps the total at 30. Trade quality lowers the blend but never caps it.
Screens, in plain language
Behind the Integrity pillars run individual screens — could a small group know this outcome early, can a participant trade a result they control, did prices move before the news, did one trade dominate the tape. Each screen reports in desk language, never pass/fail:
Screens that don't apply to a market's type say so, and screens whose data source isn't connected yet are reported as awaiting data — never silently counted as clean.
The honesty rules
- We never guess. Missing data drops out of the weights and lowers stated confidence.
- Priors say so. A pillar with no applicable screen is labeled a structural prior on the card.
- One computation. Scored once, server-side. The report, the exports, and this page show the same payload.
The Trust Index appears on every Octagon market report where it can be computed.
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