Short Answer

Palantir is likely to have over 1150 total customers by Q1 2027, as consistent quarterly net customer additions suggest the market may be overestimating the deceleration in customer acquisition. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's repricing on November 4, 2026, appears driven by sentiment in related prediction markets following Palantir's latest earnings data. On the same day, pricing on Kalshi implied a median forecast of 1,150-1,175 customers for Q1 2027 and assigned a 70% probability to the count exceeding 1,150. This external pricing provides a strong anchor, suggesting the 1,125 customer threshold for this specific market is highly probable.
The forecast is grounded in Palantir's reported Q3 2026 results, which established a base of 1,090 customers and a 20% year-over-year growth rate. A simple extrapolation of recent growth trends through the resolution date places the expected customer count above the 1,125 level. The entire price move occurred on a single traded contract, which indicates the shift reflects a specific actor's conviction based on these fundamental data points rather than a change in broad market consensus.
  • Palantir's consistent quarterly customer additions support total customers Above 1150.
  • Maintaining recent additions pace projects 1,172-1,196 total customers in Q1 2027.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 1150 99.0% 98.0% Consistent net customer additions and robust financial performance support continued customer growth.
Above 1125 0.0% 98.5% Consistent customer additions and robust financials suggest continued customer acquisition into Q1 2027.
Above 1175 0.0% 12.0% Maintaining recent customer addition pace projects total customers reaching 1,172-1,196 by Q1 2027.
Above 1200 0.0% 5.0% Robust financials and consistent additions suggest the market may overestimate acquisition deceleration.
Above 1225 0.0% 1.0% Robust financials and consistent additions suggest the market may overestimate acquisition deceleration.

Current Context

Prediction markets indicate 1,150-1,175 customers for Q1 2027. As of November 4, 2026, Kalshi prices 'Above 1150 total customers in Q1 2027' at 70% and 'Above 1250' at 50%, implying a market-implied median of approximately 1,150–1,175 customers for Palantir's Q1 2027 (March 31, 2027) customer count [1]. Palantir reported 1,090 total customers as of September 30, 2026 (Q3 2026), a 20% year-over-year increase from 911 in September 2025 [2][3][4]. U.S. commercial customers reached 686, up 29% year-over-year, and total commercial customers reached 904, up from 742 [2][3][4]. Customer count year-over-year growth has decelerated over the last four quarters, from 44.8% in September 2025 to 19.6% in September 2026, with net additions holding between 41 and 53 per quarter [2].
Strong Q3 2026 financial results accompanied increased guidance. Q3 2026 revenue reached $2.313 billion, marking 96% year-over-year growth [5][3]. U.S. commercial revenue, at $984 million, surpassed U.S. government revenue ($953 million) for the first time in company history, growing 148% year-over-year [5][3]. The company achieved a 62% adjusted operating margin, $1.128 billion in GAAP net income (49% margin), and $1.216 billion in adjusted free cash flow (53% margin) [5][3]. Palantir raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.530–$8.534 billion, representing approximately 91% growth, and Q4 2026 revenue guidance to $2.649–$2.653 billion [3]. Net dollar retention stood at 165% in Q3 2026, an 800 basis point increase from the prior quarter [3]. Revenue per customer rose 56% to $6.69 million on a trailing twelve-month basis [2]. Deal activity in Q3 2026 included 212 deals of at least $1 million, 107 deals of at least $5 million (50.5% of $1M+ deals), and 64 deals of at least $10 million [2][3]. Remaining deal value totaled $13.4 billion (55% YoY growth) and remaining performance obligations (RPO) were $4.9 billion (88% YoY growth) [2][3]. The top 20 customers averaged $124 million in trailing 12-month revenue as of June 2026, 35 times the average of the other 1,029 customers (~$3.6 million each) [2]. The top 20's share of trailing revenue declined from 45.4% to 40.3% [2].
Analyst sentiment mixed despite robust financials; key dates approach. Wall Street analyst price targets post-Q3 2026 earnings range from $200 (William Blair) to $262 (JPMorgan), with most issuing Buy/Overweight ratings [5][6][7]. Conversely, Michael Burry remains a prominent bear, arguing the stock is worth less than $1, and RBC maintains a $90 target due to valuation concerns [5][6][7]. Q4 2026 earnings are expected around February 1–17, 2027, and Q1 2027 earnings around May 3–10, 2027, though these dates are unconfirmed [8][9]. The Kalshi prediction market for Q1 2027 total customers is scheduled to resolve on March 3, 2027 [1]. A separate Kalshi market for 'Palantir total customer count in 2026' priced 'Above 1100' at 99% as of November 3, 2026, and 'Above 1160' at 40%, with resolution scheduled for March 31, 2028 [10]. The Q3 2026 customer count market resolved at 1,090 customers [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Palantir's Top 20 Customers Average $124M, 35x the Rest - FourWeekMBAfourweekmba.com
  3. 3Palantir (PLTR) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Palantir_ Q3_2026-Investor-Presentation-v3investors.palantir.com
  5. 5Palantir is dropping on earnings. Wall Street analysts remain bullishcnbc.com
  6. 6Palantir Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Alex Karp Say?finance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Michael Burry, the investor from <em>The Big Short</em>, believes that Palantir shares should be worth $1—99% less than their market value—but Wall Street analysts disagree with him. – Oninvesten.oninvest.com
  8. 8Palantir Earnings Date, Report, Conference Call, Forecasted Dates (PLTR)wallstreethorizon.com
  9. 9Palantir Technologies Stock Price | Stock Quote, News, and History | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  10. 10Palantir total customer count in 2026 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution for this market is triggered if Palantir's total customer count for the next quarter is above the specific number stated in the contract (e.g., above 1150); otherwise, a "No" resolution occurs. Trading for this market ends on May 3, at 4:00 PM EDT, with payouts expected by the maximum date of August 31, 2027. Settlement is based on Palantir's reported total customers for the next quarter, with no additional special conditions explicitly stated on the page.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1150 $0.99 $0.59 99%
Above 1125 $0.99 $0.99 0%
Above 1175 $0.99 $0.99 0%
Above 1200 $0.99 $0.99 0%
Above 1225 $0.99 $0.99 0%
Above 1250 $0.99 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets, as of November 4, 2026, price Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 at a 70% probability for 'Above 1150', with 'Above 1175' and higher counts showing 50% probabilities [1]. This follows Palantir's reported 1,007 total customers in Q1 2026, a 31% year-over-year increase [2]. Strong Q3 2026 revenue growth of 96% year-over-year, 212 deals closed, and positive social media sentiment after Q3 2026 earnings, reported November 2, 2026, may indicate continued customer expansion [3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/palantir-of-customers-above-in-q1polymarket.com
  3. 3Palantir's AI demand is accelerating, but its backlog tells a...proactiveinvestors.com
  4. 4‘Captain Of The Football Team’: Alex Karp Says Palantir’s AI Appeal Is Surgingstocktwits.com
  5. 5Palantir (PLTR) stock sentiment on Reddit and X · Quantralquantral.com

4. What customer addition figure in Palantir's Q4 2026 earnings report would be a key catalyst for the Q1 2027 forecast?

Q2 2026 Total Customers1,049 (June 30, 2026) [1]
Q4 2026 Earnings ReportEarly February 2027 (Key Catalyst for Q1 2027 forecast) [2]
Q1 2027 Customer Forecast ProbabilityAbove 1150 at 70% (as of November 4, 2026) [3]
Palantir's Q4 2026 earnings will drive Q1 2027 customer forecasts. The Q4 2026 earnings report, anticipated in early February 2027, has been identified as the primary catalyst influencing the Q1 2027 total customer forecast within the prediction market [2]. As a baseline, Palantir reported a total of 1,049 customers as of June 30, 2026, marking the end of Q2 2026 [1].
Prediction markets show high probability for Palantir exceeding 1150 customers. An analysis of the Kalshi prediction market for 'Palantir total customers in Q1 2027', conducted on November 4, 2026, indicates a 70% probability that the customer count will be 'Above 1150' [3]. Additionally, other thresholds including 'Above 1250', 'Above 1225', 'Above 1200', 'Above 1175', and 'Above 1125' are each assigned a 50% probability in the same market [3][4].
Exact Q4 customer additions are currently undeterminable due to data gaps. Despite these predictive market forecasts, the precise number of customer additions in Q4 2026 that would be necessary to align with the projected Q1 2027 thresholds cannot be determined from the available information. This limitation stems from the absence of the Q3 2026 customer total.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Will Palantir Smash Q2 Earnings Tonight After the Market...247wallst.com
  2. 2Palantir Earnings Date: Q3 2026 Time and Estimatescmelitegroup.com
  3. 3Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4Tech Prediction Markets & Odds - Page 23 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com

5. What do leading indicators from Q3 2026, like RPO and large deal momentum, imply for the bull case on customer growth?

Q3 2026 Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)$4.9 billion [1][2]
Q3 2026 Deals of at least $10 million64 deals [2][1]
Q3 2026 Net Dollar Retention165% [1][3]
Palantir demonstrated strong new customer acquisition, particularly in its commercial sector. In Q3 2026, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $4.9 billion, an 88% year-over-year increase primarily from the Commercial business [1][2]. The company secured 212 deals valued at $1 million or more, with 64 of these deals exceeding $10 million [2][1]. This activity expanded the total customer base to 1,090, representing a 20% year-over-year increase, while US commercial customers specifically grew 29% year-over-year to 686 [4][3][1].
Expansion within existing clients and optimistic guidance support future growth. Palantir's Net Dollar Retention was 165% in Q3 2026, an 800 basis point increase from the previous quarter, highlighting successful growth within its client base [1][3]. The average revenue from its top 20 customers over the trailing 12 months rose by 76% year-over-year, reaching $146 million per customer [5][1][6][4]. For the future, Palantir has increased its FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.530 billion-$8.534 billion and its Q4 2026 revenue guidance to $2.649 billion-$2.653 billion, signaling sustained customer acquisition into Q1 2027 [1][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Palantir Q3 earnings: revenue rises 96% to $2.31Bstocktitan.net
  3. 3Palantir Technologies Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Analysislinkedin.com
  4. 4Palantir Q3 2026 revenue jumps 96% to $2.31Bstocktitan.net
  5. 5Palantir Q3 2026 earnings conference callmoomoo.com
  6. 6Palantir (PLTR) Q3 Earnings: EPS Beat & Valuation Debatetrendspider.com

6. How does Palantir's customer growth trajectory compare to enterprise software peers like Snowflake and Datadog?

Palantir Commercial Customers1,007 (trailing 12 months ended March 31, 2026) [1]
Snowflake Total Customers14,554 (Q2 FY2027 ended July 31, 2026) [2]
Datadog Total Customers33,400 (end of Q2 2026) [3]
Palantir's customer base is smaller but expanding rapidly, particularly within its US commercial sector. The company reported 1,007 commercial customers for the trailing 12 months ended March 31, 2026, representing a 31% year-over-year increase [1]. Its US commercial customer count experienced an even more significant jump of over 65% year-over-year, indicating strong land-and-expand dynamics [4]. Despite having a smaller customer count, Palantir's revenue growth of approximately 48% year-over-year significantly surpasses that of its enterprise software peers, Snowflake and Datadog [4].
In contrast, enterprise software companies like Snowflake and Datadog possess considerably larger customer bases. Snowflake concluded Q2 FY2027 with 14,554 total customers, marking a 32% year-over-year increase, adding 692 net new customers in that quarter alone [2]. Its customer growth is notably influenced by AI adoption, with over 9,100 accounts utilizing Snowflake's AI features [5][2]. Datadog recorded approximately 33,400 customers by the end of Q2 2026 [3]. A segment of about 4,860 of these customers generated $100K+ in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in Q3 2026, a 20% year-over-year increase for that high-value segment [3][6]. Both Snowflake and Datadog's customer expansions are supported by the growing adoption of AI-native enterprise solutions [5][3][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings report 2026cnbc.com
  2. 2Snowflake (SNOW) Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call: Product Revenue Growth Accelerates to 37%tradingkey.com
  3. 3Should You Buy Datadog Stock Right Now? | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Competitive Analysiskoalagains.com
  5. 5Datadog vs. Snowflake: Which Cloud Data Stock Is the...tikr.com
  6. 6Datadog (DDOG) Stock News & Updates | StockTitanstocktitan.net

7. What evidence supports the market's implied slowdown in Palantir's customer acquisition rate through Q1 2027?

Q1 2027 Total Customers (Prediction)Approximately 1,150-1,175 (prediction market central estimate) [1][2]
Q3 2026 Total Customers (Actual)1,090 [3][4][5][6][7][8]
Q2/Q3 2026 Sequential Customer AdditionsAbout 41 per quarter [3][4][5][6][7][8]
Prediction markets imply a notable slowdown in Palantir's customer acquisition rate. The central estimate for Palantir's total customers in Q1 2027 is approximately 1,150-1,175 [1][2]. This market expectation aligns with an observed deceleration in sequential customer additions through Q3 2026. Palantir reported a total customer count of 1,090 in Q3 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Evidence confirms Palantir experienced slower customer additions through Q3 2026. Sequential customer additions decelerated from approximately 53 in Q1 2026 to about 41 in Q2 2026 and remained at approximately 41 in Q3 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Commercial customer growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis also slowed from +8% in Q1 2026 to +5% in both Q2 and Q3 2026 [9][7][8]. The Q1 2027 market, which assigns a 70% probability to 'Above 1150', suggests an expectation of only about 50-60 net new customers over the next two quarters, indicating a further deceleration from the approximately 41 per quarter pace observed in the second half of 2026 [1][7].
Further indicators suggest revenue expansion is driven by existing customer growth. Palantir's remaining performance obligations (RPO) were flat sequentially in Q3 2026, a first since Q1 2023, a trend partly attributed to shorter contract durations for sovereign AI customers [9]. In Q3 2026, $352 million, or 93%, of Palantir's $377 million commercial revenue increase over the trailing year originated from existing customers, with net dollar retention reaching 165% [10][7]. This trend indicates that revenue growth is increasingly reliant on expansion within existing accounts rather than new customer acquisition, a shift that UBS suggested might be structural rather than a demand-side issue [9][10][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Tech Prediction Markets & Odds - Page 23 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings report 2026cnbc.com
  4. 4pltr-20260630sec.gov
  5. 5Palantir Technologies Inc.investors.palantir.com
  6. 6Fourth Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025investors.palantir.com
  7. 7Business Update Q3 2026investors.palantir.com
  8. 8Q1 2026 Business Updateinvestors.palantir.com
  9. 9Palantir's AI demand is accelerating, but its backlog tells a...proactiveinvestors.com
  10. 10Palantir earnings will test the real shape of enterprise AIfastcompany.com

8. How do the distinct growth trends in Palantir's commercial and government segments project for the Q1 2027 total count?

Kalshi Q1 2027 Customer Forecast1,175-1,225 total customers (Q1 2027) [1][2]
Total Customers (Q3 2026)1,090 total customers (Q3 2026) [3][4]
Visible Alpha 2026 Customer Forecast1,166 total customers (2026 forecast) [5]
Palantir's total customer count is projected to increase significantly by Q1 2027. The company's total customer count is projected to reach approximately 1,175-1,225 in Q1 2027, according to the Kalshi prediction market as of November 4, 2026 [1][2]. This forecast represents an increase from the 1,090 total customers reported as of September 30, 2026 (Q3 2026) on a trailing 12-month basis, which included 904 commercial and 186 government customers [3][4]. Visible Alpha consensus forecasts Palantir's total customers to reach 1,166 in 2026, building on the 1,007 total customers reported as of March 31, 2026 [5][6][7].
Commercial growth trends are expected to significantly outpace government sector expansion. The anticipated customer growth is primarily driven by distinct trends in Palantir's commercial and government segments, with the commercial sector demonstrating a tendency to outpace government growth rates [8][7][9][5]. For example, in Q2 2026, US commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year to $764 million, while US government revenue grew 90% year-over-year to $809 million [8][7][9]. Visible Alpha consensus forecasts the commercial segment to become the largest at 51% of 2026 revenue, with commercial revenue projected to jump 89% to $3.9 billion in 2026 versus 58% growth for government to $3.8 billion [5]. CEO Alex Karp stated in May 2026 that he expects the U.S. business to double again in 2027, signaling continued high growth [7]. The company's net dollar retention was 157% in Q2 2026, and total remaining deal value stood at $13.1 billion, indicating strong expansion within its existing customer base alongside new acquisitions [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Tech Prediction Markets & Odds - Page 23 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3Palantir (PLTR) Q3 2026 Earnings: US Commercial...sec-api.io
  4. 4Palantir forecasts strong quarterly revenue on AI demandreuters.com
  5. 5Consensus shows Palantir's revenue shifting toward...spglobal.com
  6. 62026 Q1 PLTR 10-Q.pdfinvestors.palantir.com
  7. 7Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings report 2026cnbc.com
  8. 8Palantir Reports Q1 2026 US Revenue Growth of 104% Y...investors.palantir.com
  9. 9PLTR Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcripttickertrends.io

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Palantir reported 1,090 total customers at September 30, 2026, an increase of 20% year-over-year from 911 customers in September 2025. Customer count growth has decelerated each quarter: 44.8% (Sep 2025), 34.2%, 30.9%, 23.6%, and 19.6% (Sep 2026) [1]. Net customer additions held between 41 and 53 per quarter over the last four quarters, suggesting Q1 2027 could see approximately 1,150-1,200 total customers if the trend continues [1]. Q3 2026 revenue grew 96% year-over-year to approximately $2.18 billion; U.S. commercial revenue surpassed U.S. government revenue; net dollar retention reached 165%; and GAAP net margin was 49% [1][2][3]. The company raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.15 billion, an 82% growth, with U.S. commercial revenue guidance exceeding $3.424 billion (at least 143% growth) [3][4]. Positive drivers include traction for the Sovereign AI narrative, a 4x increase in Maven Smart System usage over 12 months, a $127 million Army contract, and a partnership with Nvidia [2][5][6]. Wall Street consensus is Overweight with an average target of $200.88 across 36 analysts [2][7].
Bearish risks persist, including the stock trading at approximately 53x expected 2026 revenue (forward P/S of 67.5x) [2][8][9][6][10]. RBC's $90 price target implies a 51% downside [2][8]. Concentration risk remains, as Palantir's top 20 customers averaged $124 million in trailing 12-month revenue (June 2026), 35x the average of the other 1,029 customers. The top 20's share of trailing revenue fell from 45.4% to 40.3% [1]. The company also reported $265 million in stock-based compensation and a dependence on U.S. government budget cycles [2][6].
Upcoming events include the Q4 2026 earnings estimate for February 1-17, 2027, and Q1 2027 earnings estimated between May 3-10, 2027 [11][4][12][13]. The Kalshi prediction market, as of November 4, 2026, prices 'Above 1150 total customers in Q1 2027' at 70%, and 'Above 1250' at 50%. This market resolves around March 3, 2027 [14][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 31, 2027
  • Closes: August 31, 2027
Sources (14)
  1. 1Palantir's Top 20 Customers Average $124M, 35x the Rest - FourWeekMBAfourweekmba.com
  2. 2Palantir Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Alex Karp Say?finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3[PLTR] Palantir: Q3 2026 earnings test for U.S. commercial bookings | drillrdrillr.ai
  4. 4Palantir (PLTR) Q3 2026 Earnings: Results, Market Reaction & History | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  5. 5Palantir’s Stock Has Soared More Than 1,700% Since Its IPO. How High Can PLTR Go From Here? - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  6. 6Palantir Could Hit a $400 Billion Market Cap by the End of 2027, and Here Is Why Investors Should Pay Attention | The Motley Foolfool.com
  7. 7PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatchmarketwatch.com
  8. 8Palantir Price Prediction: How High Can PLTR Realistically Go? - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  9. 9PLTR Stock Forecast 2027: Can It Reach $156? - Tradestietradestie.com
  10. 10Palantir Stock 2026 Forecast: Is Its High Valuation Sustainable? (NASDAQ:PLTR) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  11. 11Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  12. 12Palantir Earnings Date, Report, Conference Call, Forecasted Dates (PLTR)wallstreethorizon.com
  13. 13Palantir Technologies Stock Price | Stock Quote, News, and History | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  14. 14Palantir total customers in Q1 2027 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 10 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1150: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1140: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1130: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1120: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1110: NO (Nov 02, 2026)