KPIs Markets

IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing.

Active Markets (303)

Chewy active customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 22.1 million

Market Model 8.0% 5.0%

Above 21.95 million

Market Model 40.0% 43.2%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Nvidia headcount in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 52000

Market Model 40.0% 43.2%

Above 46000

Market Model 93.0% 94.0%

28.6K contracts Refresh

Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q3 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

Above 0.5%

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

0 contracts Refresh

Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 82%

Market Model 82.0% 62.0%

Above 83.5%

Market Model 16.0% 9.9%

12.8K contracts Refresh

ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $24.4 billion

Market Model 94.0% 88.0%

Above $24.7 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

2 contracts Refresh

Medtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2 Kalshi

Above 13%

Market Model 9.0% 5.5%

Above 12%

Market Model 34.0% 5.5%

7.1K contracts Refresh

Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 7%

Market Model 31.0% 12.0%

Above 6%

Market Model 51.0% 12.0%

22.9K contracts Refresh

GitLab customers over $100k ARR in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1645

Market Model 19.0% 6.0%

Above 1655

Market Model 7.0% 4.0%

1.1K contracts Refresh

Dollar General same-store sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.5%

Market Model 46.0% 7.2%

Above 2%

Market Model 78.0% 31.2%

3.2K contracts Refresh

Zoom customers over $100k in TTM revenue in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4700

Market Model 79.0% 20.0%

Above 4675

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

125 contracts Refresh

Williams-Sonoma brand growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4%

Market Model 88.0% 20.0%

Above 3%

Market Model 99.0% 20.0%

920 contracts Refresh

Urban Outfitters total stores in Q1 Kalshi

Above 832

Market Model 84.0% 88.9%

Above 836

Market Model 65.0% 62.0%

3.9K contracts Refresh

Urban Outfitters retail comparable sales in Q1 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 0.0% 0.9%

Above 10%

Market Model 0.0% 0.1%

0 contracts Refresh

Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q3 Kalshi

Above 5375

Market Model 7.0% 14.4%

Above 5400

Market Model 3.0% 3.0%

398 contracts Refresh

Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 52.0% 23.2%

Above -1.5%

Market Model 92.0% 23.2%

4.5K contracts Refresh

Dick's comparable sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 65.0% 65.6%

Above 3%

Market Model 38.0% 37.3%

4.4K contracts Refresh

Best Buy domestic comparable sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 11.0% 18.0%

Above 3%

Market Model 31.0% 25.0%

183 contracts Refresh

Affirm gross merchandise volume in Q1 Kalshi

Above $14 billion

Market Model 78.0% 70.0%

Above $14.25 billion

Market Model 50.0% 12.0%

1.8K contracts Refresh

Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 3.8%

Market Model 56.0% 36.5%

Above 3.4%

Market Model 88.0% 57.6%

9.8K contracts Refresh

Monster Beverage Corporation total case sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.14 billion

Market Model 69.0% 62.1%

Above 1.18 billion

Market Model 10.0% 10.0%

805 contracts Refresh

StubHub gross merchandise sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $10.1 billion

Market Model 88.0% 20.0%

Above $10 billion

Market Model 99.0% 20.0%

207 contracts Refresh

StubHub gross merchandise sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above $2.4 billion

Market Model 54.0% 58.0%

Above $2.5 billion

Market Model 33.0% 30.5%

15.0K contracts Refresh

Monster Beverage Corporation total case sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 335 million

Market Model 2.0% 10.0%

Above 295 million

Market Model 54.0% 63.2%

3.4K contracts Refresh

Etsy marketplace gross merchandise sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $11 billion

Market Model 60.0% 48.7%

Above $10.85 billion

Market Model 72.0% 48.7%

14.1K contracts Refresh

Etsy Gross Merchandise Sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above $2.54 billion

Market Model 80.0% 77.9%

Above $2.5 billion

Market Model 97.0% 94.5%

2.6K contracts Refresh

The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 43.0% 3.0%

Above 3%

Market Model 0.0% 15.0%

1 contracts Refresh

The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 5.5%

Market Model 84.0% 35.6%

Above 4.5%

Market Model 88.0% 53.2%

57.9K contracts Refresh

Cloudflare customers over $100k ARR in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5150

Market Model 95.0% 97.2%

Above 5200

Market Model 89.0% 91.4%

200 contracts Refresh

Coeur Mining gold production in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 700000

Market Model 31.0% 35.0%

Above 650000

Market Model 0.0% 45.0%

43 contracts Refresh

Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 8%

Market Model 40.0% 45.2%

Above 14%

Market Model 5.0% 8.7%

1.5K contracts Refresh

Venture Global LNG volumes in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1860 tbtu

Market Model 66.0% 20.0%

Above 1780 tbtu

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

100 contracts Refresh

ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above $96 billion

Market Model 58.0% 0.1%

Above $98 billion

Market Model 26.0% 0.1%

810 contracts Refresh

SoFi members in Q3 Kalshi

Above 16.9 million

Market Model 46.0% 56.4%

Above 17 million

Market Model 27.0% 34.4%

9.1K contracts Refresh

Remitly active customers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 11.2 million

Market Model 20.0% 22.0%

Above 11.1 million

Market Model 30.0% 33.5%

2.8K contracts Refresh

Chime active members in Q3 Kalshi

Above 10.7 million

Market Model 82.0% 1.0%

Above 10.8 million

Market Model 49.0% 0.8%

108 contracts Refresh

BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 47400

Market Model 53.0% 58.3%

Above 47100

Market Model 69.0% 58.3%

410 contracts Refresh

Dutch Bros total shops in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1340

Market Model 29.0% 5.0%

Above 1300

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

274 contracts Refresh

Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 2860

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

Above 2900

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

0 contracts Refresh

Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2760

Market Model 94.0% 2.0%

Above 2780

Market Model 0.0% 1.5%

50 contracts Refresh

Venture Global LNG volumes in Q3 Kalshi

Above 460 tbtu

Market Model 56.0% 0.7%

Above 500 tbtu

Market Model 13.0% 0.3%

9.6K contracts Refresh

SoFi members in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 17.8 million

Market Model 96.0% 20.5%

Above 18.6 million

Market Model 17.0% 14.0%

1.1K contracts Refresh

Sezzle gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $5.25 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.7%

Above $5.3 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.6%

0 contracts Refresh

Sezzle gross merchandise volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $1.44 billion

Market Model 7.0% 0.3%

Above $1.4 billion

Market Model 27.0% 0.6%

165 contracts Refresh

Remitly active customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 10.4 million

Market Model 98.0% 20.0%

Above 10.5 million

Market Model 99.0% 20.0%

3.3K contracts Refresh

Paymentus transactions processed in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 830 million

Market Model 0.0% 2.0%

Above 850 million

Market Model 0.0% 1.5%

0 contracts Refresh

Paymentus transactions processed in Q3 Kalshi

Above 225 million

Market Model 39.0% 0.1%

Above 222.5 million

Market Model 68.0% 0.1%

38 contracts Refresh

Nu Holdings customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 143.5 million

Market Model 29.0% 8.0%

Above 143 million

Market Model 19.0% 10.0%

36 contracts Refresh

Natera tests processed in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4.2 million

Market Model 79.0% 20.0%

Above 4.25 million

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

6 contracts Refresh

Natera tests processed in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1025000

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

Above 1050000

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

0 contracts Refresh

Neptune Insurance policies in force in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 360000

Market Model 75.0% 77.5%

Above 400000

Market Model 2.0% 7.8%

5.7K contracts Refresh

Neptune Insurance policies in force in Q3 Kalshi

Above 345000

Market Model 10.0% 12.0%

Above 350000

Market Model 17.0% 11.0%

821 contracts Refresh

Cloudflare customers over $100k ARR in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4900

Market Model 86.0% 12.0%

Above 4850

Market Model 0.0% 12.0%

3 contracts Refresh

Lemonade total customers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.7 million

Market Model 34.0% 1.0%

Above 3.75 million

Market Model 15.0% 0.4%

1.7K contracts Refresh

Lemonade total customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.5 million

Market Model 53.0% 7.8%

Above 3.52 million

Market Model 42.0% 6.0%

38.6K contracts Refresh

Life360 monthly active users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 114 million

Market Model 23.0% 12.0%

Above 113 million

Market Model 45.0% 12.0%

813 contracts Refresh

Life360 monthly active users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 107 million

Market Model 60.0% 38.4%

Above 106.5 million

Market Model 58.0% 50.8%

4.8K contracts Refresh

Klaviyo customers over $50k ARR in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4950

Market Model 0.0% 0.8%

Above 5025

Market Model 0.0% 0.7%

0 contracts Refresh

Klaviyo customers over $50k ARR in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4875

Market Model 9.0% 10.0%

Above 4825

Market Model 23.0% 20.0%

77 contracts Refresh

Samsara customers over $100k ARR in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 3850

Market Model 0.0% 0.1%

Above 3900

Market Model 0.0% 0.1%

0 contracts Refresh

Grindr average paying users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.42 million

Market Model 71.0% 0.0%

Above 1.44 million

Market Model 49.0% 0.0%

29 contracts Refresh

Grindr average paying users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1.46 million

Market Model 43.0% 30.2%

Above 1.5 million

Market Model 14.0% 26.0%

670 contracts Refresh

Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 265

Market Model 46.0% 20.0%

Above 220

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

2 contracts Refresh

Evolv Technologies new customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 60

Market Model 69.0% 18.0%

Above 70

Market Model 38.0% 10.0%

31 contracts Refresh

Datadog customer over$100k ARR in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5140

Market Model 51.0% 36.0%

Above 5120

Market Model 55.0% 37.0%

10.4K contracts Refresh

Datadog customers over $100k ARR in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4940

Market Model 24.0% 12.0%

Above 4920

Market Model 47.0% 20.0%

3.7K contracts Refresh

Dave ExtraCash origination volume in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $9.5 billion

Market Model 56.0% 0.7%

Above $9.3 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.9%

161 contracts Refresh

Dave ExtraCash origination volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $2.5 billion

Market Model 45.0% 67.0%

Above $2.3 billion

Market Model 94.0% 72.2%

412 contracts Refresh

Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1%

Market Model 62.0% 1.5%

Above 2%

Market Model 37.0% 0.5%

6.9K contracts Refresh

Chime active members in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 11.1 million

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

Above 11.2 million

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

0 contracts Refresh

Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Kalshi

Above 230000

Market Model 5.0% 10.0%

Above 220000

Market Model 22.0% 12.0%

146 contracts Refresh

CAVA same restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 6.5%

Market Model 41.0% 0.7%

Above 4.5%

Market Model 0.0% 0.9%

88 contracts Refresh

CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 6%

Market Model 13.0% 59.2%

Above 7%

Market Model 20.0% 9.0%

569 contracts Refresh

BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 42.9 million

Market Model 88.0% 0.0%

Above 43.1 million

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

1 contracts Refresh

BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q3 Kalshi

Above 11.05 million

Market Model 15.0% 10.0%

Above 10.65 million

Market Model 0.0% 12.0%

0 contracts Refresh

BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Kalshi

Above 46800

Market Model 0.0% 0.6%

Above 47000

Market Model 0.0% 0.5%

0 contracts Refresh

Dutch Bros same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 6.5%

Market Model 3.0% 5.0%

Above 4.5%

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

150 contracts Refresh

Dutch Bros same-shop sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 54.0% 8.0%

Above 3.5%

Market Model 98.0% 20.0%

456 contracts Refresh

Dutch Bros total shops in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1270

Market Model 61.0% 20.0%

Above 1250

Market Model 97.0% 20.0%

877 contracts Refresh

Hims subscribers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.15 million

Market Model 27.0% 0.3%

Above 3.1 million

Market Model 40.0% 0.4%

10.4K contracts Refresh

Instacart gross transaction value in Q3 Kalshi

Above $10.4 billion

Market Model 79.0% 70.0%

Above $10.65 billion

Market Model 3.0% 2.0%

27.2K contracts Refresh

Instacart gross transaction value in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $42 billion

Market Model 65.0% 5.0%

Above $42.5 billion

Market Model 24.0% 3.0%

2.7K contracts Refresh

eToro funded accounts in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.35 million

Market Model 86.0% 9.0%

Above 4.3 million

Market Model 94.0% 11.0%

11.8K contracts Refresh

Dick's Sporting Goods comparable store sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 33.0% 15.0%

Above 7%

Market Model 6.0% 4.0%

401 contracts Refresh

Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 4840

Market Model 12.0% 20.0%

Above 4880

Market Model 8.0% 20.0%

201 contracts Refresh

Clear+ members in Q3 Kalshi

Above 8.45 million

Market Model 50.0% 0.9%

Above 8.5 million

Market Model 32.0% 0.8%

476 contracts Refresh

Williams-Sonoma total comparable brand growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 38.0% 20.0%

Above 7%

Market Model 5.0% 3.0%

1.0K contracts Refresh

Rocket Lab vehicles launched in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 33

Market Model 7.0% 0.1%

Above 25

Market Model 0.0% 0.5%

1 contracts Refresh

Rocket Lab vehicles launched in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4

Market Model 99.0% 0.7%

Above 5

Market Model 0.0% 0.4%

250 contracts Refresh

UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 420

Market Model 60.0% 20.0%

Above 450

Market Model 6.0% 10.0%

401 contracts Refresh

Okta customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 5375

Market Model 88.0% 0.0%

Above 5450

Market Model 11.0% 0.0%

601 contracts Refresh

Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 117%

Market Model 6.0% 2.0%

Above 111%

Market Model 0.0% 12.0%

1 contracts Refresh

Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in Q3 Kalshi

Above 111%

Market Model 94.0% 0.0%

Above 117%

Market Model 6.0% 0.0%

5 contracts Refresh

MercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $95 billion

Market Model 6.0% 0.2%

Above $87 billion

Market Model 0.0% 1.0%

1 contracts Refresh

MercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 100 million

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

Above 101 million

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

0 contracts Refresh

MercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $21.5 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.1%

Above $22 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.1%

0 contracts Refresh

MercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 91 million

Market Model 92.0% 20.0%

Above 91.5 million

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

38 contracts Refresh

Medtronic cardiovascular organic growth in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 10%

Market Model 41.0% 20.0%

Above 11%

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

400 contracts Refresh

Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 0.5%

Market Model 56.0% 20.0%

Above 1%

Market Model 52.0% 20.0%

3.9K contracts Refresh

GitLab customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 1640

Market Model 0.0% 12.0%

Above 1660

Market Model 0.0% 11.0%

0 contracts Refresh

eToro funded accounts in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4.5 million

Market Model 55.0% 12.0%

Above 4.55 million

Market Model 42.0% 12.0%

4.0K contracts Refresh

eBay gross merchandise volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $22.4 billion

Market Model 99.0% 0.4%

Above $23.4 billion

Market Model 1.0% 0.2%

236 contracts Refresh

Dollar General same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.5%

Market Model 92.0% 20.0%

Above 2.5%

Market Model 40.0% 20.0%

2.4K contracts Refresh

CoreWeave contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5.2 gw

Market Model 29.0% 0.0%

Above 5.6 gw

Market Model 9.0% 0.0%

21 contracts Refresh

CoreWeave data centers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 64

Market Model 81.0% 0.7%

Above 66

Market Model 58.0% 0.6%

2.9K contracts Refresh

CoreWeave power capacity in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.4 gw

Market Model 3.0% 0.3%

Above 4 gw

Market Model 99.0% 0.5%

2.5K contracts Refresh

CoreWeave data centers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 56

Market Model 62.0% 0.0%

Above 59

Market Model 26.0% 0.0%

1.9K contracts Refresh

Chewy active customers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 22 million

Market Model 47.0% 20.0%

Above 22.3 million

Market Model 5.0% 2.0%

411 contracts Refresh

Best Buy domestic comparable store sales in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 35.0% 5.0%

Above 3%

Market Model 16.0% 2.0%

1.4K contracts Refresh

Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 Kalshi

Above 860

Market Model 75.0% 20.0%

Above 880

Market Model 19.0% 20.0%

888 contracts Refresh

Zeta super-scaled customers (>$1m) in Q3 Kalshi

Above 218

Market Model 2.0% 1.0%

Above 200

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

280 contracts Refresh

Urban Outfitters comparable sales in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 5%

Market Model 45.0% 20.0%

Above 9%

Market Model 4.0% 5.0%

401 contracts Refresh

Ulta comparable sales in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4%

Market Model 65.0% 20.0%

Above 7%

Market Model 6.0% 10.0%

2 contracts Refresh

Ulta comparable sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.5%

Market Model 19.0% 2.5%

Above 7%

Market Model 6.0% 0.2%

227 contracts Refresh

Toast total locations in Q3 Kalshi

Above 192 thousand

Market Model 15.0% 15.0%

Above 184 thousand

Market Model 98.0% 20.0%

557 contracts Refresh

Toll Brothers delivered homes in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 10500

Market Model 75.0% 20.0%

Above 10400

Market Model 89.0% 20.0%

3.7K contracts Refresh

Talen Energy TWh generation in Q3 Kalshi

Above 15.5 twh

Market Model 82.0% 0.2%

Above 15 twh

Market Model 97.0% 0.5%

205 contracts Refresh

Starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 19 million

Market Model 15.0% 5.0%

Above 17 million

Market Model 37.0% 12.0%

306 contracts Refresh

Starlink active subscribers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 15 million

Market Model 31.0% 7.0%

Above 14 million

Market Model 75.0% 7.0%

1.8K contracts Refresh

Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 950

Market Model 43.0% 0.2%

Above 850

Market Model 0.0% 0.9%

33 contracts Refresh

Sea Limited Shopee GMV in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $166 billion

Market Model 41.0% 0.1%

Above $164 billion

Market Model 60.0% 0.1%

220 contracts Refresh

Sea Limited Garena paying users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 75 million

Market Model 29.0% 7.0%

Above 72 million

Market Model 62.0% 11.0%

222 contracts Refresh

Sea Limited Garena paying users in Q4 Kalshi

Above 70 million

Market Model 52.0% 20.0%

Above 74 million

Market Model 17.0% 20.0%

221 contracts Refresh

Sea Limited Shopee GMV in Q3 Kalshi

Above $40 billion

Market Model 64.0% 0.0%

Above $36 billion

Market Model 0.0% 0.0%

200 contracts Refresh

Match total payers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 13.4 million

Market Model 84.0% 0.1%

Above 13.2 million

Market Model 87.0% 0.2%

190 contracts Refresh

Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 3.0% 3.2%

Above -1%

Market Model 6.0% 3.2%

72.1K contracts Refresh

Target comparable sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4%

Market Model 61.0% 2.0%

Above 5%

Market Model 41.0% 1.0%

9.6K contracts Refresh

Petrobras total production (Mboed) in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 3250 mboed

Market Model 88.0% 80.6%

Above 3200 mboed

Market Model 87.0% 83.8%

4.4K contracts Refresh

Petrobras total production (Mboed) in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3300 mboed

Market Model 85.0% 77.3%

Above 3350 mboed

Market Model 82.0% 59.1%

6.5K contracts Refresh

Wingstop total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 3525

Market Model 56.0% 78.4%

Above 3475

Market Model 73.0% 97.0%

2.3K contracts Refresh

Starbucks headcount in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 368 thousand

Market Model 29.0% 26.8%

Above 377 thousand

Market Model 12.0% 8.0%

6.9K contracts Refresh

KFC same-store sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 47.0% 3.0%

Above 4%

Market Model 11.0% 1.0%

1.5K contracts Refresh

Target comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.5%

Market Model 73.0% 10.0%

Above 5%

Market Model 34.0% 1.0%

8.2K contracts Refresh

Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 12.5%

Market Model 20.0% 0.0%

Above 12%

Market Model 16.0% 0.0%

32.5K contracts Refresh

Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 Kalshi

Above 17%

Market Model 1.0% 0.2%

Above 14%

Market Model 3.0% 0.5%

54.6K contracts Refresh

Reddit daily active uniques in Q3 Kalshi

Above 136 million

Market Model 42.0% 0.4%

Above 132 million

Market Model 85.0% 1.0%

1.7K contracts Refresh

Ferrari shipments in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3425

Market Model 21.0% 0.2%

Above 3400

Market Model 19.0% 0.3%

8.8K contracts Refresh

Palantir total customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1130

Market Model 13.0% 3.0%

Above 1150

Market Model 7.0% 1.0%

597 contracts Refresh

Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q3 Kalshi

Above 900 thousand

Market Model 70.0% 0.0%

Above 870 thousand

Market Model 86.0% 0.0%

5.8K contracts Refresh

Altria Group cigarette shipments in Q3 Kalshi

Above 15.5 billion

Market Model 33.0% 0.2%

Above 15.25 billion

Market Model 53.0% 0.3%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Marriott International total rooms in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.86 million

Market Model 64.0% 20.0%

Above 1.855 million

Market Model 87.0% 20.0%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Marriott International total rooms in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1.84 million

Market Model 21.0% 5.0%

Above 1.845 million

Market Model 11.0% 3.0%

4.7K contracts Refresh

Lowe's comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 0.5%

Market Model 55.0% 20.0%

Above 3%

Market Model 2.0% 1.0%

1.5K contracts Refresh

Robinhood event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $65 billion

Market Model 47.0% 7.0%

Above $80 billion

Market Model 7.0% 1.0%

82.5K contracts Refresh

Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $16 billion

Market Model 75.0% 20.0%

Above $18 billion

Market Model 37.0% 20.0%

18.5K contracts Refresh

Grab monthly transacting users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 58.5 million

Market Model 7.0% 0.7%

Above 60.5 million

Market Model 9.0% 0.3%

375 contracts Refresh

First Solar module volume sold in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3800 mw

Market Model 95.0% 20.0%

Above 5200 mw

Market Model 1.0% 0.1%

59.0K contracts Refresh

Coinbase monthly transacting users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 9.5 million

Market Model 5.0% 0.0%

Above 9 million

Market Model 16.0% 0.0%

504 contracts Refresh

Coinbase monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 7 million

Market Model 11.0% 12.0%

Above 8 million

Market Model 2.0% 12.0%

6.9K contracts Refresh

Amazon headcount in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1.54 million

Market Model 97.0% 1.0%

Above 1.6 million

Market Model 80.0% 0.3%

23.2K contracts Refresh

Wingstop total restaurants in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3360

Market Model 78.0% 65.1%

Above 3380

Market Model 33.0% 28.3%

4.1K contracts Refresh

Zeta super-scaled customers (>$1m) in 2026 Kalshi

Above 216

Market Model 38.0% 37.4%

Above 204

Market Model 84.0% 80.5%

716 contracts Refresh

Meta ad impressions growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 18%

Market Model 5.0% 1.7%

Above 16%

Market Model 9.0% 9.7%

956 contracts Refresh

Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above -6%

Market Model 47.0% 59.7%

Above -12%

Market Model 92.0% 94.2%

1.7K contracts Refresh

Wingstop domestic same store sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 11.0% 5.7%

Above -2%

Market Model 47.0% 25.6%

1.1K contracts Refresh

Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 16 billion

Market Model 69.0% 61.1%

Above 15.4 billion

Market Model 99.0% 94.0%

2.2K contracts Refresh

Starbucks comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027 Kalshi

Above 7%

Market Model 11.0% 9.0%

Above 6%

Market Model 32.0% 20.2%

1.2K contracts Refresh

Starbucks total global stores in Q1 2027 Kalshi

Above 41800

Market Model 14.0% 15.0%

Above 41500

Market Model 62.0% 73.9%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Roblox hours engaged in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 140 billion

Market Model 24.0% 14.7%

Above 135 billion

Market Model 10.0% 23.1%

13.0K contracts Refresh

Meta headcount in Q3 Kalshi

Above 77 thousand

Market Model 4.0% 3.2%

Above 69 thousand

Market Model 40.0% 26.3%

6.6K contracts Refresh

Meta family daily active people in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.69 billion

Market Model 8.0% 38.9%

Above 3.64 billion

Market Model 46.0% 38.9%

120 contracts Refresh

Robinhood gold subs in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.9 million

Market Model 96.0% 93.1%

Above 4.8 million

Market Model 98.0% 93.1%

7.9K contracts Refresh

Robinhood funded customers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 29 million

Market Model 14.0% 64.1%

Above 29.5 million

Market Model 5.0% 25.9%

78.2K contracts Refresh

Futu total funded accounts in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4.4 million

Market Model 7.0% 5.5%

Above 4.1 million

Market Model 83.0% 84.1%

671 contracts Refresh

Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 215000

Market Model 66.0% 53.6%

Above 220000

Market Model 13.0% 19.0%

52.7K contracts Refresh

Chipotle total restaurant count in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4290

Market Model 20.0% 24.0%

Above 4280

Market Model 24.0% 25.9%

5.4K contracts Refresh

Chipotle comparable restaurant sales increase in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 38.0% 34.2%

Above 0%

Market Model 87.0% 76.8%

1.9K contracts Refresh

Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.4%

Market Model 61.0% 81.3%

Above 4%

Market Model 33.0% 49.4%

4.3K contracts Refresh

Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above -5%

Market Model 35.0% 47.6%

Above -6%

Market Model 57.0% 59.1%

4.4K contracts Refresh

Verizon postpaid phone net additions in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 650 thousand

Market Model 95.0% 97.2%

Above 600 thousand

Market Model 94.0% 97.2%

1.4K contracts Refresh

Uber trips in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.1 billion

Market Model 58.0% 51.9%

Above 4.15 billion

Market Model 45.0% 49.5%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Snap average daily active users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 492 million

Market Model 77.0% 44.2%

Above 500 million

Market Model 98.0% 12.7%

5.3K contracts Refresh

Snap daily active users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 494 million

Market Model 65.0% 41.4%

Above 500 million

Market Model 27.0% 16.9%

4.8K contracts Refresh

Roblox daily active users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 170 million

Market Model 10.0% 2.5%

Above 150 million

Market Model 27.0% 14.5%

1.9K contracts Refresh

Roblox hours engaged in Q3 Kalshi

Above 33 billion

Market Model 79.0% 95.4%

Above 34 billion

Market Model 31.0% 77.7%

56.9K contracts Refresh

Roblox daily active users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 146 million

Market Model 84.0% 23.8%

Above 158 million

Market Model 13.0% 8.6%

3.8K contracts Refresh

Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 11.6 billion

Market Model 91.0% 77.7%

Above 11.8 billion

Market Model 40.0% 56.4%

2.9K contracts Refresh

Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.3 billion

Market Model 58.0% 60.0%

Above 3.2 billion

Market Model 62.0% 78.3%

6.2K contracts Refresh

Meta advertisement impressions growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 16%

Market Model 35.0% 24.7%

Above 14%

Market Model 59.0% 29.8%

1.2K contracts Refresh

Lyft total rides in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.01 billion

Market Model 85.0% 82.4%

Above 1.04 billion

Market Model 62.0% 46.2%

1.6K contracts Refresh

Lyft total rides in Q3 Kalshi

Above 270 million

Market Model 40.0% 18.5%

Above 272 million

Market Model 21.0% 12.5%

3.1K contracts Refresh

Home Depot customer transactions in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.6 billion

Market Model 2.0% 40.8%

Above 1.62 billion

Market Model 51.0% 8.9%

2.2K contracts Refresh

Home Depot customer transactions in Q3 Kalshi

Above 405 million

Market Model 6.0% 3.0%

Above 390 million

Market Model 49.0% 34.8%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Futu total funded accounts in Q3 Kalshi

Above 4.15 million

Market Model 11.0% 7.5%

Above 3.95 million

Market Model 92.0% 68.6%

639 contracts Refresh

Figma paid customers >$100k arr in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 2000

Market Model 40.0% 42.0%

Above 1950

Market Model 54.0% 48.5%

1.1K contracts Refresh

Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Kalshi

Above 1725

Market Model 93.0% 90.0%

Above 1800

Market Model 39.0% 46.9%

261 contracts Refresh

Duolingo paid subscribers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 14.4 million

Market Model 6.0% 5.5%

Above 14.2 million

Market Model 11.0% 5.5%

956 contracts Refresh

Duolingo daily active users in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 61 million

Market Model 77.0% 74.0%

Above 68.5 million

Market Model 4.0% 3.9%

6.3K contracts Refresh

Duolingo paid subscribers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 13.9 million

Market Model 8.0% 7.5%

Above 13.7 million

Market Model 20.0% 16.3%

4.6K contracts Refresh

Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 60 million

Market Model 78.0% 56.2%

Above 59.5 million

Market Model 83.0% 70.1%

3.0K contracts Refresh

DraftKings sportsbook margin in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 6.5%

Market Model 83.0% 76.6%

Above 9%

Market Model 4.0% 2.3%

1.2K contracts Refresh

DraftKings average monthly unique payers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4 million

Market Model 62.0% 69.1%

Above 4.8 million

Market Model 1.0% 3.2%

2.0K contracts Refresh

DraftKings average monthly unique payers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.6 million

Market Model 88.0% 36.6%

Above 3.4 million

Market Model 95.0% 54.2%

10.8K contracts Refresh

DraftKings sportsbook margin in Q3 Kalshi

Above 7%

Market Model 64.0% 39.6%

Above 6%

Market Model 83.0% 72.2%

2.8K contracts Refresh

Taco Bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 4%

Market Model 50.0% 64.2%

Above 3%

Market Model 77.0% 76.6%

13.8K contracts Refresh

KFC same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 0%

Market Model 89.0% 84.4%

Above 5%

Market Model 5.0% 3.0%

1.6K contracts Refresh

Wyndham Hotels total rooms in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 895 thousand

Market Model 21.0% 47.8%

Above 890 thousand

Market Model 63.0% 72.2%

11.5K contracts Refresh

Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q3 Kalshi

Above 325 thousand

Market Model 21.0% 7.4%

Above 275 thousand

Market Model 43.0% 22.9%

3.3K contracts Refresh

Klarna active consumers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 128 million

Market Model 42.0% 60.7%

Above 126 million

Market Model 59.0% 79.0%

3.9K contracts Refresh

CAVA total restaurants in Q3 Kalshi

Above 494

Market Model 86.0% 47.6%

Above 492

Market Model 99.0% 82.0%

18.8K contracts Refresh

American Express cards-in-force in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 162 million

Market Model 4.0% 9.4%

Above 157 million

Market Model 61.0% 73.3%

11.4K contracts Refresh

Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q3 Kalshi

Above 882 thousand

Market Model 34.0% 25.9%

Above 885 thousand

Market Model 19.0% 18.1%

4.5K contracts Refresh

Spotify premium subscribers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 304 million

Market Model 70.0% 78.0%

Above 306 million

Market Model 48.0% 19.0%

3.8K contracts Refresh

Spotify monthly active users in Q3 Kalshi

Above 802 million

Market Model 16.0% 9.0%

Above 794 million

Market Model 52.0% 43.7%

1.7K contracts Refresh

Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $470 billion

Market Model 85.0% 90.0%

Above $490 billion

Market Model 72.0% 61.0%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q3 Kalshi

Above $122 billion

Market Model 24.0% 10.5%

Above $113 billion

Market Model 77.0% 61.1%

4.5K contracts Refresh

McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 47000

Market Model 84.0% 89.9%

Above 47600

Market Model 37.0% 0.0%

1.2K contracts Refresh

McDonald's comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 3%

Market Model 39.0% 28.0%

Above 2%

Market Model 60.0% 44.0%

10.9K contracts Refresh

McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q3 2026 Kalshi

Above 46700

Market Model 25.0% 45.8%

Above 46400

Market Model 81.0% 86.3%

2.7K contracts Refresh

McDonald's Corporation global comparable sales growth in Q3 2026 Kalshi

Above 2.5%

Market Model 27.0% 38.3%

Above 2%

Market Model 42.0% 38.4%

3.4K contracts Refresh

Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above $225

Market Model 84.0% 78.0%

Above $220

Market Model 86.0% 79.0%

9.3K contracts Refresh

Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q3 Kalshi

Above 57.5 million

Market Model 39.0% 22.5%

Above 57 million

Market Model 72.0% 48.4%

6.1K contracts Refresh

Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q3 Kalshi

Above $185

Market Model 99.0% 97.2%

Above $225

Market Model 56.0% 58.0%

11.9K contracts Refresh

Klarna active klarna consumers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 123 million

Market Model 52.0% 62.0%

Above 121 million

Market Model 79.0% 87.0%

2.6K contracts Refresh

Robinhood gold subscribers in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5.2 million

Market Model 68.0% 35.0%

Above 5.4 million

Market Model 50.0% 25.0%

7.3K contracts Refresh

Google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 12%

Market Model 25.0% 27.6%

Above 8%

Market Model 63.0% 62.1%

5.1K contracts Refresh

Google search paid clicks change in Q3 Kalshi

Above 15%

Market Model 32.0% 24.0%

Above 14%

Market Model 55.0% 44.4%

5.9K contracts Refresh

Disney domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 1%

Market Model 48.0% 26.1%

Above 0%

Market Model 69.0% 52.2%

9.4K contracts Refresh

DoorDash total orders in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.9 billion

Market Model 60.0% 71.2%

Above 4.1 billion

Market Model 1.0% 10.4%

2.4K contracts Refresh

DoorDash total orders in Q3 Kalshi

Above 990 million

Market Model 56.0% 61.0%

Above 1000 million

Market Model 38.0% 25.0%

3.1K contracts Refresh

Chipotle headcount in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 110 thousand

Market Model 76.0% 89.9%

Above 108 thousand

Market Model 92.0% 89.9%

4.9K contracts Refresh

CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 520

Market Model 46.0% 15.0%

Above 515

Market Model 62.0% 66.3%

5.1K contracts Refresh

Webull funded accounts in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 5.35 million

Market Model 29.0% 30.6%

Above 5.25 million

Market Model 76.0% 56.6%

2.0K contracts Refresh

Webull funded accounts in Q3 Kalshi

Above 5.35 million

Market Model 13.0% 17.5%

Above 5.4 million

Market Model 13.0% 17.5%

4.6K contracts Refresh

Airbnb Inc. nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 600 million

Market Model 4.0% 10.4%

Above 595 million

Market Model 5.0% 30.2%

1.3K contracts Refresh

Airbnb bookings in Q3 Kalshi

Above 146 million

Market Model 62.0% 34.4%

Above 150 million

Market Model 30.0% 22.0%

3.3K contracts Refresh

Lockheed Martin headcount in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 124 thousand

Market Model 37.0% 16.0%

Above 123 thousand

Market Model 78.0% 19.0%

7.7K contracts Refresh

Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 130

Market Model 73.0% 58.1%

Above 170

Market Model 4.0% 5.2%

5.3K contracts Refresh

Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3 Kalshi

Above 35

Market Model 59.0% 57.4%

Above 55

Market Model 4.0% 2.3%

14.7K contracts Refresh

Intel headcount in Q3 Kalshi

Above 80 thousand

Market Model 70.0% 73.6%

Above 80.5 thousand

Market Model 71.0% 37.6%

8.4K contracts Refresh

Google headcount in Q3 Kalshi

Above 204 thousand

Market Model 75.0% 48.0%

Above 203 thousand

Market Model 62.0% 55.0%

6.2K contracts Refresh

American Express headcount in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 76 thousand

Market Model 72.0% 63.0%

Above 75 thousand

Market Model 89.0% 73.3%

10.1K contracts Refresh

American Express cards-in-force in Q3 Kalshi

Above 157 million

Market Model 4.0% 43.9%

Above 156 million

Market Model 25.0% 90.2%

96.5K contracts Refresh

Alaska Air passenger load factor in Q3 Kalshi

Above 84%

Market Model 34.0% 47.6%

Above 84.5%

Market Model 39.0% 31.1%

22.0K contracts Refresh

American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3 Kalshi

Above 84%

Market Model 86.0% 70.1%

Above 87%

Market Model 4.0% 4.6%

43.9K contracts Refresh

American Airlines passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 82%

Market Model 94.0% 94.5%

Above 82.5%

Market Model 74.0% 92.7%

41.0K contracts Refresh

Talen Energy TWh generation in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 50 TWh

Market Model 99.0% 94.3%

Above 53 TWh

Market Model 91.0% 94.3%

8.2K contracts Refresh

Charles Schwab active brokerage accounts in Q3 Kalshi

Above 41 million

Market Model 4.0% 7.8%

Above 40.8 million

Market Model 13.0% 12.1%

8.1K contracts Refresh

First Solar Gigawatts sold in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 17.4 GW

Market Model 63.0% 67.0%

Above 17.6 GW

Market Model 41.0% 50.0%

1.1K contracts Refresh

Domino's US same store sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 45.0% 52.2%

Above 4%

Market Model 15.0% 44.0%

4.5K contracts Refresh

Wingstop US same store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above -2%

Market Model 44.0% 81.7%

Above -1%

Market Model 96.0% 81.7%

1.9K contracts Refresh

Domino's total US stores in Q3 Kalshi

Above 7280

Market Model 7.0% 23.4%

Above 7260

Market Model 71.0% 49.0%

44.3K contracts Refresh

United Airlines passengers in Q3 Kalshi

Above 50.5 million

Market Model 37.0% 0.5%

Above 49.5 million

Market Model 93.0% 0.5%

4.0K contracts Refresh

Dollarama comparable store sales growth in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 6%

Market Model 18.0% 8.6%

Above 5%

Market Model 48.0% 30.0%

2.1K contracts Refresh

Boeing commercial deliveries in Q3 Kalshi

Above 168

Market Model 5.0% 94.0%

Above 192

Market Model 1.0% 8.0%

94.4K contracts Refresh

Loblaw food retail same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 2%

Market Model 79.0% 85.3%

Above 3.5%

Market Model 14.0% 6.7%

3.4K contracts Refresh

United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 Kalshi

Above 186 million

Market Model 80.0% 51.6%

Above 180 million

Market Model 94.0% 96.0%

27.6K contracts Refresh

Tesla total production in 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.9 million

Market Model 10.0% 9.0%

Above 1.65 million

Market Model 80.0% 72.3%

11.4K contracts Refresh

Tesla headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 130000

Market Model 84.0% 81.9%

Above 140000

Market Model 38.0% 41.1%

13.0K contracts Refresh

Tesla total deliveries in 2026 Kalshi

Above 1.75 million

Market Model 75.0% 28.6%

Above 1.9 million

Market Model 11.0% 8.1%

62.1K contracts Refresh

Tesla total deliveries in Q3 Kalshi

Above 500000

Market Model 16.0% 38.9%

Above 440000

Market Model 87.0% 54.3%

59.1K contracts Refresh

Toast total locations in 2026 Kalshi

Above 198 thousand

Market Model 33.0% 28.5%

Above 189 thousand

Market Model 93.0% 98.8%

14.5K contracts Refresh

How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026? Kalshi

Above 1000

Market Model 27.0% 47.6%

Above 5000

Market Model 8.0% 21.0%

155.5K contracts Refresh

How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? Kalshi

Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter

Market Model 63.0% 96.5%

Above 30 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter

Market Model 3.0% 18.5%

37.2K contracts Refresh

How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? Kalshi

Above 500000 in a single quarter

Market Model 52.0% 50.4%

Above 750000 in a single quarter

Market Model 3.0% 5.5%

104.3K contracts Refresh

Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average? Kalshi

4.19 million

Market Model 56.0% 27.1%

4.65 million

Market Model 11.0% 3.9%

11.6K contracts Refresh

Constellation Brands Beer Shipments in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 425 million

Market Model 38.0% 26.7%

Above 430 million

Market Model 7.0% 3.2%

45 contracts Refresh

Constellation Brands total beer shipments in Q2 Kalshi

Above 120 million

Market Model 44.0% 32.4%

Above 124 million

Market Model 25.0% 9.3%

772 contracts Refresh

Spotify premium subscribers in 2026 Kalshi

Above 316 million

Market Model 9.0% 27.0%

Above 328 million

Market Model 2.0% 5.5%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Spotify total monthly active users in 2026 Kalshi

Above 800 million

Market Model 97.0% 91.0%

Above 810 million

Market Model 80.0% 84.0%

19.7K contracts Refresh

Spotify headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 7300

Market Model 33.0% 3.6%

Above 7400

Market Model 11.0% 3.4%

362 contracts Refresh

Charles Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts in 2026 Kalshi

Above 41 million

Market Model 31.0% 21.0%

Above 40.8 million

Market Model 51.0% 22.0%

539 contracts Refresh

Starbucks total global stores in 2026 Kalshi

Above 41800

Market Model 78.0% 2.0%

Above 42000

Market Model 11.0% 1.0%

88.0K contracts Refresh

Starbucks comparable transactions growth in 2026 Kalshi

Above 3%

Market Model 76.0% 83.0%

Above 5%

Market Model 38.0% 14.0%

1.4K contracts Refresh

Rivian total vehicles delivered in 2026 Kalshi

Above 46000

Market Model 86.0% 86.1%

Above 52000

Market Model 88.0% 79.6%

77.5K contracts Refresh

Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q3 Kalshi

Above 13500

Market Model 95.0% 66.6%

Above 12000

Market Model 96.0% 91.7%

119.1K contracts Refresh

Reddit daily active uniques in 2026 Kalshi

Above 138 million

Market Model 83.0% 75.8%

Above 154 million

Market Model 3.0% 0.7%

12.1K contracts Refresh

Ferrari total car shipments in 2026 Kalshi

Above 13900

Market Model 18.0% 7.9%

Above 13500

Market Model 83.0% 64.1%

28.2K contracts Refresh

Palantir total customer count in 2026 Kalshi

Above 1100

Market Model 87.0% 90.7%

Above 1200

Market Model 33.0% 57.1%

20.9K contracts Refresh

Oracle headcount in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 160000

Market Model 11.0% 5.1%

Above 130000

Market Model 1.0% 70.4%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Netflix headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 17500

Market Model 40.0% 59.1%

Above 19000

Market Model 14.0% 10.4%

13.0K contracts Refresh

Norwegian Cruise passengers carried in 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.25 million

Market Model 88.0% 88.1%

Above 3.3 million

Market Model 78.0% 82.2%

66.3K contracts Refresh

Match total payers in 2026 Kalshi

Above 13.8 million

Market Model 12.0% 3.0%

Above 12.4 million

Market Model 73.0% 80.3%

27.0K contracts Refresh

Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026 Kalshi

Above 54.5 billion

Market Model 93.0% 62.3%

Above 61 billion

Market Model 5.0% 2.1%

48.2K contracts Refresh

Meta headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 65000

Market Model 86.0% 85.7%

Above 77000

Market Model 7.0% 8.0%

48.9K contracts Refresh

Meta family daily active people in 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.72 billion

Market Model 64.0% 53.3%

Above 3.68 billion

Market Model 79.0% 91.9%

4.9K contracts Refresh

MercadoLibre items sold in 2026 Kalshi

Above 3.6 billion

Market Model 12.0% 10.5%

Above 3 billion

Market Model 98.0% 91.7%

71.4K contracts Refresh

Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026 Kalshi

Above 227 million

Market Model 59.0% 65.0%

Above 229 million

Market Model 32.0% 35.0%

3.1K contracts Refresh

Lululemon Americas comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above -6%

Market Model 35.0% 34.3%

Above -5%

Market Model 26.0% 29.5%

26.8K contracts Refresh

Intel headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 78000

Market Model 80.0% 72.0%

Above 80000

Market Model 70.0% 31.0%

892 contracts Refresh

Hims subscribers in 2026 Kalshi

Above 2.84 million

Market Model 94.0% 94.0%

Above 3.08 million

Market Model 44.0% 40.2%

40.6K contracts Refresh

Grab monthly transacting users in 2026 Kalshi

Above 62 million

Market Model 14.0% 4.2%

Above 60 million

Market Model 8.0% 8.5%

29.0K contracts Refresh

Google headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 208000

Market Model 28.0% 2.7%

Above 188000

Market Model 95.0% 97.0%

29.6K contracts Refresh

Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026 Kalshi

Above 2 million

Market Model 80.0% 56.2%

Above 1.8 million

Market Model 99.0% 98.6%

55.6K contracts Refresh

eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 Kalshi

Above $92 billion

Market Model 9.0% 9.7%

Above $91 billion

Market Model 12.0% 16.4%

57.2K contracts Refresh

Domino's total US stores in 2026 Kalshi

Above 7350

Market Model 79.0% 98.0%

Above 7375

Market Model 12.0% 75.3%

2.1K contracts Refresh

Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026 Kalshi

Above 900 thousand

Market Model 13.0% 2.7%

Above 910 thousand

Market Model 5.0% 2.7%

13.4K contracts Refresh

Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above -1%

Market Model 66.0% 67.4%

Above 0%

Market Model 44.0% 48.5%

23.9K contracts Refresh

When will Waymo announce 1 million paid rides per week? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 77.0% 79.7%

Before November

Market Model 30.0% 51.2%

17.4K contracts Refresh

Chipotle total restaurant count in 2026 Kalshi

Above 4320

Market Model 94.0% 98.8%

Above 4300

Market Model 88.0% 98.8%

20.3K contracts Refresh

Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 2026 Kalshi

Above 97.3 million

Market Model 92.0% 68.3%

Above 97.1 million

Market Model 98.0% 86.2%

74.8K contracts Refresh

Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q3 Kalshi

Above 25.6 million

Market Model 2.0% 4.0%

Above 25 million

Market Model 4.0% 14.7%

94.4K contracts Refresh

Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 Kalshi

Above 680

Market Model 4.0% 9.3%

Above 640

Market Model 55.0% 43.2%

299.0K contracts Refresh

Aritzia comparable sales growth in fiscal 2027 Kalshi

Above 24%

Market Model 35.0% 19.9%

Above 21%

Market Model 69.0% 51.2%

4.5K contracts Refresh

Aritzia comparable sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Above 30%

Market Model 50.0% 46.3%

Above 36%

Market Model 17.0% 5.3%

2.7K contracts Refresh

Amazon headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 1575000

Market Model 89.0% 26.9%

Above 1600000

Market Model 68.0% 17.9%

45.6K contracts Refresh

Air Canada passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Above 86%

Market Model 85.0% 27.1%

Above 87%

Market Model 35.0% 7.8%

6.1K contracts Refresh

Apple headcount in 2026 Kalshi

Above 172000

Market Model 29.0% 17.2%

Above 170000

Market Model 49.0% 31.2%

9.5K contracts Refresh

Clear active clear+ members in 2026 Kalshi

Above 8.7 million

Market Model 37.0% 65.7%

Above 8.6 million

Market Model 57.0% 66.6%

29.5K contracts Refresh

Tesla total production in Q3 Kalshi

Above 470000

Market Model 43.0% 40.3%

Above 460000

Market Model 61.0% 59.8%

7.6K contracts Refresh

Nu Holdings customers in 2026 Kalshi

Above 143 million

Market Model 96.0% 86.8%

Above 154 million

Market Model 7.0% 6.4%

2.0K contracts Refresh

Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3 Kalshi

Above 490 thousand

Market Model 79.0% 56.2%

Above 480 thousand

Market Model 95.0% 56.2%

44.1K contracts Refresh

Robinhood funded customers in 2026 Kalshi

Above 30.2 million

Market Model 28.0% 87.6%

Above 30 million

Market Model 33.0% 90.6%

216.0K contracts Refresh

Domino's US same store sales growth in 2026 Kalshi

Above 2.5%

Market Model 20.0% 35.2%

Above 2%

Market Model 35.0% 35.2%

3.0K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Chewy active customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 22.1 million	8.0%	5.0%	High	68	Refresh
Nvidia headcount in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 52000	40.0%	43.2%	High	64	Refresh
Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 0%	0.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 82%	82.0%	62.0%	High	63	Refresh
ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $24.4 billion	94.0%	88.0%	High	—	Refresh
Medtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 13%	9.0%	5.5%	High	61	Refresh
Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 7%	31.0%	12.0%	High	67	Refresh
GitLab customers over $100k ARR in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1645	19.0%	6.0%	High	58	Refresh
Dollar General same-store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.5%	46.0%	7.2%	High	62	Refresh
Zoom customers over $100k in TTM revenue in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4700	79.0%	20.0%	High	60	Refresh
Williams-Sonoma brand growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4%	88.0%	20.0%	High	60	Refresh
Urban Outfitters total stores in Q1 Top outcome: Above 832	84.0%	88.9%	High	60	Refresh
Urban Outfitters retail comparable sales in Q1 Top outcome: Above 0%	0.0%	0.9%	High	—	Refresh
Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q3 Top outcome: Above 5375	7.0%	14.4%	High	65	Refresh
Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 0%	52.0%	23.2%	High	61	Refresh
Dick's comparable sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2%	65.0%	65.6%	High	59	Refresh
Best Buy domestic comparable sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 5%	11.0%	18.0%	High	—	Refresh
Affirm gross merchandise volume in Q1 Top outcome: Above $14 billion	78.0%	70.0%	High	58	Refresh
Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 3.8%	56.0%	36.5%	High	63	Refresh
Monster Beverage Corporation total case sales in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.14 billion	69.0%	62.1%	High	52	Refresh
StubHub gross merchandise sales in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $10.1 billion	88.0%	20.0%	High	49	Refresh
StubHub gross merchandise sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above $2.4 billion	54.0%	58.0%	High	58	Refresh
Monster Beverage Corporation total case sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 335 million	2.0%	10.0%	High	60	Refresh
Etsy marketplace gross merchandise sales in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $11 billion	60.0%	48.7%	High	65	Refresh
Etsy Gross Merchandise Sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above $2.54 billion	80.0%	77.9%	High	61	Refresh
The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5%	43.0%	3.0%	High	—	Refresh
The Cheesecake Factory comparable restaurant sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 5.5%	84.0%	35.6%	High	72	Refresh
Cloudflare customers over $100k ARR in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5150	95.0%	97.2%	High	52	Refresh
Coeur Mining gold production in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 700000	31.0%	35.0%	High	—	Refresh
Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 8%	40.0%	45.2%	High	59	Refresh
Venture Global LNG volumes in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1860 tbtu	66.0%	20.0%	High	66	Refresh
ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above $96 billion	58.0%	0.1%	High	69	Refresh
SoFi members in Q3 Top outcome: Above 16.9 million	46.0%	56.4%	High	64	Refresh
Remitly active customers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 11.2 million	20.0%	22.0%	High	63	Refresh
Chime active members in Q3 Top outcome: Above 10.7 million	82.0%	1.0%	High	60	Refresh
BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 47400	53.0%	58.3%	High	50	Refresh
Dutch Bros total shops in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1340	29.0%	5.0%	High	60	Refresh
Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 2860	0.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2760	94.0%	2.0%	High	—	Refresh
Venture Global LNG volumes in Q3 Top outcome: Above 460 tbtu	56.0%	0.7%	High	68	Refresh
SoFi members in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 17.8 million	96.0%	20.5%	High	52	Refresh
Sezzle gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $5.25 billion	0.0%	0.7%	Med	—	Refresh
Sezzle gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $1.44 billion	7.0%	0.3%	High	60	Refresh
Remitly active customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 10.4 million	98.0%	20.0%	Med	63	Refresh
Paymentus transactions processed in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 830 million	0.0%	2.0%	High	—	Refresh
Paymentus transactions processed in Q3 Top outcome: Above 225 million	39.0%	0.1%	High	—	Refresh
Nu Holdings customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 143.5 million	29.0%	8.0%	High	—	Refresh
Natera tests processed in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4.2 million	79.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
Natera tests processed in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1025000	0.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
Neptune Insurance policies in force in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 360000	75.0%	77.5%	High	64	Refresh
Neptune Insurance policies in force in Q3 Top outcome: Above 345000	10.0%	12.0%	High	45	Refresh
Cloudflare customers over $100k ARR in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4900	86.0%	12.0%	High	—	Refresh
Lemonade total customers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.7 million	34.0%	1.0%	High	51	Refresh
Lemonade total customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.5 million	53.0%	7.8%	High	70	Refresh
Life360 monthly active users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 114 million	23.0%	12.0%	High	52	Refresh
Life360 monthly active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 107 million	60.0%	38.4%	High	61	Refresh
Klaviyo customers over $50k ARR in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4950	0.0%	0.8%	High	—	Refresh
Klaviyo customers over $50k ARR in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4875	9.0%	10.0%	High	—	Refresh
Samsara customers over $100k ARR in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 3850	0.0%	0.1%	High	—	Refresh
Grindr average paying users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.42 million	71.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
Grindr average paying users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1.46 million	43.0%	30.2%	High	62	Refresh
Evolv Technologies new customers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 265	46.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
Evolv Technologies new customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 60	69.0%	18.0%	Med	—	Refresh
Datadog customer over$100k ARR in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5140	51.0%	36.0%	High	68	Refresh
Datadog customers over $100k ARR in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4940	24.0%	12.0%	High	63	Refresh
Dave ExtraCash origination volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $9.5 billion	56.0%	0.7%	High	60	Refresh
Dave ExtraCash origination volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $2.5 billion	45.0%	67.0%	High	59	Refresh
Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1%	62.0%	1.5%	Med	61	Refresh
Chime active members in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 11.1 million	0.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
Coeur Mining gold production in Q3 Top outcome: Above 230000	5.0%	10.0%	High	60	Refresh
CAVA same restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 6.5%	41.0%	0.7%	High	—	Refresh
CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 6%	13.0%	59.2%	High	61	Refresh
BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 42.9 million	88.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q3 Top outcome: Above 11.05 million	15.0%	10.0%	High	—	Refresh
BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in Q3 Top outcome: Above 46800	0.0%	0.6%	High	—	Refresh
Dutch Bros same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 6.5%	3.0%	5.0%	High	69	Refresh
Dutch Bros same-shop sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 5%	54.0%	8.0%	High	52	Refresh
Dutch Bros total shops in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1270	61.0%	20.0%	High	59	Refresh
Hims subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.15 million	27.0%	0.3%	Med	55	Refresh
Instacart gross transaction value in Q3 Top outcome: Above $10.4 billion	79.0%	70.0%	High	69	Refresh
Instacart gross transaction value in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $42 billion	65.0%	5.0%	High	60	Refresh
eToro funded accounts in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.35 million	86.0%	9.0%	High	61	Refresh
Dick's Sporting Goods comparable store sales in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5%	33.0%	15.0%	High	67	Refresh
Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 4840	12.0%	20.0%	High	59	Refresh
Clear+ members in Q3 Top outcome: Above 8.45 million	50.0%	0.9%	High	51	Refresh
Williams-Sonoma total comparable brand growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5%	38.0%	20.0%	High	60	Refresh
Rocket Lab vehicles launched in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 33	7.0%	0.1%	High	—	Refresh
Rocket Lab vehicles launched in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4	99.0%	0.7%	Med	—	Refresh
UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 420	60.0%	20.0%	High	67	Refresh
Okta customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 5375	88.0%	0.0%	High	61	Refresh
Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 117%	6.0%	2.0%	High	—	Refresh
Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in Q3 Top outcome: Above 111%	94.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
MercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $95 billion	6.0%	0.2%	High	—	Refresh
MercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 100 million	0.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
MercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $21.5 billion	0.0%	0.1%	High	—	Refresh
MercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 91 million	92.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
Medtronic cardiovascular organic growth in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 10%	41.0%	20.0%	High	67	Refresh
Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 0.5%	56.0%	20.0%	High	70	Refresh
GitLab customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 1640	0.0%	12.0%	High	—	Refresh
eToro funded accounts in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4.5 million	55.0%	12.0%	High	68	Refresh
eBay gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $22.4 billion	99.0%	0.4%	High	—	Refresh
Dollar General same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.5%	92.0%	20.0%	High	61	Refresh
CoreWeave contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5.2 gw	29.0%	0.0%	High	—	Refresh
CoreWeave data centers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 64	81.0%	0.7%	High	69	Refresh
CoreWeave power capacity in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.4 gw	3.0%	0.3%	High	55	Refresh
CoreWeave data centers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 56	62.0%	0.0%	High	61	Refresh
Chewy active customers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 22 million	47.0%	20.0%	High	54	Refresh
Best Buy domestic comparable store sales in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 2%	35.0%	5.0%	High	59	Refresh
Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 Top outcome: Above 860	75.0%	20.0%	High	60	Refresh
Zeta super-scaled customers (>$1m) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 218	2.0%	1.0%	High	60	Refresh
Urban Outfitters comparable sales in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 5%	45.0%	20.0%	High	67	Refresh
Ulta comparable sales in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4%	65.0%	20.0%	High	—	Refresh
Ulta comparable sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.5%	19.0%	2.5%	High	62	Refresh
Toast total locations in Q3 Top outcome: Above 192 thousand	15.0%	15.0%	High	60	Refresh
Toll Brothers delivered homes in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 10500	75.0%	20.0%	High	52	Refresh
Talen Energy TWh generation in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15.5 twh	82.0%	0.2%	Med	57	Refresh
Starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 19 million	15.0%	5.0%	High	60	Refresh
Starlink active subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15 million	31.0%	7.0%	Med	60	Refresh
Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 950	43.0%	0.2%	High	—	Refresh
Sea Limited Shopee GMV in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $166 billion	41.0%	0.1%	High	60	Refresh
Sea Limited Garena paying users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 75 million	29.0%	7.0%	Med	60	Refresh
Sea Limited Garena paying users in Q4 Top outcome: Above 70 million	52.0%	20.0%	High	60	Refresh
Sea Limited Shopee GMV in Q3 Top outcome: Above $40 billion	64.0%	0.0%	High	60	Refresh
Match total payers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 13.4 million	84.0%	0.1%	High	—	Refresh
Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 0%	3.0%	3.2%	High	61	Refresh
Target comparable sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4%	61.0%	2.0%	High	65	Refresh
Petrobras total production (Mboed) in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 3250 mboed	88.0%	80.6%	High	61	Refresh
Petrobras total production (Mboed) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3300 mboed	85.0%	77.3%	High	60	Refresh
Wingstop total system-wide restaurants in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 3525	56.0%	78.4%	High	61	Refresh
Starbucks headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 368 thousand	29.0%	26.8%	High	49	Refresh
KFC same-store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2%	47.0%	3.0%	Med	50	Refresh
Target comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.5%	73.0%	10.0%	High	68	Refresh
Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 12.5%	20.0%	0.0%	High	70	Refresh
Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 Top outcome: Above 17%	1.0%	0.2%	High	64	Refresh
Reddit daily active uniques in Q3 Top outcome: Above 136 million	42.0%	0.4%	Med	51	Refresh
Ferrari shipments in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3425	21.0%	0.2%	High	69	Refresh
Palantir total customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1130	13.0%	3.0%	High	64	Refresh
Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q3 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand	70.0%	0.0%	Med	68	Refresh
Altria Group cigarette shipments in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15.5 billion	33.0%	0.2%	High	56	Refresh
Marriott International total rooms in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.86 million	64.0%	20.0%	High	48	Refresh
Marriott International total rooms in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1.84 million	21.0%	5.0%	High	56	Refresh
Lowe's comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 0.5%	55.0%	20.0%	High	62	Refresh
Robinhood event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $65 billion	47.0%	7.0%	High	67	Refresh
Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $16 billion	75.0%	20.0%	High	64	Refresh
Grab monthly transacting users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 58.5 million	7.0%	0.7%	High	—	Refresh
First Solar module volume sold in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3800 mw	95.0%	20.0%	High	67	Refresh
Coinbase monthly transacting users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 9.5 million	5.0%	0.0%	High	67	Refresh
Coinbase monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 7 million	11.0%	12.0%	High	61	Refresh
Amazon headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1.54 million	97.0%	1.0%	High	69	Refresh
Wingstop total restaurants in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3360	78.0%	65.1%	High	69	Refresh
Zeta super-scaled customers (>$1m) in 2026 Top outcome: Above 216	38.0%	37.4%	High	59	Refresh
Meta ad impressions growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 18%	5.0%	1.7%	High	61	Refresh
Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above -6%	47.0%	59.7%	High	57	Refresh
Wingstop domestic same store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2%	11.0%	5.7%	High	62	Refresh
Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16 billion	69.0%	61.1%	High	62	Refresh
Starbucks comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027 Top outcome: Above 7%	11.0%	9.0%	High	60	Refresh
Starbucks total global stores in Q1 2027 Top outcome: Above 41800	14.0%	15.0%	High	61	Refresh
Roblox hours engaged in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 140 billion	24.0%	14.7%	High	62	Refresh
Meta headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 77 thousand	4.0%	3.2%	High	62	Refresh
Meta family daily active people in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.69 billion	8.0%	38.9%	Med	—	Refresh
Robinhood gold subs in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.9 million	96.0%	93.1%	High	61	Refresh
Robinhood funded customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 29 million	14.0%	64.1%	High	63	Refresh
Futu total funded accounts in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4.4 million	7.0%	5.5%	High	46	Refresh
Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 215000	66.0%	53.6%	High	72	Refresh
Chipotle total restaurant count in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4290	20.0%	24.0%	High	63	Refresh
Chipotle comparable restaurant sales increase in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2%	38.0%	34.2%	High	60	Refresh
Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.4%	61.0%	81.3%	High	60	Refresh
Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -5%	35.0%	47.6%	High	47	Refresh
Verizon postpaid phone net additions in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 650 thousand	95.0%	97.2%	High	49	Refresh
Uber trips in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.1 billion	58.0%	51.9%	High	69	Refresh
Snap average daily active users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 492 million	77.0%	44.2%	High	59	Refresh
Snap daily active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 494 million	65.0%	41.4%	High	60	Refresh
Roblox daily active users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 170 million	10.0%	2.5%	High	57	Refresh
Roblox hours engaged in Q3 Top outcome: Above 33 billion	79.0%	95.4%	High	68	Refresh
Roblox daily active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 146 million	84.0%	23.8%	High	61	Refresh
Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 11.6 billion	91.0%	77.7%	High	67	Refresh
Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.3 billion	58.0%	60.0%	High	50	Refresh
Meta advertisement impressions growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16%	35.0%	24.7%	High	44	Refresh
Lyft total rides in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.01 billion	85.0%	82.4%	High	50	Refresh
Lyft total rides in Q3 Top outcome: Above 270 million	40.0%	18.5%	High	63	Refresh
Home Depot customer transactions in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.6 billion	2.0%	40.8%	High	62	Refresh
Home Depot customer transactions in Q3 Top outcome: Above 405 million	6.0%	3.0%	High	62	Refresh
Futu total funded accounts in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.15 million	11.0%	7.5%	High	65	Refresh
Figma paid customers >$100k arr in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 2000	40.0%	42.0%	High	59	Refresh
Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1725	93.0%	90.0%	High	61	Refresh
Duolingo paid subscribers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 14.4 million	6.0%	5.5%	High	47	Refresh
Duolingo daily active users in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 61 million	77.0%	74.0%	High	65	Refresh
Duolingo paid subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 13.9 million	8.0%	7.5%	High	49	Refresh
Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 60 million	78.0%	56.2%	High	66	Refresh
DraftKings sportsbook margin in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 6.5%	83.0%	76.6%	High	50	Refresh
DraftKings average monthly unique payers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4 million	62.0%	69.1%	High	51	Refresh
DraftKings average monthly unique payers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.6 million	88.0%	36.6%	High	60	Refresh
DraftKings sportsbook margin in Q3 Top outcome: Above 7%	64.0%	39.6%	High	47	Refresh
Taco Bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 4%	50.0%	64.2%	High	62	Refresh
KFC same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 0%	89.0%	84.4%	Med	50	Refresh
Wyndham Hotels total rooms in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 895 thousand	21.0%	47.8%	High	62	Refresh
Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q3 Top outcome: Above 325 thousand	21.0%	7.4%	High	61	Refresh
Klarna active consumers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 128 million	42.0%	60.7%	High	64	Refresh
CAVA total restaurants in Q3 Top outcome: Above 494	86.0%	47.6%	High	62	Refresh
American Express cards-in-force in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 162 million	4.0%	9.4%	Med	54	Refresh
Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q3 Top outcome: Above 882 thousand	34.0%	25.9%	High	51	Refresh
Spotify premium subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 304 million	70.0%	78.0%	High	61	Refresh
Spotify monthly active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 802 million	16.0%	9.0%	High	62	Refresh
Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $470 billion	85.0%	90.0%	High	66	Refresh
Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $122 billion	24.0%	10.5%	High	68	Refresh
McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 47000	84.0%	89.9%	High	61	Refresh
McDonald's comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 3%	39.0%	28.0%	High	63	Refresh
McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q3 2026 Top outcome: Above 46700	25.0%	45.8%	Med	61	Refresh
McDonald's Corporation global comparable sales growth in Q3 2026 Top outcome: Above 2.5%	27.0%	38.3%	High	62	Refresh
Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $225	84.0%	78.0%	High	73	Refresh
Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q3 Top outcome: Above 57.5 million	39.0%	22.5%	High	60	Refresh
Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q3 Top outcome: Above $185	99.0%	97.2%	High	68	Refresh
Klarna active klarna consumers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 123 million	52.0%	62.0%	High	62	Refresh
Robinhood gold subscribers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5.2 million	68.0%	35.0%	High	64	Refresh
Google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 12%	25.0%	27.6%	High	64	Refresh
Google search paid clicks change in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15%	32.0%	24.0%	High	64	Refresh
Disney domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1%	48.0%	26.1%	High	65	Refresh
DoorDash total orders in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.9 billion	60.0%	71.2%	High	64	Refresh
DoorDash total orders in Q3 Top outcome: Above 990 million	56.0%	61.0%	High	65	Refresh
Chipotle headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 110 thousand	76.0%	89.9%	High	50	Refresh
CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 520	46.0%	15.0%	High	61	Refresh
Webull funded accounts in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5.35 million	29.0%	30.6%	High	67	Refresh
Webull funded accounts in Q3 Top outcome: Above 5.35 million	13.0%	17.5%	Med	56	Refresh
Airbnb Inc. nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 600 million	4.0%	10.4%	High	50	Refresh
Airbnb bookings in Q3 Top outcome: Above 146 million	62.0%	34.4%	High	61	Refresh
Lockheed Martin headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 124 thousand	37.0%	16.0%	High	62	Refresh
Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 130	73.0%	58.1%	High	51	Refresh
Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 35	59.0%	57.4%	High	57	Refresh
Intel headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 80 thousand	70.0%	73.6%	High	62	Refresh
Google headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 204 thousand	75.0%	48.0%	High	62	Refresh
American Express headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 76 thousand	72.0%	63.0%	High	59	Refresh
American Express cards-in-force in Q3 Top outcome: Above 157 million	4.0%	43.9%	High	70	Refresh
Alaska Air passenger load factor in Q3 Top outcome: Above 84%	34.0%	47.6%	High	62	Refresh
American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3 Top outcome: Above 84%	86.0%	70.1%	High	66	Refresh
American Airlines passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 82%	94.0%	94.5%	High	69	Refresh
Talen Energy TWh generation in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 50 TWh	99.0%	94.3%	High	48	Refresh
Charles Schwab active brokerage accounts in Q3 Top outcome: Above 41 million	4.0%	7.8%	High	66	Refresh
First Solar Gigawatts sold in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 17.4 GW	63.0%	67.0%	High	67	Refresh
Domino's US same store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2%	45.0%	52.2%	High	59	Refresh
Wingstop US same store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -2%	44.0%	81.7%	High	57	Refresh
Domino's total US stores in Q3 Top outcome: Above 7280	7.0%	23.4%	High	73	Refresh
United Airlines passengers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 50.5 million	37.0%	0.5%	High	64	Refresh
Dollarama comparable store sales growth in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 6%	18.0%	8.6%	High	65	Refresh
Boeing commercial deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 168	5.0%	94.0%	High	60	Refresh
Loblaw food retail same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 2%	79.0%	85.3%	High	60	Refresh
United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 186 million	80.0%	51.6%	High	68	Refresh
Tesla total production in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.9 million	10.0%	9.0%	High	63	Refresh
Tesla headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 130000	84.0%	81.9%	High	65	Refresh
Tesla total deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.75 million	75.0%	28.6%	High	67	Refresh
Tesla total deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 500000	16.0%	38.9%	Med	64	Refresh
Toast total locations in 2026 Top outcome: Above 198 thousand	33.0%	28.5%	High	56	Refresh
How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026? Top outcome: Above 1000	27.0%	47.6%	High	68	Refresh
How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter	63.0%	96.5%	High	73	Refresh
How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter	52.0%	50.4%	High	71	Refresh
Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average? Top outcome: 4.19 million	56.0%	27.1%	High	74	Refresh
Constellation Brands Beer Shipments in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 425 million	38.0%	26.7%	High	—	Refresh
Constellation Brands total beer shipments in Q2 Top outcome: Above 120 million	44.0%	32.4%	High	66	Refresh
Spotify premium subscribers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 316 million	9.0%	27.0%	High	63	Refresh
Spotify total monthly active users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 800 million	97.0%	91.0%	High	52	Refresh
Spotify headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 7300	33.0%	3.6%	High	—	Refresh
Charles Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts in 2026 Top outcome: Above 41 million	31.0%	21.0%	High	61	Refresh
Starbucks total global stores in 2026 Top outcome: Above 41800	78.0%	2.0%	High	63	Refresh
Starbucks comparable transactions growth in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3%	76.0%	83.0%	High	65	Refresh
Rivian total vehicles delivered in 2026 Top outcome: Above 46000	86.0%	86.1%	High	62	Refresh
Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q3 Top outcome: Above 13500	95.0%	66.6%	High	69	Refresh
Reddit daily active uniques in 2026 Top outcome: Above 138 million	83.0%	75.8%	High	60	Refresh
Ferrari total car shipments in 2026 Top outcome: Above 13900	18.0%	7.9%	High	61	Refresh
Palantir total customer count in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1100	87.0%	90.7%	High	66	Refresh
Oracle headcount in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 160000	11.0%	5.1%	High	60	Refresh
Netflix headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 17500	40.0%	59.1%	High	65	Refresh
Norwegian Cruise passengers carried in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.25 million	88.0%	88.1%	High	68	Refresh
Match total payers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 13.8 million	12.0%	3.0%	High	63	Refresh
Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026 Top outcome: Above 54.5 billion	93.0%	62.3%	High	63	Refresh
Meta headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 65000	86.0%	85.7%	High	62	Refresh
Meta family daily active people in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.72 billion	64.0%	53.3%	High	60	Refresh
MercadoLibre items sold in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.6 billion	12.0%	10.5%	High	69	Refresh
Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 227 million	59.0%	65.0%	High	46	Refresh
Lululemon Americas comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -6%	35.0%	34.3%	High	65	Refresh
Intel headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 78000	80.0%	72.0%	High	62	Refresh
Hims subscribers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2.84 million	94.0%	94.0%	Med	60	Refresh
Grab monthly transacting users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 62 million	14.0%	4.2%	High	62	Refresh
Google headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 208000	28.0%	2.7%	High	62	Refresh
Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2 million	80.0%	56.2%	High	65	Refresh
eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above $92 billion	9.0%	9.7%	High	67	Refresh
Domino's total US stores in 2026 Top outcome: Above 7350	79.0%	98.0%	High	59	Refresh
Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand	13.0%	2.7%	High	59	Refresh
Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -1%	66.0%	67.4%	High	65	Refresh
When will Waymo announce 1 million paid rides per week? Top outcome: Before 2027	77.0%	79.7%	High	69	Refresh
Chipotle total restaurant count in 2026 Top outcome: Above 4320	94.0%	98.8%	High	59	Refresh
Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 2026 Top outcome: Above 97.3 million	92.0%	68.3%	High	72	Refresh
Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q3 Top outcome: Above 25.6 million	2.0%	4.0%	High	71	Refresh
Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 680	4.0%	9.3%	High	70	Refresh
Aritzia comparable sales growth in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 24%	35.0%	19.9%	High	57	Refresh
Aritzia comparable sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 30%	50.0%	46.3%	High	62	Refresh
Amazon headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1575000	89.0%	26.9%	High	67	Refresh
Air Canada passenger load factor in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 86%	85.0%	27.1%	Med	58	Refresh
Apple headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 172000	29.0%	17.2%	High	61	Refresh
Clear active clear+ members in 2026 Top outcome: Above 8.7 million	37.0%	65.7%	High	70	Refresh
Tesla total production in Q3 Top outcome: Above 470000	43.0%	40.3%	High	68	Refresh
Nu Holdings customers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 143 million	96.0%	86.8%	High	57	Refresh
Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 490 thousand	79.0%	56.2%	High	63	Refresh
Robinhood funded customers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 30.2 million	28.0%	87.6%	High	67	Refresh
Domino's US same store sales growth in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2.5%	20.0%	35.2%	High	61	Refresh

Expired Markets (104)

Ford US total vehicles sales in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

91.3K contracts

FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Constellation Brands Beer Shipments in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.6K contracts

Best Buy domestic comparable store sales in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.0K contracts

Lowe's customer transactions in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

25.2K contracts

Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.0K contracts

Target transactions change in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

24.3K contracts

Home Depot customer transactions in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.3K contracts

Samsara customers over $100k ARR in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

136 contracts

ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

44.7K contracts

Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$1.6K

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above __? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$2.5K

Will Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 AI revenue be above __? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$4.8K

Walmart (WMT) Q2 US eCommerce sales growth __? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$6.3K

NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP)? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$4.7K

Zscaler customers with arr of at least $1m in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

35 contracts

Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue above $1 million in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Lowe's Customer Transactions in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Futu total funded accounts in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

38.0K contracts

Medtronic cardiovascular organic growth in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

6.7K contracts

Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.3K contracts

Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.9K contracts

Williams-Sonoma brand growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.3K contracts

Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.8K contracts

UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1 contracts

Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

674 contracts

GitLab customers with arr over $100k in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6K contracts

Dollar General same-store sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

4.9K contracts

Chewy active customers in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

34.5K contracts

Affirm gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6K contracts

Urban Outfitters comparable sales in Q3 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

421 contracts

Futu total funded accounts in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

17.3K contracts

Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.1K contracts

Urban Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Target Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.2K contracts

Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Sweetgreen Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

200 contracts

McDonald's Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22 contracts

Lululemon Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Lowe's Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

653 contracts

Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.4K contracts

Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Costco Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Chipotle Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Cava Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Burger King Monthly Foot Traffic in August Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Webull Funded Accounts in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Walmart Foot Traffic in July Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

17.0K contracts

Starbucks Foot Traffic in July Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

17.0K contracts

Domino's Foot Traffic in July Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.9K contracts

Lululemon Americas comparable sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

28.7K contracts

Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.0K contracts

Urban Outfitters total stores in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.5K contracts

Ulta transactions growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.4K contracts

Toll Brothers delivered homes in Q3 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

18.9K contracts

Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q2 2027 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

12.6K contracts

Sea Garena paying users in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

35.8K contracts

Charles Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

166.7K contracts

Rivian Automotive Inc. total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026 Kalshi

Above 11500

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

Above 12000

Market Model 0.0% 20.0%

0 contracts

Zyn US shipment volume in 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.9K contracts

Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

31.1K contracts

Klarna active consumers in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

33.6K contracts

Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

93.0K contracts

Domino's total US stores in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.0K contracts

Dollarama comparable store sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

53.2K contracts

Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

120.7K contracts

Coinbase monthly transacting users in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

24.1K contracts

CAVA restaurants in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

85.7K contracts

CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

29.3K contracts

Boeing Deliveries in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

146.2K contracts

Tesla deliveries in Q3 Kalshi

Above 400000

Market Model 87.0% 99.2%

Above 380000

Market Model 89.0% 99.4%

361 contracts

Air Canada passenger load factor in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

73.2K contracts

Nu Holdings customers in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

60.7K contracts

Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

63.8K contracts

Webull funded accounts in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.2K contracts

Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

120.3K contracts

Hims subscribers in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

8.0K contracts

Airbnb bookings in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

232.7K contracts

CAVA restaurants in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

82.0K contracts

Match total payers in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

131.5K contracts

Palantir total customers in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

62.8K contracts

Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.9K contracts

Marriott total rooms in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.5K contracts

Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.1K contracts

Lyft total rides in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

190.6K contracts

Ferrari total shipments in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

150.5K contracts

Roku Inc. hours streamed in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.3K contracts

Altria cigarette shipments in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.1K contracts

Uber Trips in Q1? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

342.5K contracts

Roblox hours engaged in Q1 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

23.8K contracts

Robinhood gold subscribers in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

225.9K contracts

Meta headcount in Q1? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

500.6K contracts

Zyn US shipment volume in Q1 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

146.2K contracts

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

546.6K contracts

DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

67.9K contracts

Coinbase trading volume in Q4? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

357.8K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Ford US total vehicles sales in Q2	—	—	High	—
FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4	—	—	High	—
Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q2	—	—	High	—
Constellation Brands Beer Shipments in Q1	—	—	High	—
Best Buy domestic comparable store sales in Q2	—	—	High	—
Lowe's customer transactions in Q2	—	—	High	—
Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2	—	—	High	—
Target transactions change in Q2	—	—	High	—
Home Depot customer transactions in Q2	—	—	High	—
Samsara customers over $100k ARR in Q2	—	—	High	—
ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q2	—	—	Med	—
Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth?	—	—	High	—
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above __?	—	—	High	—
Will Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 AI revenue be above __?	—	—	High	—
Walmart (WMT) Q2 US eCommerce sales growth __?	—	—	High	—
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP)?	—	—	High	—
Zscaler customers with arr of at least $1m in fiscal 2026	—	—	High	—
Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue above $1 million in Q1	—	—	High	—
Lowe's Customer Transactions in Q1	—	—	High	—
Futu total funded accounts in Q1	—	—	High	—
Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q2	—	—	High	—
Medtronic cardiovascular organic growth in Q1	—	—	High	—
Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2	—	—	High	—
Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in Q2	—	—	Med	—
Williams-Sonoma brand growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q2	—	—	High	—
Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q2	—	—	High	—
GitLab customers with arr over $100k in Q2	—	—	High	—
Dollar General same-store sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Chewy active customers in Q2	—	—	High	—
Affirm gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026	—	—	High	—
Urban Outfitters comparable sales in Q3	—	—	High	—
Futu total funded accounts in Q2	—	—	High	—
Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Urban Outfitters Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Target Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Sweetgreen Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	Med	—
McDonald's Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Lululemon Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Lowe's Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Costco Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Chipotle Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend in August	—	—	High	—
Cava Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Dutch Bros Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Burger King Monthly Foot Traffic in August	—	—	High	—
Webull Funded Accounts in Q1	—	—	High	—
Walmart Foot Traffic in July	—	—	High	—
Starbucks Foot Traffic in July	—	—	High	—
Domino's Foot Traffic in July	—	—	Med	—
Lululemon Americas comparable sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q2	—	—	High	—
Urban Outfitters total stores in Q2	—	—	High	—
Ulta transactions growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Toll Brothers delivered homes in Q3	—	—	High	—
Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q2 2027	—	—	High	—
Sea Garena paying users in Q2	—	—	High	—
Charles Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts in Q2	—	—	High	—
Rivian Automotive Inc. total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026 Top outcome: Above 11500	0.0%	20.0%	High	—
Zyn US shipment volume in 2026	—	—	High	—
Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q2	—	—	High	—
Klarna active consumers in Q2	—	—	High	—
Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2	—	—	High	—
Domino's total US stores in Q2	—	—	High	—
Dollarama comparable store sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Coinbase monthly transacting users in Q2	—	—	High	—
CAVA restaurants in Q2	—	—	High	—
CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2	—	—	High	—
Boeing Deliveries in Q2	—	—	High	—
Tesla deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 400000	87.0%	99.2%	High	—
Air Canada passenger load factor in Q2	—	—	High	—
Nu Holdings customers in Q2	—	—	High	—
Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q2	—	—	High	—
Webull funded accounts in Q2	—	—	High	—
Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q2	—	—	High	—
Hims subscribers in Q1	—	—	High	—
Airbnb bookings in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
CAVA restaurants in Q1	—	—	High	—
Match total payers in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Palantir total customers in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1	—	—	High	—
Marriott total rooms in Q1	—	—	High	—
Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q1	—	—	High	—
Lyft total rides in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Ferrari total shipments in Q1 2026	—	—	Med	—
Roku Inc. hours streamed in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Altria cigarette shipments in Q1	—	—	High	—
Uber Trips in Q1?	—	—	High	—
Roblox hours engaged in Q1	—	—	High	—
Robinhood gold subscribers in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Meta headcount in Q1?	—	—	High	—
Zyn US shipment volume in Q1 2026	—	—	High	—
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?	—	—	Med	—
DoorDash Total Orders in Q4?	—	—	Med	—
Coinbase trading volume in Q4?	—	—	Med	—

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