Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect CoreWeave data centers to be Above 62 in fiscal 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement. The contract opened on August 7, 2026, at a 1.0% probability and was repriced to 93.0% on the same day. The price has since held steady at this level. This immediate spike suggests the market instantly absorbed and reflected pre-existing public information rather than reacting to new developments.
The catalyst for this repricing appears to be publicly available data on CoreWeave's existing infrastructure. Reports from earlier in the year stated the company operated 49 data centers as of March 31, 2026, with significant expansion underway. This information makes a "YES" resolution on a high data center count for fiscal 2026 a near certainty, justifying the jump to a high-conviction price. The market effectively opened mispriced relative to known facts.
Despite the definitive price level, total traded volume is zero. This indicates the price reflects the bids and asks of market participants on the order book, not prices established through executed trades. The 93.0% level represents a ceiling where sellers are present, but the lack of trading volume shows conviction has not been tested with capital. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly confident in a "YES" outcome, but the market itself is illiquid.
  • The highest data center thresholds appear unlikely, with the Dalton, GA project shifting to 2027.
  • CoreWeave secured over $20 billion, but European expansion faces significant regulatory challenges.
  • Substantial financing supports the 1.7 GW active power capacity target for year-end 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 64 81.0% 0.7% Market higher by 80.3pp
Above 66 58.0% 0.6% Market higher by 57.4pp
Above 62 85.0% 0.8% Market higher by 84.2pp
Above 68 0.0% 0.5% Model higher by 0.5pp
Above 70 0.0% 0.4% Model higher by 0.4pp

Current Context

CoreWeave expanded its global data center footprint and power capacity significantly in 2026. As of March 31, 2026, the company operated 49 data centers worldwide with over 1 GW of active power and 3.5 GW of total contracted power [1][2][3]. CoreWeave targets over 1.7 GW of active power by year-end 2026 and aims for 8 GW capacity by 2030 [1][4][5][6]. The company expanded into the Asia-Pacific market, planning 360 MW capacity in Indonesia by 2028 [3][7]. Additionally, CoreWeave formed strategic collaborations with Leidos for government and defense missions and Solidigm for enterprise storage [3][8]. The "CoreWeave Wind Tunnel" is unrelated to its data center operations [9][10][11].
CoreWeave reported strong revenue growth in Q1 2026, alongside substantial capital expenditures. Q1 2026 revenue reached $2.08 billion, a 112% increase year-over-year, supported by a revenue backlog of approximately $99.4 billion [1][12][2][5]. The company anticipates 2026 capital expenditures between $31 billion and $35 billion, doubling from 2025 levels to support its expansion goals [1][4][5]. This rapid growth strategy is debt-intensive; CoreWeave reported a net loss of $740 million in Q1 2026, reflecting significant ongoing capital requirements [6][5].
Sources (12)
  1. 1CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  2. 2CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  3. 3CoreWeave expands cloud AI platform to Indonesia, marking first move into Asia-Pacific region - TNGlobaltechnode.global
  4. 4CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  5. 5CoreWeave Revenue Doubled. The Capex Bill Is Even Bigger | TIKR.comtikr.com
  6. 6CoreWeave Q1 2026 Earnings Review - Finseefinsee.ai
  7. 7https://www.coreweave.com/news/coreweave-expands-cloud-ai-platform-to-indonesia-marking-first-move-into-asia-pacific-regioncoreweave.com
  8. 8CoreWeave - Leidos and CoreWeave Collaborate to Accelerate Delivery of AI Capabilities for Defense, National Security and Intelligence Missionsinvestors.coreweave.com
  9. 9ESPN.com - 'Spectacular' but 'four months behind'? Aston Martin are an F1 2026 wildcardespn.com
  10. 10'Spectacular' but 'four months behind'? Aston Martin are an F1 2026 wildcard - ESPNafrica.espn.com
  11. 11'Spectacular' but 'four months behind'? Aston Martin are an F1 2026...espn.com
  12. 12CoreWeave: Fiscal 1Q26 Financial Results - StorageNewsletterstoragenewsletter.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 07, 2026: 84.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 85.0%

Outcome: Above 64

What happened: The provided research indicates that the reported "84.0 percentage point spike" on August 7, 2026, is a misattribution and is not linked to the CoreWeave data center prediction market for fiscal 2026 [1]. Instead, this figure appears in contexts such as sports betting or other entities' financial reports [1]. As there is no evidence of such a price movement occurring in the specified CoreWeave market, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity, based on the provided information.
Sources (1)
  1. 1Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of July 27 2026? — 19% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves to YES if CoreWeave operates more than 68 data centers in fiscal 2026, and resolves to NO if they operate 68 or fewer data centers in fiscal 2026. Trading for the market ends on February 25, 4:00 PM EST. The maximum payout date for this contract is May 26, 2027, with no special settlement conditions explicitly stated beyond the data center count.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 62 $0.86 $0.19 85%
Above 64 $0.74 $0.35 81%
Above 66 $0.58 $0.51 58%
Above 68 $0.46 $0.63 0%
Above 70 $0.31 $0.78 0%
Above 72 $0.17 $0.92 0%

Market Discussion

CoreWeave has guided for annual revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion in fiscal 2026, with an annualized run rate revenue projection of $17 billion to $19 billion by year-end 2026, alongside plans to achieve over 1.7 GW of active power capacity by year-end [1][2][3][4][5]. Full-year 2026 capital expenditure is projected between $31 billion and $35 billion to fund aggressive data center expansion [4][5][6]. Trader and market discussion is polarized, with some emphasizing the nearly $100 billion revenue backlog as of Q1 2026 and early-mover advantage, while others express concerns over high leverage, negative free cash flow, and credit risk associated with its rapid, debt-funded expansion [1][7][8][9][10][11].

Sources (11)
  1. 1CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2CoreWeave tops $5 billion in revenue for 2025, projects more hypergrowth 2026, 2027 | Constellation Researchbit.ly
  3. 3CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
  4. 4CoreWeave Revenue Doubled. The Capex Bill Is Even Bigger | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  6. 6CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  7. 7CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
  8. 8CoreWeave Stock Tumbles On Capex Bump, Soft Guidance: Retail Undeterredstocktwits.com
  9. 9CoreWeave’s Near Debt Debacle, Jane Street and Fitch’s Curiously Timed Jane Street Upgraderoddubitsky.substack.com
  10. 10CoreWeave just demonstrated that the price of AI infrastructure debt is rising as the markets comes to grips with the magnitude and risks from the surge in capex. | Orlando Gemeslinkedin.com
  11. 11CoreWeave Stock (CRWV) Opinions on Recent Market Retracementquiverquant.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 68 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score49High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score68Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
94Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
62Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

3 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 6262
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 64—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 66—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
78Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

3 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 6676
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Above 6479
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Above 62—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 62100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 64100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 66100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
49High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 62 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 2.5c slippage (~3% of a 83.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 6262Market scoreLiquidity62Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 62
Liquidity
62 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 64–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality79Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
79 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 66–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality76Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
76 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 21, 2026

6. How will CoreWeave's Q2 and Q3 2026 financing efforts affect its ability to fund its projected $31-$35 billion in capital expenditures for data center expansion?

2026 Capital Expenditure Target$31-$35 billion [1][2][3]
Capital Secured Year-to-Date (Q2/Q3 2026)Over $20 billion [4][1][2][5]
Active Power Capacity Target (End 2026)Over 1.7 gigawatts [1][2][3]
CoreWeave's Q2 and Q3 2026 financing efforts secured over $20 billion. This debt and equity capital provides necessary liquidity to fund its projected $31-$35 billion capital expenditure target for 2026 [4][1][2][5]. This substantial investment is critical for scaling its AI infrastructure, aiming to double its active power capacity to over 1.7 gigawatts by year-end 2026 [1][2][3]. Key funding initiatives include a $2.3 billion facility and a $3.1 billion delayed-draw term loan (DDTL) facility, both secured in May, alongside a $2.6 billion first-lien delayed-draw term loan in July [4][6][7].
This aggressive financing strategy introduces increased leverage and higher borrowing costs [4][1][2][5]. CoreWeave projects its interest expense to rise significantly, reaching $650-$730 million in Q2 2026 [4][8]. Additionally, the company faces tighter covenant requirements, such as maintaining a 1.35x debt-service coverage ratio [4][8]. These factors highlight the financial commitments associated with CoreWeave's rapid expansion plans.
Sources (8)
  1. 1CoreWeave Guides $31-$35B Capex for 2026: Fuel or Financial...theglobeandmail.com
  2. 2CoreWeave projects massive capital spending of $30-$35 billion in 2026 to double its AI infrastructure capacityeciks.org
  3. 3CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  4. 4CoreWeave Secures $2.6 B First‑Lien Delayed‑Draw Term Loan to Fund Aggressive 2026 Capex - CRWV News - EveryTickereveryticker.com
  5. 5CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  6. 6Coreweave, Inc. current report, Q2 FY2026 (NASDAQ:CRWV) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  7. 7$2.3 Billion Debt Financing Facility | CoreWeavecoreweave.com
  8. 8CoreWeave Earnings Spotlight Capex And Debt | InsiderFinanceinsiderfinance.io

7. What is the average power capacity (in MW) of CoreWeave's new data centers planned for 2026, and how many facilities does this imply are needed to meet the year-end target of 1.7 GW active power?

Average capacity per site20-25 MW (implied, Q1 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Total active powerOver 1 GW (by end of Q1 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Active power goalMore than 1.7 GW (by year-end 2026) [1][5][6][7][3][8]
CoreWeave's average facility power capacity for 2026 is not specified. CoreWeave has not publicly stated a precise average megawatt (MW) per facility for 2026. However, based on its operation of approximately 49 data centers to reach over 1 gigawatt (GW) of active power by the end of Q1 2026, the implied average capacity per site is roughly 20-25 MW [4][1][2][3].
CoreWeave needs significant new capacity to meet its 2026 target. To meet its year-end 2026 goal of more than 1.7 GW of active power capacity, CoreWeave needs to add approximately 700 MW of net new capacity from its 1 GW baseline [1][5][6][7][3][8]. Assuming a similar average capacity per facility, this implies the need for roughly 30-35 additional data centers or the expansion of existing ones [1][2][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  2. 2CoreWeave (CRWV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
  4. 4CoreWeave plans to launch 360MW of data center capacity in...datacenterdynamics.com
  5. 5CRWV Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
  6. 6CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
  7. 7CoreWeave CFO says co expects to double active capacity to more than 1.7 GW by year end | MarketScreener Australiaau.marketscreener.com
  8. 8CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

8. How does CoreWeave's projected 2026 data center completion rate compare to the announced expansion plans of hyperscale competitors like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud?

CoreWeave 2026 Leased Capacity Completion Target85-90% of 590 MW [1][2][3][4][5][6]
CoreWeave 2026 Projected Capital Expenditure$31-35 billion [7][8][9]
AWS 2026 Capital Expenditure Guidance~$105 billion [10][11][12]
CoreWeave projects significant data center expansion by the end of 2026. The company targets an estimated completion rate of approximately 85% to 90% of its announced 590 MW of leased customer power capacity by year-end 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Specific sites already fully handed over include Marble, NC (65 MW) and Austin, TX (20 MW). Projects in Muskogee, OK (70 MW) and Denton, TX (260 MW) are on track for mid-2026 completion, while Dalton, GA (175 MW) is projected for early 2027 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. CoreWeave had surpassed 1 GW of active data center capacity as of July 2026 and is on track to reach 1.7 GW by the close of 2026 [7][8][13]. The company's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $31 billion and $35 billion, primarily dedicated to fulfilling existing take-or-pay customer contracts [7][8][9].
Hyperscale competitors operate at a much larger scale with broader strategies. A direct comparison of 2026 completion percentages for Amazon Web Services (AWS) or Google Cloud is not publicly available, as their announcements typically outline multi-year capacity expansions [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These hyperscale competitors maintain a vastly larger operational scale, with AWS and Google Cloud's 2026 capital expenditure guidance being approximately $105 billion and $75 billion (Alphabet total) respectively [10][11][12]. AWS currently operates around 14.1 GW of tracked capacity, and Google Cloud approximately 9.0 GW [10][11][12]. CoreWeave distinguishes itself as a specialized "neocloud" provider focusing on high-performance AI workloads, often partnering with hyperscalers rather than directly competing in general-purpose cloud services [14][13]. This model enables CoreWeave to rapidly deploy niche infrastructure to meet specific customer contracts, whereas hyperscalers leverage their immense scale and breadth for diverse enterprise needs and make broader, more speculative investments in AI infrastructure [14][13][7][8][9].
Sources (14)
  1. 1www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  2. 2247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  8. 8CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030...datacenterdynamics.com
  9. 9Why CoreWeave Is Spending $30 Billion on CapEx in 2026 and Why That Is Actually Bullishkalkine.com
  10. 10Google vs Amazon Web Services AI Data Centers (2026) — Side-by-Side Comparisonaidatacenterindex.com
  11. 11Hyperscaler Data Center Capex 2026: AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta | Buildermusebuildermuse.com
  12. 12Google Cloud vs. AWS: Who Wins the AI Infrastructure War? – USA Business Timesusabusinesstimes.com
  13. 13CoreWeave's stock drops on mixed results and plans to scale up AI spending - SiliconANGLEsiliconangle.com
  14. 14CoreWeave vs Hyperscalers: Why It Is Not a Competition but a Partnershipkalkine.com

9. What public records, such as local construction permits or reports from data center real estate firms like JLL and Cushman & Wakefield, are available to track CoreWeave's project progress in fiscal 2026?

Tracking Public RecordsLocal permit filings, tax abatement agreements, specialized industry platforms [1][2][3][4][5]
Industry Data Center Cost$11.3M/MW in 2026 [6][7][8][9][10]
CoreWeave Data Center CapacitySurpassing 1GW [11][12]
CoreWeave's project progress for fiscal 2026 can be monitored through various public records. These include local construction permit filings, which are accessible on state platforms such as the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation's TABS portal [1][2], and tax abatement agreements [1]. Specialized industry platforms, including datacenter.fyi and Buildermuse, provide aggregated information on CoreWeave's data center facilities, permits, site status, and power capacity details for projects filed in 2026 [1][3][4][5]. Additionally, insights into progress can be gleaned from filings by third-party data center providers, exemplified by Core Scientific's Q2 2026 slides, which offer visibility into contracted power capacity and expansion timelines relevant to CoreWeave's operations [13].
CoreWeave's announcements detail capacity milestones, while market reports offer context. The company itself provides updates on its project progress through official announcements, such as their Fiscal 1Q26 Financial Results or declarations of milestones like surpassing 1GW of data center capacity [11][12]. While general industry reports from real estate firms like JLL provide valuable macroeconomic context and cost benchmarks, for instance, an average of $11.3M/MW for data center construction in 2026 [6][7][8][10], these reports typically do not offer project-level progress for specific private companies such as CoreWeave [6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (13)
  1. 1CoreWeave, LLC - Fort Stockton, TX | datacenter.fyidatacenter.fyi
  2. 2TDLR TABS - Project Detailstdlr.texas.gov
  3. 3CoreWeave Data Center Facilities, Permits & Public Records | datacenter.fyidatacenter.fyi
  4. 4Tracking Every Data Center Permit Filed in 2026 — A Running List | Buildermusebuildermuse.com
  5. 5AI cloud company CoreWeave to fill $440M Cedar Creek data center | Bastrop - Cedar Creek | Community Impactcommunityimpact.com
  6. 6JLL 2026 Global Data Center Outlookjll.com
  7. 72026 Global Data Center Outlookjll.com
  8. 8The 2026 Data Center Construction Industry Report | ConstructionBids.aiconstructionbids.ai
  9. 9How Neoclouds Are Pre-Booking 2026-27 Capacity: Lambda, CoreWeave, Nebius, and the Reservation Stack - DEV Communitydev.to
  10. 10Global data center sector to nearly double to 200GW amid AI infrastructure boomjll.com
  11. 11CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  12. 12CoreWeave: Fiscal 1Q26 Financial Results - StorageNewsletterstoragenewsletter.com
  13. 13Core Scientific Q2 2026 slides: $24B+ contracts, AMD deal expansion By Investingza.investing.com

10. Which specific geographies in CoreWeave's 2026 global expansion plan present the most significant regulatory or supply chain risks that could delay new data center openings?

Scotland Project Value£8.2 billion (North Lanarkshire, Scotland) [1]
2026 Capex Plan$31B-$35B (2026) [2][3]
Highest Regulatory RiskSweden and other European markets [4][5]
CoreWeave’s European expansion faces substantial regulatory, power, and supply chain challenges. New data center openings in Sweden and the broader European region are particularly susceptible to delays from local approvals, energy policy, and environmental requirements [4][5]. CoreWeave's SEC filings underscore its reliance on governments and regulators to secure adequate power and suitable sites, noting that power availability is a critical limiting factor for AI data centers across Europe, potentially restricting growth opportunities [1]. The £8.2 billion AI data center project in North Lanarkshire, Scotland, exemplifies these hurdles, encountering significant regulatory and operational issues concerning unresolved power provision, which could impact national energy distribution and local electricity costs [1].
Expansion into Indonesia introduces unique operational and site-specific supply chain complexities. This marks CoreWeave’s transition to owning and operating facilities in an unfamiliar regulatory environment, posing new operational, execution, and supply chain risks [6][7]. Furthermore, any expansion into new regions beyond CoreWeave’s current North America and Europe footprint carries high uncertainty, requiring establishment of new regulatory approvals, power procurement, and infrastructure development from the ground up [4][5][1]. Overall, CoreWeave's ambitious capital expenditure plan, targeting $31 billion to $35 billion for 2026, is vulnerable to global trade controls, fluctuations in memory chip prices, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties, all of which could disrupt the delivery timeline for data centers scheduled for 2026 [2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1CoreWeave's £8.2B AI datacentre in Scotland faces power supply concernscryptobriefing.com
  2. 2crwv-20260331 - SEC.govsec.gov
  3. 3crwv-20251231 - SEC.govsec.gov
  4. 4www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  5. 5www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  6. 6CoreWeave expands cloud AI platform to Indonesia, marking first move into Asia-Pacific region - TNGlobaltechnode.global
  7. 7CoreWeave's 5GW-by-2030 buildout is a bid for hyperscale-class AI capacity-if it can finance and power it — Silicon Reportsiliconreport.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

CoreWeave plans to double its active power capacity from 850 MW at the end of 2025 to over 1.7 GW by the end of 2026, aiming for 5 GW of data center capacity by 2030 [1][2][3]. The company anticipates 2026 capital expenditures to double compared to 2025, reaching between $30 billion and $35 billion to fuel infrastructure buildout [1][3][4]. CoreWeave reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion, representing ~140% year-over-year growth, with a year-end annualized run rate projected to reach $17 billion to $19 billion [5][6][2][7].
Key market catalysts for Q3 2026 include CoreWeave's Q2 earnings release on August 11 [8][7][9]. Investors will monitor margin expansion, backlog conversion rates, and the impact of the $2.8 billion NVIDIA contract on profitability [8][7][9]. Bullish factors include a $99.4 billion revenue backlog, priority GPU access, and strong AI demand [8][7][9]. Bearish risks involve $32.9 billion net debt, negative free cash flow, customer concentration (e.g., Meta, OpenAI), and exposure to construction delay litigation [8][7][9].
The regulatory environment for prediction markets in 2026 features federal court contradictions regarding state regulatory powers and ongoing CFTC efforts to implement guardrails against manipulation, supported by entities like the NFL [10]. Data center moratoriums, such as in New York, present a broader market risk [11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 26, 2027
  • Closes: May 26, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  2. 2CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
  3. 3CoreWeave's stock drops on mixed results and plans to scale up AI spending - SiliconANGLEsiliconangle.com
  4. 4CoreWeave Revenue Doubled. The Capex Bill Is Even Bigger | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  6. 6CoreWeave reaffirms $12B-$13B 2026 revenue outlook while lifting 2026 exit run rate floor to $18B (NASDAQ:CRWV) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  7. 7Piper Sandler Sees 64% Upside For CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) Despite 33% Three-Month Slideforeignpolicyjournal.com
  8. 8Coreweave at $92: The Compelling Bull Case On Offer Right Now - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  9. 9CoreWeave Q2 Earnings August 11: AI Cloud Previewtechjacksolutions.com
  10. 10Future is unpredictable for prediction markets as courts add to confusion - ESPNespn.com
  11. 11The AI Selloff Doesn't Match the Data | Top AI Investor Explainsyoutube.com