CoreWeave data centers in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect CoreWeave data centers to be Above 62 in fiscal 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- The highest data center thresholds appear unlikely, with the Dalton, GA project shifting to 2027.
- CoreWeave secured over $20 billion, but European expansion faces significant regulatory challenges.
- Substantial financing supports the 1.7 GW active power capacity target for year-end 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 62 | 0.0% | 0.8% | CoreWeave secured substantial financing and is on track to increase data center capacity by 2026. |
| Above 64 | 0.0% | 0.7% | CoreWeave secured substantial financing and is on track to increase data center capacity by 2026. |
| Above 66 | 0.0% | 0.6% | CoreWeave secured substantial financing and is on track to increase data center capacity by 2026. |
| Above 68 | 0.0% | 0.5% | CoreWeave secured substantial financing and is on track to increase data center capacity by 2026. |
| Above 70 | 0.0% | 0.4% | CoreWeave secured substantial financing and is on track to increase data center capacity by 2026. |
Current Context
CoreWeave expanded its global data center footprint and power capacity significantly in 2026. As of March 31, 2026, the company operated 49 data centers worldwide with over 1 GW of active power and 3.5 GW of total contracted power [^][^][^]. CoreWeave targets over 1.7 GW of active power by year-end 2026 and aims for 8 GW capacity by 2030 [^][^][^][^]. The company expanded into the Asia-Pacific market, planning 360 MW capacity in Indonesia by 2028 [^][^]. Additionally, CoreWeave formed strategic collaborations with Leidos for government and defense missions and Solidigm for enterprise storage [^][^]. The "CoreWeave Wind Tunnel" is unrelated to its data center operations [^][^][^].
CoreWeave reported strong revenue growth in Q1 2026, alongside substantial capital expenditures. Q1 2026 revenue reached $2.08 billion, a 112% increase year-over-year, supported by a revenue backlog of approximately $99.4 billion [^][^][^][^]. The company anticipates 2026 capital expenditures between $31 billion and $35 billion, doubling from 2025 levels to support its expansion goals [^][^][^]. This rapid growth strategy is debt-intensive; CoreWeave reported a net loss of $740 million in Q1 2026, reflecting significant ongoing capital requirements [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement. The contract opened on August 7, 2026, at a 1.0% probability and was repriced to 93.0% on the same day. The price has since held steady at this level. This immediate spike suggests the market instantly absorbed and reflected pre-existing public information rather than reacting to new developments.
The catalyst for this repricing appears to be publicly available data on CoreWeave's existing infrastructure. Reports from earlier in the year stated the company operated 49 data centers as of March 31, 2026, with significant expansion underway. This information makes a "YES" resolution on a high data center count for fiscal 2026 a near certainty, justifying the jump to a high-conviction price. The market effectively opened mispriced relative to known facts.
Despite the definitive price level, total traded volume is zero. This indicates the price reflects the bids and asks of market participants on the order book, not prices established through executed trades. The 93.0% level represents a ceiling where sellers are present, but the lack of trading volume shows conviction has not been tested with capital. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly confident in a "YES" outcome, but the market itself is illiquid.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 85.0%
Outcome: Above 64
What happened: The provided research indicates that the reported "84.0 percentage point spike" on August 7, 2026, is a misattribution and is not linked to the CoreWeave data center prediction market for fiscal 2026 [^]. Instead, this figure appears in contexts such as sports betting or other entities' financial reports [^]. As there is no evidence of such a price movement occurring in the specified CoreWeave market, it is not possible to identify a primary driver, including social media activity, based on the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This contract resolves to YES if CoreWeave operates more than 68 data centers in fiscal 2026, and resolves to NO if they operate 68 or fewer data centers in fiscal 2026. Trading for the market ends on February 25, 4:00 PM EST. The maximum payout date for this contract is May 26, 2027, with no special settlement conditions explicitly stated beyond the data center count.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 62 | $0.99 | $0.07 | 0% |
| Above 64 | $0.93 | $0.15 | 0% |
| Above 66 | $0.80 | $0.28 | 0% |
| Above 68 | $0.60 | $0.48 | 0% |
| Above 70 | $0.37 | $0.71 | 0% |
| Above 72 | $0.19 | $0.89 | 0% |
Market Discussion
CoreWeave has guided for annual revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion in fiscal 2026, with an annualized run rate revenue projection of $17 billion to $19 billion by year-end 2026, alongside plans to achieve over 1.7 GW of active power capacity by year-end [^][^][^][^][^]. Full-year 2026 capital expenditure is projected between $31 billion and $35 billion to fund aggressive data center expansion [^][^][^]. Trader and market discussion is polarized, with some emphasizing the nearly $100 billion revenue backlog as of Q1 2026 and early-mover advantage, while others express concerns over high leverage, negative free cash flow, and credit risk associated with its rapid, debt-funded expansion [^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. How will CoreWeave's Q2 and Q3 2026 financing efforts affect its ability to fund its projected $31-$35 billion in capital expenditures for data center expansion?
| 2026 Capital Expenditure Target | $31-$35 billion [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Capital Secured Year-to-Date (Q2/Q3 2026) | Over $20 billion [^][^][^][^] |
| Active Power Capacity Target (End 2026) | Over 1.7 gigawatts [^][^][^] |
CoreWeave's Q2 and Q3 2026 financing efforts secured over $20 billion. This debt and equity capital provides necessary liquidity to fund its projected $31-$35 billion capital expenditure target for 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This substantial investment is critical for scaling its AI infrastructure, aiming to double its active power capacity to over 1.7 gigawatts by year-end 2026 [^][^][^]. Key funding initiatives include a $2.3 billion facility and a $3.1 billion delayed-draw term loan (DDTL) facility, both secured in May, alongside a $2.6 billion first-lien delayed-draw term loan in July [^][^][^].
This aggressive financing strategy introduces increased leverage and higher borrowing costs [^] [^] [^] [^] . CoreWeave projects its interest expense to rise significantly, reaching $650-$730 million in Q2 2026 [^][^]. Additionally, the company faces tighter covenant requirements, such as maintaining a 1.35x debt-service coverage ratio [^][^]. These factors highlight the financial commitments associated with CoreWeave's rapid expansion plans.
6. What is the average power capacity (in MW) of CoreWeave's new data centers planned for 2026, and how many facilities does this imply are needed to meet the year-end target of 1.7 GW active power?
| Average capacity per site | 20-25 MW (implied, Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total active power | Over 1 GW (by end of Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| Active power goal | More than 1.7 GW (by year-end 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
CoreWeave's average facility power capacity for 2026 is not specified. CoreWeave has not publicly stated a precise average megawatt (MW) per facility for 2026. However, based on its operation of approximately 49 data centers to reach over 1 gigawatt (GW) of active power by the end of Q1 2026, the implied average capacity per site is roughly 20-25 MW [^][^][^][^].
CoreWeave needs significant new capacity to meet its 2026 target. To meet its year-end 2026 goal of more than 1.7 GW of active power capacity, CoreWeave needs to add approximately 700 MW of net new capacity from its 1 GW baseline [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Assuming a similar average capacity per facility, this implies the need for roughly 30-35 additional data centers or the expansion of existing ones [^][^][^].
7. How does CoreWeave's projected 2026 data center completion rate compare to the announced expansion plans of hyperscale competitors like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud?
| CoreWeave 2026 Leased Capacity Completion Target | 85-90% of 590 MW [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| CoreWeave 2026 Projected Capital Expenditure | $31-35 billion [^][^][^] |
| AWS 2026 Capital Expenditure Guidance | ~$105 billion [^][^][^] |
CoreWeave projects significant data center expansion by the end of 2026. The company targets an estimated completion rate of approximately 85% to 90% of its announced 590 MW of leased customer power capacity by year-end 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Specific sites already fully handed over include Marble, NC (65 MW) and Austin, TX (20 MW). Projects in Muskogee, OK (70 MW) and Denton, TX (260 MW) are on track for mid-2026 completion, while Dalton, GA (175 MW) is projected for early 2027 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. CoreWeave had surpassed 1 GW of active data center capacity as of July 2026 and is on track to reach 1.7 GW by the close of 2026 [^][^][^]. The company's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $31 billion and $35 billion, primarily dedicated to fulfilling existing take-or-pay customer contracts [^][^][^].
Hyperscale competitors operate at a much larger scale with broader strategies. A direct comparison of 2026 completion percentages for Amazon Web Services (AWS) or Google Cloud is not publicly available, as their announcements typically outline multi-year capacity expansions [^][^][^][^][^][^]. These hyperscale competitors maintain a vastly larger operational scale, with AWS and Google Cloud's 2026 capital expenditure guidance being approximately $105 billion and $75 billion (Alphabet total) respectively [^][^][^]. AWS currently operates around 14.1 GW of tracked capacity, and Google Cloud approximately 9.0 GW [^][^][^]. CoreWeave distinguishes itself as a specialized "neocloud" provider focusing on high-performance AI workloads, often partnering with hyperscalers rather than directly competing in general-purpose cloud services [^][^]. This model enables CoreWeave to rapidly deploy niche infrastructure to meet specific customer contracts, whereas hyperscalers leverage their immense scale and breadth for diverse enterprise needs and make broader, more speculative investments in AI infrastructure [^][^][^][^][^].
8. What public records, such as local construction permits or reports from data center real estate firms like JLL and Cushman & Wakefield, are available to track CoreWeave's project progress in fiscal 2026?
| Tracking Public Records | Local permit filings, tax abatement agreements, specialized industry platforms [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Industry Data Center Cost | $11.3M/MW in 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| CoreWeave Data Center Capacity | Surpassing 1GW [^][^] |
CoreWeave's project progress for fiscal 2026 can be monitored through various public records. These include local construction permit filings, which are accessible on state platforms such as the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation's TABS portal [^][^], and tax abatement agreements [^]. Specialized industry platforms, including datacenter.fyi and Buildermuse, provide aggregated information on CoreWeave's data center facilities, permits, site status, and power capacity details for projects filed in 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, insights into progress can be gleaned from filings by third-party data center providers, exemplified by Core Scientific's Q2 2026 slides, which offer visibility into contracted power capacity and expansion timelines relevant to CoreWeave's operations [^].
CoreWeave's announcements detail capacity milestones, while market reports offer context. The company itself provides updates on its project progress through official announcements, such as their Fiscal 1Q26 Financial Results or declarations of milestones like surpassing 1GW of data center capacity [^][^]. While general industry reports from real estate firms like JLL provide valuable macroeconomic context and cost benchmarks, for instance, an average of $11.3M/MW for data center construction in 2026 [^][^][^][^], these reports typically do not offer project-level progress for specific private companies such as CoreWeave [^][^][^][^][^].
9. Which specific geographies in CoreWeave's 2026 global expansion plan present the most significant regulatory or supply chain risks that could delay new data center openings?
| Scotland Project Value | £8.2 billion (North Lanarkshire, Scotland) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Capex Plan | $31B-$35B (2026) [^][^] |
| Highest Regulatory Risk | Sweden and other European markets [^][^] |
CoreWeave’s European expansion faces substantial regulatory, power, and supply chain challenges. New data center openings in Sweden and the broader European region are particularly susceptible to delays from local approvals, energy policy, and environmental requirements [^][^]. CoreWeave's SEC filings underscore its reliance on governments and regulators to secure adequate power and suitable sites, noting that power availability is a critical limiting factor for AI data centers across Europe, potentially restricting growth opportunities [^]. The £8.2 billion AI data center project in North Lanarkshire, Scotland, exemplifies these hurdles, encountering significant regulatory and operational issues concerning unresolved power provision, which could impact national energy distribution and local electricity costs [^].
Expansion into Indonesia introduces unique operational and site-specific supply chain complexities. This marks CoreWeave’s transition to owning and operating facilities in an unfamiliar regulatory environment, posing new operational, execution, and supply chain risks [^][^]. Furthermore, any expansion into new regions beyond CoreWeave’s current North America and Europe footprint carries high uncertainty, requiring establishment of new regulatory approvals, power procurement, and infrastructure development from the ground up [^][^][^]. Overall, CoreWeave's ambitious capital expenditure plan, targeting $31 billion to $35 billion for 2026, is vulnerable to global trade controls, fluctuations in memory chip prices, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties, all of which could disrupt the delivery timeline for data centers scheduled for 2026 [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
CoreWeave plans to double its active power capacity from 850 MW at the end of 2025 to over 1.7 GW by the end of 2026, aiming for 5 GW of data center capacity by 2030 [^] [^] [^] . The company anticipates 2026 capital expenditures to double compared to 2025, reaching between $30 billion and $35 billion to fuel infrastructure buildout [^][^][^]. CoreWeave reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion, representing ~140% year-over-year growth, with a year-end annualized run rate projected to reach $17 billion to $19 billion [^][^][^][^].
Key market catalysts for Q3 2026 include CoreWeave's Q2 earnings release on August 11 [^] [^] [^] . Investors will monitor margin expansion, backlog conversion rates, and the impact of the $2.8 billion NVIDIA contract on profitability [^][^][^]. Bullish factors include a $99.4 billion revenue backlog, priority GPU access, and strong AI demand [^][^][^]. Bearish risks involve $32.9 billion net debt, negative free cash flow, customer concentration (e.g., Meta, OpenAI), and exposure to construction delay litigation [^][^][^].
The regulatory environment for prediction markets in 2026 features federal court contradictions regarding state regulatory powers and ongoing CFTC efforts to implement guardrails against manipulation, supported by entities like the NFL [^] . Data center moratoriums, such as in New York, present a broader market risk [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 26, 2027
- Closes: May 26, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: CoreWeave plans to double its active power capacity from 850 MW at the end of 2025 to over 1.7 GW by the end of 2026, aiming for 5 GW of data center capacity by 2030 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company anticipates 2026 capital expenditures to double compared to 2025, reaching between $30 billion and $35 billion to fuel infrastructure buildout [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: CoreWeave reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion, representing ~140% year-over-year growth, with a year-end annualized run rate projected to reach $17 billion to $19 billion [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key market catalysts for Q3 2026 include CoreWeave's Q2 earnings release on August 11 [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
