CoreWeave contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- CoreWeave is expected to exceed 3.86 GW, driven by H2 2026 capital expenditures. Growth beyond 3.86 GW is likely due to the $99.4 billion revenue backlog. * Significant data center expansion and accelerated deployments forecast continued capacity growth.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.2 gw | 29.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 29.0pp |
| Above 5.6 gw | 9.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 9.0pp |
| Above 4.4 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Above 4.6 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Above 4.8 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
Current Context
Sources (10)
- 1CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 2coreweave-expands-cloud-ai-platform-to-indonesia-marking-first-move-into-asia-pacific-regioncoreweave.com
- 3CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 4CoreWeave (CRWV) Q4 earnings report 2025 - CNBCcnbc.com
- 5crwv-20260331 - SEC.govsec.gov
- 6CoreWeave Q1 2026 Earnings Review - Finseefinsee.ai
- 7CoreWeave expands cloud AI platform to Indonesia, marking first move into Asia-Pacific region - TNGlobaltechnode.global
- 8CoreWeave - Leidos and CoreWeave Collaborate to Accelerate Delivery of AI Capabilities for Defense, National Security and Intelligence Missionsinvestors.coreweave.com
- 9CoreWeave Signs Multi-Year Agreement With Solidigm to Strengthen Its Integrated AI Cloud Platform | Solidigm Newsroomnews.solidigm.com
- 10CoreWeave - IMC Selects CoreWeave As Firm Deepens Research Investmentinvestors.coreweave.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 86.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%
Outcome: Above 4.4 gw
Sources (8)
- 1EQT Snags Two Natural Gas Supply Contracts, Including for...naturalgasintel.com
- 2https://www.wemakeithere.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Rapid-Fire_EnergyPresentation-2026.pdfwemakeithere.org
- 3$90B+ in private investments aim to turn PA into nation’s nucleus for energy and AI - Pennsylvania Business Reportpennbizreport.com
- 4How Carbon Taxes Collapsed Pennsylvania's Generation Investment and What It Means for the Data Center Boom - Publications - National Taxpayers Unionntu.org
- 5CoreWeave Jumps 9% on Indonesia AI Data Center Push | StockTistockti.com
- 6CoreWeave Expands Into Asia With Three Indonesian Data Centers — 360MW of Capacity Targeting Southeast Asia's Surging AI Demand - Lumida Newslumidanews.com
- 7CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) shares climb 9% following Indonesian AI expansion that boosts contracted power by 10%ts2.tech
- 8coreweave-expands-cloud-ai-platform-to-indonesia-marking-first-move-into-asia-pacific-regioncoreweave.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market concerns CoreWeave's contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026. A YES resolution occurs if the capacity is above 5 GW, while a NO resolution occurs if it is 5 GW or less. Trading for this market concludes on February 25, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 26, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.2 gw | $0.29 | $0.80 | 29% |
| Above 5.6 gw | $0.10 | $0.98 | 9% |
| Above 4.4 gw | $0.96 | $0.13 | 0% |
| Above 4.6 gw | $0.84 | $0.25 | 0% |
| Above 4.8 gw | $0.67 | $0.42 | 0% |
| Above 5 gw | $0.47 | $0.62 | 0% |
| Above 5.4 gw | $0.17 | $0.92 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of Q1 2026, CoreWeave reported over 3.5 GW of total contracted power capacity, marking an increase of over 400 MW during the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The company is also targeting to reach more than 1.7 GW of active power capacity by the end of fiscal 2026, which would double its year-end 2025 capacity of 850 MW [5][6][7][4].
Sources (7)
- 1CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
- 2CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
- 3CoreWeave Q1 FY 2026: Capacity Constraints Amid AI Demand - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
- 4CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 earnings report 2026 - CNBCcnbc.com
- 5CoreWeave (CRWV) Q4 earnings report 2025 - CNBCcnbc.com
- 6CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 7CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
5. What major capital expenditure plans or new client partnerships in H2 2026 could significantly alter CoreWeave's contracted power capacity growth?
| Projected 2026 CapEx | $31 billion to $35 billion (full-year 2026) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Targeted Active Power Capacity | More than 1.7GW (by end of 2026) [1][5][6] |
| 2026 Loan Amount | $8.5 billion (secured March 2026) [1][7][8] |
Sources (9)
- 1CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 2CoreWeave CFO says co expects 2026 capex of $30-$35 bln | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 3CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 4[PDF] CoreWeave - AWSsacra-pdfs.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
- 5CoreWeave Q2 Preview: Expect 108% Revenue Growth, Margin May Disappoint - Passport to Wall Streetpws.io
- 6CoreWeave faces execution test as data center activation ramps upproactiveinvestors.com
- 7Galaxy Delivers 133 MW to Coreweave, Formalizes titleB AI Power Revenue Path | Gate Newsgate.com
- 8CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) shares climb 9% following Indonesian AI expansion that boosts contracted power by 10%ts2.tech
- 9CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
6. How does CoreWeave's rate of data center expansion in 2026 compare to that of major hyperscalers like AWS and Microsoft Azure?
| CoreWeave 2026 Active Power Capacity Target | Over 1.7GW (by end of 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| CoreWeave Anticipated Capital Expenditures 2026 | $30–$35 billion [1][5][6] |
| CoreWeave Contracted Power Capacity Q1 2026 | Over 3.5GW [1][3][4] |
Sources (7)
- 1CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 2CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 3CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
- 4CRWV Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 5CoreWeave Takes As Much Financial Engineering As It Does...nextplatform.com
- 6CoreWeave (CRWV) Q4 earnings report 2025 - CNBCcnbc.com
- 7CoreWeave (CRWV) Shares Rebound 24% After Halving: Can This AI Cloud Computing Giant Challenge AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud? | Gate Bloggate.com
7. What is the historical relationship between CoreWeave's reported revenue backlog and its subsequent additions to contracted power capacity during 2025 and 2026?
| Revenue Backlog Q1 2026 | $99.4 billion [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Contracted Power Q1 2026 | 3.5 GW [1][2][3][4] |
| 2026 Revenue Guidance | $12 billion to $13 billion [5][3][4] |
Sources (8)
- 1CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 3CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 4CRWV Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 5CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
- 6CoreWeave Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025...investors.coreweave.com
- 7CoreWeave Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025...sec.gov
- 8CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
8. How is 'contracted power capacity' officially defined and reported in CoreWeave's SEC filings and investor communications for fiscal year 2026?
| Contracted Power Capacity (Dec 2025) | 3.1 gigawatts (GW) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Expected Deployment of 3.1 GW Capacity | By end of 2027 [3][2] |
| Target Active Power Capacity (Year-end 2026) | More than 1.7 gigawatts [3][2] |
9. How might CoreWeave's 2026 supply chain agreements with key hardware partners like NVIDIA and Solidigm affect its infrastructure build-out schedule?
| AI Factories Target | Over 5 gigawatts by 2030 (AI factories) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Contracted Power Q1 2026 | Over 3.5 gigawatts [3][4][5][6] |
| Solidigm Agreement Date | August 5, 2026 [7][8][9] |
Sources (9)
- 1NVIDIA and CoreWeave Strengthen Collaboration to Accelerate Buildout of AI Factories | NVIDIA Newsroomnvidianews.nvidia.com
- 2CoreWeave - NVIDIA and CoreWeave Strengthen Collaboration to Accelerate Buildout of AI Factoriesinvestors.coreweave.com
- 3CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
- 4CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 5CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
- 6CoreWeave Q1 FY 2026: Capacity Constraints Amid AI Demand - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
- 7https://www.coreweave.com/news/coreweave-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-solidigm-to-strengthen-its-integrated-ai-cloud-platformcoreweave.com
- 8CoreWeave Signs Multi-Year Agreement With Solidigm to Strengthen Its Integrated AI Cloud Platform | Solidigm Newsroomnews.solidigm.com
- 9CoreWeave Locks In Solidigm SSD Supply as Flash Allocation...storagereview.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 26, 2027
- Closes: May 26, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1Piper Sandler Sees 64% Upside For CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) Despite 33% Three-Month Slideforeignpolicyjournal.com
- 2Coreweave at $92: The Compelling Bull Case On Offer Right Now - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 3$35 Billion in Debt and Zero Safety Net — Why Bulls Love CoreWeave Anyway — The Signalreadthesignal.net
- 4CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 5coreweave-expands-cloud-ai-platform-to-indonesia-marking-first-move-into-asia-pacific-regioncoreweave.com
- 6CoreWeave (CRWV) Q4 earnings report 2025 - CNBCcnbc.com
- 7CoreWeave Q1 FY 2026: Capacity Constraints Amid AI Demandfuturumgroup.com
- 8CoreWeave Earnings - May 2026 - Nequit Financialnequitco.com