CoreWeave contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect CoreWeave's contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026 to be Above 4.4 gw, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- CoreWeave is expected to exceed 3.86 GW, driven by H2 2026 capital expenditures. Growth beyond 3.86 GW is likely due to the $99.4 billion revenue backlog. * Significant data center expansion and accelerated deployments forecast continued capacity growth.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.4 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 4.6 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 4.8 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 5 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 5.2 gw | 0.0% | 0.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
CoreWeave significantly expanded power capacity, targeting substantial fiscal 2026 growth. As of March 31, 2026, CoreWeave reported over 3.5 gigawatts of total contracted power capacity and more than 1 gigawatt of active power capacity [^][^][^]. The company targeted $30 billion to $35 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, aiming to end the year with over 1.7 gigawatts of active power capacity [^]. CoreWeave has a strategic long-term goal of reaching more than 8 gigawatts of active power capacity by 2030 [^][^].
CoreWeave reported strong Q1 2026 revenue, backlog, and a net loss. The company's Q1 2026 revenue was $2.078 billion, with a revenue backlog of $99.4 billion [^][^][^]. CoreWeave recorded a net loss of $740 million for the quarter, primarily reflecting significant infrastructure and depreciation costs [^][^][^].
Mid-2026 brought strategic expansions and key partnerships for CoreWeave. Developments included expanding into Indonesia with a 360-megawatt capacity [^][^], a collaboration with Leidos to accelerate AI capabilities for defense and national security missions [^], and securing a multi-year supply agreement with Solidigm for enterprise SSDs [^]. Additionally, IMC selected CoreWeave as it deepened its research investment [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by a single, dramatic move. The probability of CoreWeave's contracted power capacity meeting the market's specific target jumped from 1.0% to 87.0% on August 07, 2026. This 86-point spike appears to be driven by a misinterpretation of company disclosures. The market specifies a "4.4 gw" figure, which corresponds to the Homer City Energy Campus project. This is distinct from CoreWeave's total contracted capacity, which was reported as over 3.5 gigawatts as of March 31, 2026.
The most significant technical factor is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movement does not reflect genuine market activity or consensus. Instead, the current 87.0% price is likely an initial quote or an adjustment by a single participant based on the flawed premise connecting the Homer City project to the company's overall capacity targets.
Due to the lack of trading, there are no established support or resistance levels. The chart simply shows a starting point and a current, untested price. While the price level itself suggests high confidence in a "YES" resolution, the zero volume indicates there is no conviction behind this price. The market sentiment is therefore indeterminate and likely based on incorrect information.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 86.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%
Outcome: Above 4.4 gw
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market spike was likely a widespread misinterpretation of CoreWeave's contracted power capacity figures. The "4.4 gw" specified in the market refers to the Homer City Energy Campus project, a separate infrastructure development, and not CoreWeave's total contracted capacity [^][^][^][^]. CoreWeave's actual publicly disclosed capacity, even after its 360 MW expansion in Indonesia announced on August 4, 2026, was over 3.86 GW [^][^][^][^]. No specific social media activity or traditional news directly caused the "Above 4.4 gw" movement, and the 86.0 percentage point figure itself is likely a misattributed financial metric [^][^][^]. Social media was irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market concerns CoreWeave's contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026. A YES resolution occurs if the capacity is above 5 GW, while a NO resolution occurs if it is 5 GW or less. Trading for this market concludes on February 25, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 26, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.4 gw | $0.95 | $0.13 | 0% |
| Above 4.6 gw | $0.83 | $0.25 | 0% |
| Above 4.8 gw | $0.66 | $0.42 | 0% |
| Above 5 gw | $0.46 | $0.62 | 0% |
| Above 5.2 gw | $0.28 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Above 5.4 gw | $0.16 | $0.92 | 0% |
| Above 5.6 gw | $0.09 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of Q1 2026, CoreWeave reported over 3.5 GW of total contracted power capacity, marking an increase of over 400 MW during the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The company is also targeting to reach more than 1.7 GW of active power capacity by the end of fiscal 2026, which would double its year-end 2025 capacity of 850 MW [^][^][^][^].
5. What major capital expenditure plans or new client partnerships in H2 2026 could significantly alter CoreWeave's contracted power capacity growth?
| Projected 2026 CapEx | $31 billion to $35 billion (full-year 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Targeted Active Power Capacity | More than 1.7GW (by end of 2026) [^][^][^] |
| 2026 Loan Amount | $8.5 billion (secured March 2026) [^][^][^] |
CoreWeave plans substantial 2026 capital expenditure to boost power capacity. The company projects a significant capital expenditure between $31 billion and $35 billion for full-year 2026, primarily to scale infrastructure and fulfill existing customer contracts [^][^][^][^][^]. This investment aims to increase CoreWeave's active power capacity from approximately 1GW in Q1 2026 to over 1.7GW by the close of 2026, with deployments accelerating in the second half of the year [^][^][^].
This capacity growth is supported by an $8.5 billion loan secured in March 2026. This financing mechanism incorporates an ABS-style draw feature, allowing CoreWeave to access additional capital once underlying customer contracts have stabilized [^][^][^]. This funding strategy is specifically designed to support the planned infrastructure expansion and the increase in power capacity throughout 2026 [^][^][^][^][^].
No major new client partnerships are indicated for H2 2026 impacting growth. Research findings do not show any new client partnerships emerging specifically in the second half of 2026 that would significantly alter CoreWeave's contracted power capacity growth. While CoreWeave's total contracted power capacity was over 3.86GW as of early August 2026, including a 360MW expansion in Indonesia and ongoing collaborations with partners like NVIDIA, these reflect existing capacity and continuous relationships rather than new partnerships established in H2 2026 [^][^][^].
6. How does CoreWeave's rate of data center expansion in 2026 compare to that of major hyperscalers like AWS and Microsoft Azure?
| CoreWeave 2026 Active Power Capacity Target | Over 1.7GW (by end of 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| CoreWeave Anticipated Capital Expenditures 2026 | $30–$35 billion [^][^][^] |
| CoreWeave Contracted Power Capacity Q1 2026 | Over 3.5GW [^][^][^] |
CoreWeave projects significant data center expansion and capital investment in 2026. The company plans an aggressive buildout, aiming to double its active power capacity from 850MW at the end of 2025 to over 1.7GW by the close of 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This significant infrastructure buildout is supported by anticipated capital expenditures of $30–$35 billion for the full year 2026, marking a substantial increase from approximately $10.3 billion in 2025 [^][^][^]. CoreWeave also reported over 3.5GW of total contracted power capacity as of Q1 2026 and has a long-term objective of reaching 8GW of active power by 2030 [^][^][^].
Hyperscalers dominate the cloud market but direct comparison data for 2026 is absent. While CoreWeave demonstrates rapid growth in its specialized GPU-intensive AI cloud services, major hyperscalers such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud collectively hold a dominant position, commanding over 60% of the global cloud infrastructure market as of Q1 2026 [^]. These established providers leverage extensive and diversified ecosystems, contrasting with CoreWeave's specialized focus [^]. However, the available research does not provide specific metrics on the rate of data center expansion, including power capacity growth or dedicated capital expenditures for data centers, for AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud for the year 2026. This absence of information makes a direct quantitative comparison of their expansion rates with CoreWeave's challenging based on the available data.
7. What is the historical relationship between CoreWeave's reported revenue backlog and its subsequent additions to contracted power capacity during 2025 and 2026?
| Revenue Backlog Q1 2026 | $99.4 billion [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Contracted Power Q1 2026 | 3.5 GW [^][^][^][^] |
| 2026 Revenue Guidance | $12 billion to $13 billion [^][^][^] |
CoreWeave's revenue backlog demonstrates a direct correlation with its contracted power capacity expansion. The company's new customer commitments are a primary driver for acquiring and deploying additional contracted power, which is then converted into active, revenue-generating capacity [^][^][^][^]. This relationship was clearly observed in 2025, as CoreWeave's revenue backlog grew to $66.8 billion, aligning with the contracting of approximately 2 GW of additional power. By the end of 2025, the company's total contracted power reached 3.1 GW, alongside 850 MW of active capacity [^][^][^].
Growth in backlog and capacity continued into early 2026. This trend extended into the first quarter of 2026, with the revenue backlog further increasing to $99.4 billion, reflecting over $40 billion in new commitments [^][^][^][^]. During this quarter, contracted power capacity expanded to 3.5 GW, and active power surpassed 1 GW [^][^][^][^]. CoreWeave is projected to achieve over 1.7 GW of active power by the end of 2026, supported by its revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion for the year [^][^][^].
8. How is 'contracted power capacity' officially defined and reported in CoreWeave's SEC filings and investor communications for fiscal year 2026?
| Contracted Power Capacity (Dec 2025) | 3.1 gigawatts (GW) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Expected Deployment of 3.1 GW Capacity | By end of 2027 [^][^] |
| Target Active Power Capacity (Year-end 2026) | More than 1.7 gigawatts [^][^] |
CoreWeave defines contracted power capacity for take-or-pay agreements. This metric represents the total power capacity secured under committed contracts, which customers utilize on a take-or-pay basis throughout the specified contract term [^]. As of December 31, 2025, CoreWeave reported a total of approximately 3.1 gigawatts (GW) in contracted power capacity [^][^].
CoreWeave anticipates deploying all contracted capacity by late 2027. This 3.1 GW of contracted capacity is scheduled for deployment across future periods, with virtually all of it expected to become operational by the end of 2027 [^][^]. Specifically for fiscal year 2026, CoreWeave's guidance projects a doubling of its active power capacity to surpass 1.7 gigawatts by the conclusion of that year [^][^].
9. How might CoreWeave's 2026 supply chain agreements with key hardware partners like NVIDIA and Solidigm affect its infrastructure build-out schedule?
| AI Factories Target | Over 5 gigawatts by 2030 (AI factories) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Contracted Power Q1 2026 | Over 3.5 gigawatts [^][^][^][^] |
| Solidigm Agreement Date | August 5, 2026 [^][^][^] |
CoreWeave's infrastructure build-out hinges on strategic supply agreements. CoreWeave's infrastructure build-out schedule is significantly influenced by its 2026 supply chain agreements with NVIDIA and Solidigm. These collaborations are crucial for securing access to essential hardware, such as GPUs and enterprise SSDs, and are designed to mitigate potential supply bottlenecks, directly synchronizing procurement for timely deployment [^][^][^][^][^][^].
NVIDIA partnership ensures early access to advanced infrastructure. The deepened partnership with NVIDIA grants CoreWeave early access to various generations of NVIDIA's infrastructure, including Rubin, Vera CPUs, and BlueField storage systems. This access is vital in supporting CoreWeave's long-term ambition to develop over 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 [^][^].
Solidigm agreement and power synchronization optimize deployment efficiency. Concurrently, a multi-year agreement with Solidigm, effective August 5, 2026, guarantees priority access to enterprise SSD capacity, specifically addressing storage as a critical constraint in scaling CoreWeave's integrated AI cloud platform [^][^][^]. CoreWeave's deployment timeline is primarily determined by its ability to synchronize the procurement and delivery of power, GPUs, and storage, with the company aiming to minimize the interval between powered shell readiness and full operational capacity. As of Q1 2026, CoreWeave has exceeded 1 gigawatt of active power and holds over 3.5 gigawatts of contracted power, with the majority expected online by the end of 2027. These strategic supply agreements are vital for achieving this synchronization and ensuring the timely deployment of its contracted capacity [^][^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Investment catalysts for CoreWeave center on the conversion of the $99.4 billion revenue backlog, successful execution of sequential margin expansion, and the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for August 11, 2026 [^] [^] . The bull case rests on strong AI demand and backlog visibility [^][^]. Conversely, the bear case focuses on high leverage ($50.8 billion in total liabilities), GPU depreciation risks, and customer concentration [^][^][^].
Operationally, CoreWeave reported over 3.5 gigawatts of contracted power capacity as of Q1 2026, with more than 400 megawatts added during that quarter [^] [^] . For fiscal 2026, the company reaffirmed revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion and guided for full-year capital expenditures of $31 billion to $35 billion [^][^][^]. Year-end 2026 active power is targeted to exceed 1.7 gigawatts [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 26, 2027
- Closes: May 26, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Investment catalysts for CoreWeave center on the conversion of the $99.4 billion revenue backlog, successful execution of sequential margin expansion, and the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for August 11, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The bull case rests on strong AI demand and backlog visibility [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, the bear case focuses on high leverage ($50.8 billion in total liabilities), GPU depreciation risks, and customer concentration [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Operationally, CoreWeave reported over 3.5 gigawatts of contracted power capacity as of Q1 2026, with more than 400 megawatts added during that quarter [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
