CoreWeave power capacity in Q3
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect CoreWeave's contracted power capacity in Q3 2026 to be above 3.8 gw, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is defined by a single, decisive move on August 7, 2026. The probability of CoreWeave's contracted power capacity reaching 3.8 GW by Q3 2026 jumped 90 percentage points, from 1.0% to 91.0%. This repricing was a direct reaction to company disclosures from August 3, 2026. CoreWeave announced a $99 billion AI infrastructure backlog and a new strategy to build its own data centers. This news followed a Q1 2026 report where the company had already reached over 3.5 GW of total contracted power capacity, putting the market's target within reach. The backlog announcement appears to have cemented the market's expectation that the remaining capacity expansion would be contracted in short order.
The price chart shows zero traded volume across all data points. This indicates the sharp price increase was not driven by participant trading but was likely an adjustment by the market maker in response to the fundamental news. The lack of trading volume means there is no demonstrated market conviction behind the 91.0% price level. The market has established a floor at 1.0% and a current ceiling at 91.0%. While the price level itself suggests near certainty in the outcome, the absence of any capital flow means this sentiment is untested.
- CoreWeave's contracted capacity for Q3 2026 likely sits at or below 3.8 GW.
- This reflects tempered capital deployment due to challenging debt market conditions.
- Q1 2026 capacity exceeded 3.5 GW, showing momentum for further expansion.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.4 gw | 3.0% | 0.3% | Market higher by 2.7pp |
| Above 4 gw | 99.0% | 0.5% | Market higher by 98.5pp |
| Above 4.2 gw | 79.0% | 0.4% | Market higher by 78.6pp |
| Above 4.6 gw | 22.0% | 0.2% | Market higher by 21.8pp |
| Above 4.8 gw | 1.0% | 0.1% | Market higher by 0.9pp |
Current Context
CoreWeave expanded its power capacity significantly through Q1 2026. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported over 3.5 gigawatts of total contracted power capacity, following an expansion of more than 400 megawatts during that quarter [1][2][3]. Active power capacity surpassed 1 gigawatt by the end of Q1 2026 [1][2][3].
Strong Q1 financials support CoreWeave's aggressive capacity build-out. CoreWeave's revenue backlog reached $99.4 billion as of Q1 2026, driven by significant commitments from large customers like Meta [1][2][4][5]. For fiscal year 2026, the company reaffirmed revenue guidance of $12.0 billion to $13.0 billion and raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $31.0 billion–$35.0 billion [5][3].
Market sentiment shifted on AI infrastructure funding during mid-2026. Mid-2026 market developments included investor concern regarding AI-linked infrastructure borrowing [6]. This led CoreWeave to sweeten terms on a $2.6 billion debt facility in July 2026 [6]. The broader AI sector faces questions regarding sufficient data center power, land, and infrastructure to meet computational demand [7][8][9][10][11][12].
Sources (12)
- 1CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
- 2CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
- 3CoreWeave Q1 FY 2026: Capacity Constraints Amid AI Demandfuturumgroup.com
- 4CoreWeave Q1 2026 Earnings Review - Finseefinsee.ai
- 5CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) Stock Research Report | Flashflash.stocksentinel.ai
- 6CoreWeave Sweetens $2.6B AI Loan Terms as Enthusiasm Ebbsbriefs.co
- 7Why Demand for Compute Is About to Explode | TCAF 253youtube.com
- 8Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agencyyoutube.com
- 9The 2028 Natural Gas Crisis No One Sees Comingyoutube.com
- 10The AI Selloff Doesn't Match the Data | Top AI Investor Explainsyoutube.com
- 11AI Has a Power Problem: Why the U.S. Power Grid Can't Keep Up | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 69youtube.com
- 12AI as a Sovereign Poweryoutube.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%
Outcome: Above 3.8 gw
What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was CoreWeave's announcement on August 3, 2026, revealing an expanded AI infrastructure backlog of $99 billion and a strategic shift towards self-built data centers, with the first expected online later in 2026 [1]. This significant company update, released just days before the market spike on August 7, likely signaled to participants that CoreWeave's total contracted power capacity would rapidly exceed 3.8 GW in Q3 2026, an increase from its >3.5 GW reported in Q1 2026 [2][1]. The massive backlog implied substantially accelerated capacity expansion, directly causing the 90.0 percentage point increase. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant as the primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if CoreWeave's contracted power capacity in Q3 is above 4.4 GW, and NO if it is 4.4 GW or below. The trading deadline is November 10, 4:00 PM EST. The maximum payout date for this contract is March 10, 2027, with no other special settlement conditions detailed.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.8 gw | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 4 gw | $0.99 | $0.04 | 99% |
| Above 4.2 gw | $0.81 | $0.28 | 79% |
| Above 4.6 gw | $0.22 | $0.86 | 22% |
| Above 4.4 gw | $0.39 | $0.69 | 3% |
| Above 4.8 gw | $0.12 | $0.96 | 1% |
Market Discussion
CoreWeave surpassed 1 gigawatt (GW) of active power capacity as of early 2026 and aims for 1.7 GW by the end of 2026, with contracted power capacity exceeding 3.5 GW as of March 2026 [1][2][3]. The company is also transitioning to accelerate self-built data center projects, with its first self-build site expected to come online in 2026, to gain better operational control and financial upside [1][4][5][3]. While some retail investors are bullish due to a nearly $100 billion revenue backlog (as of Q1 2026), others express concern regarding high debt, elevated capital expenditures, and potential margin pressure during this rapid expansion [6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 2coreweave-expands-cloud-ai-platform-to-indonesia-marking-first-move-into-asia-pacific-regioncoreweave.com
- 3CoreWeave Q1 FY 2026: Capacity Constraints Amid AI Demand - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
- 4CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030...datacenterdynamics.com
- 5CoreWeave Details Expansion Financing, Power Constraints and NVIDIA Growth Plans at Conference | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 6CoreWeave (CRWV) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.org
- 7CRWV (CoreWeave) Sentiment Analysis — Whisper Index 40.1 | StonkWhisperstonkwhisper.com
- 8CoreWeave Stock (CRWV) Opinions on AI Infrastructure Expansion | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
- 9CRWV: CoreWeave Inc Latest Stock Price, Analysis... - Stocktwitsstocktwits.com
- 10CoreWeave Stock Tumbles On Capex Bump, Soft Guidance: Retail Undeterredstocktwits.com
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score67Caution
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score62Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What forward-looking guidance on data center construction timelines and new customer contracts will analysts focus on in CoreWeave's Q2 2026 earnings report?
| Contracted power target by EOY 2026 | More than 8 GW [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Contracted power at end of Q1 2026 | Over 3.5 GW [1][2] |
| Initial 2026 CapEx plan | Approximately $2 billion [1][2] |
Analysts will scrutinize data center construction timelines and power capacity targets. CoreWeave's Q2 2026 earnings report will prompt analysts to focus on forward-looking guidance regarding data center construction timelines and new customer agreements [1][2]. A primary concern is whether the company can maintain or accelerate its goal of achieving over 8 GW of contracted power by the end of 2026, building upon the more than 3.5 GW reported at the close of Q1 2026 [1][2]. Additionally, analysts will monitor the advancement of 'self-build' data center sites and the pace at which contracted power capacity becomes operational, including the rollout of Nvidia's Vera Rubin systems scheduled to commence in Q3 2026 [3][4][5].
New customer contracts will significantly impact CoreWeave's capital expenditure plans. Another key area of interest for analysts is the securing of additional large customer commitments beyond the existing $21 billion agreement with Meta and other expanded relationships [1][2]. CoreWeave's initial 2026 capital expenditure plan, set at approximately $2 billion, was formulated without anticipating new major customer contracts [1][2]. Consequently, analysts will be keen to determine if any new substantial deals will necessitate a revision to this CapEx plan, which could indicate a higher spending trajectory and a more rapid expansion of capacity [1][2].
Sources (5)
- 1www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 2www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 3CRWV Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 4CoreWeave's Anthropic Deal: 12% Surge, 6.8B Backlog [2026]tech-insider.org
- 5CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
7. What is the consensus among tech and infrastructure analysts for CoreWeave's end-of-Q3 2026 contracted power capacity?
| Contracted Power (Q1 2026) | Over 3.5 gigawatts [1] |
|---|---|
| Power Added (Q1 2026) | 400 megawatts [1] |
| Prediction Market Threshold (Q3 2026) | 3.8 gigawatts [1] |
CoreWeave's Q3 2026 contracted power capacity lacks a public target. The company's contracted power capacity surpassed 3.5 gigawatts by the close of Q1 2026, driven by a significant increase of 400 megawatts during that quarter alone [1]. However, CoreWeave has not publicly disclosed a specific target for its contracted power by the end of Q3 2026 [1]. As a result, a direct consensus among tech and infrastructure analysts regarding the company's official Q3 2026 power capacity goals is currently unavailable [1].
Analysts track CoreWeave's growth against a 3.8 gigawatts threshold. Despite the absence of a stated company objective, tech and infrastructure analysts are closely monitoring CoreWeave's expansion against a 3.8 gigawatts benchmark [1]. This threshold has been established by prediction markets for the resolution of their forecasts concerning the company's Q3 2026 power capacity [1]. The company's aggressive growth rate, exemplified by the 400 megawatts added in Q1 2026, is under scrutiny to determine if it will surpass this 3.8 GW mark by the close of Q3 [1].
8. How does CoreWeave's projected power capacity growth rate for 2026 compare to the data center expansion plans of competitors like AWS and Microsoft Azure?
| CoreWeave active capacity by end of 2026 | more than 1.7 GW (gigawatts) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| CoreWeave contracted capacity as of Q1 2026 | surpassed 3.5 GW (gigawatts) [1][4][5] |
| Microsoft added capacity in Q2 FY26 | approximately 1 GW (gigawatts) [6][7][8] |
CoreWeave projects significant power capacity growth, aiming to double active capacity. The company is on track to double its active power capacity to more than 1.7 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2026, an increase from 850 megawatts (MW) at the end of 2025 [1][2][3]. Furthermore, CoreWeave's total contracted power capacity already exceeded 3.5 GW as of Q1 2026, with an ambitious long-term target of surpassing 8 GW by 2030 [1][4][5].
Hyperscalers like Microsoft are expanding at a much faster pace. In comparison, hyperscale cloud providers such as Microsoft are expanding their data center capacity more rapidly, adding capacity on the scale of gigawatts per quarter. Microsoft, for example, added approximately 1 GW of new data center capacity in Q2 FY26 alone [6][7][8]. Both CoreWeave and major hyperscalers, including AWS and Microsoft, reportedly face similar constraints in their expansion efforts, such as power availability, grid interconnection queues, and construction timelines [7][8]. The research did not provide specific power capacity expansion plans or growth rates for AWS for 2026.
Sources (8)
- 1CRWV Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 2CRWV Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 3CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
- 4CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.coreweave.com
- 5CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
- 6AI Cloud Infrastructure Race 2026: AWS vs Azure vs Google Cloud - NeuralCoreTechneuralcoretech.com
- 7Microsoft AI Capex in 2026: The $190 Billion Bet on Azure, Data Centers, and OpenAI | Value Add VCvalueaddvc.com
- 8AI power demand hits regulatory tipping pointfierce-network.com
9. What public data from energy grid operators or public utility commissions can be used to track CoreWeave's new data center power interconnections ahead of Q3 2026?
| CoreWeave Capacity Target | Over 1.7 GW by end of 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Primary Tracking Mechanism | Interconnection queues from ISOs, RTOs, and non-ISO utilities [3][4][5] |
| Critical Tracking Source | PUCs and state-level dockets for large-load tariffs [6][7] |
To track CoreWeave's new data center power interconnections ahead of Q3 2026, public data from energy grid operators and Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) are essential. Publicly available interconnection queues from Independent System Operators (ISOs), Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), and non-ISO utilities serve as the primary method for monitoring new data center power requests [3][4][5]. Aggregation platforms like Interconnection.fyi compile these queues, though it is noted that many load-side requests may be opaque or speculative [3].
Public Utility Commissions provide crucial insights into data center infrastructure approvals. Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) and state-level dockets and filings are critical for tracking approvals related to large-load tariffs, generation interconnection agreements, and infrastructure expansions specifically for major data center developers [6][7]. These sources are particularly relevant given CoreWeave's plans to significantly expand its active capacity to over 1.7 GW by the end of 2026 [1][2].
Sources (7)
- 1CoreWeave Financials — revenue, customer concentration, capex, RPO from SEC 10-K filingsmungomash.com
- 2CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 3Latest Interconnection Queue Requests with daily data updates...interconnection.fyi
- 4Interconnection Request Queue - ISO New Englandiso-ne.com
- 5Nvidia Rubin Reveals Power as AI's Real Bottleneck | TechFastForwardtechfastforward.com
- 6Large Load Projects and Tariffs (June 2026)eei.org
- 7Grid Infrastructure Expansion for Data Centers | mike bommaritomichaelbommarito.com
10. How might the challenging debt market conditions, evidenced by CoreWeave's sweetened loan terms in July 2026, impact the pace of their capital deployment for the remainder of Q3?
| Loan Sweetened Terms Date | late July 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Loan Amount | $2.6 billion [1] |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures Guidance | $30–$35 billion [1][2][3] |
CoreWeave adjusted loan terms reflecting cautious AI debt market conditions. In late July 2026, CoreWeave sweetened the terms of its $2.6 billion loan, increasing the interest rate spread by up to 1.25 percentage points and lowering the price to 97 cents per dollar [1]. This adjustment signals reduced investor appetite for AI-linked debt and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of borrowing within the AI infrastructure market. Broader debt market conditions for AI infrastructure are characterized by wider credit spreads and higher borrowing costs [1][4][5].
Challenging debt conditions might slow CoreWeave's aggressive Q3 capital deployment. The current difficult debt market could compel CoreWeave to prioritize maintaining liquidity, potentially leading to a slower pace of capital deployment for new data center projects during the remainder of Q3 2026 [1][4][5]. CoreWeave has guided 2026 capital expenditures of $30 billion to $35 billion, with an objective to double its active power capacity to over 1.7 GW by the end of 2026 [1][2][3]. While the cost of capital has risen, the company's reliance on take-or-pay contracts with major clients provides revenue predictability, which partially mitigates financing risks for existing capacity deployments [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
- 1CoreWeave Sweetens $2.6B AI Loan Terms as Enthusiasm Ebbsbriefs.co
- 2CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 3CoreWeave Guides $12 Billion to $13 Billion Revenue for 2026: What Is Driving 140 Percent Growthkalkine.com
- 4Sector Insights: Tech Hardware & AI Infrastructure Q1’26 Review | Octusoctus.com
- 5CoreWeave 850 Million Junk Bond at 3x Oversubscription Signals Compressed AI Credit Spreadsrockstarmarkets.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) has substantially expanded its power footprint. By Q3 2025, active power reached 590 MW, with total contracted power capacity increasing to 2.9 GW [1][2][3][4][5]. As of mid-2026, the company surpassed 1 GW of active power and holds over 3.5 GW in total contracted power capacity. CoreWeave has a long-term goal of reaching 8 GW by 2030 [6][7]. These efforts align with aggressive data center self-build initiatives [8][9].
Upcoming market catalysts include CoreWeave's Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for August 11, 2026. Market analysts project a loss of $1.27 per share and revenue of $2.56 billion for the quarter [8][10]. Other notable events for 2026 are Nasdaq-100 inclusion in June 2026 and strategic supply agreements, such as those with Solidigm and NVIDIA [8][9].
Bullish sentiment is largely driven by a massive revenue backlog, which approached $100 billion as of Q1 2026, and strategic GPU supply [9][10]. Conversely, significant bearish risks include high projected capital expenditure of $31–35 billion for 2026 and potential margin pressure from elevated cash burn [9][10].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 10, 2027
- Closes: March 10, 2027
Sources (10)
- 1CoreWeave Q3 earnings show revenue backlog doubled to $55.6bndatacenterdynamics.com
- 2CoreWeave (CRWV) Q3 earnings report 2025cnbc.com
- 3CoreWeave (CRWV) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 4CoreWeave Earnings Call Transcript - [Q3 FY 2025] | Bullfincherbullfincher.io
- 5CoreWeave growth surges despite capex delayrcrtech.com
- 6CoreWeave aims to add 5GW more data center capacity by 2030, anticipates capex in 2026 to double - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 7CoreWeave surpasses 1GW of data center capacity, pushes more into self builds - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
- 8Coreweave Draws Attention Ahead of Earnings and New Capacity Plans - CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 9CoreWeave Just Added $32 Billion to Its AI Backlog Ahead of Joining the Nasdaq-100. Is CRWV a Buy at $117? - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 10CoreWeave Stock Surges 18% on $2.8 Billion NVIDIA Contract | Fazen Marketsfazen.markets
