Above 12%
Market Model 6.0% 9.0%
Above 10%
Market Model 0.0% 18.0%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (158)
Above 2%
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 3%
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 4675
Market Model 5.0% 2.0%
Above 4575
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Clear+ members in Q3 Kalshi
Above 8.7 million
Market Model 6.0% 0.2%
Above 8.4 million
Market Model 0.0% 1.0%
Above 7%
Market Model 6.0% 0.0%
Above 3%
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 10%
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 12%
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Above 4
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
Above 5
Market Model 0.0% 0.4%
Above 410
Market Model 5.0% 0.2%
Above 370
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
Above 5275
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Above 5325
Market Model 5.0% 0.7%
Above 117%
Market Model 6.0% 0.0%
Above 111%
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Above $21.5 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Above $22 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Above 91 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 91.5 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 1560
Market Model 83.0% 72.2%
Above 1580
Market Model 49.0% 35.2%
Above $23.4 billion
Market Model 5.0% 0.2%
Above $22 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.4%
Above 4%
Market Model 9.0% 5.0%
Above 1%
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 3.8 gw
Market Model 0.0% 0.6%
Above 4 gw
Market Model 0.0% 0.5%
CoreWeave data centers in Q3 Kalshi
Above 53
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Above 54
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Chewy active customers in Q2 Kalshi
Above 21.8 million
Market Model 4.0% 0.5%
Above 21.6 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 835
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 840
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 218
Market Model 6.0% 1.0%
Above 200
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 11%
Market Model 6.0% 5.0%
Above 3%
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Ulta comparable sales in Q3 Kalshi
Above 7.5%
Market Model 5.0% 0.1%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
Toast total locations in Q3 Kalshi
Above 192 thousand
Market Model 6.0% 15.0%
Above 194 thousand
Market Model 7.0% 5.0%
Above 12 twh
Market Model 0.0% 2.0%
Above 12.5 twh
Market Model 0.0% 1.8%
Above 16 million
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
Above 12.5 million
Market Model 0.0% 7.0%
Above 81 million
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Above 69 million
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 78 million
Market Model 6.0% 20.0%
Above 66 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Sea Limited Shopee GMV in Q3 Kalshi
Above $36 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Above $36.5 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Match total payers in Q3 Kalshi
Above 13.2 million
Market Model 88.0% 0.2%
Above 12.6 million
Market Model 0.0% 0.5%
Above 3%
Market Model 25.0% 3.2%
Above 10%
Market Model 4.0% 2.0%
Above 2%
Market Model 69.0% 7.0%
Above 0.5%
Market Model 89.0% 87.4%
Above 3300 mboed
Market Model 85.0% 77.3%
Above 3350 mboed
Market Model 63.0% 59.1%
Above 4.1 million
Market Model 7.0% 1.4%
Above 3.8 million
Market Model 69.0% 45.0%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 20.0% 100.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 67.0% 100.0%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 3.7%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 15.0% 13.4%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 8.0% 5.0%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 29.0% 15.1%
OpenAI
Market Model 24.0% 25.7%
Anthropic
Market Model 70.0% 71.6%
Above 2%
Market Model 50.0% 3.0%
Above 4%
Market Model 11.0% 1.0%
Above 17%
Market Model 2.0% 0.2%
Above 12%
Market Model 15.0% 0.7%
Above 136 million
Market Model 42.0% 0.4%
Above 132 million
Market Model 85.0% 1.0%
Ferrari shipments in Q3 Kalshi
Above 3425
Market Model 12.0% 0.2%
Above 3400
Market Model 14.0% 0.3%
Above 1130
Market Model 8.0% 3.0%
Above 1060
Market Model 95.0% 77.0%
Above 900 thousand
Market Model 75.0% 0.0%
Above 880 thousand
Market Model 86.0% 0.0%
Above 15.5 billion
Market Model 28.0% 0.2%
Above 15.25 billion
Market Model 58.0% 0.3%
Above 1.84 million
Market Model 8.0% 5.0%
Above 1.845 million
Market Model 5.0% 3.0%
Above 2%
Market Model 15.0% 12.0%
Above 0%
Market Model 90.0% 12.0%
Above $16 billion
Market Model 45.0% 20.0%
Above $18 billion
Market Model 29.0% 20.0%
Above 58.5 million
Market Model 7.0% 0.7%
Above 60.5 million
Market Model 9.0% 0.3%
Above 3700 mw
Market Model 98.0% 20.0%
Above 3800 mw
Market Model 95.0% 20.0%
Above 9.5 million
Market Model 9.0% 0.0%
Above 9 million
Market Model 11.0% 0.0%
Amazon headcount in Q3 Kalshi
Above 1.54 million
Market Model 97.0% 1.0%
Above 1.56 million
Market Model 88.0% 0.5%
Above 3360
Market Model 68.0% 65.1%
Above 3320
Market Model 88.0% 84.3%
Above 18%
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
Above 16%
Market Model 9.0% 9.7%
Above -6%
Market Model 59.0% 59.7%
Above -12%
Market Model 96.0% 94.2%
Above -2%
Market Model 48.0% 25.6%
Above 0%
Market Model 35.0% 14.3%
Above 7%
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
Above 6%
Market Model 23.0% 20.2%
Above 41800
Market Model 12.0% 15.0%
Above 41500
Market Model 63.0% 73.9%
Meta headcount in Q3 Kalshi
Above 77 thousand
Market Model 1.0% 3.2%
Above 69 thousand
Market Model 57.0% 26.3%
Above 3.69 billion
Market Model 8.0% 38.9%
Above 3.64 billion
Market Model 46.0% 38.9%
Robinhood gold subs in Q3 Kalshi
Above 4.9 million
Market Model 99.0% 93.1%
Above 4.8 million
Market Model 99.0% 93.1%
Above 29.5 million
Market Model 40.0% 25.9%
Above 29.4 million
Market Model 47.0% 38.5%
Above 200000
Market Model 90.0% 93.5%
Above 215000
Market Model 25.0% 53.6%
Above 4290
Market Model 16.0% 24.0%
Above 4320
Market Model 5.0% 2.0%
Above 2%
Market Model 40.0% 34.2%
Above 1%
Market Model 64.0% 36.2%
Above 5%
Market Model 18.0% 13.1%
Above 4%
Market Model 97.0% 49.4%
Uber trips in Q3 Kalshi
Above 4.1 billion
Market Model 60.0% 51.9%
Above 3.95 billion
Market Model 98.0% 90.8%
Above 494 million
Market Model 60.0% 41.4%
Above 500 million
Market Model 23.0% 16.9%
Roblox hours engaged in Q3 Kalshi
Above 36 billion
Market Model 41.0% 62.9%
Above 39 billion
Market Model 13.0% 40.4%
Above 146 million
Market Model 29.0% 23.8%
Above 158 million
Market Model 13.0% 8.6%
Above 3.3 billion
Market Model 49.0% 60.0%
Above 3.2 billion
Market Model 59.0% 78.3%
Lyft total rides in Q3 Kalshi
Above 270 million
Market Model 23.0% 18.5%
Above 268 million
Market Model 53.0% 29.3%
Above 400 million
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Above 405 million
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Above 4.15 million
Market Model 14.0% 7.5%
Above 3.95 million
Market Model 85.0% 68.6%
Above 1725
Market Model 90.0% 90.0%
Above 1750
Market Model 87.0% 87.1%
Above 13.9 million
Market Model 8.0% 7.5%
Above 13.7 million
Market Model 20.0% 16.3%
Above 60 million
Market Model 78.0% 56.2%
Above 59.5 million
Market Model 83.0% 70.1%
Above 3.6 million
Market Model 83.0% 36.6%
Above 3.4 million
Market Model 94.0% 54.2%
Above 7%
Market Model 61.0% 39.6%
Above 6%
Market Model 83.0% 72.2%
Above 325 thousand
Market Model 8.0% 7.4%
Above 175 thousand
Market Model 80.0% 83.0%
CAVA total restaurants in Q3 Kalshi
Above 494
Market Model 99.0% 47.6%
Above 492
Market Model 82.0% 82.0%
Above 882 thousand
Market Model 35.0% 25.9%
Above 885 thousand
Market Model 19.0% 18.1%
Above 300 million
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
Above 304 million
Market Model 99.0% 78.0%
Above 802 million
Market Model 23.0% 9.0%
Above 792 million
Market Model 99.0% 46.5%
Above $122 billion
Market Model 27.0% 10.5%
Above $113 billion
Market Model 79.0% 61.1%
Above 46700
Market Model 25.0% 45.8%
Above 46400
Market Model 81.0% 86.3%
Above 2.5%
Market Model 48.0% 38.3%
Above 1.5%
Market Model 76.0% 38.5%
Above 57 million
Market Model 68.0% 48.4%
Above 58 million
Market Model 31.0% 15.3%
Above $210
Market Model 88.0% 87.6%
Above $225
Market Model 51.0% 58.0%
Above 125 million
Market Model 27.0% 29.4%
Above 128 million
Market Model 4.0% 0.9%
Above 15%
Market Model 35.0% 24.0%
Above 14%
Market Model 55.0% 44.4%
DoorDash total orders in Q3 Kalshi
Above 990 million
Market Model 65.0% 61.0%
Above 1000 million
Market Model 37.0% 25.0%
Above 35
Market Model 67.0% 57.4%
Above 55
Market Model 10.0% 2.3%
Intel headcount in Q3 Kalshi
Above 80 thousand
Market Model 68.0% 73.6%
Above 80.5 thousand
Market Model 61.0% 37.6%
Google headcount in Q3 Kalshi
Above 202 thousand
Market Model 66.0% 59.2%
Above 207 thousand
Market Model 3.0% 25.0%
Above 159 million
Market Model 3.0% 23.9%
Above 158.5 million
Market Model 5.0% 27.0%
Above 84%
Market Model 75.0% 47.6%
Above 84.5%
Market Model 49.0% 31.1%
Above 84%
Market Model 94.0% 70.1%
Above 85.5%
Market Model 59.0% 6.0%
Paramount
Market Model 65.0% 52.5%
Netflix
Market Model 4.0% 4.1%
Above 41 million
Market Model 6.0% 7.8%
Above 41.1 million
Market Model 8.0% 5.4%
Above 4%
Market Model 19.0% 44.0%
Above 2%
Market Model 57.0% 52.2%
Above 7240
Market Model 99.0% 98.0%
Above 7290
Market Model 33.0% 13.7%
Above 50.5 million
Market Model 60.0% 0.5%
Above 50 million
Market Model 68.0% 0.5%
Above 172
Market Model 67.0% 88.0%
Above 174
Market Model 50.0% 82.0%
Above -6%
Market Model 9.0% 6.9%
Above -2%
Market Model 3.0% 4.2%
Above 3%
Market Model 95.0% 98.8%
Above 4.5%
Market Model 30.0% 28.7%
Above 818
Market Model 2.0% 2.5%
Above 812
Market Model 11.0% 16.9%
Above 2%
Market Model 21.0% 15.4%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 1.0% 2.4%
Tesla total deliveries in Q3 Kalshi
Above 500000
Market Model 47.0% 38.9%
Above 520000
Market Model 20.0% 7.8%
Above 2700
Market Model 25.0% 47.1%
Above 2600
Market Model 91.0% 83.3%
Above 3%
Market Model 57.0% 33.2%
Above 2%
Market Model 77.0% 55.4%
Above 1000
Market Model 35.0% 47.6%
Above 5000
Market Model 8.0% 21.0%
Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
Market Model 84.0% 96.5%
Above 20 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
Market Model 43.0% 78.2%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 47.0% 50.4%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 5.0% 5.5%
4.19 million
Market Model 56.0% 27.1%
4.65 million
Market Model 11.0% 3.9%
Above 124 million
Market Model 16.0% 9.3%
Above 120 million
Market Model 50.0% 32.4%
Above 835
Market Model 45.0% 43.0%
Above 815
Market Model 94.0% 88.5%
Above 60 million
Market Model 96.0% 98.8%
Above 74 million
Market Model 4.0% 6.2%
Above 15000
Market Model 74.0% 64.8%
Above 16000
Market Model 62.0% 52.7%
Above 222 million
Market Model 60.0% 49.6%
Above 220 million
Market Model 91.0% 89.5%
above 125 million
Market Model 2.0% 1.1%
above 122 million
Market Model 39.0% 34.8%
Above 2.72 million
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Above 2.62 million
Market Model 95.0% 96.4%
Above 450 million
Market Model 31.0% 17.3%
Above 440 million
Market Model 90.0% 85.7%
Above 5%
Market Model 67.0% 16.3%
Above 6%
Market Model 45.0% 4.2%
Above 5%
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 1.0% 3.2%
Above 25.2 million
Market Model 4.0% 8.6%
Above 25 million
Market Model 14.0% 14.7%
CAVA restaurants in Q2 Kalshi
Above 480
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Above 475
Market Model 90.0% 63.6%
Above 3%
Market Model 7.0% 99.3%
Above 9%
Market Model 30.0% 56.2%
Above 36%
Market Model 12.0% 5.3%
Above 21%
Market Model 97.0% 93.6%
Above 87%
Market Model 32.0% 7.8%
Above 86%
Market Model 84.0% 42.1%
Tesla total production in Q3 Kalshi
Above 460000
Market Model 87.0% 59.8%
Above 430000
Market Model 99.0% 93.2%
Nu Holdings customers in Q2 Kalshi
Above 137 million
Market Model 98.0% 99.0%
Above 138 million
Market Model 90.0% 96.8%
Above 510 thousand
Market Model 38.0% 56.2%
Above 540 thousand
Market Model 27.0% 21.0%
Webull funded accounts in Q2 Kalshi
Above 5.2 million
Market Model 46.0% 28.1%
Above 5.25 million
Market Model 23.0% 7.9%
Information Technology
Market Model 81.0% 78.7%
Unassigned
Market Model 10.0% 8.8%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Real Estate
Market Model 1.0% 0.9%
Information Technology
Market Model 90.0% 75.7%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
OpenAI
Market Model 3.0% 19.9%
Meta
Market Model 2.0% 13.4%
Yes
Market Model 96.0% 100.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 10.0% 7.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 14.0% 7.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 18.0% 17.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 16.9%
Before Feb 1, 2027
Market Model 16.0% 10.9%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 16.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 15.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 0.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 0.0%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 8.1%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 8.1%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 16.0% 11.9%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 18.0% 11.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 19.0% 14.7%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 35.0% 33.8%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 8.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 55.0% 36.7%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 15.0% 7.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 32.0% 18.1%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 6.4%
Spirit Airlines
Market Model 6.0% 2.2%
Anduril
Market Model 32.0% 19.5%
Citigroup
Market Model 41.0% 27.9%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 31.0% 18.6%
Mango
Market Model 9.0% 2.4%
Mint
Market Model 30.0% 11.8%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 29.0% 17.3%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 10.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medtronic cardiovascular organic growth in Q1 Top outcome: Above 12% | 6.0% | 9.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Dick's Sporting Goods comparable sales in Q2 Top outcome: Above 2% | 0.0% | 20.0% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in Q2 Top outcome: Above 4675 | 5.0% | 2.0% | Med | $1 | Refresh |
| Clear+ members in Q3 Top outcome: Above 8.7 million | 6.0% | 0.2% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Williams-Sonoma brand growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 7% | 6.0% | 0.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Victoria's Secret comparable sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 10% | 0.0% | 12.0% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| Rocket Lab vehicles launched in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4 | 0.0% | 0.7% | Med | $0 | Refresh |
| UiPath customers with arr of at least $1m in Q2 Top outcome: Above 410 | 5.0% | 0.2% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q2 Top outcome: Above 5275 | 22.0% | 21.9% | High | $201 | Refresh |
| Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in Q3 Top outcome: Above 117% | 6.0% | 0.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| MercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $21.5 billion | 0.0% | 0.1% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| MercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 91 million | 0.0% | 20.0% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| GitLab customers with arr over $100k in Q2 Top outcome: Above 1560 | 83.0% | 72.2% | High | $601 | Refresh |
| eBay gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $23.4 billion | 5.0% | 0.2% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Dollar General same-store sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| CoreWeave power capacity in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.8 gw | 0.0% | 0.6% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| CoreWeave data centers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 53 | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| Chewy active customers in Q2 Top outcome: Above 21.8 million | 4.0% | 0.5% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 Top outcome: Above 835 | 0.0% | 20.0% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| Zeta super-scaled customers (>$1m) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 218 | 6.0% | 1.0% | High | $52 | Refresh |
| Urban Outfitters comparable sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 11% | 6.0% | 5.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Ulta comparable sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 7.5% | 5.0% | 0.1% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Toast total locations in Q3 Top outcome: Above 192 thousand | 6.0% | 15.0% | High | $177 | Refresh |
| Talen Energy TWh generation in Q3 Top outcome: Above 12 twh | 0.0% | 2.0% | Med | $0 | Refresh |
| Starlink active subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 16 million | 9.0% | 7.0% | Med | $1 | Refresh |
| Sea Limited Garena paying users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 81 million | 7.0% | 2.0% | Med | $1 | Refresh |
| Sea Limited Garena paying users in Q4 Top outcome: Above 78 million | 6.0% | 20.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Sea Limited Shopee GMV in Q3 Top outcome: Above $36 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| Match total payers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 13.2 million | 88.0% | 0.2% | High | $28 | Refresh |
| Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3% | 25.0% | 3.2% | High | $1,648 | Refresh |
| Target comparable sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2% | 69.0% | 7.0% | High | $582.01 | Refresh |
| Petrobras total production (Mboed) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3300 mboed | 85.0% | 77.3% | High | $5,423.02 | Refresh |
| Futu total funded accounts in Q2 Top outcome: Above 4.1 million | 7.0% | 1.4% | High | $6,342.57 | Refresh |
| When will Oura officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 20.0% | 100.0% | High | $27,405.73 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 3.7% | High | $1,048,638.77 | Refresh |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $470,371.12 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.5% | High | $1,170,310.79 | Refresh |
| Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 24.0% | 25.7% | Med | $2,123,598.33 | Refresh |
| KFC same-store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2% | 50.0% | 3.0% | Med | $1,514 | Refresh |
| Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 Top outcome: Above 17% | 2.0% | 0.2% | High | $30,292.6 | Refresh |
| Reddit daily active uniques in Q3 Top outcome: Above 136 million | 42.0% | 0.4% | Med | $1,497 | Refresh |
| Ferrari shipments in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3425 | 12.0% | 0.2% | High | $6,346.36 | Refresh |
| Palantir total customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1130 | 8.0% | 3.0% | High | $401.89 | Refresh |
| Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q3 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand | 75.0% | 0.0% | Med | $3,467.49 | Refresh |
| Altria Group cigarette shipments in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15.5 billion | 28.0% | 0.2% | High | $976.5 | Refresh |
| Marriott International total rooms in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1.84 million | 8.0% | 5.0% | High | $3,374.24 | Refresh |
| Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 2% | 15.0% | 12.0% | High | $445 | Refresh |
| Robinhood event contracts trading volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $16 billion | 45.0% | 20.0% | High | $10,100.53 | Refresh |
| Grab monthly transacting users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 58.5 million | 7.0% | 0.7% | High | $375 | Refresh |
| First Solar module volume sold in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3700 mw | 98.0% | 20.0% | High | $19,219.79 | Refresh |
| Coinbase monthly transacting users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 9.5 million | 9.0% | 0.0% | High | $251.99 | Refresh |
| Amazon headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1.54 million | 97.0% | 1.0% | High | $9,018.02 | Refresh |
| Wingstop total restaurants in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3360 | 68.0% | 65.1% | High | $3,215.25 | Refresh |
| Meta ad impressions growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 18% | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | $952.55 | Refresh |
| Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above -6% | 59.0% | 59.7% | High | $1,208.8 | Refresh |
| Wingstop domestic same store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above -2% | 48.0% | 25.6% | High | $892.33 | Refresh |
| Starbucks comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027 Top outcome: Above 7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | High | $1,063.01 | Refresh |
| Starbucks total global stores in Q1 2027 Top outcome: Above 41800 | 12.0% | 15.0% | High | $1,250.56 | Refresh |
| Meta headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 77 thousand | 1.0% | 3.2% | High | $5,023.63 | Refresh |
| Meta family daily active people in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.69 billion | 8.0% | 38.9% | Med | $107.33 | Refresh |
| Robinhood gold subs in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.9 million | 99.0% | 93.1% | High | $6,807.79 | Refresh |
| Robinhood funded customers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 29.5 million | 40.0% | 25.9% | High | $17,560.59 | Refresh |
| Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 200000 | 90.0% | 93.5% | High | $7,407.88 | Refresh |
| Chipotle total restaurant count in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4290 | 16.0% | 24.0% | High | $3,336.52 | Refresh |
| Chipotle comparable restaurant sales increase in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2% | 40.0% | 34.2% | High | $1,771.08 | Refresh |
| Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 5% | 18.0% | 13.1% | High | $1,442.88 | Refresh |
| Uber trips in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.1 billion | 60.0% | 51.9% | High | $1,204.98 | Refresh |
| Snap daily active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 494 million | 60.0% | 41.4% | High | $4,441.51 | Refresh |
| Roblox hours engaged in Q3 Top outcome: Above 36 billion | 41.0% | 62.9% | High | $13,439.83 | Refresh |
| Roblox daily active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 146 million | 29.0% | 23.8% | High | $3,371.69 | Refresh |
| Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.3 billion | 49.0% | 60.0% | High | $6,002.67 | Refresh |
| Lyft total rides in Q3 Top outcome: Above 270 million | 23.0% | 18.5% | High | $2,401.56 | Refresh |
| Home Depot customer transactions in Q3 Top outcome: Above 400 million | 15.0% | 15.0% | High | $845.66 | Refresh |
| Futu total funded accounts in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4.15 million | 14.0% | 7.5% | High | $528.04 | Refresh |
| Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Top outcome: Above 1725 | 90.0% | 90.0% | High | $97.04 | Refresh |
| Duolingo paid subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 13.9 million | 8.0% | 7.5% | High | $4,589.87 | Refresh |
| Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 60 million | 78.0% | 56.2% | High | $2,938.51 | Refresh |
| DraftKings average monthly unique payers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 3.6 million | 83.0% | 36.6% | High | $9,286.84 | Refresh |
| DraftKings sportsbook margin in Q3 Top outcome: Above 7% | 61.0% | 39.6% | High | $2,745.04 | Refresh |
| Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q3 Top outcome: Above 325 thousand | 8.0% | 7.4% | High | $2,334.99 | Refresh |
| CAVA total restaurants in Q3 Top outcome: Above 494 | 99.0% | 47.6% | High | $9,443.4 | Refresh |
| Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q3 Top outcome: Above 882 thousand | 35.0% | 25.9% | High | $4,329.71 | Refresh |
| Spotify premium subscribers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 300 million | 99.0% | 82.0% | High | $2,567.89 | Refresh |
| Spotify monthly active users in Q3 Top outcome: Above 802 million | 23.0% | 9.0% | High | $1,520.41 | Refresh |
| Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q3 Top outcome: Above $122 billion | 27.0% | 10.5% | High | $4,256.73 | Refresh |
| McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q3 2026 Top outcome: Above 46700 | 25.0% | 45.8% | Med | $2,243.8 | Refresh |
| McDonald's Corporation global comparable sales growth in Q3 2026 Top outcome: Above 2.5% | 48.0% | 38.3% | High | $1,569.24 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q3 Top outcome: Above 57 million | 68.0% | 48.4% | High | $5,291.96 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q3 Top outcome: Above $210 | 88.0% | 87.6% | High | $7,296.9 | Refresh |
| Klarna active klarna consumers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 125 million | 27.0% | 29.4% | High | $1,164.24 | Refresh |
| Google search paid clicks change in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15% | 35.0% | 24.0% | High | $5,559.14 | Refresh |
| DoorDash total orders in Q3 Top outcome: Above 990 million | 65.0% | 61.0% | High | $2,428.28 | Refresh |
| Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 35 | 67.0% | 57.4% | High | $14,420.53 | Refresh |
| Intel headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 80 thousand | 68.0% | 73.6% | High | $7,964.15 | Refresh |
| Google headcount in Q3 Top outcome: Above 202 thousand | 66.0% | 59.2% | High | $4,231.16 | Refresh |
| American Express cards-in-force in Q3 Top outcome: Above 159 million | 3.0% | 23.9% | High | $50,600.59 | Refresh |
| Alaska Air passenger load factor in Q3 Top outcome: Above 84% | 75.0% | 47.6% | High | $20,911.97 | Refresh |
| American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3 Top outcome: Above 84% | 94.0% | 70.1% | High | $24,068.65 | Refresh |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 65.0% | 52.5% | High | $4,030,738.21 | Refresh |
| Charles Schwab active brokerage accounts in Q3 Top outcome: Above 41 million | 6.0% | 7.8% | High | $4,941.96 | Refresh |
| Domino's US same store sales growth in Q3 Top outcome: Above 4% | 19.0% | 44.0% | High | $1,458.5 | Refresh |
| Domino's total US stores in Q3 Top outcome: Above 7240 | 99.0% | 98.0% | High | $9,267.01 | Refresh |
| United Airlines passengers in Q3 Top outcome: Above 50.5 million | 60.0% | 0.5% | High | $1,383.47 | Refresh |
| Boeing commercial deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 172 | 67.0% | 88.0% | High | $9,823 | Refresh |
| Lululemon Americas comparable sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above -6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | High | $21,961.6 | Refresh |
| Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 Top outcome: Above 3% | 95.0% | 98.8% | High | $10,233.88 | Refresh |
| Urban Outfitters total stores in Q2 Top outcome: Above 818 | 2.0% | 2.5% | High | $2,624.99 | Refresh |
| Ulta transactions growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 2% | 21.0% | 15.4% | High | $9,142.99 | Refresh |
| Tesla total deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 500000 | 47.0% | 38.9% | Med | $6,032.1 | Refresh |
| Toll Brothers delivered homes in Q3 Top outcome: Above 2700 | 25.0% | 47.1% | High | $11,037.52 | Refresh |
| Target transactions change in Q2 Top outcome: Above 3% | 57.0% | 33.2% | High | $3,902.74 | Refresh |
| How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026? Top outcome: Above 1000 | 35.0% | 47.6% | High | $143,323.51 | Refresh |
| How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter | 84.0% | 96.5% | High | $31,673.09 | Refresh |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 47.0% | 50.4% | High | $98,105.48 | Refresh |
| Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average? Top outcome: 4.19 million | 56.0% | 27.1% | High | $11,558.97 | Refresh |
| Constellation Brands total beer shipments in Q2 Top outcome: Above 124 million | 16.0% | 9.3% | High | $357.88 | Refresh |
| Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q2 2027 Top outcome: Above 835 | 45.0% | 43.0% | High | $8,752.59 | Refresh |
| Sea Garena paying users in Q2 Top outcome: Above 60 million | 96.0% | 98.8% | High | $13,304.4 | Refresh |
| Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q3 Top outcome: Above 15000 | 74.0% | 64.8% | High | $3,655.82 | Refresh |
| Lowe's customer transactions in Q2 Top outcome: Above 222 million | 60.0% | 49.6% | High | $12,524.68 | Refresh |
| Klarna active consumers in Q2 Top outcome: above 125 million | 2.0% | 1.1% | High | $12,009.3 | Refresh |
| Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2 Top outcome: Above 2.72 million | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | $87,751.86 | Refresh |
| Home Depot customer transactions in Q2 Top outcome: Above 450 million | 31.0% | 17.3% | High | $5,023.25 | Refresh |
| Dollarama comparable store sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 5% | 67.0% | 16.3% | High | $3,736.38 | Refresh |
| Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | High | $81,634.8 | Refresh |
| Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q3 Top outcome: Above 25.2 million | 4.0% | 8.6% | High | $7,140.04 | Refresh |
| CAVA restaurants in Q2 Top outcome: Above 480 | 6.0% | 5.5% | High | $56,818.87 | Refresh |
| CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 3% | 7.0% | 99.3% | High | $6,977.66 | Refresh |
| Aritzia comparable sales growth in Q2 Top outcome: Above 36% | 12.0% | 5.3% | High | $974.63 | Refresh |
| Air Canada passenger load factor in Q2 Top outcome: Above 87% | 32.0% | 7.8% | High | $69,981.01 | Refresh |
| Tesla total production in Q3 Top outcome: Above 460000 | 87.0% | 59.8% | High | $3,769 | Refresh |
| Nu Holdings customers in Q2 Top outcome: Above 137 million | 98.0% | 99.0% | High | $13,861.09 | Refresh |
| Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3 Top outcome: Above 510 thousand | 38.0% | 56.2% | High | $7,819.57 | Refresh |
| Webull funded accounts in Q2 Top outcome: Above 5.2 million | 46.0% | 28.1% | High | $5,218.76 | Refresh |
| What sector will Anthropic be assigned to? Top outcome: Information Technology | 81.0% | 78.7% | High | $21,954.1 | Refresh |
| When will Skims officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.5% | High | $23,338.51 | Refresh |
| What sector will OpenAI be assigned to? Top outcome: Real Estate | 1.0% | 0.9% | High | $24,148.16 | Refresh |
| When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | $30,640.33 | Refresh |
| When will Airtable officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 23.0% | 13.5% | High | $2,444.19 | Refresh |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 3.0% | 19.9% | High | $225,575.05 | Refresh |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 96.0% | 100.0% | High | $454,127.67 | Refresh |
| When will Glean officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10.0% | 7.6% | High | $1,166 | Refresh |
| When will Rippling officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 2.0% | High | $2,878.43 | Refresh |
| When will Anduril officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25.0% | 16.9% | High | $84,756.93 | Refresh |
| When will Beast Industries officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 25.0% | 16.0% | High | $7,633.29 | Refresh |
| When will Brex officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 0.0% | High | $7,182.29 | Refresh |
| When will Cluely officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 4.0% | High | $3,281.11 | Refresh |
| When will Deel officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 8.1% | High | $16,033.34 | Refresh |
| When will Olipop officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 16.0% | 11.9% | High | $3,305.29 | Refresh |
| When will Whoop officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 14.7% | High | $5,992.65 | Refresh |
| When will Stripe officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 8.6% | High | $35,798.04 | Refresh |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 55.0% | 36.7% | High | $47,920.22 | Refresh |
| When will AppsFlyer officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 15.0% | 7.5% | High | $964.01 | Refresh |
| When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 8.7% | High | $31,729.73 | Refresh |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? Top outcome: Spirit Airlines | 6.0% | 2.2% | Med | $881,008.69 | Refresh |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Citigroup | 41.0% | 27.9% | Med | $104,211.74 | Refresh |
| What flavors will JUUL relaunch? Top outcome: Mango | 9.0% | 2.4% | Med | $51,837.22 | Refresh |
| When will Ramp officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 29.0% | 17.3% | High | $5,857.57 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (75)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Clear+ members in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Uber Trips in Q2? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla production in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Toast total locations in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Spotify headcount in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Starbucks total stores in Q3 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Roku hours streamed in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Roblox hours engaged in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Zyn US shipment volume in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Match total payers in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Meta headcount in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Lyft total rides in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Intel headcount in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Robinhood gold subs in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Google headcount in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
DoorDash total orders in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Boeing Deliveries in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Amazon headcount in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 11500
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 12000
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Tesla deliveries in Q3 Kalshi
Above 400000
Market Model 87.0% 99.2%
Above 380000
Market Model 89.0% 99.4%
Modelo
Market Model 84.0% 84.8%
Coinbase
Market Model 21.0% 8.1%
At least $900
Market Model 83.0% 83.1%
At least $1000
Market Model 51.0% 52.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $30,622.62 | ||
| — | — | High | $37,419.65 | ||
| — | — | High | $33,151.27 | ||
| — | — | High | $82,320.83 | ||
| — | — | High | $42,778.51 | ||
| — | — | High | $26,949.55 | ||
| — | — | High | $26,040.76 | ||
| — | — | High | $59,050.05 | ||
| — | — | High | $106,622.58 | ||
| — | — | High | $252,445.78 | ||
| — | — | High | $383,270.75 | ||
| — | — | High | $841,163.92 | ||
| — | — | High | $62,494.27 | ||
| — | — | High | $113,930.63 | ||
| — | — | High | $16,585.81 | ||
| — | — | High | $24,575.72 | ||
| — | — | High | $6,595.29 | ||
| — | — | High | $19,663.29 | ||
| — | — | High | $80,375.58 | ||
| — | — | High | $47,105.16 | ||
| — | — | High | $127,148.76 | ||
| — | — | High | $166,693.3 | ||
| — | — | High | $55,496.75 | ||
| — | — | High | $30,202.08 | ||
| — | — | High | $25,599.67 | ||
| — | — | High | $120,337.69 | ||
| — | — | High | $82,899.1 | ||
| — | — | High | $41,073.75 | ||
| — | — | High | $43,095.87 | ||
| — | — | High | $179,485.19 | ||
| — | — | High | $65,198.67 | ||
| — | — | High | $84,014.94 | ||
| — | — | High | $127,578.18 | ||
| — | — | High | $74,775.27 | ||
| — | — | High | $31,650.09 | ||
| — | — | High | $45,076.88 | ||
| — | — | High | $180,563.43 | ||
| — | — | High | $66,880.17 | ||
| — | — | High | $43,307.36 | ||
| — | — | High | $65,059.73 | ||
| — | — | High | $66,828.44 | ||
| — | — | High | $52,268.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $38,605.4 | ||
| — | — | High | $31,126.24 | ||
| — | — | High | $63,778.45 | ||
| — | — | High | $28,458.07 | ||
| — | — | High | $10,857.1 | ||
| — | — | High | $53,847.13 | ||
| — | — | High | $58,913.03 | ||
| — | — | High | $423,257.59 | ||
| — | — | High | $37,745.02 | ||
| — | — | High | $84,671.99 | ||
| — | — | High | $28,294.11 | ||
| — | — | High | $10,433.92 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,705.59 | ||
| — | — | High | $71,367.89 | ||
| — | — | High | $91,257.4 | ||
| — | — | High | $49,784.72 | ||
| — | — | High | $21,971.38 | ||
| — | — | High | $47,506.12 | ||
| — | — | High | $109,935.49 | ||
| — | — | High | $50,177.34 | ||
| — | — | High | $205,238.52 | ||
| — | — | High | $492,437.39 | ||
| — | — | High | $24,067.14 | ||
| — | — | High | $107,854.01 | ||
| — | — | High | $70,055.19 | ||
| — | — | High | $43,434.91 | ||
| — | — | High | $146,245.63 | ||
| — | — | High | $55,118.47 | ||
| Rivian Automotive Inc. total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026 Top outcome: Above 11500 | 0.0% | 20.0% | High | $0 | |
| Tesla deliveries in Q3 Top outcome: Above 400000 | 87.0% | 99.2% | High | $360.71 | |
| Which brands will advertise during the World Soccer Cup Final Top outcome: Modelo | 84.0% | 84.8% | Med | $15,401.13 | |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 83.0% | 83.1% | High | $180,787.56 | |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $6,675,610.8 |
