Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3 2027 to be Above 3.4%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is defined by an abrupt, two-stage repricing on extremely low volume. The contract opened and languished at a 1.0% probability before spiking 70.0 percentage points to 71.0% on July 29. No specific news driver is identifiable for this initial move. The following day, July 30, the price climbed another 13.0 percentage points to its current level of 84.0%. This second move appears to be a correction based on research clarifying that Walmart's comparable sales growth for the same quarter in the prior year (Q3 fiscal 2026) was a positive 4.5%, not a significant decline as some market participants may have initially believed.
The total volume of only 54 contracts traded across the market's history indicates an extremely illiquid environment. The major price movements occurred on zero recorded volume, suggesting they were the result of one or two market makers adjusting quotes or a very small trade clearing a thin order book. This lack of participation means the price likely reflects the conviction of a very small number of traders rather than broad market consensus. The price chart shows no established support or resistance levels due to the rapid, vertical nature of the repricing.
Current market sentiment, as reflected by the 84.0% price, is highly confident that the outcome will be YES. However, this reading is tempered by the exceptionally low trading volume. The price action appears less like a gradual accumulation of information and more like a sharp correction of an initial mispricing in an inefficient, thinly traded market. The key takeaway is the dramatic sentiment reversal, from near-zero probability to a high likelihood, driven by clarification of a prior-year data point rather than new fundamental information about the quarter in question.
- Comparable sales growth above 3.8% is likely, aligning with recent performance.
- Exceeding 4.6% comparable growth appears challenging, based on Q1 FY2027 and Q3 FY2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | 58.0% | 81.3% | Model higher by 23.3pp |
| Above 4% | 33.0% | 49.4% | Model higher by 16.4pp |
| Above 4.2% | 15.0% | 42.0% | Model higher by 27.0pp |
| Above 3.6% | 50.0% | 74.7% | Model higher by 24.7pp |
| Above 5% | 10.0% | 13.1% | Model higher by 3.1pp |
Current Context
Walmart's Q3 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales data is not yet public. The U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Q3 fiscal year 2027 has not been reported. Walmart's Q3 FY2027 results are scheduled for release on November 19, 2026, at 7:00 a.m. US/Central. Earnings materials will be available one hour prior, around 6:00 a.m. CT [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Walmart's fiscal Q3 FY2027 covers the period ending October 2026 [8].
Sources (11)
- 1www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
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- 5www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
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- 7Earnings Release (FY26 Q3)stock.walmart.com
- 8Q1 FY27 Earnings Releasecorporate.walmart.com
- 9Walmart Releases Q3 FY26 Earningscorporate.walmart.com
- 10Comp Sales Disclosure (FY26 Q3)stock.walmart.com
- 11Earnings Release (FY26 Q4)stock.walmart.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.4%
📉 July 30, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 50.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The web research indicates that the premise of an 18.0 percentage point drop in Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for Q3 2026 is unsupported by official financial reports [1][2][3]. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 was 4.5%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the prior year, not 18.0 percentage points [1][2][3]. Therefore, no social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors were identified in the provided sources that could explain an unsupported 18.0 percentage point market movement [1][2][3]. Social media was irrelevant as no corresponding event occurred based on the provided data.
Outcome: Above 3.4%
📈 July 29, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 71.0%
What happened: No identifiable primary driver for the 70.0 percentage point spike in the "Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3" prediction market on July 29, 2026, was found in the provided research. News and social media activity on that date discussed general corporate topics, such as stock performance or an ESG report, but did not indicate any catalyst for a significant movement in Q3 comparable sales growth predictions [4]. The Q3 FY2026 comparable sales growth of 4.70% (above 3.4%) was publicly announced on November 20, 2025, well before the market movement date [5]. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a given contract, a YES resolution is triggered if Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3 is above the specific percentage threshold of that contract, whereas a NO resolution occurs if the growth is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on November 19 at 7:00 AM EST, with the relevant Q3 2027 Earnings Call scheduled for November 19 at 8:00 AM ET. The maximum payout date is March 19, 2027, and no special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | $0.66 | $0.42 | 58% |
| Above 3.6% | $0.50 | $0.59 | 50% |
| Above 3.8% | $0.42 | $0.67 | 42% |
| Above 4% | $0.34 | $0.71 | 33% |
| Above 4.6% | $0.20 | $0.89 | 29% |
| Above 4.4% | $0.24 | $0.85 | 23% |
| Above 4.8% | $0.16 | $0.93 | 22% |
| Above 4.2% | $0.22 | $0.83 | 15% |
| Above 5% | $0.09 | $0.98 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Q3 FY26 was 4.5%, with the quarter ending on October 31, 2025 [1][2][3]. This growth was primarily fueled by increases in transaction counts (+1.8%) and average ticket size (+2.7%), alongside significant contributions from e-commerce [3][4]. Following the Q3 FY26 earnings release on November 20, 2025, Walmart announced it had raised its full-year fiscal 2026 net sales growth outlook [1][4][5].
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score50Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. How has Walmart's US comparable sales growth trended in the first half of FY2027 compared to key competitors like Target and Costco?
| Walmart Q1 FY2027 Comparable Sales | 4.1% (excluding fuel) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Walmart FY2027 Sales Growth Guidance | 3.5% to 4.5% (constant currency) [3] |
| Target Q1 FY2026 Comparable Sales | 5.6% [4][5] |
Walmart's Q1 FY2027 comparable sales showed a 4.1% increase. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Walmart U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel, saw a year-over-year increase of 4.1% [1][2]. Based on this Q1 performance, Walmart has reiterated its full-year FY2027 constant currency sales growth guidance, expecting an increase of 3.5% to 4.5% [3]. Information regarding Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth is not available in the provided facts.
Competitor comparable sales data for FY2027's first half is absent. The available data for key competitors such as Target and Costco primarily covers fiscal year 2026, thus preventing a direct comparison for the first half of FY2027. Target reported a comparable sales increase of 5.6% for its first quarter of FY2026, which ended on May 2, 2026 [4][5]. Costco's U.S. comparable sales, adjusted for fuel and foreign exchange, grew by 6.4% in Q1 FY2026, 5.9% in Q2 FY2026, and 6.8% in Q3 FY2026 [6][7]. The research does not provide comparable sales growth data for Target or Costco for any part of fiscal year 2027.
Sources (7)
- 1Earnings Release (FY27 Q1)stock.walmart.com
- 2Q1 FY27 Earnings Presentationcorporate.walmart.com
- 3Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Transcriptcorporate.walmart.com
- 4Target Corporation Reports First Quarter Earningscorporate.target.com
- 5Target Corporation Reports First Quarter Earningscorporate.target.com
- 6Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Second Quarter and Year-to-Date Operating Results for Fiscal 2026 and February Sales Results | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
- 7Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Third Quarter and Year-To-Date Operating Results For Fiscal 2026investor.costco.com
7. Which macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index and retail sales data, are most likely to influence Walmart's sales performance in Q3 2026?
| Q3 FY2026 Revenue Per Share | 22.51 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| July CPI Release Date | August 12, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| July Retail Sales Report Date | August 14, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
Walmart's Q3 2026 sales hinge on essential inflation and retail trends. Its sales performance will be primarily influenced by inflation in essential goods, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) including food-at-home inflation, and monthly retail sales trends [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These factors directly affect consumer purchasing power, average basket size, unit demand, and trade-down behaviors, thereby impacting Walmart US comparable sales growth, excluding fuel [7][8]. Other key macroeconomic indicators, such as core CPI, energy costs including gasoline prices, federal policy adjustments (e.g., tariffs and grocery assistance programs), labor market health, wage growth, and real GDP growth, will collectively determine the sales mix between discretionary and essential goods for the quarter [7][8][9][10].
Key Q3 2026 data releases monitor consumer demand closely. For Q3 2026, crucial macroeconomic releases to monitor are the July, August, and September CPI prints, along with the corresponding advance retail sales reports [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The July CPI is scheduled for release on August 12, 2026, the August CPI on September 11, 2026, and the September CPI on October 14, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Similarly, the July retail sales report is expected on August 14, 2026, the August retail sales report on September 16, 2026, and the September retail sales report on October 15, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Surprises in CPI data and advance retail sales, particularly concerning food inflation and essentials spending, are significant as they offer direct insights into consumer demand [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Data from July and August will provide early indications, with September's data confirming the overall trend for the quarter [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (10)
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- 8Walmart’s Q1 Earnings Signal Consumer Optimization Under Pressure as Fed Watches Soft Landing Data | Macro | based.infobased.info
- 9Walmart wins over broader swath of consumers, but global uncertainty clouds outlook for retailerswashingtontimes.com
- 10Scale, online push and loyalty fees: how Walmart won the year of the tariffs By Reutersinvesting.com
8. What does Walmart's official FY2027 guidance on net sales and operating income imply for Q3 comparable sales growth expectations?
| Q3 2027 Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) guidance | Not specified [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| FY2027 net sales growth guidance (constant currency) | 3.5% to 4.5% [7][8][9][1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| FY2027 adjusted operating income growth guidance (constant currency) | 6.0% to 8.0% [7][8][9][1][2][3][4][5][6] |
Walmart issued full fiscal year 2027 guidance for net sales and operating income. For the full fiscal year 2027, Walmart has provided guidance forecasting net sales growth between 3.5% and 4.5% (in constant currency) and adjusted operating income growth of 6.0% to 8.0% (in constant currency) [7][8][9][1][2][3][4][5][6]. This full-year guidance remained consistent as of May 21, 2026 [9]. It is important to note that Walmart's U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) is a specific metric, distinct from overall net sales or operating income growth [10][11].
Q3 comparable sales expectations cannot be derived from full-year targets. While any Q3 US comparable sales performance must be compatible with the stated FY2027 targets for net sales and adjusted operating income growth, the available evidence is insufficient to precisely quantify the required Q3 contribution [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Furthermore, the full-year operating income growth range cannot be translated into a specific Q3 comparable sales growth expectation, as the Q3-specific comparable sales assumption is not disclosed within the provided FY2027 guidance extracts [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (11)
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- 11Earnings Release (FY26 Q3)stock.walmart.com
9. What alternative data sources, such as foot traffic or credit card transactions, are available to track Walmart's sales trends during Q3 2026?
| Walmart Q1 FY2027 Revenue Growth | 5.07% [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Online Sales Tracking | Similarweb for Walmart.com traffic [1][2][3][4][5] |
| In-Store Traffic Tracking | Placer.ai for store foot traffic [1][2][3][4][5] |
Alternative data sources offer key insights into Walmart's Q3 2026 sales trends. To track sales performance, practical alternative data sources include digital traffic and ecommerce intelligence, store foot traffic, and transaction-style consumer datasets [1][2][3][4][5]. Key providers for this period include Similarweb, which offers Walmart.com web and app traffic data, shopper intelligence, market share, weekly SKU-level sales signals, and digital shelf analytics to assess online demand and category trends [1][2][3][4][5]. Placer.ai provides store-level visit trends and sales estimates for Walmart supercenters and neighborhood markets, serving as a valuable proxy for in-store traffic and comparable sales [1][2][3][4][5]. Meanwhile, Earnest Analytics supplies transaction-based demand proxies, offering crucial insights into sales momentum [6][1][2][3][4][5].
Transaction data provides more accurate sales proxies than foot traffic for comprehensive analysis. While foot traffic from providers like Placer.ai indicates physical store visitation, transaction-level data, such as that from Earnest Analytics, offers deeper insights into consumer spend, transaction counts, and average order value [6][7]. These transaction metrics are generally considered more accurate proxies for comparable sales growth compared to foot traffic alone [6]. Beyond these primary sources, other alternative data useful for tracking Walmart's sales include mobile app download rates, employee headcount and business sentiment indicators, job posting volume, Google Trends search interest, and social media sentiment [6][8][9].
External factors significantly influence consumer spending and sales forecasting, requiring careful consideration. For instance, the timing of Social Security Income (SSI) payments can impact consumer spending patterns, especially near quarter-ends such as July 31, and may necessitate normalization of transaction data for accurate forecasting [7]. This context is particularly relevant given Walmart's reported revenue growth of 5.07% in Q1 FY2027, which concluded on April 30, 2026, underscoring the importance of these external leading indicators for tracking sales trends in Q3 2026 [1][2][3][4][5].
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10. How do the profit margins for Walmart's US segment compare to those of its primary retail competitors, Amazon and Costco, in the most recent fiscal half-year?
| Walmart U.S. Operating Income Rate (Q1 FY27) | 5.0% (5.1% adjusted) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Costco Operating Margin (Q3 FY26) | Approximately 4.07% [3] |
| Walmart U.S. Operating Income (Q1 FY27) | $5.9 billion [1][2] |
A direct comparison of profit margins for Walmart U.S., Costco, and Amazon for the most recent fiscal half-year is not feasible due to the unavailability of complete half-year data for all three companies [1][2][3]. Furthermore, specific profit margin details for Amazon for the most recent fiscal half-year or any recent quarter were not found within the available research [4][5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Q1 FY27 Earnings Presentationcorporate.walmart.com
- 2May 21, 2026 - EX-99.2 - 8-K: Current report | Walmart Inc. (WMT)stock.walmart.com
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11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Bullish catalysts for Walmart (WMT) include continued growth in high-margin businesses like advertising (Walmart Connect) and membership fees [3][4][5]. Expansion of automated eCommerce fulfillment and sustained attraction of high-income households are also identified as potential drivers [3][4][5].
Bearish risks for WMT include intense competition from digitally native rivals such as Amazon, Shein, and Temu [6][5][7]. Pressure on free cash flow due to high capital expenditure for automation, potential regulatory or legal impacts on margins (e.g., Health & Wellness legislation), and concerns over premium stock valuation relative to cash flow are also noted [6][5][7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 19, 2027
- Closes: March 19, 2027
Sources (7)
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- 2Calendar Walmart Inc.uk.marketscreener.com
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- 4Prediction: Walmart Will Rejoin the $1 Trillion Club by 2027. Here's Why It's a Great Buy Now. | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 5Walmart's Defensive Appeal and 89% Analyst Support Point to 17% Upside - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 6After Earnings, Is Walmart Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued? | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 7Is Walmart Stock a Buy in 2026? The Income Statement Points to a Compounding Margin Floor | TIKR.comtikr.com
