Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds for McDonald's global comparable sales growth in Q3 2026 to be Above 1.5% (model 38.5% vs. market 0.0%). This contrasts with Wall Street analyst forecasts for -0.9% growth and management's expectation of deceleration amid a challenging consumer environment.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement on July 29, 2026. The probability began at 1.0% and spiked 69.0 percentage points to a current price of 70.0%. This occurred despite the fact that McDonald's Q3 2026, which ends September 30, 2026, was still in progress and no official sales data was available. The provided context indicates no fundamental news or event on that date to support such a drastic repricing.
The most critical factor in this market is the complete absence of trading activity. With a total volume of zero contracts traded across all seven data points, the price movements do not reflect market consensus or conviction. The price of 70.0% is not a result of buying and selling pressure. Instead, it likely reflects an initial pricing mechanism or the movement of an offer in an empty order book.
Given the zero-volume environment, standard technical analysis concepts like support and resistance levels are not applicable. The chart's price does not represent genuine market sentiment. It is an artifact of an illiquid market structure, not an indication of traders' collective expectation for McDonald's Q3 2026 comparable sales growth.
  • Growth above 1.5%, 2%, and 2.5% each carry 38% model probability.
  • Wall Street analysts, however, forecast a -0.9% comparable sales decline.
  • This decline reflects a challenging consumer environment and persistent consumer pressures.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 2.5% 36.0% 38.3% Model higher by 2.3pp
Above 2% 38.0% 38.4% Model higher by 0.4pp
Above 1.5% 79.0% 38.5% Market higher by 40.5pp
Above 3.5% 23.0% 28.0% Model higher by 5.0pp
Above 4.5% 9.0% 27.0% Model higher by 18.0pp

Current Context

McDonald's Q3 2026 comparable sales growth data is not yet available. As of July 29, 2026, McDonald's Corporation has not reported its Q3 2026 global comparable sales growth because the quarter, which ends on September 30, 2026, is still ongoing [1][2][3]. The company is expected to release its Q3 2026 financial results around early November 2026, consistent with its historical reporting schedule for the third quarter [1][2][3].
The most recent reported comparable sales increase was 3.8% in Q1 2026. For its first quarter of 2026, which concluded on March 31, 2026, McDonald's reported a global comparable sales increase of 3.8% [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1McDonald's (MCD) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  2. 2McDonald’s (MCD) Earnings Date & Report - Investing.cominvesting.com
  3. 3https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/mcd/earnings?amp%3Butm_medium=referraltipranks.com
  4. 4McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
  5. 5McDonald's (MCD) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary...quartr.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 July 29, 2026: 69.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 70.0%

Outcome: Above 1.5%

What happened: The provided research does not support the occurrence of a 69.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for McDonald's Q3 2026 global comparable sales growth on July 29, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. As of that date, McDonald's Q3 2026 results had not been released; the company was scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026 [10][11][12][1][3]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors in the provided sources indicate a catalyst for such a movement [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Given the lack of evidence for the price movement itself, a primary driver cannot be identified, rendering social media activity irrelevant to this unverified event.
Sources (12)
  1. 1McDonald's Stock Rises 2% as Investors Position Ahead of August 4 Earnings Amid Broader Blue-Chip Rallyibtimes.com.au
  2. 2McDonald's stock consolidation risk rises as volatility climbs and upside momentum peaks: weekly analysistradersunion.com
  3. 3McDonald’s Stock at $264 Faces August 4 Earnings Test as Defensive Rotation Builds | XInvest Newsxinvestnews.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  6. 6www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  7. 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  8. 8www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  9. 9www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  10. 10Financial Information and Annual Reportscorporate.mcdonalds.com
  11. 11McDonald's Investor Information and Resourcescorporate.mcdonalds.com
  12. 12McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2025 earningscnbc.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if McDonald's Corporation's global comparable sales growth for the quarter is strictly above the percentage specified in the market (e.g., above 1.5%), and to "NO" if the growth is at or below that percentage. Trading for this market begins on November 4, 7:00 AM EST. The provided content does not specify further resolution dates or special settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1.5% $0.99 $0.17 79%
Above 2% $0.54 $0.98 38%
Above 2.5% $0.41 $0.99 36%
Above 3% $0.99 $0.99 32%
Above 3.5% $0.99 $0.81 23%
Above 4% $0.99 $0.89 10%
Above 4.5% $0.11 $0.98 9%
Above 5% $0.23 $0.93 8%

Market Discussion

McDonald's Corporation has not yet announced its Q3 2026 global comparable sales growth, with results typically released in late October or early November [1][2][3]. As of July 29, 2026, ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings release on August 4, 2026, market discussion is currently focused on concerns over decelerating comparable sales and a challenging consumer spending environment [4][5]. Industry analysts project full-year 2026 global comparable sales growth to be in the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, following a 3.80% increase in Q1 2026 [6][3].

Sources (6)
  1. 1McDonald's (MCD) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  2. 2Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | MCDmarketscreener.com
  3. 3247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4McDonald's Stock Rises 2% as Investors Position Ahead of August 4 Earnings Amid Broader Blue-Chip Rallyibtimes.com.au
  5. 5Should You Buy This Donald Trump Dividend Stock Before Earnings? - Insider Monkeyinsidermonkey.com
  6. 6MCD Earnings Estimate (2026): Full-Year Forecasteathealthy365.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 62 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score66Caution
Trade quality20% of score46High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score62Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 1.5%” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXMCD-26NOVCOMP-2.0 carried 38% of its $282 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 20d old)

Screened clean
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
57Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

6 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1.5%51
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 2%58
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 2.5%69
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 150% vs realized 3%
Above 3.5%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 4%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 4.5%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
38Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

6 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 2%38
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Above 1.5%—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Above 2.5%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above 3.5%—
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Above 4%—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Above 4.5%—
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
46High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 58 (notional-weighted across 3 scored legs)

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1.5%51Market scoreLiquidity51Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 51
Liquidity
51 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2%58Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality38Rule clarity100
Why 58
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
38 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2.5%69Market scoreLiquidity69Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 69
Liquidity
69 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 150% vs realized 3%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 18, 2026

6. What is the Wall Street analyst consensus for McDonald's Q3 2026 global comparable sales growth, and how has it evolved since the Q2 report?

Q3 2026 Global Comparable Sales Growth-0.9% year-over-year [1]
Q3 2026 U.S. Comparable Sales Growth-0.3% [1]
Q3 2025 Global Comparable Sales Growth8.8% [1]
Analysts anticipate negative global comparable sales growth for Q3 2026. Wall Street consensus forecasts indicate a 0.9% year-over-year decline in McDonald's global comparable sales for the third quarter of 2026 [1]. This projection includes specific regional downturns: a 0.3% decrease for U.S. comparable sales, a 1.0% decline in International Operated Markets, and a 1.3% reduction for International Developmental Licensed Markets [1].
The current forecasts represent a significant shift from previous periods. These analyst expectations for Q3 2026, updated as of late July 2026, mark a considerable deceleration compared to the 3.8% global comparable sales growth achieved in Q1 2026 [1]. Furthermore, they reflect a sharp downturn from the 8.8% global comparable sales growth reported in the prior-year period, Q3 2025 [1]. Following Q1 results, McDonald's management had indicated that Q2 comparable sales would slow down due to challenging comparisons with the previous year, a trend that analysts predict will either continue or intensify into Q3 [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Gear Up for McDonald's (MCD) Q3 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  2. 2McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings: Key Metrics to Watch | Fazen Marketsfazen.markets
  3. 3McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: MCD Revenue Preview | Hudson Labshudson-labs.com
  4. 4https://finance.biggo.com/quote/MCD/earnings-call?t=US_MCD_2026-05-07finance.biggo.com

7. Which specific menu promotions or digital initiatives launched in Q3 2026 are expected to be the primary drivers of McDonald's comparable sales growth?

Q3 2026 Drivers Disclosure StatusNot officially disclosed as of July 29, 2026 [1][2]
Q3 2026 Earnings Release ExpectedNovember 2026 [1][2]
McDonald's 2026 Strategy Focus'Accelerating the Arches' with '4Ds' (Digital, Delivery, Drive-Thru, Development) [2]
Specific Q3 2026 growth drivers remain undisclosed by McDonald's. As of July 29, 2026, McDonald's has not officially released information detailing the specific menu promotions or digital initiatives anticipated to be the primary drivers of its comparable sales growth for the third quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Available evidence consistently indicates that no verified Q3 2026 McDonald's earnings release or commentary on comparable-sales drivers has been made public [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Consequently, there is currently no source-cited list of specific Q3 2026 menu or digital initiatives expected to drive global comparable sales, nor any quantified attribution separating their potential impacts [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Q3 2026 financial results are expected in November 2026. McDonald's Q3 2026 financial results, which would include specific details on comparable sales drivers, are not anticipated to be announced until November 2026 [1][2]. The company's overarching strategy for 2026 continues to be its 'Accelerating the Arches' growth plan [2]. This broader strategic framework emphasizes four key pillars: Digital, Delivery, Drive-Thru, and Development [2]. While these pillars outline general areas of focus for the company, specific Q3 2026 initiatives within these categories and their expected impact have not yet been detailed.
Sources (8)
  1. 1McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
  2. 2https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/McDonald%27s%20Investor%20Overview%20Deck.pdfcorporate.mcdonalds.com
  3. 3247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  5. 5247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  7. 7www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  8. 8www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net

8. How did McDonald's Q2 2026 comparable sales growth compare to key competitors like Starbucks and Yum! Brands?

McDonald's Global Comparable Sales (Q1 2026)3.8% increase [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Starbucks Global Comparable Store Sales (Fiscal Q2 2026)6.2% increase [9][10][11]
Yum! Brands Global Comparable Sales (Q2 2026)Not explicitly stated [12][3][4][5][6][7][8]
McDonald's Q2 2026 comparable sales growth data remains unavailable. As of July 29, 2026, specific global comparable sales growth figures for McDonald's Q2 2026 were not publicly available. The most recent confirmed data for McDonald's is from Q1 2026, which reported a 3.8% increase in global comparable sales [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Competitors Starbucks and Yum! Brands provided varied Q2 2026 insights. Starbucks reported a 6.2% increase in global comparable store sales for its fiscal Q2 2026, concluding on March 29, 2026 [9][10][11]. For Yum! Brands, while Q2 2026 performance indicated relative resilience in store visit trends, specific global comparable sales percentage figures were not explicitly stated in the reviewed reports [12][3][4][5][6][7][8].
A direct Q2 2026 comparable sales comparison cannot be made. Given the unavailability of McDonald's Q2 2026 comparable sales data and the absence of explicit percentage figures for Yum! Brands' Q2 2026, a direct comparison of McDonald's Q2 2026 comparable sales growth with Starbucks and Yum! Brands is not possible based on the current available information [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (12)
  1. 1McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
  2. 2Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
  3. 3247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  5. 5247wallst.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  7. 7www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  8. 8www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  9. 9Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
  10. 10Starbucks Reports Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsstreetinsider.com
  11. 11Starbucks Reports Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultssec.gov
  12. 12Yum! Brands Stayed Ahead as Its Growth Engine Cooled in Q2 2026 – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai

9. Where can historical quarterly reports and earnings call transcripts for McDonald's be found to analyze past performance trends?

Historical Reports LocationMcDonald's Investor Relations website (Financial Information, Events & Presentations sections) [1][2][3]
Earnings Call Transcripts SourceFinancial news platforms (Yahoo Finance, Morningstar) or official investor relations portal [4][5]
Q3 2026 Global Comparable Sales Growth Prediction MarketNo specific prediction market event as of July 29, 2026 [6][7]
McDonald's historical financial performance data is easily found online. The company's official Investor Relations website provides historical quarterly reports, earnings releases, and financial presentations. These documents are organized under the 'Financial Information' and 'Events & Presentations' sections, offering comprehensive insights into McDonald's past operational results [1][2][3].
Earnings call transcripts are also publicly accessible from several platforms. These verbatim records of earnings calls can be found on financial news sites like Yahoo Finance and Morningstar. Additionally, McDonald's official investor relations portal also serves as a direct source for these transcripts [4][5].
Regarding future financial outlooks, specific prediction markets exist for McDonald's. As of July 29, 2026, prediction markets are available for McDonald's Q2 2026 comparable sales growth. However, there is no listed prediction market event for the company's global comparable sales growth in the third quarter of 2026 [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Financial Information and Annual Reportscorporate.mcdonalds.com
  2. 2Events & Presentationscorporate.mcdonalds.com
  3. 3McDonald's Investor Information and Resourcescorporate.mcdonalds.com
  4. 4McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5MCD - McDonald's Corp Earnings Call Transcriptsmorningstar.com
  6. 6McDonald's global comparable sales growth in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  7. 7McDonald's (MCD) global comparable sales growth in Q2 betting 28.07.2026 - at MelBetmelbet.com

10. What do alternative data sources, such as foot traffic and credit card transactions, indicate about McDonald's sales momentum through Q3 2026?

Q2 2026 Traffic Decline4.5% year-over-year [1]
YTD Stock PerformanceDown 13.1% (as of July 23, 2026) [2]
Sales MomentumNegative leading into and at start of Q3 2026 [1]
McDonald's faces negative sales momentum due to persistent consumer pressures. Alternative data sources reveal a decline in sales momentum for McDonald's leading into and at the start of Q3 2026. Visitation analytics for Q2 2026 showed a 4.5% year-over-year decrease in traffic, a trend primarily attributed to the company's significant exposure to lower-income consumers grappling with macroeconomic challenges [1]. As of late July 2026, despite a decrease in gas prices, McDonald's did not observe an increase in restaurant traffic. Consumers continue to struggle with falling real wages and depleted savings, resulting in heightened price sensitivity. These factors indicate that the challenges affecting sales momentum, especially consumer traffic, remain significant [3].
Broader alternative data confirms sustained pressure on McDonald's. McDonald's stock has also experienced downward pressure throughout 2026, trading down 13.1% year-to-date as of July 23, 2026. Other alternative data indicators, including consumer sentiment, hiring activity, and job postings, were mixed to soft during this period, further reflecting the company's ongoing difficulties [2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Why Chipotle and McDonald's Took Different Paths in Q2 2026 – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  2. 2McDonald's (MCD) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
  3. 3McDonald's (MCD) Faces Stubborn Price Sensitive Traffic Despite Lower Gas Pricesfinance.yahoo.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026 [1][2][3]. As of July 29, 2026, Q3 2026 global comparable sales growth has not been published [1][2][3][4][5]. The next meaningful catalyst will be the upcoming quarterly earnings release once Q3 2026 is reported [4][5]. Management expects comparable sales to decelerate in 2026 due to a challenging consumer environment, particularly for low-income cohorts pressured by inflation and rising gas prices [6][7].
Key catalysts for 2026 performance include the rollout of a new beverage platform, continued unit expansion targeting approximately 2,600 new locations, and currency translation tailwinds [8][7].
These positive factors are balanced against supply chain volatility from geopolitical tensions and ongoing cost inflation [8][7][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 04, 2027
  • Closes: March 04, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1McDonald's (MCD) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  2. 2McDonald’s (MCD) Earnings Date & Report - Investing.cominvesting.com
  3. 3https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/mcd/earnings?amp%3Butm_medium=referraltipranks.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
  6. 6McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  7. 7McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: MCD Revenue Preview | Hudson Labshudson-labs.com
  8. 8McDonald’s Q1 2026: Strongest Revenue Growth in Eight Quarters | TIKR.comtikr.com
  9. 9McDonald's (MCD) Q4 2025 earningscnbc.com