Short Answer

Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q3 is not expected to exceed 2%. Management's downward revision of full-year comparable sales guidance to flat, alongside anticipated flat Q3 sales due to macroeconomic pressures and a 50-basis-point headwind, keeps this outcome priced at 4.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market is pricing a low probability that Lowe's third-quarter comparable sales will miss the company's own guidance to the downside. On August 19, 2026, Lowe's management lowered its full-year comparable sales outlook to "flat" from a prior range of "flat to up 2%." The company also specifically guided for Q3 2026 comparable sales to be flat.
The contract resolves on whether comparable sales growth is less than -2.0%. The market's pricing, which moved from 0% to 4% after the guidance was issued, reflects a small but non-zero chance that results will be significantly worse than the company's flat forecast. The very low trading volume of just 18 contracts suggests this is not a high-conviction market. The price has remained stable, indicating no new information has emerged to alter this low-probability assessment.
  • Q3 comparable sales likely flat; Lowe's management expects this outcome.
  • Wall Street analysts lowered Q3 estimates following full-year guidance revision.
  • Macroeconomic pressures on discretionary DIY spending are consistent with flat sales.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 0% 51.0% 23.2% Market higher by 27.8pp
Above -1.5% 92.0% 23.2% Market higher by 68.8pp
Above 1% 16.0% 10.0% Market higher by 6.0pp
Above -2% 95.0% 10.0% Market higher by 85.0pp
Above -1% 91.0% 23.2% Market higher by 67.8pp

Current Context

Lowe's projects Q3 2026 comparable sales to be flat. On August 19, 2026, Lowe's updated its fiscal year 2026 comparable sales outlook to flat, a reduction from its previous guidance of flat to up 2% growth [1][2][3][4]. Management expects Q3 2026 comparable sales performance to remain consistent with this revised "roughly flat" full-year outlook [2]. Analyst consensus estimates for Lowe's Q3 2026 (ended October 2026) revenue are approximately $22.4 billion, with earnings per share estimates around $2.88 [5].
Recent results show modest comparable sales growth driven by Pro. For the second quarter (Q2) ended July 31, 2026, Lowe's reported comparable sales of +0.2% on August 19, 2026 [6][7]. This marked a fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales [6]. Management attributed this performance to sustained growth in the Pro, online, and home services categories, which offset persistent pressure from discretionary DIY spending [1][3][6].
Q3 2026 comparable sales data is not yet available. As of September 1, 2026, Lowe's has not yet reported its financial results for Q3 2026, which are expected to cover the three-month period ending October 31, 2026 [6][7]. The company's Q3 2026 earnings conference call is scheduled for November 18, 2026 [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1LOWE'S REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 SALES AND EARNINGS RESULTS | Lowe’s Corporatecorporate.lowes.com
  2. 2Lowe's Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call: Online Growth, Flat Comps and Updated Guidancetradingkey.com
  3. 3Lowe's Lowers Full-Year Targets as Homeowners Scale Back DIY Projects -- Update | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Analyst Ratings, Estimates...finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7exhibit992-081926sec.gov
  8. 8Q3 2026 Lowe's Companies, Inc. Earnings Conference...corporate.lowes.com
  9. 9Lowe's Cos. Analyst Estimates & Ratingswsj.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Above 0%" contract on Lowe's comparable sales growth in Q3, a "YES" resolution triggers if the growth is greater than 0%, and a "NO" resolution triggers if growth is 0% or less. Trading for this market ends on November 18, 6:00 AM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 18, 2027; no other special settlement conditions are explicitly stated.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above -2% $1.00 $0.06 95%
Above -1.5% $0.98 $0.08 92%
Above -1% $0.95 $0.15 91%
Above 0% $0.61 $0.49 51%
Above 1% $0.20 $0.90 16%
Above 1.5% $0.14 $0.95 11%
Above 2% $0.08 $0.98 5%
Above 3% $0.03 $1.00 1%
Above -0.5% $0.85 $0.25 0%
Above 0.5% $0.36 $0.74 0%
Above 2.5% $0.07 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

As of September 1, 2026, Lowe's has not yet reported its Q3 2026 financial results [1][2][3]. On August 19, 2026, the company announced an updated full-year 2026 outlook, forecasting comparable sales to be flat, a revision from its earlier projection [1][4]. Following this update, financial commentary and market sentiment anticipate flat comparable sales for the remainder of the year due to a cooling home improvement sector [5][1][4].

Sources (5)
  1. 1LOWE'S REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 SALES AND EARNINGS RESULTS | Lowe’s Corporatecorporate.lowes.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3low-20260819sec.gov
  4. 4Lowe's Lowers Full-Year Targets as Homeowners Scale Back DIY Projects -- Update | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  5. 5Lowe's earnings analysis: questions answered and next...investing.com

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 1, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 62 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score62Caution
Trade quality20% of score62Caution
Trust score62Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity84
Outcome is hard to influenceGood
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality62
Order book is thinCaution
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXLOW 26NOVCOMP” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
62Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 62 across 2 legs

Above -2%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above -1.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above -1%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality70Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 0%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality53Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
53 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

5. Which key macroeconomic indicators between August and October 2026 are most likely to influence Lowe's final Q3 comparable sales growth?

30-year fixed mortgage rate6.66% (August 27, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
July 2026 CPI+2.7% year-over-year [1][2][3][4]
August 2026 Consumer Confidence89.4 [1][2][3][4]
Key macroeconomic indicators critically influence Lowe's comparable sales growth. Lowe's comparable sales growth for Q3 2026, covering August through October, is primarily shaped by key macroeconomic indicators such as mortgage and interest-rate levels, inflation (CPI/PPI), labor-market conditions (unemployment), and consumer sentiment [5][1][2][3][4]. Housing activity metrics, including permits and starts, alongside retail foot-traffic proxies, provide important cross-checks for demand [1][2][3][4]. Lowe's management consistently identifies interest rates, inflation, and consumer confidence as critical factors impacting sales, alongside discretionary DIY demand and housing turnover [6][7][8]. Management anticipates a "flat" Q3 outlook, expecting a "very similar demand environment" to Q2, driven by status quo macro conditions, DIY caution, and ongoing pressures from residential construction [1][2][3][4].
Elevated interest rates and inflation notably impact consumer spending and housing. Elevated interest rates serve as a significant headwind by reducing housing turnover and suppressing new construction demand, which aligns with broader pressures in the remodeling industry [6][1][2][3][4]. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.66% on August 27, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Inflation also directly affects household budgets, impacting DIY demand and customer caution; the July 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a +2.7% year-over-year increase [1][2][3][4]. Consumer confidence, reported at 89.4 in August 2026, a decrease from 90.2 in July, reinforces management's observations of cautious customer behavior and a tendency to prioritize repair and maintenance over larger discretionary spending [1][2][3][4].
Labor market stability supports basic demand amid broader caution. Labor market conditions, with unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026, provide some support for maintenance and repair demand [1][2][3][4]. However, affordability challenges and prevailing interest rates remain significant factors influencing consumer behavior [1][2][3][4]. Additionally, gasoline prices contribute to DIY demand fluctuations and overall customer caution [9][10][11][1][2][3][4]. The cumulative effect of these macroeconomic forces has led Lowe's management to describe the expected Q3 environment as maintaining the current demand conditions, characterized by cautious DIY spending and persistent pressure on residential construction [1][2][3][4].
Sources (11)
  1. 1LOW_Q22027, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2LOW_Q22027, Page: 9Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3LOW_Q22027, Page: 10Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4LOW_Q22027, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5Lowe's fiscal calendar - WorksPerkworksperk.com
  6. 6Home Depot, Lowe’s: remodeling idles as big projects laghousingwire.com
  7. 7Lowe's Reports Second Quarter 2026 Sales and Earnings...corporate.lowes.com
  8. 8Lowe's Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call: Online Growth, Flat...tradingkey.com
  9. 9What HIRI's June 2026 Home Improvement Forecast Means to Manufacturershiri.org
  10. 10How Inflation Is Hiding the Real Story in the Building Products Markethiri.org
  11. 11Home Improvement Industry Shows Moderate Growth to Start 2026hiri.org

6. What is the trend in Wall Street analyst estimates for Lowe's Q3 2026 comparable sales following its last earnings report?

Q3 2026 Comparable Sales Estimate TrendDownward [1][2]
Original Full-Year 2026 Comparable Sales OutlookFlat to up 2% [3][4]
Revised Full-Year 2026 Comparable Sales OutlookFlat [3][4][5]
Wall Street analysts have lowered Lowe's Q3 2026 comparable sales estimates. Following Lowe's Q2 2026 earnings report, released on August 19, 2026, analyst expectations for Lowe's Q3 2026 comparable sales have trended downward [1][2]. Reports indicate adjustments for the third quarter to a flat or approximately 0.5% growth projection [1][2].
Lowe's revised its full-year 2026 comparable sales outlook. The company's Q2 2026 earnings report included an updated full-year comparable sales outlook [3][4]. Lowe's reduced its full-year comparable sales forecast from an initial range of flat to up 2% to a new expectation of flat [3][4][5]. This company revision directly influenced the downward trend in Wall Street analyst estimates for the subsequent Q3 2026 comparable sales [1][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Lowe's Resets FY Outlook as Softer Q2 Trends Prompt...finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Lowe's earnings analysis: questions answered and next...investing.com
  3. 3Lowe's Reports Second Quarter 2026 Sales and Earnings...corporate.lowes.com
  4. 4Lowe's (LOW) Q2 2026 earningscnbc.com
  5. 5Lowe's Trims Full-Year 2026 Outlook to the Bottom of Every Prior Range as Comps Rise 0.2% — Earnings Dispatchearningsdispatch.com

7. How did Lowe's performance in its Pro and DIY segments compare to Home Depot's during the first half of 2026?

Lowe's Q2 2026 Comparable Sales Growth0.2% [1][2][3][4]
Home Depot Q2 2026 Comparable Sales Growth1.7% [1][2][3][4]
Lowe's FY 2026 Comparable Sales OutlookFlat (updated from previous guidance of flat to up 2%) [1][5][6]
Both Lowe's and Home Depot faced challenges in a weak DIY market. During the first half of 2026, both retailers encountered a significant downturn in discretionary DIY spending [1][2][3]. Despite this difficult environment, their Pro segments showed resilience. Lowe's performance was notably supported by its Pro and online sales, which mitigated some of the weakness in DIY spending. Similarly, Home Depot's Pro segment performed more strongly relative to its DIY segment during this period [1][2][3].
Home Depot outperformed Lowe's in comparable sales for Q2 2026. Specifically, Lowe's reported a comparable sales growth of 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, while Home Depot achieved a stronger comparable sales growth of 1.7% for the same period [1][2][3][4]. Reflecting the prevailing market conditions, Lowe's revised its fiscal year 2026 outlook, now forecasting flat comparable sales growth for the year, a reduction from its initial guidance of flat to up 2% [1][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1LOWE'S REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 SALES AND EARNINGS RESULTS | Lowe’s Corporatecorporate.lowes.com
  2. 2PYMNTS | Home Depot and Lowe’s Battle Over the Maintenance Economypymnts.com
  3. 3Home Depot vs. Lowe's Q2 Earnings: What HD and LOW Say About the U.S. Consumerfinviz.com
  4. 4The Home Depot Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results; Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Guidanceprnewswire.com
  5. 5LOWE'S REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 SALES AND EARNINGS RESULTSprnewswire.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov

8. What do alternative data sources, such as credit card transactions and foot traffic, indicate about Lowe's sales trends during Q3 2026?

Q3 2026 Comparable Sales ExpectationRoughly flat to modestly positive [1]
Q2 2026 Foot TrafficClose to last year’s levels, diverging less than one percentage point from Q2 2025 [1]
Management's Q3 2026 Sales GuidanceFlat, with a roughly 50-basis-point headwind [2]
Alternative data suggests Lowe's Q3 2026 comparable sales will be mostly flat to positive. This assessment largely stems from stabilized foot traffic, as specific credit card transaction data for Lowe’s Q3 2026 was not found in the provided evidence [1]. While stable, foot traffic remains susceptible to broader economic shifts [3][2][4].
Foot traffic in Q2 2026 showed stability compared to the previous year. Placer.ai reported Lowe’s Q2 2026 foot traffic was close to last year’s levels, with overall and same-store visits diverging by less than one percentage point from Q2 2025 [1]. This stability in the comparable traffic base is consistent with flat-to-modest comparable sales heading into summer [1]. Furthermore, Similarweb observed Lowe’s May 2026 online traffic reached a seasonal peak, indicating strong digital demand leading into summer, though this does not directly measure same-store sales [1].
Q3 sales trend conclusion relies heavily on foot traffic due to data limitations. The absence of specific credit card transaction data for Lowe's Q3 2026 from the provided evidence necessitates this focus [1]. Confirming this outlook, Lowe's management explicitly guided that Q3 2026 comparable sales are expected to be "flat," also foreseeing a roughly 50-basis-point headwind due to difficult year-over-year comparisons from a prior-year storm [2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  2. 2Lowe's Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call: Online Growth, Flat Comps and Updated Guidancetradingkey.com
  3. 3Steady Hands: Home Improvement Traffic Holds in Q2 2026 – Placer.ai Blogplacer.ai
  4. 4Advan Websiteadvanresearch.com

9. Based on the Q2 2026 earnings call, what specific outlook did Lowe's management provide for its key DIY and Pro customer segments in Q3?

Q3 2026 Comparable Sales OutlookFlat (similar to Q2 performance) [1]
Q2 2026 Comparable Sales Increase0.20% [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
FY 2026 Full-Year Comparable Sales GuidanceFlat versus prior year [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Lowe's anticipates overall flat comparable sales for Q3 2026. Management did not provide a specific Q3 2026 comparable sales growth outlook for its DIY and Pro customer segments individually, as the available information from the Q2 2026 earnings call does not include such verbatim remarks [3][4][5][6][7][8]. However, Lowe's CFO Brandon Sink stated an overall outlook for Q3 2026 comparable sales, anticipating them to be flat, which would align with the performance observed in Q2 [1]. Management noted that discretionary DIY demand continues to be pressured by macro headwinds, including interest rates, inflation, and consumer caution [2][9][1]. In contrast, the company continues to see solid performance from its Pro customers, especially small and medium-sized Pros, and plans to keep investing in its Total Home strategy to support these segments [2][9][1].
Q2 performance was driven by Pro sales offsetting DIY pressures. For context, Q2 2026 comparable sales increased by 0.20%, driven by strong Pro and home services sales, which partially offset persistent DIY macro pressures [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. The full-year FY 2026 comparable sales guidance for the company overall is expected to be flat versus the prior year [2][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Q2 2026 Lowe's Companies Inc Earnings Call on August...corporate.lowes.com
  3. 3www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  6. 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  7. 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  8. 8www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  9. 9Lowe's Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call: Online Growth, Flat Comps and Updated Guidancetradingkey.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Lowe's has scheduled its Q3 2026 earnings conference call for November 18, 2026 [1]. The company recently updated its full-year 2026 outlook, now expecting comparable sales to be flat compared to the prior year, a revision from its previous guidance of flat to up 2% [2][3]. This follows the release of its Q2 2026 financial results on August 19, 2026 [4][5]. Lowe's also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on November 4, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 21, 2026 [6].
Key bullish catalysts for Lowe's include sustained growth across its Pro, Online, and Home Services segments [7][8][9][10][11]. Further upside could stem from potential interest rate relief, which may stimulate housing turnover [7]. The impact of new housing-policy funding also presents a potential positive driver [7].
Conversely, bearish catalysts involve persistent macroeconomic pressures impacting discretionary DIY spending [3][6][9]. Subdued residential construction and the potential for further margin compression if high interest rates persist pose additional risks [9]. Broader challenges include general macroeconomic uncertainty, housing market difficulties, inflationary pressures, and reduced consumer discretionary spending [10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 18, 2027
  • Closes: March 18, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Q3 2026 Lowe's Companies, Inc. Earnings Conference...corporate.lowes.com
  2. 2Lowe's Reports Second Quarter 2026 Sales and Earnings...corporate.lowes.com
  3. 3Lowe's Trims Full-Year 2026 Outlook to the Bottom of Every Prior Range as Comps Rise 0.2% — Earnings Dispatchearningsdispatch.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5low-20260819sec.gov
  6. 6How Investors May Respond To Lowe's (LOW) Dividend Hike, Share Offering and Lower 2026 Guidance - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  7. 7exhibit992-081926sec.gov
  8. 8Lowe’s Earnings Preview: Can Pro Growth and Digital Momentum Offset Weak DIY Demand? | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  9. 9Lowe’s (LOW) Cut Its Outlook. Is Pro Demand Strong Enough to Offset the DIY Slump? - Insider Monkeyinsidermonkey.com
  10. 10low-20260130sec.gov
  11. 11Documentsec.gov

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXLOW-26AUGCOMP-N1.0: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXLOW-26AUGCOMP-N0.5: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXLOW-26AUGCOMP-4.0: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXLOW-26AUGCOMP-3.5: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
  • KXLOW-26AUGCOMP-3.0: NO (Aug 19, 2026)