Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027 to be Above 3.4%. This aligns with Q1 FY27 comparable sales growth of 4.1% and management's consolidated net sales guidance trending towards the upper end of 3.5%-4.5% for the full year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Walmart's Q1 FY27 U.S. comparable sales grew 4.1%, supporting growth above 3.4%.
- Sales above 3.8% and 4% are supported by guidance toward upper 3.5%-4.5%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | Management guidance suggests continued sales momentum could make higher growth rates less improbable. |
| Above 3.4% | 97.0% | 96.4% | Walmart announced Q1 FY27 US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1%. |
| Above 4% | 70.0% | 65.9% | Walmart announced Q1 FY27 US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1%. |
| Above 3.6% | 96.0% | 95.2% | Walmart announced Q1 FY27 US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1%. |
| Above 4.4% | 33.0% | 40.2% | Full-year consolidated net sales growth is projected towards the upper end of 3.5%-4.5%. |
Current Context
Walmart reported solid Q1 FY27 comparable sales and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Walmart U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel, grew 4.1% for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 [^][^][^]. As of May 21, 2026, Walmart reiterated its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance for consolidated net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% (in constant currency) and adjusted operating income growth of 6.0% to 8.0% [^][^][^][^].
Strong eCommerce and market share gains drove Q1, despite recent stock volatility. The Q1 FY27 performance was characterized by strong global eCommerce growth of 26% [^][^]. Walmart also gained market share across various categories and income tiers, and a positive shift in merchandise category mix contributed to Walmart U.S. gross margins [^][^]. However, Walmart stock experienced significant volatility as of late July 2026, including a 19% drawdown observed on July 23, 2026, amid market pricing concerns despite strong underlying business performance [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is defined by an aggressive, two-day repricing event. The contract began trading at a 1.0% probability on July 29, 2026, before jumping to 87.0% that same day. It advanced again on July 30 to 97.0%, where it has since stabilized. The chart shows a nearly vertical move from the floor to the ceiling of its potential range, with no meaningful support or resistance levels established in between. The current price reflects a near-certain market expectation for the "YES" outcome.
The drivers for these sharp price increases are not apparent from the available information. The provided research context does not contain evidence to substantiate the 86.0 percentage point spike on July 29. Similarly, no specific news or event on July 30 was found to explain the subsequent 10.0 percentage point increase. Trading volume is a key consideration. Total volume is low at 371 contracts, and the sample data indicates these significant price moves occurred on zero reported volume. This suggests the repricing was not the result of broad market activity but could reflect an initial pricing adjustment or trades in a highly illiquid environment.
Market sentiment, as indicated by the 97.0% price, is overwhelmingly confident that Walmart's fiscal 2027 US comparable sales growth will exceed the contract's specified threshold. This aligns with Walmart's own reiterated full-year guidance for consolidated net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5%. However, the low trading volume indicates this consensus has not been tested by significant capital flows. The price reflects high conviction among a small set of participants rather than a deeply traded, liquid market view.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 4.8%
📉 July 30, 2026: 32.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 8.0%
What happened: On July 30, 2026, there was no verifiable social media activity or traditional news announced that could explain a 32.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027 exceeding 4.8% [^]. Walmart's Q1 FY27 comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) was 4.1% [^], and management's commentary in the Q1 2027 call highlighted "stronger U.S. traffic" and "improving transaction growth" [^][^][^][^][^]. Notably, Walmart does not appear to disclose specific FY2027 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel guidance [^][^][^][^][^]. Given the available data, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, and no clear primary driver for this significant price movement is identifiable.
Outcome: Above 3.6%
📈 July 29, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%
What happened: The provided research does not contain evidence to substantiate a 90.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027 on July 29, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While Walmart's stock did rise by 2.1% that day following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold benchmark interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, this was a stock movement and not the specific prediction market spike described [^][^]. No social media activity, breaking news, or official announcements directly linking to a 90.0 pp market movement on that date were found in the provided sources [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant because the significant price movement described is unsubstantiated.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Walmart Inc. reports above 3.4% US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for fiscal 2027, based on their full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release, as verified by Fiscal.ai; otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The market opened on July 29, 2026, and will close either when the outcome occurs (potentially early) or by May 19, 2027, at 1:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is strictly prohibited for individuals with material non-public information or those employed by Source Agencies.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | $0.97 | $0.04 | 97% |
| Above 3.6% | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Above 4% | $0.81 | $0.22 | 70% |
| Above 3.8% | $0.93 | $0.08 | 69% |
| Above 4.6% | $0.20 | $0.81 | 43% |
| Above 4.2% | $0.55 | $0.46 | 38% |
| Above 4.4% | $0.33 | $0.68 | 33% |
| Above 4.8% | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Above 5% | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Walmart announced a 4.1% increase in Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended May 1, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Despite this strong performance, Walmart maintained a consolidated constant currency net sales growth guidance of 3.5% to 4.5% for the full fiscal year 2027, prompting investor disappointment and a stock price decline on May 21, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. How did Walmart's Q1 FY27 U.S. comparable sales growth compare to that of its chief rivals, Target and Costco?
| Walmart Q1 FY27 US Comps (ex-fuel) | 4.1% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Target Q1 FY27 US Comps (ex-fuel) | Not available [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Costco Q1 FY27 US Comps (ex-fuel) | Not available [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Walmart reported its Q1 FY27 comparable sales, but direct comparisons are difficult. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, reached 4.1% [^][^]. However, a precise numerical comparison of this figure with the U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Target and Costco during their respective Q1 FY27 periods is currently not feasible, as these specific figures are not available [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Data from rivals, though available, pertains to different fiscal periods. While Target reported a comparable sales growth of 5.6% for its Q1 FY2026 [^][^][^], and Costco's U.S. comparable sales growth for its fiscal 2026 third quarter was 6.8% [^][^][^], these data points do not align with Walmart's Q1 FY27. Consequently, a direct, quarter-over-quarter comparison of U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) across all three major retailers for the Q1 FY27 period cannot be made with the provided information [^][^][^][^][^][^].
6. Based on Walmart's Q1 FY27 earnings report, what specific initiatives in eCommerce and advertising are expected to drive growth in the remainder of the fiscal year?
| Consolidated Net Sales Growth Guidance | 3.5% to 4.5% range (trending toward upper end) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Global eCommerce Growth | 26% (Q1 FY27) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Walmart Connect Growth (ex-VIZIO) | 44% (Q1) [^][^] |
Walmart anticipates growth in FY27 from eCommerce and advertising strategies. The company projects its full-year fiscal 2027 consolidated net sales growth to trend towards the upper end of 3.5% to 4.5% [^][^]. Key efforts in eCommerce include enhancing faster delivery options and expanding its marketplace [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Concurrently, advertising growth is supported by improved ad-buying tools, which now incorporate AI features, and an expanded reach [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
eCommerce growth is primarily driven by enhanced delivery and marketplace expansion. Store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services are significant contributors to eCommerce growth [^]. The U.S. 3P Marketplace recorded its highest sales growth in two and a half years during Q1 FY27 [^]. Globally, enterprise eCommerce experienced a 26% increase, a result of faster delivery and an improved customer experience [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Marketplace expansion, offering a wider assortment and stronger fulfillment capabilities, is also a key factor, with marketplace sellers boosting their ad spend by over 50% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The extensive omnichannel fulfillment network, which integrates stores, clubs, fulfillment centers, and last-mile operations, is vital for supporting speed and efficiency across both eCommerce and advertising sectors [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Advertising growth is fueled by improved tools and VIZIO integration. Walmart Connect, the company's advertising business, was a notable growth driver in Q1, achieving a 44% increase excluding VIZIO [^][^]. To further scale this business, Walmart is enhancing its toolkit for ad buyers with AI features designed to dynamically optimize campaign content and performance [^][^]. Expanding reach through the VIZIO connected platform is also a highlighted initiative [^][^]. Advertising, alongside membership, represents a crucial component of higher-margin commerce solutions, collectively contributing approximately one-third of the operating income, thereby making these segments essential for growth in the latter half of the year [^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. Which macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data, could significantly impact consumer spending at Walmart through fiscal 2027?
| CPI-Walmart Revenue Correlation | +0.59 [^] |
|---|---|
| Nominal PCE Increase (May 2026) | 0.7% [^] |
| Real PCE Increase (May 2026) | 0.3% [^] |
Inflation and retail sales significantly influence Walmart's consumer spending dynamics. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key macroeconomic indicator, drives market share growth for Walmart by directing budget-conscious consumers to value channels during periods of higher prices, a trend indicative of a K-shaped economy [^][^][^][^][^]. A positive correlation (β=+0.59) between CPI levels and Walmart's revenue growth highlights its defensive posture during inflationary periods [^]. However, the prevailing K-shaped recovery, characterized by high-income households disproportionately fueling retail spending, presents potential risks for retailers like Walmart that serve a broad consumer base [^][^].
Broader economic factors, including energy and income, also impact Walmart's sales. Beyond CPI and retail sales, Walmart's U.S. comparable sales are also significantly influenced by energy costs, affecting both consumer purchasing power and operational expenses [^][^][^][^]. Walmart's management has factored energy price stabilization into its fiscal 2027 outlook, but sustained high fuel prices could necessitate price increases on goods, potentially impacting future sales performance [^][^][^]. Other crucial macroeconomic indicators include personal income, disposable personal income (DPI), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE); nominal PCE increased 0.7% and real PCE 0.3% monthly as of May 2026 [^][^]. Furthermore, tariff uncertainty and evolving inflation expectations also represent significant macroeconomic headwinds that could influence consumer spending plans [^].
8. What do alternative data sources, such as foot traffic analytics and consumer transaction data, show about Walmart's sales trends for Q2 and Q3 of fiscal 2027?
| Q1 FY2027 US Comparable Sales Growth | 4.10% (transactions up 3.00%, average ticket up 1.10%) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY2027 Prediction Market Range | 3.0% to 5.5% (ex-fuel) [^][^][^] |
| Q3 FY2027 Prediction Market Benchmark | 3.4% (initial, ex-fuel) [^] |
Direct alternative data for Walmart's sales in Q2/Q3 FY27 is unavailable. Specific alternative-data readings for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth excluding fuel in fiscal Q2 or Q3 2027, such as public foot-traffic series or consumer-transaction datasets, are not available in the retrieved sources [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While Walmart's internal proxy metrics and third-party commentary indicate ongoing strength in traffic and transactions, only Q1 FY2027 data is specifically quantified [^][^][^][^][^][^]. For both Q2 and Q3 FY2027, definitive alternative-data readouts or released results were not found, with only company guidance being available for Q2 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Walmart's Q1 FY2027 earnings provide the most robust sales data. The most robust quantified signal available from the provided sources is Walmart’s Q1 FY2027 earnings release [^][^][^][^][^][^]. During this period, Walmart U.S. comparable sales increased by 4.10%, driven by a 3.00% rise in transactions and a 1.10% increase in average ticket [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This transaction data serves as Walmart’s primary internal proxy for foot-traffic, as the company does not publicly release a standalone foot-traffic metric [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets offer forward-looking indications for Q2 and Q3 FY27. Despite the absence of direct alternative data for FY2027 Q2 and Q3, prediction markets provide some forward-looking indications [^][^][^][^]. For Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel), prediction platforms like Kalshi have tracked thresholds ranging from 3.0% to 5.5% [^][^][^]. Additionally, tracking for Q3 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) has commenced with initial benchmarks set around 3.4% [^]. Older commentary from Placer.ai showing visit growth in earlier periods (Q1 FY2026, May-July 2025) is directionally supportive but not specific to FY2027 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Walmart's full-year fiscal 2027 comparable sales growth, and how does it align with company guidance?
| Wall Street Consensus for FY27 U.S. Comparable Sales Ex-Fuel | Not specified [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Walmart FY27 U.S. Comparable Sales Ex-Fuel Guidance | Not disclosed [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Walmart FY27 Constant Currency Net Sales Growth Guidance | 3.5% to 4.5% [^][^][^][^] |
Wall Street consensus for Walmart's FY27 comparable sales is unavailable. There is no publicly available Wall Street consensus estimate for Walmart's full-year fiscal 2027 U.S. comparable sales growth excluding fuel [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, Walmart has not provided specific public guidance for this particular metric. The company's official full-year fiscal 2027 guidance focuses on constant currency net sales growth, projected at 3.5% to 4.5%, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), estimated between $2.75 and $2.85 [^][^][^][^]. Consequently, without specific key performance indicator (KPI)-level consensus or guidance for U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel, it is not possible to quantify alignment with company expectations [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Analysts view Walmart's overall fiscal 2027 guidance as conservative. Despite the lack of specific U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel guidance, Wall Street analysts generally perceive Walmart's broader fiscal 2027 guidance as cautious [^][^]. Some analysts foresee a stronger performance than the company's net sales growth forecast, attributing this to the ongoing resilience of core consumer spending. However, there is also concern regarding the potential impact of elevated fuel prices on lower-income consumer segments [^][^]. Separately, prediction markets feature specific contracts related to Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel), with current activity reflecting varied expectations for both quarterly and annual performance outcomes [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Walmart's Q1 FY2027 saw U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) grow by 4.1% [^][^][^]. The company's annual guidance projects net sales growth on a constant currency basis at 3.5%–4.5% for fiscal 2027, with management indicating full-year sales growth is expected to trend toward the upper end of this initial range [^][^]. Bullish catalysts include strong global eCommerce growth of 26% in Q1 FY2027, expansion in advertising, marketplace, and membership services, and continued investment in automation to drive efficiency [^][^]. The U.S. comp sales ex-fuel trend, at 4.10% in Q1 FY2027 following 4.60% in Q4 FY2026, suggests continued underlying traffic and basket strength, with Walmart attracting more higher-income customers through low prices, faster delivery, and broader assortment [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Bearish factors and risks include inflationary pressures on the consumer, potential headwinds from maximum fair pricing legislation and pharmacy regulations, and higher-than-planned fuel or distribution costs that can negatively impact operating income [^] [^] [^] . There is no explicit FY2027 company target for Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth ex-fuel in the available evidence, limiting investor guidance anchoring [^][^][^][^][^]. Valuation concerns and competitive pressure from Amazon could also limit upside if growth slows [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 19, 2027
- Closes: May 19, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Walmart's Q1 FY2027 saw U.S.
- Trigger: Comparable sales (excluding fuel) grow by 4.1% [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company's annual guidance projects net sales growth on a constant currency basis at 3.5%–4.5% for fiscal 2027, with management indicating full-year sales growth is expected to trend toward the upper end of this initial range [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include strong global eCommerce growth of 26% in Q1 FY2027, expansion in advertising, marketplace, and membership services, and continued investment in automation to drive efficiency [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
