Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027 to be Above 3.4% (57.6% model vs 73.0% market), driven by an estimated 125 basis point headwind to U.S. comparable sales that suggests a likely range of 2.75%-3.75%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This contract saw its probability decline from a high of 99.0% to a current price of 73.0%. The market experienced extreme volatility between August 18 and August 20, 2026. The price dropped 33 percentage points to 62.0% on August 18 in anticipation of Walmart's earnings report. It then spiked sharply to 99.0% on August 19 before collapsing 26 points to 73.0% on August 20. The primary driver for this activity was Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings release.
The sharp drop on August 20 was a direct reaction to Walmart's official announcement of 2.6% U.S. comparable sales growth for the quarter. This figure was below the 3.4% threshold required for the market to resolve to YES based on that quarter's data alone. The volatility in the two days prior suggests significant speculative trading based on rumors or pre-release information about the earnings figures. High trading volume leading up to the announcement, with 1,570 total contracts traded, indicates strong market conviction and participation around this key data release. Recent volume is zero, showing the market has fully priced in the Q2 results.
The initial 99.0% price indicated near-certainty that full-year comparable sales growth would exceed the 3.4% mark. Following the weaker-than-expected Q2 print, market sentiment has been revised downward. However, the current price of 73.0% suggests participants still see a high probability that performance in the remaining two quarters of fiscal 2027 will be strong enough to pull the full-year average above the threshold. The 99.0% level acted as an early ceiling, while the post-announcement price of 73.0% has established a new trading level as the market awaits fresh catalysts.
- Since last update (~4h): The model's "Above 3.6%" probability dropped 44.5pp, flipping its edge (model_led).
- Headline model probability fell 38.8pp; market dropped 24.0pp, widening the edge 14.8pp.
- Other 'Above' outcomes showed substantial model drops, flipping or compressing edges (model_led).
- Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth is expected in the 2.75% to 3.75% range.
- Thresholds above 3.6% face headwinds from an estimated 125 basis points.
- Achieving above 4.0% is highly unlikely given the projected sales range.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.8% | 52.0% | 36.5% | Market higher by 15.5pp |
| Above 3.4% | 75.0% | 57.6% | Market higher by 17.4pp |
| Above 4% | 1.0% | 34.7% | Model higher by 33.7pp |
| Above 3.6% | 67.0% | 50.7% | Market higher by 16.3pp |
| Above 4.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | Market higher by 2.0pp |
Current Context
Walmart US comparable sales grew 2.6% in Q2 FY27 despite headwinds. Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) was 2.6% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, which ended July 31, 2026 [^][^][^]. This followed 4.1% comparable sales growth in Q1 FY27 [^][^]. Q2 FY27 comparable sales were driven by a 1.5% increase in customer transactions and a 1.1% increase in average ticket, excluding fuel [^][^][^]. Pharmacy deflation and brand-to-generic transfers, influenced by maximum fair price regulations, reduced Q2 FY27 comparable sales growth by approximately 125 basis points [^][^][^][^].
Walmart updated its fiscal 2027 full-year sales and EPS guidance. Walmart stated it raised its full-year fiscal 2027 net sales growth guidance to a range of 4.0% to 5.0%, up from the previous range of 3.5% to 4.5% [^][^][^]. However, as of August 21, 2026, Walmart maintained its fiscal year 2027 guidance for net sales to increase 3.5% to 4.5% [^][^]. For adjusted EPS, Walmart expected a full-year range of $2.80 to $2.87 as of August 20, 2026 [^][^][^]. As of August 21, 2026, the company's adjusted earnings per share guidance was reported as $2.75 to $2.87 [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 3.6%
📈 August 21, 2026: 69.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 74.0%
What happened: No specific social media activity or posts causing this prediction market price movement are found in the provided research. The primary driver was likely a rapid re-interpretation of Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings, released on August 20, 2026 [^][^][^]. While reported comparable sales (ex-fuel) were 2.6%, the earnings detailed a significant 125 basis point headwind from pharmacy deflation [^][^]. This likely led market participants to conclude that underlying core sales growth was stronger (e.g., ~3.85% for Q2, factoring out the headwind), increasing confidence that full fiscal year 2027 comparable sales would be "Above 3.6%" [^][^]. Given the absence of specific social media findings, social media activity appears irrelevant to this event based on the provided information.
📉 August 20, 2026: 82.0pp drop
Price decreased from 87.0% to 5.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the official announcement of Walmart's Q2 fiscal year 2027 U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) on August 20, 2026 [^][^]. Walmart announced growth of 2.6%, which was below the "Above 3.6%" outcome the market was tracking and missed the 3.6% consensus expectation [^][^][^]. This traditional news release directly contradicted the higher sales growth prediction, causing the significant price drop [^][^][^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity from influential figures or viral narratives was found in the provided research.
Outcome: Above 4%
📉 August 19, 2026: 73.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 2.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market drop on August 19, 2026, was likely the market's strong anticipation or pre-release knowledge of Walmart's significantly slower U.S. comparable sales growth. While Walmart officially announced Q2 FY27 U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) of 2.6% [^][^][^][^] on August 20, 2026 [^][^][^][^], falling short of market expectations and marking the slowest growth in years [^][^], the prediction market moved the day prior. Based on the provided sources, no specific social media activity or traditional news announcement on August 19, 2026, can be directly identified as the catalyst for this anticipatory move. Social media is irrelevant to this specific movement based on the available information.
Outcome: Above 3.4%
📉 August 18, 2026: 33.0pp drop
Price decreased from 95.0% to 62.0%
What happened: The 33.0 percentage point drop on August 18, 2026, for the "Above 3.4%" outcome, preceded Walmart's official Q2 FY27 earnings release on August 20, 2026 [^]. The earnings later reported Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for Q2 FY27 at 2.6% [^][^][^][^], which falls below the 3.4% threshold, logically making the "Above 3.4%" outcome less probable. However, the research does not indicate a recognized public event, breaking news, or social media activity on August 18, 2026, that directly caused this specific market movement [^]. Based on the available information, the primary driver for this price move cannot be definitively identified, and social media appears to be irrelevant.
Outcome: Above 4.4%
📈 August 17, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 40.0%
What happened: The provided information does not identify a primary driver for an 11.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 4.4%" outcome on August 17, 2026. Walmart announced its Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, which included U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) of 2.6%, on August 20, 2026 [^][^][^]. This figure was below Wall Street expectations of 3.5% and led to an approximately 9% decline in Walmart's shares, not a positive spike [^]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors are present in the provided sources to explain a positive price movement on August 17, 2026, specifically for an outcome exceeding 4.4%, given the official lower results announced later. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, and the premise of the price spike contradicts the timing and nature of the official financial disclosures.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Walmart's US comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) for fiscal 2027 is above 3.8%. It resolves to NO if the growth is 3.8% or lower. Trading for this market ends on February 18, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 19, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | $0.99 | $0.26 | 75% |
| Above 3.6% | $0.88 | $0.90 | 67% |
| Above 4.2% | $0.59 | $0.96 | 59% |
| Above 3.8% | $0.90 | $0.94 | 52% |
| Above 4.6% | $0.60 | $0.97 | 24% |
| Above 4.4% | $0.60 | $0.96 | 14% |
| Above 4.8% | $0.84 | $0.96 | 9% |
| Above 5% | $0.21 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Above 4% | $0.91 | $0.98 | 1% |
Market Discussion
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score65Caution
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score62Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. How did Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth in the first half of fiscal year 2027 compare to its primary competitors, Target and Costco?
| Walmart U.S. Comparable Sales Growth (H1 FY27) | 3.45% (ended July 31, 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Target Comparable Sales Growth (H1 FY26) | 4.7% (ended August 1, 2026) [^][^] |
| Costco U.S. Comparable Sales Growth (FY26, first 48 weeks) | Approximately 6.7% (ended August 2, 2026) [^][^] |
Walmart's U.S. comparable sales grew 3.45% in early FY27. Walmart U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel, achieved a growth of 3.45% in the first half of fiscal year 2027, which concluded on July 31, 2026 [^][^]. This figure is derived from the average of its Q1 FY27 growth at 4.1% and Q2 FY27 growth at 2.6% [^][^].
Direct comparison to competitors for FY27 is currently unavailable. Current data does not allow for a direct comparison of Walmart's first half fiscal year 2027 performance with Target's or Costco's for the same period, as information regarding their comparable sales growth for the first half of fiscal year 2027 is not available. However, historical data for the first half of fiscal year 2026 indicates that Target reported comparable sales growth of 4.7%, comprising 5.6% in Q1 and 3.8% in Q2, with its half-year ending on August 1, 2026 [^][^]. For the first 48 weeks of fiscal year 2026, ending August 2, 2026, Costco's U.S. comparable sales, excluding gasoline and foreign exchange impacts, grew by approximately 6.7% [^][^].
7. What is the consensus forecast among Wall Street analysts for Walmart's full-year FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth following its Q2 earnings report?
| Q2 FY2027 U.S. Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) | 2.6% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Pre-Q2 Wall Street Consensus (U.S. Comp Sales Growth) | 3.5%–3.8% [^][^][^] |
| FY2027 Net Sales Growth Guidance (new) | 4.0%–5.0% (constant currency) [^][^][^] |
Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales growth missed analyst expectations for Q2 FY2027. Following its earnings report on August 20, 2026, Walmart announced U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, of 2.6% [^][^][^]. This result was below Wall Street's consensus, which had anticipated U.S. comparable sales growth, ex-fuel, for the quarter to be between 3.5% and 3.8% [^][^][^].
8. What effect are macroeconomic trends, particularly consumer spending and inflation rates in late 2026, expected to have on Walmart's sales in the second half of its fiscal year?
| Full-year fiscal 2027 net sales growth guidance | 4.0% to 5.0% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Incremental fuel-related cost headwinds for FY27 | over $2 billion [^][^][^][^] |
| Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) in Q2 FY27 | 2.6% [^][^][^][^] |
Macroeconomic trends are expected to temper Walmart's sales in late 2026. A "softer consumer environment" and elevated fuel prices are projected to influence the company's sales in the second half of fiscal year 2027 [^][^][^]. Management has described the consumer landscape as a "strained economic environment," specifically noting fuel prices exceeding $4 per gallon as a factor forcing consumers to make trade-offs [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Walmart anticipates over $2 billion in additional fuel-related cost headwinds for FY27, although inflation for its merchandise mix is expected to remain moderate at 1-2% [^][^][^][^].
Walmart's sales growth slowed, prompting strategic responses for market share. These macroeconomic factors contributed to Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) reaching 2.6% in Q2 FY27, which was its slowest quarterly increase in six years [^][^][^][^]. This growth was further impacted by high fuel prices and a 125 basis point headwind from health and wellness regulatory changes [^][^][^][^]. To maintain market share through the latter half of fiscal year 2027, Walmart plans to focus on price investments, utilizing nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds to fund over 11,000 price rollbacks in Q2, alongside continued eCommerce growth [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. How does Walmart's e-commerce sales growth for mid-2026 compare against Amazon's online retail growth for the same period?
| Walmart Global e-commerce sales growth (Q2 FY27) | 23% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. e-commerce sales growth (Q2 FY27) | 24% [^][^] |
| Amazon Online Stores revenue growth (Q2 2026) | 15% [^][^][^] |
Walmart's e-commerce growth significantly outpaced Amazon's online retail for mid-2026. During its Q2 fiscal 2027, Walmart reported a 23% increase in global e-commerce sales and a 24% rise in U.S. e-commerce sales [^][^]. In contrast, Amazon's Online Stores revenue grew by 15% year-over-year in its Q2 2026, covering the same period [^][^][^].
Both retailers demonstrated strong performance and positive outlooks in their respective quarters. Walmart's Q2 fiscal 2027 also saw a 2.6% growth in U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel [^][^], and the company projects net sales for fiscal 2027 to increase between 4.0% and 5.0% in constant currency [^]. Amazon's Q2 2026 benefited from strong consumer engagement, largely fueled by Prime Day sales, indicating a sustained trend towards online shopping [^][^].
10. How are the specific headwinds from pharmacy deflation projected to impact Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth in Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2027?
| FY27 U.S. comparable sales headwind (pharmacy deflation) | 125 basis points (full fiscal year) [^] |
|---|---|
| Maximum fair price regulation effective date | January 1, 2026 [^] |
| Q3 FY27 sales growth headwind (Flipkart timing) | over 100 basis points [^][^][^] |
Walmart did not detail quarterly impacts of pharmacy deflation for FY27. While Walmart did not provide specific quarterly breakdowns for the impact of pharmacy deflation on its U.S. comparable sales growth for Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2027, the company estimated a broader headwind [^][^]. Walmart projected a 125 basis point headwind for the entire fiscal year 2027 to its U.S. comparable sales, primarily stemming from pharmacy deflation and brand-to-generic transfers [^]. This overall estimated headwind is associated with the initial year of maximum fair price regulation, which became effective on January 1, 2026 [^].
No specific distribution for the annual pharmacy headwind was provided. Despite offering a comprehensive annual estimate, Walmart did not specify how the 125 basis point impact from pharmacy deflation would be distributed across the third and fourth quarters of fiscal year 2027 [^][^]. Separately, for Q3 fiscal year 2027, Walmart did report an anticipated sales growth headwind exceeding 100 basis points. This distinct impact is attributed to a timing shift of Flipkart's Big Billion Days event between Q3 and Q4 [^][^][^], and it is important to note that this particular headwind is unrelated to the pharmacy deflation effect.
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Walmart updated its fiscal 2027 consolidated net sales growth guidance (constant currency) to an increase of 4.0% to 5.0% as of August 20, 2026, up from its initial 3.5% to 4.5% guidance issued in February 2026 [^] [^] [^] . (WMT)" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. This revision follows Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1% in Q1 FY27 and 2.6% in Q2 FY27 [^][^].
Key catalysts for performance include strong global eCommerce momentum (+23% in Q2) [^] [^] , and overall eCommerce strength (26% growth in Q2) [^] [^] , alongside growth in advertising and marketplace services [^] [^] . (WMT)" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^], and overall eCommerce strength (26% growth in Q2) [^][^], alongside growth in advertising and marketplace services [^][^]. The strategic reinvestment of tariff refunds into customer pricing also aims to drive share gains [^][^]. Conversely, headwinds include an estimated 125 basis point impact from pharmacy deflation for FY27 [^][^], with Q2 fiscal 2027 Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) reflecting a negative 125 basis point headwind from pharmacy deflation related to maximum fair price regulation [^][^]. Potential consumer spending pressure and the impact of price investments on operating margins also present risks [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 19, 2027
- Closes: May 19, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Walmart updated its fiscal 2027 consolidated net sales growth guidance (constant currency) to an increase of 4.0% to 5.0% as of August 20, 2026, up from its initial 3.5% to 4.5% guidance issued in February 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This revision follows Walmart U.S.
- Trigger: Comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) of 4.1% in Q1 FY27 and 2.6% in Q2 FY27 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key catalysts for performance include strong global eCommerce momentum (+23% in Q2) [^] [^] , and overall eCommerce strength (26% growth in Q2) [^] [^] , alongside growth in advertising and marketplace services [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
