Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Kroger's fiscal 2026 identical sales growth (excl. fuel) to be Above 0%, reflecting Kroger's reaffirmed guidance of 1.0% to 2.0% and underlying operational growth projected at 2.3% to 3.3%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has been completely static, opening and holding at a 95.0% probability. The chart shows a flat line with no price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. This inactivity is directly attributable to a lack of trading.
Total volume traded is zero contracts. This absence of activity indicates there is no market conviction being expressed through trades. The current price reflects only the initial market seeding, not a consensus formed through buying or selling pressure. Because the price has not moved, no support or resistance levels have been established.
The static 95.0% price suggests a high initial confidence that Kroger's fiscal 2026 identical sales growth, excluding fuel, will meet the market's resolution criteria. This pricing aligns with Kroger's official guidance, which projects growth between 1.0% and 2.0% for the full fiscal year. The company's reported 1.0% growth for the first quarter provides an early data point consistent with this guidance.
  • Kroger sales growth appears likely above 2% due to underlying operational performance.
  • Official guidance of 1.0-2.0% is dampened by a 130 basis point IRA headwind.
  • Digital business profitability and Boost membership growth may drive sales higher.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 0.5% 56.0% 20.0% Market higher by 36.0pp
Above 1% 56.0% 20.0% Market higher by 36.0pp
Above 0% 75.0% 20.0% Market higher by 55.0pp
Above 3% 4.0% 10.0% Model higher by 6.0pp
Above 1.5% 2.0% 20.0% Model higher by 18.0pp

Current Context

Kroger projects modest identical sales growth for fiscal 2026. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company reported identical sales growth (excluding fuel) of 1.0% [1][2][3]. Kroger's full-year fiscal 2026 guidance for identical sales growth, also excluding fuel, is set between 1.0% and 2.0% [1][4]. This guidance incorporates an estimated 130 basis point headwind due to the Inflation Reduction Act [4][5].
Management expects second quarter identical sales, excluding fuel, to align with the first quarter's 1.0% growth [5]. Other fiscal 2026 guidance metrics include an Adjusted FIFO operating profit range of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion [1][4]. Adjusted EPS for the full year is projected to be between $5.10 and $5.30 [1][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.kroger.com
  2. 2Kroger Co._May 23, 2026sec.gov
  3. 3[PDF] Kroger Q1 2026 Earnings Releases202.q4cdn.com
  4. 4The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results and Announces Guidance for 2026ir.kroger.com
  5. 5The Kroger Co.s202.q4cdn.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "YES" if Kroger's identical sales growth (excluding fuel) for fiscal 2026 is above the specified percentage for a given contract, and "NO" if it is at or below that percentage. Trading ends on March 4, 4:00 pm EST. The resolution is based on Kroger's official reporting for fiscal 2026's identical sales growth (excluding fuel), with a maximum payout date of June 2, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 0% $0.89 $0.20 75%
Above 0.5% $0.74 $0.35 56%
Above 1% $0.62 $0.46 56%
Above 2% $0.12 $0.98 12%
Above 3% $0.06 $0.99 4%
Above 1.5% $0.38 $0.70 2%
Above 2.5% $0.05 $0.99 2%

Market Discussion

Kroger announced full-year fiscal 2026 guidance for identical sales excluding fuel in the range of 1.0% to 2.0% [1][2][3]. The company reported 1.0% growth in identical sales without fuel in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [2][4]. For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, social media and financial blog commentary projects identical sales (ex-fuel) in the 1.5% to 2.5% range, while monitoring indicators such as Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM) revenue and digital channel growth [5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results...ir.kroger.com
  2. 2Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.kroger.com
  3. 3Tm267907d1 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
  4. 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  5. 5Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhubalphagridhub.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 67 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score55Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
86Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXKRA 27MARIDSALES” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
69Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

4 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1%69
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 14% vs realized 2%
Above 0%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 0.5%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 3%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
82Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

4 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 0%75
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Above 0.5%83
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Above 1%—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above 3%—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 0%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 0.5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
55Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 69 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 4.5c slippage (~5% of a 84.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 0%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 0.5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality83Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
83 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1%69Market scoreLiquidity69Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 69
Liquidity
69 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 14% vs realized 2%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 22, 2026

5. How do analyst projections for Kroger's FY2026 identical sales growth compare to those for its main competitors, Walmart and Albertsons?

Kroger FY26 Identical Sales Growth (excl. fuel)1.0% to 2.0% [1][2][3][4][5]
Kroger FY26 Identical Sales Growth (excl. IRA headwind)2.3% to 3.3% [3]
Albertsons FY26 Identical Sales Growth0.0% to 1.0% [6]
Kroger's FY2026 identical sales growth guidance spans 1.0% to 2.0%. The company has officially guided for identical sales growth, excluding fuel, in this range for fiscal year 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Adjusting for an approximate 130 basis point headwind related to the Inflation Reduction Act's impact on pharmacy reimbursement rates, Kroger's underlying identical sales growth expectation for fiscal 2026 is projected to be between 2.3% and 3.3% [3]. Market analyst consensus for Kroger's identical sales growth is generally cited in the 1.5% to 2.5% range [7].
Competitor projections for identical sales growth vary significantly. Albertsons anticipates a lower identical sales growth for fiscal year 2026, projecting between 0.0% and 1.0% [6]. Walmart, however, does not employ an 'identical sales' metric directly comparable to Kroger's for fiscal year 2026 [8]. Although Walmart reported a Q4 FY26 U.S. comparable sales growth of 4.6% [8][9][10], this figure relates to a different metric and quarter. Additionally, Walmart's projection for total net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% (constant currency) is for fiscal year 2027, which is not comparable to the fiscal 2026 timeframe under consideration [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  3. 3Kroger KR Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Kroger (NYSE:KR) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictionssimplywall.st
  5. 5Kroger keeps forecasts soft as new CEO bets on growth by... - Reutersreuters.com
  6. 6Kroger (KR) vs. Albertsons (ACI) — A Thorough Comparison... - notenote.com
  7. 7Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhubalphagridhub.com
  8. 8Q4 FY26 Earnings Releasecorporate.walmart.com
  9. 9Q4 FY26 Earnings Presentationcorporate.walmart.com
  10. 10Walmart, Inc.stock.walmart.com

6. What specific provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act create the 130 basis point headwind cited in Kroger's fiscal 2026 guidance?

IRA Sales Headwind130 basis points [1][2][3][4]
Fiscal 2026 Sales Guidance (excluding fuel)1.0% to 2.0% [1][2][4]
Cause of HeadwindLower prices on specific Medicare-covered drugs [5]
Kroger's fiscal 2026 guidance anticipates a significant sales headwind. The company's identical sales growth guidance, excluding fuel, incorporates a 130 basis point headwind directly attributed to the Inflation Reduction Act [1][2][3][4]. This financial impact is specifically a result of provisions within the act that mandate Kroger to book lower prices on certain Medicare-covered drugs [5].
Despite the headwind, Kroger projects modest identical sales growth. The company's overall guidance for identical sales (excluding fuel) in fiscal 2026 is projected to be between 1.0% and 2.0% [1][2][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results and Announces Guidance for 2026ir.kroger.com
  2. 2The Kroger Co. - Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.kroger.com
  3. 3Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
  4. 4[PDF] Kroger Q1 2026 Earnings Releases202.q4cdn.com
  5. 5Kroger Forecasts Muted Annual Sales, Profit As New CEO Takes Helm | Checkoutcheckout.ie

7. Which company-specific initiatives, like digital fulfillment or private-label brand performance, could drive Kroger's sales growth above or below its FY2026 guidance?

Q1 2026 Digital Sales Growth19% (excluding legacy fulfillment center exits, Vitacost, and Ship Marketplace) [1][2][3]
Private-label Share Gain Q1 2026175 basis points relative to national brands [1][3]
Q1 2026 Identical Sales Growth (excluding fuel)1.0% [4][5][3]
Kroger's digital and private-label initiatives could boost sales beyond guidance. In Q1 2026, Kroger's digital business achieved profitability, with sales growing by 19%, excluding legacy fulfillment center exits, Vitacost, and Ship Marketplace, driven by store-based fulfillment and retail media [1][2][3]. Concurrently, private-label "Our Brands" significantly contributed to sales growth, with "Simple Truth" and "Private Selection" increasing their market share by 175 basis points relative to national brands in the same period [1][3]. Sustained strength in these initiatives, along with expected accelerated growth in the second half of the year from cost-saving and reinvestment strategies, could propel Kroger's FY2026 identical sales growth, excluding fuel, above its guidance range of 1.0% to 2.0% [4][6][5][7][3][1][2][8][9].
Current headwinds temper sales, but H2 acceleration is anticipated. In Q1 2026, identical sales, excluding fuel, rose by 1.0%, a figure impacted by a 130 basis point headwind from the Inflation Reduction Act, a 40 basis point shift from brand to generic prescriptions, and 64 basis points of egg deflation [4][5][3]. Kroger projects Q2 2026 identical sales to align closely with Q1 performance, but forecasts a potential acceleration in growth during the second half of the year as planned cost-saving and reinvestment strategies begin to take effect [8][9]. The degree to which these existing headwinds persist or are alleviated, combined with the impact of the strategic cost reductions and reinvestments, will ultimately determine whether full-year sales growth falls within or surpasses the established guidance range [4][5][3][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Kroger (KR) Q1 2026: E-Commerce Profitability Arrives as Digital Grows 19% | EarningsIQearningsiq.co
  2. 2Kroger Achieves First-Ever E-Commerce Profitability as Digital Sales Surge 19% in Q1 2026 - InfotechLeadinfotechlead.com
  3. 3Kroger Co._May 23, 2026sec.gov
  4. 4Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.kroger.com
  5. 5https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  6. 6Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results...ir.kroger.com
  7. 7Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
  8. 8The Kroger Co.s202.q4cdn.com
  9. 9The Kroger Co.s202.q4cdn.com

8. What is Kroger's reporting schedule for fiscal 2026, and which quarterly reports will be most crucial for tracking identical sales growth?

Q1 2026 Identical Sales Growth (ex-fuel)1.0% [1][2]
Full-Year 2026 Identical Sales Growth Guidance (ex-fuel)1.0% to 2.0% [1][2]
Q1 2026 Report DateJune 18, 2026 [1]
Kroger's fiscal 2026 reporting includes quarterly results, identical sales are key. Kroger's fiscal year 2026 reporting schedule features quarterly results, with the first quarter having been reported on June 18, 2026 [1]. Identical sales, excluding fuel, serves as a core Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the company. This metric is consistently disclosed in every quarterly earnings release and is considered crucial for performance tracking [3].
Q1 2026 identical sales met guidance, but markets track future growth. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Kroger reported identical sales growth (excluding fuel) of 1.0% [1][2]. This aligns with the company's full-year 2026 guidance, which projects identical sales growth (excluding fuel) to be in the range of 1.0% to 2.0% [1][2]. This particular metric faces significant scrutiny, with prediction markets closely monitoring fiscal year 2026 annual identical sales growth (excluding fuel) against thresholds like 1.5% [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.kroger.com
  2. 2Kroger Co._May 23, 2026sec.gov
  3. 3https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  4. 4Kroger sales growth (excl. fuel) in fiscal 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

9. How might shifting macroeconomic trends, particularly food inflation and consumer spending, affect Kroger's sales volume in the second half of fiscal 2026?

Kroger FY2026 Sales Growth Guidance1.0% to 2.0% (excluding fuel) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
US Grocery Unit Sales DeclineApproximately 2% year-over-year (February to June 2026) [11][12][13][14][15]
Guidance Release DateQ1 2026 earnings report on June 18, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
Kroger anticipates significant headwinds impacting sales volume in the second half of fiscal 2026. The company expects this period to be shaped by intensifying inflationary pressures, cautious consumer spending, reduced SNAP benefits, and recent increases in fuel costs [16][17][2]. Despite these challenges, Kroger maintained its fiscal 2026 identical sales growth guidance (excluding fuel) at 1.0% to 2.0% following its Q1 2026 earnings report on June 18, 2026. Volume sensitivity is identified as a key factor influencing this low-single-digit growth expectation [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Moderating inflation could boost nominal sales despite unit volume challenges. If food inflation remains elevated but gradually moderates, Kroger could achieve nominal sales growth through higher basket values, even with unit volume remaining flat to slightly positive [5][6][7][8][9][10]. However, a softening in consumer spending during the second half of fiscal 2026 may prompt shoppers to trade down, purchase fewer discretionary items, or opt for lower-ticket baskets, which would likely cap unit volume growth. This trend is already evident across the broader US grocery industry, where unit sales were down approximately 2% year-over-year from February to June 2026, as price increases no longer fully offset declining unit volume [11][12][13][14][15]. To counteract these headwinds, Kroger is prioritizing affordability, accelerating cost-saving initiatives, growing its digital and eCommerce channels, and reinvesting in pricing to stay competitive and support volume [16][17][2].
Future sales volume will hinge on traffic and perceived value more than just inflation. For the second half of fiscal 2026, sales volume is anticipated to depend more on traffic and trip frequency, despite food inflation’s ability to boost reported sales [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Kroger's strategic focus on value and tactics such as cutting prices to boost sales suggest management is preparing for a price-sensitive consumer base [12][5][6][7][8][9][10]. While a slowdown in consumer spending could restrict unit volume, a continued preference for at-home meals over dining out might help Kroger gain share in grocery spend and support overall volume [12][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Kroger flags rising inflation as consumers curb spending - Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Kroger tops sales forecasts amid intensifying value battlechaindrugreview.com
  3. 3Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results...ir.kroger.com
  4. 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  5. 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  6. 6www.fastcompany.comOctagon Agentfastcompany.com
  7. 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  8. 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  9. 9www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  10. 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  11. 11The US Grocery Slowdown Is Real | Bain & Companybain.com
  12. 12US grocery slowdown enters a new phase as stretched consumers buy less — Bain & Company analysis | Bain & Companybain.com
  13. 13Grocery growth has stalled as retailers compete for a shrinking pool of tripsemarketer.com
  14. 14Grocery volumes contract for fifth consecutive month, report finds | Food Divefooddive.com
  15. 15Grocery unit sales reach a low point: reportsupermarketnews.com
  16. 16The Kroger Co.s202.q4cdn.com
  17. 17The Kroger Co. (KR) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - June 18, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for Kroger include the Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM) alternative profit engine and Boost membership growth [1]. The execution of the $4.5 billion buyback plan and the impact of the new CEO, Greg Foran, are also noted [1]. An investor update is scheduled for October 20, 2026 [1].
For fiscal year 2026, Kroger guided for identical sales growth (excluding fuel) of 1.0% to 2.0% [2][3][4][5][6]. The company reported identical sales growth (excluding fuel) of 1.0% in Q1 2026, reaffirming its full-year guidance [2][6]. Fiscal year 2026 financial KPIs include adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5.0–$5.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $5.10–$5.30, free cash flow of $2.7–$2.9 billion, and capital expenditures of $3.8–$4.0 billion [2][3][6]. Digital profitability, strong free cash flow, and valuation at historic lows support bullish arguments [7][1][8], while slowing growth, insider selling, and competition drive bearish concerns [7][1][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 02, 2027
  • Closes: June 02, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1Kroger KR Q2 FY26 Earnings Preview — Identical Sales +1.5-2.5%, Boost Membership, KPM Retail Media, Post-Albertsons Reset - alphagridhubalphagridhub.com
  2. 2Kroger Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.kroger.com
  3. 3Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results...ir.kroger.com
  4. 4https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926075395/tm2618219d1_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  5. 5Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results - SEC.govsec.gov
  6. 6Kroger Q1 2026 Earnings Releases202.q4cdn.com
  7. 7Why Kroger's Pullback Could Be a Gift for Patient Investorsmarketbeat.com
  8. 8Kroger (KR) Stock Analysis 2026clearank.com