Dollar General same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Dollar General's fiscal 2026 sales growth is guided at 2.2% to 2.7%.
- Wall Street analysts project 2.48% growth, aligning with Q1 2026 performance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | 93.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 73.0pp |
| Above 3% | 17.0% | 5.0% | Market higher by 12.0pp |
| Above 2.5% | 40.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 20.0pp |
| Above 2% | 71.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 51.0pp |
| Above 4% | 4.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
Current Context
Sources (11)
- 1Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 2Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 3Dollar General Q1 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year EPS forecastfinance.yahoo.com
- 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 11Dollargeneral - News Releases - Dollar General Investor Relationsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 83.0%
Outcome: Above 2%
Sources (10)
- 1DG Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beat of 3.01% Drives Modest Stock Gain - Earnings Analysismarking.cxc.org
- 2Dollar General (NYSE: DG) Expands $1 Offerings With 18.4% Comp Sales Increasekalkine.com
- 3Dollar General (DG) Back In Focus As Earnings Beat Meets A Modest Valuation Case - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 4Dollar General (DG) Holds Its Ground at $127.45 as Discount Retail Demand Stays Resilient - Positive Gammakent-teach.com
- 5DG Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates as Value Retailer Shows Resilience - Return On Equitykent-teach.com
- 6Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 7DG_Q12026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8DG_Q12026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9DG_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 10DG_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns Dollar General's same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026. A "Yes" contract resolves if the sales growth is above the specified percentage, while a "No" contract resolves if the growth is at or below that percentage. The market will close on March 11 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of June 9, 2027. No special settlement conditions are detailed on this page beyond the stated sales growth thresholds.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | $0.94 | $0.14 | 93% |
| Above 2% | $0.79 | $0.29 | 71% |
| Above 2.5% | $0.55 | $0.54 | 40% |
| Above 3% | $0.24 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Above 4% | $0.06 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Above 1% | $0.99 | $0.08 | 0% |
| Above 3.5% | $0.08 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Dollar General maintains its fiscal 2026 guidance for same-store sales growth in the range of 2.2% to 2.7% [1][2], having reported a 2.0% increase in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, primarily driven by customer traffic [3][1][2]. Despite this, investor and analyst sentiment highlights concerns regarding increased competition, promotional intensity, and macroeconomic volatility [4][5], leading to a negative market reaction to the initial fiscal 2026 sales forecast in March 2026, which some considered conservative [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2DG’s Upbeat Q1, Improved Guidance Draws Investor Optimism – Here’s What CEO Todd Vasos Said About Navigating Current Macroeconomic Environmentstocktwits.com
- 3Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 4Dollar General Margin Gains Offset Weather And Fuel Cost Pressures - Dollar General (NYSE:DG) - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 5Dollar General sales soar as customers trade down at 'accelerated...retaildive.com
- 6Dollar General expects muted annual sales on weak spending...reuters.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How does Dollar General's fiscal 2026 same-store sales guidance and performance drivers compare to those of its chief rival, Dollar Tree?
| Dollar Tree FY2026 SSS Growth Guidance | 3.0% to 4.0% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Dollar General FY2026 SSS Growth Guidance | 2.2% to 2.7% [3][4] |
| Dollar Tree Latest Comparable Growth Breakdown | 3.50% growth from 4.50% higher average ticket and 1.00% traffic decline [3][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
Sources (12)
- 1Dollar Tree, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)corporate.dollartree.com
- 28-K - 05/28/2026 - Dollar Tree, Inc.corporate.dollartree.com
- 3Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 4Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 5www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
- 6www.schaeffersresearch.comOctagon Agentschaeffersresearch.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 11Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 12Dollar General Has the Trips, Dollar Tree Has the Ticketwatsonweekly.com
7. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Dollar General's full-year fiscal 2026 same-store sales growth, and how has this consensus evolved since the start of the year?
| Analyst Consensus FY2026 Same-Store Sales Growth | 2.48% (Reuters/MarketScreener, 2026-03-12) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| DG FY2026 Same-Store Sales Guidance (Lower) | 2.2% [7][8][9][10][11] |
| DG FY2026 Same-Store Sales Guidance (Upper) | 2.7% [7][8][9][10][11] |
Sources (11)
- 1DG_Q12026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 2DG_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 3DG_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4DG_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5DG_Q12026, Page: 10Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7Dollar General expects muted annual sales on weak spending...reuters.com
- 8Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
- 9Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 10Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 11Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
8. What are the key performance indicators to watch in Dollar General's upcoming Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports that could signal a revision to full-year guidance?
| Net Sales Growth | 3.7% to 4.2% (full-year 2026 guidance) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Same-Store Sales Growth | 2.2% to 2.7% (full-year 2026 guidance) [1][2][3] |
| Diluted EPS | $7.20 to $7.45 (full-year 2026 guidance) [1][2][3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 3Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Dollar General (DG) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to...finance.yahoo.com
- 5Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
- 6DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION_January 30, 2026sec.gov
9. Where can historical quarterly same-store sales data for Dollar General be found, and what is the typical release schedule?
| Q1 2026 Results Release | June 2, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Sales Growth Guidance | 2.2% to 2.7% [2][3][4] |
| Q1 2026 Actual Sales Growth | 2.0% [2][3][4] |
10. How might shifts in U.S. consumer spending habits and inflation trends through fiscal 2026 impact Dollar General's ability to meet its sales targets?
| FY26 Same-Store Sales Growth Guidance | 2.2% to 2.7% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 Same-Store Sales Growth | 2.0% [1][2][3] |
| Core Shopper Income | Most earn under $30,000 [8] |
Sources (11)
- 1Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 2Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 3Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (8-K) - 2026-03-12, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (8-K) - 2026-05-28, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (8-K) - 2026-05-28, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 8Dollar General says its core shoppers, most earning under $30,000, are now "very stretched" - The Financial Wirethefinancialwire.com
- 9Dollar General sees 'accelerated' customer trade down as higher-income shoppers cut spending - DTC Dispatchdtcdispatch.com
- 10Can the Dollar Store Boom Survive 2026?investopedia.com
- 11DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION_January 30, 2026 - SEC.govsec.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 09, 2027
- Closes: June 09, 2027
Sources (13)
- 1Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2Dollar General Stock Q1 2027 Earnings Result: EPS Beats, Guidance Rises, and Now the Margin Story Has to Prove Itself | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 3Dollar General Q1 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year EPS forecastfinance.yahoo.com
- 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8Dollar General: This Re-Rating Story Still Has Room To Shine (NYSE:DG) | Seeking AlphaOctagon Agentseekingalpha.com
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
- 11Dollar General (DG): The Turnaround Hides in Shrinkminnowstreet.com
- 12Dollar General: The Trade-In Thesis Still Intact (NYSE:DG) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 13Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com