Dollar General same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Dollar General's fiscal 2026 sales growth is guided at 2.2% to 2.7%.
- Wall Street analysts project 2.48% growth, aligning with Q1 2026 performance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | 92.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 72.0pp |
| Above 2.5% | 40.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 20.0pp |
| Above 3% | 17.0% | 5.0% | Market higher by 12.0pp |
| Above 2% | 65.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 45.0pp |
| Above 4% | 4.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
Current Context
Sources (11)
- 1Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 2Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 3Dollar General Q1 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year EPS forecastfinance.yahoo.com
- 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 11Dollargeneral - News Releases - Dollar General Investor Relationsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 07, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 83.0%
Outcome: Above 2%
Sources (10)
- 1DG Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beat of 3.01% Drives Modest Stock Gain - Earnings Analysismarking.cxc.org
- 2Dollar General (NYSE: DG) Expands $1 Offerings With 18.4% Comp Sales Increasekalkine.com
- 3Dollar General (DG) Back In Focus As Earnings Beat Meets A Modest Valuation Case - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 4Dollar General (DG) Holds Its Ground at $127.45 as Discount Retail Demand Stays Resilient - Positive Gammakent-teach.com
- 5DG Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates as Value Retailer Shows Resilience - Return On Equitykent-teach.com
- 6Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 7DG_Q12026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8DG_Q12026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9DG_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 10DG_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns Dollar General's same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026. A "Yes" contract resolves if the sales growth is above the specified percentage, while a "No" contract resolves if the growth is at or below that percentage. The market will close on March 11 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of June 9, 2027. No special settlement conditions are detailed on this page beyond the stated sales growth thresholds.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | $0.92 | $0.16 | 92% |
| Above 2% | $0.78 | $0.31 | 65% |
| Above 2.5% | $0.50 | $0.59 | 40% |
| Above 3% | $0.17 | $0.92 | 17% |
| Above 4% | $0.06 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Above 1% | $0.99 | $0.09 | 0% |
| Above 3.5% | $0.07 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Dollar General maintains its fiscal 2026 guidance for same-store sales growth in the range of 2.2% to 2.7% [1][2], having reported a 2.0% increase in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, primarily driven by customer traffic [3][1][2]. Despite this, investor and analyst sentiment highlights concerns regarding increased competition, promotional intensity, and macroeconomic volatility [4][5], leading to a negative market reaction to the initial fiscal 2026 sales forecast in March 2026, which some considered conservative [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2DG’s Upbeat Q1, Improved Guidance Draws Investor Optimism – Here’s What CEO Todd Vasos Said About Navigating Current Macroeconomic Environmentstocktwits.com
- 3Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 4Dollar General Margin Gains Offset Weather And Fuel Cost Pressures - Dollar General (NYSE:DG) - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 5Dollar General sales soar as customers trade down at 'accelerated...retaildive.com
- 6Dollar General expects muted annual sales on weak spending...reuters.com
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How does Dollar General's fiscal 2026 same-store sales guidance and performance drivers compare to those of its chief rival, Dollar Tree?
| Dollar Tree FY2026 SSS Growth Guidance | 3.0% to 4.0% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Dollar General FY2026 SSS Growth Guidance | 2.2% to 2.7% [3][4] |
| Dollar Tree Latest Comparable Growth Breakdown | 3.50% growth from 4.50% higher average ticket and 1.00% traffic decline [3][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
Sources (12)
- 1Dollar Tree, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)corporate.dollartree.com
- 28-K - 05/28/2026 - Dollar Tree, Inc.corporate.dollartree.com
- 3Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 4Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 5www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
- 6www.schaeffersresearch.comOctagon Agentschaeffersresearch.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 11Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 12Dollar General Has the Trips, Dollar Tree Has the Ticketwatsonweekly.com
7. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Dollar General's full-year fiscal 2026 same-store sales growth, and how has this consensus evolved since the start of the year?
| Analyst Consensus FY2026 Same-Store Sales Growth | 2.48% (Reuters/MarketScreener, 2026-03-12) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| DG FY2026 Same-Store Sales Guidance (Lower) | 2.2% [7][8][9][10][11] |
| DG FY2026 Same-Store Sales Guidance (Upper) | 2.7% [7][8][9][10][11] |
Sources (11)
- 1DG_Q12026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 2DG_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 3DG_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4DG_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5DG_Q12026, Page: 10Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7Dollar General expects muted annual sales on weak spending...reuters.com
- 8Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
- 9Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 10Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 11Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
8. What are the key performance indicators to watch in Dollar General's upcoming Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports that could signal a revision to full-year guidance?
| Net Sales Growth | 3.7% to 4.2% (full-year 2026 guidance) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Same-Store Sales Growth | 2.2% to 2.7% (full-year 2026 guidance) [1][2][3] |
| Diluted EPS | $7.20 to $7.45 (full-year 2026 guidance) [1][2][3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 3Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Dollar General (DG) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to...finance.yahoo.com
- 5Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
- 6DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION_January 30, 2026sec.gov
9. Where can historical quarterly same-store sales data for Dollar General be found, and what is the typical release schedule?
| Q1 2026 Results Release | June 2, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Sales Growth Guidance | 2.2% to 2.7% [2][3][4] |
| Q1 2026 Actual Sales Growth | 2.0% [2][3][4] |
10. How might shifts in U.S. consumer spending habits and inflation trends through fiscal 2026 impact Dollar General's ability to meet its sales targets?
| FY26 Same-Store Sales Growth Guidance | 2.2% to 2.7% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 Same-Store Sales Growth | 2.0% [1][2][3] |
| Core Shopper Income | Most earn under $30,000 [8] |
Sources (11)
- 1Tm2616084d1 ex99.htmsec.gov
- 2Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 3Dollar General (DG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (8-K) - 2026-03-12, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (8-K) - 2026-05-28, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (8-K) - 2026-05-28, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 8Dollar General says its core shoppers, most earning under $30,000, are now "very stretched" - The Financial Wirethefinancialwire.com
- 9Dollar General sees 'accelerated' customer trade down as higher-income shoppers cut spending - DTC Dispatchdtcdispatch.com
- 10Can the Dollar Store Boom Survive 2026?investopedia.com
- 11DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION_January 30, 2026 - SEC.govsec.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 09, 2027
- Closes: June 09, 2027
Sources (13)
- 1Dollar General Corporation Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2Dollar General Stock Q1 2027 Earnings Result: EPS Beats, Guidance Rises, and Now the Margin Story Has to Prove Itself | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 3Dollar General Q1 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year EPS forecastfinance.yahoo.com
- 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8Dollar General: This Re-Rating Story Still Has Room To Shine (NYSE:DG) | Seeking AlphaOctagon Agentseekingalpha.com
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com
- 11Dollar General (DG): The Turnaround Hides in Shrinkminnowstreet.com
- 12Dollar General: The Trade-In Thesis Still Intact (NYSE:DG) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 13Dollar General Corporation Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsinvestor.dollargeneral.com