Above 6.5%
Market Model 41.0% 0.7%
Above 4.5%
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Companies Markets
Company KPI Tracker Market-implied forecasts for deliveries, subscribers, orders and DAU, against Octagon's own estimate.Active Markets (61)
Above 5%
Market Model 45.0% 20.0%
Above 9%
Market Model 4.0% 5.0%
Above $166 billion
Market Model 41.0% 0.1%
Above $164 billion
Market Model 60.0% 0.1%
Above 368 thousand
Market Model 16.0% 26.8%
Above 377 thousand
Market Model 12.0% 8.0%
Above 12.5%
Market Model 20.0% 0.0%
Above 12%
Market Model 19.0% 0.0%
Above $65 billion
Market Model 55.0% 7.0%
Above $80 billion
Market Model 4.0% 1.0%
Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Kalshi
Above 16 billion
Market Model 69.0% 61.1%
Above 15.4 billion
Market Model 99.0% 94.0%
Above -5%
Market Model 35.0% 47.6%
Above -6%
Market Model 57.0% 59.1%
Above 11.6 billion
Market Model 86.0% 77.7%
Above 11.8 billion
Market Model 48.0% 56.4%
Above 16%
Market Model 35.0% 24.7%
Above 14%
Market Model 59.0% 29.8%
Above 1.01 billion
Market Model 85.0% 82.4%
Above 1.04 billion
Market Model 62.0% 46.2%
Above 1.6 billion
Market Model 2.0% 40.8%
Above 1.62 billion
Market Model 55.0% 8.9%
Above $225
Market Model 84.0% 78.0%
Above $220
Market Model 92.0% 79.0%
Above 5.2 million
Market Model 68.0% 35.0%
Above 5.4 million
Market Model 50.0% 25.0%
Above 110 thousand
Market Model 94.0% 89.9%
Above 108 thousand
Market Model 94.0% 89.9%
Above 520
Market Model 46.0% 15.0%
Above 515
Market Model 62.0% 66.3%
Above 186 million
Market Model 75.0% 51.6%
Above 190 million
Market Model 34.0% 8.6%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 20.0% 9.0%
Above 1.65 million
Market Model 80.0% 72.3%
Tesla headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 130000
Market Model 90.0% 81.9%
Above 140000
Market Model 38.0% 41.1%
Above 1.75 million
Market Model 75.0% 28.6%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 13.0% 8.1%
Above 316 million
Market Model 5.0% 27.0%
Above 328 million
Market Model 2.0% 5.5%
Above 800 million
Market Model 97.0% 91.0%
Above 810 million
Market Model 80.0% 84.0%
Spotify headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 7300
Market Model 33.0% 3.6%
Above 7400
Market Model 11.0% 3.4%
Above 41800
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Above 42000
Market Model 5.0% 1.0%
Above 3%
Market Model 76.0% 83.0%
Above 5%
Market Model 38.0% 14.0%
Above 54.5 billion
Market Model 93.0% 62.3%
Above 61 billion
Market Model 5.0% 2.1%
Meta headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 65000
Market Model 86.0% 85.7%
Above 77000
Market Model 7.0% 8.0%
Above 3.72 billion
Market Model 55.0% 53.3%
Above 3.68 billion
Market Model 79.0% 91.9%
Above 227 million
Market Model 59.0% 65.0%
Above 229 million
Market Model 32.0% 35.0%
Above 62 million
Market Model 14.0% 4.2%
Above 60 million
Market Model 18.0% 8.5%
Above 2 million
Market Model 80.0% 56.2%
Above 1.8 million
Market Model 99.0% 98.6%
Above $92 billion
Market Model 9.0% 9.7%
Above $91 billion
Market Model 12.0% 16.4%
Above 900 thousand
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Above 910 thousand
Market Model 3.0% 2.7%
Above 4320
Market Model 97.0% 98.8%
Above 4300
Market Model 99.0% 98.8%
Above 97.4 million
Market Model 24.0% 6.5%
Above 97.3 million
Market Model 97.0% 68.3%
Above 680
Market Model 4.0% 9.3%
Above 640
Market Model 56.0% 43.2%
Above 30.2 million
Market Model 22.0% 87.6%
Above 30 million
Market Model 28.0% 90.6%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 30.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 11.2%
Yes
Market Model 33.0% 17.5%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 85.4%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
New Xbox this year? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 27.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 1.9%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 12.8%
Elon Musk
Market Model 15.0% 50.2%
Nikita Bier
Market Model 12.0% 11.4%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Rafael Grossi
Market Model 56.0% 56.9%
Michelle Bachelet
Market Model 11.0% 8.9%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 35.3%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 10.6%
At least $100
Market Model 83.0% 70.0%
At least $1400
Market Model 71.0% 54.2%
Marianne Lake
Market Model 49.0% 24.5%
Troy Rohrbaugh
Market Model 23.0% 7.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 28.0% 30.8%
Before Apr 1, 2028
Market Model 46.0% 48.6%
Disney
Market Model 8.0% 1.9%
Netflix
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA same restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 6.5% | 41.0% | 0.7% | High | — | Refresh |
| Urban Outfitters comparable sales in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 5% | 45.0% | 20.0% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Sea Limited Shopee GMV in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $166 billion | 41.0% | 0.1% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Starbucks headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 368 thousand | 16.0% | 26.8% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 12.5% | 20.0% | 0.0% | High | 58 | Refresh |
| Robinhood event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $65 billion | 55.0% | 7.0% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16 billion | 69.0% | 61.1% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -5% | 35.0% | 47.6% | High | 47 | Refresh |
| Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 11.6 billion | 86.0% | 77.7% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| Meta advertisement impressions growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16% | 35.0% | 24.7% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Lyft total rides in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.01 billion | 85.0% | 82.4% | High | 50 | Refresh |
| Home Depot customer transactions in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.6 billion | 2.0% | 40.8% | High | 63 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $225 | 84.0% | 78.0% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Robinhood gold subscribers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5.2 million | 68.0% | 35.0% | High | 51 | Refresh |
| Chipotle headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 110 thousand | 94.0% | 89.9% | High | 50 | Refresh |
| CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 520 | 46.0% | 15.0% | High | 49 | Refresh |
| United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 186 million | 75.0% | 51.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Tesla total production in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.9 million | 20.0% | 9.0% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Tesla headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 130000 | 90.0% | 81.9% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Tesla total deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.75 million | 75.0% | 28.6% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Spotify premium subscribers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 316 million | 5.0% | 27.0% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Spotify total monthly active users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 800 million | 97.0% | 91.0% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Spotify headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 7300 | 33.0% | 3.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Starbucks total global stores in 2026 Top outcome: Above 41800 | 13.0% | 2.0% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Starbucks comparable transactions growth in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3% | 76.0% | 83.0% | High | 52 | Refresh |
| Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026 Top outcome: Above 54.5 billion | 93.0% | 62.3% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| Meta headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 65000 | 86.0% | 85.7% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Meta family daily active people in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.72 billion | 55.0% | 53.3% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 227 million | 59.0% | 65.0% | High | 53 | Refresh |
| Grab monthly transacting users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 62 million | 14.0% | 4.2% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2 million | 80.0% | 56.2% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above $92 billion | 9.0% | 9.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Chipotle total restaurant count in 2026 Top outcome: Above 4320 | 97.0% | 98.8% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 2026 Top outcome: Above 97.4 million | 24.0% | 6.5% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 680 | 4.0% | 9.3% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Robinhood funded customers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 30.2 million | 22.0% | 87.6% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel this year? Yes refers to: a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 71 | Refresh |
| Will xAI release a video game before 2027? Yes refers to: Video Game | 40.0% | 30.5% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| Will Dodge release a new Challenger Hellcat before 2027? Yes refers to: Dodge Challenger Hellcat | 17.0% | 11.2% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? Yes refers to: Hires | 33.0% | 17.5% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
| Will BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028? Yes refers to: Fully Electric M3 | 81.0% | 85.4% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| New Xbox this year? Yes refers to: a new Xbox video game console | 16.0% | 7.6% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 27.0% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium this year? Yes refers to: a new reference in titanium | 3.0% | 1.9% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year? Yes refers to: a steel Nautilus reference | 10.0% | 12.8% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next CEO of X? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 15.0% | 50.2% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Will Sony Pictures Animation release 'KPop Demon Hunters 2" before 2027? Yes refers to: KPop Demon Hunters 2 | 8.0% | 8.0% | Med | 65 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? Top outcome: Rafael Grossi | 56.0% | 56.9% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Courts consider Apple a monopoly? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 30.0% | 35.3% | Med | 65 | Refresh |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 15.0% | 10.6% | Med | 62 | Refresh |
| How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? Top outcome: At least $100 | 83.0% | 70.0% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO? Top outcome: Marianne Lake | 49.0% | 24.5% | Med | 59 | Refresh |
| When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 30.8% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| 8.0% | 1.9% | Med | 72 | Refresh | |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | 37 | Refresh |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 26.6% | Med | 60 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (35)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Citigroup
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Bank of America
Market Model 94.0% 90.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Hims subscribers in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 74.0% 74.0%
Tesla production in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 79.0% 79.0%
SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Airbnb bookings in Q1 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
CAVA restaurants in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Marriott total rooms in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Lyft total rides in Q1 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Uber Trips in Q1? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Roblox hours engaged in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Meta headcount in Q1? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 94.0% | 92.1% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Will SpaceX acquire Cursor this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 74.0% | 74.0% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 79.0% | 79.0% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| One-time layoff greater than Block (4,000 employees) in tech? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 96.0% | 96.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — |
