Costco total cardholders in Q3

Costco's Q3 cardholder growth is expected, yet potentially moderated. Total cardholder growth for the third quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be positive, though potentially less robust than historical trends, showing an upward trajectory with some risk of sign-up moderation. This outlook is primarily influenced by sustained weak consumer sentiment and a significant rise in gasoline prices during the first half of 2026, which collectively reinforce Costco's savings narrative alongside very high existing member renewal rates ^{[2][4][3][5][6][7]}. During H1 2026, regular gasoline prices increased sharply, reaching $4.10/gal by April, while the U. Michigan consumer sentiment index remained critically low at 49.8 in April ^[1][4][2]. This combination of higher fuel costs and subdued sentiment likely boosts Costco's perceived value, even as it might temper new discretionary member acquisitions ^[1][4][2]. Furthermore, Costco's comparable sales have been notably impacted by gasoline price changes, with their April sales release explicitly segmenting 'comparable sales excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices,' indicating that gas price fluctuations significantly affect Costco’s commercial activities and member value proposition ^[8].

Membership renewals remain resilient, supported by elevated gasoline costs. Costco's renewal metrics appear resilient in the near term, with Q2 fiscal 2026 reporting membership fees of $1,355M and a U.S./Canada renewal rate around 92.1% ^[3][5][9]. Management commentary attributes any slight softness in renewal rates to a mix shift towards digital sign-ups, which typically have lower renewal rates, rather than a decline in overall loyalty ^[3][5][9]. Rising gas prices tend to enhance Costco's membership economics and value perception, given that Costco sells gasoline approximately $0.20/gal cheaper than nearby stations ^[6][7]. CFO remarks suggest that elevated gas prices underscore Costco's incremental value by motivating shoppers to make an "extra mile" trip, implying that Q3 sign-ups and renewals may be bolstered during periods of high or volatile pump prices ^[6][7].

Costco demonstrated significant membership growth and high renewal rates. The company reported robust membership growth and high renewal rates throughout fiscal year 2025 and the first half of fiscal year 2026. By the end of FY2025, Costco recorded 68.3 million individual paid memberships, with renewal rates reaching approximately 92% in the U.S. and around 90% globally ^[1]. This strong performance continued into Q1 FY2026, where U.S. and Canada renewal rates remained very high at 92.2%, and worldwide rates were 89.7% ^[2][3]. Paid memberships reached 81.4 million in Q1 FY2026, representing a 5.2% year-over-year increase, with total cardholders growing to 145.9 million, marking a 5.1% year-over-year rise ^[2][3].

Sam's Club reported positive trends, but direct comparison is limited. Sam's Club also indicated positive membership trends, with management noting stable renewal rates and year-over-year increases in both membership and membership income during fiscal year 2026's Q3 ^[4]. However, the available research did not disclose specific numeric renewal rate percentages for Sam's Club for fiscal year 2025 or the first half of fiscal year 2026. This absence of data prevents a direct quantitative comparison of renewal rates between Sam's Club and Costco for the specified period ^[4].

Costco's member acquisition trends are expected to be steady-to-positive. Placer.ai research published on March 10, 2026, indicates a directional expectation for steady-to-positive member acquisition for Q3 2026. This analysis, based on visit trends rather than directly predicting total cardholders, suggests growth rather than a decline in membership ^[1][2].

Enhanced loyalty drives continuous visit increases despite stricter policies. This positive outlook is supported by observations that recent fee increases and stricter member-only access policies have not diminished demand. Instead, Costco has experienced continuous increases in both total and same-store visits from late 2025 into early 2026 ^[2]. This suggests that membership friction may be enhancing loyalty rather than acting as a deterrent to traffic. Furthermore, foot-traffic data correlates with enhanced loyalty and engagement, noting substantial year-over-year growth in both total and same-store visits through the latter half of 2025 and into January ^[1][2].

Costco recently increased membership fees across all tiers effective September 2024. The membership fee increase went into effect on September 1, 2024, coinciding with renewals starting that month. This adjustment raised the cost for Gold Star, Business, and Business Add-on memberships from $60 to $65, and Executive memberships from $120 to $130 ^[1][2].

Lagging renewal rate impacts by Q3 2026 are expected to be minimal. Historical patterns indicate that the full effect of such fee increases typically takes approximately 23 months to fully roll through ^[3]. By Q3 2026, roughly 22 months after the September 2024 effective renewal date, the timing falls within or near the late part of a two-year lag window, similar to the 2017 fee hike ^[3][1]. During the 2017 increase, Costco's US/Canada renewal rates consistently held around 90–91%, with commentators not anticipating a significant change ^[4][5]. Therefore, any lagging effects on renewal rates from the 2024 increase are anticipated to be limited, manifesting as a small and potentially difficult-to-detect downside compared to the baseline, rather than a sudden, dramatic step-change ^[3][1].

Costco's digital initiatives boost cardholder growth and enhance member retention. Costco's strategic digital initiatives, including the Costco Next program and significant enhancements to its mobile app, are projected to drive continued growth in total cardholders and improve retention through fiscal year 2026 ^{[5][6][4][2][1][3]}. These efforts are designed to elevate the membership value, minimize shopping friction, and create a seamless integration between physical and digital shopping experiences for members ^[5][7][4].

The Costco Next program expands product offerings, attracting new members. This program offers members exclusive discounted products directly from third-party suppliers via CostcoNext.com, expanding product availability beyond traditional in-warehouse and Costco.com selections ^{[8][9][5][10]}. This initiative aims to increase the overall value proposition of a Costco membership, appealing to new cardholders seeking diverse offerings and unique deals, while also strengthening member loyalty by continuously adding value and differentiating Costco's membership from competitors ^{[5][8][9][10][6]}. However, it is important to note that purchases made through Costco Next currently do not qualify for Executive Member benefits or the 2% reward calculation ^[10].

Enhanced mobile app engagement and digital infrastructure drive strong member growth. Improvements to the mobile app are significantly contributing to member engagement and 'lock-in' by bridging physical and digital shopping experiences with planned features such as 'pay ahead for the pharmacy' and 'ordering cakes' ^[4]. The app already provides convenience through account management, online shopping, and a digital membership card for faster in-store checkout ^[7][4]. Costco reported a substantial increase in app traffic, over 40%, alongside a 21% rise in digital comparable sales during Q1 FY2026 (ending November 30, 2025) ^[4][2]. Investments in digital infrastructure, including the Costco Digital Wallet and automated pay stations, are part of the FY2026 capital expenditure to enhance productivity and member experience ^[1][2]. As of the end of Q2 FY2026 (February 28, 2026), Costco's total cardholders reached 145.9 million, a 5.1% year-over-year increase, with robust renewal rates of 92.3% in the US and Canada and 89.7% worldwide ^[1][2][3]. The September 2024 membership fee increase had no negative impact on renewal rates and boosted membership fee income by 13.6% in Q2 FY2026 ^{[1][6][11][12][13]}. Additionally, plans to open 28 net new locations in fiscal 2026 further support new member acquisition ^[11]. Based on these factors, Costco is well-positioned for continued cardholder growth through Q3 2026 ^{[14][1][2][3]}.

Costco's membership model continues to demonstrate robust growth, with total cardholders reaching 147.2 million at the end of Q2 FY2026, representing a 4.7% increase year-over-year ^[1][2]. Paid household members grew by 4.8% to 82.1 million, and Executive Memberships increased by 9.5% to 40.4 million, contributing significantly to profitability by accounting for approximately 75.8% of worldwide sales ^[1][2]. Membership fee income surged 13.6% to $1.355 billion in Q2 FY2026, partly due to a membership fee increase implemented in September 2024 ^[1][3][4]. Renewal rates remain high at 92.1% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% worldwide ^[1][3][5]. Bullish catalysts include strong and consistent membership fee income growth, successful global expansion with plans to open 28 to 35 net new warehouses globally in fiscal year 2026, robust digital engagement, and a demographic shift towards younger members, with nearly half of new members being under 40 ^{[1][6][3][7][8][9][5][4][10][11][12][2]}. Prediction markets indicate a strong likelihood of total cardholders exceeding 147 million or even 148 million for Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 ^[13][14].

Conversely, potential bearish catalysts include a slight slowdown in paid membership growth rate ^[3] and a slight decline of 10 basis points in renewal rates observed in Q1 FY2026, partly attributed to an increase in new online members who have shown marginally lower renewal rates ^[12][3][15]. The company's high stock valuation means that any minor disappointment in key metrics could lead to a negative market reaction ^[3][16][15]. Increased competition from other wholesale clubs and e-commerce platforms could also impact membership acquisition and retention ^{[1][8][4][10]}. Costco is expected to officially release its Q3 FY2026 earnings, including membership figures, on Thursday, May 28, 2026, after market close ^{[17][18][19][20][15][21]}.