Above 9%
Market Model 4.0% 5.0%
Above 3%
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
KPIs Markets
Active Markets (36)
Above $156 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Above $158 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Above 368 thousand
Market Model 31.0% 26.8%
Above 377 thousand
Market Model 12.0% 8.0%
Above 12.5%
Market Model 10.0% 0.0%
Above 12%
Market Model 16.0% 0.0%
Above $60 billion
Market Model 40.0% 15.0%
Above $70 billion
Market Model 13.0% 3.0%
Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Kalshi
Above 16 billion
Market Model 67.0% 61.1%
Above 15.4 billion
Market Model 97.0% 94.0%
Above -5%
Market Model 38.0% 47.6%
Above -6%
Market Model 54.0% 59.1%
Above 11.6 billion
Market Model 50.0% 77.7%
Above 11.8 billion
Market Model 39.0% 56.4%
Above 16%
Market Model 35.0% 24.7%
Above 14%
Market Model 56.0% 29.8%
Above 1.01 billion
Market Model 85.0% 82.4%
Above 1.04 billion
Market Model 52.0% 46.2%
Above 1.6 billion
Market Model 64.0% 40.8%
Above 1.5 billion
Market Model 96.0% 89.5%
Above $220
Market Model 79.0% 79.0%
Above $225
Market Model 53.0% 78.0%
Above 5.2 million
Market Model 76.0% 35.0%
Above 5.4 million
Market Model 55.0% 25.0%
Above 110 thousand
Market Model 78.0% 89.9%
Above 108 thousand
Market Model 92.0% 89.9%
Above 520
Market Model 39.0% 15.0%
Above 505
Market Model 92.0% 97.0%
Above 186 million
Market Model 60.0% 51.6%
Above 180 million
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
Above 1.65 million
Market Model 81.0% 72.3%
Tesla headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 130000
Market Model 84.0% 81.9%
Above 140000
Market Model 46.0% 41.1%
Above 1.75 million
Market Model 46.0% 28.6%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 17.0% 8.1%
Above 316 million
Market Model 46.0% 27.0%
Above 328 million
Market Model 12.0% 5.5%
Above 800 million
Market Model 91.0% 91.0%
Above 810 million
Market Model 82.0% 84.0%
Spotify headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 7400
Market Model 15.0% 3.4%
Above 7300
Market Model 31.0% 3.6%
Above 41800
Market Model 9.0% 2.0%
Above 42000
Market Model 7.0% 1.0%
Above 3%
Market Model 82.0% 83.0%
Above 5%
Market Model 33.0% 14.0%
Above 54.5 billion
Market Model 96.0% 62.3%
Above 61 billion
Market Model 6.0% 2.1%
Meta headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 65000
Market Model 87.0% 85.7%
Above 77000
Market Model 19.0% 8.0%
Above 3.68 billion
Market Model 79.0% 91.9%
Above 3.72 billion
Market Model 56.0% 53.3%
Above 227 million
Market Model 62.0% 65.0%
Above 229 million
Market Model 33.0% 35.0%
Above 62 million
Market Model 2.0% 4.2%
Above 60 million
Market Model 8.0% 8.5%
Above 2.15 million
Market Model 31.0% 17.6%
Above 2 million
Market Model 66.0% 56.2%
Above $92 billion
Market Model 6.0% 9.7%
Above $91 billion
Market Model 1.0% 16.4%
Above 900 thousand
Market Model 3.0% 2.7%
Above 910 thousand
Market Model 10.0% 2.7%
Above 4320
Market Model 97.0% 98.8%
Above 4300
Market Model 95.0% 98.8%
Above 97.3 million
Market Model 79.0% 68.3%
Above 97.1 million
Market Model 93.0% 86.2%
Above 620
Market Model 80.0% 78.0%
Above 560
Market Model 90.0% 84.3%
Above 30.2 million
Market Model 45.0% 87.6%
Above 30 million
Market Model 53.0% 90.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Outfitters comparable sales in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | High | $1 | Refresh |
| Sea Limited Shopee GMV in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $156 billion | 0.0% | 0.1% | High | $0 | Refresh |
| Starbucks headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 368 thousand | 31.0% | 26.8% | High | $6,482.68 | Refresh |
| Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 12.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% | High | $27,519.52 | Refresh |
| Robinhood event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $60 billion | 40.0% | 15.0% | High | $7,423.79 | Refresh |
| Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16 billion | 67.0% | 61.1% | High | $1,981.7 | Refresh |
| Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -5% | 38.0% | 47.6% | High | $3,649.51 | Refresh |
| Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 11.6 billion | 50.0% | 77.7% | High | $2,276.84 | Refresh |
| Meta advertisement impressions growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16% | 35.0% | 24.7% | High | $1,094.35 | Refresh |
| Lyft total rides in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.01 billion | 85.0% | 82.4% | High | $1,456.21 | Refresh |
| Home Depot customer transactions in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.6 billion | 64.0% | 40.8% | High | $786.92 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $220 | 79.0% | 79.0% | High | $6,681.4 | Refresh |
| Robinhood gold subscribers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5.2 million | 76.0% | 35.0% | High | $6,671.91 | Refresh |
| Chipotle headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 110 thousand | 78.0% | 89.9% | High | $4,891.31 | Refresh |
| CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 520 | 39.0% | 15.0% | High | $3,572.85 | Refresh |
| United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 186 million | 60.0% | 51.6% | High | $22,645.14 | Refresh |
| Tesla total production in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.9 million | 10.0% | 9.0% | High | $9,803.92 | Refresh |
| Tesla headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 130000 | 84.0% | 81.9% | High | $12,624.53 | Refresh |
| Tesla total deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.75 million | 46.0% | 28.6% | High | $55,224.85 | Refresh |
| Spotify premium subscribers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 316 million | 46.0% | 27.0% | High | $10,290.24 | Refresh |
| Spotify total monthly active users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 800 million | 91.0% | 91.0% | High | $17,193.67 | Refresh |
| Spotify headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 7400 | 15.0% | 3.4% | High | $92.58 | Refresh |
| Starbucks total global stores in 2026 Top outcome: Above 41800 | 9.0% | 2.0% | High | $85,916.28 | Refresh |
| Starbucks comparable transactions growth in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3% | 82.0% | 83.0% | High | $1,258.8 | Refresh |
| Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026 Top outcome: Above 54.5 billion | 96.0% | 62.3% | High | $42,889.49 | Refresh |
| Meta headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 65000 | 87.0% | 85.7% | High | $46,885.99 | Refresh |
| Meta family daily active people in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.68 billion | 79.0% | 91.9% | High | $4,643.54 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 227 million | 62.0% | 65.0% | High | $2,992.77 | Refresh |
| Grab monthly transacting users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 62 million | 2.0% | 4.2% | High | $27,028.73 | Refresh |
| Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2.15 million | 31.0% | 17.6% | High | $32,251.32 | Refresh |
| eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above $92 billion | 6.0% | 9.7% | High | $50,730.22 | Refresh |
| Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand | 3.0% | 2.7% | High | $10,235.25 | Refresh |
| Chipotle total restaurant count in 2026 Top outcome: Above 4320 | 97.0% | 98.8% | High | $17,681.21 | Refresh |
| Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 2026 Top outcome: Above 97.3 million | 79.0% | 68.3% | High | $38,549.69 | Refresh |
| Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 620 | 80.0% | 78.0% | High | $37,217.3 | Refresh |
| Robinhood funded customers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 30.2 million | 45.0% | 87.6% | High | $140,188.95 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (21)
Yes
Market Model — —
Hims subscribers in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Airbnb bookings in Q1 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
CAVA restaurants in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 80 million
Market Model 34.0% 29.5%
above 78 million
Market Model 81.0% 60.8%
Marriott total rooms in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Lyft total rides in Q1 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Uber Trips in Q1? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Roblox hours engaged in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Meta headcount in Q1? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $9,913.74 | ||
| — | — | High | $8,000.52 | ||
| — | — | High | $232,693.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $81,959.06 | ||
| — | — | High | $131,495.46 | ||
| — | — | High | $62,787.58 | ||
| Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 Top outcome: Above 80 million | 34.0% | 29.5% | High | $1,872.61 | |
| — | — | High | $3,497.47 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,116.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $190,568.93 | ||
| — | — | Med | $150,467.8 | ||
| — | — | High | $10,293.74 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,122.96 | ||
| — | — | High | $342,473.47 | ||
| — | — | High | $23,804.66 | ||
| — | — | High | $225,903.97 | ||
| — | — | High | $500,553.82 | ||
| — | — | High | $146,188.21 | ||
| — | — | Med | $546,589 | ||
| — | — | Med | $67,904 | ||
| — | — | Med | $357,769 |
