Above 42,400
Market Model 85.0% 20.0%
Above 42,600
Market Model 82.0% 18.0%
KPIs Markets
Company KPI Tracker Market-implied forecasts for deliveries, subscribers, orders and DAU, against Octagon's own estimate.Active Markets (40)
Above -4.0%
Market Model 93.0% 20.0%
Above -3.0%
Market Model 94.0% 20.0%
Above 845
Market Model 5.0% 0.0%
Above 815
Market Model 91.0% 0.1%
Above 151 million
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 152 million
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 2.0% 0.1%
Above 2.5%
Market Model 4.0% 0.2%
Above 6.5%
Market Model 92.0% 0.7%
Above 4.5%
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Above 5%
Market Model 45.0% 20.0%
Above 9%
Market Model 4.0% 5.0%
Above $166 billion
Market Model 41.0% 0.1%
Above $164 billion
Market Model 60.0% 0.1%
Above 368 thousand
Market Model 6.0% 26.8%
Above 377 thousand
Market Model 12.0% 8.0%
Above 12.5%
Market Model 19.0% 0.0%
Above 12%
Market Model 33.0% 0.0%
Above $80 billion
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Above $75 billion
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Kalshi
Above 16 billion
Market Model 59.0% 61.1%
Above 15.4 billion
Market Model 99.0% 94.0%
Above -6%
Market Model 43.0% 59.1%
Above -5%
Market Model 2.0% 47.6%
Above 11.6 billion
Market Model 73.0% 77.7%
Above 11.8 billion
Market Model 46.0% 56.4%
Above 14%
Market Model 23.0% 29.8%
Above 16%
Market Model 16.0% 24.7%
Above 1.01 billion
Market Model 85.0% 82.4%
Above 1.04 billion
Market Model 54.0% 46.2%
Above 1.6 billion
Market Model 62.0% 40.8%
Above 1.62 billion
Market Model 53.0% 8.9%
Above $220
Market Model 97.0% 79.0%
Above $225
Market Model 91.0% 78.0%
Above 5.2 million
Market Model 80.0% 35.0%
Above 5.4 million
Market Model 56.0% 25.0%
Above 110 thousand
Market Model 94.0% 89.9%
Above 108 thousand
Market Model 94.0% 89.9%
Above 515
Market Model 63.0% 66.3%
Above 520
Market Model 39.0% 15.0%
Above 186 million
Market Model 89.0% 51.6%
Above 188 million
Market Model 69.0% 35.6%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 25.0% 9.0%
Above 1.85 million
Market Model 58.0% 15.9%
Tesla headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 130000
Market Model 90.0% 81.9%
Above 140000
Market Model 45.0% 41.1%
Above 1.75 million
Market Model 80.0% 28.6%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 21.0% 8.1%
Above 316 million
Market Model 81.0% 27.0%
Above 328 million
Market Model 62.0% 5.5%
Above 800 million
Market Model 94.0% 91.0%
Above 810 million
Market Model 91.0% 84.0%
Spotify headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 7350
Market Model 15.0% 3.5%
Above 7300
Market Model 33.0% 3.6%
Above 54.5 billion
Market Model 95.0% 62.3%
Above 61 billion
Market Model 6.0% 2.1%
Meta headcount in 2026 Kalshi
Above 65000
Market Model 83.0% 85.7%
Above 77000
Market Model 7.0% 8.0%
Above 3.72 billion
Market Model 33.0% 53.3%
Above 3.68 billion
Market Model 79.0% 91.9%
Above 229 million
Market Model 78.0% 35.0%
Above 227 million
Market Model 90.0% 65.0%
Above 62 million
Market Model 8.0% 4.2%
Above 56.5 million
Market Model 21.0% 65.8%
Above 2 million
Market Model 83.0% 56.2%
Above 1.8 million
Market Model 99.0% 98.6%
Above $92 billion
Market Model 43.0% 9.7%
Above $91 billion
Market Model 69.0% 16.4%
Above 900 thousand
Market Model 10.0% 2.7%
Above 910 thousand
Market Model 9.0% 2.7%
Above 4320
Market Model 97.0% 98.8%
Above 4300
Market Model 95.0% 98.8%
Above 97.4 million
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Above 98.1 million
Market Model 7.0% 3.0%
Above 680
Market Model 4.0% 9.3%
Above 660
Market Model 9.0% 27.7%
Above 30.2 million
Market Model 12.0% 87.6%
Above 30 million
Market Model 9.0% 90.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starbucks total global stores in 2027 Top outcome: Above 42,400 | 85.0% | 20.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Starbucks comparable transactions growth in 2027 Top outcome: Above -4.0% | 93.0% | 20.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Urban Outfitters total stores in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 845 | 5.0% | 0.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Costco total cardholders in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 151 million | 0.0% | 12.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Chipotle comparable sales growth in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% | High | — | Refresh |
| CAVA same restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 6.5% | 92.0% | 0.7% | High | — | Refresh |
| Urban Outfitters comparable sales in fiscal 2027 Top outcome: Above 5% | 45.0% | 20.0% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Sea Limited Shopee GMV in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $166 billion | 41.0% | 0.1% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Starbucks headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 368 thousand | 6.0% | 26.8% | High | 58 | Refresh |
| Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 12.5% | 19.0% | 0.0% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Robinhood event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $80 billion | 1.0% | 1.0% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Uber trips in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 16 billion | 59.0% | 61.1% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above -6% | 43.0% | 59.1% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Zyn US shipment volume (pouches) in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 11.6 billion | 73.0% | 77.7% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Meta advertisement impressions growth in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 14% | 23.0% | 29.8% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| Lyft total rides in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.01 billion | 85.0% | 82.4% | High | 54 | Refresh |
| Home Depot customer transactions in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.6 billion | 62.0% | 40.8% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above $220 | 97.0% | 79.0% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Robinhood gold subscribers in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 5.2 million | 80.0% | 35.0% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Chipotle headcount in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 110 thousand | 94.0% | 89.9% | High | 52 | Refresh |
| CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026 Top outcome: Above 515 | 63.0% | 66.3% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 186 million | 89.0% | 51.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Tesla total production in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.9 million | 25.0% | 9.0% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| Tesla headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 130000 | 90.0% | 81.9% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Tesla total deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.75 million | 80.0% | 28.6% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| Spotify premium subscribers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 316 million | 81.0% | 27.0% | High | 53 | Refresh |
| Spotify total monthly active users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 800 million | 94.0% | 91.0% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Spotify headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 7350 | 15.0% | 3.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026 Top outcome: Above 54.5 billion | 95.0% | 62.3% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Meta headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 65000 | 83.0% | 85.7% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Meta family daily active people in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.72 billion | 33.0% | 53.3% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 229 million | 78.0% | 35.0% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Grab monthly transacting users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 62 million | 8.0% | 4.2% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2 million | 83.0% | 56.2% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above $92 billion | 43.0% | 9.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand | 10.0% | 2.7% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| Chipotle total restaurant count in 2026 Top outcome: Above 4320 | 97.0% | 98.8% | High | 58 | Refresh |
| Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 2026 Top outcome: Above 97.4 million | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 680 | 4.0% | 9.3% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Robinhood funded customers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 30.2 million | 12.0% | 87.6% | High | 62 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (26)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Hims subscribers in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla production in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Airbnb bookings in Q1 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
CAVA restaurants in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Marriott total rooms in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Lyft total rides in Q1 2026 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Uber Trips in Q1? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Roblox hours engaged in Q1 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Meta headcount in Q1? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
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