95¢ or above
Market Model 31.0% 81.7%
105¢ or above
Market Model 96.0% 81.7%
Commodities Markets
Active Markets (5)
$4/MTok or below
Market Model 39.0% 22.5%
$3/MTok or below
Market Model 24.0% 16.4%
Crude Oil all time high by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 9.3%
$115.01 or above
Market Model 39.3% 41.6%
$180.01 or above
Market Model 14.2% 16.6%
79.99 or below
Market Model 76.0% 97.0%
69.99 or below
Market Model 50.0% 97.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026 Top outcome: 95¢ or above | 31.0% | 81.7% | Med | 65 | Refresh |
| How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026? Top outcome: $4/MTok or below | 39.0% | 22.5% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Crude Oil all time high by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 12.0% | 9.3% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: $115.01 or above | 39.3% | 41.6% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year? Top outcome: 79.99 or below | 76.0% | 97.0% | High | 72 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (53)
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| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | 80 | ||
| — | — | High | 65 | ||
| — | — | Med | 77 | ||
| — | — | High | 67 | ||
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