Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Short Answer
Current Henry Hub prices and near-term bullish targets indicate natural gas will likely remain above $1.599/MMBtu by September 25, 2026, an outcome the market prices at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has consistently priced in a high probability, ranging from 85% to 99%, of natural gas settling above the $2.999/MMBtu threshold on September 25, 2026. The contract has traded in a sideways pattern, reflecting a stable and strong consensus for a "Yes" outcome.
The provided information details the market's resolution rules but does not contain fundamental drivers such as inventory reports, weather forecasts, or production data. As a result, the minor price fluctuations within the established range cannot be linked to any specific causal events.
- Prices appear likely above $1.599, supported by current Henry Hub levels and bullish targets.
- Expert forecasts consistently project natural gas prices below $4.799/MMBtu.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.099 | 99.0% | 99.0% | Current Henry Hub prices and near-term bullish targets are consistently above this low threshold. |
| Above $0.999 | 89.0% | 99.0% | Current Henry Hub prices and near-term targets are consistently above this threshold. |
| Above $4.099 | 1.0% | 87.0% | Expert forecasts and market indicators place prices significantly below this level. |
| Above $2.099 | 99.0% | 96.0% | Current Henry Hub prices and near-term bullish targets are consistently above this low threshold. |
| Above $4.299 | 1.0% | 87.0% | Expert forecasts and market indicators place prices significantly below this level. |
Current Context
The September 25, 2026 natural gas price will settle at 5:00 PM EDT. This prediction-market contract resolves the 1-minute natural gas candlestick close, using Pyth and rounded to $0.001/MMBtu [1][2]. Kalshi specifies $2.999/MMBtu as a key threshold, with resolution Yes if the close exceeds this value [2]. Polymarket rules indicate the relevant CME trading session normally runs through 5:00 PM ET, supporting an end-of-session value [3]. No retrieved source provides a definitive market settlement for this future timestamp [4][5]. The best evidence-based estimate for Henry Hub is approximately $2.90/MMBtu, with an indicative range of $2.70–$3.10/MMBtu [6][7][4][5][8][3]. Confidence in this estimate is low-to-medium due to the absence of the exact CME quote and contemporaneous prediction-market odds [6][8][3]. EIA’s August 11, 2026 outlook forecast Henry Hub at $2.87/MMBtu in 3Q26, anticipating prices below $3.00/MMBtu until November due to high inventories [4]. Recent commentary placed October futures around $3.018–$3.052 and November around $3.187 [9][10]. An associated prediction market showed roughly 94% for reaching $3.00, 60% for $3.20, and 17% for $3.30 during the week ending September 25 [11]. However, available prediction market snapshots appear illiquid or stale and should not be treated as reliable probabilities [1][12].
Divergent forces are influencing the natural gas market outlook. Bearish pressure stems from record U.S. production, elevated storage, and reduced LNG feedgas demand [4][9][10][5]. EIA’s August 2026 forecast projected record U.S. marketed natural gas production averaging 122.5 Bcf/d for 2026, with a 2026 Henry Hub annual average of $3.44/MMBtu [13]. EIA’s September 2026 outlook indicated end-October 2026 working inventories of 3,969 Bcf, 5% above the 2021–2025 average [5]. Another market analysis cited approximately 113 Bcf/d output and a 30-35 Bcf storage-build risk [10]. Upside risks include persistent heat, LNG feedgas demand near 18 Bcf/d or higher, smaller-than-expected storage injections, Middle East/Persian Gulf disruptions, or tighter Russian-European gas flows [9][14][15][16]. Goldman Sachs noted European LNG had risen about 70% since July, forecasting €70/MWh in 4Q26 under gradual Persian Gulf normalization [15]. Russia has also lowered its 2026 natural gas production and export expectations [14].
The market context involves specific trading dynamics and data limitations. A key date is September 28, 2026, when the October NYMEX contract expires and November becomes the front month; this contract roll can create an apparent price jump unrelated to an underlying market move [9][10]. While CME identifies Henry Hub futures as the relevant benchmark and provides settlement data, retrieved excerpts do not expose a reliable September 25, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT settlement or a complete forward curve for that specific timestamp [8][17]. CFTC natural gas positioning data from June or July 2026 are not current enough to support a precise point forecast for the requested timestamp [18][19]. The actual value will be whatever Pyth publishes for the specified one-minute candle [4][9][10][6].
Sources (19)
- 1Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 2Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Kalshikalshi.com
- 3ПРИРОДНИЙ ГАЗ щодня вгору або внизpolymarket.com
- 4Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas - EIAeia.gov
- 5Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 6Short-Term Energy Outlook - EIAeia.gov
- 7https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/5btab.pdfeia.gov
- 8Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 9Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast — NG ($3.018) Breaks $3.00 for First Time Since July 8 on Heat and 18 Bcf/d LNG Demandtradingnews.com
- 10Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast — October NG ($2.84) Capped at $2.912 as Output Hits 113.2 Bcfd — $2.70 Targettradingnews.com
- 11Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of September 21 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 12Will the natural gas close price be above 1.099 USD/MMBtu on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — Kalshi Odds & Price | PredEdgeprededge.com
- 13United States on track for record natural gas production in 2026 - EIAeia.gov
- 14EXCLUSIVE: Russia cuts natural gas output, export forecasts | Reutersreuters.com
- 15Will European Gas Prices Keep Rising This Winter? | Goldman Sachsgoldmansachs.com
- 16EQT sees higher 2026 US natgas output on lower spending, CEO says | Reutersreuters.com
- 17Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 18CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - Natural Gas (Combined)cftc.gov
- 19CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - NYME (Combined)cftc.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $3.099
📈 September 24, 2026: 77.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 82.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the reported prediction market price movement was attributed to fundamental market factors rather than social media activity. The reported catalyst included increased weather-driven demand, sustained high LNG exports near 18 Bcf/d, and temporarily lower natural gas production, which collectively contributed to a narrowing storage surplus [1][2][3]. However, the specified 77.0 percentage point spike and the $3.099 threshold cannot be independently confirmed by the provided sources for September 24, 2026 [4][5]. Based on the available research, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver for this market movement.
📉 September 21, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 39.0% to 18.0%
What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified as a catalyst for the prediction market's price movement on September 21, 2026 [6][7][8][9]. The 21.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $3.099" outcome appears primarily driven by traditional market fundamentals for natural gas futures [6][10][11][12]. On September 21, 2026, natural gas futures declined due to moderating temperatures, easing weather-driven demand, lower oil prices, robust production, and high storage concerns, including temporarily reduced LNG export demand, causing October futures to settle down 2.6% at $2.836/MMBtu [10][11][12][6]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant to this price movement, which was clearly influenced by bearish macroeconomic and supply/demand indicators.
Outcome: Above $4.799
📈 September 23, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The asserted 84.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for natural gas above $4.799 on September 23, 2026, cannot be confirmed by the available CME, EIA, or Polymarket sources [13]. On September 23, 2026, Henry Hub natural gas prices reached an 11-week high of approximately $3.04-$3.05/MMBtu, significantly below $4.799, with documented increases attributed to cooler weather forecasts, lower production, and stronger LNG feedgas flows [14][15][2][3]. Consequently, without evidence of the claimed price movement, social media cannot be identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even a factor.
Outcome: Above $3.999
📈 September 22, 2026: 79.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 79.0%
What happened: The reported "79.0 percentage point spike" for natural gas prices above $3.999 on September 22, 2026, is not supported by available information; front-month natural gas prices were trading closer to $2.92-$2.97 with a daily gain of approximately 4.55% [16][17][18]. The primary driver for the actual, smaller price movement was a repricing based on hotter U.S. weather forecasts in the South-Central U.S. and anticipated declines in natural gas output [16][18]. No significant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives correlated with the described, unverified spike. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as the reported price movement did not align with market realities.
Sources (18)
- 1US natgas prices rise on cooler weather, lower output - Markets - Business Recorderbrecorder.com
- 2US Natural Gas Prices Reach Highest Since July 8 on Hot Weather, LNG Demand - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
- 3Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast — NG ($3.018) Breaks $3.00 for First Time Since July 8 on Heat and 18 Bcf/d LNG Demandtradingnews.com
- 4Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Quotes - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 5Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 6Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 7EIA Press Release (08/11/2026): EIA expects highest natural gas inventories in a decade heading into wintereia.gov
- 8United States on track for record natural gas production in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 9Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 10US natgas futures fall 3% as temperatures moderate, oil prices easelongbridge.com
- 11Market Watch: Easing Demand Drags Nymex Lower | Energy Intelligenceenergyintel.com
- 12Natural Gas Forecast: $3 Resistance Keeps Prices Rangebound | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 13https://polymarket.com/event/ng-up-or-down-on-august-25-2026polymarket.com
- 14US natgas prices hit 11-week high on cooler weather, lower output | BOE Reportboereport.com
- 15Market Watch: Nymex Reaches 11-Week High As Storage Builds Slow | Energy Intelligenceenergyintel.com
- 16Natural Gas Contract Movements This Week - Sprague Energyspragueenergy.com
- 17US Natgas Prices Rise to Over 2-Week Hightradingeconomics.com
- 18Nat-Gas Surges on Hotter U.S. Weather Forecastsstocksbreaking.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on the natural gas price at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. A 'Yes' contract resolves if the price is strictly above the contract's specified threshold, while a 'No' contract resolves if the price is at or below that threshold. The official settlement price will be determined by the Pyth Natural Gas 24/7 index (Index.NATGAS/USD).
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.099 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $1.299 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $1.599 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $1.699 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $1.799 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $1.899 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $1.999 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $2.099 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $2.199 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $2.299 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $2.399 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $2.499 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $2.699 | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above $2.899 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above $4.799 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 99% |
| Above $1.399 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $1.499 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| Above $2.999 | $0.93 | $0.14 | 97% |
| Above $2.599 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 96% |
| Above $2.799 | $1.00 | $0.08 | 96% |
| Above $4.999 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 95% |
| Above $0.999 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 89% |
| Above $3.099 | $0.80 | $0.51 | 82% |
| Above $4.899 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 75% |
| Above $3.299 | $0.22 | $0.86 | 63% |
| Above $3.199 | $0.43 | $0.65 | 50% |
| Above $1.199 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 22% |
| Above $5.299 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Above $5.499 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Above $5.799 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Above $3.499 | $0.03 | $0.99 | 11% |
| Above $3.399 | $0.08 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Above $4.199 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Above $4.399 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Above $3.999 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above $4.599 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above $3.599 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $3.699 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $3.799 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $3.899 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $4.099 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $4.299 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $4.499 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $4.699 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $5.099 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $5.199 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $5.399 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $5.599 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $5.699 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $5.899 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are strongly anticipating natural gas prices to be above $3.099 by September 25, 2026, reflected in an 82% probability for this outcome. While there is an even split (50%) on whether the price will exceed $3.199, a significant surge in confidence (up 30%) for prices to clear $3.299 suggests a strong bullish sentiment among many participants for a higher price point. This indicates that while $3.199 is a current point of uncertainty, many believe if that level is breached, the price will continue to rise substantially.
5. Trust Index
“Above $5.199” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score56Caution
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How do the 2026 natural gas price forecasts from the EIA and Goldman Sachs differ in their assumptions about U.S. LNG export capacity and European demand?
| EIA 2026 Henry Hub Average | $3.67/MMBtu (EIA [1][2]) |
|---|---|
| EIA 2026 Supply vs Demand Growth | Supply growth to exceed demand growth by 0.5 Bcf/d (EIA [1][2]) |
| Goldman Sachs 2026 Price for Production | roughly $4.60/MMBtu (Goldman Sachs [3]) |
The EIA and Goldman Sachs present divergent 2026 natural gas price forecasts, primarily due to differing assumptions about the impact of U.S. LNG export capacity growth on domestic supply-demand balances and the role of European demand. The EIA's framework implies a lower near-term U.S. price distribution, anticipating that increased production and inventories will adequately offset export expansion. In contrast, Goldman Sachs forecasts a higher price distribution, believing that the ramp-up of export terminals will generate sufficient feedgas demand to necessitate materially stronger U.S. prices [1][3][2].
The EIA's 2026 outlook reflects a comparatively supply-comfortable U.S. market. Its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects the 2026 Henry Hub average at $3.67/MMBtu, with supply growth expected to exceed demand growth by 0.5 Bcf/d [1][2]. The EIA forecasts a 9% increase in LNG exports, equating to 1.3 Bcf/d, driven by new capacity coming online [1]. However, the latest operating view indicates a constraint on additional capacity growth, with second-half 2026 LNG exports estimated at 17.3 Bcf/d and third-quarter 2026 at 16.5 Bcf/d [2]. Regarding European demand, EIA/IEA-style assumptions emphasize demand destruction resulting from renewables and price effects; the IEA projects European gas demand to decline by more than 2% in 2026, suggesting Europe will absorb LNG without functioning as a major structural demand-growth engine [3][4][5].
In contrast, Goldman Sachs utilizes a tighter, more export-demand-sensitive assumption for the U.S. market. They view expanding U.S. LNG exports as integral to a global LNG supply wave anticipated to increase by over 50% between 2024 and 2030 [3]. Goldman Sachs forecasts that higher U.S. exports will tighten domestic balances, requiring approximately $4.60/MMBtu in 2026 to incentivize necessary production growth [3]. For European prices, Goldman Sachs projects TTF at about €29/MWh ($10/MMBtu) in 2026, explicitly expecting European prices to be lower than U.S. gas prices and a narrowing of the TTF-Henry Hub spread [3][4][5]. The key difference in demand perspective is not a belief in permanently stronger European consumption, but rather the expectation that expanding global LNG supply will eventually outpace demand, positioning Europe as the balancing market with potential for storage congestion and U.S. export cancellations later in the decade [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas - EIAeia.gov
- 2USA EIA Raises Henry Hub Price Forecast for 2026, 2027 | Rigzonerigzone.com
- 3[PDF] 2026 Outlook: Ride the Power Race and Supply Wavesgoldmansachs.com
- 4Executive summary – Gas Market Report, Q1-2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org
- 5[PDF] Gas Market Report, Q3-2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
7. Based on long-range forecasts from NOAA, what is the likelihood of a strong El Niño or La Niña event during the 2025-2026 winter and what would be its projected impact on U.S. heating demand?
| DJF 2025-2026 La Niña Probability | 51% (NOAA [1][2]) |
|---|---|
| OND 2025-2026 La Niña Probability | 71% (NOAA [1][2]) |
| US Heating Demand Forecast vs Prior Winter | Approximately 5% colder (American Gas Association [3][1]) |
NOAA predicts a weak La Niña for the 2025-2026 winter. Long-range forecasts from NOAA for the 2025-2026 winter indicated a favored weak La Niña, with a 51% probability for December-January-February (DJF) compared to a 48% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions [1][2]. An earlier forecast for October-November-December (OND) had an even higher probability of 71% for La Niña [2]. NOAA anticipated a transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions in January-February-March 2026, with a 61% chance, and the forecast showed no evidence of a strong La Niña or strong El Niño event for this period [1][2].
Regional impacts of a weak La Niña suggest varied winter conditions. This projected weak La Niña pattern generally implies warmer-than-normal conditions across significant portions of the U.S., including the South, East Coast, Southeast, Gulf, Southwest, and California [1][4][5]. Conversely, relatively cooler and wetter conditions were favored in the northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, northern Rockies, and Pacific Northwest [1][4][5]. The impacts were specifically noted as variable and less conventional due to the weak nature of the event, resulting in a mixed signal for overall U.S. heating demand [1][4][5].
AGA projects increased heating demand despite varied regional forecasts. Despite the mixed regional signals, the American Gas Association (AGA) anticipated that the continuation of La Niña would contribute to higher heating demand in the latter half of winter [3][1]. The AGA projected the lower 48 states to experience overall conditions approximately 5% colder than the preceding winter [3][1]. While heating demand is a significant variable for natural gas prices, the outcome is not solely determined by ENSO, as other factors such as LNG exports, supply levels, and wholesale market conditions also influence benchmark prices [3][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Winter 2025-26 Outlook - National Weather Serviceweather.gov
- 2NOAA: La Niña Likelihood Increases For All Of Winter 2025/2026unofficialnetworks.com
- 3[PDF] 2025-2026 Winter Heating Outlook - American Gas Associationaga.org
- 4El Nino and La Nina Information - National Weather Serviceweather.gov
- 5Maps show NOAA's new winter forecast for the U.S. - KPAXkpax.com
- 6Colder winter weather increases our home heating... - EIAeia.gov
8. How do the EIA's long-term projections for U.S. natural gas production and storage through 2026 support or contradict the market consensus of prices remaining below $3.50/MMBtu?
| 2026 Henry Hub Price Forecast | $3.44/MMBtu (August EIA STEO) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Dry-Gas Production | 111.7 Bcf/d (September 2026 EIA outlook) [2][3] |
| End-Oct 2026 Storage | 5% above five-year average (EIA forecast) [2][3][1] |
EIA forecasts generally support natural gas prices staying below $3.50/MMBtu. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) long-term projections largely align with the market consensus that U.S. natural gas prices are more likely to remain below $3.50/MMBtu as of September 25, 2026 [2][3][1]. This outlook is primarily supported by forecasts for record production and elevated storage levels. Specifically, the August EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projected an average Henry Hub price of $3.44/MMBtu for 2026, anticipating record dry-gas production reaching 111.7 Bcf/d in 2026 and end-October 2026 storage levels approximately 5% above the five-year average, or 3,985 Bcf [2][3][1]. Supply growth is expected to exceed domestic demand, with additional gas largely absorbed by exports [2][3].
Despite broad support, several factors introduce uncertainty to the price outlook. The August STEO's forecast of $3.44/MMBtu is notably close to the $3.50/MMBtu threshold, indicating a degree of uncertainty [2][3][1]. Earlier EIA projections, such as the June 2026 short-term outlook, were more bullish, having predicted an annual average of $3.60/MMBtu for 2026 [4][5][6]. Various factors could trigger short-lived price spikes, including unexpected weather events, shifts in liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand, operational outages, or discrepancies in storage data [2][3][1]. Furthermore, the prediction-market contract settles on a specific one-minute candle close at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026, which differs from the EIA's broader monthly or annual averages [7][8]. The retrieved evidence does not contain a reliable contemporaneous probability for the specific $3.50 threshold [7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Natural Gas Market Indicators – August 20, 2026aga.org
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas - EIAeia.gov
- 3US natural gas output, demand to hit record highs in 2026 and 2027...reuters.com
- 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - EIAeia.gov
- 5Annual Energy Outlook 2026 - EIAeia.gov
- 6AEO 2026 shows the growing importance of electricity affordability...synapse-energy.com
- 7Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — Kalshi Odds & Markets | PredEdgeprededge.com
- 8Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
9. What historical data is available to compare the Pyth Network's price feed against the NYMEX Henry Hub futures settlement, particularly around contract expiration dates?
| Pyth Benchmarks API Authorization | Required since August 18, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Resolution Time | 5:00 p.m. EDT on September 25, 2026 [3][4][5] |
| EIA NYMEX Futures Data Availability | Unavailable after April 5, 2024 [6] |
Historical data is available to compare the Pyth Network's price feed against NYMEX Henry Hub futures settlements, though it is crucial to recognize that a Pyth observation at 5:00 p.m. EDT differs from a NYMEX daily settlement [3]. While these historical comparisons can reveal empirical relationships and behavior around expiration dates, they do not guarantee an exact match between the two series at the market's specific resolution timestamp [1][7][3]. For Pyth historical data, Pyth Benchmarks offers querying feeds by Unix timestamp or over intervals up to 60 seconds [1]. As of August 18, 2026, the Benchmarks API requires an "Authorization: Bearer PYTH_API_KEY" header [1][2]. The Pyth Pro package within Pyth Terminal also includes Henry Hub natural-gas futures and provides historical chart data [8][9]. For NYMEX Henry Hub futures settlements, CME Group is the primary source [7], with NRG Energy additionally publishing monthly settlement prices [10]. The EIA also offers historical data, though futures prices are unavailable after April 5, 2024 [6].
To conduct a robust study focused on expiration dates, it is recommended to create an event table for each historical Henry Hub contract expiration [3][7][10]. This table should precisely detail the Pyth NATGAS one-minute close at the target timestamp, the corresponding CME contract settlement, contract identifiers (such as front-month or next-month), the timestamp and time zone, and both the absolute and percentage differences between the values [3][7][10]. Analyzing data within a window spanning five trading days before expiration through two trading days after can help identify critical roll, liquidity, and basis effects [10]. It is important to note that the prediction market resolves from the close of the one-minute candlestick at 5:00 p.m. EDT on September 25, 2026, specifically corresponding to the 4:59:00-4:59:59 p.m. interval, with the final settlement value rounded to three decimals [3][4][5].
Sources (10)
- 1Use Historical Price Data (Benchmarks) | Pyth Developer Hubdocs.pyth.network
- 2Pyth Benchmarks: Historical Price Data On Demandpyth.network
- 3Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Probabilidades na Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 5Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX) - EIAeia.gov
- 7Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 8Pyth Terminal - Developer Hubdocs.pyth.network
- 9Price Feeds | Pyth Developer Hubdocs.pyth.network
- 10NYMEX Natural Gas Historical Prices | NRG Energynrg.com
10. What potential disruptions to LNG supply chains, particularly from the Persian Gulf or Russia-Europe pipelines, could drive natural gas prices above EIA forecasts before September 2026?
| EIA Henry Hub Forecast (3Q 2026) | $2.87/MMBtu [1] |
|---|---|
| IEA Henry Hub Reference (2026) | Above $3.50/MMBtu [1] |
| Qatar/UAE Share of Global LNG Exports | Almost 20% [2] |
Significant global disruptions could drive natural gas prices above forecasts. The most impactful scenarios for natural gas prices to exceed EIA forecasts before September 2026 involve simultaneous or persistent LNG disruptions in the Persian Gulf coupled with pipeline or LNG stress in Europe [1]. While a prolonged outage at the Strait of Hormuz or Qatar's Ras Laffan could lead to a sharp repricing significantly above the $3-$3.50 baseline, a single Russian pipeline interruption is less likely to push U.S. Henry Hub far beyond predicted levels [1]. The EIA’s latest outlook projects Henry Hub to average $2.87/MMBtu in 3Q 2026, with futures through September 2026 remaining below $3.00/MMBtu, primarily due to record U.S. production and high inventories [1]. A material increase above this baseline before September 2026 would likely require a multi-week outage or shipping blockade, rather than just a brief price spike, particularly given the IEA's June forward-curve reference placing 2026 Henry Hub just above $3.50/MMBtu [1].
Persian Gulf LNG disruptions pose the most substantial supply risk. A renewed or prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz or Qatar's Ras Laffan represents the most significant upside supply-chain risk [2]. Qatar and the UAE collectively account for almost 20% of global LNG exports, with most Gulf LNG needing to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and alternative liquefaction capacity being nearly maximized [2]. Such a shock would indirectly affect U.S. gas prices through global LNG arbitrage, as Asian buyers would compete for flexible cargoes, European buyers would intensify efforts to refill storage, and stronger TTF/JKM prices would increase the netback for U.S. LNG exports, thereby boosting feedgas demand and tightening Henry Hub [3].
Russian pipeline risk has asymmetric impacts, amplified by EU storage. The impact of Russia-Europe pipeline risk is asymmetric because Russian pipeline deliveries to Europe have already sharply declined, and the EU is progressing towards a full phaseout [4]. Consequently, another cutoff would affect Europe more directly than the United States; however, it could still elevate Henry Hub prices by drawing additional LNG cargoes toward Europe and intensifying global competition [4]. European storage weakness is a crucial amplifying factor, with August reports indicating that EU inventories were below the five-year minimum and might struggle to exceed approximately 75% by late October [5]. Therefore, any new supply interruption before winter would lead to more aggressive LNG bidding in Europe [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas - EIAeia.gov
- 2Strait of Hormuz - About - IEAiea.org
- 3[PDF] The Iran War and Disruption to LNG Supply from the Persian Gulfoxfordenergy.org
- 4EXCLUSIVE: Russia cuts natural gas output, export forecasts - Reutersreuters.com
- 5Natural Gas Market Indicators – August 20, 2026aga.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The most important scheduled catalyst immediately before the event is the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report on Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 10:30 AM EDT [1][2][3]. This report is the last regular storage catalyst before the September 25 observation [3][4]. The prediction market does not resolve on the official NYMEX daily settlement; it resolves on the Pyth close of the one-minute natural-gas candlestick ending at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026, rounded to $0.001/MMBtu [5][6]. The relevant interval is the 4:59 PM candle [5][7]. CME's energy settlement procedure uses a 2:28-2:30 PM ET window for most contracts [8][9][7].
Bullish catalysts include a smaller-than-expected September 24 storage injection, persistent above-normal cooling demand, LNG feedgas staying near recent highs, and lower production [10][11]. Geopolitical or LNG disruptions also pose upside risk [10][11]. Near-term fundamentals into September 25 were moderately bullish: October futures had broken above $3.00, recent storage builds were below the five-year norm, and LNG feedgas demand was strong [12][13][14]. Analysts identified approximately $3.026 as a near-term upside trigger and $3.15-$3.35 as bullish targets [12][13][14]. The Kalshi-linked market priced Above $1.099 at 99% on September 22 [15][6]. Medium-term LNG export growth is a structural bullish catalyst; EIA expects 2026 supply growth to exceed demand by 0.5 Bcf/d and 2027 demand growth to exceed supply growth by 1.6 Bcf/d [16][17].
The main bearish counterweight is abundant supply: EIA projected 3,969-3,985 Bcf of working gas at October 31, 2026, about 5% above the five-year average, with production described as the key bearish variable [10][14][13][18][19][20]. EIA's August outlook expected Henry Hub spot below $3.00 through October and a 3Q26 average of $2.87/MMBtu [10][14][13][18][19]. Bearish catalysts include a large storage build, cooler weather revisions, production returning toward 111-113 Bcf/d or higher, and LNG outages that leave gas in the domestic market [10][21]. The best source-grounded base case for Henry Hub at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026, is below $3.00/MMBtu, with a practical forecast range of approximately $2.70-$3.00/MMBtu and a central estimate near $2.85-$2.90/MMBtu [10][18][22][19].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 25, 2026
- Expiration: October 02, 2026
- Closes: September 25, 2026
Sources (22)
- 1Sep 24, 2026 natural gas storage report: exact release timejmmresearch.com
- 2Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - EIAeia.gov
- 3Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Scheduleir.eia.gov
- 4Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - EIAir.eia.gov
- 5September 25, 2026: Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7Henry Hub Nat Gas (NG) Trading Hours, Specs & Expiry | NYMEXfuturesclock.com
- 8NYMEX WTI Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and RBOB Gasoline Futures Daily Settlement Procedurecmegroup.com
- 9Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Calendar - CME Groupcmegroup.com
- 10Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 11Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Iran Diplomacy Eases Crude Risk as LNG Stays Tight | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 12Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast — NG ($3.018) Breaks $3.00 for First Time Since July 8 on Heat and 18 Bcf/d LNG Demandtradingnews.com
- 13Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast — NG ($2.919) Rises After 44 Bcf Storage Build Beats Estimates — $3.026 Targettradingnews.com
- 14Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast — NG ($2.9255) Near 2-Week High on 44 Bcf Build and Shrinking Surplus — $3.15 Targettradingnews.com
- 15Natural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — Kalshi Odds & Markets | PredEdgeprededge.com
- 16We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 17U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 18[PDF] Short-Term Energy Outlook - EIAeia.gov
- 19Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 20EIA Press Release (08/11/2026): EIA expects highest natural gas inventories in a decade heading into wintereia.gov
- 21Natural Gas News: Cooler Forecasts Hit a Market Already Flooded With Supply | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 22Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNATGASW-26SEP1117-T4.899: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXNATGASW-26SEP1117-T4.799: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXNATGASW-26SEP1117-T4.699: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXNATGASW-26SEP1117-T4.599: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXNATGASW-26SEP1117-T4.499: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
